31/05/2021

(USA NYT) Big Setbacks Propel Oil Giants Toward A ‘Tipping Point’

New York Times - Somini Sengupta

A surprising mix of environmentalists, pension fund managers and big money investors have scored startling victories against oil and coal, opening new battle fronts in the climate fight.

Credit...Piroschka Van De Wouw/Reuters

A nun, an environmental lawyer, pension fund executives, and the world’s largest asset manager. These were among the unusual collection of rebels who claimed a series of startling victories this week against some of the world’s biggest and most influential fossil fuel companies.

From Houston to The Hague, they fought their battles in shareholder meetings and courtrooms, opening surprising fronts in an accelerating effort to force the world’s coal, oil and gas companies to address their central role in the climate crisis. And even as they came with strikingly disparate points of view — corporate shareholders, children’s rights advocates, environmentalists, thousands of Dutch citizens — they delivered a common underlying message: The time to start retreating from the fossil fuel business is no longer in the future, but now.

“These companies are facing pressure from regulators, investors, and now the courts to up their game,” said Will Nichols, head of environmental research at Maplecroft, a risk analysis firm. “That’s a big chunk of society, and it’s not a great look to be pushing back against all of that.”

The most dramatic turning point came in the Netherlands, where a court instructed Royal Dutch Shell, the largest private oil trader in the world and by far the largest company in the Netherlands itself, that it must sharply cut greenhouse gas emissions from all its global operations this decade. It was the first time a court ordered a private company to, in effect, change its business practice on climate grounds.

The symbolism was inescapable: The Netherlands, famously built on land reclaimed from the sea, faces the immediate threat from a warming climate caused by the burning of Shell’s own products — oil and gas.

In another example this week, at the annual shareholder meeting of Exxon Mobil, the biggest American oil company, the message was framed sharply in terms of profits: A tiny new hedge fund led an investor rebellion to diversify away from oil and gas — or risk hurting investors and the bottom line.

Chevron’s shareholders voted to tell the company to reduce not only its own emissions, but also, remarkably, the emissions produced by customers who burn its oil and gasoline. And in Australia, a judge warned the government that a proposed coal mine expansion, a project challenged by eight teenagers and an 86-year-old nun, would need to ensure that it wouldn’t harm the health of the country’s children.

The timing was significant. This week scientists also concluded that, in the next five years, the average global temperature will at least temporarily spike beyond a dangerous threshold, climbing more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than in pre-industrial times. Avoiding that threshold is the main objective of the Paris Accord, the landmark global climate agreement among the nations of the world to fight climate change.

Of course, none of these actions represents an immediate threat to the fossil fuel industry. For a century and a half, the global economy has been fueled by oil and coal, and that won’t change immediately.

Nevertheless, rulings like the one in the Netherlands could be a harbinger for similar legal attacks against other fossil fuel companies and their investors, experts said. Kate Raworth, an economist at Oxford University, called Shell’s loss in court “a social tipping point for a fossil-fuel-free future.”

Shell said it found the ruling, by a district court in The Hague, “disappointing” and intended to appeal. That process could take years to reach the country’s supreme court, delaying action but also drawing continued public attention.

Credit...Remko De Waal/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

If the ruling of the lower court stands, though, analysts said, Shell would most certainly have to reorient its business to reduce oil in its portfolio and halt its growth in liquefied natural gas, in which Shell is an industry leader.

That is a matter of concern for the investors who have their money in the oil and gas reserves of companies like Shell, said Patrick Parenteau, a professor at Vermont Law School. “A decision telling a company, ‘You’ve got to get out of the oil business.’ For cautious individuals within the financial community, that’s got to cause them serious concerns.”

Dangerously for Shell, the national judiciary of the Netherlands in the past has shown itself to be among the most out-front on climate litigation. In 2019, the Supreme Court of the Netherlands ordered the government to cut greenhouse gas emissions because of a lawsuit filed by Urgenda, an environmental group. It was the first case in the world to force a national government to address climate change in order to uphold its human rights commitments.

That case, too, began in a district court in The Hague, before making its way up the judicial ladder. The lawsuit against Shell marked an escalation in that strategy.

Having sued the government and won, environmental advocates decided to take on one of the country’s most influential companies. The case was brought in 2019 by Milieudefensie, the Dutch branch of Friends of the Earth, as well as Greenpeace and 17,000 residents of the Netherlands. The complainants argued that the company has a legal duty to protect Dutch citizens from looming climate risks. The district court agreed.

“The consequences of this case for the fossil fuel industry will be systemic and immediate,” Tessa Khan, the lawyer who had sued the government on behalf of Urgenda, said on Twitter. She predicted that it would spur other cases and “escalate the perception of risk among investors.”

Shell had already begun to see the writing on the wall. It said earlier this year that global oil demand had likely reached a peak in 2019 and would slowly wane in the coming years.

And at least compared to some of its American peers, Shell had set relatively more ambitious climate targets. It had already promised to reduce the carbon intensity of its operations, which means that it could still continue to expand oil and production, but with lower emissions for every barrel it produced.

The district court on Wednesday instructed the company to cut its absolute emissions by 45 percent by 2030, relative to its 2019 levels. The ruling applies to Shell’s global operations. But, that said, even if it is upheld on appeal, enforcing it, say, in Nigeria, where Shell is the biggest oil producer, could prove to be “impractical,” said Biraj Borkhataria, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, an investment bank.

“However,” he said separately, in a note to clients on Thursday, “it is another example of society asking more from oil companies.”The Shell ruling is particularly notable because private companies have been targets of climate litigation in the United States and elsewhere, but courts have rarely ruled against them.

Credit...Carlo Allegri/Reuters

The Dutch case opens a potentially new front, emboldening climate advocates to pursue more cases in a wider variety of countries, particularly where national laws enshrine the right to a clean environment.

Several European and Latin American courts, including in the Netherlands, have interpreted their national laws in this way. A farmer in Peru is suing a German energy giant over the effects of global warming on a glacier in his country. About 20 American cities, counties and states have sued the fossil fuel industry since 2017, seeking damages for the local costs of climate change.

Governments are also on the hook.

Germany’s highest court recently told the government to tighten its climate targets because they did not go far enough to ensure that future generations would be protected.

In the Australian case, eight teenagers, joined by Brigid Arthur, the nun, went to court to stop the government from expanding an enormous coal mine called Whitehaven. The court on Thursday stopped short of issuing an injunction against the mine, as the plaintiffs had sought.

But in ordering the government to take “reasonable care to avoid personal injury to the children,” it recognized climate change as an “intergenerational crime,” said Michael Burger, executive director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University and a lawyer who represents several U.S. cities and states suing fossil fuel companies.

“The actions we take today with respect to climate change can consign our children, our children’s children, and other future generations to a world that is fundamentally livable or a world that is not,” he said. “Courts recognize that.”

The most closely watched case in the United States, filed on behalf of young people against the United States government, seeks to establish a constitutional right to a sound environment. After recent setbacks in the federal courts, a federal judge has ordered the parties to enter settlement discussions.

The actions against Chevron and Exxon are notable because they reveal the extent to which shareholders are quickly awakening to the risk to their investments if energy companies don’t dramatically start changing their business models.

A significant chunk of shareholders demonstrated that they were increasingly distrustful that the companies could deliver the financial performance they expected without diversifying away from oil and gas.

Exxon this week lost a battle against a small new hedge fund, Engine No. 1, which rallied big investors like Blackrock and the New York state pension fund to force the company to change course. The hedge fund won at least two seats on Exxon’s 12-member board.

Tensie Whelan, director of the New York University Stern Center for Sustainable Business, called it “a pivotal moment for board accountability.” Activist shareholders have traditionally taken on company executives over financial issues, not social issues like climate change, she said. “Shareholders are deeply concerned about the financial risks posed by climate change and increasingly willing to hold the board to account,” Ms. Whelan said.

Links

(The Guardian) ‘Black Wednesday’ For Big Oil As Courtrooms And Boardrooms Turn On Industry

The Guardian

Campaigners sense turning point as shareholders, boards and The Hague act to force Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell to cut pollution

An oil rig in the Beaufort sea, in the Arctic. Photograph: Stockbyte/Getty Images

The world’s patience with the fossil fuel industry is wearing thin. This was the stark message delivered to major international oil companies this week in an unprecedented day of reckoning for their role in the climate crisis.

In a stunning series of defeats for the oil industry, over the course of less than 24 hours, courtrooms and boardrooms turned on the executives at Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron. Shell was ordered by a court in The Hague to go far further to reduce its climate emissions, while shareholder rebellions in the US imposed emissions targets at Chevron and a boardroom overhaul at Exxon.

“There is no doubt that this week’s news has been not so much a shot across the bows as a direct hit to the hull of Big Oil,” says Mark Lewis, the chief sustainability strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “They will have to recognise now that no amount of patching up the hole will do; shareholders and society want the vessel completely overhauled.”

Director of Dutch environment organisation ‘Milieudefensie’ Donald Pols reacts as he walks outside a court in The Hague. Photograph: Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP/Getty Images

For climate campaigners, the oil industry’s “Black Wednesday” marked a turning point in the financial and legal consequences awaiting oil companies that do not act fast to take accountability for their role in preventing a climate catastrophe.

“It was honestly a really emotional moment,” says Jasper Teulings, the former general counsel for Greenpeace International. The ruling by the Dutch court ordering Shell to cut its emissions by 45% within the next 10 years “shifts the debate” and could influence courtrooms across the globe, he told the Guardian.

“It makes clear that the onus is on the industry to act, and that it can be held accountable to take very specific steps. It’s very relevant in legal terms because the ruling was very pure in its demand: it’s not about money, it’s about conduct. It was astutely reasonable,” he says.

The basis of the case, brought by Dutch climate campaigners at Milieudefensie, was rooted in norms derived from elements of human rights law and the UN’s Guiding Principles, which have “near-universal application” and could be used in cases against other major polluters.

“We’re seeing a convergence of issues because, really, climate issues are human rights issues. I don’t see any reason why these [arguments] won’t be replicated elsewhere. Polluters can expect to see their day in court,” Teulings says.

Shell has said it will appeal against the “disappointing” ruling, which calls for the company to align with the emissions targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. The decision could lead to years of legal wrangling and prove profoundly damaging to Shell’s reputation.

“If they truly believe their strategy aligns with Paris, then there should be no problem complying with the court’s demands,” says Teulings. “Shell’s decision to appeal is therefore irreconcilable. Therein lies the lie.”

The court ruling will force Shell to slash at least a million barrels of oil and gas from its fossil fuel production every day, at a cost of several billion dollars a year, according to oil industry analysts.

Biraj Borkhataria, an analyst at RBC Capital, says: “To put this simply, this aggressive shift would have meaningful cashflow implications for Shell.” He estimates that the sharp cut in fossil fuel production could cost Shell $6bn a year.

Increasingly, major institutional investors are also growing concerned over the cost of failing to act on the climate agenda. It marks the clearest sign yet that climate action is being treated as a major financial risk as well as an environmental one.

Exxon shareholders, including investment giants BlackRock and Vanguard, voted to oust at least two of the oil giant’s board members in favour of candidates put forward by Engine No 1, an activist hedge fund founded less than six months ago, for failing to take the transition to low-carbon energy seriously.

At Chevron, more than 60% of investors voted in favour of a climate resolution from Dutch campaign group Follow This to force the company to reduce its emissions.

Eli Kasargod-Staub, the executive director of Majority Action, a shareholder group, said, after the twin US rebellions, that “for the first time in history, responsible shareholders have breached the walls protecting recalcitrant boards of directors”.

“The ExxonMobil challenge is only the beginning of a reckoning for board directors who fail to make measurable progress towards decarbonisation and protecting long-term shareholder value,” Kasargod-Staub added.

Among the fossil fuel industry’s largest institutional investors, concern is weighted far more heavily towards the potential destruction of long-term shareholder value than the destruction of the environment. But they do expect executives to take a defensive stance against the risks of a greener world – which means investing in the green technologies of the future.

Within days of the oil industry’s ‘Black Wednesday’ reckoning, credit rating agency Moody’s warned that the credit risk of major oil producers had increased. The convergence of financial risk with the long-held concerns of climate activists could prove to be a crucial tipping point against climate action cynics.

Oil industry pundits have warned that forcing Shell to cut its fossil fuel production would simply shift its barrels of oil to smaller, private oil companies or larger state-owned oil giants, with little impact on global emissions.

This overlooks the endemic climate concerns taking hold in the financing of the fossil fuel sector, says Mike Coffin, a researcher at financial thinktank Carbon Tracker. Climate activist pressure “will be felt by the banks which finance these projects” and by the insurers that underwrite the risk. No matter which company is hoping to drill for oil, it will be viewed as a riskier prospect and capital will be restricted, he says.

The flow of capital once destined for fossil fuels into sustainable investments may even help hasten the inevitable trajectory of lower oil demand and dwindling market prices, which could force oil-producing countries to rethink their state investments too, Coffin says.

For longtime campaigners including Teulings, the compounding implications of the climate victories of the last week offer a rare opportunity for optimism.

“Anyone who cares about the climate has felt times of panic, and despair, and helplessness. The ruling is a beacon of hope,” he says. “Perhaps that’s the biggest impact; beyond the legal impact, and the concrete impact on carbon emissions, the ruling offers hope. It’s what we’ve been waiting for.”

Links

(AU SMH) False Prophets And Snake Oil Will Fail Coal Communities

Sydney Morning HeraldPatrick Suckling

Author
Patrick Suckling, Australia’s former environment ambassador, is a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and senior partner at the climate advisory and investment firm Pollination.
Joel Fitzgibbon is trying to walk both sides of the street on coal and climate. As everyone knows you can’t.

This week the Labor member for the federal seat of Hunter asked whether his party had the “agility” to appeal to residents of progressive inner Sydney and Melbourne suburbs and resource-rich regions.

Two-faced politics rarely succeeds, certainly not over time and on issues as serious as climate change.

Coal mining is in decline and its days are numbered. Pretending otherwise will not help miners and their families. Credit: Rob Homer

Presumably in a demonstration of this agility, Fitzgibbon’s prescription is to tell coal miners and their families in the Hunter that their industry is critical to Australia’s economic fortunes, it has unqualified support and that we will fight to keep it alive and well.

Given where the world is going on climate transition, this is snake oil. The curtain is closing on coal. Economics is against it, given renewable energy is a cheaper build for new power across the world. Sentiment is against it, not least because of its major role in 7 million deaths a year from air pollution. The climate is against it, literally. Our children beseech us not to burn it.

More than 60 per cent of the global economy is now committed to net zero emissions by 2050, meaning the curtain will fall more rapidly on coal than thought even a few years ago.

Underlining the point, the International Energy Agency advocates no new coal mining from now – a position unthinkable for that organisation in the recent past.

Macquarie Group has announced it will end its investments in coal. Neither can be dismissed as the “excessive” or “radical progressives” against coal who Fitzgibbon derides.

He contends climate change is a small challenge compared with those of military conscription and communism in Australia’s past. It is not.

Climate change is the challenge for our generation. Unless the world successfully combats climate change, millions face destitution, displacement and death in ways now so extensively documented there is no argument.

Ecosystems and a million animal and plant species are threatened, too. In its 130-year history, the Australian Labor has fought against such iniquities.

Albanese’s challenge: putting the labour back in Labor
Climate action will be the barometer of leadership this decade, the next and the next. Leadership and snake oil are antithetical.

Workers in the Hunter and elsewhere will not prosper from the blandishments of false prophets but the vision, practical solutions and diligent application of those charting a way through the demise of coal to new and thriving futures for those workers and their families who deserve every respect and opportunity.

No one says this is easy. Nor that this is a tomorrow thing. There is a transition occurring, not only for coal but the entire global economy as it shifts to net-zero emissions.

The good news is that although coal is flaming out, the climate transition offers unprecedented opportunities for new skills and jobs through new technology, industry and investment.

In clean energy alone, joint analysis by the International Energy Agency and the International Monetary Fund foresees investment rising from $US2 trillion a year today to $US5 trillion ($6.46 trillion) every year from 2030 to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Last week The Wall Street Journal, no less, reported climate investing is becoming mainstream and listed what it called a geyser of capital flowing in this direction, including more than $US5 billion of bonds and loans issued every day.

Big corporate emitters caught in a shareholder vice that’s tightening
This holds great prospects for regions such as the Hunter Valley, as our Prime Minister recently underlined to world leaders.

Renewable energy, hydrogen and agriculture are three cases in point, each linked to the emerging world of digital technology and all the opportunities it will unfurl.

Change is inexorable, and the transition is accelerating. In these circumstances, leadership requires levelling with people and working out a plan rather than ducking and punting it. That is what leadership is: making things possible.

Germany has done this with coal, phasing out its use over hard-fought years of working with its industry and across the economy.

When I was Australia’s ambassador for the environment, in every conversation I had with German officials and ministers, they put their concern for the workers and families affected – and on a just transition – at the heart of their work.

This gives every reason for hope for the Hunter and its workers. Politicians need to embrace it, not stoke the false hope of fading fires that are set to leave communities out in the cold.

Links