(AU SMH) This Time, The ‘Danger’ Sign Must Go Up

Sydney Morning Herald - Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

Author Ove Hoegh-Guldberg is Professor of Marine Studies at the University of Queensland. He is deputy director of the ARC Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies.

There is a distinct possibility that one of our most treasured environmental assets, the Great Barrier Reef, will soon be listed by the World Heritage Committee as “in danger"⁣.

The listing “is designed to inform the international community of conditions which threaten the very characteristics for which a property was inscribed on the World Heritage List, and to encourage corrective action.″⁣

Examples of bleached coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef. Credit: Jason South

Listing the reef as “in danger” was discussed a decade ago when it was noted “with extreme concern the approval of Liquefied Natural Gas processing and port facilities on Curtis Island”.

About the same time, long-term monitoring by the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) reported a 50 per cent decline in coral populations over almost 30 years.

There were numerous other concerns as well. As a result of these growing threats, UNESCO and the International Union for Conservation of Nature were invited to visit the reef in March 2012, finding that declining water quality, expanding coastal development, cyclones and mass coral bleaching were affecting the reef.

Then came talk of adding the GBR to the “in danger” list. This led to a massive mobilisation by the Queensland and federal governments to convince World Heritage Committee members and the world that Australia had got the message and had taken significant steps to deal with issues such as water quality and limiting the number of industrial ports up and down the GBR coastline.

Adding the reef to the “in danger” list back then was premature, and giving the federal government the chance to implement changes was justified. As I wrote with University of Queensland legal scholar Justine Bell-James in 2014, it “would seem ill-advised that the World Heritage committee remove one of the only levers it currently has over the treatment of the World Heritage-listed GBR.

Work is underway to plant 100,000 healthy corals on reefs in the Cairns and Port Douglas region. Credit: James Brickwood

“The threat of an ‘in danger’ listing is a major incentive for Australia to improve its game, and has already prompted some reform.

With this lever gone, the influence of UNESCO would largely disappear along with, most probably, any political will to prevent the further decline of the once-pristine reef.”

Rightly or wrongly, we have not improved our game enough.

Fast forward to today and the overall health of the Great Barrier Reef has decreased from “poor” to “very poor” in the latest five-year Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report in 2019.

This comprehensive account of the state of the Great Barrier Reef concluded that climate change was its greatest threat, along with coastal development. According to the report, while some gains have been achieved, many gains are occurring too slowly or not at all.

Most significantly has been the rapid escalation of damage from climate change. In just the last five years, the Great Barrier Reef has experienced three record coral bleaching and mortality events. Taken together these impacts have killed at least 50 per cent of shallow water corals. The scale and the impact of these events has been nothing short of shocking.

So, after 10 years of further decline in almost all dimensions plus exceptional heatwave and bleaching impacts, I think that it is time to recognise that the reef is “in danger”.

Others feel that this is a beat-up that involves the 21 members of the Chinese-led World Heritage Committee. For the Minister Sussan Ley, this is about a government being broadsided by UNESCO processes.

For me, however, the science is telling us that we are not doing enough to ensure the recovery of the reef from decades of declining water quality, coastal development and climate change. It is a story about rapid environmental change driving our reef to rubble.

Australia will oppose a draft World Heritage Committee recommendation that Queensland's Great Barrier Reef be singled out for an "in danger" listing.

Importantly, this is also not a time to be giving up, but a time to accelerate our efforts to fix water quality, control crown of thorns starfish outbreaks, and deal comprehensively with the climate problem. We must seek new solutions – and we must also double down on driving Australia and the international communities to zero emissions as soon as possible.

Given the big impacts that are starting to occur on the Great Barrier Reef, we are heading into territory that will be hard to reverse. We must get to the zero carbon emissions as soon as possible, while helping our neighbours to do so as well.

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Great Barrier Reef

Australia criticises United Nations warning that Great Barrier Reef is in danger

The good news is that we still have time, but only if we act deeply and fundamentally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to put Australia on a pathway compatible with global warming of 1.5 degrees, which is a critical threshold for corals and many other systems.

The climate science tells us Australia must reduce its emissions to zero by 2035 or sooner.

After all, every tonne of carbon going into the atmosphere will cost us, whether as a loss of jobs and income, or the loss of the intangible benefits of a place like the Great Barrier Reef.

While the issue may be inconvenient for Australia’s leadership, it is a wake-up call to all of us that unless we take deep and serious action on climate change, we face the prospect of our World Heritage-listed Great Barrier Reef no longer being a coral reef paradise.

Links

• (AU ABC) Environment Minister Says Government Will Challenge UNESCO Move To List Great Barrier Reef As 'In Danger'
• (AU ABC) Coral Reefs Across The World 'In Danger' As Scientists Note Slowing Calcification
• (AU) Barrier Reef Doomed As Up To 99% Of Coral At Risk, Report Finds
• (AU) Great Barrier Reef Outlook 'Critical' As Climate Change Called Number One Threat To World Heritage
• (AU) 'There Is No Time To Lose': Great Barrier Reef Has Lost Half Its Corals
• (AU) Australia Cannot Wait For Climate Decision To Save Reef: Foundation

(ABC) US Cities Set Up 'Cooling Centres' As Historic Heatwave Bakes Pacific North-West

ABC News - ABC/wires

People sleep at a cooling shelter set up in Portland, Oregon. (Reuters: Maranie Staab)

Key Points Areas that normally experience mild weather are reaching temperatures in the mid-40s  Temperatures have soared due to a high-pressure dome The US National Weather Service says more unusual weather patterns could become more common amid rising global temperatures

Cities across the United States Pacific Northwest are setting up "cooling centres" where people can escape a record heatwave baking the region.

Daytime temperatures have been breaking records in places where many residents do not have air conditioning.

Shops have sold out of portable air conditioners, fans, water and sports drinks.

Cities have been reminding residents where pools and cooling centres are available and been urging people to stay hydrated, check on their neighbours and avoid strenuous activities.

"This is life-threatening heat," Jennifer Vines, health officer for Multnomah County in Oregon, said in a statement.

"People need to find some place cool to spend time during the coming days."

Multnomah County, which includes the state capital Portland, opened three cooling centres over the weekend, including one at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland. 

Sunday's forecast temperature of 44 degrees Celsius in Portland would break the temperature record of 42C, set just a day earlier. Another 44C day is predicted on Monday.

The temperature was expected to rise to an all-time record of 40C at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on Sunday and surpass that to reach 43.9C on Monday, as the excessive heat warning continues for the region.

And so it begins. A record temperature has already been equaled. The low in Seattle this morning was 64. This ties the record high minimum for the date from 2017.

If you're keeping a written list of the records that will fall, you might need a few pages by early next week. #wawx

— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) June 25, 2021

At least one county closed several COVID-19 testing sites because of the heat.

Seattle opened additional public library branches on Sunday, and will again on Monday, to provide additional cooling centres, The Seattle Times reported.

Cooling centres have also been opened in parts of California and elsewhere in the Pacific north-west as the heatwave has gripped the region.

Temperatures had soared due to a high-pressure dome that had built over US and Canada's upper north-west, the National Weather Service said, similar to the atmospheric conditions that punished south-western states earlier this month.

The Salvation Army has been handing out bottled water. (Reuters: Karen Ducey)

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Coeur d’Alene said this week's weather would "likely be one of the most extreme and prolonged heatwaves in the recorded history of the inland north-west".

"Unprecedented heat will not only threaten the health of residents in the inland north-west but will make our region increasingly vulnerable to wildfires and intensify the impacts of our ongoing drought," the service said.

The high temperatures were forecast to move into western Montana beginning Monday.

Experts say extreme weather events such as the late-spring heatwaves that have descended on parts of the US this year cannot be linked directly to climate change.

But more unusual weather patterns could become more common amid rising global temperatures, NWS meteorologist Eric Schoening said. 

Links

• (USA NPR) The Drought In The Western U.S. Is Getting Bad. Climate Change Is Making It Worse
• Severe Drought, Worsened by Climate Change, Ravages the American West
• A very, very, very dry future for the U.S. West
• Drought stokes fears of severe fire season in West
• Drought Is the U.S. West’s Next Big Climate Disaster
• Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought
• Western U.S. may be entering its most severe drought in modern history
• Creeping toward Permanent Drought
• Megadrought emerging in western U.S. could be the worst in 1,200 years, study finds
• ‘Megadrought’ persists in western U.S., as another extremely dry year develops
• The megadrought parching 77 percent of the Western US, explained

(AU BBC) Climate Change: Why Action Still Ignites Debate In Australia

BBC - Shaimaa Khalil

Australia has seen weather extremes in recent years - from devastating bushfires to record floods. Image copyright Getty Images

Author Shaimaa Khalil is Australia Correspondent for BBC News. She holds a Master's degree in Broadcast Journalism from Westminister University.

In my first week as the BBC's new Australia correspondent in 2019, a state of emergency was declared in New South Wales. Bushfires blazed and came very close to Sydney.

The orange haze and the smell of smoke will forever be etched in my memory.

As the country woke to pictures of red skies, destroyed homes and burned koalas in smouldering bushland, the climate change debate came to the fore.

But this wasn't a scientific debate. It was political and it was partisan.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison did not answer questions about the issue, while then Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack dismissed climate concerns as those of "raving inner-city lefties".

That was my other big memory of my first week in Australia. The leadership - after years of drought and as blazes raged across the east coast - openly throwing doubt on the effects of climate change.

This was a tussle at the heart of Australian politics.

Climate change is a hotly charged issue here. It draws in the powerful fossil fuel industry and regional voters fearful for their livelihoods.

It's a subject that has ended political careers.

'Vacuum of leadership'

Throughout those months of the Black Summer fire season, Mr Morrison would face fierce criticism about how his government handled the situation - and how it continued to avoid the climate crisis.

The science around climate change is complex but it's clear. Yes, it was not the cause of any individual fire but experts agree it played a big role in creating catastrophic fire conditions; a hotter, drier climate contributed to the bushfires becoming more frequent and more intense.

An inquiry following the Black Summer fires said further global warming is inevitable over the next 20 years - and Australians should prepare for more extreme weather.

Still, Australia's government refuses to pledge net zero carbon emissions by 2050. This refers to balancing out any emissions produced by industry, transport or other sources by removing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere.

In his address to US President Joe Biden's climate conference in April, the prime minister said Australia will "get there as soon as we possibly can".

Climate change remains hotly contested ground in Australia. Image copyright Getty Images

"For Australia, it is not a question of if, or even by when, for net-zero but, importantly, how," Mr Morrison said.

That is at the heart of the problem. The "when" is as crucial as the "how" when it comes to climate change. Scientists and global leaders say Australia is not doing enough, and not going fast enough.

The country is embracing new green technologies, but that's often spearheaded by a frustrated private sector in the absence of central leadership.

"You have many businesses banding together and taking matters into their own hands," says Dr Simon Bradshaw, researcher at the Climate Council, an independent advisory group.

"Almost all of Australia's states and territories are committed to net zero emissions by 2050. It's really just that vacuum of leadership at the federal level," he says.

Dr Bradshaw says while much of the world pushes ahead with action on climate change, Australia is becoming "increasingly isolated".

The power of industry

As it resists tougher emissions targets, the Morrison government also continues to invest in the fossil fuel industry.

Last month it said it will fund a new gas-fired power plant in New South Wales' Hunter Valley, despite experts warning the plant makes little commercial sense long- term.

Mr Morrison recently told a conference of fossil fuel executives that oil and gas will "always" be a major contributor to the country's prosperity.

If you're watching this from the outside, you'd be forgiven for being surprised. But it makes sense from a domestic political perspective.

Australia is among the world's biggest exporters of coal, iron-ore and gas. This is the bedrock of the country's wealth and its thriving economy. It's proven to be political suicide to go against that.

"The fossil fuel lobby continues to be very powerful in Australia," says Dr Bradshaw.

With a slim majority and a looming election, Mr Morrison is aware of what a poisoned chalice climate action is here. This issue has ended the careers of leaders before him including predecessor Malcolm Turnbull, whose efforts to bring back a carbon price policy - a tax on polluting fossil fuels - led to his downfall.

Scott Morrison (L) is under pressure from his UK and US allies to impose tougher emissions reduction targets. Image copyright Getty Images

Mr Morrison also faces pressure from his coalition partners - the National party - and their block of voters.

Many National MPs, who represent rural Australia, have been public about their opposition to the government formally embracing a net zero emissions reduction target.

While still refusing to commit to a target, Mr Morrison has said he wants Australia to achieve net zero emissions "preferably" by 2050. That was enough to anger the Nationals and worry their constituents especially in regional mining communities.

The 'cost' of action

Part of why the politics around climate action is so toxic here is the way the narrative around it has been framed, says Australian National University climate scientist Dr Imran Ahmed.

"The message to the people [has been] that action on climate change is a cost, not an investment," he says.

"It is not jobs or the environment, it is both."

Dr Bradshaw says the country's concentrated media landscape has also shaped views around the climate emergency.

"It's been dominated by largely right wing, and conservative media, and particularly the Murdoch press that's had a heavy influence on public opinion and understanding of the climate crisis."

For regional voters, the messaging around a transition to cleaner energy has been confusing and unconvincing at best - or a cause for fear and anxiety about their future at worst.

"We have to be mindful of existing coal communities and the people that have jobs [in the fossil fuel industry].

"They need to be prepared with the necessary skills to transition into the new industries," says Dr Ahmed.

Some koalas were rescued from Australia's bushfires but many perished. (Report from September 2020)

Mr Morrison has been adamant that "technology not taxes" is the way forward - knowing the backlash he would face if he were to impose carbon pricing.

But scientists say technology on its own is not enough and that what is needed is a combination of all measures; reduction targets, new technology for clean energy and a carbon tax.

Mr Morrison is stuck between two unrelenting pulling forces; his own party and his governing coalition partner standing firmly behind the country's fossil fuel industry - and an increased international pressure from strategic allies like the UK and the US for tougher emissions reduction targets.

The first is about the prime minister's domestic political standing. The second is about Australia's standing in the world.

Links

• A visual guide to Australia's bushfire crisis
• Australia told to plan for 'simultaneous disasters'
• What is Australia doing to tackle climate change?
• Climate Change Performance Index (pdf)
• The Climate Question: Why is Australia so slow to act on climate change?
• Newsday: Unesco: Great Barrier Reef should be listed as 'in danger'
• Climate change: Why action still ignites debate in Australia
• The Science Hour: Australia’s fires - fuelled by climate change