29/07/2021

(AU ABC) Climate Emergency Not Slowed By COVID-19 Pandemic And Planet's 'Vital Signs' Worsening, Scientists Say

ABC Science - Jo Khan

Fires raging across the US west have scientists concerned the climate emergency is not going anywhere. (AP: Noah Berger)
Key Points
  • Scientists have declared Earth's "vital signs" are worsening, despite a change in habits because of COVID-19
  • Emissions have reached an all-time high even though air traffic has declined
  • Australia is an outlier in both setting targets and strategies to reduce emissions 
Chances are in the past 18 months you've heard someone exclaim that air travel is at an all-time low, and how good that must be for the climate.
 
But scientists have confirmed that despite many industries and human activities slowing during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Earth's "vital signs" have actually worsened over the past two years.

And with catastrophic floods in Europe and India, unprecedented heatwaves in British Columbia and dozens of wildfires raging across the US west, it's frighteningly obvious that the climate emergency is not going anywhere.

Pandemic disrupts Earth's 'vital signs'

The research, published today in the scientific journal BioScience, is not peer reviewed, but is a continuation of the 2019 climate emergency declaration, which was endorsed by over 11,000 scientists.

That number now sits at over 14,000 scientists from 158 countries.

The scientists involved chose 31 indicators that correspond to the effects of human activities on the climate, environment, and society, in an attempt to broaden discussions of climate change beyond global surface temperatures.

These indicators, which they call Earth's "vital signs", include things like human population, meat production, tree cover loss, carbon dioxide emissions, national declarations of climate emergency, and sea-level change.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted many of these "vital signs", but also provided insights into how a major shift in human activity can impact climate change, according to report author Thomas Newsome from the University of Sydney.

"Even with that decline in air transport and the general slowdown in human movement, it generally didn't have an overall impact on greenhouse gas emissions," Dr Newsome said.
"Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions have reached all-time highs over the last two years, so they continued to rise in step with surface temperatures."
The decline in air transport had little overall impact on greenhouse gas emissions. (Unsplash: Suhyeon Choi)
Temporary declines in air transport, world GDP, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, have all started to return to pre-pandemic levels, Dr Newsome said.

"It suggests that much more fundamental changes to the way we produce energy are needed than a slight shift in one particular sector," he said.

The pandemic has also had little impact on the rate of forest-cover loss in the Amazon, which increased to a 12-year high in 2020.

And the number of ruminant livestock worldwide has not been slowed down by the pandemic either — it now reaches over 4 billion.

That means the total mass of ruminant livestock on the planet is now more than that of all humans and wild mammals combined, which contributes significantly to the production of methane and is also a driver of deforestation.

The rate of forest cover loss in the Amazon hit a 12-year high in 2020. (Center for International Forestry Research/flickr.com/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
Fossil fuel subsidies holding back progress

A shift in both fossil fuels divestment and subsidies over the past two years does signal some movement in the right direction, Dr Newsome said.

Around $8.8 trillion (US$6.5 trillion) was divested from fossil fuels between 2018 and 2020, with most of that being from faith-based groups, philanthropic foundations, education, government, and pension funds.

And fossil fuel consumption subsidies — relating to prices consumers pay for energy — fell to a record low of $245 billion (US$181 billion) in 2020, which was 42 per cent lower than 2019 levels.

"It demonstrates that there are economic signals here that we're heading in the right direction," Dr Newsome said.
"Divesting in fossil fuels suggests that it's coming to an end, the world is moving towards renewables."
Dr Thomas Newsome was one of over 11,000 scientists who declared a climate emergency in 2019. (Supplied: Fiona Roughley, University of Sydney.)

But despite an overall global decrease, two recent reports suggest fossil fuel subsidies are still holding back progress on emissions reductions.

One report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development found that the reform of fossil fuel consumption subsidies in 32 countries could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5.5 billion tonnes by 2030. 

A separate report from BloombergNEF found that the level of support for all types of fossil fuel subsidies within G20 countries is incompatible with the Paris Agreement goals.

And while we're responsible for a smaller slice of the subsidy pie, Australia had the largest percentage increase in fossil fuel subsidies from 2015-2019 of 48 per cent, according to the report. 

Dr Newsome thinks Australia is becoming increasingly isolated from the rest of the world when it comes to emissions.

"Australia is an outlier in many respects, with both setting a clear target to reach net zero emissions and in terms of actually putting in place effective strategies to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions," he said.
"But equally, while the rest of the world is moving, we're not seeing the shifts yet in the data that suggests that anything to date has been effective in actually tackling the issue of climate change."
The report's researchers said the phasing out and eventual ban of fossil fuels is just one of the solutions required to find a way out of the climate emergency.

An effective carbon price and environment reserves to restore natural carbon sinks are the other two key solutions proposed.

Foreshadowing long-awaited IPCC report

While the "vital signs" are striking, the message is unsurprising, said lecturer in climate science and science communication at the University of Melbourne Linden Ashcroft, who was not involved in the research.

"It is a really effective way of showing people what's been going on, and echoes research that's going on in all different fields of science," Dr Ashcroft said.

"While we have dramatically changed the way we've lived in the last 18 months, it's going to require much more long-term, dramatic change to stop or even slow the worst impacts of climate change."

The five hottest years on record have all occurred since 2015. (Supplied: NASA)

Dr Ashcroft said the sheer volume of the "vital signs" considered in the report meant some detail and nuance was lost.

"I'm going to be paying much more attention to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that comes out next month, because that's been through years and years of revisions and peer review," she said.

The next IPCC report, due to be released on August 9, will be the most comprehensive assessment on the state of global heating since 2013.

Dr Ashcroft said the paper would give an overview of a huge range of scientific fields and how they relate to climate change.

"I do think there is a place for this very impassioned scientific argument, but I also think there is a place for the IPCC-style report which brings together all of the climate research that's done all around the world to get an absolute, comprehensive picture of what's going on," Dr Ashcroft said.

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(UK The Guardian) Hitting Global Climate Target Could Create 8m Energy Jobs, Study Says

The Guardian - 

Researchers suggest net increase would mostly occur in renewables sector, with decline in fossil fuels

A worker inspects solar panels at a manufacturing plant in Singapore. Photograph: Edgar Su/Reuters
If some politicians are to be believed, taking sweeping action to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement would be calamitous for jobs in the energy sector.

But a study suggests that honouring the global climate target would, in fact, increase net jobs by about 8 million by 2050.

The study – in which researchers created a global dataset of the footprint of energy jobs in 50 countries including major fossil fuel-producing economies – found that currently an estimated 18 million people work in the energy industries, which is likely to increase to 26 million if climate targets are met.

Previous research suggests that pro-climate polices could increase net energy jobs by 20 million or more, but that work relied only on empirical data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and generalised the results for the rest of the world using a multiplier.

But the data varies dramatically across regions, driven by differences in technology and rates of unionisation, among other factors. For instance, extracting 1m tonnes of coal in India takes 725 workers, versus 73 in the US.

The latest analysis, published in the journal One Earth, combined such employment factors across a global dataset (including key fossil fuel, non-OECD economies such as Russia, India and China) with an integrated assessment model, which combines climate and economic estimates to predict the costs of climate change.

“This dataset makes the analysis more grounded in … reality, rather than using a multiplier,” said one of the study’s authors, Dr Sandeep Pai, who led the analysis as part of his PhD at the institute for resources, environment and sustainability at the University of British Columbia in Canada.

Under the target scenario of global temperatures being held well below 2C of pre-industrial levels, of the total jobs in the energy sector in 2050, 84% would be in the renewables sector, 11% in fossil fuels, and 5% in nuclear, the analysis found.

Although fossil-fuel extraction jobs – which constitute the lion’s share (80%) of current fossil fuel jobs – will decline steeply, those losses should be offset by gains in solar and wind manufacturing jobs that countries could compete for, the researchers estimated.

However, while most countries will experience a net job increase, China and fossil fuel-exporting countries such as Canada, Australia and Mexico could have net losses.

Undoubtedly, there will be winners and losers. The winners will be people who take these jobs in the renewable sector, and there are the health benefits of fresh air and cleaner cities – but there will also be people, companies and governments who lose out, said Pai.

“That’s why … we want to work towards a ‘just’ transition, make sure nobody’s left behind,” he said. “The point is that unless politics and social context of different countries align, I think this technological transition will not happen soon.”

Johannes Emmerling, an environmental economist at the RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment in Italy, another author of the study, acknowledged that the analysis did not account for the gaps in skills.

People working in the fossil fuel industry do not necessarily have the expertise or the experience to carry out jobs in the renewable sector, but given that there are few estimates of jobs as the world aims to forge a greener future, the focus was on firming up estimates, he said, adding that skills were the next avenue of research.

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(USA Axios) Study: Get Ready For Many More Record-Shattering Heatwaves

Axios - Andrew Freedman

NASA computer model image of temperature departures from average on June 27 during the Pacific Northwest heat wave. (NASA Earth Observatory)

The recent deadly heat wave in the Pacific Northwest, during which all-time temperature records were shattered by several degrees, is a prologue to what is coming across much of the U.S., Europe and Asia, a new study finds.

Why it matters: The study shows that the rate of climate change is an under-appreciated driver of extreme heat, and that today's quickening pace of warming virtually guarantees more extreme temperature records in coming decades.
  • The study, published Monday in Nature Climate Change, also finds that looking to past extreme temperatures when making infrastructure decisions offers a poor guide to the future given how quickly human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are transforming the likelihood of unprecedented heat extremes.
Details: The study shows that the rate of warming, rather than the absolute amount of warming compared to preindustrial levels, is an important determining factor in how likely it is that heat waves will greatly exceed temperatures previously observed in a particular location.

What they did: Using computer models and records of past weather events, Erich Fischer and his colleagues at ETH Zurich examined how the chances for record-shattering heat waves have been shifting and will continue to change as global warming continues.
  • They focused on the occurrence of week-long, record-shattering heat waves, such as the one that recently occurred in the Pacific Northwest and Canada, and examined how these probabilities would change depending on the rate and amount of greenhouse gas emissions.
By the numbers: During the Pacific Northwest's deadly heat wave, Seattle hit an all-time high of 108°F, while Portland shattered its old record to reach 116°F. The previous record in Portland was just 107°F, whereas Seattle had only seen the mercury rise to 103°F prior to this event.
  • Typically, all-time temperature records are exceeded by fractions of a degree.
  • The study found that under a high emissions scenario, record-shattering heat extremes (at least three standard deviations from average) are two to seven times more likely during the 2021–2050 period, and three to 21 times more likely during the 2051–2080 period.
  • The greatest frequency of these heat extremes would occur during periods of faster warming immediately following years of relatively flat temperature growth.
  • The planet is currently warming at a rate of about 0.18°C, or 0.32°F per decade, according to NOAA. This is considerably faster than the warming rate during the previous 40 years, which puts us at greater risk of unprecedented heat.
What they're saying: "The main message is that we need to prepare for more record heat events in the coming decades that shatter previous record temperatures by large margins," Fischer told Axios via email.
  • "Because the probability of record-shattering events is directly related to the speed of warming, this is yet another piece of the puzzle that demonstrates that in order to reduce the risk of such record-shattering heat, greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced very rapidly," Fischer said.
Outside experts who were not part of the new study told Axios the research helps explain what's being seen in the real world.
  • "All I can say is, wow, what a remarkably prescient paper," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, noting that it was completed and submitted for publication prior to the heat waves this summer.
  • "The notion that events we assumed were vanishingly rare or impossible, due to our relatively limited historical record, are probably not nearly so rare in the real world," Swain added, noting that in the case of the Pacific Northwest heat event, unusual but not unheard of weather patterns were able to produce astonishing temperature records.
  • "We don't need to invoke some kind of exotic new mechanism for so-called 'black swan' heat waves," he said. "All it takes is to get unlucky with a confluence of the same ingredients that produced lesser historical heat waves."
  • Friederike Otto, who helps lead the global effort to analyze climate change's role in producing extreme weather events, said the paper shows that even very rare events like the Pacific Northwest heat wave are "increasing rapidly in likelihood with still increasing warming rates."
  • On the other hand, Michael Mann of Penn State University told Axios that model shortcomings regarding the physics of extreme events and atmospheric circulation means that the new study's projections are quite uncertain.
What's next: Even if world leaders decide to slash greenhouse gas emissions in the near term to avoid potentially devastating amounts of global warming, unprecedented heat extremes will still grow more common and damaging during the next several decades due to the lag time that the planet's climate has built into it.

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