Lethal Heating: 08/13/21

13/08/2021

(BBC) Climate Change: Low-Income Countries 'Can't Keep Up' With Impacts

BBC - Navin Singh Khadka

Caribbean island countries say their adaptation plans are not effective because hurricanes have become more powerful. Getty Images

Low-income countries are struggling to protect themselves against climate change, officials and experts have told the BBC.

Organisations representing 90 countries say that their plans to prevent damage have already been outpaced by climate-induced disasters, which are intensifying and happening more regularly.

The UN says the number of developing countries with climate adaptation plans has increased. But it stresses that there's limited evidence these plans have reduced any risks.

"We need to adapt our plans to the worsening climate crisis. Our existing plans are not enough to protect our people," says Sonam Wangdi, chair of the UN's Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group on climate change.

Their call for action comes as the UN's climate science body prepares to publish its latest assessment on Monday about the state of global warming.

The report, compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, will provide a scientific assessment of current and future climate change, and be a key reference for policymakers at the UN climate summit in Glasgow this November.

The world has already warmed by about 1.2C since the industrial era began, and temperatures will keep rising unless governments around the world make steep cuts to emissions.

Chaos in the Caribbean

Climate experts say houses in the Caribbean countries are unable to stand against category five hurricanes. Getty Images

Last year, the Caribbean had a record-breaking 30 tropical storms - including six major hurricanes.

The World Meteorological Organisation says the region is still recovering.

On islands like Antigua and Barbuda, experts say that many buildings have been unable to withstand the intense winds these storms have brought.

"We used to see category four hurricanes, so that's what we have prepared for with our adaptation plans, but now we are being hit by category five hurricanes," says Diann Black Layner, chief climate negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States.

"Category five hurricanes bring winds as strong as 180 miles per hour which the roofs cannot withstand because it creates stronger pressure inside our houses," she said.

Falling seawalls in Pacific islands

Pacific island countries say their defences against rising seas and cyclones are proving to be increasingly weak. Getty Images

Several Pacific Island countries were hit by three cyclones between the middle of 2020 and January 2021.

"After those three cyclones, communities in the northern part of our country have seen the sea walls built as part of their adaptation plans crumbling," says Vani Catanasiga, head of the Fiji Council of Social Services - a group representing Fijian NGOs in the country's Disaster Management Council.

"The water and the wind repeatedly battering the settlements even displaced some locals."

Although it's rare to see so many storms in such a short space of time, experts say sea storms have been growing in strength.

Studies suggest tropical cyclones have become more intense in the past 40 years, but an increase in the overall number of cyclones has not been established.

Uganda's mountain menace

Some African countries say intensified landslides and floods have rendered their adaptation efforts useless. Getty Images

In Uganda, communities in the Rwenzori region have been trying to protect themselves from landslides and floods by digging trenches and planting trees, helping to prevent soil erosion.

But it has not always been a success.

"The rains have become so intense that we have seen huge, sudden floods sweeping away these defences," said Jackson Muhindo, a local climate change and resilience coordinator for Oxfam.

"As a result, there have been multiple landslides on mountain slopes which have buried settlements and farms," he adds. "Adaptation works based on soil conservation are proving to be increasingly useless in the wake of these extreme weather events."

Adaptation low on the agenda

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change says more than 80% of developing countries have begun formulating and implementing their national adaptation plans.

But a study by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), published last month, suggests that the 46 of the world's least-developed countries don't have the financial means to "climate proof" themselves.

The IIED says these countries need at least $40bn (£28.8bn; €33.8bn) a year for their adaptation plans. But between 2014-18, just $5.9 billion of adaptation finance was received.

Developing countries say adaptation has not been a priority issue among their wealthier counterparts. Getty Images

Under the UN climate convention, the EU and 23 developed countries have pledged to make $100bn available every year to fund climate-related projects in developing nations - like schemes to cut emissions, and adaptations to mitigate damage caused by weather-induced disasters.

From 2020, this money will be passed on through the Green Climate Fund, Global Environment Facility and other such agencies. But developing countries argue that promise has largely been unkept.

A report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed developed countries had made nearly $80bn available in 2018 as total climate finance. But it found that only 21% of that money was provided for adapting to climate impacts, while most went towards cutting carbon emissions.

Developing countries have criticised climate finance figures provided by developed world, pointing out they also include money from regular aid payments.

Some experts say adaptation plans have been hampered by politics.

"When you have other issues like [bad] governance, poverty and now Covid, it becomes very difficult for the plans to work. They simply aren't a government's priority," according to Carlos Aguilar, a climate adaptation expert with Oxfam.

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(EDF) New IPCC Report Zeroes In On Urgency Of Reducing Methane

Environmental Defense Fund - Ilissa Ocko

The new report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the direst warning yet that we must rapidly and drastically slash climate emissions around the world and that reducing methane emissions is mission critical.

Though the report includes some important opportunities, it’s a very sober read.

Let’s get some of the central but troubling conclusions out of the way.

We’ll likely pass 1.5C earlier than expected

Conducted by more than 200 of the world’s most influential climate scientists, the new assessment concludes we’re on course to surpass 1.5 C of warming by 2040, roughly a decade earlier than predicted in IPCC’s 2018 landmark report.

A warming of 1.5 C will likely result in stronger and more frequent heat waves, heavier rainfall and flooding, more severe droughts and more powerful storms.

Each of these become more severe as we pass 1.5 C. Absent dramatic climate action, we could exceed 2 C of warming around midcentury and more than 5 C by 2100. The last time the planet sustained above a 2.5 C temperature increase was 3 million years ago.

Changes are happening everywhere, and some are accelerating and irreversible

The rate of sea level rise was twice as fast from 2006 to 2018 than from 1971 to 2006, and three times as fast as 1901 to 1971.

Carbon dioxide levels are the highest in at least 2 million years.

The last time the ocean warmed this quickly was at the end of the last ice age. Even as we reduce emissions, some consequences will continue before they abate: oceans will continue to warm and glaciers and ice sheets will continue to melt.

That’s a lot to process, and it will make some people feel hopeless. But there are important conclusions in the report that point us toward meaningful and powerful solutions.

Every degree matters

This report makes the existential threat of climate change undeniable, but it underscores the need for action now. IPCC concludes that every 0.5 C of global warming will worsen extreme events.

Extreme heat, heat waves and heavy rainfall will further intensify and become more frequent.

More areas will be affected by drought, and tropical cyclones will become more powerful. Likewise, every incremental increase in temperature rise we avoid matters, too.

The harsh conclusions by these scientists should not dissuade us from action, but should push us toward it.

Reducing methane is critical to slow warming and hit climate targets

Carbon dioxide is the most plentiful and longest-lasting climate driver.

Methane, though it is less prevalent, is more than 80 times as powerful a heat trapper over the first 10-20 years, and human-made methane emissions are responsible for at least a quarter of today’s warming.

That means reducing methane has an outsized impact on near-term temperature rise even as we work to reduce CO2 pollution.

In a red alert climate emergency, we need every available option to get us off life support, and IPCC recognizes that reducing methane is a critical one.

The report cites robust evidence that methane reductions will improve air quality and that sustained reductions are essential to achieving Paris Agreement targets.

This builds on findings from a scientific paper published in April, which showed a rapid, all-out effort to substantially reduce methane emissions could slow the rate of current warming by 30%.

Fully deploying known solutions could avoid 0.5 C of warming by end of century.

This avoided warming could be the difference between a 2 and 1.5 degree world and mean 10 million fewer people at risk from sea level rise, half the number of people stressed for water, and half the number of plant and animal species losing crucial habitat.

And the quickest, most cost-effective reduction technologies are in the oil and gas industry.

Decreasing methane from the agriculture and waste sectors, two other major emitters, is also important.

But reducing methane pollution from the oil and gas sector remains the fastest, lowest-cost opportunity to slow down the speed of warming now — and in light of the IPCC report, we need policymakers moving with greater urgency and ambition to eradicate these emissions.

Reducing methane will not solve the climate crisis alone, but it is an unparalleled opportunity to shave off incremental warming that can keep planetary temperatures below 2 C.

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(UK The Guardian) Global Food Supplies Will Suffer As Temperatures Rise – Climate Crisis Report

The Guardian - Fiona Harvey

Politicians around world continue to respond to report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Wheat harvesting season in Ghaziabad, India. When heat and humidity is high, people cannot work safely in the fields. Photograph: Pradeep Gaur/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

Food production around the world will suffer as global heating reaches 1.5C, with serious effects on the food supply in the next two decades, scientists have warned, following the biggest scientific report yet on the climate crisis.

Rising temperatures will mean there will be more times of year when temperatures exceed what crops can stand, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its sixth assessment report published on Monday.

Politicians around the world continued to respond to the report.

Boris Johnson, British prime minister, published a video on his social media channel, setting out the four areas he wanted to focus on in the run up to the autumn’s climate change summit: outlawing coal for power generation by 2040, ditto fossil fuels for transport; getting countries to stump up cash to help poorer nations with climate change; and ending “the massacre of the forests”.

US president Joe Biden was under pressure to get his climate change legislation passed after saying “We can’t wait to tackle the climate crisis. The signs are unmistakable. The science is undeniable. And the cost of inaction keeps mounting.”

In Australia PM Scott Morrison pointed the finger at China, saying in a press conference on Tuesday that it could not be ignored that the developing world accounts for “two-thirds of global emissions”, and adding that China’s emissions “accounted for more than the entire OECD combined”.

The Chinese government issued a statement to AFP saying that “China has insisted on prioritising sustainable, green and low-carbon development”. It added that President Xi Jinping intended to “strictly control” the growth of coal power plants.

Challenges to our food production systems will be just one of the impacts, the report found: changing rainfall patterns will leave many areas vulnerable to drought, while extreme weather will make agriculture harder and damage crops.

Bonnie Waring, senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, said: “Across the globe, over 80% of calories consumed come from just 10 crop plants, including rice, maize, and wheat.

Although a few staple crops – like soybean – may do better in a warmer future, warming temperatures and increasingly frequent droughts are likely to reduce yields of these key crops across many regions of the globe.”

The full spectrum of the damage will not be fully revealed until next year, when the IPCC publishes the second part of its landmark assessment, which will cover the impacts of climate breakdown on key areas of human life and the planet.

The first part of the report, published this week, deals with the physical science basis of climate change – that is, what will happen to the atmosphere, seas and land – but from those finding many of the likely harms to agriculture can already be assessed.

Ilan Kelman, professor of disasters and health at University College London, said: ““If we fail to act, then significant numbers of people could face major problems with food. Increased heat and humidity will harm current crops and livestock, with droughts and floods having the potential to wipe out harvests as well. Massive shifts in agricultural practices, including changes to crops and livestock, would be needed to counter these effects.”

David Reay, professor of carbon management at Edinburgh University, added: “For key staples like rice – the main source of nourishment for over a billion of us – warming is not just changing rainfall patterns, it is threatening the glacial meltwaters that irrigate millions of hectares of South Asian croplands. ”

Extreme weather this year has also revealed another major impact: when “wet bulb” temperatures soar, people cannot safely work in the fields. These conditions occur when both heat and humidity are high, and people’s bodies cannot wick away sweat efficiently.

Some people have speculated that warming temperatures could be good for agriculture, by allowing for longer growing seasons in northern latitudes, and from the fertilising effect of more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which plants absorb from the air as they grow.

Mark Maslin, professor of earth system science at UCL, dismissed these claims. “Any benefits are likely to be small and will be outweighed by the damages and the risk of extreme weather,” he said, warning that food prices rises will also be a major danger.

Animal husbandry will also be affected, though reducing our reliance on meat and dairy products is likely to be one of the key ways of slowing global heating: Methane, much of it from agricultural sources including ruminants and manure, is one of the leading causes of climate breakdown identified in the IPCC assessment report.

Rob Percival, head of food and health policy at the UK’s Soil Association, said people did not need to give up eating or producing meat, but that food consumption patterns needed to change alongside food production.

“A rapid transition to agroecological farming offers a healthier and more sustainable approach to producing our food and requires a shift in our diets to less and better meat, with an emphasis on fresh fruit and vegetables and the consumption of more pulses and legumes,” he said.

Shefali Sharma, director of the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, told the Guardian that all areas would be affected, not just the poorer regions of the world where many farmers are already vulnerable, and that all governments must act urgently.

“Governments must begin taking urgent steps now to build resilience into agri-food systems. This means building soil health, agricultural biodiversity in crops and animals, serious extension work that builds on traditional knowledge and local breeds and seeds and adequate support for adaptation.”

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