Foreign Policy - Anchal VohraOne of the regions hardest hit by climate change is also one least
equipped to deal with it.
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A wildfire which engulfing a Mediterranean resort region on
Turkey's southern coast near the town of Manavgat, on July 30, 2021. AFP via Getty Images
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Author
Anchal Vohra is a columnist for Foreign Policy and a
freelance TV correspondent and commentator on the Middle East based in
Beirut.
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This summer, several picturesque countries in the Middle East became
tinderboxes. As extreme temperatures and severe droughts ravaged the region,
forests burned, and cities became islands of unbearable heat.
In
June, Kuwait recorded a temperature of 53.2 degrees Celsius (127.76 degrees
Fahrenheit), while Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia all recorded
over 50 degrees (122 degrees).
A month later, temperatures in Iraq
spiked to 51.5 degrees (124.7 degrees), and Iran recorded a close 51 degrees
(123.8 degrees).
Worst of all, this is just the start of a trend. The Middle East is warming
at
twice the global average and by 2050 will be 4 degrees Celsius warmer as compared with the 1.5
degree mark that scientists have prescribed to save humanity.
The
World Bank says extreme climatic conditions will become routine and the region
could face
four months of scorching sun every year. According to Germany’s Max Planck
Institute, many cities in the Middle East may literally become
uninhabitable before the end of the century. And the region, ravaged by war and mired
in sectarianism, may be singularly ill-prepared to face the challenges that
threaten its collective existence.
Since the region is split between haves and have-nots, it is the poorer
cousins of the oil-rich countries that have been the first to face social
disorder over the lack of basic amenities, such as water and electricity, that
people desperately need to survive the extreme heat.
These
countries are ruled by ineffective governments, autocrats, or clerics and have
dilapidated energy infrastructure and deep-rooted structural deficiencies that
block the promotion of and technological innovation in renewable energy.
Experts say political and economic reforms that strengthen
institutions and promote businesses to think freely are essential to reduce
carbon emissions and ensure a shift to clean energy in the Middle East.
Greenhouse gas emissions have more than
tripled in the region over the last three decades and caused concern among
experts that a steep rise in temperatures on the one hand and lack of basic
services on the other are making the region a more desperate and dangerous
place.
Jos Lelieveld, an expert on the climate of the Middle East and Mediterranean
at the Max Planck Institute, said the Middle East has overtaken the European
Union in greenhouse gas emissions even though it is “particularly strongly
affected” by climate change.
“In several cities in the Middle
East, temperatures have been soaring well in excess of 50 degrees Celsius,”
Lelieveld said. “If nothing changes, cities may experience temperatures of 60
degrees Celsius in the future, which will be dangerous for those who do not
have access to air conditioning.”
Air conditioners have become a luxury even for the relatively wealthy in
countries such as Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
These
countries are encumbered by war, Western sanctions, or a self-serving ruling
elite and have witnessed large protests against a lack of basic services as
temperatures rise and droughts parch the fields. The scenes of social unrest
have offered a glimpse into the future of the region that most acutely feels
the impact of a changing climate.
In Iraq, record-breaking heat last month pushed people onto the streets. They
blocked roads, burned tires, and in anger surrounded power plants that had to
be secured by armed forces.
Ironically, oil-rich Basra in southern
Iraq faces among the longest power outages and has been the epicenter of
demonstrations in which at least three Iraqis have been killed. According to
experts, political instability is the leading cause behind Iraq’s electricity
crisis.
In Lebanon, a similar scenario unfolded this month. The Lebanese are already
grappling with myriad crises and are frustrated at the inaction of the
political elite. As fuel supply dwindled, scenes of chaos emerged from across
the country. Some people looted fuel tankers, others ransacked power plants,
and yet more carried firearms to fuel stations to get ahead of hundreds in
line.
Power outages lasting three hours had been routine in Lebanon since the civil
war ended in 1990. But as the economy collapsed in 2019, blackouts
became longer and generators louder, roaring through the country.
On Aug. 12, the central bank lifted subsidies on fuel, and
generators ran dry. Lights went off, and even those in affluent
neighborhoods—used to air conditioners—had to cope with the sweltering heat.
The local press reported nearly daily skirmishes between people at
gas stations that necessitated the presence of the Lebanese army to watch over
the distribution and keep peace. In one incident, a confiscated fuel tanker
exploded and
killed nearly 30 people as the Lebanese army was distributing gasoline. Doctors said the bodies
were charred beyond recognition.
The political class in Lebanon has clung to power and refused to usher in
reforms to revamp the highly subsidized but loss-making electricity sector.
Experts say Lebanon has massive potential to not only make the
enterprise profitable but also deploy those profits to
diversify the energy mix and capitalize on ample wind and sun energy. A coherent policy would
not only bring respite in piping hot months but also reduce carbon emissions
and hence overall global warming.
In 2017, Iran recorded the hottest official temperature in the region of 54
degrees Celsius (129.2 degrees Fahrenheit) and crossed 50 degrees (122
degrees) last month. But recurrent droughts have made the country’s
hydroelectricity plants redundant and in turn caused a dip in production at a
time when demand for electricity is rising.
In July, different
cities in Iran
erupted in protests, with some demonstrators chanting “Death to the dictator”
and “Death to Khamenei,” in reference to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s
supreme leader and the most powerful man in the country.
In Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran, people blocked roads and burned
tires to protest water scarcity. At least
three protesters were killed allegedly in firing by the state security forces, while human rights
activists claim the number to be higher.
Human Rights Watch said
“videos shared on social media show security officials using
firearms and teargas and shooting toward protesters” and called for the
deaths to be investigated.
Droughts between 2006 and 2011 in Syria deepened a socioeconomic divide
between rural and urban areas and are believed to have been one of the reasons
that led to the Syrian civil war. In Yemen, a protracted war seems to have
worsened the water crisis.
Yemen’s freshwater underground sources
are fast drying, leaving the country parched. Its annual per capita share of
water is just
120 cubic meters, compared with the global per capital share of 7,500 cubic meters.
Before the war, Yemen’s water ministry had imposed conditions on the drilling
of wells, but during the conflict, it was impossible to monitor. Over the last
decade, Yemen has fast depleted its already meager freshwater resources.
Johan Schaar, an associate senior fellow at the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute, argues that regional cooperation could mitigate the water
crisis and reduce the region’s carbon footprint.
“Most important
in terms of regional cooperation is to agree on the use and management of
shared water resources that will become more scarce and more variable due to
extreme weather events, both rivers and groundwater,” said Schaar, who has an
expertise in climate change.
“There are few bilateral
transboundary agreements on water and no basinwide agreements for rivers
shared by several countries. The water ministers’ council under the Arab
League drafted a regional convention on shared water resources a few years
ago, but it was never ratified.”
Instead of cooperating on the use of common resources, the region is caught up
in conflicts. “None of them have invested more than marginally in reducing
[greenhouse gas] emissions,” Schaar said.
“In addition, conflict,
instability, and sanctions have consequences for their need and ability to
adapt. Conflict leads to displacement and impoverishment of populations,
making them more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Instability
shrinks resources and policy space for the long-term planning and investments
required for adaptation.”
The connection between climate change and the revolutions and wars of the Arab
Spring is hotly debated. But there are clear and unarguable linkages between
poor governance, environmental mismanagement, urbanization, and urban unrest
in communities poorly served with water, air conditioning, and other
amenities.
The thought of what will happen in these cities as
climate change worsens living conditions, if the standards of governance
remain the same, is a frightening one.
“Climate change and the
consequent increase in weather extremes add to the challenges imposed by
regional conflicts, leading to additional incentives for people to migrate,
for example,” Lelieveld said.
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