Lethal Heating: 09/13/21

13/09/2021

(UK The Conversation) Climate Change: Ditch 90% Of World’s Coal And 60% Of Oil And Gas To Limit Warming To 1.5°C – Experts

The Conversation - Daniel Welsby | James Price | Steve Pye

Authors

Daniel Welsby is a PhD Candidate in Energy Systems, University College London
James Price is a Senior Research Associate in Energy, University College London
Steve Pye is an Associate Professor in Energy Systems, University College London

Global mean surface temperatures reached 1.2°C above the pre-industrial average in 2020, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned in its recent report that Earth could hit 1.5°C in as little as a decade.

The 0.3°C separating these two temperatures make a world of difference.

Scientists believe that stabilising our warming world’s temperature at 1.5°C could help avoid the most serious effects of climate change.

Fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas are the source of just over 80% of the world’s energy. Burning them accounts for 89% of human-derived CO₂ emissions.

To avert catastrophic warming, the global community must rapidly reduce how much of these fuels it extracts and burns. Our new paper, published in Nature, revealed just how tight the world’s remaining carbon budget is likely to be.

In order to hold global warming at 1.5°C, we found that nearly 60% of global oil and fossil gas reserves will need to remain in the ground in 2050. Almost all of the world’s coal – 90% – will need to be spared from factory and power plant furnaces.

Our analysis also showed that global oil and gas production must peak immediately and fall by 3% each year until mid-century.

Fossil fuels still provide most of the world’s energy. Rudmer Zwerver/Shutterstock

Even meeting these stringent limits may not be enough on its own to stabilise global warming at 1.5°C, however.

That’s because we based our estimates on a carbon budget compatible with just a 50% probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Our model simply could not be pushed to a greater chance of achieving the 1.5C target because it was already at its limit, given our projections of fossil fuel demand in the near future.

Our analysis also relies on the large-scale deployment of technologies capable of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere sometime in the future.

By 2050, our scenario expects around four gigatonnes a year will be being captured by so-called negative emission technologies.

There remains a lot of doubt about whether it is even possible to sufficiently scale these technologies up in time.

So, to aim for a better chance of achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal and to lower the risk of relying on as yet unproven technologies, we argue that our estimates of how much of the world’s fossil fuels cannot safely be extracted should be treated as cautious underestimates. The world may need to be even more ambitious.

Fossil fuel rationing

We estimated how much fossil fuel production in each region must fall and how fast based on a global energy system model.

We allocated the remaining shares of fossil fuel production allowed within the budget based on the costs and carbon intensity of producing different oil and gas assets, and how cheap low and zero-carbon technologies are in different parts of the world.

Our analysis showed that total fossil fuel production is limited by a global carbon budget. Production growing in one region of the world will require a decrease in another to keep the global trajectory pointing downwards.

A mechanism such as the Global Fossil Fuel Registry – a public database of all known reserves – could provide the necessary transparency for an international effort, with the cooperation of governments and fossil fuel producers.

The US and Russia sit on half of the world’s coal but must leave 97% of it in the ground. Australia, which recently pledged to keep producing and exporting coal beyond 2030, would need to keep 95% of its reserves underground.

Oil-producing states in the Middle East must not extract around two-thirds of their reserves, while most of Canada’s tar sand oil must not be burned, along with all of the fossil fuel buried beneath the Arctic.

Our analysis suggests that many countries will need to move out of fossil fuel production relatively quickly, which raises concerns about how the transition can be managed fairly. Countries such as Iraq and Angola have a high dependency on fossil fuels for government revenues.

They will need support to diversify their economies in a managed way – including financial and technological assistance to develop new low-carbon industries – and to decarbonise domestically to reduce their own reliance on fossil fuels.

Fossil fuel production must fall most sharply in wealthier countries like the US. Robert Coy/Alamy Stock Photo

The necessary energy transformation highlighted in this research will require a range of policy levers, including measures that drive down fossil fuel consumption, such as banning petrol cars or promoting renewable electricity generation, and those targeting production itself, including restrictions on new fossil fuel extraction licenses.

Alliances between countries are also likely to be important to build political support for reducing fossil fuel production. The Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, formed by Denmark and Costa Rica, has pressured other countries to halt investment in new oil and gas projects.

Phasing out global fossil fuel production at the rate suggested in our study is possible, but it will rely on some of the measures we’ve described expanding and gaining the support of large producing countries and companies – those which have benefited most from the fossil fuel era.

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(BBC) Climate Change: Vulnerable Nations Call For 'Emergency Pact'

BBC News - Matt McGrath

Image source Getty Images

The countries most vulnerable to climate change are calling for an "emergency pact" to tackle rising temperatures.

The group wants all countries to agree radical steps to avoid "climate catastrophe" at the upcoming COP26 meeting in Glasgow.

Green campaigners are urging a postponement of the gathering, citing problems with vaccines for delegates.

The Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) says the event is critical and cannot wait.

Representing some 1.2 billion people, the CVF consists of countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America and the Pacific.

The group has been key in pushing the rest of the world to accept the idea of keeping the rise in global temperatures to under 1.5C this century.

This was incorporated into the Paris agreement in 2015.

Recent research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the threshold will be passed in little over a decade at current rates of carbon emissions.

In less than two months, global leaders will gather in Glasgow for COP26, the most critical meeting on climate change since Paris.

Ahead of the Glasgow meeting, the CVF has issued a manifesto for what the conference must deliver to keep the planet safe and protect the most vulnerable.

Environmental groups have suggested postponing the meeting, on the grounds that vaccine distribution is inequitable and that delegates from poorer countries face huge bills for quarantine hotels when they arrive in the UK.

In Bangladesh, erosion continues as river levels keep rising. Image source EPA

However, the CVF member states insist the meeting must go ahead in person, and are calling for support and "facilitated access" to ensure inclusive participation.

The UK government has responded to these calls by agreeing to pay the quarantine hotel expenses of any delegate, observer or media from a developing country.

The vulnerable group says that progress on climate change has stalled and COP26 should move forward with what it terms a "climate emergency pact".

This would see every country put forward a new climate plan every year between now and 2025.

At present, signatories of the Paris agreement are only obliged to put forward new plans every five years.

The vulnerable nations say that richer countries must fulfil their obligations to deliver $100bn in climate finance per year over the 2020-24 period.

A man watches as the sea rushes in on the Marshall Islands. Image source Getty Images

The CVF nations want this money to be split 50-50 between cutting carbon and helping countries adapt to the threat posed by rising temperatures.

The countries also want the UK to "take full responsibility" for this aspect of the negotiations, saying it is vital to restore confidence in the Paris pact.

Among the other areas that the most vulnerable nations want to see progress on is the question of debt-for-climate swaps.

Many of the world's poorest countries have large debt burdens, and these have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic which has stretched finances even further.

In a debt-for-climate swap, a country can reduce what it owes to international creditors by directing the debt service payments to fund renewable energy or greater protection for nature.

Many campaigners have argued that the COP26 meeting should be postponed. Image source Getty Images

Many campaigners have argued that the COP26 meeting should be postponed.

One such restructuring was recently announced by Belize where the debt money will now go to support marine conservation projects instead.

"Vulnerable countries have unique needs - and public-private collaboration will be key to addressing them," said Nigel Topping, who's the UK's high-level climate action champion for COP26.

"Whether it is in debt for nature swaps such as the recent Belize announcement or in increasing public sector capability to structure investment projects to attract private finance, the aim is to accelerate progress in this area so that 2022 becomes the year of climate action solidarity."

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(NPR) Climate Change Is Making Natural Disasters Worse — Along With Our Mental Health

NPR - Sharon Pruitt-Young

Crews set a backfire in an effort to gain control of the massive Caldor fire near the Tahoe basin in California on Aug. 26. Ty O'Neil/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images

Through fires and hurricanes, through lethal heat waves and flash floods, the world seems to be ending — or at least, that's what it feels like.

All around us, we're seeing the effects of climate change. Wildfires are raging through the West. Much of southeast Louisiana was flattened by Hurricane Ida, and parts of New York and New Jersey are digging out from disastrous flooding.

And if it seems like natural disasters are happening more and more often, that's because they are: Climate change has helped drive a fivefold increase in the number of weather-related disasters in the last 50 years. Climate change means disasters are happening simultaneously, too.

These disasters are getting more severe, too. Weather records are being broken thanks to climate change turning previously impossible occurrences into startling realities.

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First Step To 'Eco-Grieving' Over Climate Change? Admit There's A Problem

As a result, many people are dealing with what's commonly referred to as "eco grief," a type of mental exhaustion that stems from accepting the harsh realities of climate change and feeling overwhelmed or hopeless.

Added to that is "disaster fatigue," another type of emotional tiredness that comes from dealing with an abundance of bad news and steadily occurring crises — like near-constant headlines of devastating disasters.

Jeffrey Garcia, an engineer living in Glen Burnie, Md., has grown up with an awareness of ecological problems thanks to a childhood spent in Albuquerque, N.M., where drought is a persistent specter, he said.

Today, he, like many others, is still troubled by what he sees as "cascading issues" and while he understands the nuance — the world isn't going to immediately burn down — there's still a persistent sense of dread, he explained to NPR. One that he tries to combat with knowledge and action.

"The voice of anxiety feeds on exaggeration and hyperbole. And while it is easy to feel that flash of fear ... there's over 7 billion people on this planet that all have a vested interest in [the worst] not happening," he said.

Environment

Should We Be Having Kids In The Age Of Climate Change?

Still, the instability of that future has led Garcia and his wife to reconsider whether to have children.

It's a sentiment that he's not alone in; Katie Oran, a 25-year-old wildfire planner working in Sacramento, Calif., feels much the same way.

"I think almost every single one of my friends, none of us want to have children," Oran said.

"Just because thinking about bringing children into an uncertain future doesn't necessarily seem fair. We talk a lot about where we should move, where is safe ... I don't really know if anywhere is safe [though]."

The string of disasters is making us anxious

If you're worried about the environment, you aren't alone. A poll conducted by the American Psychiatric Association last year showed that nearly 70% of adults in the country are at least somewhat anxious about what climate change will do to the planet, and slightly more than half are worried about what toll that will take on their mental health.

On Sept. 3, a motorist drives past houses damaged by Hurricane Ida in Grand Isle, La. Ida made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane, causing flooding, wind damage and power outages along the Gulf Coast. Sean Rayford/Getty Images

"We are burned out and our resilience is really down," Lise Van Susteren, a psychiatrist, author and environmental activist, told NPR. "It's making us raw to all of these new challenges that we face. They're coming too fast, too furious, and too many."

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An unfortunate side effect of being informed are the emotions, like helplessness, that come alongside that knowledge.

Some, like members of a climate change support group in Salt Lake City, deal with those feelings by banding together. But it's harder for people like Oran, whose jobs give them a front-row seat to the worst of what's happening to the planet.

It's scary, Oran said, not knowing exactly what will come next.

"There's a lot of unknowns about how already-occurring natural disasters will get worse, whether it's flooding or hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, wildfires, and so I think that with the unknowns and uncertainty, it's difficult to plan for the future," she said.

"And I think that we can work as hard as we can to retrofit homes and to build with non-combustible materials and to create defensible space around homes. But fire will come."

Taking action may be the answer — not just for the planet but for your mind

Worsening mental health amid ongoing disasters is something that's on the radar for mental health providers, too, Van Susteren says.

"We know that if we don't tend to what people are feeling, that they will turn inward on this and they will find themselves increasingly alone and under siege themselves internally," she said. "I've said as bad as the storms are outside, the storms inside are even worse."

The effects of climate change that we're seeing are already mentally draining (and for many who live in affected areas, directly damaging), but unfortunately, experiencing these natural disasters amid an ongoing global pandemic is exacerbating the situation. As Van Susteren explained, "The pandemic has made us more raw."

Climate

Enough With The Climate Jargon: Scientists Aim For Clearer Messages On Global Warming

As with any mental health problem, seeking professional support is encouraged whenever possible. Thankfully, there are therapists who specialize in climate anxiety, who can be found on directories — like this one — listing "climate-aware" mental health professionals.

Another solution? Action, however small, is a good way to start. Van Susteren suggests focusing on the three P's: personal, professional and political.

Reflecting on what you can do personally to combat climate change can mean examining your own carbon footprint and ways to lessen it.

Professionally, you can connect with those you work with to raise awareness and make changes at your workplace.

And finally, there's always work to be done politically.

"That means that we're all now charged with being enlightened citizens who can change leadership," Susteren explained. "Someone wise once said when the people lead, the leaders will follow. We need to make sure that elected officials who understand what we're up against are writing policy that reflects it."

Even in the midst of what feels like a burning world, there's always something you can do.

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