23/09/2021

(Vice) A Warning Sign Of A Mass Extinction Event Is On The Rise, Scientists Say

ViceBecky Ferreira

Toxic microbial blooms thrived during the Great Dying, the most severe extinction in Earth's history, and they are proliferating again due to human activity.

Image: Andrew Lichtenstein / Contributor via Getty Images
Fish die as a result of algal bloom in Florida, 2021. 

If you live near a freshwater river or lake, odds are good that you have seen warning signs about harmful algal and bacterial blooms posted on its shores.

Alarmingly, a new study reports that these blooms may be early indicators of an ongoing ecological disaster, caused by humans, that eerily parallels the worst extinction event in Earth’s history.

Some 251 million years ago, the end-Permian event (EPE), popularly known as the “Great Dying,” wiped out nearly 90 percent of species on Earth, making it the most severe loss of life in our planet’s history.

Ominous parallels of that upheaval are now showing up on Earth, according to a team led by Chris Mays, a postdoctoral researcher and palaeobotanist at the Swedish Museum of Natural History in Stockholm.

The researchers found that toxic algal and bacterial blooms during the Great Dying are similar to a recent microbial proliferation in modern lakes and rivers—a trend that has been linked to human activities such as greenhouse gas emissions (especially carbon dioxide), deforestation, and soil loss. 

“We are not there yet,” Mays said in an email, referring to the conditions of the EPE. “There was probably a six-fold increase in carbon dioxide during the EPE, but today carbon dioxide levels haven't yet doubled since pre-industrial times.” 

“But with the present steep increase in carbon dioxide, we're playing catch-up pretty well,” he cautioned. “And the chances of harmful microbial bloom events, along with many other deleterious facets of change (e.g., intense hurricanes, floods, wildfires), also rise...all the way up this steep carbon dioxide slope.” 

The repeated correlation of these blooms with mass extinction events is “a disconcerting signal for future environmental change,” report the researchers in a study published on Friday in the journal Nature Communications. Indeed, there’s a lot of evidence to suggest we are currently in the midst of yet another mass extinction event, caused by humans. 

Not only do microbial blooms transform freshwater habitats into “dead zones” that can both choke out other species, thereby increasing the severity of extinction events, they can also delay the recovery of ecosystems by millions of years, the team noted.

Mays and his colleagues reached this troubling conclusion by analyzing fossil records near Sydney, Australia, that were laid down before, during, and after the end-Permian extinction.

Though the exact mechanisms behind the Great Dying are a matter of debate, it was driven in part by an intense bout of volcanic eruptions that sparked a dramatic uptick in global temperatures and greenhouse gases emissions. Wildfires, droughts, and other disruptions swept across the woodlands, causing a collapse of plant life and widespread deforestation. 

The sudden loss of forests, which act as a sink for carbon, created a noticeable “coal gap” during the end-Permian that exposes this long-term interruption in carbon sequestration. Nutrients and soils that had once been metabolized by these botanical ecosystems instead seeped into nearby freshwater habitats, bolstering microbial blooms that were already thriving as a result of higher temperature and atmospheric carbon. 

These microbial communities are an integral part of freshwater ecosystems worldwide, but the effects of human-driven climate change—including wildfires, deforestation, soil loss, and drought—are driving a new bloom boom. 

“The three main ingredients for this kind of toxic soup are accelerated greenhouse gas emissions, high temperatures, and abundant nutrients,” Mays said. “During the EPE and other extreme warming events, volcanic eruptions provided the first two, while sudden deforestation caused the third. Specifically: when the trees were wiped out, the soils bled into the rivers and lakes, providing all the nutrients that the microbes would need.”

“Today, humans are providing all three of the ingredients in abundance,” he noted. “Carbon dioxide and warming are the inevitable byproducts of burning fossil fuels for hundreds of years, and we've provided copious nutrients into our waterways, mostly from agriculture and logging. Together, this mix has led to a sharp increase in freshwater toxic blooms.”

This pattern threatens to spread the reach of toxic sludge and create the kind of dangerous dead zones that contributed to the enormous ecological turmoil, and slow recovery, of the Great Dying. Indeed, Mays’ team drew comparisons between the End-Permian’s blooms and those that are flourishing today, including their texture, filamentous structure, strong fluorescence, and concentrations. 

“The concentrations of algae from the end-Permian event, the worst mass extinction in Earth's history, were as high as some bloom events we see today,” Mays said. “But the EPE blooms occurred without humans helping.”

The team notes that “the optimal growth temperature range” for these freshwater microbes is 20–32°C, which matches the estimated summer air temperatures during the early Triassic, the period that immediately followed the Permian, and is also within the range of projected temperatures at mid-latitudes for the year 2100, according to the study. 

“The beauty of looking at prehistoric extreme warming events, like the end-Permian, is that they provide, arguably, a cleaner signal of the consequences of climate change,” Mays noted. “This is because the fossils and rocks show us the results of warming without additional messy influences from humans” such as “nutrient influx from agriculture, deforestation via logging, extinctions by poaching/overfishing,” and more. 

“As it turns out, you can cause a large number of extinctions simply by releasing a lot of greenhouse gas in a short time frame,” he continued. “It doesn't matter where the gases come from―volcanoes, airplanes, coal-fired power plants―the results may end up the same.”

Clearly, it’s not encouraging to see the same ecological trends of the worst mass extinction event in Earth’s history popping up in freshwater systems all around us. Tracking the continued emergence of these blooms could help scientists predict the environmental costs of the climate crisis in the coming years and decades, which may also include an extremely delayed recovery of the ecosystems lost to the advance of microbial dead zones.

Mays and his colleagues also plan to study the role of wildfires in mass extinction, as well as the burning of crucial carbon sinks such as the wetlands of South America or the peatlands of Siberia.

“As we've seen in the fossil record, without these regions of carbon-dioxide-drawdown, the world can stay intolerably warm for hundreds of millennia,” Mays said. “While wildfires play an important role in some ecosystems, I think most scientists would agree that preventing the burning of carbon sinks should be a global priority if we want to help minimize the long-term impacts of warming.”

“Unlike the species that suffered the mass extinctions of the past,” he concluded, “we have the opportunity to prevent these toxic blooms by keeping our waterways clean and curbing our greenhouse gas emissions.”

Links

(ABC) China Will No Longer Fund Coal Projects Abroad, President Xi Jinping Pledges At The UN General Assembly

ABC News - AFP

The Chinese President remotely addresses the 76th session of the UNGA at UN headquarters in a pre-recorded message, September 21, 2021. (AP: UN Web TV)

Key Points
  • China and the US are competing at the UN General Assembly to show leadership on climate change
  • The US has doubled its contribution to countries affected by climate change under the Paris accord
  • Last year, China brought three times more coal-fired power into operation than the rest of the world
China will stop funding coal projects overseas, Chinese President Xi Jinping has announced, all but ending the flow of public aid for the dirty energy contributing to the climate crisis.

Mr Xi made his announcement at the UN General Assembly where US President Joe Biden, seeking to show leadership in a growing competition with China, promised to double Washington's contribution to countries hardest hit by climate change.

China is still investing in coal, reducing the impact of Mr Xi's commitment, but it is by far the largest funder of coal projects in developing countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh as it goes on a global infrastructure-building blitz with its Belt and Road Initiative.

Mr Xi has vowed to accelerate efforts for China, the world's largest emitter, to go carbon neutral by 2060.

The State Bank of China has been accused by activists of being the largest financier of coal projects worldwide. (Reuters: Stringer/File photo)

"This requires tremendous hard work and we will make every effort to meet these goals," he said in a recorded address.
"China will step up support for other developing countries in developing green and low-carbon energy and will not build new coal-fired power projects abroad," Mr Xi said.
US climate envoy John Kerry responded to China's pledge not to build coal power plants abroad, saying he is "absolutely delighted" by the move.

China's announcement follows similar moves by South Korea and Japan, the only other nations that offered significant funds for coal projects.

Helen Mountford, vice-president for climate and economics at the World Resources Institute, said it was "a historic turning point away from the world's dirtiest fossil fuel."

"China's pledge shows that the firehose of international public financing for coal is being turned off," she said.

China brought 38.4 gigawatts of new coal-fired power into operation last year — more than three times what was brought on line globally.

Non-governmental groups in a letter earlier this year said the state-run Bank of China was the largest single financier of coal projects, pumping in $US35 billion ($48.2 billion) since the Paris climate agreement was signed in 2015.

Biden doubles US support for climate-affected countries

China's promise comes as momentum builds ahead of a UN conference in November in Glasgow which aims to raise the ambitions of the Paris accord.

Support for action has been growing with the planet breaking record after record on high temperatures and witnessing devastating severe weather linked to climate change, including fires, severe storms and flooding.

President Joe Biden addresses the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York, September 21, 2021. (AP: Eduardo Munoz/Pool)

One key section of the Paris accord that has lagged behind is mobilising the $US100 billion ($137 billion) a year promised for nations hardest hit by global warming.

Mr Biden, who has put the environment high on his agenda after defeating his predecessor, climate change sceptic Donald Trump, said the United States would double its contribution.
"This will make the United States a leader in public climate finance," Mr Biden said.
Experts said that the announcement would take the American contribution to approximately $US11.4 billion ($15.7 billion) annually.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "encouraged" by the "important" US and Chinese announcements but warned that far more needed to be done to address climate change.

Last week Mr Guterres warned the world was on a "catastrophic" path to 2.7 degrees Celsius heating according to a new study by UN scientists.

The figure would shatter the temperature targets of the Paris climate agreement, which aimed for warming well below 2C and preferably capped at 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Links

(AU) Updated Mapping Shows Aussie Beaches And Homes At Risk From Sea Level Rise

NEWS.com.auCharis Chang

New mapping shows some of Australia’s most loved beaches may be lost if the world is too slow to act on climate change.


Coastal Risk Australia

Want to know what the Australian coastline may look like in 2100?

Coastal Risk Australia (CRA) has been developed to show you just that.

It is an interactive map tool designed to communicate coastal inundation associated with sea level rise to the year 2100.

Using Google Earth Engine technology, CRA allows you to investigate the extent of coastal inundation using the latest 3D models of the Australian coastline. 

Data have been captured using airborne LiDAR technology to create detailed digital elevation models (DEMs), which are then combined with ‘bucket-fill’ inundation modelling to create the map-based visualisations.

This capability has been developed through long term investments and partnerships between FrontierSI and NGIS Australia.

The DEMs which underpin the inundation models are now available for download from Geoscience Australia at http://www.ga.gov.au/elvis/.
Some of Australia’s most pristine coastlines and iconic beaches could be washed away if action on climate change is not taken.

Updated interactive mapping from Coastal Risk Australia reveals the damage that beaches like Byron Bay and Manly in NSW, as well as Bells Beach and Brighton in Victoria could experience if the world follows a high emissions pathway.

It comes as analysis from the Reserve Bank of Australia found house prices were expected to fall by 10 per cent or more in some areas by 2050 because of climate change.

Global sea levels have already risen by 20cm (between 1901 and 2018) and the Australasia region, which includes New Zealand, has experienced even higher rates than the global average. More coastal flooding is expected as levels rise even further.

The latest predictions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report reveal further increases are largely locked in, with a rise of about 15cm to 30cm expected by around 2050.

“There is high confidence that [the] sea level will continue to rise, and well beyond the end of this century,” Dr James Goldie of the Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub told news.com.au last month.

“This will contribute to increased coastal flooding and shoreline retreat along sandy coasts throughout Australia.”

The changes beyond 2050 will largely depend on what the world does to bring down emissions.

Coastal Risk Australia mapping showing the impacts of a 0.84m sea level rise in Byron Bay when combined with a high tide.



Map showing current levels of flooding in Byron.

Based on the current climate pledges that countries have made, there could be 3-4C of warming by 2100 and this is likely to see sea levels rise by about 70cm. If warming is kept to 2C, sea level rise could be as low as 50cm.

If the world follows a high emissions path, levels could rise between 63cm and 101cm.

The Coastal Risk Australia website, developed in partnership by FrontierSI and NGIS Australia, has based its mapping on a rise of 84cm, which is a mid-range value for the high emissions scenario.

Previously it used a figure of 74cm for its high emissions scenario.

The update shows that a sea level rise of 84cm combined with a high tide could see Byron Bay beach and large areas around its waterways inundated.

It also found homes and streets in suburbs in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania could be increasingly flooded.

“Australia is facing significant challenges, one of which is being more resilient to climate. The Coastal Risk Australia tool aims to place scientific modelling into the hands of the people so they can see for themselves how the areas they live in could be impacted in the future by climate change,” FrontierSI chief executive officer Graeme Kernich said.

NGIS Australia executive director Nathan Eaton said the organisation wanted to communicate how the IPCC’s latest projections would impact Australian coastal communities.

“By 2050, sea level change of 15cm to 30cm will be unavoidable. This means that coastal flooding will become worse during storm surges,” he said.

Large sandy stretches of Australian beaches could be washed away, including:

● Bells Beach, Brighton, Ocean Grove, St Kilda and Wye River beaches in Victoria

● Byron Bay and Manly in NSW

● Agnes Water, Burleigh Heads, Noosa and Whitehaven in Queensland

● Cottesloe and Coogee beaches in Western Australia

● Glenelg in South Australia

Some of Australia’s most pristine and famous beaches could disappear. Picture: Tim Marsden

Homes and streets in the following suburbs could be increasingly flooded, including:

● Albert Park, the Docklands, Middle Park, St Kilda and Williamstown in Victoria

● Bulimba and Hamilton in Queensland

● North Fremantle in Western Australia

● West Lakes in South Australia

● Lauderdale in Tasmania

Popular coastal tourist spots could be inundated, including:

● Queenscliff and Point Lonsdale in Victoria

● Ballina and Byron Bay in NSW

● Busselton and Mandurah in Western Australia

Links