29/10/2021

(AU SMH) The Charts You Need To Understand The Climate Emergency

Sydney Morning HeraldLaura Chung

The world is getting hotter with global average temperatures increasing by more than 1.2 degrees since the late 19th century. Australia has experienced its highest annual mean temperature in 2019 and its warmest spring on record in 2020.

Climate charts Credit: Mary-Anne Lea Supplied

Climate change didn’t occur overnight. But with the COP26 conference in Glasgow imminent, here are 10 graphs which explain the crisis gripping the planet.

The world is getting hotter

Last year tied with 2016 as the hottest on record, with global average temperatures increasing by more than 1.2 degrees since the late 19th century.

Seventeen of the 20 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000, with Australia experiencing its highest annual mean temperature in 2019 and its warmest spring on record in 2020.



“Whether one year is a record or not is not really that important — the important things are long-term trends. With these trends, and as the human impact on the climate increases, we have to expect that records will continue to be broken,” NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies director Gavin Schmidt said earlier this year.

Arctic sea ice is decreasing

Sea ice cover and thickness have declined significantly in the Artic Ocean since satellite measurements began in 1979.

The ice cover has fluctuated on the Antarctica continent, but the melt from Greenland and Antarctica has contributed about 1.4 cm of global sea level rise from 2003 to 2019.



And sea levels are increasing


Global mean sea levels have risen by about 25 centimetres since 1880, with half of this rise occurring since 1970.

Sea level rise rates across Australia vary, but the largest increase has been to the north and south-east. This poses a serious threat for coastal communities that will experience storm surges and coastal erosion. If global temperatures rise more than 1.5 degrees many of the islands will become uninhabitable.



Oil, coal and gas are still the main sources of energy globally


The US, India and Russia contributed the largest declines in energy consumption, while China saw the largest increase in energy consumption - about 2.1 per cent.


While oil was the most popular energy source, renewable energy (including biofuels, but excluding hydro) rose by 9.7 per cent.

Australia is still reliant on coal

Coal remains the biggest source of CO2 emissions in Australia, with oil second. Only the United States has a higher carbon pollution than Australia for energy use, with both tallying about 15 tonnes per person of carbon-dioxide a year.



But the energy mix is shifting


Wind and solar farms have been popping up across the country in the last few years, as Australia’s clean energy transition is tipped to accelerate to the point that most homes will have solar panels paired with batteries by 2030.



The world is trying to slow its emissions


The latest report
by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found if the world makes immediate drastic cuts to emissions, and reaches net zero or carbon neutrality before 2050, we can still stabilise the climate and see it slowly start to cool by the end of the century.



And use more renewables


China was by far the largest contributor to renewables growth in 2020, followed by the ‎US, Japan, the UK, India and Germany.

Saudi Arabia is one of the worst, with only 0.1 per cent of its primary energy coming from renewables. The country has announced plans to become a hydrogen pioneer and set targets to reach net zero by 2060.



And collectively hit a net zero target by 2050


More than 130 countries have set or are considering setting targets of reducing emissions to net zero by 2050. Two countries have already achieved the net-zero targets: the heavily forested Bhutan, located between India and China, and Suriname in South America.

Sweden was the first country to enshrine its net-zero target into law in 2017 and since then, five countries have followed.



But that goal won’t mean much until a more ambitious 2030 target is achieved

At the Glasgow summit, states have been asked to come forward with ambitious 2030 emissions target reductions. To keep them accountable, countries submit Nationally Determined Contributions, known as NDCs, to the United Nations every five years.

Glasgow summit ‘A matter of survival’: What’s COP26?


These contributions are plans which highlight a country’s climate action, including targets, policies and measures that a government aims to implement as their contribution to the global effort.

Commitments differ greatly across nations, making it difficult to compare progress. For example, Argentina’s most recent NDC says it will not exceed 359 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030, while Canada says it will keep its emissions 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.



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(AU Crikey) Exposed: Morrison’s Plan To Lift Emissions Under The Cover Of Net Zero

Crikey

The government's 2050 net zero 'debate' isn't about a lack of climate ambition. It's cover for a plan to increase coal exports that will continue to drive global warming.

(Image: Private Media)

The outline of the government’s climate policy is now clear, even if some detail remains to be filled in.

It will involve an overall increase in Australia’s total greenhouse emissions as it looks to take advantage of continuing use of fossil fuels — and coal in particular.

Documents leaked to Greenpeace from the International Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) process to determine options to reduce emissions show the Morrison government’s strategy for preparing for more concerted international action on emissions abatement.

During the drafting stage of the report, officials from Angus Taylor’s Department of Industry have:
  • opposed a recommendation to phase out coal-fired power stations
  • pushed for the IPCC to support carbon capture and storage (CCS)
  • supported Saudi Arabia’s efforts to block reference to phasing out fossil fuel power
  • demanded Australia be removed from the list of the world’s biggest users and producers of coal
  • tried to remove IPCC references to fossil fuel companies blocking climate action.
Along with the decision to spend at least $3 billion on a coal haulage rail line to Gladstone, and Environment Minister Sussan Ley’s now-routine approval of coal mine expansions, the strategy of Scott Morrison and Barnaby Joyce now seems clear.

The government will elevate carbon capture and storage as a high priority carbon abatement method — despite its complete failure as a viable technology — in order to justify an increase in Australia’s coal exports, which will be subsidised by taxpayers via the loss-making inland rail line and its extension to Gladstone.

The emissions from coal exported to other countries — Scope 3 emissions — are not counted against Australia’s overall emissions.

This will enable Morrison and Joyce to pursue an overall increase in emissions produced by Australia — including from the use of our coal in other countries — while still claiming to be working toward “net zero”.

The IPCC report is a threat to that strategy if it calls for the phase out of coal-fired power stations, which may lead to the shutdown of coal-fired power stations by Australia’s coal customers, or does not back discredited CCS technology in order to justify the continued burning of coal.

Significantly, Australia’s demand that it not be on the list of major coal producers also points to an awareness by Taylor and Morrison of the tension between pretending to support net zero by 2050 and actively pushing higher coal exports.

Being named as a major coal producer will be a reminder to the international community that whatever the government might say, it is determined to push up total greenhouse emissions by continuing to support coal.

The government’s hostility to it being pointed out that fossil fuel companies have dictated climate policy in Australia points to another sensitivity — that it’s become clear internationally how fossil fuel donors to the Liberals and Nationals control and often literally draft energy policy.

The strategy also underlines just what a farce and a pantomime the last fortnight of debate over the Nationals’ position on net zero really is: the Coalition is united on a plan to sell more coal and gas and pump more CO2 into the atmosphere, for the benefit of donors and allies like Santos, Woodside, Origin, Whitehaven Coal, Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart.

The 2050 net zero target isn’t even a too-little-too-late ticket to get into Glasgow. It’s a distraction from the real agenda of more fossil fuels.

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(Washington Post) Australia Is Fighting Fire With Fire, But Running Out Of Time

Washington PostMichael E. Miller

A controlled burn at Ingleside in Sydney's north. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)

SYDNEY — As flames spread up the hill toward million-dollar homes, the firefighters scrambled to keep pace.

“It’s starting to move up the trees!” shouted Jason King as Steve Zieba raced ahead with a hose, slipping on the steep incline before aiming his nozzle at a burning eucalyptus trunk. On the cliffside above them, another crew hauled a water line up sheer rocks and through heavy smoke to replace a hose melted by the blaze.

Even as they battled the flames, the firefighters also fed them, using metal canisters called drip torches to ignite the undergrowth. Two helicopters hovered overhead: one dropping water, the other, incendiary pellets.

For decades, Australian firefighters have tried to peg back bush fires by preempting them. Like soldiers picking the time and terrain for an attack, yellow-clad “firies” routinely burn swaths of forest and scrubland from September to November, before the summer brings soaring temperatures, arid winds and lightning strikes.

These hazard reduction burns — also known as controlled or prescribed burns — are aimed at reducing the likelihood of a serious wildfire, or at least slowing one so firefighters have a fighting chance.

But in this chess game with Mother Nature, humans have put themselves at a disadvantage.

Grass burns during a hazard reduction burn in Sydney's southwest, Oct. 6. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)

Rural Fire Service members use kerosene drip torches to ignite grassland. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)

Climate change has made Australia’s major fires fiercer and more frequent, scientists say. While the conservative government this week bowed to pressure and agreed to go carbon-neutral by 2050, experts warn catastrophes like the Black Summer fires two years ago that killed 34 people and destroyed nearly 2,500 homes could become regular occurrences.

Hazard reduction is one of the few tools firefighters have to respond. Yet, climate change is altering that, too, as expanding fire seasons narrow the window for controlled burns.

“Those opportunities are few and far between,” said Ben Shepherd from the New South Wales Rural Fire Service (RFS), one of the agencies conducting the prescribed burn in Sydney’s north earlier this month. “The question now with climate change is how long the fire season will last.”

As another season looms, some former chiefs fear climate change is making hazard reduction burns obsolete.

“We now have bush fires that are like lava flows,” said Neil Bibby, the former head of Victoria’s Country Fire Authority. “There is going to be a lot of pain, and that pain includes not being able to do what you used to do back in the 1990s. Try doing it in the 2020s or 2030s and you’ve got no hope.”

‘Fighting a losing battle’

A Rural Fire Service member calls for help to manage an area of the controlled burn at Varroville Reserve, southwestern Sydney, in early October. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)

On the morning of the burn, the firefighters spread out around the scribbly gum trees and sandstone heath of Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park. The 100 or so people were mostly unpaid volunteers: cops and supermarket clerks, groundskeepers and financial traders, plumbers and town planners.

Some had fought the last wildfire to tear through this area 27 years earlier. Others, like Zieba, had joined since the Black Summer blazes, when the RFS was flooded with more than 8,000 applications. Around half of them had completed training, bringing the force to more than 76,000 people, the largest volunteer firefighting organization in the world.

“I got tired of sitting in the office all the time,” said Zieba, a 40-year-old IT consultant concerned about climate change.

During the Black Summer fires, Prime Minister Scott Morrison tried to deflect criticism by quipping, “I don’t hold a hose, mate.” Two years later, he is again under pressure over his management of an even bigger crisis.

Australia isn’t just on the front lines of climate change. As one of the highest per capita carbon emitters, it is also at the center of the debate over what needs to be done. Yet, until this week, ahead of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, it had not committed to a 2050 net zero emissions target.

The vast majority of Australians want to see more action on climate change, polls show. And so do many of the men and women actually holding the hose, even if they are reluctant to say so.

“We live in the driest [inhabited] continent on earth, and we’re just making it drier,” said Jeff Hodder, a retired IT worker, as he kept the fire away from power lines. Asked if climate change was the cause, Hodder said he couldn’t answer while in uniform, then went ahead and said yes.

The Rural Fire Service is mostly made up of volunteers. From September to November each year, they conduct controlled burning operations designed to curb summer wildfires. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)

An RFS member climbs a hill during a controlled burn in a steep area on Sydney's northern outskirts. Properties that abut the bushland could be at risk from fires during extreme summer weather conditions. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)

James Daly said he just tried to “put the wet stuff on the red stuff” and leave the climate change discussion to others, though he said global warming couldn’t be ignored.

“I try to balance out being a capitalist pig with helping people,” joked the 44-year-old financial worker.

The RFS and other Australian firefighting agencies now say climate change is increasing the frequency and ferocity of bush fires. But it has mostly fallen to retired fire chiefs to sound the alarm.

In 2019, months before the Black Summer fires, Bibby and two dozen other former chiefs wrote to the prime minister twice to ask for a meeting only to be rebuffed. By December, when Morrison’s office reached out, there were major fires in almost every state.

“I don’t think you can deny it in Australia,” said Greg Mullins, the former chief of Fire and Rescue NSW. “The fires are different now. Extreme weather is in people’s faces.”

The RFS and other Australian firefighting agencies say climate change is increasing the frequency and ferocity of bushfires. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)

An RFS member uses water to douse the flames to prevent the fire from jumping containment lines. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)



Mullins recalls the time as a teenager when he was caught in a blaze and had to huddle in a wheel rut as the flames moved over him. The air was so hot he passed out. He woke up — with blisters on his neck and holes burned in his overalls — when another firefighter kicked him, fearing Mullins was dead.

He retired in 2017 but still volunteers with the RFS.

“Things are burning that never burned before,” he said, citing recent fires in the rainforests of Tasmania and Queensland. “We are fighting a losing battle.”

Hazard reduction burns are still essential, he said, but are becoming “less and less effective.”

Bibby goes further, arguing climate change has turned controlled burns into mere training exercises — something Shepherd from the RFS strenuously denied. But the former chiefs agree that if the world doesn’t act to limit warming, Australia’s fires may soon be unstoppable.

“I can see medium-sized towns being obliterated,” Bibby said. “It’s already happening.”

Managing risk

 The flames at incendiary point seven were spreading nicely when the firefighters saw a shape moving in the smoke. Suddenly, a mountain biker clad in Lycra came out of the bush.

“Is there anyone else in there?” Jarryd Barton shouted at the biker, who replied no.

“Bloody hell,” the firefighter said, laughing and shaking his head.

The biker wasn’t the only thing to emerge as the blaze got going. Within minutes, thousands of insects began to crawl away from the flames. A millipede wriggled across the road as spiders the size of silver dollars crept up trees, firefighters’ tools and, on several occasions, a reporter.

As kookaburras braved the smoke to enjoy the sudden feast, skinks crawled through the ashes and bushy-tailed marsupials scampered out of the scrub and onto manicured lawns. At one point, Hodder guided a toad to safety.

Burned bushland after a hazard reduction operation in Sydney's north. Climate change has lengthened the fire season, leaving a narrower window for firefighters to conduct controlled burns before the Australian summer begins. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)

A blue-tongue lizard was killed by the grass fire at Varroville Reserve, southwestern Sydney, on Oct. 6. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)

Weeks of preparation go into each hazard reduction burn, including environmental assessments, Shepherd said. For the Oct. 9 burn, the RFS and NSW National Parks & Wildlife Service had prepared a 20-page plan, including control lines and escape routes. Locals had given their consent. Burns are canceled when strong winds threaten to spread embers.

But hazard reduction burns can go wrong, as one did last year, scorching North Head on Sydney Harbor.

As the firefighters worked, Scott Small watched from the edge of his yard. The 57-year-old businessman had spent more than a week during the Black Summer fires keeping flames away from another property. He had a four-wheeler with a water tank on the back, in case things took a bad turn. But Small didn’t believe climate change was affecting the fires.

“It’s the bush,” he said. “At times, it’s just going to burn.”

On the other side of the burn, atop the cliffs where Zieba was toiling, David Martin felt the same way.

As he and his partner drank mojitos on their deck and watched smoke drift over the water, the 66-year-old semi-retired insurance executive said the issue wasn’t climate change but the amount of kindling, which he trusted the hazard reduction burn to address.

Martin knew the chance of a wildfire was higher here, next to the national park.

“I accepted the risk, considering what I have to look at when I get up in the morning,” he said, gesturing at the view.

The operation was over by dusk. Most of the 135 acres had burned, leaving bare, silent choirs of charred branches where birds had sung hours earlier.

The birds would return.

One way or another, so would the fire.

A view toward Pittwater, an expensive area in Sydney's north, taken from a drone. (Matthew Abbott for The Washington Post)

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