03/12/2021

(AU MJA Insight) Climate Change, Human Health, And Health Care Systems

Medical Journal of Australia InsightJeffrey Braithwaite | Yvonne Zurynski | Carolynn Smith | Lesley Hughes

Professor Jeffrey Braithwaite, Founding Director of the Australian Institute of Health Innovation (AIHI), Macquarie University.

Authors
  • Professor Jeffrey Braithwaite is the Founding Director of the Australian Institute of Health Innovation (AIHI), Macquarie University, and leads the NHMRC Partnership Centre for Health System Sustainability (PCHSS).
  • Associate Professor Yvonne Zurynski is Associate Professor for Health System Sustainability at AIHI and the co-lead for the Observatory on Health System Sustainability within the PCHSS.
  • Dr Carolynn Smith is a Research Fellow with the PCHSS and the NSW Roots and Shoots Coordinator for the Jane Goodall Institute Australia.
  • Professor Lesley Hughes is a Distinguished Professor of Biology and Pro Vice-Chancellor (Research Integrity and Development) at Macquarie University. She is a former lead Author on the IPCC’s 4th and 5th Assessments and a former federal Climate Commissioner. She is a founding Councillor with the Climate Council of Australia.
THE climate crisis is also inextricably a health crisis. To prepare health care systems for the future, climate change must be seen as a priority issue.

The voices and knowledge of health professionals and health consumers need to be incorporated into every country’s response.

A broader view is crucial to understand not only the social determinants of health but also the cultural determinants of health, wherein the contribution of local knowledge is incorporated into the response to climate change.

Climate change affects human health, which drives health care use

As the Earth warms, we are experiencing more frequent and severe heatwaves, fires, floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events. The likelihood of new infectious and vector-borne diseases is also increasing.

These risks pose both immediate and long term negative effects on physical and mental health, increasing the pressure on health care services.

When bushfires ravaged New South Wales, for example, demand for emergency department care in respiratory illness in the Riverina area increased by 86% in the second week of January 2020; the longer term impacts of these bushfires on human health will not be known for some time.

Moreover, the impacts of climate change on health are unevenly distributed in our society. Indigenous communities, people living with chronic health conditions, the frail aged, people with socio-economic disadvantage, and people from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds are all more vulnerable to the consequences of climate change.

Signatories to the Paris Agreement in 2016, including Australia, acknowledged their citizens’ rights to health in the context of climate change.

However, before the COP26 Conference in Glasgow, it was clear that most had failed to recognise the health co-benefits of addressing climate change and the importance of measuring how climate change policies affect human health.

Health care systems also contribute to climate change

On average, health care accounts for up to 5% of the world’s carbon footprint, with hospitals and pharmaceutical companies being the major contributors. Every step of the health care process, from powering buildings to the essential activities involved in providing care to patients, generates substantial amounts of greenhouse gases.

On the current trajectory, it is estimated that health care’s carbon footprint could triple by 2050. Furthermore, the pandemic exacerbated the impact of plastic and single-use medical items, such as personal protective equipment, on the environment.

Wasteful practices in health care also contribute. Up to 30% of health care activities provide marginal or no health gain. This includes activities such as low value surgery, duplication of tests, and inappropriate medication prescribing (eg, antibiotics for viral infections). Reducing these practices could save over 8000 kilotons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent emissions per year in Australia alone.

Building resilient health care systems

As populations age and the prevalence of chronic ill-health increases, the financial and environmental costs of providing care risks becoming insurmountable. Addressing these problems necessitates a whole-of-system approach, with sustainable change made at every level from governmental and local policies to stakeholder behaviour.

Some funding bodies, such as the European Commission on Health Research and Innovation and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), have initiated mechanisms to address health care systems’ resilience and preparedness to respond to climate change.

But so far, not enough priority has been given to health services evaluation and implementation funding, without which these programs may not result in sustainable change to the system.

An integrated system, including digital monitoring of acute and primary care health service usage, could deliver better results. A learning health care system such as this would synthesise information from every patient encounter and from medical research, improving the continuity of care and enabling better planning to reduce wasteful practices.

Reining in the health care systems’ carbon footprint

At COP26, health was a priority for the first time. The new COP26 Health Programme initiative called on countries to commit to creating a low carbon health care system, assessing baseline levels of greenhouse gas emissions, including supply chains, and for high and middle-income countries to achieve zero net emissions by 2050 or before. Fifty countries have now committed to transforming their health care systems.

Several countries, such as the UK, have already made progress on this commitment. Part of the UK’s National Health Service pledge to decarbonise their health system emphasises improving patient care while lowering environmental and social costs. Adopting more stringent environmental policies is likely to have economic benefits as well.

Every Australian state and territory health department has produced a review on improving the resilience and sustainability of their health care systems. These discuss reducing the environmental effects of health care from energy use to reducing water usage, food waste, and the impact of medical devices.

However, programs and policies are also needed to help reduce wasteful care. This includes education for health providers and health consumers as well as funding mechanisms to promote high value care (that is, care that improves patient outcomes).

A learning health care system with digital monitoring as its centrepiece could improve adherence to health care guidelines, reduce unnecessary pathology testing (including duplication or testing inappropriately) and facilitate knowledge sharing, optimising efficiency.

Conclusion

The pledges at the COP26 Conference to limit CO2 and methane emissions provide some hope that global temperature increase can be kept below 2⁰C, but only if these pledges are met and sustained for decades to come.

Health care systems must adapt to the climate crisis happening right now and prepare for future consequences of climate change.

On 2 December, the NHMRC Partnership Centre for Health System Sustainability will host a webinar with key experts, examining the challenges facing health systems caused by climate change. Visit our website for more information and to register.


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(AU Legal) The Climate Crisis Is An Extraordinary Emergency, XR Activist Jane Morton Argues In Court

Sydney Criminal Lawyers - Paul Gregoire

Extinction Rebellion Victoria launch action in Melbourne Spring 2019

The 2018 Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene paper first put forth the Hothouse Earth scenario, which outlines that global warming is likely leading to a “planetary threshold that could lock in a continuing rapid pathway toward much hotter conditions”.

This acceleration in global temperatures would be devastating for human societies, as well as the entire planet’s environment and ecosystems. The Anthropocene epoch is the current era, which commenced at the end of World War Two and is marked by significant human impact on climate.

“Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilise it in a habitable interglacial-like state,” wrote ANU Professor Will Steffen, along with the fifteen other scientists who authored the paper.

And the Hothouse Earth scenario was the basis for argument Extinction Rebellion activist Jane Morton raised in her recent Melbourne Magistrates’ Court case, in which she invoked the extraordinary emergency defence in relation to breaking the law during a climate protest.

Mounting a defence

Section 322R of the Crimes Act 1958 (Vic) contains the extraordinary emergency defence, which can be argued by a defendant in claiming the reason they partook in illegal conduct was that an impending catastrophe warranted such behaviour. And if successful, it renders them not guilty.

In order to mount an extraordinary emergency defence, it must be shown the person who committed the act reasonably believed that the emergency exists, that the conduct was “the only reasonable way to deal with” it, and that the act was a reasonable response to the emergency.

The extraordinary emergency defence is available in the criminal law of all Australian jurisdictions, besides NSW and SA.

Climate activist Greg Rolles and three other XR rebels argued it in two different Queensland cases in relation to climate action over recent years, but so far to no avail.

Southern Cross University Law Discipline’s Associate Professor Nicole Rogers has pointed out that the 2008 UK Kingsnorth Six case saw a group of Greenpeace activists acquitted over damaging a coal station, as they argued the common law necessity defence in relation to climate.

The professor explains that the extraordinary emergency defence is a statutory version of the necessity defence. But when arguing the original common law version of the defence, there’s no need to prove an impending emergency exists.

Calling out the crisis

Ultimately, Magistrate Hugh Radford ruled against Morton’s extraordinary emergency argument. However, the XR activist is not discouraged, as she considers her unsuccessful may aid other climate activists in successfully mounting a similar defence and eventually setting a precedent.

A clinical psychologist, Morton penned the 2016 report Don’t Mention the Emergency, in which she argued that the reluctance many in the climate movement were having in regard to presenting the full extent of the crisis humanity is currently facing was serving to prevent climate action.

Sydney Criminal Lawyers spoke to Extinction Rebellion activist Jane Morton about why the emergency defence didn’t hold up in her case, the act of civil disobedience that led to her being arrested and charged, and the need to circulate the extreme nature of the crisis more widely.

Extinction Rebellion activist Jane Morton arrested and led away by police

Paul Gregoire: Back in the spring of 2019, you took part in a three hour-long Extinction Rebellion protest in the city of Melbourne. And you and another 42 activists were arrested over the blocking of Melbourne’s St Kilda Road. Jane, what did the action entail?

Jane Morton: About a year before that Extinction Rebellion began in Australia, having come across from the UK. And this was our first effort to blockade a major road and announce it in advance.

It was leading into our Spring Rebellion. It was a launch event. The police knew exactly where we were going to be and when we were going to do it.

The gamble on our part was whether we had the hundreds needed to get onto the road without the police trying to stop us, which we did.

We blocked the road with banners in several directions on Melbourne’s Princes Bridge: a major thoroughfare near Flinders’ Street Station. And we blocked several of the roads coming in with banners while people were getting into position.

We had quite a crowd of people on the road, who were planning not to get arrested behind a large banner. The people who were willing to get arrested were sitting in front of it.

The police started arresting us one by one. But every time someone was arrested another person came from behind the banner and sat down to also get arrested.

After a few hours, the police were beginning to fear it would never end.

Paul Gregoire: On 9 August this year, you went before the Magistrates’ Court of Victoria to argue that the extraordinary emergency defence justified the action you took during the demonstration. You were facing two charges: obstructing traffic and causing a traffic hazard. So, what was the crux of your argument?

Jane Morton: It hinged around this being the launch of Extinction Rebellion. It involved the science to it being an extraordinary emergency, which was the objective test. And then there was the subjective test, which was me knowing it was an emergency.

The hard bit was me arguing the conduct was the only reasonable way to deal with the emergency and that it was reasonable in response.

I argued that we’d tried everything else and that there was a reasonable chance that civil disobedience would work, as well as it being reasonable because this was the launch of a civil disobedience campaign.

Of course, it revolved around whether there was an extraordinary emergency. The main thing I was relying on there was the 2018 Hothouse Earth paper by Professor Will Steffen and various others.

That showed that scientists couldn’t rule out that we would pass beyond the point of no return for catastrophic warming, even before we reach 2°C of warming. The problem is that they don’t know where the point of no return is.

I put forward the case that I have been concerned about the emergency, and I have tried all these different things since 2007.

I then argued that the 2018 paper made it clear that the point of no return could be at any moment, because they don’t know where it is.

Paul Gregoire: After representing yourself through five hours of proceedings, Magistrate Radford found that the extraordinary defence didn’t hold up. What was behind his reasoning?

Jane Morton: The magistrate didn’t accept that it was an emergency. He argued that because I’d known about it since 2007 it wasn’t a sudden realisation of mine.

He also argued – and this was the very strange thing – that because the scientists don’t know quite where the point of no return is, and, in fact, it could have already passed, he used that to show that it wasn’t an emergency.

The magistrate found that as the scientists don’t know where the point of no return for the catastrophe is, it wasn’t an emergency and thus I failed the objective test.

I tried over the course of five hours to talk about the analogy of the Titanic.

The problem with the Titanic is not whether it strikes the iceberg in five minutes, five hours or five days, but it’s the relationship between the amount of time that there is to turn the Titanic around and the amount of time before it strikes the iceberg.

That’s the thing, even if the point of no return is a year or two or even ten years away, if getting to zero – or in fact negative emissions – in that period is difficult or verging on impossible, then it’s the relationship between those two things that’s important, not when the point of no return is.

Paul Gregoire: Other XR activists have been arguing the extraordinary emergency defence in relation to climate protests in Queensland. So far, they’ve been unsuccessful. Do you see this as part of a continuing effort on the part of local climate activists to argue and build upon getting the extraordinary emergency defence over the line?

Jane Morton: Magistrate Radford did rely on the Greg Rolles case in Queensland, where the magistrate there apparently said that he wished he could send the defendant to gaol. It was very harsh. And the appeal also failed.

In the past people have relied on the argument that climate change is happening, it’s real and it’s serious. But, to my mind, to show that it’s serious doesn’t show that it’s an extraordinary emergency.

So, this was the first time putting the argument that this was an extraordinary emergency because we’re facing this point of no return – the collapse of the whole of human civilisation – if we get runaway warming.

I argued in my legal submission that there was a reverse onus of proof based on a successful appeal in Western Australia – the Illich case – in which an appeal was successful based on several precedents that had established a reversed burden of proof in:

“The learned Magistrate erred in law in placing upon the Applicant the burden of proving that he was acting in circumstances of sudden or extraordinary emergency.”

In Illich, the court found that “the onus was clearly upon the prosecution to exclude the operation of section 25 of the Criminal Code”. And the prosecution did not challenge this.

However, the magistrate ruled that the reverse onus of proof involved in the case only applied to the subjective section of the defence, so this puts an emphasis on the need to really carry that objective proof in the first place in future cases.

I had Professor Will Steffen as an expert witness, who’s one of the authors for the Hothouse paper. And he wrote a very strong affidavit for me. But on the actual day, he wasn’t able to attend and therefore I wasn’t able to enter anything into evidence from him.

So, it really makes clear that you have to go hard on the objective evidence of the state of emergency.

The case was a good foundation. I didn’t win on it. But others may be able to.

Paul Gregoire: You were arrested on the day and ended up with a fine.

Jane Morton: If I had just let it go through and paid the fine, it was a summary charge and a fine of $330. At the end of this long process, I got a $500 fine and no conviction.

Paul Gregoire: Many of the other arrestees simply paid up. Why did you find it necessary to challenge your charges? I wasn’t concerned about the fine or a conviction. I fought because I strongly believe that it’s an extraordinary emergency and I was trying to set a precedent.

With Extinction Rebellion, we’re trying to disrupt and cause material pain. But we do need the magistrates to be sympathetic with us. If they start giving us high sentences, it makes it hard, and it may have a chilling effect.

One of the ways I was looking at it was as an opportunity to sway one influential person.

Climate Crisis

Paul Gregoire: On the same day you were in court arguing the extraordinary emergency defence, the IPCC released its latest report, which has been labelled “a code red for humanity”. In your understanding, how desperate is the climate emergency we’re facing? And is the mainstream public climate debate reflecting this?

Jane Morton: No. As I was telling the magistrate, this is something that I have been worrying about since 2007, which was when scientists started to say that it was an emergency.

A book by David Spratt and Philip Sutton came out called, Climate Code Red. It was written in 2007 and came out the following year.

So, it’s clear to me that scientists have known this for a long time, but the message is not getting out.

As a psychologist, and as someone with an interest in persuasion and messaging, I ended up writing a booklet in 2016 called Don’t Mention the Emergency.

The problem we had was not only with the politicians and the media, but nongovernment organisations and environment groups were saying that we mustn’t mention it’s an emergency, because it will make people afraid, and fear doesn’t work.

That’s not true. We see fear used in political campaigns all the time, and in advertising. In fact, the most powerful message is one that combines a personally relevant threat with a potentially efficacious action.

That is the most powerful message. But this view – that you mustn’t make people afraid ­has spread throughout the climate movement and around the world.

You can talk about jobs and 100 percent renewables, but don’t say it’s an emergency.

So, I don’t think the message has got out at all, and the situation is exceedingly dire, especially as we head towards a blue water event in the Arctic, which will speed things up in the north.

We’ve got ocean currents slowing. And a recent paper outlines that there could be a rapid shift from a fast state of the ocean current to a slow state. And we have no idea how to reverse these things.

So, these are potentially catastrophic events that are actually very close. And still people have no idea.

Even at the COP recently, Guterres was saying it’s code red for humanity, yet there were some scientists still talking about zero by 2050 like it can save us, when it is in a whole different realm compared to the speed of change required.

Paul Gregoire: And lastly, Jane, Australia has become the globe’s chief climate pariah. The prime minister wasn’t going to attend COP26, his net zero by 2050 document released prior to the event included no details and he’s since released a much-derided plan on his return. How would you sum up the Morrison government’s performance at the COP? And more broadly, its attempts at dealing with the extraordinary climate emergency?

Jane Morton: Most people agree it is nothing short of disgraceful. In fact, some people have described it as criminal negligence. I’m almost lost for words in terms of how bad and misleading their position is.

Again, this shows the importance of movements like Extinction Rebellion. On the day the IPCC report came out, one of our activists burned a pram outside of Parliament House and others painted “duty of care” on the building and on some other walls nearby.

That got in the news. But nobody apart from us is saying people will die. That activist was Violet Coco. She passionately wants to have kids but is just too scared to do so for fear of what they will face.

We are some of the few who are telling the real emotional and science-based story.

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(WIRED) Think Climate Change Is Messy? Wait Until Geoengineering

WIRED

Someone's bound to hack the atmosphere to cool the planet. So we urgently need more research on the consequences, says climate scientist Kate Ricke.

Photograph: Citizen of the Planet/Getty Images

Here’s the thing about the stratosphere, the region between six and 31 miles up in the sky: If you really wanted to, you could turn it pink. Or green. Or what have you. If you sprayed some colorant up there, stratospheric winds would blow the material until it wrapped around the globe. After a year or two, it would fade, and the sky would go back to being blue. Neat little prank.

This is the idea behind a solar geoengineering technique known as stratospheric aerosol injection, only instead of a pigment, engineers would spray a sulfate that bounces some of the sun’s radiation back into space, an attempt at cooling the planet. It’s the same principle behind a supervolcano loading the stratosphere with aerosols and blocking out the sun. And it, too, would rely on those winds distributing the material evenly.

“If you do it in one place, it's going to affect the whole planet,” says climate scientist Kate Ricke, who studies the intersection of geoengineering, human behavior, and economics at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “Not just because you've cooled down and changed the global energy balance, but because the particles spread out.”

While it’s not likely that someone will colorize the atmosphere anytime soon, it's getting increasingly likely that someone will decide it’s time for stratospheric aerosol injection. Emissions are not declining at anywhere near the rate needed to keep global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and the climate crisis is worsening

But the science isn’t ready. This anthropogenic geoengineering might trigger unintended effects, like droughts in certain regions and massive storms in others. Plus, if engineers abruptly stopped spraying aerosols in the atmosphere, temperatures would swing back to where they started, potentially imperiling crops and species

Still, stratospheric aerosol injection would be fairly cheap. And there’s nothing stopping countries from unilaterally deciding to spray their airspace, even though those materials would ultimately spread around the globe. “I just have a hard time seeing with the economics of it how it doesn't happen,” says Ricke. “To me, that means that it's really urgent to do more research.” 

WIRED sat down with Ricke to talk about the allure and potential pitfalls of geoengineering, what makes it so politically perilous, and how scientists can make sense of it—for the good of humanity and the planet. The conversation has been condensed and edited for clarity.

WIRED: Can you give me an idea of the scale that we'd be talking about with solar geoengineering—both spatial scales and timescales?

Kate Ricke: Let's say you want to start geoengineering today to stabilize global temperatures where we are, or maybe bring it down a little bit. You basically need a fleet of airplanes that can reach the stratosphere. We're talking on the scale of maybe tens to hundreds of airplanes, and the capability to spray aerosol precursors. 

But the way that the stratosphere works is that once you get up there, stratospheric winds take things around the planet relatively quickly in bands of latitude. And then slowly over time, on the timescale of months, things sort of migrate in general from equatorial regions up toward the poles, and then particles fall out near the poles.

So you wouldn't need to be flying through the whole stratosphere spraying stuff. The stratosphere does a lot of work to spread it out. And that's part of the reason why you can't do stratospheric geoengineering over just one area. 

WIRED: Would we notice this? Visually, would we see anything? 

Kate Ricke: Yes, on an absolute scale. It changes the ratio of direct and diffuse radiation. So the idea is the sky would on average become a little bit whiter, and, for example, sunsets would become a bit more vivid. It's definitely much smaller than the difference between going from the desert in California to the city. The white skies thing is also not, in my opinion, probably the biggest problem.

WIRED: What about any concerns about toxicology? Is this stuff benign to living creatures on Earth? 

Kate Ricke: It's not benign—it's the same stuff that comes out of power plants. Large concentrations of it in one area makes people and crops sick. But, in terms of the scale, the amount you need in the stratosphere is way, way smaller than what we emit from power plants, and it's spread out over the planet. 

People have done some studies on this, too, and it seems like probably the biggest risk from the particles would be to sort of sensitive high-latitude ecosystems—so polar ecosystems that don't get very much exposure to urban pollution right now, but would get more from this. Especially because the particles move towards the poles, generally, before they precipitate out of the stratosphere. 

WIRED: Say a country unilaterally says, ‘We're going to do this.’ They want to cool down their own country by spraying the stratosphere, and it doesn't matter if it's going to wrap around the planet.

Kate Ricke: Legally, it's complicated, because countries own their airspace up to space, basically. It's a little ambiguous. So people could spray stuff over their country, and it would go everywhere. And then [the particles] stay in the atmosphere for on average about a year and a half. They spread out and the radiative effects take effect immediately.

That's why after a large volcanic eruption, you see a dip in the global temperature immediately that persists for about a year to two years and then drops off again. So you wouldn't need to be spraying stuff every day, necessarily. If you stopped doing it for two years, the effect would go away.

The WIRED Guide to Climate Change
The world is getting warmer, the weather is getting worse. Here's everything you need to know about what humans can do to stop wrecking the planet. 
I'm having a hard time seeing how we're not going to do it at this point, actually, because it's so inexpensive. Already the impacts of climate change are looking to be so disruptive that I don't see in this world how such a low-expense solution doesn't get implemented by someone.

There's just nothing else in the world that can cool the planet as quickly. Even if we started rapidly decarbonizing and taking CO2 out of the atmosphere, it's still a decade timescale for consequences. Whereas blocking sunlight, the climate response starts right away. 

WIRED: I've seen some modeling that if you were to suddenly stop solar geoengineering, you'd have a problem with temperatures dramatically climbing and imperiling species.

Kate Ricke: If the program got disrupted, and we were blocking a lot of warming with stratospheric geoengineering, you would get this really rapid warming if someone stopped doing it.

I mean, it would be catastrophic if we stopped treating our drinking water too, right? There's things that humans do that we need to keep doing, or it's catastrophic. 

The technology's not so complicated that we would need just the person who developed the technology to be the one to keep doing it. And so I'm a little skeptical about that argument being the biggest issue, because we already basically know how to do it. It's within the grasp of a medium-sized country or something. The resources are substantial enough that it would be hard for a single individual, or a very small country to do it. But it's not like nuclear weapons or something like that. 

WIRED: Are we getting to the point where the science is sound enough that we can begin to make these decisions? And is that even going to be possible, given the general lack of cooperation on an international scale?

Kate Ricke: There might be some technical experts, like me or other people who have worked on this, that would say: ‘Yes, I've seen enough to believe it.’ But in order to have collective decision-making at the global scale, you need science that's viewed as legitimate by everyone. Not everyone, but a lot of people. And we're not there, by a longshot, with geoengineering.

But that's why we need more research. And we need more diversity of who's doing research and where, because the results are going to need to be viewed as legitimate by a much broader group of people. They're not right now. That's definitely not true. 

WIRED: Why not?

Kate Ricke: Because it's been a small group of mostly elite university white dudes in North America and Europe who've done all the research. And people just don't automatically trust a small group of elites like that. It's actually important that the ministry of the environment in Bangladesh has someone who's Bangladeshi talking to them about geoengineering science.

So that, I think, is the biggest problem with the science right now. You can look at certain areas of climate science and you see we're saying the same thing over and over and over again. But there has been some value to that, too—replication and repetition. It builds consensus, and it builds trust in the science.

WIRED: Country-scale commitments to reducing emissions are one thing, but this involves everybody simultaneously because we share one atmosphere. Is there going to be agreement on that?

Kate Ricke: We're not there where we can have global consensus about geoengineering, not by a longshot. But I would guess it's more likely that this will happen not with a global consensus. Certainly, there are some actors that, if they did it, would be constrained by more powerful actors. But there are definitely other major actors in the world that already exist that could do geoengineering and get away with it. Because the alternative is: Is it bad enough for you that you're willing to go to war over it?

WIRED: What about the moral hazard? Wouldn't geoengineering make it less urgent to reduce emissions?

Kate Ricke: The moral hazard is a totally valid concern, and it's a big one. In terms of the existing empirical research, the results are very mixed. It doesn't seem like [for] individual humans, when you put them in behavioral experiments, that a moral hazard around geoengineering exists.

Telling people about geoengineering in a controlled way tends to make people want to mitigate greenhouse gases more, because people think geoengineering is kind of nuts and scary. They see it as an indicator that climate change is a big problem.

This is me editorializing about my fellow climate scientists, but I think most climate scientists don't like the idea of geoengineering. And the reason they still don't like it the most is because of the moral hazard.

They think we’ve got to tell people ‘This is a bad idea’ as long as possible because of that. And they're probably right. But the risk is that if things get bad enough with climate change, people are going to do geoengineering anyway, and we're not going to be ready to do it.

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