09/12/2021

(AU Courier Mail) Qld Sea Level Rise Mapping Reveals Suburbs, Tourist Destinations To Be Wiped Out By 2100 With 0.84m Rise

The Courier Mail - Felicity Ripper

Large chunks of Queensland are expected to vanish underwater as sea levels threaten the state. A “realistic” report shows 55 suburbs and hotspots will disappear. Full list of suburbs and when it’s expected to occur revealed.


New mapping that predicts the impact of climate change has revealed a bleak but “realistic” possibility of rising sea levels inundating dome Queensland’s top tourism infrastructure including Brisbane Airport, Noosa, large parts of the Gold Coast and some of the most popular islands in the Whitsundays.

The Coastal Risk Australia Map paints a dire picture for some of the Sunshine State’s most iconic locations based on findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report.

An artist’s impression of what Hasting Street in Noosa would look like under the modelling for a 0.84m rise in sea levels.
An artist’s impression of what Hasting Street in Noosa would look like under the modelling for a 0.84m rise in sea levels.

The interactive map shows Cairns Central Business District, Hamilton Island Airport and almost all of Maroochydore could be swamped by sea levels in 2100 based on a “high emissions scenario” of a 0.84m rise.Sea World in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.

NOOSA

Main Beach, Hastings Street and the canals of Noosa are all facing a grim future under the modelling.
Main Beach, Hastings Street and the canals of Noosa are all facing a grim future under the modelling.

Hastings Street in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.
Hastings Street in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.

FrontierSI and NGIS Australia developed the map, which states the predicted 0.84m sea level rise was in line with recent global emissions and observations of sea levels. “It is by no means an extreme scenario,” Bond University environmental science expert Daryl McPhee said.

“Like any modelling there is no guarantee the scenario will eventuate, but based on available information it is realistic scenario if no mitigation is undertaken.”


BRISBANE AIRPORT

The areas around Brisbane Airport and the port face inundation.
The areas around Brisbane Airport and the port face inundation.




Brisbane Airport in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.
Brisbane Airport in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.

PORTSIDE WHARF, HAMILTON

Portside Wharf on the Brisbane River in Hamilton.
Portside Wharf on the Brisbane River in Hamilton.

Hamilton in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.
Hamilton in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.

The high-emissions scenario predicts Brisbane landmarks to be impacted include Albion Park Raceway, Woolloongabba Rotary park, the Manly Boathouse, and Milton’s Roy Emerson Tennis Centre.

The modelling portrays rivers and creeks rising as far west as Oxley, where the Ipswich Motorway could go under.


“Prime residential locations such as the Gold Coast and Noosa are particularly prone to inundation, even if it is not the extent predicted in the model,” Dr McPhee said.

“On the Gold Coast the ‘A-line’ which is a buried rock wall that runs unobtrusively beneath many Gold Coast beaches is a critical last line of defence and should not be compromised by any public or private developments.

“Low-lying riverfront properties at places such as the Noosa River and the Nerang River and along Gold Coast suburbs such as Runaway Bay and Paradise Point are likely to see the first significant impacts and will need to prepare early to mitigate against them.”

GOLD COAST

Low-lying riverfront properties on the Gold Coast are in the firing line.
Low-lying riverfront properties on the Gold Coast are in the firing line.



North Gold Coast in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.
North Gold Coast in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.




Sea World in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.
Sea World in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.


Dr McPhee said a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions could reduce the probability of the 0.84m sea level rise from happening.

But an even grimmer picture is painted by the map’s option to select a “very high scenario” modelled off a less likely sea level rise of 5m by 2150.

If climate change sends Queensland in that direction, the world can wave goodbye to Whitehaven Beach, Port Douglas, Wynnum and Manly’s foreshore and the Burleigh Pavilion.

A 5m rise would also flood almost the entirety of Nudgee Beach, Maroochydore, Beachmere, Tweed Heads and Inskip.

Upon releasing the map, CEO of FrontierSI Graeme Kernich said the aim was to place scientific modelling into the hands of the people so they could see for themselves how the areas they live in could be impacted by climate change.

MAROOCHYDORE

Maroochydore in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.
Maroochydore in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.

Research published by the Reserve Bank of Australia in September explored how climate change could affect Australian banks and house prices by 2050.

The analysis by economists Kellie Bellrose, David Norman and Michelle Royters suggested there would be 254 climate-sensitive suburbs across Australia in 2050 which could see a 10 per cent fall in house prices.

CAIRNS

Much of the Cairns waterfront would go under.
Much of the Cairns waterfront would go under.




Cairns Esplanade in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.
Cairns Esplanade in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.


“Within the major capital cities, where the majority of properties are located, the highest risk regions are mostly located on the coastline, particularly in Brisbane,” the paper stated.

“The risks in these regions could further increase if the affected communities find that access to, or affordability of, insurance becomes a challenge.”

MACKAY

Mackay in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.
Mackay in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.


Dr McPhee said the level of concern for property owners would be dependent on how they viewed their property as a long-term investment.

“They are highly unlikely to see any additional impacts of inundation in the five- to 10-year window, although if the investment is a generational investment modelling does determine that there will be some risk that may require mitigating and some risk to property values if inundation is frequent and significant,” he said.

“Insurance companies and banks will no doubt respond over time as climate change alters the risk profile of properties and respond.”

THE WHITSUNDAYS

Hamilton Island in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.
Hamilton Island in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.

Daydream Island in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.
Daydream Island in 2100 as depicted by the Coastal Risk Australia Map.

He said it was possible insurance companies will respond with higher premiums and policy exclusions and banks may become reluctant to lend money over the 30 year horizon for properties at greater risk.

SUBURBS THAT WOULD BE INUNDATED IN A HIGH-EMISSIONS SCENARIO

  • Tweed Heads South
  • Paradise Point
  • Currumbin Waters
  • Biggera Waters
  • Runaway Bay
  • Jacobs Well
  • Norwell
  • Woongoolba
  • Gilberton
  • Point Lookout
  • Hemmant
  • Myrtletown
  • Shorncliffe
  • Beachmere
  • Bellara
  • Bongaree
  • Pelican Waters
  • Meldale
  • Mooloolaba
  • Maroochydore
  • Pacific Paradise
  • Mudjimba
  • Noosaville
  • Inskip
  • Burnett Heads
  • Moore Park Beach
  • Causeway Lake
  • Port Alma
  • Keppel Sands
  • Armstrong Beach
  • Sarina Beach
  • East Mackay
  • Cremorne
  • Midgeton
  • South Townsville
  • Railway Estate
  • Beach Holm
  • Saunders Beach
  • Forrest Beach
  • Taylors Beach
  • Lucinda
  • Tully Heads
  • Hull Heads
  • Midgeree Bar
  • Coconuts
  • Flying Fish Point
  • Russell Heads
  • Cairns City
  • Bungalow
  • Portsmith
  • Cairns North
  • Machans Beach
  • Port Douglas
  • Wonga
  • Thornton Beach
  • Boomfield

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(BBC) The Legal Battle Against Climate Change

BBC Future Planet - Jessica Bateman

Activists are increasingly suing governments and companies to take action against climate change – and winning. Could this be a turning point?

(Image credit: Getty Images)

David Schiepek, a student from the southern German state of Bavaria, has been involved in climate activism for around three years. "After all this time fighting, protesting and talking to politicians, I was losing hope a bit," the 20-year-old says. "I feel like my future is being taken away."

But in May this year, an unexpected event gave him a fresh sense of optimism. A lawsuit brought by a number of environmental NGOs, on behalf of a group of young activists, resulted in Germany's constitutional court ruling that the country's climate protection act must be amended to include more ambitious CO2 emissions reductions.

The decision stated that the government's failure to protect the climate for future generations was unconstitutional.

"I saw that, finally, politicians can be put under pressure and forced to take measures against climate change," Schiepek says. "It really changed the way I see politics."

Now he is hoping to build on this ruling, which applies only to the federal government. He has been recruited by an NGO, along with other young people from around Germany, to bring similar cases against their local state governments. Technically, he is suing his state to take action on climate change.

The last few years have seen a snowballing of court rulings in favour of environmentalists around the world. The cumulative number of climate change-related cases has more than doubled since 2015, according to a report authored by Kaya Axelsson of Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute and colleagues.

Just over 800 cases were filed between 1986 and 2014, while over 1,000 cases have been brought in the last six years, according to researchers Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. Thirty-seven of those cases were "systemic mitigation" cases brought against governments.
The Paris agreement has teeth – not just against governments, but against companies – Paul Benson
One of the most high-profile was a Dutch case in 2015, in which a court ruled that The Netherlands' government has a duty of care when it comes to protecting its citizens from climate change. The judges decided the government's plan to cut emissions by 14-17% compared with 1990 levels by 2020 were unlawful given the threat of climate change. They ordered the target be increased to 25%.

As a result, the Dutch government closed a power plant four years earlier than planned and introduced a new climate plan in 2019. Elsewhere cases have led to similar rulings – including the recent German one that inspired Schiepek, as well as cases in countries such as Australia.

The rising number of cases is paving the way for stricter enforcement of environmental laws around the world and giving activists like Schiepek a new sense of hope.

A number of high-profile rulings have found certain governments' and corporations' climate action has been insufficient (Credit: Getty Images)

Roda Verheyen, one of the most well-known environmental lawyers in Germany, and one of those who represented citizens in Germany's constitutional court case this year, says she believes there are three reasons for the increase in successful cases. "One is that courts take a long time to actually come to conclusions," she says.

An increasing number of cases have been filed since 2014, so some are only now being heard after many years of work.

On top of this, the scientific evidence that climate change is caused by humans has become undeniable, meaning it is much easier for lawyers to prove this in court. And the governing laws that governments are expected to follow have also developed and expanded – Verheyen points out that back when she first started studying law around three decades ago, there was nothing remotely related to climate.

"And then obviously the narrative of what society perceives climate change to be has changed," she explains. "A lot of law is flexible to some degree, because you always have to interpret existing rules. And when they do that, they take into account societal norms and how belief systems might have changed."

She compares this development to marijuana-related offences – as attitudes towards the drug have become more liberal in many countries, sentences have become much lighter.

In the context of climate change, the public now overwhelmingly accepts the scientific consensus that it is man-made, and polls regularly put it towards the top of peoples’ concerns. This has in turn made courts more willing to rule against those responsible for emissions.

Verheyen explains that this year's German ruling is significant because many countries do not have a constitutional court that can make this type of decisions. Secondly, it is unlimited, so applies from now until forever, and she expects it to have a big impact on other cases around Europe.

Roda Verheyen successfully represented citizen's in Germany's constitutional case in 2021 (Credit: Alamy)

As well as cases against governments, cases against corporations have also been gathering pace.

One landmark ruling of 2021 was again in The Netherlands, where oil giant Royal Dutch Shell was ordered to cut its emissions by 45% by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. Shell has said it will appeal the ruling, while stepping up efforts to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

A Royal Dutch Shell spokesperson says the company is "rising to meet the challenge of the Dutch court's ruling" and has committed to reducing its Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 50% by 2030, compared with 2016 levels – these are Shell's direct emissions from owned or controlled sources, and its indirect emissions from the generation of purchased electricity, steam, heating and cooling.

"Our 2022 business plan will reflect this new target, which we are committed to delivering regardless of whether we win or lose our appeal against the ruling," the Shell spokesperson says.

These reductions don't include the emissions from burning Shell's fossil fuel products, which come under the category of Scope 3 emissions. The Dutch ruling stated that the company also needed to reduce its Scope 3 emissions, but the Shell spokesperson says that these findings hold Shell accountable for a wider global issue.

Paul Benson, a lawyer at Brussels-based NGO Client Earth, which specialises in environmental litigation, says this case "sought to apply the same reasoning [from the ruling against the Dutch government] to a corporate body. That was very novel, and I think a lot of commentators and people in our fairly enclosed legal circle weren't entirely sure what way the court would interpret [that]."

"I was thrilled for a court to find that a company's climate policy is in effect inadequate," he continues, calling the judgment "ground-breaking". The case was also the first time that a company was ordered to comply with the Paris climate agreement: "[It] shows the Paris agreement has teeth – not just against governments, but against companies."

This has paved the way for other lawsuits seeking to force corporations to comply with the treaty – Verheyen is currently working on a lawsuit against German carmakers BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen which, if successful, would force them to phase out combustion engines by 2030 in line with the Paris goals.

"As you would expect, actors in this space and lawyers in our community have been studying the [Shell] judgement very carefully, and sought local reasoning to apply [it] in their jurisdiction," adds Benson.

"The complaint has not yet been served on us," says a spokesperson for Daimler, which makes Mercedes-Benz vehicles. "We do not see a basis for a cease-and-desist declaration, because we have long since issued a clear declaration for our 'lane change' to climate neutrality: As a car manufacturer, it is our ambition to become fully electric by the end of the decade wherever market conditions allow."

A BMW spokesperson says: "The BMW Group is firmly committed to the Paris climate agreement and already leads the automotive industry in the fight against climate change."

Meanwhile a Volkswagen spokesperson says that Volkswagen was the first car manufacturer to commit to all targets set by the Paris climate agreement "and is committed to become net carbon neutral at the latest by 2050", aiming to invest €35bn [£30bn/$40bn] in electric mobility before 2025.
I think there's a tendency sometimes for people to think about climate in a fatalist way. But everything we do now to mitigate and adapt is hugely worthwhile – Paul Benson
Benson and one of his colleagues, Sebastian Bechtel, both stress that the cases taking place now only challenge a fraction of environmental destruction that is happening around the world.

Many activists do not have the financial resources to take on big corporations.

"A lot of countries do not want to bring these claims," Bechtel says. "In the UK, those relate primarily to costs. In other countries, it's simply not possible to go to court to enforce specific laws."

Increasingly solid science proving anthropogenic climate change and shifting public sentiment are two reasons for the uptick in climate lawsuits (Credit: Getty Images)

Back in Germany, a newly launched NGO, Green Legal Impact, is seeking to address this issue by offering specialised training to young lawyers and connecting civil society groups to those offering legal representation.

Managing director Henrike Lindemann says that as a young environmental activist she "always saw that young people had political ideas. And then there were lawyers, often old white men, who told us our ideas were not possible because of the law," she says. "And I thought, I want to know for myself if this is true. And if it is, I want to know how to change it."

Lindemann says that one of the aims of the organisation is to encourage activist groups to be strategic in the court cases they pursue, so that any judgments can pave the way for further litigation.

She gives the example of a number of current cases challenging the planned 850km (530 miles) of motorway due to be built in Germany, which she argues has not been looked at through the lens of climate.

"I think if the court [ruled against one part of motorway], the discussion would change," she says. "It would not just be about that one section of motorway, it would be the entire plan. And then we would have to change the whole discussion around mobility."

Carbon Count
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The question of access to justice also brings about the issue of whether those in the Global South, who are disproportionately impacted by climate change, could in future bring cases against corporations or governments in wealthier nations.

Green Legal Impact is already working on helping people in other countries who have been impacted by German companies' actions seek justice, and a recent UK ruling stated that communities can sue parent companies for environmental damage caused by their subsidiaries.

Verheyen says it would be difficult to find courts to support cases against foreign governments, "unless at some point one very severely hit country decides to go state-versus-state, which has been a topic of conversation in academic and political circles for a long time, but hasn't happened."

Environmentalists are feeling optimistic after this year's judgments. But given how slowly courts move, do they feel this may all be too little, too late? "Obviously I don't think it's too late, otherwise I would stop what I'm doing," replies Verheyen. "I think we're actually seeing a lot of movement."

Benson agrees. "I think there's a tendency sometimes for people to think about climate in a fatalist way," he adds. "But everything we do now to mitigate and adapt is hugely worthwhile."

In terms of which potentially ground-breaking cases we might see in future, Verheyen suggests that both the finance sector "and anything to do with land use and forests" are areas where she is expecting more action to arise. "If you look closely at the Shell judgement, it says, no further fossil fuel investment, full stop," she explains. "If I was a financial institution, I would be looking very closely at that one."

But overall, lawyers working in this field are keen to point out that litigation isn't a silver bullet for ending the climate crisis.

"It's just one of the levers that can be pulled to trigger necessary change," says Benson. "The other levers are activism, policy and, of course, science. But [litigation] is an incredibly powerful tool, and I think this year we've seen that."

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(The Guardian) Why Climate-Change Gardening Means Breaking All The Rules

The Guardian -

Manage your soil and your planting with global heating in mind and you’ll not only save time and effort, but have a healthier plot

Illustration: Brett Ryder/the Guardian

Early in 2010, I moved from a home with a small, tidy back garden in Brighton to a wild smallholding more than 200 metres above sea level in Llandysul in Wales. Concerns about the climate crisis were at the heart of my move: I was living at sea level, near an underground river, and worried about flooding. But more than anything, I longed to live somewhere I could be self-sufficient.

After considering the options – Spain (extreme heat) and New Zealand (attractive but too far away) – I decided on Wales. Water shortages were unlikely, I thought, and property and land were affordable. So I left behind my old life to turn my passion for organic homegrown food into a full-time career – writing, running courses, making public speaking.

Gardening in this part of west Wales is very different from gardening in Brighton – the land is more suited to livestock than crops, and it has been a steep learning curve. No casual outdoor growing of tomatoes, aubergines, peppers and chillies in this cooler, wetter climate. No protection from the strong winds, no respite from the relentless rain (and, in 2018, a drought). And no fruit trees so high above sea level in a wind-ravaged spot, or so I was told. As a result, I had to adapt all my gardening techniques.

Today, I try to replicate the natural world where I can. I encourage weeds and local flora, let plants self-seed, and use wild areas for biodiversity (natural pest control) and protection against the elements. My approach is organic and sustainable, but ultimately it has evolved around a free-spirited instinct, and no following of rules.

My experiments have taught me that many traditional gardening practices no longer fit into our changing climate. They create scenarios in which you are fighting, rather than working with, the natural world and the resilience that can be found within it. By letting the natural world take the lead, I have created a garden that is healthier, more productive and lower-maintenance. Here’s how you can start to do the same.

Learn to connect

Photograph: Getty Images

Machinery or tools can create a disconnect. My first spring in Wales I bought a rotavator to prepare my veg patch for planting, and watched in horror as it churned everything in its path, earthworms included. I now do my weeding by hand, avoid digging, and leave plant roots in the ground so as not to disturb the soil and microbial activity within.That said, do what feels right. I plant and dig out potatoes, jerusalem artichokes and ocas by hand because it’s fun and they grow better that way for me.

Try not to use gloves. Stick your fingers in the soil to see if a plant needs water or not. Look, smell and feel your way. Touching soil is good for your own gut microbiome – research by Bristol University and University College London in 2007 (published in Neuroscience) suggested that coming into contact with soil bacteria (Mycobacterium vaccae) can stimulate the release of serotonin, which is a natural antidepressant and makes you feel better overall.

Connect with your local community and neighbours, to barter and share produce, seeds, materials and ideas. Join gardening groups, organic and permaculture associations, even local Facebook groups. Your nearest garden centre can be a mine of useful information.

Break rules

Question perceived wisdom, and try to think independently. For example, out-of-date seed can often still be germinated, it just needs planting more thickly. Leave plants in the ground for as long as you can. Brassicas such as chard, flat-leaf kale and purple spouting broccoli can be successfully grown on for many years, saving you time, effort and money.

I don’t use fertiliser for hungry Mediterranean fruits like tomatoes (which I grow in a polytunnel) because it makes them needy for more, and stops their roots seeking out natural resilience through symbiotic relationships with underground fungi. Instead make your own compost from leaf mould, and boost it with comfrey, nettles, seaweed, chicken poo and borage.

Photograph: Julie Fryer/Alamy

Learn from your mistakes

When my neat, long row of tomato plants succumbed to blight, I realised that having plants so close together was making it easier for this airborne fungus to spread. Now, with mixed planting, and at more than a metre between similar plants, I don’t have blight, pests or disease. I don’t have to use crop rotation now either.

Spend less and get creative

Try to work with what you already have. I have turned old windows into a makeshift cold frame, and created planters out of rubbish – from old pallets and wellies to battered Belfast sinks and a neighbour’s tractor tyres (to house comfrey plants). Repair and maintain your tools.

Save seed and grow on supermarket leftovers: citrus pips can be grown into houseplants – they will be hybrids but still may eventually bear fruit. Lime leaves can be used in cooking in the interim. Organic ginger and turmeric stems can produce a viable harvest: choose a golfball-sized piece with an eye – the nobbly, protruding bit – and place in a plastic zip bag in your warmest spot. Plant out when the eye goes green and starts trying to shoot up. Plum, apricot and avocado stones can be germinated in compost in spring (don’t expect homegrown avocados, but they make attractive houseplants). Dried peas can be soaked in water and turned into salad sprouts or planted in pots for pick-and-come-again pea shoots over winter.

Photograph: Guy Harrop/Alamy

Grow what works best for your space

Stop trying to grow high-maintenance plants that don’t naturally flourish in your location and soil type. Look at easier, more resilient alternatives.

Avoid anything with exacting watering requirements (for example, sprouts or cauliflower); instead, grow pick-and-come-again leaves such as spinach, chard and kale. For ease of growing, I also favour purple sprouting broccoli over the ordinary kind.

I can’t grow tomatoes outside, but I can grow tomatillos, which are very hardy once established. After almost running out of water entirely in the 2018 drought, I rooted the stems of tomatoes in polytunnels to reduce their water requirements (they feed from two places or more, rather than one). Likewise, crystal lemon cucumber flourishes – no matter the weather.

Protect your plants naturally

I was told that I couldn’t grow fruit trees so high up, which immediately made me determined to do so. I found that planting a row of quicker-growing damson trees slowed the strong winds sufficiently for my apple and pear trees to establish and grow after just two years.

Protect your soil all year round with ground cover. In summer, fill any bare patches with plants to help protect against the drying glare of the sun, and to minimise watering. Quick-growing lettuce, herbs and edible flowers like nasturtium, as well as pumpkin and squash, with their large leaves, can be trailed around plants to shelter the ground.

Over winter, soil fertility can leach away with lots of rain, so help bind it together with green manures, perennial plants and spent crops left to rot naturally. Mulches and covers also protect against erosion.

Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Rex

Favour natural pest control

Seed heads, piles of leaf litter, dead branches or stinging nettles all provide a winter haven for beneficial predators such as frogs, toads, newts, ground beetles, hedgehogs, solitary bees, ladybirds and lacewings – as well as providing food for birds. Embrace free planting (polyculture) as our medieval ancestors did – mixing crops together makes it harder for pests to proliferate, and you will have more natural biodiversity. Try companion planting: for example, place strong-smelling plants such as onions or marigolds around carrots to disguise the smell of the foliage and deter carrot fly.

Go wild

Look to the past and heritage varieties (try Garden Organic’s Heritage Seed Library) for a wide variety of plants saved from extinction. They may offer greater resilience against our changing climate than the smaller pool of modern varieties commonly available. Wild fruit trees, such as plum and crab apple, can grow in the most extreme circumstances, and tend to adapt more readily to local conditions. The Woodland Trust offers a nice range.

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