31/12/2021

(BBC) Climate Change: Storm Clouds Gather After COP26

BBC News - Matt McGrath

Is the progress that was made at the COP26 Glasgow climate summit already in jeopardy because of challenges in the year ahead?

Image source, Getty Images

2021 was a momentous year for climate change.

As well as a host of extreme, destructive events influenced by rising temperatures, the past 12 months have seen unprecedented political engagement on the issue, culminating in the COP26 summit in Glasgow in November.

Progress was undoubtedly made and the overall thrust of the meeting was towards more rapid action on a whole host of measures to curb emissions.

But there are now growing concerns that this momentum may dissipate over the coming months.

The most grievous blow comes from the US.

Next move - China

The potential failure of President Biden to get his Build Back Better act through Congress would significantly impact the ability of the US to meet the tough climate targets that the White House has committed to.

It would also hugely affect the relatively unified approach to climate change on display among world leaders at COP26.

"Everything that Biden pledged, led to this relatively good atmosphere and a sense of momentum in Glasgow," said Dr Joanna Depledge, a fellow at the Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance.

"But these were just promises, he needs to get the bill through Congress. And it's now looking increasingly dicey. He can do some things with executive orders, but that certainly isn't the kind of sustained institutional climate legislation change that we're really looking for."

"I think the situation to us, is critical."

The despair among many in the US over the possible failure of President Biden's bill will also have knock-on effects throughout the world. This will certainly be the case in China, a country smarting from the perception that it flexed its political muscle in Glasgow to get its way.

Biden's political difficulties with the bill are seen as more evidence that the "West is declining".

COP26 President Alok Sharma feeling the emotional burden as the talks went deep into overtime. Image source, Getty Images
"I am worried 2022 will see a fuller display of geopolitical tension dominating the climate agenda," said Li Shuo, from Greenpeace East Asia.

He is also concerned that the mooted introduction of carbon taxes on imported goods into Europe could elevate a sense of unfairness and frustration in Beijing.

"The Chinese side will see how they are treated vis-a-vis others and make its judgment on whether the game is fair, and most importantly, if it is about the environment at all, or just geopolitics and trade," he told BBC News.

"Overall, I am looking at a more turbulent year ahead. The years before the Paris agreement were an example of geopolitics helping the climate agenda forward. What lies ahead may be the opposite."

This pessimistic outlook is echoed by the fact that next year's COP is being held in Egypt, and the one after that in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

"Neither of these countries could be described as climate leaders," said Prof J Timmons Roberts from Brown University in Rhode Island, US.

"The good side is that COP27 will be in a developing country, and some issues like loss and damage [who pays for the impact of climate change in the worst affected countries, and how it is paid] may get more traction, but on the issue of emissions reductions, it's not clear that they're going to be leaders."

Another key concern heading into 2022 is that some countries may simply ignore aspects of the Glasgow climate pact that they don't like.

One key measure in the deal was the request for all countries to "revisit and strengthen" their national climate pledges by the time delegates gather in Egypt late in 2022.

Despite agreeing to this, a number of countries now say they simply won't update their plans, among them Australia and New Zealand. New Zealand's climate minister James Shaw told national media that this provision really only applied to large emitters like India, China, Russia and Brazil which hadn't significantly strengthened their plans in time for Glasgow.

A deal to help South Africa away from coal could become the model for others. Image source, WIKUS DE WET

However, there are also some positive developments in the offing that could make a significant difference to the general mood around climate change.

During COP26, the UK, EU, US, Germany and France agreed to pay $8.5bn to help South Africa abandon coal. Now, those close to the negotiations say that two new deals to help India and Indonesia move away from the most carbon-intensive energy source are in the pipeline.

These will be expensive, running into the tens of billions, but if they happen, they would represent a massive step away from fossil fuels. These types of arrangements, and the commitment to doubling adaptation finance made by richer countries will be key to progress in 2022, say officials.

Another positive is that the UK's presidency continues right up to next November when Egypt takes over.

COP26 President Alok Sharma has made it clear that he intends to push forward over the coming months in efforts to ensure that the agreements secured in Glasgow on deforestation, coal, finance and cars will start to be implemented.

Mr Sharma's background as an auditor will come in handy in making sure there's no slippage over the integrity of the commitments made.

"The UK, as hosts of COP26, spent the last two years working tirelessly with countries to build trust, which ultimately allowed us to deliver the Glasgow climate pact," he told BBC News.

"We will continue in the same vein through 2022 to make sure countries keep their promises, re-visit their emissions reductions targets, get finance flowing, and deliver on the many commitments made during the two weeks of the summit."

Another positive is the fact that Germany will chair the G7 group of countries. The co-leader of the German Green party is now the country's foreign minister, so climate will remain high on the international diplomatic agenda.

Infrastructure investment in the wake of the Covid pandemic, especially in middle income countries, also offers a great chance to lock in significant action to limit emissions.

Small steps spell doom

The final agreement on the rules for carbon markets, agreed in Glasgow, has coincided with a record rise in the price of carbon permits in Europe and the UK.

While this has downsides, a sustained high carbon price could significantly speed up a transition to cleaner sources of energy.

But, as ever, global events could see all these potential positives quickly pale.

Disputes between Russia and Ukraine, China's disengagement and a drubbing for the Democrats in mid-term elections in the US could all derail or at least delay any further progress on climate change.

And stalling or taking small steps right now would be a disaster for efforts to keep the rise in global temperatures under 1.5C this century.

"Right now, incremental steps are a death sentence," said Prof Roberts.

Floods in Malaysia at the end of 2021 had a severe impact on people and property. Image source, SOPA Images
However, the climate negotiations process is highly unpredictable - and even when things appear to be at their darkest, countries are often able to make sufficient compromises to keep things moving forward.

Certainly the COP26 president says he's determined to push ahead and that the UK can be a role model for others.

"Leaving COP26 with the Glasgow climate pact was a historic moment demonstrating the world's shared commitment to taking real climate action," said Alok Sharma.

"As we look ahead, the most pressing issue is the timescale on when this action takes place and the reality is that the world needs to act at a much faster pace."

"I believe we will reach a net zero world, and the UK is leading the way through our own actions such as rapidly expanding our renewables sector and working to eliminate the use of coal from our electricity generation in 2024, the question is whether that will be fast enough to avoid the worst effects of climate change."

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(AU RenewEconomy) Conservatives Want Australia’s Cricket Captain To Shut Up About Climate

RenewEconomy -


After what must have been an exhausting couple of weeks spent disparaging climate action through the COP26 meetings in Glasgow, Australia’s conservative media warriors have had to regroup to face off the worst possible kind of threat: a climate activist cricket captain.

Pat Cummins was last week named as the 47th captain of the Australian men’s Test Cricket team. But it was in the days preceding his appointment, when news emerged that the NSW-born fast bowler was being interviewed for the job, that the Murdoch papers sounded the alarm.

“If Cummins is made Australian Test captain, strap in for the game to become active on issues including climate change,” wrote Peter Lalor in The Australian last Wednesday.

“The bowler made his politics clear in a revealing interview with The Weekend Australian magazine last month and has showed his hand with his leadership role in the Cool Down initiative, a climate change initiative that involves 300 fellow athletes.”

The Cool Down initiative also involves former Wallaby captain David Pocock, AFLW player and sports commentator Daisy Pearce, Olympic swimmers Cate and Bronte Campbell, world champion surfer Mick Fanning, and cricket veteran Ian Chappell, among many others.

The movement hopes to use the platforms of these well respected and well recognised sportspeople to back scientific calls for Australia to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least half by 2030 and reach net zero emissions before 2050.

According to Lalor, the “university-educated” Cummins, also wants solar power installed at cricket clubs and is conscious of the carbon emissions associated with playing and the impact climate change is having on cricket.

“The game has a big footprint – we fly all over the world in jets, we’ve got big ­stadiums, play under massive lights, the fields use so much valuable water. There’s a lot we can do,” he told the Weekend Australian. “Sport will be affected, but cricket in ­particular, we are subject to the elements.”

Now that Cummins has got the job, the media eye-rolling about his climate concerns, and debate over whether he should be allowed to have an opinion on anything beyond the pitch, has well and truly begun.

“He is entitled to his views,” opined 3AW Drive host Tom Elliott – who is also university educated, with a Bachelor of Commerce. “But if I was Pat Cummins, I’d be focused on winning The Ashes.

“Sportspeople think that because they’re good at sport, we should listen to them on other issues. And yet the reality is that most of the time we should not.

“And, let’s be honest, if you are an international cricketer getting paid hundreds of thousands – if not millions – to play in India and all sorts of different countries, your carbon footprint is far higher than the average person.

“Cricketers fly around in first class and business class and generate a lot more pollution than the average person because their job, playing professional cricket, requires them to be in all corners of the globe.

“I don’t see how, on one hand, you can earn money flying all around the world at the drop of a hat you can lecture other people about climate change.”

Elliott has form on climate and energy. In 2017, he wished for a “giant, statewide blackout” to halt the rollout of renewables. It seems to be a common wish for conservatives. Energy minister Angus taylor’s wife once hoped for the same thing, saying one was needed to “teach lefties a lesson.”

The Daily Telegraph also weighed in on the subject of Cummins climate views, publishing the opinion of Tim Blair under the headline “Woke or bloke,” which suggests you cannot be both and most certainly not if you’re also a high profile sports person.

So who is qualified to speak on climate?

As former Australian PM Kevin Rudd put it in an open letter to Blair back in 2019, we should probably take our advice on the subject from the “world-class scientists [who] have been studying climate and the environment as their life’s work.”

From the few words he has said on the subject, and the action he has taken in joining The Cool Down initiative, Pat Cummins appears to be taking his advice from climate scientists. And we think that is a great sign of a good leader.

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(Live Science) 8 ominous climate milestones reached in 2021

Live Science - 

Signs of accelerating global warming abounded this year.



A deer wanders through heavy smoke in front of a row of burned cars during the Dixie fire in Greenville, California on Aug. 6. The enormous wildfire has been burning since mid-July and is the largest in the state's history. (Image credit: Photo by Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)

 Wildfires. Heat waves. Life-threatening floods. The disastrous consequences of burning fossil fuels and pumping greenhouse gases into Earth's atmosphere are everywhere around us. Study after study directly links human-caused climate change to more powerful and wetter storms, longer and more intense droughts and rising sea levels that threaten coastal communities worldwide.  And 2021 made the accelerating pace of climate change painfully clear. 

While we still have time to mitigate the worst climate change impacts, that can happen only if we drastically and quickly reduce greenhouse gas emissions — and soon. Here are eight signs in 2021 that the window to avoid climate catastrophe is closing (though it's still not too late to change course). 

Paris Agreement warming targets surpassed



(Image credit: Shutterstock)

When world leaders signed the climate action pledge known as the Paris Agreement in 2015, they committed to long-term and short-term plans for reducing consumption of fossil fuels and the production of greenhouse gasses linked to climate change. Their goal: restricting global warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius).

But global average temperatures have already climbed to about 1.8 F (1 C) warmer than they were during pre-industrial times, and the 2015 goal is already out of reach. And the warmer Earth gets, the more warming accelerates; as the planet loses ice and snow, it reflects less heat back into space and absorbs it instead, scientists reported in January in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Record-breaking heat in 2020



A world map plotted with color blocks depicting percentiles of global average land and ocean temperatures for the full year 2020. Color blocks show increasing warmth, from dark blue (record-coldest area) to dark red (record-warmest area). (Image credit: NOAA NCEI)

At the start of 2021, NASA climate scientists announced that 2020 ranked alongside 2016 as the hottest year of all time. Researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York stated in January that 2020's global average surface temperatures were warmer than the 20th-century average by 1.84 F (1.02 C).

However, in a separate assessment, researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that 2020 was the second-hottest year after 2016, with temperatures that were 1.76 F (0.98 C) higher than average — just 0.04 F (0.02 C) cooler than 2016's average temperatures. Though the conclusions of the two agencies presented slight variations, both concurred that the current warming trend on Earth is unprecedented, with average global temperatures on the rise for more than 50 years.

Faster sea level rise



An abandoned boat sits in the water amid dead cypress trees in coastal waters and marsh August 26, 2019 in Venice, Louisiana, in a region already impacted by sea level rise. (Image credit: Drew Angerer/Getty Images)



We've likely been underestimating how quickly sea level rise could happen, a February study showed. Prior models estimated that by the year 2100, global sea-level average would likely rise by 3.61 feet (1.10 meters), but scientists now suggest that oceans will rise even more rapidly than that, based on sea level rise events in Earth's distant past.

By evaluating historical data and looking at how quickly seas rose and fell as ancient Earth warmed and cooled, researchers could then estimate a rate for future sea-level rise that was unexplored in previous computations. The scientists found that existing sea-level models predicted more conservative maximums than the new models did, according to the study published in the journal Ocean Science.

Gulf Stream slowdown



The Gulf Stream current (red) speeds warm water up the eastern coast of the United States, where it clashes with cold water in the North Atlantic. (Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory)

Earth's climate is regulated by ocean currents and one of the most important of these is the Gulf Stream, which acts like a giant conveyer belt transporting heat around the ocean. However, due to human-induced climate change, the Gulf Stream has slowed dramatically and could stop completely by 2100, if global warming continues at its current pace, new research found.

The Gulf Stream regulates climate and weather by circulating warm, salty water around the planet. But as Earth warms, melting freshwater ice pours into the ocean, lowering the salinity of the water and disrupting the current's flow. Should the Gulf Stream falter and fail, it could trigger more extreme weather, such as cyclones and heatwaves, and may accelerate sea level rise in coastal Europe and North America.

Human influence 'unequivocal'



A deer wanders through heavy smoke in front of a row of burned cars during the Dixie fire in Greenville, California on Aug. 6. The enormous wildfire has been burning since mid-July and is the largest in the state's history. (Image credit: Photo by Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)

The evidence that humans are driving climate change is crystal clear, according to a report authored by over 200 climate experts who reviewed more than 14,000 studies. In August, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN body focusing on climate science, released the first installment of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, which stated that human-driven changes are affecting all of Earth's planetary systems in ways that are "widespread and rapid."

Hundreds of researchers co-authored the report, finding that the burning of fossil fuels has pumped so much CO2 into the atmosphere that global warming is advancing at a rate that is unprecedented in the past 2,000 years.

Carbon factory rainforests



Wildfires in the Amazon are polluting the air with greenhouse gases faster than the surviving trees can absorb it. (Image credit: Getty)

Tropical rainforests are often called the "lungs of the planet" because they produce oxygen and absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). But that pattern has been reversed; the Amazon rainforest is now emitting more CO2 than it absorbs, releasing more than 1.1 billion tons (1 billion metric tons) of CO2 per year, while absorbing only about half a billion tons, according to a July study published in the journal Nature.

"Large-scale human disturbances" were responsible for the shift, with wildfires producing much of the excess CO2 — and most of the wildfires were deliberately set in order to clear land for industry and agriculture, the researchers reported.

'Last Ice Area' melting away



This photo of sea ice on the Wandel Sea north of Greenland was taken Aug. 16, 2020, from the German icebreaker Polarstern, which passed through the area as part of the year-long MOSAiC Expedition. This area used to remain fully covered in ice throughout the year. Satellite images show that Aug. 14, 2020, was a record low sea ice concentration for this region, at 50%. (Image credit: Felix Linhardt/Kiel University)


To the north of Greenland lies a frozen zone that previous research suggested would remain mostly frozen even as Earth's climate warmed. But even this so-called Last Ice Area may not survive the current rate of global warming. In 2020, ice cover in the Wandel Sea in the eastern part of the Last Ice Area reached its lowest since record-keeping began, with about 50% of the sea ice melting away during the summer months.

When scientists recently analyzed the ice loss, they discovered that year-round melt caused by rising global temperatures was reducing the overall thickness of the region's permanent ice over time. This means that prior models predicting the Last Ice Area's longevity have likely been underestimating the rate of ice loss — and the area could become ice-free as soon as 2040.  

Earthshine gets darker



An image taken from the International Space Station in 2011 shows Earthshine on the moon. (Image credit: NASA)

Scientists recently investigated a previously unexamined consequence of climate change: a decrease in Earth's brightness. Our planet reflects sunlight onto the surface of the moon's dark side, in a phenomenon known as "earthshine." Using satellite views, researchers measured earthshine and tracked variations in brightness based on the reflectiveness of clouds in the atmosphere, and of water, land and snow and ice cover on Earth's surface. They then compared datasets of earthshine observations with other datasets that recorded changes in Earth's cloud cover. 

The researchers saw that over the past two decades, Earth's light has dimmed by approximately 0.5% — it now reflects about half a watt less light per square meter. The scientists also found that the dimming corresponded with a decline in bright low-altitude clouds over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Clouds are a complicated piece of the climate puzzle, but this drop is likely linked to other atmospheric changes caused by climate change, the scientists reported in August in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. 

Still not too late



(Image credit: Frank Lee via Getty Images)


While we can't turn back the clock and reset Earth's climate to conditions that predate the Industrial Age, that doesn't mean there's nothing we can do about climate change. Under the current warming trend, by the year 2050 Earth will  become more than 3.6 F (2 C) hotter on average. However, if we reduce fossil fuel use and limit the rise of global temperature averages to no more than 2.7 F (1.5 C) above pre-Industrial levels, we can still slow or stop some of the global changes that are already underway, such as sea level rise and extreme weather events, according to the IPCC report.

If current warming continues, sea level rise could reach 7 feet (2 meters) by 2100. But reducing greenhouse gases and allowing Earth to cool down could slow that process by thousands of years, climate experts wrote in the report. Scientists are also working to develop new computer models to create  updated predictions about timescales for ice melt and sea level rise, and to explore how human communities — especially the most vulnerable ones — might adapt to these changes.

But in order to get there, humanity needs to take action, and that begins with dramatically curbing our use of fossil fuels on a global scale, and enacting legislation to rebuild infrastructures around sustainable energy sources, Michael Mann, a climatologist at The Pennsylvania State University previously told Live Science. 

"The priority should be on cutting emissions. Getting rid of fossil fuel subsidies is one piece of that. But so are incentives for renewables and carbon pricing," Mann told Live Science in October. "I wouldn't want to put the onus on any of these mechanisms," he added. "We need them all." 

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