20/01/2022

(WIRED) How To Prepare For Climate Change's Most Immediate Impacts

WIRED

The effects of the climate crisis are happening right now. From natural disasters to supply chain shortages, here's how to cope.

plowing snow
Climate change is making natural disasters more frequent, more severe, and more expensive. Photograph: KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/Getty Images


If you weren’t
already convinced by the epic snowstorm, fatal heat dome, horrific flooding, apocalyptic fires, and terrifying IPCC report of 2021, let’s make one thing clear: Climate change is here, now, today.

Even if we all became carbon zero overnight—an impossibility—the climate would still keep changing.

And while it’s important to keep fighting, lobbying, and making lifestyle changes to reduce the impacts of climate change, it’s also important to admit that our planet has irrevocably changed and each of us needs to learn how to adapt.

The biggest challenge of learning to live in a new climate is that there’s so much uncertainty about what’s going to happen, to whom, and when. “Climate change will cause mass migrations and economic disruptions,” says John Ramey, the founder of The Prepared, a website focused on prepping.

“What will happen when millions of homes are lost, people move, food and water is scarce, and whole economic sectors fail?”

Nobody knows the answer to that question, much less whether it’s guaranteed that will all happen, but here’s a hint: Even a fraction of that is gonna be bad, and you’re gonna be glad that you read and took the advice in this article.

And if you’ve been eyeing cans of Spam at the grocery store, take heart that you’re not alone. According to a FEMA study, there’s been a recent growth in prepping—from 3.8 percent of American households in 2017 to 5.2 percent in 2019.

Ramey predicts that after the double whammy of a pandemic and nonstop climate disasters, that number could now be as high as 10 percent.

“The climate crisis is one of the single largest reasons behind the huge growth in the modern prepping community,” Ramey says, “especially among people under the age of 35 or so, since they're broadly well educated, believe the science, and have the fear or impression that the world will burn within their lifetime.”

When we hear the word prepping, most of us think immediately of a man with a long beard who lives in a hut in the woods, collects guns and “tactical” gear, and eats beans everyday for lunch. Or a Silicon Valley billionaire with a concrete fortress built to withstand nuclear war (with a bowling alley, because, you know, the apocalypse gets boring real fast).

“The media likes to highlight extreme characters and stories, such as a nutter wrapping his entire suburban house in foil or moving into the woods to teach combat shooting to their toddlers,” says Ramey. “Those people are no more representative of preppers than the Kardashians are of Californians.”

At its core, prepping simply means taking actions to prepare yourself for a worst-case scenario. Chances are, you already do some form of prepping, whether that’s buying life insurance or installing a smoke alarm in your home.

While there may not be an exact blueprint for what climate change is going to do to each of our lives, experts have some solid guesses that, combined with some good old common sense, can help each of us prepare for our new normal.

“I can’t tell you when you’re going to get hit by a climate disaster,” says David Pogue, tech journalist and author of How to Prepare for Climate Change. “But I can tell you that sooner or later, it’ll come.”

Climate-Induced Natural Disasters

The evidence is clear: Climate change is making natural disasters more frequent, more severe, and more expensive.

“We’re getting freak heat waves and freak snowstorms, devastating droughts and historic downpours, flooding and water shortages,” explains Pogue. “Everything is changing simultaneously: oceans, atmosphere, plants, animals, permafrost, weather, seasons, insects, people.”

Because your risk of natural disaster is completely dependent on where you live, what’s most important is that you understand what disasters you, personally, may face (and don’t just rely on what disasters you’ve faced in the past—that’s not an accurate assessment anymore).

You can do this by researching your city or county’s emergency preparedness tips and making sure you understand the basics of surviving an earthquake, tornado, hurricane, flood, or wildfire.

Pogue says that, no matter where you live, you should make sure your homeowner or renter insurance covers the disasters you’re at risk for. He also points out that you don’t need to live on a coast to be at risk for flooding, and homeowners insurance doesn’t cover flooding.

After your insurance is squared away, he suggests prepping for two weeks of having no water, food, or power, packing a “go bag” to sustain you for a couple of days outside of your home, and making a plan with your family about where to meet if cell towers aren’t working.

His last piece of advice is the simplest: download the Red Cross Emergency app. It’s free and will give you early warning about disasters. “The most tragic way to die in a fire, flood, or hurricane is in your home because you never got the word to evacuate.”

Supply Chain Breakdown and Food Shortages

Whether or not you agree with experts who say that climate change could bring about a Roman Empire–esque societal collapse, it’s clear that shortages and supply chain disruptions are on the increasingly warm horizon.

As Covid-19 showed us, those disruptions can impact anything from medical supplies to car parts to finding a winter coat.

But the most concerning shortages that we face are access to food and water.

A 2019 UN report warns of a looming food crisis, and drought already threatens 40 percent of the world’s population, according to the WHO, and over 80 million people in the United States, according to the US government’s Drought Information system.

A new paper published in Advances in Nutrition suggests that climate change will cause rising food prices, greater food insecurity, and may lead to micronutrient deficiencies in more people.

While there may be little you can do to impact the global food chain, you can start in your own backyard by planting a fruit tree or starting a garden, learning how to grow climate-appropriate vegetables, and making sure your pantry is fully stocked with two weeks of water and food, along with any necessary medical supplies.

It’s also important to assume you won’t have warning before a food and water shortage, according to Ramey, so don’t put off stocking up until it’s too late. 

Becoming Resilient Together

Resilience may be an overused term when we talk about climate change, but for most of us, it’s grossly lacking in how prepared we are to care for ourselves, our loved ones, and our property if emergency workers aren’t able to assist us.

Barely half of Americans can perform CPR, only 17 percent know how to build a fire, and just 14 percent feel confident in their ability to identify edible plants and berries.

Basic skills—like learning how to operate a two-way radio, knowing the smartest escape route out of your city or neighborhood, or being able to change a bike tire—may sound simple, but can be the difference between life and death in a disaster.

Perhaps the most effective way to take care of yourself is to get close to others.

According to FEMA, 46 percent of people expect to rely a great deal on people in their neighborhood for assistance within the first 72 hours after a disaster.

“Prepping is not a lone wolf activity,” says Ramey.

It’s important that your immediate neighbors know your name and who is in your family—including pets—so they can inform first responders in the case of an earthquake or a fire.

In the event of supply chain disruptions, your neighbors may be your only access to vital supplies like batteries or extra diapers.

Building connections in your local community is also a great way to build an informal service network, because who knows when you may need help with an injury or a home repair.

As Ramey puts it: “Community wins in 99 percent of situations.”

Links

(USA The Hill) Nearly Half Of GDP In Cities At Risk Of Disruption From Nature Loss

The Hill - Zack Budryk

© Getty Images

Loss of biodiversity and nature could put up to $31 trillion of cities’ gross domestic product (GDP) at risk, according to research released Monday by the World Economic Forum.

More than 70 percent of the 576 biggest urban centers worldwide, comprising more than 1.4 billion people, are at elevated or extreme risk from environmental hazards like pollution, water contamination or extreme heat, according to the report.

About $31 trillion of their GDP, or 44 percent, is at risk from these losses. Although this is below the global average of 50 percent, it would trickle down to other regions due to the numerous sectors that are headquartered in cities, such as utilities, transportation and shipping.

More specifically, the report identified flooding as the foremost natural risk for more than 1,600 cities worldwide. Loss of coastal habitat is a major contributor to this risk, according to the report.

Like numerous risks from climate change and biodiversity loss, the poorest residents bear the greatest risk, with the World Bank estimating that the 600 million people most at risk are below the poverty line.

Air pollution and lack of green space in cities is also a major environmental risk and financial drain, according to the report. In southern and eastern Asia and the Pacific, exposure to air pollution cost the equivalent of 7.5 percent in regional GDP.

Urban centers represent more than 75 percent of carbon emissions worldwide, and the capital allocated for urban climate finance is far below the estimated amount necessary, according to the report.

The 2021 State of Cities Climate Finance Report found $384 billion in climate finance went to urban areas in 207-2018, compared to an estimate of $5 trillion needed.

However, the report estimates that sustainable development in these areas could create enough jobs and capital to offset these risks. Sustainable transportation infrastructure alone could create 21.6 million jobs by 2030, according to the report, with another 11.66 million created by more sustainable handling of waste.

“In the conventional paradigm, urban development and environmental health are like oil and water,” Akanksha Khatri, the World Economic Forum's Head of Nature and Biodiversity, said in a statement.

“This report shows that this does not have to be the case. Nature can be the backbone of urban development. By recognizing cities as living systems, we can support conditions for the health of people, planet and economy in urban areas.”

Links - The Hill Climate Change Articles

(The Conversation) Climate Change Is Creating Security Threats Around The World – And Militaries Are Responding

The Conversation - | Richard Nugee

Arctic strategy: a Russian military drill in Shukozero in Arctic Russia. Lev Fedoseyev/TASS/Alamy Live News

Authors
The British military is currently “too slow and resistant to change”, according to Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UK’s chief of defence staff.

The urgent always takes priority over the important.

But in the context of one of the world’s biggest security issues – climate change – threats and adaptations are evolving at pace.

In summer 2021, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change raised the threat level posed by climate change to a “code red for humanity”.

Anthropogenic climate change is at once evident and escalating, transforming natural, economic and socio-political environments.

As well as mitigating threats, governments and their militaries are manoeuvring to exploit opportunities and leverage advantage.

A range of climate scenarios have been forecast – but common to all is increased frequency and scale of extreme weather events, more droughts and floods, melting of ice caps and permafrost, rise in sea levels, and oceanic acidification and deoxygenation.

Both human and national security will almost certainly be affected by threats to agricultural regimes including increased pest and disease presence, spikes in food prices and shocks to food production and food logistics.

Consequences will include the recalibration of diplomatic alliances, displacement and dispossession of peoples, border disputes, endemic famine and warfare.

The tempo of the threat from the climate has accelerated.

Certain parts of the world are becoming “climate conflict hotspots”.

The effects of climate change shape, proliferate and amplify the threat, interacting in complex ways with pre-existing vulnerabilities such as socioeconomic inequality, fragile governance and inter-group tensions.

The UN reports that temperature increases in the Sahel region of Africa will be 1.5 times higher than the global average.

This is an existential problem for many countries in the region, such as Mali, where destructive weather already jeopardises agricultural production.

With an population growth rate of nearly 3%, Mali is also one of the youngest and fastest-growing populations in the world.

Vicious cycle: famine and violence in the Sahel have become a self-perpetuating reality over recent years. Jake Lyell/Alamy Stock Photo

Tensions between ethnic groups, for example the Fulani and Dogon, have been aggravated by decades of cattle-herding and horticulture relocation as well as migration into urban centres.

Violent clashes over grassland, water sources and local infrastructure have become common.

Scorched earth is only fertile as a recruitment ground for violent and extremist organisations. Terrorist groups such as Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa (ISWA), Jamaat Nusratul Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Katiba Macina pose a threat in the Sahel, often with the intent and capabilities to mount complex attacks against government and civilian targets.

Arctic militarisation

In the Arctic, melting sea ice is amplifying strategic competition as the accessibility of resources improves, particularly mineral and fossil fuel deposits.

New trade routes are emerging, the Northern Sea Route (NSR), for example, is projected to rival Suez Canal traffic and shift trade flows between Asia and Europe. Russia has declared the NSR “a national transportation corridor” as a means to ensure exclusive access to it.

Others, such as China and the US, however, have indicated that they regard it as an “international domain”. In reference to the “Polar Silk Road”, China has started to refer to itself as a “near Arctic state”, something that, in absolute terms, is geographically false.

Assorted Arctic and non-Arctic countries are building ice-breakers to capitalise on these new economic realities.

In turn, the high north is facing an unprecedented process of militarisation.

Russia is investing heavily in defence infrastructure and performing its power through the presence of nuclear submarines, MiG-31 Foxhound aircraft flights over the north pole and into US and Scandinavian airspace, and exercises of their Arctic Motorised Brigade.

In concert, this posturing informs Russia’s various competitors that it is present and, if required, will use force to defend its strategic interests.

A USAF B1-B Lancer, part of a deployment of bombers to Norway to operate in the strategically important Arctic region. Abaca Press/Alamy Stock Photo

Nato has been similarly present in the contest.

US president Joe Biden, for example, has relaunched Arctic Warrior, a cold war training programme – and, in early 2021, dispatched B-1 Lancer strategic bombers to Norway.

This brought Russian military targets in the Arctic and beyond within reach. In response and to signal a posture of competition, Russia sent a missile cruiser from its Northern Fleet to the area.

Carbon bootprints

Climate change also amplifies national security risks.

There are physical risks. Many coastal naval bases are, for example, at risk from sea level rises.

There are liability risks. Countries, particularly those in the global south, are going to seek damages from others for loss and damage resulting in economic, physical and cultural harms.

On a global scale, the greenhouse gas emissions of militaries contribute immensely to the climate crisis.

And, as the UK secretary of state for defence, Ben Wallace made clear at COP26, the need to reduce military emissions must be part of the route to sustainability.

His comments were in line with the ambitions presented in the Ministry of Defence’s Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach.

Action has followed words. In the UK, the army has invested in prototype electric hybrid armoured, reconnaissance and logistic vehicles, with significantly reduced emissions and improved performance.

The electric trucks that transport a field hospital can now supply power for up to 12 hours, providing the equivalent of nine diesel generators. New buildings on the military’s training estate are also net negative, supplied from renewable sources such as anaerobic digesters and solar farms.

The Royal Air Force recently achieved a world first flight powered by 100% synthetic fuel, authorised the use of 50% sustainable aviation fuel in all its aircraft, and plans to order electric-powered planes for training. The Royal Navy, meanwhile, is incorporating alternative-fuelled sustainability into new ship design.

In addressing their carbon bootprint, militaries enhance their role in sustainable security.

Moreover, as agents of “climate diplomacy”, they can influence positive change in other nations and government departments.

This is becoming a vital role in a warming and increasingly insecure world.

Links