Q&A: How does climate change affect insurance costs and infrastructure resilience in high-risk regions like northern NSW or Queensland? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
Climate extremes are inflating insurance premiums Thousands are dropping coverage due to affordability Critical infrastructure is increasingly exposed Government interventions remain reactive, not strategic Queensland, Northern Rivers face compounding risks

Climate change is pricing Australians out of protection.

In cyclone-prone Queensland and flood-hit parts of northern NSW, insurance premiums have soared by more than 300% in the past decade.

Some households now pay over $10,000 a year for basic home insurance, while others have been refused cover altogether.

As the climate crisis fuels more destructive storms, floods, and fires, traditional models of risk assessment are breaking down.

Insurers are pulling out of the worst-affected areas, leaving entire communities without financial safety nets when disaster strikes.

“Uninsurable” Zones Are Growing

A 2022 report by the Actuaries Institute warned that 1 in 25 Australian properties, over 520,000 homes, will be effectively uninsurable by 2030 due to extreme weather risk¹.

The hardest-hit areas are low-lying, flood-prone regions in northern NSW (like Lismore) and coastal Queensland (including Cairns, Townsville, and the Whitsundays).

These same places were devastated by floods in 2022, causing $5.65 billion in insured losses, the costliest flood disaster in Australian history².

With risks rising faster than mitigation, insurers are either charging exorbitant premiums or withdrawing entirely.

Infrastructure at Breaking Point

Beyond households, climate extremes are also exposing the fragility of critical infrastructure.

Bridges, roads, power grids, and water systems were never designed for the new normal of back-to-back cyclones, record-breaking floods, and simultaneous bushfires.

In 2022, floodwaters isolated entire towns in northern NSW for days, cutting off essential services and delaying emergency response³.

The Insurance Council of Australia has warned that infrastructure failure can amplify loss, as happened when Lismore’s levees failed, catching residents off guard.

Government Response Falling Short

In response to the growing crisis, the federal government established the Cyclone Reinsurance Pool in 2022, aimed at reducing premiums for high-risk regions.

But critics say the scheme only addresses part of the problem, mainly cyclones, not floods or fire, and does little to incentivise resilience upgrades⁴.

Meanwhile, the $200 million Disaster Ready Fund is spread thin across the entire country, leaving local councils scrambling to adapt infrastructure with limited resources.

There is growing pressure for a national adaptation strategy that hardens both homes and public assets against foreseeable climate threats.

Abandonment by Degrees

In the absence of affordable insurance or resilient infrastructure, some communities are being forced to consider managed retreat.

The 2022 Northern Rivers Reconstruction Corporation has flagged the relocation of hundreds of homes from the most vulnerable floodplains, though residents remain divided.

Without urgent action, climate change could make entire regions economically and physically unsustainable.

Australia faces a stark choice: invest in resilience now, or pay ever-higher costs in catastrophe recovery and lost livelihoods.

Footnotes

• 1. Actuaries Institute (2022). Home Insurance Affordability and Socioeconomic Equity in a Changing Climate.
• 2. Insurance Council of Australia (2023). 2022 Extreme Weather Catastrophes Report.
• 3. ABC News (2022). Lismore Floods: Infrastructure failures worsen catastrophe.
• 4. The Guardian (2023). Critics say cyclone reinsurance pool fails to address climate risk broadly.

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Q&A: How are Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities being disproportionately affected by climate extremes? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points Remote First Nations communities face intensifying climate extremes Heatwaves and droughts are stressing housing, health, and water access Sea level rise threatens Torres Strait Islands with inundation Cultural practices are disrupted by ecosystem change and fire regimes Calls grow for climate justice and Indigenous-led adaptation

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are on the frontlines of climate change, enduring intensifying extremes with fewer resources and deeper historical wounds.

Across northern Australia and the Torres Strait, Indigenous communities are experiencing the compounding effects of global heating at alarming rates.

Inland towns like Wilcannia and remote desert settlements face frequent heatwaves exceeding 45°C, while clean drinking water supplies dry up and local infrastructure strains under pressure.¹

For Torres Strait Islander communities, sea-level rise is not a future threat, it’s a present emergency.

Low-lying islands such as Boigu and Saibai are seeing homes, graves, and sacred sites inundated with saltwater, causing erosion and salinisation that threatens habitability.²

The Heat Inequality

Many Aboriginal households in central and northern Australia are poorly insulated, overcrowded, and reliant on aging power infrastructure.

These conditions intensify health risks during prolonged heatwaves, especially for elders and people with chronic illness.

In some regions, power outages due to overburdened grids leave families without cooling during deadly summer spikes.³

Without urgent upgrades to housing, energy security, and community health, these compounding stresses are likely to worsen.

Water Crisis and Climate Stress

Aboriginal communities in arid zones depend on bore water, creeks, and rainfall tanks, resources being stressed by hotter, drier conditions.

In Western NSW, residents of Walgett have endured drinking water sourced from highly saline bores during droughts, raising serious health concerns.⁴

In the Kimberley, flash floods damage roads and isolate settlements for weeks, blocking supply chains and emergency access.

Culture, Country, and Displacement

Connection to Country is central to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture, health, and identity.

But climate change is altering seasonal patterns, plant growth, animal migration, and fire behaviour, severing knowledge systems honed over millennia.⁵

In the Torres Strait, residents fear becoming Australia’s first climate refugees, facing relocation with no clear national plan.

Calls for Justice and Leadership

First Nations leaders are calling for climate justice that recognises their disproportionate vulnerability, the legacy of colonisation, and their right to lead solutions.

In 2022, eight Torres Strait Islanders lodged a human rights complaint with the UN, accusing the Australian government of failing to protect their islands.⁶

Climate adaptation led by Indigenous knowledge, such as firestick farming, sustainable water governance, and place-based resilience, offers critical pathways for the nation.

But without robust policy, funding, and constitutional recognition, those solutions risk being sidelined.

The Road Ahead

As climate extremes escalate, protecting First Nations communities must become a national priority.

That means listening to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voices, supporting self-determination, and embedding their leadership at every level of the climate response.

Because those most affected by climate change should never be the last to be heard.

Footnotes

1. The Guardian – Heatwaves bring health crisis to remote Aboriginal towns

2. ABC News – Torres Strait Islanders battle sea-level rise

3. Croakey – Too hot to handle: climate and health in remote communities

4. SBS News – Walgett’s drinking water crisis

5. Nature – Indigenous knowledge and ecological change

6. Reuters – UN rules Australia violated islanders' rights

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Q&A: How has Australia’s average temperature changed over the past century? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points Australia has warmed by 1.5°C since 1910 Seven of the ten warmest years have occurred since 2013 Minimum temperatures rising faster than maximums Climate change signals now outweigh natural variation Warming linked to extreme weather and bushfires

Australia has warmed faster than the global average, with widespread impacts now visible in every State and Territory.

The Bureau of Meteorology reports that Australia’s average surface temperature has risen by about 1.5°C since 1910¹.

This warming has accelerated in recent decades, with the last ten years ranking among the hottest ever recorded.

Australia’s seven warmest years on record have all occurred since 2013, and 2019 was the hottest year ever documented².

Historical Climate Records

Australia's instrumental temperature record began in 1910, providing a robust century-long dataset.

Analysis shows a steady upward trend, particularly since the 1970s.

The increase in average temperature is most pronounced in the interior and northwest regions of the country, but even cooler coastal zones have warmed significantly³.

Minimum vs Maximum Temperatures

Interestingly, minimum (night-time) temperatures have increased faster than maximum (day-time) temperatures.

This is consistent with global patterns and suggests long-term shifts in atmospheric and land-surface heat retention.

Warmer nights mean less relief from heatwaves, with serious implications for human health, energy demand, and agriculture⁴.

Attribution to Human Activity

Scientists attribute most of this warming to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activity.

The influence of natural climate variability (such as El Niño and La Niña) is now outweighed by anthropogenic signals in temperature data⁵.

Australia’s per capita emissions remain among the highest in the world, contributing to the problem at home and globally.

Impacts and Consequences

The consequences of warming are already being felt.

More frequent and intense heatwaves, longer bushfire seasons, coral bleaching, and declining snow cover are all linked to the rising national average temperature⁶.

For example, the devastating 2019–2020 bushfires were made significantly more likely by climate change-induced heat and drought⁷.

Looking Ahead

If global warming continues unabated, Australia could warm by another 2–4°C by the end of the century.

This would radically alter ecosystems, agriculture, coastal settlements, and the health of communities across the country.

Limiting warming to 1.5°C globally, as per the Paris Agreement, would require deep, immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

Australia’s warming story is a warning — and a call to action.

Footnotes

1. Bureau of Meteorology – Temperature Change Tracker

2. CSIRO – Australia's Warmest Year on Record

3. Climate Change in Australia – Regional Explorer

4. Australian Government – Hot Weather and Health

5. The Conversation – Climate Crisis Facts

6. Climate Council – Heatwaves Report

7. Nature – Climate Change and Australian Bushfires

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Which Parts of Australia are Warming the Fastest and Why - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points Central and northwestern Australia are heating fastest Cities are warming due to urban heat islands Rainfall changes, land cover, and geography amplify warming Indigenous communities and wildlife are most exposed

Australia's climate is warming fast but not evenly.

Some regions are heating at almost twice the national average, triggering wide-ranging consequences for people, ecosystems, and industries.

Warming Hotspots in the Heart of the Continent

The fastest warming areas in Australia are inland regions of Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Queensland.

In particular, the Pilbara and central Northern Territory have recorded temperature increases of more than 1.5°C since 1950, well above the national average of 1.4°C^[1].

These regions tend to be arid or semi-arid, which means they have less cloud cover and vegetation to absorb solar radiation.

Less moisture in the soil means more of the sun’s energy heats the land surface directly.

Why the Outback Is Getting Hotter

Multiple factors contribute to the rapid heating of inland Australia.

Dry soils, land clearing, and loss of native vegetation reduce evaporative cooling, accelerating the surface warming process^[2].

Rainfall has also declined across many inland zones, reinforcing the drying-heating feedback loop.

With less vegetation and fewer wetlands, the land reflects less energy back into the atmosphere, leading to further warming.

Cities Are Heating Differently

Urban areas like Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane are warming at a different pace, partly due to the urban heat island effect.

Concrete and asphalt surfaces retain heat, and population growth adds emissions and energy usage, intensifying city warming^[3].

In coastal areas, sea breezes and higher humidity slow down the rate of heating slightly compared to inland cities like Alice Springs.

Who’s Most at Risk?

Rural and remote Indigenous communities often live in the areas most exposed to heat extremes and have fewer resources for adaptation^[4].

Wildlife in central Australia, like the bilby and the central rock-rat, are also struggling to adapt to rapid environmental shifts.

Warming hotspots are pushing ecosystems toward critical tipping points, with cascading effects on biodiversity, food systems, and health.

What It Means for the Future

Understanding where Australia is warming fastest is essential for targeting adaptation strategies and protecting vulnerable populations.

Without rapid emission cuts and targeted resilience planning, large parts of the country may become increasingly uninhabitable during summer.

Inland Australia will likely remain a focal point of climate stress, even if national warming trends begin to stabilise.

The heat is rising and in Australia’s vast interior, it’s rising faster than anywhere else.

Footnotes

[1] CSIRO – Climate Change in Australia ↩

[2] Nature – Enhanced warming in Australia's arid zones ↩

[3] ABC News – Urban Heat Islands in Australian Cities ↩

[4] The Conversation – Heat Threatens Indigenous Communities ↩

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On the Brink: Australia’s Looming Climate Tipping Points - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points Australia faces multiple climate tipping points Coral bleaching threatens Great Barrier Reef Collapse of carbon-rich ecosystems is accelerating Bushfire feedback loop may already be active Risk of desert expansion in southeast and southwest

Australia is approaching dangerous climate tipping points that could push ecosystems past the point of recovery.

Scientists are warning that several critical climate systems in Australia are nearing collapse, or have already begun shifting irreversibly.

Tipping points are thresholds beyond which environmental change accelerates, becomes self-sustaining, and cannot be reversed by cutting emissions alone.

For Australia, a continent marked by climatic extremes, fragile ecosystems, and large carbon sinks, the risks are especially high.

The Great Barrier Reef: A Coral Graveyard in Waiting

One of the most visible, and urgent, tipping points is the degradation of the Great Barrier Reef^[1].

Marine heatwaves have triggered five mass bleaching events since 2016, weakening coral resilience and killing more than 50% of shallow-water coral cover in parts of the reef.

According to the IPCC, if global warming reaches 1.5°C, over 90% of the world’s coral reefs will likely disappear. At 2°C, virtually all are lost.

This collapse would devastate biodiversity and destroy an ecosystem that supports 64,000 Australian jobs.

Bushfires and the Forest-Climate Feedback Loop

Forests in southeastern Australia, including the fire-sensitive alpine ash and mountain ash ecosystems—are experiencing dieback due to hotter, drier conditions and more frequent fires.

The 2019–2020 Black Summer^[2] burned more than 24 million hectares and released 900 million tonnes of CO₂—nearly twice Australia’s annual emissions.

These emissions feed back into the climate system, increasing warming and fire risk. Scientists fear this self-reinforcing cycle is a major regional tipping point already underway.

Rainforests Under Stress: From Moist to Dry

In far north Queensland and Tasmania, rainforests once considered fire-proof are becoming increasingly flammable due to prolonged dry spells.

Once these ecosystems cross a threshold of desiccation and fire disturbance, their structure and function can shift permanently toward open woodlands or savannahs, resulting in reduced carbon storage and biodiversity loss.

The Climate Council^[3] notes that this transition is already underway in parts of the Daintree and Gondwanan rainforests.

Desertification in the South

Southern Australia’s Mediterranean zones, particularly parts of South Australia, Victoria, and southwest Western Australia, are drying faster than almost any other region in the Southern Hemisphere.

Declining winter rainfall and overuse of groundwater are pushing these regions toward a dryland tipping point.

Once vegetation cover collapses, soils degrade irreversibly, leading to expanding deserts and dust bowl conditions.

The Vanishing Carbon Sinks

Australia’s forests, mangroves, and seagrass meadows store vast quantities of carbon, but their ability to sequester CO₂ is being undermined.

Heatwaves, sea level rise, and fire-driven degradation reduce their carbon-capturing function, risking a net shift from sink to source.

This has global implications: if key Australian carbon stores collapse, the world loses critical buffers against climate breakdown.

Crossing the Line

Tipping points are not predictions.

They are warnings. They signal that some changes, once triggered, cannot be undone within human timescales.

Australian scientists urge rapid emissions reductions, landscape-scale restoration, and protection of remaining intact ecosystems as the only path to minimise irreversible loss.

Without immediate action, Australia could become both a victim and driver of global climate instability.

Footnotes

[1] IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (2022)

[2] Nature – Australia’s Black Summer of fire was not normal

[3] Climate Council – Tropical Rainforests Face a Bleak Future

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Australia’s Climate Update: Emissions, Heat, and Policy in 2025 - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points 2025 brings hottest winter on record Australia faces rising climate lawsuits Federal Government accused of emissions backslide Insurance crisis escalates in heat-prone areas Climate-linked migration pressure intensifies

Australia is confronting a series of extreme climate disruptions in 2025 as warming accelerates and public trust in federal climate policy frays.

Across the country, temperatures have soared to unprecedented highs even in winter, with national records smashed during what should be the year’s coldest months. ^[1]

This July marked the hottest winter start in Australia’s recorded history. ^[2]

Heatwaves pushed maximum temperatures beyond 35 °C in parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. ^[3]

“We’re witnessing the destabilisation of traditional seasonal boundaries,” said Dr. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist at the University of NSW. ^[4]

The Bureau of Meteorology linked the phenomenon to a record-breaking marine heatwave and underlying warming trends that have lifted Australia's average temperature 1.47 °C above pre-industrial levels. ^[5]

Government Emissions Policy Under Fire

Despite committing to net-zero emissions by 2050, the Albanese government is under scrutiny for approving new fossil fuel projects. ^[6]

Two large-scale gas developments—the Beetaloo Basin in the NT and the Scarborough project off WA—received federal backing earlier this year. ^[7]

Climate advocacy groups say these approvals are inconsistent with the Paris Agreement and threaten to undo emissions progress under the Safeguard Mechanism reforms. ^[8]

The government counters that domestic gas supply is essential to energy security, but critics argue the country is fuelling export-driven emissions rather than transitioning away from fossil fuels. ^[9]

Legal and Economic Pressures Escalate

Climate litigation is also ramping up. ^[10]

The Environmental Defenders Office (EDO) launched legal action against the Environment Minister in June, arguing that the approval of coal expansion at the Mount Pleasant mine ignored climate risks to human rights and the Great Barrier Reef. ^[11]

Meanwhile, insurance premiums have skyrocketed across flood- and fire-prone regions, with some northern Queensland homeowners facing policy cancellations altogether. ^[12]

The Insurance Council of Australia warned that the sector is under “existential stress” as extreme weather events become more frequent and less predictable. ^[13]

Pacific Displacement and Migration Impacts

Rising sea levels and worsening cyclones in the Pacific have pushed Australia to consider a more structured “climate migration” policy. ^[14]

Tuvalu and Kiribati are among the nations pressing for pathways that would allow for managed relocation, education access, and permanent residency. ^[15]

Australia’s Department of Home Affairs is reportedly assessing a climate visa pilot, but no formal announcement has been made. ^[16]

Observers say delays risk reputational damage in the region and could undermine Australia’s climate diplomacy ahead of COP30 in Brazil. ^[17]

Political Risks Mount

With national elections on the horizon, climate policy remains a major electoral battleground. ^[18]

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has doubled down on nuclear energy as an alternative to the government’s renewables-led strategy, despite cost and timeline uncertainties. ^[19]

Younger voters, increasingly concerned about climate inaction, have fuelled Green and independent momentum in urban electorates. ^[20]

In a year defined by global heat, sea-level rise, and shifting climate politics, Australia stands at a crossroads between rhetoric and real reform. ^[21]

Footnotes

[1] ABC News – Winter Heatwave Sets Records

[2] BoM – Monthly Climate Summary

[3] SBS – Winter Heatwave Breaking Records

[4] UNSW – Dr. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick

[5] CSIRO – Climate Projections

[6] The Guardian – New Gas Projects Approved

[7] AFR – Beetaloo and Scarborough Projects

[8] Climate Council – Safeguard Mechanism Reform

[9] RenewEconomy – Labor Defends Gas

[10] EDO – Mount Pleasant Climate Case

[11] SMH – EDO Climate Lawsuit

[12] ICA – July Insurance Crisis

[13] ABC – Insurance and Climate Risk

[14] The Guardian – Pacific Climate Migration

[15] DFAT – Pacific Migration Diplomacy

[16] Dept. of Home Affairs – Climate Visa Exploration

[17] Lowy Institute – Diplomatic Standing on Climate

[18] AFR – Climate and 2025 Election

[19] The Australian – Dutton’s Nuclear Plan

[20] The Guardian – Youth and Climate Independents

[21] Nature – Global Heat and Reform Stakes

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World Court Declares Climate Change an Existential Threat - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points   ICJ warns of global legal obligations on climate Greenhouse gases deemed human-caused and urgent Small island states hailed ruling as historic Industrialised nations expected to lead Ruling may shape future litigation, treaties Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal reaffirmed

The United Nations' highest court has declared that nations must act to curb greenhouse gas emissions or risk violating international law.

In a sweeping advisory opinion issued this week, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that climate change constitutes an “existential threat” to humanity and underscored that nations, especially industrialised ones, have binding legal responsibilities to prevent further global warming.¹

The opinion, though non-binding, represents the most powerful legal statement yet on the global climate emergency.² 

The court’s declaration comes as climate-induced disasters, from deadly floods in China to record-setting heatwaves across Europe and North America, highlight the mounting toll of inaction.

“States have an obligation to take all necessary measures to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction do not cause harm to the climate system,” the opinion stated.¹

Landmark Case Led by Island Nations

The ruling followed a 2023 request brought by the United Nations General Assembly and championed by Vanuatu and other small island developing states (SIDS), whose very existence is threatened by rising sea levels and intensifying weather patterns.⁴

“This is a legal and moral victory,” said Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s Climate Minister. “The Court has confirmed that the world’s most vulnerable are entitled to protection, and that major polluters must act.”⁴

The ICJ concluded that greenhouse gas emissions are “unequivocally caused by human activities” and stressed that failure to mitigate emissions, adapt to climate change, or support vulnerable countries could breach international law.¹

Legal Force with Global Implications

Though advisory opinions from the ICJ are not enforceable, they are authoritative interpretations of international law and often influence global treaties, domestic court rulings, and multilateral negotiations.³ 

Experts say the ruling could galvanise legal action by climate-vulnerable nations, especially in pursuing compensation or demanding policy changes from major emitters.

“This is a legal tsunami,” said Payam Akhavan, international law professor at the University of Toronto and counsel for the Pacific Island nations. “It affirms that climate inaction has consequences under law—not just politics.”⁴

The Court’s opinion is expected to bolster similar cases in regional and national courts, including ongoing legal actions in Europe, South America, and Africa, where plaintiffs argue that climate inaction violates rights to life, health, and culture.⁵

Responsibility of Major Emitters

The ICJ made clear that responsibility for preventing climate harm falls disproportionately on nations with the greatest historical emissions. That includes the United States, China, the European Union, and other high-income economies.²

The Court cited the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, warning that every additional increment of temperature rise deepens human suffering and environmental loss.¹

“The ruling affirms what science has long made clear: rich nations must lead in decarbonising, financially supporting poorer states, and advancing loss and damage frameworks,” said María Fernanda Espinosa, former UN General Assembly President.⁴

Political Pressure Ahead of COP30

The ruling adds momentum to global pressure on governments to deliver ambitious climate action ahead of the COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil, this November. 

Many countries have yet to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which outline emission reduction targets under the Paris framework.³

For climate activists and vulnerable nations, the ICJ opinion is not just a call to conscience—it is a call to legal duty.²

“This judgment transforms the climate crisis from a policy preference into a matter of global justice,” said Shyla Raghav of the nonprofit Climate Justice Now. “There can be no more excuses.”²

Legal Era of Climate Accountability

The ruling comes as climate litigation surges globally. Over 2,500 lawsuits have now been filed across 60 jurisdictions, targeting fossil fuel companies, governments, and banks that fund polluting infrastructure.⁵

As world leaders prepare for the next phase of negotiations, legal scholars warn that the era of voluntary promises may be ending. The ICJ’s decision sets the stage for a new paradigm where legal accountability drives climate ambition.³

In the words of one ICJ judge, “The future of the planet cannot be left to political discretion. It is a matter of law.”¹

Footnotes

1. ICJ Advisory Opinion – Full text of the court’s climate ruling (23 July 2025)
2. Al Jazeera – UN court says climate change is an existential threat (23 July 2025)
3. Associated Press – ICJ warns of legal climate obligations (23 July 2025)
4. Reuters – Pacific nations welcome ICJ climate ruling (23 July 2025)
5. Columbia Law School Climate Case Chart – Global climate litigation tracker

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Only 3 years left – new study warns the world is running out of time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change

The Conversation - Piers Forster  Debbie Rosen

Piyaset/Shutterstock

Authors Piers Forster is Professor of Physical Climate Change; Director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds Debbie Rosen is Research and Innovation Development Manager for the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, University of Leeds Key Points Only 25 countries have submitted updated climate plans Human-caused warming hit 1.36°C in 2024 The world reached an average of 1.52°C warming The remaining carbon budget could be gone in 3 years Just 10 countries plan to phase out fossil fuels G20 accounts for 80% of global emissions

Bad climate news is everywhere.

Africa is being hit particularly hard by climate change and extreme weather, impacting lives and livelihoods.

We are living in a world that is warming at the fastest rate since records began.

Yet, governments have been slow to act.

The annual global climate change conference of the parties (COP30) is just months away.

All of the 197 countries that belong to the United Nations were supposed to have submitted updated national climate plans to the UN by February this year.

These plans outline how each country will cut its greenhouse gas emissions in line with the legally binding international Paris Agreement.

This agreement commits all signatories to limiting human-caused global warming to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Governments must also bring their newly updated national climate action plans to COP30 and show how they plan to adapt to the impacts that climate change will bring.^[1]

But so far, only 25 countries, covering around 20% of global emissions, have submitted their plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions.

In Africa, they are Somalia, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

This leaves 172 still to come.

The nationally determined contributions are very important in setting out countries’ short- to medium-term commitments on climate change.

They also provide a direction of travel that can inform broader policy decisions and investments.

Aligning climate plans with development goals could lift 175 million people out of poverty.

But arguably only one of the submitted plans – the UK’s – is compatible with the Paris Agreement.^[2]

We are climate scientists, and one of us (Piers Forster) leads the global science team that publishes the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report.

This report gives an overview of the state of the climate system.

It is based on calculations of the net emissions of greenhouse gases globally, how these are concentrating in the atmosphere, how temperatures are rising on the ground, and how much of this warming has been caused by humans.

The report also looks at how extreme temperatures and rainfall are intensifying, how much the sea levels are rising, and how much carbon dioxide can still be emitted before the planet’s temperature exceeds 1.5°C more than it was in pre-industrial times.

This is important because staying within 1.5°C is needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Our report shows that human-caused global warming reached 1.36°C in 2024.

This boosted average global temperatures (a combination of human-induced warming and natural variability in the climate system) to 1.52°C.

In other words, the world has already reached the level where it has warmed so much that it cannot avoid significant impacts from climate change.

There is no doubt we are in dangerous waters.

Our dangerously hot planet

Although last year’s global temperatures were very high, they were also alarmingly unexceptional.

The data speaks for itself.

Continued record high levels of greenhouse gas emissions have led to rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

The result is rising temperatures that are rapidly eating into the remaining carbon budget (the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted within an agreed time).

This will be exhausted in less than three years at current levels of emissions.^[3]

We need to face this head on: the window to stay within 1.5°C is essentially shut.

Even if we can bring temperatures back down in future, it will be a long and difficult road.

At the same time, climate extremes are intensifying, bringing long-term risks and costs to the global economy but also, importantly, people.

The African continent is now facing its deadliest climate crisis in over a decade.^[4]

It would be impossible to imagine economies operating without fast access to trusted data.

When share prices plummet or growth stalls, politicians and business leaders act decisively.

None would tolerate outdated intelligence on sales or the stock market.

But when it comes to climate, the speed of climate change often outpaces the data available.

This means fast decisions can’t be made.

If we treated climate data as we do financial reports, panic would ensue after each dire update.

But while governments routinely pivot when faced with an economic downturn, they have been far slower to respond to what key climate indicators – the Earth’s vital signs – are telling us.

What needs to happen next

As more countries develop their climate plans, it’s time for leaders across the globe to face the hard truths of climate science.

Governments need to have fast access to trusted climate data so that they can develop up-to-date national climate plans.

The national climate plans need to take a global perspective too.

This is really important for fairness and equity.

For example, developed countries must acknowledge that they’ve emitted more greenhouse gases and take the lead in presenting ambitious mitigation efforts and in providing finance for other countries to decarbonise and adapt.^[5]

In Africa, the UN is hosting UNFCCC Climate Week in Addis Ababa in September.

As well as making plans for COP30, there will be sessions on accessing climate finance and ensuring that the transition to zero human-caused carbon emissions by 2050 (net zero) is just and equitable.

The summit also aims to support countries that are still working on their national climate plans.

If nationally determined contributions are implemented, the pace of climate change will slow down.

This is vital not just for the countries – and economies – currently on the frontline against climate change, but for a functioning global society.

Just five of the G20 countries have submitted their 2035 plans: Canada, Brazil, Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom.

But the G20 is responsible for around 80% of global emissions.

This means that South Africa’s current G20 presidency can help to ensure that the world prioritises efforts to help developing countries finance their transition to a low-carbon economy.^[6]

Another worrying factor is that just 10 of the updated nationally determined contributions have reaffirmed or strengthened commitments to move away from fossil fuels.

This means that national climate plans from the European Union, China and India will be key in testing their climate leadership and keeping the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goals alive.

Many other countries will be scrutinising what these countries commit to before they submit their own national climate plans.

The data in our report helps the world to understand not just what’s happened in recent years, but also what to expect further down the track.

Our hope is that these and other countries submit ambitious and credible plans well before COP30.

If they do, this will finally close the gap between acknowledging the climate crisis and making decisive efforts to address it.

Every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions matters.

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Footnotes

1. Climate change: alarming Africa-wide report predicts 30% drop in crop revenue, 50 million without water ↩
2. Climate change has doubled the world's heatwaves: how Africa is affected ↩
3. Climate change is threatening Madagascar's famous forests – our study shows how serious it is ↩
4. Why Africa stands to benefit if rise in global temperatures is kept to 1.5°C ↩
5. Climate change makes life harder: in South Africa it’s likely to bring heatwaves, water stress and gender-based violence ↩
6. Heat extremes in southern Africa might continue even if net-zero emissions are achieved ↩

Hidden Dimensions of Climate Change: Surprising Facts Behind Earth’s Warming - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points Oceans absorb 90% of global warming heat, driving storms and coral loss. Methane traps 80x more heat than CO₂ over 20 years, despite short lifespan. Thawing permafrost releases carbon, risking unstoppable warming feedbacks. Coral reefs have lost half their area in 30 years due to temperature stress. CO₂ levels exceed 420 ppm — a high not seen in 2 million years. Ocean acidification threatens marine life and Australia’s coastal industries.

As public awareness of climate change continues to grow, much of the attention understandably centres on visible signs: melting glaciers, scorched bushland, and record-breaking heatwaves.

Yet behind these headlines lie lesser-known but critical scientific truths.

They highlight the full scope of climate disruption and suggest cascading consequences for ecosystems, economies, and communities alike.

Here are several surprisingly overlooked facts that shed new light on climate change, global warming, and the greenhouse gases driving them.

Oceans: The Silent Heat Sink

While many people associate climate change mainly with rising temperatures in the air, the reality is that most of the planet’s excess heat doesn’t stay in the atmosphere — it heads straight into the sea.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), nearly 90 per cent of the excess heat generated over the past five decades has been absorbed by the world’s oceans. ¹

That heat, stored deep below the surface, is powering more intense cyclones, rising sea levels, and widespread coral bleaching.

Because oceans warm more slowly than air, they’ve helped to mask the true intensity of global warming, all while driving subtle but significant shifts in Earth’s climate systems.

Methane: A Fast-Acting Culprit

While carbon dioxide takes centre stage in discussions about emissions, methane (CH₄) — mostly released through livestock, landfills, and gas extraction — is an even more potent, though short-lived, greenhouse gas.

Over a 20-year period, it’s capable of trapping up to 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide, according to Australia’s CSIRO and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. ²

Though methane only lingers in the atmosphere for about a decade, its climate impact during that time is enormous.

Reducing methane presents a rare opportunity: a fast, high-impact strategy to limit near-term warming while addressing manageable sources.

Thawing Permafrost: A Dangerous Feedback Loop

Hidden beneath far northern soils lies a vast stretch of permanently frozen ground known as permafrost.

These frozen layers, rich in ancient carbon, are beginning to thaw as temperatures rise.

That thawing releases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, creating a dangerous feedback loop that could further accelerate planetary warming. ³

The Arctic permafrost region holds roughly twice as much carbon as the entire atmosphere.

Some areas are breaking down much sooner than researchers previously believed.

The unpredictable nature of these emissions represents one of the greatest unknowns in global climate forecasting.

Coral Reefs: Sentinels of Sea Change

Nowhere is the impact of warming oceans felt more acutely than on the coral reefs that surround Australia and other tropical coastlines.

Often called the “rainforests of the sea”, coral reefs support over a quarter of all marine species. ⁴

What’s less commonly known is how sensitive they are to temperature changes.

Even a small rise in sea temperature can cause corals to expel their symbiotic algae, resulting in bleaching events that strip reefs of their colour and vitality.

The world has already lost around half its coral reefs over the past 30 years, and scientists warn that without immediate action, much of what remains may vanish in the decades to come.

CO₂ Levels Not Seen in Two Million Years

Before the industrial era, global CO₂ concentrations hovered around 280 parts per million (ppm).

Today, that number has surged past 420 ppm, reaching levels not seen for at least two million years, based on geological evidence. ⁵

This spike isn’t part of a natural cycle — it’s the direct result of burning fossil fuels and clearing forests on a massive scale.

The speed at which this change is occurring is unlike anything Earth has experienced in recent history.

That rapid pace leaves ecosystems and human systems with precious little time to adjust.

Ocean Acidification: The Invisible Threat

Carbon dioxide doesn’t just warm the atmosphere.

Roughly a quarter of human-generated CO₂ is absorbed by the ocean, causing seawater to become more acidic. ⁶

This process — known as ocean acidification — is making life difficult for shell-building creatures like oysters, mussels, and tiny plankton that anchor the marine food web.

Lower pH levels also pose a risk to Australia’s aquaculture industry and Indigenous communities who depend on healthy coastal ecosystems.

While ocean absorption of CO₂ reduces atmospheric concentrations, it comes with a hidden cost: the slow deterioration of life beneath the waves.

The Verdict: A Changing Earth with Hidden Complexity

All of these often-overlooked facts point towards a powerful realisation: climate change is not just about rising temperatures.

It represents a far-reaching transformation of Earth's physical, chemical, and biological systems.

From melting permafrost to acidifying oceans and vanishing coral reefs, ecosystems are reacting in ways that are often subtle — and sometimes irreversible.

Understanding these lesser-seen dimensions is essential not only for scientists, but for everyday Australians too.

They inform how we adapt, how we invest in the future, and how we hold governments and corporations to account.

Because more than ever, the climate fight isn’t just urgent — it’s deeply personal.

Footnotes

1. Oceans Absorb Global Heat — NOAA Climate.gov – How much of global warming is absorbed by the ocean?
2. Methane Potency — Environmental Defense Fund – Methane: The Other Important Greenhouse Gas
3. Permafrost Carbon Risk — NASA Earth Observatory – Permafrost and the Global Climate System
4. Coral Reefs and Biodiversity — GCRMN – Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2020
5. CO₂ at Record Levels — NOAA – Carbon dioxide now more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels
6. Ocean Acidification in Australia — Australian Government – What is ocean acidification?

A Toxic Tide in South Australia: Climate Change Fuels an Algal Crisis - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points Toxic algal bloom in Encounter Bay kills marine life. Sea temps rise 2.5°C in 2024 marine heatwave. Flood and upwelling events boost nutrients. Calm seas linked to bloom persistence. Ocean acidification enhances algal toxicity. Climate change compounds all key factors.

A toxic red tide has swept through South Australia's coast and the climate crisis is largely to blame.

In the coastal waters of South Australia, a toxic algal bloom has swept through Encounter Bay, leaving a trail of dead fish and raising urgent questions about the role of climate change in this ecological upheaval.

The bloom, dominated by the microalga Karenia mikimotoi, has disrupted marine ecosystems and local industries, drawing attention to the interplay of global warming and local environmental factors.

While climate change is not the sole culprit, its fingerprints are unmistakable, amplifying conditions that have turned the region’s waters into a breeding ground for harmful algae ^[1].

Marine Heatwaves: A Warming Ocean

Since September 2024, a marine heatwave has gripped South Australia’s coast, pushing sea surface temperatures 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal.

This unusual warmth, a hallmark of climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions, has created a perfect environment for Karenia mikimotoi to thrive ^[2].

Marine heatwaves, once rare, have become more frequent and intense in the Southern Ocean, a trend scientists link directly to global warming.

These elevated temperatures accelerate algal growth, prolong bloom duration, and stress marine life, contributing to the mass fish mortalities observed in recent months.

Nutrient Overload: Floods and Upwelling

The 2022–2023 River Murray flood, the largest in nearly seven decades, unleashed a torrent of nutrients into Encounter Bay.

Heavy rainfall, increasingly erratic due to climate-driven shifts in weather patterns, carried agricultural runoff and organic matter into the sea, enriching it with nitrogen and phosphorus ^[3].

In an unusual twist, a cold-water upwelling in the summer of 2023–2024 brought additional nutrient-rich waters to the surface, further fueling the algal bloom ^[4].

While upwelling is a natural process, its timing and intensity may reflect changes in ocean circulation linked to a warming planet.

Together, these nutrient surges, amplified by climate-related hydrological shifts, set the stage for the Karenia explosion.

Calm Seas, Persistent Blooms

Calm seas and light winds, coupled with stable high-pressure systems, have allowed the algal bloom to linger and spread across a 100-kilometre stretch of coastline.

These oceanographic conditions, which prevent currents or storms from dispersing algal cells, are influenced by climate variability ^[5].

Shifts in wind patterns and atmospheric pressure, increasingly common in a warming world, have created prolonged periods of tranquillity that favour bloom formation.

This meteorological backdrop, subtly shaped by climate change, has enabled the Karenia bloom to persist, threatening marine ecosystems and local fisheries.

Acidic Oceans: A Hidden Amplifier

Rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a primary driver of global warming, are altering the chemistry of the world’s oceans.

In South Australia, increased dissolved CO₂ has led to ocean acidification, a process that may enhance the growth and toxicity of harmful algae like Karenia mikimotoi ^[6].

Global research suggests that acidification can boost toxin production in dinoflagellates, posing greater risks to marine life.

While not the primary cause of the bloom, this climate-driven change acts as an amplifier, intensifying the ecological impact of warming waters and nutrient overload.

A Complex Web of Causes

The Karenia mikimotoi bloom in South Australia is not solely a product of climate change, but global warming’s influence is undeniable.

Marine heatwaves, nutrient surges from floods and upwelling, calm seas, and ocean acidification—all exacerbated by greenhouse gas emissions—have converged to create a toxic tide ^[7].

Local factors, like the River Murray flood, play a significant role, but their impact is magnified by a changing climate.

Looking Ahead

As South Australia grapples with the fallout of this algal bloom, the region faces a stark reminder of the broader environmental challenges posed by climate change.

Mitigating future blooms will require addressing both local nutrient inputs and global greenhouse gas emissions.

Without concerted action, such ecological disruptions may become a recurring feature of a warming world, threatening marine life and coastal communities alike.

Footnotes

1. Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms, NOAA
2. Marine Heatwaves in the Southern Ocean, CSIRO
3. River Murray Flood Impacts on Coastal Ecosystems, Australian Government
4. Ocean Circulation Changes and Upwelling, IPCC
5. Climate Variability and Oceanographic Conditions, BOM
6. Ocean Acidification and Algal Toxicity, Nature
7. Global Warming and Algal Blooms, ScienceDirect

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Australia on Fire Watch: Is Another Black Summer Brewing? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points El Niño has returned, bringing heat and dryness Fuel loads are dangerously high in eastern forests Fire agencies warn of a potentially devastating summer Australia's climate policies remain fragmented Communities urged to prepare for worst-case scenarios

Australia may be staring down the barrel of another Black Summer as climate, fuel, and policy failures converge.

El Niño is back, intensifying heatwaves and drying out the landscape.

Fuel loads in forests from Queensland to Victoria have reached alarming levels.

Fire experts say early conditions mirror those that led to the devastating fires of 2019–20.

The question now is not whether the fires will come, but how bad they’ll be this time.

A Dangerous Climate Setup

After three consecutive La Niña years of heavy rain and vegetation growth, Australia's eastern seaboard is now facing the opposite: heat, dryness, and accelerating fire risk. The Bureau of Meteorology officially declared the return of El Niño in September 2023^[1]. This weather pattern is historically associated with severe heatwaves and widespread bushfires.

The Climate Council warns that eastern Australia is already experiencing hotter-than-average temperatures, low soil moisture, and reduced humidity — all ingredients for extreme fire behaviour^[2]. These effects are amplified by the long-term trend of global warming, with Australia now 1.5°C hotter than pre-industrial levels^[3].

The Forests Are Ready to Burn

Years of above-average rainfall allowed vegetation to flourish across national parks, farmlands, and rural areas. But as those green thickets dry out, they become dangerous tinder. The Australasian Fire Authorities Council has flagged regions of "above normal fire potential" stretching from south-east Queensland down through New South Wales and into eastern Victoria^[4].

New South Wales Rural Fire Service Commissioner Rob Rogers recently said the current build-up of fuel is “even worse in some areas than it was before the 2019–2020 Black Summer”^[5].

Lessons Unlearned?

The 2019–2020 fires burned over 24 million hectares, destroyed more than 3,000 homes, and killed or displaced an estimated 3 billion animals^[6]. Despite a major Royal Commission and a raft of recommendations, experts warn that key reforms — including Indigenous-led land management, climate resilience planning, and equipment upgrades — remain patchy or underfunded^[7].

“We’ve had five years to prepare for this moment,” says bushfire researcher Dr. David Bowman. “In some areas, we have. In others, it’s business as usual — and that’s dangerous.”

Communities on the Frontline

Local councils and residents are being urged to update bushfire survival plans and revisit evacuation routes. In towns like Braidwood and Batemans Bay, fire crews are training harder and earlier than usual. But many vulnerable communities are still recovering from the last disaster and lack resources to fully prepare for the next.

“We are doing what we can, but we need national leadership on climate and fire policy,” says Cr Michael Lyon from the Byron Shire Council^[8].

Can This Be Prevented?

While fires are a natural part of Australia’s landscape, their frequency and intensity are being supercharged by human-induced climate change. The window to avoid a repeat of Black Summer is narrowing. Limiting global warming, implementing proactive land management, and fully funding emergency response systems remain the only realistic paths forward.

If not, the inferno will return — hotter, faster, and deadlier.

Footnotes

1. ABC News: El Niño declared in Australia
2. Climate Council: El Niño and Bushfire Risk
3. CSIRO State of the Climate 2024
4. AFAC Bushfire Seasonal Outlook
5. The Guardian: NSW RFS Commissioner Warning
6. Nature: Black Summer Impact Study
7. Australian Parliament: Bushfire Royal Commission Follow-Up
8. Echo Net Daily: Byron Council’s Climate Plea

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The 10 Lies That Are Fueling Climate Collapse - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points 1. Climate change is happening at unprecedented speed. 2. Human activity is the primary cause. 3. Myths persist despite strong scientific consensus. 4. Cold weather doesn’t disprove global warming. 5. Renewable energy is viable and scaling fast. 6. Economic ruin is a myth—action brings growth. 7. Defeatism is another form of denial. 8. Fossil fuel interests spread disinformation. 9. Every fraction of a degree of warming matters. 10. It’s not too late to change course.

The most dangerous climate myths are not just false, they are weapons used to delay action and discredit science.

“The climate has always changed”

This is true — but misleading.

Natural shifts have occurred over millennia, but today’s warming is happening faster and can only be explained by human activity.¹

“CO₂ is just plant food”

Yes, CO₂ feeds plants — but too much traps heat and drives planetary instability.

Atmospheric CO₂ is now higher than at any point in the past two million years.²

“It’s cold today — global warming must be fake”

Weather isn’t climate.

Warming disrupts the polar vortex, sometimes pushing freezing air into lower latitudes even as global temperatures climb.⁴

“Climate models are too unreliable”

Climate models have consistently predicted global temperature rises with remarkable accuracy.

They are essential tools, not speculative guesses.⁹

“Scientists don’t agree”

More than 99% of peer-reviewed studies affirm human-caused climate change.

The illusion of debate is manufactured, not real.³

“Renewables can’t power the world”

This myth is decades out of date.

Countries are already running on 100% renewables for hours or days at a time.⁵

“It’s too late to act”

Wrong again.

Every tonne of CO₂ avoided makes a difference. Every delay worsens outcomes. But there’s still time.¹⁰

“Climate action will wreck the economy”

The opposite is true.

Renewables generate more jobs than fossil fuels, and climate inaction costs trillions.⁶

“Humans are too small to change the climate”

We’ve already changed it.

From land clearing to emissions, we are the dominant planetary force.⁷

“It’s all a hoax”

This is the most toxic myth of all.

It's promoted by fossil fuel interests and conspiracists — not scientists, who rely on transparent, peer-reviewed data.⁸

Footnotes

• 1: NASA: Climate Change Evidence
• 2: NOAA: CO₂ Trends
• 3: IOP Science: Scientific Consensus on Climate
• 4: Washington Post: Polar Vortex and Warming
• 5: IEA: Renewables Report
• 6: IMF: Economics of Climate Change
• 7: National Geographic: The Anthropocene
• 8: The Guardian: Fossil Fuel Misinformation
• 9: Carbon Brief: Climate Model Accuracy
• 10: IPCC: Special Report on 1.5°C

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