31/08/2025

Melbourne 2050: Facing Climate’s Crucible - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
  • Melbourne could warm by up to 1.7°C by 2050[1]
  • Heatwaves and days above 37°C will triple in frequency[2]
  • Rainfall declines but extreme downpours intensify[3]
  • Sea levels projected to rise 12–26 cm by 2050[4]
  • Fire weather danger days to increase significantly[5]
  • Victoria has cut emissions 32% since 2005[6]
  • Adaptation will need to be transformative[7]

Melbourne is approaching 2050 under mounting climate pressure that demands rapid adaptation and bold emission reductions.

The city's climate is changing dramatically, with projections showing hotter days, longer heatwaves, and shifting rainfall patterns.[1][2]

Average annual temperatures could rise by up to 1.4°C in a low emissions scenario, or 1.7°C under high emissions, compared to 1986–2005 levels.[1]

Heat extremes will be more severe, and the city may face three times as many days over 37°C by 2050.[2]

Social Impacts

Vulnerable communities will be disproportionately affected by heat stress, worsening the urban heat island effect in expanding suburbs.[2]

Public health will be challenged, with increased hospital admissions for heat-related illness and respiratory conditions driven by bushfire smoke.[5]

Access to affordable cooling, safe housing and emergency services will be critical as extreme weather pressures social infrastructure.[2]

Economic Consequences

Melbourne’s economy will face disruptions, as droughts and reduced rainfall hit agriculture, and floods and fires threaten property and infrastructure.[3]

Insurance costs for homes and businesses in flood-prone or fire-vulnerable areas are likely to rise.[4]

The clean energy transition will reshape industry, with Victoria targeting net-zero by 2045, though the pace must accelerate to limit 2050 risks.[6]

Ecological Shifts

Cool season rainfall in autumn, winter and spring could decrease by up to 15%, stressing parks, waterways and gardens that define Melbourne’s liveability.[3]

Extreme rainfall events, up to 20–40% heavier, threaten floodplains and rivers, while bushfires are set to become more frequent.[5]

Sea levels around Melbourne are projected to rise 12–26 cm by 2050, threatening coastal habitats and suburban communities around Port Phillip Bay.[4]

Political Will and Climate Action

Victoria’s climate action legislation is ambitious, aiming for a 75–80% emissions reduction by 2035 and net-zero by 2045.[6]

Since 2010, the state’s emissions have fallen more than 32% below 2005 levels, supported by investment in renewables and efficiency.[6]

Experts warn momentum is insufficient, calling for rapid expansion of renewable energy, electrified transport, resilient infrastructure, and ecosystem restoration.[7]

Cultural Transformations

Melbourne’s cultural identity – festivals, sporting events and outdoor life – may face disruption as heatwaves force schedule changes.[7]

Adaptation will bring local innovation, from green roofs to resilient communities, reshaping how Melburnians gather and celebrate.[7]

Heritage precincts at risk of flooding and bushfire will require new protective measures, blending conservation with change.[4]

The Road to 2050

Melbourne’s fate depends on urgent action.

Some warming and sea-level rise are locked in, but severe impacts can be reduced through deeper emission cuts and bold adaptation.[6]

Equitable transformation across energy, infrastructure and social systems will be the city’s best safeguard against climate uncertainty.[7]

References

  1. Victorian Climate Science Report: Greater Melbourne (2024)
  2. Victoria’s Changing Climate (2025)
  3. Victoria’s Climate Action Targets (2025)
  4. Sea-level Projections for Victoria (2024)
  5. Environment Victoria: Heatwaves and Climate Change (2025)
  6. Victorian Government Action on Climate Change (2025)
  7. Victoria Climate Projections (2024)

Back to top

30/08/2025

Canberra 2050: A City Shaped by Climate - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key points
Canberra could warm by up to 1.8°C by 2050[1]
Five extra hot days over 35°C expected each year[2]
Rainfall may decline 14 per cent by mid century[3]
Severe fire weather days may nearly double[4]
ACT targets net zero emissions by 2045[5]
Biodiversity and water systems face critical stress[6]

Canberra is perched on the edge of immense change.

In the geometric heart of Australia’s bush capital, the slow scorch of a new climate future is already underway. [1]

Six of the 10 warmest years since records began in 1910 have occurred since 2013, and under existing trajectories, 2050 may look, feel and burn like nothing before. [1]

A Warmer, Drier Future

By 2050, Canberra’s average temperature could climb by 1.8°C above late 20th century levels if global emissions remain high. [1]

Even under ambitious cuts, a 1.1°C rise is likely, a swing that risks upending everyday life. [1]

Hot days topping 35°C will become alarmingly common, with an average increase of five each year by mid century compared to the 1990–2009 baseline. [2]

Bracing for those searing spikes, residents may recall the “Black Summer” bushfires of 2019–2020 and see new warnings as routine. [4]

Unpredictable rainfall haunts this future.

Annual rain may fall by 14 per cent under a high emissions path, the sharpest drop expected in spring, a trend placing real stress on Canberra’s famed gardens, iconic urban bushland and nearby agricultural regions. [3]

Even short brutal downpours and violent storms may become more frequent, carving fresh hazards for communities and infrastructure. [3]

Surging Heatwaves and Fire Risks

Already infamous for its crisp winters and gentle dry summers, Canberra may soon be known for its heat.

By 2050, longer and more intense heatwaves will become “the new normal", as the urban heat island effect amplifies the already rising mercury in denser city zones. [2]

Extreme heat does more than test comfort.

It strains hospitals, triggers spikes in heat stress and worsens chronic illness among the city's most vulnerable, including the elderly and those without reliable, cool shelter. [2]

It shapes culture, dictating when or if festivals, sports, and public life can take place outdoors.

Evenings, once a cool reprieve, may stay warm well past dusk, changing the way Canberrans work, rest, and gather.

Severe fire weather is also on an upward trajectory.

Where the city currently averages just 0.3 severe fire danger days a year, that number could nearly double by 2050, and more than quadruple by 2090 if emissions stay high. [4]

Past bushfires seared Indigenous heritage, trashed biodiversity, and cast thick smoke over Parliament House.

Canberra faces these threats more often, forced to adapt in ways large and small.

Ecological Impacts and Water Woes

Climate change in Canberra is a threat to more than comfort and the calendar.

Unpredictable rainfall and rising temperatures place immense pressure on local ecosystems.

Endangered grasslands and woodlands contract, sub alpine bogs, vital for flood control and unique to the territory, may retreat to cool margins or disappear. [6]

Iconic wildlife such as kangaroos and birds of prey lose habitat and food as tree canopies thin and water supplies dwindle.

Water security, long a matter of pride for this well planned city, stands at risk.

The enlarged Cotter Dam, built with climate shifts in mind, may not buffer the hotter, drier years to come. [6]

Unpredictable flows lead to both drought and flash flooding, while downstream cyanobacteria blooms close lakes and threaten recreation, biodiversity, and drinking water. [6]

Societal and Cultural Ripples

Canberra’s community resilience faces repeated testing.

Rising energy bills follow demand for air conditioning, especially for households unable to afford leafy neighbourhoods or retrofits. [2]

The risks fall unevenly, with the elderly, infants, renters, and people in public housing shouldering the greatest hardship during heat and fire emergencies.

In Canberra, climate is inseparable from culture.

The city’s shared love of parks, sport, and outdoor life faces new limits.

Ngunnawal custodians, who have lived with and adapted to climate swings for tens of thousands of years, encounter new forms of dispossession as fires threaten sacred sites, ceremony, and the ebb and flow of totemic species. [6]

Festivals may shift from spring to autumn, as organisers dodge spikes in heat and smoke, or else embrace digital and cooled indoor alternatives.

Public trust in institutions could also be tested, as demands mount for fair ways to fund adaptation and protect the vulnerable.

The Economics of Inaction

Economically, climate change sets up profound risks and opportunities.

Construction, infrastructure, hospitality and health sectors all face extra costs due to heat, fire, and insurance risk, while agriculture may shrink or change focus as rainfall declines. [3]

Insurance premiums and home values may be affected in fringe and bush adjacent suburbs, and transport disruptions multiply as heat buckles rails and scorches roads.

Yet the ACT’s diverse economy also fosters ventures in renewables, smart home tech, and climate resilient farming, with education and start ups poised to benefit if the right policies prevail.

The Politics of Climate Response

The ACT government has committed to net zero emissions by 2045, five years ahead of the nation’s current target, with interim goals including slashing emissions at least 65 per cent by 2030. [5]

All electricity used in Canberra is already sourced from renewables.

But the hard yards remain, significant emissions still flow from gas for heating, petrol fuelled cars, and aviation. [5]

With a near future rethink of public transport, urban design, and tree canopy required, the next 25 years will determine Canberra’s fate as a climate leader or a cautionary tale.

Residents have shown strong ambition, with surveys revealing more than 80 per cent willing to act on reducing emissions.

But success depends on sustained investment, government commitment, and a willingness to make tough choices on housing quality, active transport, and how to manage a “just transition” for those at risk of being left behind. [5]

Two Canberra Futures

The underlying message from those working in climate science here is unambiguous.

The difference between a world with 1.1°C warming and that with nearly 2°C is not incremental, it is transformative, separating a city that adapts and thrives from one overwhelmed by shocks and stressors.

Actions taken in the next decade, by government and citizens, will either blunt or unleash the most punishing extremes. [5]

Without global and local resolve, tomorrow’s Canberra may force a return indoors, or prove a model of adaptation, with cool, green refuges and a vibrant, resilient community that holds on to the best of its outdoor spirit.

References

  1. NARCliM2.0 ACT Climate Change Snapshot (2024), AdaptNSW
  2. ACT Government Climate Change Explained
  3. ACT State of the Environment Report
  4. NARCliM2.0 Bushfire Projections, AdaptNSW
  5. ACT’s Climate Strategy to a Net Zero Emissions Territory
  6. Australian Capital Territory State Climate Snapshots, AdaptNSW

Back to top

29/08/2025

Sydney 2050: Climate Change’s Looming Shadow - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key points
  • Projected rise of 1.5°C–3°C by 2050 with many more extreme heat days [1]
  • Sea levels expected to rise 16–29 cm by 2050 increasing flood risk [2]
  • Severe fire weather days will significantly increase by 2050 [3]
  • Winter rainfall may decline by up to 20–35% affecting water security [4]
  • Western Sydney could see 18 days above 35°C yearly by 2050 [5]
  • Climate inaction risks deep inequality economic loss and civic strain [6]

Sydney faces a perilous future as escalating heat, rising seas and intensifying fires threaten to reshape the city by 2050.

Projections point to a transformed metropolis, shaped by more extreme heat, rising seas, greater fire risk and shifting social, economic and cultural fabrics [1] [7].

Each scenario, whether present-day inaction or decisive mitigation, charts a radically different path for the city’s people, environment and identity [5] [8] [12].

A City Warming Fast

Sydney’s average yearly temperature is projected to rise between 1.5°C and 3°C by 2050, depending on the global emissions pathway taken [1] [7].

Heatwaves will become more frequent and severe, with the number of hot days above 35°C expected to almost triple compared to the late 20th century [1] [8].

In Western Sydney, already notably warmer than the coast, this could mean up to 18 days above 35°C each year, turning summer into a public health challenge, particularly for the elderly and vulnerable [5] [4] [8].

Hot nights, when minimum temperatures stay above 25°C, will also become common, affecting sleep, labour productivity, and health for millions [5].

The 2019 record of 1.1°C above the historical average will become the norm, not the exception [1] [10].

Rising Tides and Receding Coasts

By 2050, sea level in the Sydney region is set to rise by 16–29 cm under a high-emissions scenario, with 12–25 cm possible even if emissions are sharply curtailed [2] [1] [6].

The city’s low-lying coastal communities will face more frequent tidal flooding, permanent inundation of some streets, and increased coastal erosion, with major implications for infrastructure, housing and heritage sites [2] [3] [6].

Eighty percent of NSW residents live near the coast, making sea-level rise a direct economic and social threat as well as an environmental one [2] [3].

References

  1. Climate change in Metropolitan Sydney – AdaptNSW
  2. Sea level rise and climate change | Climate Council
  3. My Climate 2050: new tool reveals 2050 forecast | ACF
  4. HeatWatch: Extreme Heat in Western Sydney – The Australia Institute
  5. Climate Heat Map of Australia | Climate Council
  6. Sea Level Rise in Australia: Risks and Adaptation
  7. Sustainable Sydney 2030–2050: Continuing the Vision
  8. How hot will your neighbourhood be by 2050 | Climate Council
  9. The Committee for Sydney's resilience program – CFS
  10. Climate projections for Australia – CSIRO
  11. Hot Cities, Chilled Economies: Sydney, Australia – Arsht-Rock
  12. What does My Climate look like in 2050? | ACF

Back to top

28/08/2025

Fighting Climate Change: Australia’s Crossroads in 2025 - Lethal Heating Editor BDA



Key Points
  • Australia’s emissions dropped 1.4% to March 2025, now 28% below 2005 levels [3]
  • Renewables supply over 40% of electricity, target is 82% by 2030 [7]
  • Climate Change Act sets 43% cut by 2030 and net zero by 2050 [1]
  • Over $24.9 billion committed to clean energy and decarbonisation [1]
  • Safeguard Mechanism regulates industrial emissions, offsets remain controversial [2]
  • Grid upgrades and renewable rollout slowed by high costs and planning delays [2]
  • Public strongly supports renewables, coal phase-out, and COP31 bid [4]
  • Australia rated “Insufficient” for limiting warming to 1.5°C [2]
  • Experts recommend 75% emissions reduction by 2035 for credibility [9]

Australia is undergoing a critical phase in its response to climate change, marked by new policy shifts, emissions reductions, and ongoing debates surrounding energy and adaptation.

The latest news reflects increasing action from both the federal government and society, as well as recognition of the urgent need for progress to meet international commitments and protect local environments.[2]

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends

Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions have shown a downward trend over the past several years, driven primarily by the increasing share of renewables in its energy grid and improvements in energy efficiency.

Data released in August 2025 confirms a 1.4% drop in national emissions for the year to March 2025, reducing totals to 440.2 million tonnes, now 28% below 2005 levels, the baseline for the Paris Agreement.

This aligns the country with its interim target of 43% reduction by 2030 and signals substantial progress towards net zero by 2050.[3][7]

Electricity sector emissions notably declined, linked to the rapid expansion of wind and solar. 

Renewables now supply more than 40% of the grid nationwide, with the government aiming for 82% renewables in the national electricity market by 2030.

However, emissions from transport, agriculture, and some industrial sectors have increased, requiring targeted policy responses such as new vehicle efficiency standards and industrial decarbonisation mechanisms.[8]

Climate Policies and Government Action

The passage of the Climate Change Act (2022) legally set Australia's targets, 43% emissions reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050.

The Act mandates annual reporting to Parliament and advice from the Climate Change Authority to keep targets science-aligned and responsive to changing conditions.

Recent budgets have allocated billions in climate-related spending, $4.6 billion for climate action out to 2030, plus $24.9 billion more for clean energy and decarbonisation since October 2022.[1]

  • The Rewiring the Nation program (over $20 billion): Upgrades transmission infrastructure, expands Renewable Energy Zones, and modernises grids to accommodate higher renewables.[3]
  • The Household Energy Upgrades Fund ($2 billion): Supports energy-efficient upgrades for homeowners and social housing, helping lower costs and emissions.[3]
  • The Safeguard Mechanism, reformed in 2023, is Australia’s main policy for reducing emissions from high-emitting industrial facilities. It sets declining annual baselines and allows facilities to meet them by reducing emissions or purchasing offsets.
    Critics have argued that over-reliance on offsets, particularly Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs), may not result in significant physical emissions reductions unless offset integrity and usage limits are enforced.[2]

Progress, Challenges, and Shortcomings

Australia’s policy reforms and increased funding have stimulated renewable energy growth, but the transition has faced challenges:

  • Speed of grid upgrades and renewable rollout is hindered by slow planning approvals, higher materials and labour costs, and local resistance to large projects.[2]
  • Investment in large-scale generation slowed in 2023, dropping from $6.5 billion in 2022 to just $1.5 billion, raising concerns about meeting future demand and transition goals.[2]
  • The Climate Change Authority warns that pipeline projects may fall short of target energy shares and recommends expanding programs like the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and embedding them in legislation.[2]

Furthermore, some coal and gas production continues to enjoy government support, risking emissions increases and failing to align with 1.5ÂșC warming thresholds.

The agriculture, buildings, and waste sectors have lagged behind electricity, remaining significant contributors to national emissions.[2]

Public Opinion and International Standing

Public support for climate action remains strong, though somewhat fluctuating: over 80% of Australians back subsidies for renewable energy, about 70% support reducing gas exports, and a majority still favour banning new coal mines, even as these positions see slight declines from previous years.

Australia’s bid to co-host COP31, the United Nations climate summit in 2026, reflects ambitions for global leadership, particularly with its Pacific partners, and enjoys majority public support.[4][5]

International climate monitors rate Australia’s current trajectory as “Insufficient” for limiting warming to 1.5°C, citing ongoing fossil fuel support, slow sectoral reform, and reliance on offsets.

While Australia’s legislated targets are ambitious relative to global peers, further action is needed to close policy gaps and guarantee actual emissions reductions across all sectors.[2]

Adaptation, Resilience, and Outlook

Recognising higher climate risks and increasing extreme events, such as bushfires, droughts, flooding, and heatwaves, Australia has elevated adaptation and disaster resilience in its national strategies.

The National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy highlights the importance of anticipating and managing climate risks, investing in infrastructure, and supporting frontline communities.[3][7]

Australia’s future climate strategy involves ongoing evaluation, updated targets, and policy refinements.

The upcoming targets for 2035 are under deliberation, with experts recommending significantly higher reductions (up to 75%) to remain scientifically credible and economically advantageous.

Continued investment, robust policy, and greater public engagement will be key to reaching net zero, managing risks, and enhancing Australia’s position in the global fight against climate change.[9]

References

  1. Climate Change Authority: Homepage
  2. Australia - Policies & action | Climate Action Tracker
  3. Australian Government Climate Change commitments, policies and ...
  4. 2025 Report: Climate change and energy - Lowy Institute Poll
  5. Climate resolutions for 2025
  6. New data shows emissions down in year to March 2025
  7. Australia on Track to Meet 2030 Climate Targets as emissions fall
  8. Climate Targets in Australia: Fact Sheet

Back to top

27/08/2025

Australia Faces Critical Climate Crossroads as Emissions Fall but Policy Gaps Persist - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
  • Australia’s emissions fell 1.4% to 440.2 Mt, 28% below 2005 levels [1]
  • Renewables now supply over 40% of electricity, aiming for 82% by 2030 [2]
  • Transport, agriculture, and industrial emissions still rising [3]
  • Climate Change Act 2022 mandates 43% reduction by 2030, net zero by 2050 [4]
  • Major programs include Rewiring the Nation, Household Energy Upgrades, and Safeguard Mechanism reforms [5]
  • Challenges: slow grid approvals, reduced investment, and continued fossil fuel support [6]
  • Public backing remains strong, while monitors rate the trajectory as insufficient [7]

Australia is acting on climate but the nation risks falling short of net zero by 2050 because of major policy gaps.

Australia is undergoing a critical phase in its response to climate change, marked by new policy shifts, emissions reductions, and ongoing debates surrounding energy and adaptation.[1]

The latest developments reflect action by the federal government and civil society to meet international commitments and protect local environments.[2]

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends

Australia’s national emissions have declined, with a 1.4% drop in the year to March 2025, now 28% below 2005 levels.[1]

Electricity sector emissions decreased as wind and solar capacity expanded, now supplying over 40% of the national grid.[2]

However, emissions from transport, agriculture, and some industrial sectors are rising, highlighting the need for targeted policies such as vehicle efficiency standards and industrial decarbonisation.[3]

Climate Policies and Government Action

The Climate Change Act 2022 legally mandates a 43% reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050, with annual parliamentary reporting and guidance from the Climate Change Authority.[4]

Budgets have allocated billions for climate action, including $4.6 billion to 2030 plus $24.9 billion for clean energy and decarbonisation initiatives.[3]

Key programs include Rewiring the Nation, Household Energy Upgrades, and Safeguard Mechanism reforms targeting high-emitting industrial facilities.[5]

Progress, Challenges, and Shortcomings

Renewable energy growth has been strong, but challenges remain.

  • Slow planning approvals, rising costs, and local opposition hinder grid and renewable rollout.[6]
  • Investment in large-scale generation fell from $6.5 billion in 2022 to $1.5 billion in 2023.[6]
  • Pipeline projects may not reach target energy shares; further legislative embedding is recommended.[6]

Ongoing support for fossil fuel production risks increasing emissions, while agriculture, buildings, and waste lag behind electricity in emissions reductions.[6]

Public Opinion and International Standing

More than 80% of Australians support renewable energy subsidies; around 70% back reducing gas exports, and a majority favour banning new coal mines.[7]

Australia’s co-hosting bid for COP31 in 2026 reflects ambitions for global leadership.[7]

International monitors rate Australia’s current climate trajectory as “Insufficient” for 1.5°C, citing fossil fuel support and reliance on offsets.[7]

Adaptation, Resilience, and Outlook

National strategies now emphasise adaptation, disaster resilience, and investment in infrastructure to manage climate risks.[3]

Future targets for 2035 may require up to 75% emissions reductions, highlighting the need for ongoing policy refinement, public engagement, and investment.[9]

References

  1. Climate Change Authority – Australia
  2. Climate Action Tracker – Australia policies
  3. Australian Office of Financial Management – Climate resources
  4. Climate Change Authority – Act & targets
  5. Climate Action Tracker – Safeguard Mechanism
  6. Climate Action Tracker – Transition challenges
  7. Lowy Institute – Public opinion 2025
  8. SolarQuarter – Renewable growth and targets
  9. Climate Council – 2035 targets analysis

Back to top

26/08/2025

Australians have their say on new climate targets as Coalition prepares for another brawl on net zero - SMH

Sydney Morning HeraldJames Massola  Paul Sakkal

Australians have expressed support for a significant increase to the country’s emissions-reduction target as the Climate Change Authority prepares to recommend a much more ambitious 2035 goal.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor survey showed 44 per cent of voters supported the goal of reducing the nation’s carbon emissions by between 65 and 75 per cent by 2035 – a significant increase on the current target of a 43 per cent reduction – by 2030. 

Targets are based on 2005 emissions levels.

Climate Change Authority chairman Matt Kean (left) and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen.
Credit:
Alex Ellinghausen
Of the 1800 people surveyed exclusively for this masthead, 18 per cent opposed the more ambitious target, and 38 per cent were unsure or undecided. Support from Labor and Greens voters was recorded at 59 and 64 per cent respectively.

The findings among Coalition voters mirrored deep division between the Liberals and Nationals on climate policy, with 32 per cent of Coalition voters backing the notional target, 29 per cent opposing it and the highest proportion, 39 per cent, unsure or undecided.

Climate change advocates support the more ambitious target, while some business groups oppose it.

The Climate Change Authority, chaired by former NSW Liberal treasurer and climate change minister Matt Kean, is in the first half of September expected to recommend a 2035 emissions target to Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen in the 65 to 75 per cent range.

A dispute within the Coalition over climate policy, which resulted in a temporary split between the Liberals and Nationals earlier this year, will be on display when parliament resumes this week.

Labor has taken the rare decision to allow parliament to debate a private member’s bill put forward by former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce that would force Australia to abandon its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050.

The government will allow debate on the bill this week and every week until there are no more MPs who want to speak to it. Governments usually block private member’s bills from being debated, but the Albanese government sees political advantage in allowing debate.

Joyce, who is now a backbench MP, dismissed suggestions that debate on his bill to dump net zero would help Labor by highlighting the divisions within the Coalition, and said he wanted greater scrutiny of climate policies.

“I believe this [net zero] is doing massive damage and hurting poor people. I am very happy for our parliament at least to give some transparency to what I believe is a massive swindle,” he said.

Support for 2035 emissions reduction target
Q: The Climate Change Authority is expected to release a new target for 2035 emissions reductions. 
Most experts think the target will be in the range of a 65-75 per cent reduction. 
Do you support or oppose adopting such a target?
n= 1800, Labor= 643, Coalition= 508, Greens= 189, Other= 326
Numbers may not add to 100 per cent due to rounding.


Australia committed in 2015 to the Paris climate change agreement, which binds countries to net zero emissions by 2050 and interim reduction targets every five years, under former Liberal prime minister Tony Abbott.

In 2018 Abbott then urged Australia to quit the Paris deal, but his successors Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison did not do so. Brawling over the Coalition’s policy on climate change has continued since that time.

A swag of current Nationals MPs, including Senator Matt Canavan and former leaders Joyce and Michael McCormack, are now leading a push for the Coalition to dump its commitment to the Paris deal.

Many Liberals support more ambitious climate action and fear further alienating major-city voters – who deserted the Liberal Party in droves at the past two elections – if support for the Paris deal is dropped.

Preferences for climate targets
Q: Both major parties support a ‘net zero’ emissions target for 2050, 
but some in the National Party have said they would like to ditch that target. 
Which of the following do you think is the best approach for Australia to take? 

n=1800

Over the weekend, the Queensland Liberal National Party voted to dump support for net zero, following a similar move by the WA Liberals, but the vote is not binding on the federal party.

The Resolve poll showed 48 per cent of marginal-seat voters and 45 per cent of uncommitted voters supported a 65 to 75 per cent emissions target.

The findings on the 2035 targets are contained in the latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted from August 11 to 17 and have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 per cent.

Earlier this month, in a major speech to the Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit, Bowen foreshadowed a busy period ahead in his climate portfolio that included “receiving and considering the Climate Change Authority advice on our 2035 target, and releasing that target alongside six sector decarbonisation plans and a new National Net Zero Plan”.

“That target will be ambitious and achievable,” he said.

Australia’s current target is a 43 per cent reduction in net emissions by 2030, set against the 2005 emissions level. 

Most experts believe that while Australia will fall short of reaching its 2030 target, a more ambitious 2035 target of 65 to 75 per cent will still be set by the Albanese government. 

A more ambitious target is likely to increase pressure on the government over stubbornly high electricity prices which have not come down substantially, despite a significant increase in cheap renewables.

The Resolve poll also asked voters about the best approach to take to Australia’s current 2030 targets. 

A total of 28 per cent of voters supported keeping the current target of cutting net emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, while 17 per cent supported a more ambitious target and 12 per cent backed rejecting or reducing the 2030 target and concentrating on net zero by 2050.

Another 17 per cent rejected all current emissions targets, while 26 per cent of voters said they were unsure.

Compared with June 2024, when these questions were last put to voters, overall support for the government’s emissions-reduction targets had fallen by a couple of percentage points in most categories, though within the poll’s margin of error in most cases.

On Monday, the Greens will use Senate rules to demand Labor release a tightly held climate change report.

The government has sat on the Climate Risk Assessment for months amid fears that its findings are so confronting that its release needs to be managed sensitively.

The Greens’ Senate order to produce documents expires at 9.30am on Monday, and the government is not expected to release the cabinet-level material.

Greens leader Larissa Waters said Australians had a right to know officials’ concerns about climate change risks before Labor started a debate about climate targets.

“We are extremely concerned about Labor’s decision to hide this assessment for over nine months. It is set to be a damning report which reportedly shows how continued coal and gas approvals are setting our country on a path to climate ruin – with homes within five kilometres of the coast set to be regularly flooded, major drought risks for much of the country, and all coral reefs dead,” she said.

“The government will soon launch its 2035 targets, which will show whether Labor intends to put the climate ahead of coal and gas profits, or whether their donations from fossil fuel corporations have slowed down progress yet again.”

Links

As Coalition battles, government is on track for climate cuts - SMH
Coalition of the unwilling: Climate wars will soon eclipse reunification relief - SMH
Right-wing group targets ‘weakling’ Liberals, as Hastie pushes Ley to dump net zero - SMH
Fiscal restraint or culture wars? Councils winding back climate action - SMH
Emperor penguins and three-metre sea level rises: the cost of Antarctica’s warming - SMH
How do you decarbonise an economy? Line by line, says Matt Kean - SMH

Back to top

24/08/2025

Cutting Emissions Fast While Building a Fair and Liveable Future - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
  • Rapid emissions cuts demand systemic change, not just individual action [1]
  • Clean energy transition must prioritise equity and access [2]
  • Climate policies must integrate jobs, justice, and resilience [3]
  • Nature-based solutions are essential alongside technology [4]
  • Global cooperation and accountability remain decisive [5]

Humanity faces a narrowing window to cut greenhouse gas emissions while ensuring fairness and safety for all.

Urgency and scale of the challenge

The world is already more than 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, driving record-breaking heat, storms, and wildfires [1].

Scientists warn that global emissions must fall by almost half this decade to maintain a chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees [2].

This pace of change is unprecedented, but still technically and socially achievable if societies act decisively [3].

Transforming energy systems

Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy is the most direct way to reduce emissions [4].

Solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new electricity in most regions, yet fossil fuel subsidies continue to distort markets [5].

Phasing out coal, oil, and gas must be paired with affordable access to clean energy for low-income communities and developing nations [6].

Transport and industry transitions

Transport remains a major source of emissions, requiring expansion of public transit, electrification, and alternative fuels [7].

Industry, particularly steel, cement, and chemicals, must shift to cleaner production methods, supported by carbon capture and circular economy practices [8].

Governments can accelerate these shifts through investment, regulation, and research support [9].

Equity and climate justice

Climate action must prioritise vulnerable communities who contribute least but suffer most from climate impacts [10].

Policies must create green jobs, protect workers in high-carbon industries, and prevent energy poverty [11].

Indigenous knowledge, community participation, and fair financing are central to building just transitions [12].

Energy and land use planning must ensure rural and remote communities receive reliable power and sustainable livelihoods [19].

Climate policies should explicitly address historical inequalities, giving voice to marginalised groups and integrating social safety nets [20].

International climate finance must fund adaptation measures alongside mitigation, ensuring no nation is left behind in the transition [21].

Nature-based and technological solutions

Forests, wetlands, and oceans play critical roles in absorbing carbon and buffering against extreme events [13].

Protecting biodiversity strengthens climate resilience while providing food and water security [14].

Technological innovations like green hydrogen, carbon removal, and battery storage will be essential but cannot replace immediate emissions cuts [15].

Global cooperation and accountability

International agreements, such as the Paris Accord, provide frameworks but require stronger enforcement and transparency [16].

Wealthy nations bear historic responsibility and must support climate finance, adaptation, and technology transfer [17].

Civil society movements and citizen action remain vital in holding governments and corporations accountable for real progress [18].

References

  1. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
  2. United Nations – Climate Impacts
  3. International Energy Agency – Net Zero by 2050
  4. IRENA – World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023
  5. IMF – Fossil Fuel Subsidies
  6. WRI – Equitable Energy Transition
  7. IEA – Global EV Outlook 2023
  8. UNEP – Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction
  9. Climate Policy Initiative – Industrial Decarbonisation
  10. Climate Justice Alliance – Just Transition
  11. OECD – Green Jobs and Inclusive Growth
  12. IPBES Global Assessment Report
  13. The Nature Conservancy – Nature-Based Solutions
  14. UNEP – Emissions Gap Report 2023
  15. Climate Change News – Technology and Policy Updates
  16. UNFCCC – Paris Agreement
  17. Oxfam – Climate Finance Shadow Report 2023
  18. 350.org – Climate Movement
  19. IEA – Future of Energy Access
  20. UN DESA – Social Safety Nets and Climate Change
  21. Climate Funds Update – Adaptation Finance

Back to top

Climate Change in 2025: The World at a Tipping Point - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
  • Europe faces record-breaking heatwaves and deadly wildfires[1]
  • North America and Asia hit by severe floods and air pollution[3]
  • Antarctic and Arctic warming accelerates with irreversible risks[4]
  • Forty-five million displaced globally by climate disasters in 2024[6]
  • China’s emissions fall as solar power surges in 2025[9]

The New Reality of Extreme Weather

Record-breaking heatwaves have become an inescapable reality across Europe[1].

Temperatures soared above 40 degrees Celsius in cities from Madrid to Berlin[1].

Thousands of people have fled wildfires in Greece and Turkey, as relentless heat and bone-dry conditions rendered once-lush hillsides into tinderboxes[1].

London, a city used to modest summers, saw temperatures above 38 degrees for only the second time in modern history[1].

Heatwaves that previously struck once each generation now arrive every five or six years[1].

Officials say older adults accounted for almost 90 percent of heat-related fatalities in Europe’s recent spell of extreme weather[1].

Hospitals struggled as heat exhaustion filled emergency rooms, especially in France and Spain[1].

Power grids strained under unprecedented demand for air conditioning, yet the poorest neighbourhoods, often without access to cooling, suffered the most[1].

Wildfires forced the evacuation of tens of thousands in southern Turkey, with blazes jumping highways and consuming pine forests[1].

Government response teams in Greece spent days battling flames driven by gusting winds; many believe such disasters will recur more often as the atmosphere warms further[1].

Residents in Spain faced scorching heat and choking smoke, stressing both their health and local infrastructure[1].

Across the Atlantic, North America was not immune[2].

In the United States and Canada, air quality alerts stretched along the eastern seaboard, as wildfires pumped carbon and particles into the air[2].

Eighty-one million Americans spent days indoors amid warnings to avoid exertion and protect vulnerable loved ones[2].

China, Spain, and the United States also faced severe floods that inundated cities, washed out roads, and forced rescue operations rarely seen outside monsoon regions[3].

In South Asia, deadly monsoon floods swept through Pakistan and India, leaving thousands dead and millions displaced[3].

Extreme precipitation events, now fueled by hotter air that holds more water vapour, create risks that scientists insist will only magnify over time[3].

Abrupt Shifts in Antarctica and the Arctic

Far from the world’s political capitals, Antarctica is changing just as fast[4].

A new study published this August warns that abrupt, human-caused transformations are underway on the bottom of the planet[4].

Researchers have documented destabilisation of ice shelves once thought stable for centuries[4].

These shifts risk becoming irreversible without rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, threatening physical and biological processes vital to global climate regulation[4].

Colleagues say the breakdown in Antarctic systems may cascade into the Southern Ocean, upending ecosystems and fisheries across the hemisphere[4].

Urgent warnings now flow from climate scientists: global net zero emissions are needed to keep the climate close to 1.5 degrees of warming[4].

This message has found resonance at international summits, but progress remains slow amid competing national priorities[4].

Meanwhile, the Arctic Circle shattered temperature records[5].

Nordic countries reported highs above 30 degrees Celsius for extended periods, endangering traditional farming, undermining roads built on permafrost, and shrinking natural habitats for reindeer and polar bears[5].

The United Arab Emirates, half a world away, logged its hottest spring since records began[5].

Urgent adaptation planning and rethinking city infrastructure have become necessities for governments once unaccustomed to such extremes[5].

Human Impact and Mounting Risks

Forty-five million people worldwide were forced from their homes by weather-related disasters in 2024[6].

Villages in Bangladesh, coastal towns in Spain, and wildfire-ravaged communities in California joined a growing tide of climate refugees[6].

United Nations projections suggest that by mid-century, more than 3.4 billion people will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats[6].

Public health authorities are scrambling to respond[7].

A joint report from the World Health Organization and the World Meteorological Organization, published this week, highlights the escalating threat of heat stress for workers and outdoor labourers[7].

The report offers technical guidance to protect those most at risk: factory workers, agricultural labourers, and the elderly[7].

Health facilities must brace for growing surges in heat-related illnesses[7].

Newborns and older adults face sharply higher risk of death in extreme heat[7].

Trained personnel and structural interventions, like cooling centres and tree canopy expansion, are becoming central to city planning and public health strategies[7].

Adaptation and Policy Responses

Governments are stepping up adaptation and mitigation efforts[8].

Here’s the **rest of the HTML article** with all remaining sections and **11 fully hyperlinked footnotes** in small anchor numbers, keeping the text unchanged and using Australian spelling: ```html

Australia, deeply affected by fire and flood, is pioneering integrated climate resilience planning[8].

Policies now factor disaster risk into housing, transport, and biodiversity protection, with efforts underway to save emblematic species such as the Joshua tree from extinction[8].

In Europe, climate adaptation is being woven into urban design and architecture: green roofs, permeable pavements, and restored wetlands aim to increase cities’ ability to weather storms and heat[8].

The United Kingdom and the European Union focus on systemic resilience, linking housing and disaster response[8].

China’s emission profile offered a rare piece of good news[9].

In the first half of 2025, China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell by one percent, powered by massive growth in solar energy and declining emissions from industry[9].

Despite rising demand for electricity, new solar installations offset much of the increase, marking an unusual but encouraging trend among major emitters[9].

Noteworthy Scientific Developments

Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, already at record levels in 2023, are rising faster than anticipated[10].

The pace of global warming continues to accelerate, defying the expectations of earlier climate models[10].

Climate researchers warn that satellite vulnerability is now a serious concern[10].

Pollution in the upper atmosphere is making communications and navigation satellites more susceptible to space weather, compounding risks and threatening vital infrastructure[10].

Asian agriculture is already feeling the pinch[10].

Recent research shows rice production in India faces a 26 percent increased risk of failure in coming decades[10].

Food security and rural livelihoods will depend on rapid adaptation, improved crop technology, and large-scale investment[10].

The Struggle Ahead

All these trends point to a stark truth[11].

The struggle against climate change is not just about reducing emissions, but about adapting societies and economies to challenges that grow more complex each year[11].

International agencies underscore that the risks - from displacement and health impacts to infrastructure and food systems - will only intensify[11].

Extreme heat is now ranked as the deadliest climate risk, and adaptation efforts must keep pace[11].

Resilience planning is no longer a distant goal, but an immediate necessity[11].

The scientific community is clear: further delays in mitigation and adaptation will magnify impacts and deepen social inequalities[11].

Cities, nations, and global bodies will need to invest in early warning systems, public health, renewable energy, and infrastructure that can withstand the shocks of a warming world[11].

Action on all fronts, local, national, and international, is the only option remaining to meet the challenges of life on a rapidly changing planet[11].

This summer's extreme weather, scientific alarms from the poles, and mounting human cost are a wake-up call the world cannot afford to ignore[11].

Back to top

23/08/2025

What Gas is That? Get to Know Your Climate Pollutants - Gregory Andrews

Lyrebird Dreaming - Gregory Andrews


There’s a lot of confusion about greenhouse gases - what they are, where they come from, and how their impacts differ. CO₂-equivalent is a term that also gets thrown around n this space. It might be handy for accounting, but can blur our understanding of impacts and timescales for damage.

That's why I've written this guide. It's my plain-English attempt to help you understand each polluting culprit. And to understand the right fixes.

How to read the guide

  • Punch = how strongly a gas traps heat compared with CO₂.

  • Stay = how long the gas lingers (atmospheric lifetime).

Some greenhouse gasses are common giants, some are exotic heavyweights, and some quiet stayers. One isn’t even a gas at all! Let's break them down.

The Common Giant - CO₂

Punch: low (1 by definition)

Stay: long - it can persist for centuries to millennia.

Source: burning fossil fuels; making cement; deforestation and land-clearing.

Why care? CO₂ is cumulative. Like water in a bathtub, the level keeps rising while the tap's on. Every tonne avoided is warming we don't create.

The fix: electrify everything, stop new coal and gas, improve energy efficiency, protect and restore Country.

The Sprinter - Methane (CH₄)

Punch: high (30 to 80 times as powerful as CO₂)

Stay: short - about 12 years.

Source: leaks and venting from gas and coal; burping and farting from cattle and sheep; leaks from landfill and wastewater, prawn farms and piggeries.

Why care? Methane hits hard and fades fast. Cutting it now can cool the near term while we decarbonise CO₂ over the longer term.

The fix: plugging leaks; stopping gas venting and flaring; capturing landfill gas; composting; promoting lower-methane diets for humans and farm animals.

The Quiet Stayer - Nitrous Oxide (N₂O)

Punch: very high (over 300 times as powerful as CO₂)

Stay: long - about 120 years.

Source: nitrogen fertilisers and soils; manure; industry.

Why care? It’s the sleeper. Smaller volumes than CO₂ or CH₄, but bigger punch and longer stay.

The fix : precision nitrogen use (right rate, time, place); growing legumes and cover crops; improving manure management.

Exotic Heavyweights - F-gases (HFCs, SF₆, NF₃, PFCs)

Punch: extreme (hundreds to tens of thousands of times CO₂)

Stay: from decades to millennia.

Source: refrigeration, air con and heat pumps; high-voltage switchgear; semiconductors; some aerosols.

Why care? Tiny volumes result in outsized warming. Leakage really matters.

The fix: continue the Kigali phase-down; accelerate the shift to natural refrigerants (CO₂, ammonia, hydrocarbons); enforce strict leak detection, end-of-life capture and recycling.

Non-Gas Players - Water Vapour, Aerosols and Contrails

Water vapour: Warmer air holds more moisture, which amplifies warming and extreme weather. If CO₂ and methane go down, water vapour follows.

Aerosol pollution: Many polluting aerosols have been cooling the planet by reflecting sunlight. Cleaning the air (rightly) removes this masking effect, which is one reason we need to cut methane and the exotic heavyweights quickly while we decarbonise CO₂.

Contrails: Jet-made ice clouds formed in cold, humid air and covering the sky in thin lines. They almost double the direct CO₂ impacts of flying.

In the end, this isn’t a chemistry lesson. 

Knowing what gas is what can help turn the fog of terms and numbers into practical choices. 

We need to cut the fast heaters like methane, F-gases and contrails. 

We must phase out fossil CO₂ for good. 

And we need to steadily shrink nitrous oxide with smarter farming. 

Our decisions should reflect the different tempos of each pollutant. 

If we tackle each culprit according to its nature, we can buy relief now and safety for our future.

Links