Cooler Cities Save Lives

Need to Know – Stephen Leahy

Cities and towns need to go green to survive a hotter world

Key Points

• Over 3 million heat-related deaths (2000–2019)
• 30% urban greenery prevents 1.16M deaths
• Green areas reduce temperature by 3–5°C
• Urban heat island caused by traffic, buildings
• Traffic is #2 source of urban heat
• Green space lowers A/C use and flooding

Heat is a killer in many urban areas, with more than 3 million heat-related deaths globally between 2000 and 2019.*

Increasing vegetation in urban areas by 30% would have prevented 1.16 million of those deaths, according to a study in The Lancet.*

Urban greenery can cool cities by 3°C on average—a life-saving difference during heatwaves.*

Botanical gardens, wetlands, tree-lined streets, and rain gardens can cool city air by 4–5°C according to a global study.

Parks, playgrounds, and urban farming also deliver about 3°C of cooling.

How trees, shrubs, and grasses cool cities:

1. Shade reduces heat absorption and radiation from surfaces.
2. Plants absorb heat and release water vapour, cooling the air.

Need-to-Know: Cities Are Hotter Than Rural Areas

Urban areas absorb and trap heat due to asphalt, concrete, and traffic emissions. This phenomenon is called the urban heat island effect.*

Note: 70–75% of fuel burned by vehicles becomes heat, intensifying city temperatures.

Need-to-Know: Road Traffic is the Second-Largest Source of Urban Heat

Even a 10–20% increase in vegetation could have prevented 27–32% of heat-related deaths.*

“Now is the time to start preparing cities for a much hotter world, while doing everything we can to slash emissions.”
— Rogier van den Berg, WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities

Vision of a future green city

Benefits of Greener Cities

• Trees can lower air pollution as they can absorb harmful gases and provide oxygen.
• Reduce noise levels.
• Provide critical habitat for pollinators and many bird species, both of which are in sharp decline.
• Enhance outdoor physical activity, social engagement, and psychological wellbeing.
• Lower rates of chronic disease.

Singapore is one of the world’s greenest cities (Source: Getty Images)

Green spaces reduce the need for air conditioning and improve flood management. China’s “sponge cities” use rain gardens, permeable surfaces, and increased greenery to address heat and water challenges.* (More here)

What Can We Do?

• Plant trees, rewild gardens, and grow food locally.
• Protect public parks and mature urban trees.
• Advocate for urban planning that includes green infrastructure.

Footnotes

1. * Source: Need to Know by Stephen Leahy.
2. * The Lancet Planetary Health, 2025. View study.
3. * Global urban cooling research via ScienceDirect.
4. * Urban heat island information sourced from WRI research.
5. * Study findings on vegetation impact from The Lancet.
6. * Source: WRI and Substack article on sponge cities. Full story here.

The Mid to Long-Term Effects of Climate Change on Food Production in Australia - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Summary

Farm profits already down 23% due to climate change Up to 50% further profit loss projected by 2050 Western Australia cropping at high risk from rainfall decline Livestock sectors face severe heat and water stress Extreme weather disrupts food supply and raises prices Grain prices could rise 3–24% by 2050 CO₂ may reduce crop nutritional value Water scarcity threatens irrigation industries Australia's food export status at risk Adaptation and emission cuts are essential

Australia’s food production systems are among the most climate-exposed in the world.

This is due to the country’s highly variable weather, large agricultural sector, and reliance on both domestic and export markets.

As climate change accelerates, its effects are already being felt across the nation’s farms and food supply chains.

Looking ahead to the mid (to 2050) and long-term (to 2100), the impacts are expected to intensify, presenting profound challenges for productivity, profitability, and food security.

Declining Productivity and Profitability

Research shows that climate change has already reduced average farm profits in Australia.

Between 2001 and 2020, broadacre farm profits fell by an average of 23% (about $29,200 per farm per year) compared to the period 1950–2000, largely due to changes in rainfall patterns and increased temperatures¹.

Looking forward, climate models project that by 2050, under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), average farm profits could decline by up to 31.9%, and under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), losses could reach nearly 50%¹.

The impacts are not uniform.

Cropping regions in Western Australia are particularly vulnerable, with projected winter rainfall declines of up to 30% under high emissions scenarios, compounding recent losses¹.

Livestock sectors, especially southern beef and sheep, could see profit declines of up to 63.8% under the harshest climate projections¹.

Regional and Sectoral Vulnerabilities

The effects of climate change on food production will vary by region and sector.

Inland and marginal agricultural areas, such as western New South Wales and central Queensland, face greater risks due to their reliance on variable rainfall and exposure to extreme temperatures¹.

Conversely, some coastal and higher-rainfall regions may fare better, but they too will face increasing challenges from heatwaves, pests, and diseases.

Livestock production is particularly sensitive to heat stress and water scarcity.

Higher temperatures reduce animal growth rates, milk yields, and reproductive performance, while also increasing mortality risk³.

Water availability for both livestock and irrigation will become more unreliable, especially in key regions like the Murray-Darling Basin¹.

Threats to Food Security and Supply Chains

Climate change will not only affect what and how much Australia can grow, but also the reliability and cost of food supplies.

Extreme weather events, such as droughts, bushfires, floods, and cyclones, are expected to become more frequent and severe.

These events can disrupt harvests, damage infrastructure, and interrupt transport, leading to supply shortages and price spikes⁴.

For example, Cyclone Larry in 2006 destroyed most of northern Queensland’s banana crop, causing prices to soar by over 500%⁴.

Droughts have repeatedly driven up grain and livestock prices, with flow-on effects for food processors and consumers.

By 2050, grain prices in Australia could rise by 3–24% due to more frequent droughts and reduced yields⁴.

Nutritional and Quality Impacts

Rising atmospheric CO₂ can affect the nutritional quality of crops.

Studies suggest that higher CO₂ levels can reduce the protein, zinc, and iron content of staple cereals, while also impacting vitamin levels in fruits and vegetables⁵.

Additionally, increased heat and drought stress can lower yields and quality, making it harder to meet both domestic and export standards.

Water Scarcity and Changing Land Suitability

Water is a critical limiting factor for Australian agriculture.

Climate change is projected to reduce rainfall in southern and eastern Australia, particularly in winter and spring, leading to lower river flows and groundwater recharge¹.

This threatens the viability of irrigation-dependent industries, such as fruit, vegetable, rice, and cotton production in the Murray-Darling Basin¹.

As rainfall patterns shift, some traditional cropping and grazing regions may become unsuitable for their current uses, forcing farmers to either adapt by changing crops and practices or abandon agriculture altogether².

Economic and Export Implications

Australia is a major exporter of wheat, beef, wool, and other agricultural products.

Climate-induced declines in productivity could threaten this status, potentially turning Australia from a net food exporter to a net importer for some staples².

This would have significant implications for rural economies, national income, and global food markets.

Higher production costs (for water, feed, pest control, and insurance), combined with increasing supply chain disruptions, are likely to drive up consumer food prices and increase volatility⁴.

Vulnerable populations, especially in remote and Indigenous communities, could face heightened food insecurity².

Adaptation and Resilience

Despite these challenges, Australian agriculture has a strong record of adaptation and innovation.

Farmers are already adopting drought-resistant crops, improved water management, and regenerative practices to build soil health and resilience.

However, the scale and speed of projected climate impacts mean that adaptation alone may not be enough without broader efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support rural communities¹.

Conclusion

In summary, the mid to long-term effects of climate change on Australian food production are likely to be profound and far-reaching.

Without decisive action, Australia faces declining farm profits, reduced food security, and increased vulnerability to extreme events.

Building resilience through adaptation, innovation, and emissions reduction will be essential to safeguard the nation’s food future.

References

1. Hughes, N., et al. "Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian farms." Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), 2022.
2. Cribb, J. "Climate change and food security in Australia." Australian Academy of Science, 2021.
3. Henry, B., et al. "Livestock production in a changing climate: adaptation and mitigation research in Australia." Crop and Pasture Science, 2012.
4. Hughes, N. "Climate change impacts on food supply chains in Australia." ABARES Insights, 2021.
5. Myers, S. S., et al. "Increasing CO₂ threatens human nutrition." Nature, 2014.

Freak wind gusts made worse by climate change threaten airline passenger safety

The Conversation – Milton Speer   Lance M Leslie

Image: AP Photo/Mark Baker

Authors Milton Speer is Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney Lance M Leslie is Professor, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

Unexpected severe turbulence injured crew and passengers on a Qantas Boeing 737 during descent at Brisbane on May 4 2024.

The subsequent Australian Transport Safety Bureau investigation suggested the severity of the turbulence caught the captain by surprise.

This is not an isolated event. Thunderstorms featuring severe wind gusts such as violent updrafts and downbursts are hazardous to aircraft. Downbursts in particular have been known to cause many serious accidents.

Our new research suggests global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of wind gusts from thunderstorm “downbursts”, with serious consequences for air travel.

We used machine learning techniques to identify the climate drivers causing more thunderstorm downbursts. Increased heat and moisture over eastern Australia turned out to be the key ingredients.

The findings suggest air safety authorities and airlines in eastern Australia must be more vigilant during takeoff and landing in a warming world.

The weather radar system on a 737 jet plane can detect a microburst just before it causes heavy turbulence.
Qantas, annotated by the ATSB

Warm, moist air spells trouble for planes

Global warming increases the amount of water vapour in the lower atmosphere. That’s because 1°C of warming allows the atmosphere to hold 7% more water vapour.

The extra moisture typically comes from adjacent warmer seas. It evaporates from the surface of the ocean and feeds clouds.

Increased heat and water vapour fuels stronger thunderstorms. So climate change is expected to increase thunderstorm activity over eastern Australia.

For aircraft, the main problem with thunderstorms is the risk of hazardous, rapid changes in wind strength and direction at low levels.

Small yet powerful

Small downbursts, several kilometres wide, are especially dangerous. These “microbursts” can cause abrupt changes in wind gust speed and direction, creating turbulence that suddenly moves the plane in all directions, both horizontally and vertically.

Brisbane airport recorded a microburst wind gust at 157km/h in November 2016. Three planes on the tarmac were extensively damaged.

On descent or ascent, aircraft encountering microbursts can experience sudden, unexpected losses or gains in altitude. This has caused numerous aircraft accidents in the past. Microbursts will become increasingly problematic in a warming climate.

Delta Flight 191 is the most famous aviation accident caused by a microburst.
Smithsonian Channel Aviation Nation

Microburst analysis and prediction

Microbursts are very difficult to predict, because they are so small. So we used machine learning to identify the environmental factors most conducive to the formation of microbursts and associated severe wind gusts.

We accessed observational data from the Bureau of Meteorology’s extensive archives. Then we applied eight different machine learning techniques to find the one that worked best.

Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence using algorithms to find patterns and make predictions from data without explicit programming.

We found atmospheric conditions in eastern Australia are increasingly favouring the development of stronger, more frequent thunderstorm microbursts.

We investigated a microburst outbreak from a storm front in 2018. It produced severe wind gusts at six NSW regional airports: Bourke, Walgett, Coonamble, Moree, Narrabri and Gunnedah.

Regional airports often use small aircraft, and planes with 4–50 seats are more vulnerable to the strong gusts spawned by thunderstorm microbursts.

Widespread consequences

Our regional case study identified the weather patterns that create severe thunderstorms in eastern Australia during warmer months.

High cloud water content creates a downward force in clouds that induces a descending air current. When the heavier air hits the ground, gusts spray out in all directions.

A small yet powerful downburst can deflect a plane’s descent path. Mehmood, K., et al (2023) Fluids, CC BY

These wind gusts endanger aircraft during takeoff and landing. Rapid wind shifts from tail winds to head winds can dangerously alter altitude.

Our analysis highlights elevated aviation risks from thunderstorm microbursts across eastern Australia. Smaller aircraft at inland regional airports are especially vulnerable. But these microbursts must also be monitored by major airports like Sydney and Brisbane.

Planes at Sydney Airport are most at risk during October to March. AAP Image/Dean Lewins

Beware of heightened microburst activity

Flying remains one of the safest travel modes, with an accident rate of just 1.13 per million flights.

But global passenger numbers have grown dramatically—meaning even a small increase in risk could affect many travellers.

Previous climate risk research has focused on high-altitude issues like clear air turbulence and jet stream instability. Far less has looked at low-level risks during takeoff and landing.

Our research is among the first to detail heightened thunderstorm microburst risks, driven by climate change. Airlines and safety authorities must prepare for more frequent and intense turbulence, especially over eastern Australia, in our ongoing warming climate.

Links

Managing the impact of climate change on aviation

How the climate crisis is making turbulence worse and flying more dangerous

Thunderstorms and climate change in Australia

Turbulence event and cabin crew injury involving Boeing 737, VH-VYK

Qantas promises staff safety overhaul following turbulence event that injured cabin crew

What weather is hazardous to flying?

Machine Learning Indicates Stronger Future Thunderstorm Downbursts Affecting Southeast Australian Airports

Australia and Climate Technology - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Links
➤ Direct Air Capture in Queensland
➤ Green Hydrogen Hub in WA
➤ Solid-State Batteries in Sydney
➤ Methane-Sniffing Satellite
➤ AI-Managed Smart Grids
➤ Carbon-Negative Bio-Cement
➤ Gene-Edited Crops
➤ Kelp-Based Ocean Carbon Removal

As much of the world struggles to meet climate targets and curb emissions, a quiet transformation is underway in Australia. 

Once criticised for its deep ties to fossil fuels and climate policy inaction, the country is now emerging as a surprising global leader in applied climate technology.

From large-scale solar hydrogen projects in the west to AI-managed power grids in the east, Australian scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs are developing and deploying tools that could shape a lower-carbon future.

Direct Air Capture Breaks Ground in Queensland

In March 2025, construction began on the Southern Hemisphere’s first commercial-scale Direct Air Capture (DAC) facility in western Queensland. 

The project, a collaboration between CSIRO and Canadian climate-tech firm Carbon Engineering, is designed to remove 100,000 tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere annually by 2027¹.

Green Hydrogen Reaches Industrial Scale in WA

In the arid Pilbara region of Western Australia, a vast new facility powered entirely by solar and wind has begun producing green hydrogen at industrial scale. 

The Asian Renewable Energy Hub, long mired in environmental approvals, finally came online in late 2024².

Solid-State Batteries Take Root in Sydney

In Sydney, a consortium of researchers and battery startups backed by Toyota and government grants has released the nation’s first commercial solid-state battery line. 

These advanced batteries, which replace flammable liquid electrolytes with stable solids, are safer, longer-lasting, and more energy-dense than their lithium-ion predecessors³.

Methane Monitoring from Space

Australia’s CSIRO, in partnership with the European Space Agency, launched a methane-tracking microsatellite in early 2025. 

Methane is a short-lived but powerful greenhouse gas, with more than 80 times the warming potential of CO₂ over 20 years⁴.

Smarter Grids and AI Forecasting

With solar panels now installed on more than one in three Australian homes, managing fluctuating energy supply has become critical. 

The Victorian Government, with help from Melbourne-based AI firm GridMind, has rolled out the country’s first AI-managed electrical grid⁵.

Low-Carbon Concrete from Algae and Waste

Cement manufacturing contributes up to 8% of global CO₂ emissions. 

But researchers at the University of Newcastle are piloting bio-cement made from algae, recycled glass, and industrial waste. 

When deployed in urban construction, this new material absorbs CO₂ during curing, effectively becoming carbon-negative⁶.

Gene-Edited Crops for a Warming Climate

Australia’s agricultural sector is also adapting to climate extremes. 

Scientists in New South Wales have used CRISPR gene-editing to develop a drought and heat-resistant variety of millet. 

Trials show yields 30% higher than conventional strains, even under low-rainfall conditions⁷.

Blue Carbon and Ocean Farming

One of Australia’s most ambitious efforts lies far off its southern coast: a 50-square-kilometer kelp farm, jointly operated by an Australian-American venture. 

Kelp absorbs carbon as it grows and can be sunk to the ocean floor to sequester carbon for centuries⁸.

A Turning Point in the Pacific

For decades, Australia’s climate narrative was dominated by coal, denial, and delay. 

That is changing, driven by science, opportunity, and necessity. 

With vast renewable resources and growing political will, Australia may yet become one of the world’s leading climate solution hubs.

The question now is not whether Australia can lead but whether the world will follow.

Footnotes

• ¹ CSIRO and Carbon Engineering Direct Air Capture partnership 2025 – CSIRO
• ² Asian Renewable Energy Hub status and hydrogen output – ARENA
• ³ Toyota-backed solid-state battery pilot in Sydney – energy.gov.au
• ⁴ CSIRO and ESA satellite methane detection project – CSIRO
• ⁵ Melbourne AI-managed energy grid initiative – Victorian Government
• ⁶ Newcastle University bio-cement research – University of Newcastle
• ⁷ CRISPR millet trials in drought-prone NSW – CSIRO
• ⁸ Southern Ocean kelp sequestration pilot – Blue Carbon Partnership

Australians of All Ages Are Feeling the Heat, Some Far More Than Others - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

From toddlers to pensioners, climate change is reshaping lives in very different ways. Age, it turns out, may be one of the biggest factors in how we experience global warming.

Impacts by Age Group

• Children: Vulnerable to heat and asthma
• Youth: Anxiety, activism, and economic fallout
• Adults: Insurance shocks and work disruption
• Seniors: Heat-related deaths and isolation

The Youngest Australians: Heat, Smoke and Disruption

As temperatures rise, so do hospital admissions for children under 14 suffering from dehydration and heatstroke.  

Government health data reveals that asthma attacks among children have spiked during recent bushfire seasons, with smoke and rising pollen levels triggering respiratory issues.

Climate-linked natural disasters also routinely interrupt school life in vulnerable regions. 

During the 2022 floods in northern New South Wales, dozens of schools closed for weeks, affecting thousands of students. 

Such instability affects not only education but also mental health, with many young children developing symptoms of trauma or generalised anxiety following evacuation events.

Teenagers and Young Adults: Anxious, Vocal and Bearing the Cost

Among Australians aged 15–29, climate change is not a distant threat, it’s an immediate psychological burden. 

A recent survey by The Australia Institute found that climate anxiety is highest in this demographic, with nearly 70% reporting significant concern for their future.

Financially, this group is also at risk of being saddled with the long-term economic cost of climate inaction. 

From home affordability in disaster-prone regions to the burden of future taxes funding adaptation, young Australians are set to pay more and get less. In response, they are leading the charge in protests, campaigns, and even litigation. 

One notable case, Sharma v Minister for the Environment, attempted to hold the federal government accountable for the climate impact of fossil fuel approvals, though the High Court ultimately dismissed it.

Middle-Aged Australians: Insurance Shock and Workplace Strain

For those aged 30–64, the climate crisis is taking shape through property damage and rising costs. Residents in high-risk flood and bushfire zones are being hit by insurance premium hikes or dropped entirely. 

In Lismore, premiums tripled in some post-flood neighbourhoods, rendering homes effectively uninsurable and unsellable.

Many working-age Australians are also exposed to physical risks, particularly in outdoor professions like farming, construction, and emergency services. 

Extended heatwaves and erratic weather patterns have increased the incidence of workplace injuries and reduced productivity. 

Meanwhile, the cost of living, especially in energy, food, and insurance, is climbing, partly driven by climate-related disruptions in supply chains and agriculture.

Older Australians: Heatwaves Prove Deadly

Australians over 65 are at the highest risk of climate-related mortality. Heatwaves already cause more deaths than any other natural hazard in the country, and that toll is projected to increase. 

Elderly people often have pre-existing health conditions, live alone, and may not have air conditioning—factors that compound their vulnerability.

During emergencies, isolation and mobility limitations make it harder for older residents to evacuate. 

After the 2019–20 bushfires, aged care facilities across regional NSW reported severe difficulties in managing smoke inhalation and emergency protocols for vulnerable residents. 

These are not hypothetical risks. They are already happening.

Why Age Matters in a Warming Australia

The age divide in climate impacts isn’t just a health or financial story, it’s deeply political. 

Those who contribute least to the problem are often the ones who will suffer the most, especially children and young adults. 

Meanwhile, older generations, while often more vulnerable to immediate physical harm, have disproportionately influenced the policies that have brought us here.

The next steps, whether in emissions cuts, adaptation, or disaster preparedness, must consider the unique risks and roles of every age group. 

Climate justice, increasingly, is about generational fairness too.

Evidence-Based Impact Assessment

🌡️ Extreme Heat: The Leading Threat

• Heatwaves cause more hospitalisations and deaths than any other weather event in Australia (Australia Institute, AIHW).
• Older Australians (65+) are the most affected, both in hospitalisations and fatalities.
• From 2012–2022, 7,104 hospitalisations and 293 deaths were attributed to extreme heat (Aged Care Commission).
• 374 excess deaths occurred during the 2009 southeast heatwave alone (University of Queensland).
• More than 36,000 deaths between 2006–2017 linked to heat, though undercounted (ANU ICEDS).

🌬️ Smoke and Respiratory Risk

• Asthma and respiratory illness spikes occurred during the 2019–20 bushfires, with up to 36% more asthma-related hospitalisations (Asthma Australia, AIHW).
• The fires affected over 10 million people, increasing ED visits for respiratory and cardiac distress (MJA).

📊 Age-Based Climate Impacts

Age Group	Primary Impact	Sources
Children (0–14)	Respiratory distress from smoke	Asthma Australia, AIHW
Youth (15–29)	Mental health burden, eco-anxiety	Australia Institute
Adults (30–64)	Property loss, occupational hazards	Risk Frontiers
Seniors (65+)	Heat-related death, mobility risk	Aged Care Commission, UQ

Further Reading

• Bureau of Meteorology: State of the Climate 2022
• AIHW: Air Pollution and Health
• Climate of the Nation 2023
• CSIRO: Climate Change in Australia
• Australian Department of Health: Climate and Health

Australia's Unseen Climate Toll: The Hidden Costs of a Heating Nation - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Impacts

• Aboriginal heritage under threat
• Alpine frogs face extinction
• Rainfall intensity undermines water security
• Red gum forests dying in the Murray-Darling
• Shark populations shifting south
• Smoke-related deaths on the rise
• Wine regions forced to migrate
• Cane toads expanding range
• Kelp forests in collapse
• Urban heat islands intensifying city risks

As global temperatures rise and extreme weather events become commonplace, much of the public conversation centres on bushfires, coral bleaching, and drought. 

Yet beneath these familiar crises lies a series of lesser-known, often overlooked consequences of climate change. 

These impacts reach deep into Australia’s ecosystems, cultures, and economies, transforming not only landscapes, but also the lives and heritage of its people.

Indigenous Heritage at the Climate Frontline

Along Australia’s coastlines and river systems, rising seas and intensified weather events are silently eroding sacred Indigenous cultural sites. 

In areas like Arnhem Land and Tasmania, traditional shell middens, ancient burial grounds, and rock art are being lost forever. 

As sea levels continue to rise and storm surges increase, cultural history is being erased without ceremony or record.¹

Vanishing Voices of the Alpine Bogs

In the cool heights of Australia’s alpine zones, amphibians like the Baw Baw frog and the alpine tree frog are under siege. 

The drying of alpine wetlands, linked to declining snowpack and rising temperatures, is pushing these species to the edge of extinction. 

Once the seasonal chorus of frog calls marked the thaw of winter. Now, silence descends.²

The Paradox of the Big Wet

Rain is falling in more intense bursts, but the benefits are diminishing. 

In Australia’s arid interior, violent rainstorms now generate flash floods rather than soaking rains. 

Topsoil erodes, runoff is wasted, and dams fail to capture the water needed for sustained agriculture and drinking supplies.³

Ghost Forests of the Murray-Darling

The iconic river red gum forests of the Murray-Darling Basin are fading into ghostly silence. 

Prolonged droughts, saltwater intrusion, and mismanaged irrigation have triggered mass dieback. 

Once lush floodplains now stand eerily still, lined with skeletal trees, a stark testament to a changing hydrological regime.⁴

Southern Shift in Apex Predators

Climate-driven ocean warming is altering the behaviour and distribution of top marine predators. 

Tiger sharks and great whites are now appearing further south than ever before, disrupting ecosystems and placing pressure on local fisheries and tourism sectors in Tasmania and Victoria.⁵

Smoke as a Silent Killer

During the catastrophic 2019–20 bushfire season, the smoke that blanketed cities was more than a nuisance—it was deadly. 

Over 400 premature deaths were linked to smoke inhalation, with thousands more hospitalised. 

With longer fire seasons forecast, air quality crises are likely to become a recurring public health emergency.⁶

A New Home for Fine Wine

Australia’s famed wine regions are feeling the heat. Literally. The Barossa and Hunter Valleys are becoming increasingly unsuitable for some traditional grape varieties. 

Meanwhile, Tasmania is emerging as a new frontier for cool-climate viticulture, producing crisp whites and elegant pinots that were once unthinkable from the island State.⁷

The March of the Cane Toad

Once confined to tropical Queensland, cane toads are now marching into previously inhospitable cooler zones, aided by warmer night temperatures. 

Their expansion is endangering native predators and ecosystems ill-equipped to deal with this toxic invader.⁸

The Disappearing Kelp Forests

Tasmania’s giant kelp forests, once underwater cathedrals teeming with marine life, have suffered catastrophic losses. 

Warming waters have devastated over 95% of this vital habitat. Entire marine communities, from rock lobsters to reef fish, are collapsing with it.⁹

The Hidden Heat in Our Cities

Australian cities are grappling with a new form of inequality: thermal inequality. 

Suburbs lacking tree cover or green spaces can be up to 10°C hotter than wealthier, greener areas.

 These urban heat islands amplify health risks during heatwaves, particularly for vulnerable communities and elderly residents.¹⁰

Conclusion

Australia's climate crisis is not just one of fire, drought, and coral bleaching. 

Its quieter catastrophes are equally consequential, changing where we live, how we grow food, which species survive, and which stories we are still able to tell. 

The response to climate change must reckon not only with the visible, but with the vanishing.

Links

• Climate Council of Australia
• CSIRO Climate Change Science
• Bureau of Meteorology Climate Updates
• Australian Government Climate Policy
• The Nature Conservancy – Australia
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Australia’s Icons Under Siege: How Climate Change Is Rewriting the Natural Map - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
Great Barrier Reef faces collapse from warming seas Uluru’s ecosystems disrupted by extreme heat Daintree Rainforest weakened by drying and disease Twelve Apostles eroding due to rising sea levels Kakadu wetlands threatened by saltwater intrusion Blue Mountains suffering from intense bushfires

Australia’s natural landmarks are beacons of ecological grandeur and cultural memory. 

Climate change and global warming are now eroding these natural wonders at an alarming pace, reshaping the physical contours of the continent and its identity.

The Great Barrier Reef: A Dying Kaleidoscope

No landmark illustrates the brutal toll of global warming more vividly than the Great Barrier Reef. 

Once teeming with life and colour, the world’s largest coral reef system has suffered six mass bleaching events since 1998, four of them since 2016. 

Ocean temperatures have risen steadily, and in 2024, a record marine heatwave caused extensive coral mortality across vast swathes of the northern and central reef zones.

The bleaching events are not cosmetic; they represent the breakdown of the reef’s symbiotic systems. Coral expels algae under thermal stress, leading to starvation and death. 

 As biodiversity collapses, the tourism industry, worth more than A$6 billion annually, is also under threat. 

Marine scientists now warn that without urgent emissions reductions, the Great Barrier Reef could become a “zombie ecosystem” within decades.

Uluru: Heat and Heritage at Risk

Uluru, the monolithic sandstone icon rising from the central desert, is facing climate threats from both above and below. 

The average maximum temperature in the Northern Territory has climbed significantly in the past 50 years, now regularly exceeding 40°C in the summer months. 

Increased aridity and heat stress are disrupting native plant life and diminishing traditional bush foods that are part of the Anangu people's cultural practices.

Additionally, flash flooding driven by intense rainfall events is threatening sacred rock art and ancient erosion patterns around the base of Uluru, long protected by stable desert conditions. 

These climate shifts have forced park rangers to reconsider traditional visitor patterns and seasonal closures.

The Daintree Rainforest: Losing the Ancient Green

North Queensland’s Daintree Rainforest, one of the oldest tropical rainforests on Earth, is being squeezed by a rising climate gradient. 

Higher temperatures and reduced dry season rainfall are drying the forest floor, weakening its capacity to sequester carbon and changing the ecology of keystone species. 

Invasive pests, like the yellow crazy ant, thrive in warming conditions, posing threats to native insects and tree frogs already vulnerable to habitat shifts.

Rainforest dieback, triggered by heat-stress and fungal diseases, is becoming more frequent. 

What was once a lush, climate-stabilising biome is transforming into a fragmented, drying patchwork that is less resilient and more fire-prone.

The Twelve Apostles: Sea and Storms Unmaking Stone

The Twelve Apostles, limestone sea stacks along Victoria’s Great Ocean Road, are slowly succumbing to a combination of rising sea levels, intensifying wave action, and extreme weather. 

Since 2005, two of the original stacks have collapsed, while erosion rates along the coastline have accelerated due to more frequent king tides and violent winter storms.

Warmer oceans are also increasing the energy of Southern Ocean swells, compounding the fragility of the region’s geology. 

The iconic coastal cliffs and arches formed over millions of years may not survive another century if current emissions trends continue.

Kakadu: A Wetland Out of Balance

Kakadu National Park, listed for both its cultural and natural heritage, is experiencing a quiet but devastating transformation. 

Rising sea levels are pushing saltwater further inland, intruding on freshwater floodplains that sustain waterbirds, crocodiles, and traditional Aboriginal agriculture. 

Mangrove die-offs and tidal surges are redrawing the wetland's edges.

In tandem, the drying of monsoon seasons is reducing water flow from upstream catchments. 

These twin pressures, saltwater incursion and freshwater depletion, are creating a destabilising feedback loop that could collapse critical ecosystems across the Top End.

Blue Mountains: Fire on the Edge

The Blue Mountains west of Sydney, renowned for their eucalyptus forests and dramatic escarpments, were pushed to the brink during the Black Summer bushfires of 2019–20. 

Fuelled by record heat and drought, the fires burned over 80% of the World Heritage-listed area. 

Recovery has been slow and uncertain, with scientists warning that the forest may not return to its pre-fire composition if extreme fires become more common.

More than just trees are at stake. 

The Blue Mountains shelter dozens of endemic species, including the critically endangered Wollemi Pine, dubbed a “living fossil.” 

Its last wild stands were narrowly saved through emergency water drops and containment strategies, but their long-term survival in a hotter world remains precarious.

Conclusion: The Fight to Preserve a National Identity

Australia’s natural landmarks are not just geological curiosities or tourist attractions.

They are the soul of the nation. 

But as the climate warms, these places are unravelling. 

What was once permanent is now precarious. 

The window to act is narrow, but the consequences of inaction are written across every bleached reef, scorched tree, and collapsing sea stack. 

Australia faces a stark choice: lead the world in climate resilience or witness the slow disappearance of its most cherished natural treasures.

Footnotes

1. Great Barrier Reef suffers worst bleaching on record – The Guardian
2. Coral Bleaching – Australian Institute of Marine Science
3. How Climate Change Threatens Traditional Land at Uluru – CSIRO
4. Daintree Faces Climate Threats – ABC News
5. Coastal Erosion at the Twelve Apostles – Victoria Environment
6. Saltwater Intrusion in Kakadu – NESP Threatened Species Hub
7. Black Summer Bushfires 2019–2020 – BOM Report

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C is now impossible

Le Monde – Audrey Garric

According to a group of scientists, the target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement can no longer be met due to the inability of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In Varanasi, India, on June 9, 2025. NIHARIKA KULKARNI/AFP

In recent months, scientists had already reached this conclusion individually.

On June 19, renowned French researchers, including former IPCC contributors like paleoclimatologist Valérie Masson-Delmotte, asserted collectively and unequivocally: the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as set by the Paris Agreement, “is no longer attainable.”

Backed by the CNRS and Météo-France, a new study published in Earth System Science Data confirms global warming’s acceleration. Signed by 61 scientists from 17 countries, the study presents a sobering overview of current climate indicators.

For the third year running, these researchers updated key data from the IPCC’s 2021 Working Group 1 report. “Our work helps fill a gap caused by the long publication timeline of IPCC reports,” said Aurélien Ribes of the National Center for Meteorological Research.

Carbon Budget Almost Exhausted

Among the most alarming findings: only 130 billion metric tons of CO₂ emissions remain to retain a 50% chance of staying within 1.5°C. That’s less than three years at current rates. 

“Methane continues to rise, accelerating the budget’s depletion,” noted Sophie Szopa of the French Atomic Energy Commission. Scientists warn we may breach the 1.5°C threshold by decade’s end.

Climatologist Christophe Cassou acknowledged this as a “reality check.” While emissions aren't dropping and the green transition is under attack globally, he insists the Paris Agreement “is not dead” and remains essential for climate negotiations.

The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 2°C is 1.05 trillion tons of CO₂, equivalent to about 25 years of emissions. However, carbon capture technologies to reverse overshoots carry major risks and cannot undo some irreversible damages.

Record Emissions, Record Temperatures

Greenhouse gas emissions hit a record 55 billion metric tons in 2023, driven by fossil fuels and deforestation. As air pollution controls reduce aerosols (which reflect sunlight), the warming effect of greenhouse gases becomes even more pronounced. 

CO₂ levels reached 423 ppm in 2024 – 50% above pre-industrial levels and a peak not seen in over 2 million years.

More greenhouse gases mean more heat trapped in the atmosphere. In 2024, global temperatures rose to 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels, with 1.36°C attributable to human activity. The rest was driven by natural variability, such as El Niño and unusually warm oceans.

'Unprecedented Rate'

“It’s not surprising,” said Cassou, “Climate models predicted a 50-50 chance of hitting these levels.” Most of the warming over the last decade—1.24°C—is due to human actions, not natural events like the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption.

Warming is now rising at an unprecedented rate of 0.27°C per decade. 

The result? More frequent and intense extreme weather events, glacial and ice sheet melt, and accelerating sea-level rise—3.91 mm/year from 2006 to 2024, over double the 20th-century average.

While some consequences are now irreversible, rapid emissions reductions can limit further damage. France’s 1.8% emissions drop in 2024 is not enough. 

Globally, current policies put us on course for a 3°C rise by century’s end. Greater action is needed, as emphasized in the ongoing climate talks in Bonn, Germany, running through June 26.

Links

• IPCC Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5°C
  The landmark 2018 IPCC report outlining pathways to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
• The World Has Already Blown Past the 1.5°C Climate Threshold—Now What?
  Nature explores the latest science behind temperature overshoot and its implications.
• Global Carbon Budget 2024
  An annual scientific assessment of global CO₂ emissions and the remaining carbon budget.
• UNEP: Emissions Gap Report 2023
  A critical look at the gap between current emissions pledges and what's needed to limit warming.
• Why the 1.5°C Target Matters—And Why It’s Still Worth Fighting For
  Carbon Brief breaks down the science, politics, and urgency of the 1.5°C goal.
• WMO State of the Global Climate 2024
  The World Meteorological Organization’s latest update on global climate conditions and trends.

Scientists looked back in time to find the first signs of human-caused global warming. It’s far earlier than previously thought

CNN Climate - Andrew Freedman

An iron and steel works factory in England in 1880. Print Collector/Hulton Archive/Getty Images

The human fingerprint on global warming was likely evident in Earth’s atmosphere far earlier than previously thought, even before the invention of modern cars, a new study says.

Using a combination of scientific theory, modern observations and multiple, sophisticated computer models, researchers found a clear signal of human-caused climate change was likely discernible with high confidence as early as 1885, just before the advent of gas-powered cars but after the dawn of the industrial revolution.

The findings, detailed in a paper published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), raise the likelihood that humanity has been remaking the planet’s climate in a detectable way for longer than previously believed, and highlight the importance of tracking changes in the upper atmosphere.

Scientists had begun to record surface temperature observations by the mid-19th century. The start date for a detectable human signal in surface temperatures has generally been thought to be in the early-to-mid-20th century, though other parts of the climate system showed signs of change at different times.

For this study, the veteran climate researchers posed the question: With the observational tools of today, when is the earliest that the signs of human-caused climate change would have been detectable in the atmosphere?

The study looked specifically at signals in the stratosphere, the second level of the atmosphere. Most weather occurs in the lowest level, the troposphere. While greenhouse gas emissions warm the lower atmosphere, they exert the opposite effect on the stratosphere, particularly its upper regions.

Researchers used this knowledge to examine climate models looking back in time for signs of these effects.

The findings surprised lead author Ben Santer and co-author Susan Solomon, who did not expect to find such a clear human signal in the upper atmosphere so early in the climate record.

“It was surprising, really surprising to me the answer that we could have identified with high confidence a human-caused stratospheric cooling signal within 25 years of the start of monitoring, if we had back then in 1860 the measuring capability that we have today,” Santer, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said.

The signal of climate change was detectable in the 19th-century atmosphere after just a 10 parts per million increase in carbon dioxide concentrations in the 40 years between 1860 and 1899. For comparison, planet-warming carbon dioxide levels skyrocketed by about 50 parts per million between 2000 and 2025, Santer said.

Overall, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have increased by about 140 parts per million since the initially detectible point the scientists pinpointed.

“The results show it would have been detectable very quickly,” said Gabi Hegerl of the University of Edinburgh, who was not involved with the new paper. “This highlights the strong influence that greenhouse gas increases have on the upper atmosphere compared to the variability there.”

Andrea Steiner, a climate scientist at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz in Austria, told CNN the study shows human-caused climate change can be detected earlier in the atmosphere than at the surface.

“This confirms that temperature change signals of the atmosphere are effective not only for detection, but also as early indicators of the success of climate mitigation efforts,” she said. Steiner was not involved in the new study.

Continued observations are key

Both Santer and Solomon emphasised the results show the importance of continuing to closely monitor the upper atmosphere.

That message comes at a time of steep scientific budget cuts, when crucial climate satellites and research programs are being targeted. This is particularly the case in the NOAA, NASA and Department of Energy budget proposals, Santer noted.

The NOAA budget proposal, for example, would eliminate the air and oceans agency’s research division, which includes carbon dioxide monitoring functions. In addition, the Trump administration’s NASA budget proposal would cut some climate-relevant satellite missions, while stripping future NOAA satellites of climate science sensors.

“I do think it’s important for non-scientists to know what’s at stake here. That when we lose the capability to measure and monitor how our world is changing, it makes us all less safe,” Santer said. 

Links

• PNAS: Human influence on climate detectable in the late 19th century
• NASA: The Causes of Climate Change
• Causes of Climate Change – European Commission
• How Humans Cause Climate Change – CFR Education
• VIDEO: Weather stations built at the world’s highest peaks offer climate change insight
• Trump’s budget plan eviscerates weather and climate research, and it could be enacted immediately

Albanese Government's 'Climate Policy' - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

• Approval of North West Shelf gas project extension
• Rejection of 'climate trigger' in environmental legislation
• Emissions reduction progress below expectations
• Australia's bid to host COP31 amid criticism
• Severe droughts affecting rural Australia

Approval of North West Shelf Gas Project Extension

In a move that has drawn significant criticism from environmental groups, the Albanese government approved a 45-year conditional extension of the North West Shelf liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.

Critics argue this decision undermines Australia's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources.

The government's justification centres on economic benefits and energy security, but environmentalists contend such long-term fossil fuel projects are incompatible with climate goals^[1].

Rejection of 'Climate Trigger' in Environmental Legislation

Efforts to incorporate a 'climate trigger', a mechanism to assess the climate impact of major projects, into Australia's environmental laws have been stymied.

Despite support from the Greens and environmental advocates, the Albanese government has resisted these calls, citing concerns over regulatory complexity and potential impacts on economic development^[2].

This stance has led to tensions within the government and with environmental stakeholders.

Emissions Reduction Progress Below Expectations

Data indicates that Australia's greenhouse gas emissions reductions are falling short of national targets.

The reliance on carbon offsets and the continued support for fossil fuel projects have been cited as factors impeding more substantial progress.

Analysts warn that without more aggressive policies and a shift away from fossil fuels, Australia risks missing its emissions reduction commitments^[3].

Australia's Bid to Host COP31 Amid Criticism

Australia's campaign to host the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) has been met with scepticism from the international community.

Critics argue the country's domestic climate policies do not align with the leadership role it seeks on the global stage.

The approval of new fossil fuel projects and the slow pace of emissions reductions have been highlighted as areas of concern^[4].

Severe Droughts Affecting Rural Australia

Parts of southern Australia, including Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania, and New South Wales, are experiencing intense and prolonged droughts.

These conditions have had devastating effects on agriculture and rural communities.

Environmental experts link these extreme weather events to climate change and criticise the government's inadequate response to both the immediate crisis and its underlying causes^[5].

Links

1. Approval of North West Shelf gas project extension ↩︎
2. Rejection of 'climate trigger' in environmental legislation ↩︎
3. Emissions reduction progress below expectations ↩︎
4. Australia's bid to host COP31 amid criticism ↩︎
5. Severe droughts affecting rural Australia ↩︎