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Climate Chaos Moves Into the War Room
When Australians picture national security, they may think of cyberattacks, military exercises, or maritime patrols.
But Australia’s top defence thinkers are now issuing warnings about a slower, more insidious threat: climate change.
The Australian Defence Force (ADF) has been called on repeatedly in the last five years to respond not to foreign attacks but to fires, floods, and cyclones.
From the devastating Black Summer fires of 2019–2020 to the catastrophic east coast floods of 2022, troops are increasingly deployed on home soil for climate disaster response, placing sustained pressure on a military designed for combat, not climate aid.
According to the 2024 National Defence Strategy[1], climate change is now explicitly recognised as a “threat multiplier”—a factor that exacerbates existing risks and challenges, both domestically and abroad.
Infrastructure at Risk
Much of Australia's defence infrastructure—airbases, naval ports, training grounds—sits precariously on the coast.
Rising seas and intensifying storms are not distant possibilities.
They are material threats.
Take RAAF Base Darwin, located just metres above sea level.
A study by the Climate Council[2] found that dozens of critical ADF facilities are vulnerable to climate-driven hazards including inundation and bushfire smoke.
Equipment damage, reduced readiness, and costly repairs are already on the ledger.
Disaster Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific
Beyond its borders, Australia faces growing responsibilities as a stabiliser in the climate-volatile Indo-Pacific.
Island nations like Tuvalu and Kiribati are on the frontline of rising seas and freshwater scarcity.
These environmental shifts are fuelling migration, political instability, and humanitarian crises.
As competition for influence in the Pacific intensifies—particularly between China and the U.S.—Australia must navigate climate diplomacy as geopolitics.
The ADF’s humanitarian missions in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga are now as critical to soft power as any treaty.
Conflicts Over Water and Food
Resource scarcity is no longer abstract.
In Australia’s interior, prolonged drought and heatwaves are tightening agricultural output, while water rights battles—such as those around the Murray-Darling Basin—become flashpoints.
Globally, the 2021 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report[3] warned of increasing risks of violent conflict over dwindling natural resources.
Australia’s defence and intelligence communities must now consider scenarios where climate-driven desperation—not ideology—fuels security threats.
A Call to Preparedness
The shift is underway.
The 2023 Defence Strategic Review[4] called for climate resilience to be “mainstreamed” into all aspects of planning.
Yet experts argue Australia still lacks a comprehensive Climate Security Strategy, leaving the nation reactive rather than proactive.
“We are playing catch-up in a rapidly destabilising environment,” warns Professor Michael Thomas of the Australian National University’s Climate Security Policy Centre[5]. “Resilience must now be baked into every tank, port, and policy.”
Conclusion
Climate change isn’t coming for national security; it’s already inside the perimeter.
Whether it’s burned landscapes, flooded runways, or political upheaval in neighbouring states, the line between climate impact and national defence is blurring fast.
The question is no longer whether climate will shape Australia’s security future, but whether the country will be ready in time.
