As the planet heats, the risks of armed conflict, authoritarian crackdowns, and civil unrest are heating up with it.
Climate Conflict Triggers
- Water scarcity and food shocks
- Mass migration across fragile borders
- Heat-driven state collapse
- Militarisation of the Arctic
- Authoritarianism as ‘climate control’
Climate change is fast becoming a threat to global security.
From the drought-ravaged Sahel to Pacific island nations on the brink of abandonment, a warming world is setting the stage for a more violent and divided future.
According to the United Nations Environment Programme1, environmental stress is now a central driver of conflict risk, especially in politically unstable regions.
Water Wars Are No Longer Science Fiction
In many parts of the world, shrinking water supplies are already inflaming political tensions.
The World Resources Institute2 reports that 25% of the global population lives in areas of “extremely high” water stress.
The Nile Basin, the Tigris-Euphrates rivers, and India-Pakistan’s Indus system are all water flashpoints.
Climate change is projected to increase these tensions by altering rainfall patterns and accelerating glacial melt, which supplies rivers in South and Central Asia.
Borders Under Siege
Mass migration, driven by climate shocks, is another looming fault line.
\By 2050, as many as 216 million people3 could become climate migrants within their own countries, according to the World Bank.
This does not include refugees who are already straining political systems across Europe and the United States.
In Australia, the federal government’s 2020 Defence Strategic Update4 warns of instability and displacement in the Indo-Pacific, regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise and cyclonic devastation.
Climate Collapse and Civil War
Countries with weak governance are especially vulnerable.
A 2015 study in PNAS5 linked prolonged drought, made more likely by climate change, to the outbreak of civil war in Syria.
In sub-Saharan Africa, repeated climate shocks have undermined agricultural economies, led to resource-based conflicts, and helped extremist groups thrive amid chaos.
The Pentagon has labelled climate change a "threat to national security”6 since 2014.
The Age of Climate Dictators?
As instability rises, so too may authoritarianism.
Governments under siege from climate-fuelled unrest may respond with emergency laws, surveillance, and repression in the name of “eco-security".
From bushfire evacuations to pandemic lockdowns, recent history shows how easily civil liberties can be curtailed during perceived environmental emergencies.
Climate breakdown could be used to justify indefinite suspension, or significant alteration, of legal order and the rule of law in democratic and non-democratic regimes alike, according to analysts at the Carnegie Endowment7.
Arming the Melting Arctic
The Arctic, once locked in ice, is now open for business - and conflict.
Melting permafrost and sea ice are unlocking new shipping routes and fossil fuel reserves, and nations are rushing to assert territorial control.
Russia has reopened military bases in the region, while NATO has increased patrols.
A 2023 NATO briefing8 warned that Arctic militarisation could spark future confrontations if not carefully managed.
Why It Matters
War in a warming world may not look like traditional invasions.
it will be fought over droughts, borders, and resource collapse.
Climate change is not only an environmental emergency.
It is a political and military risk that could fracture fragile states, stir nationalist aggression, and usher in new forms of authoritarian control.
As the thermometer rises, so does the potential for chaos.
Footnotes
1. UNEP: Climate Security Risks
2. WRI: Global Water Stress
3. World Bank: Climate Migration
4. Australia 2020 Defence Strategic Update
5. PNAS: Drought and the Syrian War
6. Center for Climate & Security: Climate as National Security Threat
7. Carnegie: Authoritarianism and Climate
8. NATO: Arctic Security Briefing