Global biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation threaten worldwide security and prosperity, and is already causing crop failures, intensified natural disasters, and infectious disease outbreaks across all regions, says the British Government’s latest Security Assessment.
The official analysis of Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security, says vertebrate populations have declined by an average of 68% since 1970, with freshwater species dropping 84%, pushing Earth past six planetary boundaries including biosphere integrity.
Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to irreversible collapse, risking cascading effects like geopolitical instability, resource conflicts, mass migration, and economic shocks as food and water scarcity intensifies.
Halting this trajectory demands urgent global action, such as the Kunming-Montreal Framework's targets for protecting 30% of land and ocean by 2030 and reforming harmful subsidies.
Biodiversity loss is a global threat
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Halting and reversing
Some of the solutions to biodiversity loss, such as forest
protection and restoration,biodiversity loss can only be enacted locally. Parties to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, including the UK, agreed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in 2022, a landmark agreement to ‘halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030.’ Its targets, if met, would change the current trajectory and include: • Protecting 30% of global land and ocean by 2030; • 30% of global nature to be under restoration by 2030; • Mobilising finance to close the funding gap of $700bn; • Reducing risks from pesticide usage by 50% by 2050; • Eliminating or reforming harmful subsidies by $500bn per year. It would also be necessary to meet the Paris climate agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C. |
Ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions and ecosystems.
The average size of monitored wildlife populations declined by 73% between 1970-2020.
Populations of vertebrate species have declined by an average of 68% since 1970.
Freshwater ecosystem species populations have shown the largest losses, falling 84% in the same period.
The rate of extinction is tens to hundreds of times higher than the average over the past 10 million years. It suggests that a sixth mass extinction may be underway.
With current trends, global ecosystem degradation is highly likely to continue to 2050 and beyond.
There is a high degree of uncertainty around the timing and pathways of ecosystem degradation, given the number and complexity of the drivers involved.
Food production is the most significant cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss.
As the global population grows, reaching 9.7 billion by 2050, the impact of food production on natural systems will intensify and it will become even more challenging to produce sufficient food sustainably.
Biodiversity loss impacts national security
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Degrading ecosystem functions
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Physical and biological impacts
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Human security risks
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International security risks
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Critical ecosystems are at risk of collapsing
If current rates of biodiversity loss continue, every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse.
An ecosystem collapses when it passes beyond a critical threshold or tipping point, after which it can no longer maintain essential functions or structure, leading to extensive shifts to its size and composition.
The ecosystem transitions irreversibly from one stable state to another. For instance, the Amazon basin collapse would see it shifting to a drier savannah state.
Case study: protecting and
restoring ecosystems improves
food system and societal
resilience to shocks. Planetary boundaries are the safe limits
identified by scientists for human pressure on nine
Earth system processes crucial for maintaining a stable
planet. |
Collapse impairs an ecosystem’s ability to provide vital services including clean water, food production, and climate regulation.
This could accelerate climate change and biodiversity loss and have catastrophic implications, including the collapse of major food sources and fundamental changes to global weather patterns and the water cycle.
As biodiversity loss and degradation continue, impacts become more severe and the likelihood of ecosystems collapsing increases. It is likely that ecosystem collapses would happen concurrently given their shared drivers and feedback loops.
There is a high degree of uncertainty around the timing and pathways of ecosystem collapse.
The drivers of ecosystem degradation are approaching the known thresholds for collapse - for example, the Amazon is likely to collapse at 20-25% deforestation when combined with temperature rises and forest fires; it is currently at 17%.
But the thresholds for collapse could be higher or lower than the science has been able to identify: we could be closer to, or further away from, the thresholds than we think; and there could be additional thresholds that we do not know about yet.
There is a realistic possibility that trends to date mean we have unknowingly crossed thresholds already and irreversible collapse of some ecosystems is inevitable (for example coral reefs), though we may not see the impacts for several years.
There is a realistic possibility some ecosystems start to collapse by 2030 or sooner, as a result of biodiversity loss from land use change, pollution, climate change and other drivers.
There is a realistic possibility that coral reefs in SE Asia and boreal forests will start to collapse from 2030, and rainforests and mangroves from 2050.
Preventing ecological collapse would require the reduction of human impacts, alongside restoration of ecosystems. Restoration of some ecosystems (tropical forests) is more feasible than others (coral reefs, Himalayas).
National security risks from ecosystem collapse
- Migration will rise as development gains begin to reverse and more people are pushed into poverty, food and water insecurity. A one percentage increase in food insecurity in a population compels 1.9 percent more people to migrate.
- Serious and Organised Crime will look to exploit and gain control over scarce resources. More people pushed into poverty will mean more opportunities for SOC to exploit (e.g. people trafficking and black markets in scarce food, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals).
- Non-state actors including terrorist groups will have more opportunities resulting from political instability - e.g. acting as mercenaries or pseudogovernments. They may gain control over scarce resources.
- State threats become more severe as some states become more exposed than others to food and water insecurity risks.
- Pandemic risk will increase as biodiversity degrades, people move between countries and transfer of novel diseases between species becomes more likely.
- Economic insecurity becomes more likely. Nature is a finite asset which underpins the global economy. It would take resources of 1.6 Earths to sustain the world’s current levels of consumption. The total annual value of ecosystem services to the UK was £87 billion in 2022 (3% of GDP).
- Geopolitical competition will increase as countries compete for scarce resources including arable land, productive waters, safe transit routes, critical minerals.
- Political polarisation and instability will grow in food and water insecure areas and as populations become more vulnerable to natural disasters. Disinformation will increase.
- Conflict and military escalation will become more likely, both within and between states, as groups compete for arable land and food and water resources. Existing conflicts will be exacerbated.
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