22/02/2016

CSIRO Cuts Provide Cause For Pause

Sydney Morning Herald Editorial

CSIRO boss Larry Marshall. Photo: Daniel Munoz

The chief executive of the CSIRO is paid to think about the future. Being the head of Australia's premier scientific research body demands thinking deeply about causes and consequences. It requires that you have a fair idea of what might be coming down the pipe, and what to do about it. To be taken by surprise is not a good look.
We can't know, but it doesn't appear that Larry Marshall, the physics-trained, former SIlicon Valley entrepreneur who came back from 25 years in the United States to lead the CSIRO in 2014, paid much regard to the consequences when he set in motion swingeing job cuts of 350 positions over two years, mainly in the Ocean and Atmosphere, and Land and Water units.
The cuts revealed two weeks ago include axing 100 full-time positions out of the 140 scientists in CSIRO's climate monitoring and modelling units. These are dedicated to research in areas such as greenhouse gas levels, sea level rise, ocean temperatures, ocean acidification and stemming global warming.
So, to consequences. Australia's reputation in science has already taken a big hit. The decision has "alarmed the global research community" said 2900 scientists from nearly 60 countries in a letter to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. It showed "a misunderstanding of the importance of the depth and significance of Australian contributions to global and regional climate research", they warned.
Howard Barnsey said: "Losing our ability to participate in large-scale ocean science and observation will ultimately erode Australia's ability to shape the future and influence regional affairs", he said. As Australia's former Special Envoy on Climate Change, and ex-head of the Australian Greenhouse Office, he should know.
Others warned Australia risks being isolated from the community of nations and researchers devoting serious attention to climate change. We will lose the reciprocal access we now enjoy to research done elsewhere, such as in the Pacific, in return for our longstanding expertise in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.
The federal government is encouraging youth to study STEM subjects – science, technology, engineering and mathematics – because we don't have enough qualified people to pursue the innovative future the Prime Minister envisages for the nation. The signal from the CSIRO cuts is that studying STEM is a gamble. Dozens of science PhD candidates or post-doctoral fellows who are being supervised by or working with CSIRO scientists will have their research disrupted. A brain drain to overseas is predicted.
The Herald acknowledges that to keep pace in a rapidly changing world, organisations must continually adapt and change, reprioritise and refresh. In current management-speak, you need to be "nimble" and "agile" to stay in the game. Dr Marshall is right to say that resting on laurels is a fast path to mediocrity.
Dr Marshall has indicated he wants to focus on new areas of growth especially those with high prospects for commercialisation such as titanium ink for 3D printing, clean coal and new food strains. But he has, as yet, provided no plausible answer to the question posed by the president of the Australian Academy of Sciences Dr Andrew Holmes: "Why would you want to throw away something that we're good at and that's useful?"
The decision smacks of having been hastily conceived and poorly executed. It is not clear that the CSIRO board even met to discuss it. There appears to be no coherent plan for which jobs will go and why those, nor for the new hires in growth areas which are supposed to claw back the job losses over two years.
Dr Marshall was poorly advised to justify the climate job cuts by saying the question of climate change "has been answered", and it's time to move on to how to mitigate it.
Maintaining climate modelling and monitoring capability as we learn how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and identify climate risks has never been more important. For now, the nation's scientists are scrambling to find homes for crucial research programs and science personnel in other institutions.
Here's a better idea. Dr Marshall should put the cuts on hold. There should be an independent review of what jobs are needed where, taking account of not just his organisation's but the nation's best interests. It may take a little longer, but the precautionary principle requires it. We have much invested, and much to lose. We don't want to be in the position of not knowing what we've got until it's gone.

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Backlash Against CSIRO’s ‘Cowboy’ Chief Larry Marshall

The Saturday PaperMartin McKenzie-Murray

As Larry Marshall signals cuts to various programs, CSIRO staff say he is either out of his depth or has questionable motives – or both.

When the CSIRO’s chief executive sat down last week to write an all-staff email – intended for some 5000 people – he knew he had to mix the good news with the bad. Larry Marshall was restructuring the 90-year-old institution, politically maligned but venerable, and about 350 job losses were slated – a third from those modelling climate change. But Marshall did not mix the bad news so much as bury it. We know this because the email was leaked in an angry contravention of Marshall’s appeal contained at the end of his long missive: “As you absorb this message I hope you appreciate the intent of treating everyone in CSIRO as a trusted insider.”
Within days, a besieged Marshall was offering qualifications while leaks continued from increasingly mutinous staff. “The mood is terrible and Larry doesn’t have the confidence of most staff,” one employee told me. “There are two reasons. The redundancies first, and how these are being handled. But fundamentally, many people are upset because he’s attacking the values and identity of CSIRO.”
This Wednesday, while Marshall was overseas, staff lodged a dispute with the Fair Work Commission, the industrial arbiter.

Visionary or cowboy?
Dr Larry Marshall began as the CSIRO’s chief executive a little over a year ago, in January 2015. He had returned to the country of his birth after spending 25 years in the United States, much of it in and around California’s Silicon Valley, where he managed tech start-ups and invested in emerging technologies. He also lodged 20 patents. Marshall holds a PhD in physics, and describes himself as an entrepreneur and business leader, as well as a scientist.
“I think he’s targeting anything that has been politically inconvenient.”
Marshall has suggested he is almost uniquely qualified to reimagine an institution at risk of ineffectiveness and “mediocrity”. A visionary, a scientist and a businessman. A man as familiar with scientific discovery as he is with dividends. “I’ve run companies through three recessions and 9/11,” he told colleagues last week, “and recognise change can be frightening, but we must embrace it and turn it to our advantage if we want to flourish.”
But his detractors among CSIRO staff – and there are many – have told me they see him as a self-aggrandising cowboy with a dangerous indifference to the values and history of the institution. Is Marshall a brave “disruptor” – a favourite word of his – or a man unsuited to head the public body? Or both?

Public storm
Larry Marshall’s leaked email has become the centre of a public storm. It has been parsed, mocked, qualified. The ruptures within the CSIRO are about much more than an email, of course, but for his critics it is an exhibit of his “destructive” hubris. “Marshall’s language is arrogant and ignorant,” a CSIRO staff member told me, “because he clearly doesn’t understand some of the science, and is not humble enough to acknowledge this. People are angry and upset. They’re disgusted by how he talks about CSIRO. It’s like he has no idea about CSIRO’s history and culture.”
The email is long. Verbose. It is both impassioned and disorganised, powered by a great self-assuredness. It enthusiastically surveys areas of scientific development – big data, clean coal, 3D printing. But the enthusiasm expresses itself in the language of Silicon Valley – one part jargon, one part bravado. “Our investment in precision agriculture combines unique sensors with predictive analytics to help our farming community respond to climate change, and grow their prosperity,” he writes.
For all the vision, there is something numbing about Marshall’s descriptions of health as a “major growth area” and that “keeping someone healthy has major exponential cost savings”. Of course, none of this deadened language, favoured by Silicon Valley venture capitalists and tech gurus, means he is wrong. But it jars with a good portion of his staff.

Concern about cuts
There has been concern among CSIRO staff about cuts to climate modelling. Marshall argues that the science of climate change is clear, and that the organisation must shift to climate “mitigation”. This debate has dominated reporting on the internal ruptures this week, but it is far from the only concern. Staff I spoke with suggest Marshall is fundamentally unsuited to the job because he has disregard for the very notion of public goods – the research that may not occur within the private sector because it’s regarded as unprofitable.
“The general trend seems to be that if you’re not making a lot of money then the research area won’t be supported,” I was told. “One consequence is that much of the public goods stuff is being targeted … The competitive advantage of CSIRO is its long-term research. Developing, over time, the capacity to tackle big problems.”
A spokesperson for CSIRO rejected this, telling me: “Pretty much all of CSIRO’s research activities includes a ‘public good’ – a benefit to the Australian public, either directly or indirectly.
“CSIRO’s function under our act is in part to carry out scientific research to assist Australian industry, further the interests of the Australian community and to contribute to the achievement of the Australian national objectives or the performance of the national and international responsibilities of the Commonwealth. These activities invariably include public benefits and this is so even in those limited cases where we do research under an engagement with a customer on a fully commercial basis.”
Other concerns were shared with me by staff. Some of the CSIRO’s work involves surveying public attitudes – to climate change, say, or aspects of mining. The industry jargon is “social licence to operate”, meaning the broad acceptance of an affected community. CSIRO work also involves contract-based research for private industry. There is nothing inherently improper about any of this. Surveying public attitudes is useful, while contract-based research is conducted independently and under peer review. The concern of some scientists, however, is that these arrangements may become corruptible in the future if the pressure to profit is increased. “Contract work is part and parcel of modern research and is of course not morally questionable in itself,” a staff member told me. “For instance, improving acceptance of developments like mining or coal seam gas isn’t necessarily wrong. But you must make sure that the governance structures are the right ones so that the independence can be ensured. Sometimes when you push the need to make money, there’s an adverse effect on the governance.”
The CSIRO spokesperson said the organisation has strong policies and procedures in place, “irrespective of whether the research has been funded by the government or from commercial sources”, and cited the employment of internal peer review for any report or publication for the public as a step before submission to review by the broader scientific community. Regarding “social licence to operate” topics, the spokesperson said the CSIRO’s research is conducted according to the National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Human Research and must be approved by an ethics committee.
“We believe this is a critically important contribution we can make in future,” the spokesperson said. “In addition to peer review, we are also assuring the independence of our work through appropriate governance mechanisms.”
But alarm was triggered among some staff when they read Marshall’s pledge to the resources sector in his email. “Commodities are the bedrock of our nation,” he wrote, “and we will always support that industry especially now in times of declining prices when innovation can fundamentally change the game.”
It struck some as strangely partisan. Staff I spoke with were not dismissive of mining. They respected its economic importance, but believed Marshall’s commitment struck a bum note – the CSIRO’s support of resources should be along purely scientific lines.
It conformed to the suspicions of one scientist I spoke to, who felt that the axed programs – Liveable, Sustainable and Resilient Cities; Biodiversity Ecosystems; and Adaptive and Economic Systems – were politically targeted. “If you read between the lines with some of the cuts, it’s as if the politically inconvenient areas are being trimmed,” I was told. “Climate science, social science and biodiversity. He hasn’t properly explained why these are the areas being targeted.”
The source went on to say Marshall “doesn’t understand social science. He thinks the future is in hacking Facebook and Twitter pages. I think he’s targeting anything that has been politically inconvenient or any research that is perceived to have a left-wing bias.”
When I asked the CSIRO why, in one of the world’s most urbanised countries, they did not have an urban research program, I was told that its functions were reflected in other areas. “While there may not be a specific research program carrying that title, CSIRO’s research does indeed contribute to the understanding, management and planning of the urban environment. Research done in any area of CSIRO from manufacturing to IT has applications to the urban environment.”

Crisis awaits
As I write, Dr Marshall is flying back to Australia. He will arrive amid crisis. Morale is low and industrial action is being pursued. The CSIRO spokesperson told me that the organisation will “work at communicating more clearly and directly to staff, and be clearer about intentions – it is a cultural change and it is inevitable that not everybody will be able to make that change”. This might underestimate the depth of rancour. I spoke with people who were practically eulogising their institution.
“An outrageous thing here is that this seems to have been a captain’s call,” a CSIRO staff member said. “I suspect there was no documentation about cuts and I doubt we will ever find out the real reasons. There was no consultation. It seems Larry doesn’t want to be limited by the rules.
“Some think that he’s treating CSIRO as his own private company. CSIRO is an important and proud national institution. So it’s a very odd fit. I don’t want CSIRO to be undermined and it needs to be supported into the future.”

Flying Blind: Navigating Climate Change Without CSIRO

Climate Council - Will Steffen

Planned cuts to CSIRO's climate science division would breach Australia's commitments under the Paris agreement and leave a gaping hole in the world's understanding of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere, our new report has found.
Flying Blind: Navigating Climate Change without the CSIRO examines the local and international ramifications of the recent decision to cut over a hundred jobs from the agency's climate science staff.

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT

KEY FINDINGS
1. The cuts to CSIRO's climate science will damage Australia's ability to understand, respond to and plan for a changing climate.
  • Governments and business rely on climate science to make billion-dollar decisions. Without it, they will be relying on guesswork. For example, the design of Brisbane Airport's new runway, built on a low-lying coastal fringe, was informed by the latest sea-level science from the CSIRO.
  • Climate modelling is the backbone of our ability to predict changes in the climate system, information that is vital to adapting to climate change and to building preparedness for our worsening extreme weather events. Cutting further model development will leave us dangerously exposed to the escalating risks of climate change.
  • Farmers and firefighters will be particularly exposed if Australia's climate science capabilities are reduced. CSIRO research is assisting farmers with tools and technologies to manage during more frequent and severe droughts. Climate science also supports bushfire responses by providing the knowledge underpinning high fire danger weather warnings and fire behaviour predictions.
2. If the cuts proceed, Australia will have already reneged on a key promise in the Paris climate agreement.
  • Australia, along with the rest of the world's nations, agreed to strengthen climate science as a fundamentally important component of meeting the climate change challenge.
3. The cuts will leave a gaping hole in the international science community's ability to understand climate change in the Southern Hemisphere.
  • Australia has the strongest climate research capability in the Southern hemisphere. Without it, the ability of the international scientific community to understand the changing atmospheric and oceanic circulation in this hemisphere, and what this means for the risks of climate change in our part of the world, including Australia itself, will be significantly diminished.
  • Almost 3000 scientists across 60 countries have written an open letter to highlight how these cuts will significantly limit CSIRo's capacity and diminish the global climate change research effort.
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21/02/2016

Cyclone Winston: Southern Hemisphere's Strongest Storm Hits Fiji

The Guardian - Nadia Khomami

Five people reported killed, power and communications cut, and remote villages feared to be heavily damaged as country begins cleaning up

Strong winds and heavy rain as Cyclone Winston hits Fiji

At least five people were killed and remote villages were feared to have sustained heavy damage after what was described as the strongest tropical cyclone in Fiji's history.
Fijians, tourists and aid workers were beginning the clean-up on Sunday after category five Cyclone Winston battered the South Pacific nation with wind gusts as strong as 325km/h and waves up to 12m high.
Trees blow in the heavy wind ahead of cyclone Winston's landfall onSaturday in Suva, Fiji. Photograph: Unicef via Getty Images

George Dregaso, a shift leader at Fiji's National Disaster Management Office, said on Sunday that two people on Ovalau Island died when the house they were sheltering in collapsed on them. Another man died on Koro Island and police were investigating reports of two more deaths on the main island of Viti Levu.
About 80% of the nation's 900,000 people were without regular power, although a third of those were able to use generators. Telephone landlines were down but most mobile networks were working.
Dregaso said 483 people had evacuated from their homes and were staying in 32 emergency shelters.
Authorities were urging people to remain indoors as they cleared fallen trees and power lines. They said all schools would be closed for a week to allow time for the cleanup.
A nationwide curfew was extended through Sunday and the government declared a 30-day state of natural disaster, giving extra powers to police to arrest people without a warrant in the interest of public safety.
Australian Red Cross aid worker Susan Slattery said from Suva: "Things will become much clearer over the next 24 hours and our first priority is to make sure people are safe and have the short-term assistance they need."
"At the moment we're focused on removing fallen power lines and trees to make sure it's safe for people to move around … then it's moving into finding out whether we need shelter and clean water, and what food and hygiene items are required to keep people healthy," Slattery said.
All flights in and out of Fiji remained cancelled on Sunday.
Authorities said that as well as the elderly man killed on Koro, there were fears for other people living on the island, north-east of Suva.
"Some villages have reported that all homes have been destroyed," Jone Tuiipelehaki of the United Nations Development Programme tweeted late on Saturday. "Fifty homes have been reported destroyed in the Navaga village in Koro Island."
Australia's foreign minister, Julie Bishop, offered Fiji assistance, including an Australian defence force P-3 Orion to carry out aerial surveillance of the outer islands.
Scenes of Cyclone Winston's destruction in Ba, Fiji. Photograph: Naziah Ali/EPA

About 1,300 Australians are registered as being in Fiji but that figure was likely to be far greater given up to 350,000 visited Fiji every year, Bishop said on Sunday.
Cyclone Winston began to make landfall on the main island of Vitu Levu after a national curfew took effect at 6pm local time on Saturday. It had earlier sunk boats and caused flash flooding on the nation's outer islands, including Vanua Levu.
The country's prime minister, Frank Bainimarama, said on Saturday that the government was prepared to deal with a potential crisis.
"As a nation we are facing an ordeal of the most grievous kind," he wrote. "We must stick together as a people and look after each other."
Damage from Cyclone Winston in the town of Ba on Fiji's Viti Levu island. Photograph: STRINGER/Reuters

Save the Children Fiji's chief executive, Iris Low-McKenzie, said: "We're extremely concerned about the impact this will have on children, who are particularly vulnerable during emergencies."
Airlines operating in the region including Virgin Australia, Jetstar, Qantas and Fiji Airways all reported cancelled flights or altered timetables, with passengers told to consult their carrier for information.

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Climate Change Politics Is Blinding Us To The Devastating Effects Of Dirty Air

The Guardian - John Vidal

Governments are failing to address the links between air pollution and global warming. Doing so would save countless lives globally
A rickshaw puller on a polluted a street in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Photograph: Zakir Hossain Chowdhury/Barcro



It is the greatest environmental hazard of the age. Nothing focuses our concern for the future more, divides rich and poor, exercises science, business, politicians, old and young. It is an existential threat, a generational battle. All political and financial resources must be concentrated on stopping climate change.
But now that governments have signed up to the unambitious Paris climate agreement and pledged to try to limit greenhouse gas emissions, we must ask whether we have lost sight of everything else. Is the environment just about carbon and parts per million of gases in the atmosphere? What about the environment that we can smell, see and touch today?
For 20 years or more concerns about nuclear waste, food production, the quality of river water, the health of our soils and seas, the fate of our forests, the impact of road-building and many other important ecological issues have been steadily marginalised, starved of resources or pushed off the agenda by climate change.
Climate has become for government an excuse to build nuclear power and ditch other green policies. Money for biodiversity has been slashed, planning laws revoked, pollution and waste controls weakened and sustainable development policies rejected. Most popular and ministerial attention has been focused on energy companies and big carbon polluters, and the wider environment has visibly deteriorated. Seeing trees as sticks of carbon, air as gas, or forests as sinks is abstract, esoteric and emotionally stultifying.
Most heinous of all the sins of emissions is what has happened to our air quality since climate change climbed the political agenda 20 years ago. No government wants us to know that far more people will suffer grievous illnesses and will die from the filthy air shrouding our cities than from any warming of the atmosphere in the next 30 years. Climate change may give us a glimpse of the terrifying future we are heading towards if we don't change our ways, but toxic air is already here, and killing us in ever greater numbers.
New estimates from the Global Burden of Disease project and the World Health Organisation state that between 5.5 and 7 million people die from air pollution every year. That's more than die from malaria and HIV/Aids put together; more than the population of Scotland. In the next 10 years we can expect as many people to die from breathing poisonous air as were killed in the second world war.
Most of those deaths will be in China and India which, in the name of extreme poverty eradication, have been transforming their cities and are now having to pay for a health crisis of their own making. But we in rich countries do not have the same excuses. Our industries and governments have known for well over a century the health effects of polluted air. Yet they have fought in Europe to be allowed to continue polluting, and people have been encouraged to switch to diesel and more polluting fuels because they emit less CO2.
In Britain, 29,000 people die a year from unburned carbon and construction dust, and 23,500 more as a result of nitrogen dioxide.' Photograph: Bazza/Alamy

In Britain, 29,000 people die a year from breathing in particles of unburned carbon and construction dust, and an estimated 23,500 more as a result of nitrogen dioxide. To condone these deaths is unforgivable; to actively seek to carry on polluting is like declaring war on the public. It’s saying, “We know that the whole of Christchurch or half the city of Worcester will be asphyxiated next year, but there is nothing we think we should do about it.”
But those 50,000 or more deaths a year are just the tip of the iceberg, hiding hospital wards full of people with heart disease, cancers and respiratory and lung problems caused by lifetimes spent breathing toxic air. No one counts the heartbreak when parents die young, or when children are unable to breathe properly or when Granny develops dementia – which is now linked to air pollution too.
Nor does government want us to tell us how much air pollution really costs. This is reckoned by the European environment agency to be over £10bn a year in damage to people’s health, buildings, soil and water. That is dozens of new hospitals and schools, thousands of extra nurses and teachers, and enough left over to protect most of Britain’s premier conservation sites.
After 20 years of battling to get government to take the climate seriously, we must wake up to the fact that the very air we breathe is killing us and making us bankrupt, yet governments are deliberately making the situation worse. Despite the Volkswagen scandal – the German car giant admitted that it cheated emissions tests in the US – new pollution limits for diesel cars have been delayed until 2019.
On the drawing board in Britain are a new runway and hundreds of thousands more planes every year in the southeast, a massive national road-building programme, several new road crossings for east London taking air pollution into the heart of some of the poorest areas, the £50bn HS2 rail line, fracking, giant infrastructure projects from nuclear power stations and new ports. All will add to air pollution and to climate emissions.
The government has developed tunnel vision. Because it sees environmental problems as many separate issues, it does not understand the links between them and the benefits of addressing them together. Yet the science shows that if air pollution is addressed, there will be a significant decrease in climate emissions. Restoring peat bogs and investing in conservation will not only improve biodiversity, reduce flooding and make for a healthier environment, it will also reduce greenhouse gases.
We have been distracted by climate change and have let governments dictate the agenda. Now we must return to basics, and address all those issues that have been conveniently dropped. Who will get angry about the degradation of water quality, the plague of plastic in our seas? Mining? What about computer and smart phone waste? Litter? Population control? Endangered species? Unless we address mass consumption – the root of our environmental crisis – climate change will not only worsen, we will be left with a degraded world.
Rather than solely trying to tackle the vast problem of climate change, we must address all the many factors which make it worse. It’s a case of looking after the green pennies and letting the green pounds take care of themselves.

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Climate Change: Kiribati Turns To Artificial Islands To Save Nation From Atlantis Fate

International Business Times -

Kiribati slowly being engulfed by rising sea levels Reuters

Kiribati is hoping to build artificial islands in a bid of saving the low-lying nation from rising sea levels that look set to turn it into a modern-day Atlantis. President Anote Tong said they are seeking help from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) engineers to work out how they could feasibly create artificial islands to protect the country from future climate change.
Kiribati has been on the forefront of climate-change discussions for a number of years. Comprised of 33 atolls and reef islands, much of the nation sits just above sea level. It is one of the lowest-lying nations on the planet and climate scientists have identified it as being one of the most at risk from global warming.
It is located roughly in the Pacific Ocean halfway between Hawaii and Australia and has a population of just over 100,000. In 2013, Tong said climate change-induced sea-level rise was inevitable and that islanders would have to migrate to survive. He later said most of the island would be underwater before the end of the 21st century.
Anote Tong, President of Kiribati Reuters

The idea of the island being slowly sunken led to the first-ever person to claim refugee status as a result of climate change. Ioane Teitiota tried to win refuge in New Zealand because it was becoming too dangerous to live on his home island. According to a case transcript, he told courts: "There's no future for us when we go back to Kiribati, especially for my children. There's nothing for us there."
His case was rejected, however, with the judge saying the claim was "fundamentally misconceived". In the ruling, the judge said that while the court had sympathy with the people of Kiribati, the application could not be accepted.
"Traditionally a refugee is fleeing his own government or a non-state actor from whom the government is unwilling or unable to protect him. Thus the claimant is seeking refuge within the very countries that are allegedly 'persecuting' him." However, it conceded climate change will become an ever-important issue in regards to refugees in the future and must be addressed before lands become inhabitable.
Reuters

In a bid to prevent the country from having to be abandoned, Tong said authorities are looking at artificial islands like the Palm Jumeirah in Dubai as one solution to the problem Kiribati is facing. According to ABC's Pacific Beat, he said: "We really have to look at adaptation strategies beyond mitigation, and we will have to build islands. We recently received a technical team from UAE headed by Dutch engineers with the sole objective of providing Kiribati with technical and credible solutions to our predicament.
"Indeed there is a light at the end of the tunnel. What might have been viewed as something unachievable and impossible may now become the solution not only for Kiribati but all other low-lying atoll islands."
Artificial islands come at a cost, however. Palm Jumeirah cost the UAE $12bn (£8.4bn) and Tong estimates raising Kiribati could cost up to $100m – money that would need to come, at least in part, from international support.
Palm Jumeirah Richard Schneider/CC

Palm Jumeirah alone cost the Emirati government an estimated $US120bn, and Tong estimated raising Kiribati could cost as much as $US100m. Furthermore this would not necessarily be a long-term solution, as sea levels continue to rise. The IPCC projects under a worst-case scenario, sea levels will rise by up to around a metre, however this has been dubbed a conservative estimate by some scientists.
Regardless, the idea of artificial islands as a way to save Kiribati appears to be the best – if only – option at present. A study published in Ocean Engineering last year said an artificial islands is a "feasible solution" if significant international support was provided.
"Transition to an artificial island is a feasible option with significant international support, and would enable survival for the population of South Tarawa with minimum disruption to their current lifestyle," researchers wrote. "Its construction and population would require a large leap of faith by both the financiers and the inhabitants, but it has the potential to provide a range of economic, social and environmental benefits both for the population and for the country."
A proposal for artificial islands to save Kiribati Shimizu Corp

A number of proposals have been put forward, including one by Shimizu Corp, a Tokyo-based construction company, which devised a concept to create a city that floats on lily-pads. "The idea behind the Green Float project was first as a solution to the problem of a rapidly growing human population or as a city that would be immune to earthquakes and tsunami," Masayuki Takeuchi, head of the scheme, told The Telegraph. "But we quickly realised that it could save islands from rising sea levels. We are still at the planning stage, of course, but we believe this is a feasible project."
Nothing has been formally agreed, but Tong said he is planning on Kiribati remaining above water: "If we are really serious about ensuring a secure and safe future for our people, giving up has never been an option," he said.

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20/02/2016

This Map Shows Where In The World Is Most Vulnerable To Climate Change

ScienceAlert - David Nield

Where does you neighbourhood fall on the scale?


A map showing which areas of the globe are likely to see the most dramatic effects of climate change has been produced by an international team of scientists using a new metric called the Vegetation Sensitivity Index.
Based on satellite imagery data collected between 2000 and 2013, the index measures three different factors: air temperature, water availability, and degree of cloud cover. By charting how these variables are changing over time, together with the level of vegetation ground cover during the same period, the researchers have been able to identify the regions that are most sensitive to an evolving climate.
"Our study provides a quantitative methodology for assessing the relative response rate of ecosystems – either natural ones or those with a strong anthropogenic footprint, to climate variability," says first author Alistair Seddon from the University of Bergen in Norway.
"This kind of information can be really useful for national-scale ecosystem assessments... Even more interesting is that as satellite measurements continue and so as the datasets get longer, we will be able to recalculate our metric over longer time periods."
The whole Earth was mapped in a grid of 3.2-square-km (2-square-mile) blocks, with each one marked from most to least sensitive. Some areas, such as the Sahara or Antarctica, were labelled as completely barren or ice-covered.
Areas shown in green on the map have a lower sensitivity to climate change – that means they're better able to adapt to variations in temperature, water availability and cloud cover.
The areas marked in red, on the other hand, are highly sensitive to climate change and have been hit hard by evolving weather patterns. The northern half of South America and the Scandinavian region of Europe are among those showing most red, for example.
Mountainous regions and rainforests – both finely balanced ecosystems – are particularly susceptible to climate change, report the scientists. "Identification of large-scale metrics to quantify ecological responses to climate change remains a vital strategy for global ecosystem assessment," concludes the paper. "The next challenge is to understand the underlying causes and ecological processes that lead to these patterns."
The researchers will continue to develop the map in the future, getting a better idea of the long-term effects of climate change on different parts of the world.
The study has been published in Nature.

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Lethal Heating is a citizens' initiative