Why Climate Change Is An Education Issue

The Japan Times - Felipe Calderon*



NEW YORK – Climate change affects us all, but we still are not acting as quickly as we should to address its causes, mitigate the damage and adapt to its effects. Many people don't understand the risks climate change poses to global economic and social structures. And, sadly, many who do understand are dismissive of the far-reaching benefits a global shift to sustainability and clean energy would bring about.
According to a recent Pew study, seven out of 10 Americans classified as political independents were not very concerned that climate change would hurt them. Worse still, Yale University researchers recently found that 40 percent of adults worldwide have never even heard of climate change. In some developing countries, such as India, that figure climbs to 65 percent.
These figures are discouraging, but they can be improved. The Yale study concluded that "educational attainment tends to be the single strongest predictor of public awareness of climate change." By investing in quality education, we can set the next generation on the right path to addressing this global problem.
Education and climate action work together in three ways. For starters, education fills knowledge gaps. Understanding how climate change is already having an impact on one's life can have practical benefits. This is especially true for poor populations that are most vulnerable to crop failures and natural disasters, such as landslides and floods, caused by climate change. Populations that must rebuild from scratch after each new catastrophe miss out on opportunities for rapid development. By understanding that their world is changing — and that the likelihood of future disasters is increasing — these populations can build resilience and learn to adapt to the sudden and slow stresses of a changing climate.
Second, education challenges apathy. Knowing the measures available to address climate change can open up vast opportunities for economic growth. Global investors should be made to understand that sustainable solutions can increase wellbeing and create additional economic opportunities. To take one example, in Niger, education and improved farming techniques helped double real farm incomes for more than one million people, while restoring huge tracts of severely degraded land. In the United States, as of 2014, there were more jobs that depended on solar energy than on coal mining.
Still, many people insist that implementing measures to mitigate the effects of climate change is too costly to our current way of life. According to the Pew study, almost seven out of 10 people believe that, given the limitations of technology, they would have to make major lifestyle changes. This does not have to be the case, and education can challenge the kind of skepticism that forecloses opportunities for climate-smart living.
Finally, education furnishes the technical knowledge needed to build a better future through innovation — one that includes clean and safe energy, sustainable agriculture and smarter cities. Broadening access to education would lead to more homegrown innovation — entrepreneurs spotting opportunities to address local problems. Globally, we cannot rely on knowledge centers such as Silicon Valley or Oxford to develop a silver bullet to the climate problem. Solutions may come from tech hubs, but they will also come from villages and developing cities, from farmers and manufactures with vastly different perspectives on the world around them. And this will create a virtuous cycle. It is easier for educated people to migrate and integrate into new societies, sharing the knowledge they've brought with them.
Fortunately, younger generations today are better educated and more committed to reducing their own carbon footprint than previous generations were. They are leading the way and forcing us all to reconsider our own actions. But we must broaden the availability of education worldwide to ensure that their efforts are not in vain.
In recognition of education's importance, the government of Norway, under the visionary leadership of Prime Minister Erna Solberg, has established the International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity, of which I am a member. We will meet this week in Oslo, and it's my hope that we will confront the challenges of our time and act on the knowledge that education is our best problem-solving asset.
Addressing the dangers of climate change is not only an existential imperative; it is also an opportunity to move toward a cleaner, more productive and fairer path of development. Only an educated global society can take the decisive action needed to get us there.

*Felipe Calderon, former president of Mexico, is chair of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate.

Links

• Climate change implicated in France floods
• Warmer waters due to climate change are altering South Asian monsoons and East Asian rains, study finds
• 'Cause for alarm' as May temperatures break global records in Earth's hottest spring yet: NASA
• Scientists blame El Nino, man-made warming for turning vibrant U.S. marine reserve into coral graveyard

'Climate-Aligned' Investments Tipped To Soar But Australia's Role Remains Hazy

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Sunrise or sunset?: Green investments face an uncertain future in Australia. Photo: Bloomberg

Political uncertainty after the weekend's indecisive federal elections could further hinder Australia's development of business tools needed to tackle climate change, leaving it lagging further behind other nations, analysts say.
Investors are stepping up funding for so-called "climate-aligned" or green bonds, with the tally rising 16 per cent compared with 2015 to $US694 billion ($924 billion), according to the fifth annual report, Bonds and Climate Change: The State of the Market in 2016 compiled by HSBC.
The tally, which counts bonds explicitly labelled green or those whose main target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or build resilience to climate impacts, must multiply if economies are to finance their decarbonisation in time to avoid dangerous warming.
"Some $US2.5-3 trillion of capital is needed each year in climate change-related investments, with 60-70 per cent of that going to emerging markets," the report said, adding an "adequate" level of such bond issuance should be in the order of $US1 trillion a year by 2020.
The report noted Australian issuance of unlabelled climate-aligned bonds is still small – in the order of $2.5 billion – and dominated by rail operator Aurizon.
"With finalisation of the historic Paris Agreement in late 2015, more investors are realising the need to align their portfolios to the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees,"  said Emma Herd, chief executive of the  Investor Group on Climate Change.
Three of the big four banks will join the Australian launch of the bonds report in Sydney on Monday, with Treasury Corporation Victoria and Flexigroup joining the discussion on climate finance.
However, analysis by climate finance campaign group Market Forces has found lending by the big four to renewable energy projects has dropped so far this year – and fallen short of their declared intensions.
In the first half of 2016, ANZ and Commonwealth Bank made no new loans to the sector, while NAB lent $88 million and Westpac $73 million. The half-year total of about $162 million compared with $516 million a year earlier, Market Forces said, citing public details of the deals.
The CBA lagged the other three, lending $904 million to the renewables sector since 2008 out of a total of $6.014 billion by the big four.
"While renewable energy is a boom industry globally, here in Australia the sector has been starved of the support and certainty it has needed for far too long," Julian Vincent, Market Forces' executive director, said.
"But at the same time, if the banks are seriously behind the goal of cleaning up our energy sector, they can't credibly hide behind policy."
John Connor, chair of The Climate Institute, called on the Turnbull government if it retains office to bring forward its planned 2017 review of climate policies to bolster investor confidence in the sector.
Mr Connor noted the UK government, even amid the chaos of the Brexit vote on Britain leaving the European Union, last week agreed to adopt a goal of cutting 1990-level carbon emissions 57 per cent by 2030.
Much work needs to be done.
A paper published in Nature last week, including by some Australian-based researchers,  found that national emissions targets as pledged in Paris would fall far short of the sub-2 degree warming goal. Instead, they imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees by 2100 compared with pre-industrial levels.

Links

• Investors in world's top coal shipper Glencore pass climate-change motion
• Climate change slams global economy, study from Stanford and Berkeley shows
• Climate change response must include slower population growth
• Apple, Google, Microsoft among companies with biggest climate change credentials
• 'We need a miracle': Bill Gates Q&A on climate change
• Disaster resilience key to managing climate change, say insurers
• Climate change a 'huge' financial risk, warns Bank of England

This New Antarctica Study Is Bad News For Climate Change Doubters

Washington Post - Chris Mooney


On Sept. 19, 2014, the five-day average of Antarctic sea ice extent exceeded 20 million square kilometers for the first time since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The red line shows the average maximum extent from 1979 to 2014. (NASA’s Scientific Visualization Studio/Cindy Starr)

For a number of years now, climate change skeptics have argued that there’s a key part of the Earth’s climate system that upends our expectations about global warming, and that is showing trends that actually cut in the opposite direction.
This supposed contrary indicator is the sea ice that rings the Antarctic continent, and that reached a new all-time record extent of  7.78 million square miles in September 2014 (see above). As that record suggests, this vast field of ice has been expanding in recent years, rather than shrinking. That means it’s doing the opposite of what is happening in the Arctic, where sea ice is declining rapidly — and also that it’s doing the opposite of what we might expect in a warming world.
Scientists don’t fully understand why Antarctic sea ice is growing — suggested explanations have posited more glacial melt dumping cold fresh water into the surrounding seas, or the way the Antarctic ozone hole has changed the circulation of winds around the continent. In a new study in Nature Geoscience, though, researchers with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., along with colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle and Australia, suggest that the phenomenon is simply the result of natural variability of the climate system — driven, in this case, by changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean that reverberate globally.
“When you get changes in [sea surface temperatures] in some areas of the tropics, you affect precipitation, that affects the amount of energy released in the atmosphere,” said Gerald Meehl, the study’s lead author and a climate scientist with NCAR. “That starts affecting, through this kind of chain reaction process, circulation at great distances away.”
The new study confirms that the ice floating around Antarctica has been expanding — indeed, the expansion has accelerated since around the turn of the century. But that’s also around the time that a cycle dubbed the “Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,” or IPO, shifted into a negative phase, which is characterized by ocean surface cooling in the tropical Pacific, and particularly its eastern part around the equator.
This is the same phenomenon that, scientists such as Meehl believe, helped fuel a global warming “slowdown” or “hiatus” during the 2000s (see also here). Heat was in effect buried deep below the surface of the Pacific Ocean, rather than bursting forth and influencing the globe, during this period.
But what’s new in the latest study is the suggestion that this negative IPO phase had consequences that stretched all the way to the Southern Ocean waters surrounding Antarctica — and that this, in turn, explains why most climate models didn’t predict the observed growth of Antarctic sea ice.
Most of the state-of-the-art climate change model simulations run to help support the 2013 report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change did not capture the growth of Antarctic sea ice that has occurred of late. Rather, the average of these models suggested that this ice should decline. This shows that skeptics who have cited the growing ice are raising a serious concern — this anomaly really does cry out for an explanation.
But the new study finds that in the small minority of climate change simulations that do happen to correctly capture these natural changes in the Pacific, and the global warming “slowdown” to boot, there is also growth in Antarctic sea ice. These are the models, it appears, that happened to get the role of natural variability in the Pacific right — or more specifically, to get the timing right for a phase shift in this ocean.
Out of “262 realizations of 2oth century climate, 10 of those got this observed slowdown of global warming happening at about the same time as in the observations, at the same magnitude,” Meehl said. “And for those 10, there was the negative phase of the IPO, and it also has the signature of Antarctic sea ice.”
But how could a naturally occurring climate wobble in the tropical Pacific Ocean translate into more Antarctic sea ice?
Here, the research suggests the key factor is how the state of that ocean in turn influences an Antarctic atmospheric phenomenon called the Amundsen Sea Low, a low-pressure region off the Antarctic coast that lies more or less directly south of the tropical Pacific.
This low-pressure region deepens (or sees its pressure drop even further) in negative IPO conditions, the study finds, which drive cooler seas in the eastern tropical Pacific. As this shift reverberates across the globe, it in turn means that down in Antarctica, winds increase in force around the area of low pressure at the center of the Amundsen Sea Low (winds blow inward toward regions of lower pressure). These stronger winds, in turn, push sea ice outward and away from the Antarctic continent, which leaves room for more ice to form in the gaps that are created — and increases the extent of sea ice overall.
“The dramatic decrease in Arctic sea ice, which currently exceeds model predictions and could exhibit a record or near-record low this year, is fairly straightforward to understand in terms of the unprecedented warming in the Arctic,” Michael Mann, a climate researcher at Penn State University, said in an email in response to Meehl’s study.
“By contrast, Antarctic sea ice is more complicated. It is dominated by what we refer to as ‘dynamical effects,’ especially the strength and position of the westerly winds over the southern ocean. Those dynamical effects are governed to a large extent by natural, internal climate variability, and it is unsurprising that the very modest increase in Antarctic sea ice in recent decades can be explained in terms of them.”

Granted, the precise causes behind the recent growth in Antarctic sea ice probably will be debated for some time. After all, there is much that scientists still don’t understand about this enormous but exceedingly remote region. Recent research continues to make new discoveries about why ice floating atop the southern ocean behaves in the way it does, for instance, and even about how it helps drive the circulation of ocean waters in the region, and therefore, around the world.
As for the future, Meehl says he thinks that the IPO has now turned back, and doesn’t think Antarctic sea ice will keep expanding in the same way. Notably, the ice did not continue its streak of breaking records in 2015. “Averaged over the next 5 to 10 years, if this is all correct, this increase in Antarctic sea ice extent would stop growing, maybe start shrinking a little bit,” he said.
For now, though, the new research suggests that two phenomena that have furnished some of the most popular arguments among climate change skeptics and doubters in the past several years — growing Antarctic sea ice, and a global warming slowdown or “hiatus” during the 2000s — can perhaps both be chalked up to simple natural climate variability, superimposed on top of a global warming trend.
And if that’s right, it means that despite heated debate over both of these matters, neither manages to dent — at all — the main message about ongoing global warming.

Links

• Climate change skeptics may be about to lose one of their favorite arguments
• The Antarctic ozone hole has finally started to ‘heal,’ scientists report
• Antarctica’s penguins could be decimated by climate change
• Study: climate change warming Asian waters, altering monsoon
• The world has the right climate goals — but the wrong ambition levels to achieve them

Solar Energy to Power India of the Future

World Bank

Summary India’s plan to ramp up solar power generation to 100 GW by 2022 is among the largest in the world. It will help bring sustainable, clean, climate-friendly electricity to millions of India’s people. The World Bank Group (WBG) is helping India deliver on its plans with more than $1 billion in lending over FY 2017. This is the Bank’s largest-ever support for solar power in any country. The WBG is also backing the India-led International Solar Alliance which aims to promote solar use globally by mobilizing $1 trillion in investments by 2030.

The World Bank Group is moving to help India deliver on its unprecedented plans to scale up solar energy, from installing solar panels on rooftops to setting up massive solar parks.
This will catapult India to the forefront of the global effort to bring electricity to all, mitigate the effects of climate change, and set the country on a path to become the 'India of the future'.
"The world must turn to (the) sun to power our future," India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at the historic COP21 climate conference in Paris last year. "As the developing world lifts billions of people into prosperity, our hope for a sustainable planet rests on a bold, global initiative."
Unveiling its own bold initiative, India pledged that it would derive at least 40% of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2030.
This includes plans for the development of 100 GW of solar energy by 2022, an extremely ambitious target considering the world's installed solar power capacity in 2014 was 181 GW.
Supporting India's solar push is a key part of WBG President Jim Yong Kim's agenda as he visits the country this week. Over FY 2017, the World Bank hopes to provide more than $1 billion to support India's solar plans.
"India's plans to virtually triple the share of renewable energy by 2030 will both transform the country's energy supply and have far-reaching global implications in the fight against climate change," said Kim.
"Prime Minister Modi's personal commitment toward renewable energy, particularly solar, is the driving force behind these investments.
The World Bank Group will do all it can to help India meet its ambitious targets, especially around scaling up solar energy."

"The world must turn to (the) sun to power our future. As the developing world lifts billions of people into prosperity, our hope for a sustainable planet rests on a bold, global initiative."
Narendra Modi
Prime Minister of India

The World Bank has already approved a $625 million loan that will support the Government of India's Grid Connected Rooftop Solar program by financing the installation of solar panels on rooftops across India.
The project draws funds together from the Bank, as well as from the Clean Technology Fund of the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), and will mobilize additional funding from public and private investors.
The International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank Group's private sector arm, is supporting the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh set up the 750-MW ultra-mega solar power project in Rewa. This will be the largest single-site solar power project in the world.
IFC will help structure and implement the transaction to help attract investments of about $750 million.  IFC was one of the earliest financiers of wind and solar power in India, and helped develop the country's first grid-connected solar power project.
While in India, Kim is also extending support for the International Solar Alliance (ISA).
The alliance, spearheaded by India and France at COP21, brings together 121 countries and aims to mobilize a trillion dollars in investments to increase the use of solar energy. By signing an agreement with the ISA in New Delhi, the WBG paves the way for it to partner with the alliance's member countries to help them deliver on their individual objectives.
In India, the WBG has a number of initiatives in the pipeline.
These include developing solar parks, promoting innovative solutions to generate and store solar power, and providing support for solar mini-grids.
The Bank's backing will help increase the availability of private financing, introduce new technologies, build capacity for solar rooftop units, and enable the development of common infrastructure to support privately developed solar parks across India.
India is already planning to develop one of the largest solar parks in the world.
The 2 GW park in the southern state of Karnataka is expected to generate enough electricity to power nearly 1 million households. The park's supply of clean, renewable solar energy will help reduce CO₂ emissions by 20 million tons a year, and save 3.6 million tons of natural gas which is used to generate electricity.
The success of the solar auction for the park highlights the potential for more such large scale renewable projects in the country.
Generating clean renewable electricity is crucial for India where nearly 300 million people—about a quarter of its population—live without access to electricity.
Today, India is one of the lowest per capita consumers of electricity in the world; even when people are connected to the electricity grid, they face frequent disruptions.
Add to that the projected economic growth and the increase in population, and the demand for energy in India is expected to double by 2040.
"With around 300 days of sunshine every year, India has among the best conditions in the world to harness solar energy.
The rapid expansion of solar power can improve the quality of life for millions of Indians, especially for its poorest citizens. It can also create thousands of jobs in the solar industry and underpin progress in all areas of development, helping the country fulfil its dream of becoming the 'India of the future'," said Onno Ruhl, World Bank Country Director in India.
Solar Powers Brighter, Greener Future for India

Links

• Press Release: World Bank, India Sign Deal to Boost Solar Globally
• Climate Investment Funds (CIF)
• Carbon Finance for Sustainable Development: 2015 Annual Report
• Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty
• State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015

Global Coral Bleaching Continues For a Record Third Year

Climate Central - Brian Kahn

Bad coral reef news seems to be never-ending these days. Case in point: on Monday, scientists announced that the world is in for an unprecedented third year of coral bleaching across the globe. The announcement comes courtesy of NOAA Coral Reef Watch, which keeps an eye on a number of climate factors that can stress reefs out. That includes rising ocean temperatures, which have absolutely pummeled reefs in recent years and will only ratchet up the pressure as the globe continues to warm.

A dying giant clam in the Great Barrier Reef following severe bleaching in winter 2016. Credit: XL Catlin Seaview Survey

"This is the most widespread, longest coral bleaching event ever to occur globally," Mark Eakin, the director of NOAA Coral Reef Watch, said. Over the past two years, reefs have been essentially boiled to death in parts of every ocean basin on earth. Abnormally hot waters have turned vibrant coral communities into pale white ghost towns as heat has sapped coral of the algae they need to survive. That includes a tragedy unfolding in the Great Barrier Reef, which could be permanently reshaped by rising ocean temperatures.
It kicked off in 2014, when El Niño was still bubbling, and it's still going strong in the middle of 2016 despite El Niño's demise. Bleaching alerts are in place through fall despite increasing odds of La Niña, a Pacific Ocean phenomenon which tends to cool the planet a bit as a whole.There are only two other global coral bleaching events to precede this one: 1998 and 2010. Both came during El Niño years. This event is a different creature, though. Not all parts of the ocean are cooler than normal during La Niña, however. In particular, NOAA Coral Reef Watch sounded the alarm for Palau and the Federate State of Micronesia, which sit on the edge of the horseshoe of warm water that typically forms during La Niña in the western tropical Pacific.
Both are small island nations where reefs play a vital role in tourism and storm surge protection. Other areas such as the Caribbean are still dealing with the added heat of El Niño propagating through the ocean and can expect bleaching risks to remain this summer and fall.

Coral bleaching forecast through September 2016. Credit: NOAA Coral Reef Watch

That risks extends to many reefs in the U.S. including the Florida Keys, U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Other U.S. reefs are also at risk through the fall including those near Hawaii, Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Overall, U.S. reefs have been disproportionately affected by bleaching by dint of their wide geographical reach.
"More than 70 percent of U.S. reefs have already been hit," Eakin said, noting that in comparison, 40 percent of reefs have been affected globally.
In some areas such as Florida, the bleaching event has lasted so long that reefs have been beset by bleaching twice and could be in for their third go-round this summer and fall.
The U.S. is far from the only place to suffer, though. The Great Barrier Reef has also been hit hard with up to 93 percent of the reef showing signs of bleaching. The damage was so extensive, it brought scientists to tears. Research released in April showed that global warming made the bleaching there up to 175 times more likely.

Scientists surveying coral bleaching in the Maldives in May 2016. Credit: XL Catlin Seaview Survey

Other parts of the ocean have been equally devastated, including some of the most pristine reefs on the planet that sit in the middle of the Pacific. The death of El Niño has helped cool waters in that region a bit, but warming in other parts of the ocean mean a new set of reefs are in the crosshairs.
Scientists have pointed to global warming as a major driver. Roughly 93 percent of the heat the planet has been absorbing due to excess carbon pollution is ending up in the oceans. That's causing changes to ecosystems across the high seas, but none are quite as dramatic as what's happening at coral reefs.
"If you think of them as a (climate change) bellwether, they're ringing the bells like crazy right now," Jennifer Koss, NOAA's Coral Reef Conservation Program director, said. "We can't afford to not listen to them."
As to whether this round of bleaching goes from being a singular event to a new normal, Eakin said, "ask me next year if this doesn't end."

Links 

• There's a Hopeful Message Hidden in These Dead Reefs
• Fishing For Bright Spots in a World of Sick Reefs
• Climate Change is 'Devastating' The Great Barrier Reef
• Scientists Urge Obama to Halt Oil Leasing in the Arctic
• With May Record, Global Temps in 'New Neighborhood'
• Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM For First Time in 4 Million Years

Coalition Will Need To Choose Between The Centre Or Extreme On Climate

Climate Institute - John Connor*



Australia's election results could actually support considered climate action, particularly when viewed in the context of community and mainstream business support. But that will require assistance and leadership.
Polling shows support for climate action is at its highest since 2008.
A very persuasive 66 per cent of Australians want our country to be a world leader in finding solutions to climate change.
At the same time, an overwhelming majority, including over two thirds of Coalition supporters, think tackling climate change will create economic opportunities, such as new jobs and investment.
Mainstream business has been urging the integration of climate and energy policies, recognising the need for net zero emissions and highlighting the costs of piecemeal action.
With the major party numbers tight it is important to note that four out of five of the lower house crossbenchers support credible climate action.
Only Bob Katter is ambivalent. Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie supported the previous carbon pricing mechanism and have strong and/or inclusive policies. Nick Xenophon's team backed strong 2030 targets and look likely to gain three Senate seats.
And it appears at least eight Green Senators will be returned.
As a matter of fact The Coalition, Labor, Greens and Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) now all support emissions trading and renewable energy, albeit to varying degrees. Labor had stronger policies but both they and the Coalition share support for the Paris climate agreement's goals of keeping global warming well below 2°C and the pursuit of limiting it to 1.5°C.
There is a centre that can support credible climate action and there are extremes with Hanson and others that won't.
Only the centre offers chances of political, investor and community stability.
If the Coalition manages to retain government, it will need to choose between the extremes and the centre on climate change and on other issues.
It will also need to choose between scare campaigns and substance.
It was a bittersweet irony at best to hear the Coalition complain about scare campaigns given its colourful past of wrecking balls, cobra squeezes and distortions regarding the impacts of the carbon pricing mechanism.
It continued this election with claims of a 78 per cent electricity price hike from Labor's policies which were an extreme misrepresentation which got no traction.
A move beyond scare campaigns would be welcome but will need mediation from independent institutions and/or assistance from civil society and business partnerships such as the Australian Climate Roundtable of business, investor, welfare, union and environment groups.
Though it has committed to a review of climate policies in 2017, and consideration of a long term emissions reduction target, the Coalition may benefit from bringing that process forward.
It would certainly be supported by regular independent processes such as that offered by the Climate Change Authority - which has survived despite continued Coalition opposition.
Oddly, after a week of Brexit chaos, our country can learn from a UK decision welcomed across the political spectrum, by mainstream industry, by investors and by environmental activists.
On Thursday, the Conservative UK government accepted the advice of the independent Committee on Climate Change, responding to its regular carbon budget driven review process, and adopted an ambitious 2030 emissions reduction target.
Perhaps surprisingly, climate action in UK and in Australia could be a lifebuoy of stability amongst turbulent political waters. But it will require a clear choice.
A choice for inclusive processes, independent institutions and considered deliberation.
Not a choice for extremism, scare campaigns or deliberate distortions.

*John Connor is CEO of The Climate Institute. Whilst qualified as a lawyer, John has spent over twenty years working in a variety of policy and advocacy roles with organisations including World Vision, Make Poverty History, the Australian Conservation Foundation and the NSW Nature Conservation Council. 

Links

• Clarifying the impacts of Brexit on the Paris Agreement and Australia's climate policy
• Election Research: Mind the political gap – voters, business frustrated by inaction on climate change and energy
• Extreme weather: Managing climate risk to property is the joint responsibility of many stakeholders

'Sleeper Issue' Of Leaking Coal Seam Gas Fields May Blow Hole In Emissions Goals

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Gas has long been touted as cleaner than coal and marketed as a "transition" fuel until the mass take-up of renewable energy becomes viable.
But a growing chorus of voices from Australia and overseas is warning that any perceived benefits could easily be lost with just small leakages.
Professor Peter Rayner from the University of Melbourne says it takes just 1-2 per cent of gas leakage for any advantage to be lost.

Queensland's coal seam gas industry now has more than 7000 wells. Photo: Saah Moles, Wilderness Society

Australia's coal seam gas industry claims its leakage is just 0.02 per cent but increased detection of leaks in the US – triggering a flurry of studies – suggest some big changes are in the winds.
US regulators this year lifted their estimate of America's annual emissions of methane – the potent gas that makes up most of natural gas – by 13 per cent with leakage from the oil and gas industry largely blamed.
While methane clouds have been detected near gasfields, it took a huge leak starting last October from a gas storage site near Los Angeles to grab media attention.

CSG has its protesters now – before fugitive emissions are known. Photo: Andrew Quilty

Thousands were forced to evacuate their homes, with the leak venting almost 100,000 tonnes of methane over 16 weeks. Methane has as much as 100 times the warming impact of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period and the release was akin to adding 500,000 cars to the roads during the event, local media reported.
While Australia's gas boom, particularly for coal seam gas, is of a much smaller scale than the US shale bonanza, many of the issues are identical. These include the lack of baseline studies to distinguish the impacts of drilling and fracking of wells from natural methane seepage.

Closer to the surface

The industry says just 0.02 per cent of the gas developed vents as methane to the atmosphere. Photo: Glenn Hunt

The uncertainties around CSG in particular "are really very large", Professor Rayner said.
"It's closer to the surface [than conventional gas] ... it's more dispersed, and the chances for something to go wrong are much higher," he said.
CSG operators such as Santos, Origin Energy and BG Group, say they have every incentive to limit leakage of the lucrative commodity from their lattice of CSG wells and pipelines.

LNG exports were worth $16.9 billion in 2014-15, APPEA says. Photo: Stephanie Kelly

According to Santos' environmental impact statement (EIS) for its $25 billion Gladstone LNG project, fugitive emissions would only be 0.1 per cent for the CSG gasfields themselves. Total emissions were just 20,000 tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent last year across its entire business.
"Santos meets all its regulatory requirements around emissions," a spokesman said. "We monitor, independently audit and make this data publically available in our annual Sustainability Report."
But a spokesman for Queensland's Department of Environment and Heritage Protection conceded that Santos's EIS "does not include provisions for a formal auditing process". However, the proponent is required "to document its proposed operations and how these will impact on the environment, which the department uses to "to inform the relevant permit conditions and requirements".

Chinchilla community members said the Condamine River has never bubbled with such frequency before CGS mining came to the region. Photo: Max Phillips

Even without unanticipated leakage, the surge in CNG and its processing for export markets is set to play a big role in a forecast jump Queensland's greenhouse gas emissions. The government estimates that the state's emissions will surge 35 per cent between 2014 and 2030 even as Australia is aiming to cut them.

Migratory emissions
Researchers, though, say little is understood about how drilling and fracking may create conditions for leakage through the soil long after a well has been decommissioned.
With more than 7000 CSG wells in Australia and headed towards tens of thousands, "the long-term, post-production fugitive [emissions] are certainly a sleeper issue," Professor Rayner said.
Dimitri Lafleur, a former geoscientist at energy giant Shell, said the industry has little idea of how much "migratory emissions" are making it to the surface.
"With such a vast network and thousands of wells, it is very difficult to come up with an accurate number if you don't monitor on a regular basis," said Mr Lafleur, a PhD student at Melbourne University under Professor Rayner.
"And given it is not a requirement to minimise fugitive emissions, why would you?"
Mr Lafleur is part of a team commissioned by The Australia Institute to examine how big a problem such leakage is and how it might affect Australia's national emissions targets given the industry's rapid expansion.
"No one knows what the baseline emissions are – from natural emissions from seeps, bores, for example – but I believe there is a chance that these emissions will become larger, with continued water extraction," he said. Companies remove huge amounts of water to get to the gas, depressurising the aquifers in the process.

'Social licence issue'
Political opposition to CSG has come mostly from the Greens. Labor and the Coalition generally back developments in Queensland, but have mixed views of the sector in other states such as Victoria and NSW.
NSW Greens MP Jeremy Buckingham became an internet sensation when he set the Condamine River in Queensland alight in April. Deputy Greens leader Larissa Waters, along with independent senator Gleenn Lazaus, has helped lead senate inquiries into CSG.
"Coal seam gas and fracking wells and pipes leak like a sieve, and they could be just as bad for the climate as burning coal," Greens Senator Larissa Waters said.
"As disused gas wells age and concrete casings break down, we risk further leaks for decades to come," she said. "No studies have systematically examined the deteriorations of old wells."
Fairfax Media sought comment from Environment Minister Greg Hunt and his Labor counterpart, Mark Butler.
Gas produces as much as 77 per cent more energy per molecule of CO2 than coal.
Professor Rayner said emissions issues with CSG had the potential to diminish public support for an industry already dogged with problems such as salt disposal, access to farmers' lands and interference with ground water.
If CSG is not cleaner than coal, "the whole social licence issue is brought into question," Professor Rayner said. "It becomes quite serious."

'Rivers shouldn't do that'
Locals say the bubbling of the Condamine River, which was highlighted when Greens MP Jeremy Buckingham set fire to it on Friday, is caused by a nearby CSG operation.

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