Taxpayers could be slugged for $12b-$25b if the Emissions Reduction Fund remains the Government's principal policy tool for reaching its inadequate 2030 target of 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. Removing policy options from the 2017 review is a costly mistake.
According to government data out today, Australia’s emissions have
increased by over four million tonnes in the year to June 2016 and are
projected to keep rising to 2030. Without stronger energy and climate
policies, government’s own inadequate 2030 target will be blown by
around a billion tonnes, said The Climate Institute.
“With the government ruling out a policy option that would make
companies take responsibility for their own emissions, this billion
tonne gap could see taxpayers slugged for $12 to 55 billion if the
Emissions Reduction Fund remains the government’s principal policy
tool,” said the CEO of The Climate Institute, John Connor.
“These results are a national embarrassment, so it’s not surprising that
the government has released this data as close as possible to
Christmas. Despite having committed through the Paris Agreement to
reduce our emissions to net zero, our emissions are still going up, not
down – and it is because we don’t have effective policies to reduce
them.”
“Though the government has committed to reducing emissions by 26-28 per
cent below 2005 levels by 2030, the projections show Australia is
currently on track to blow that target by about 1 billion tonnes. If we
were serious about our Paris commitments we should be 65 per cent below
2005 levels by 2030.
The latest emissions inventory shows that emissions from electricity,
transport, and industrial processes all went up. This reflects the
absence of effective policy to decarbonise these sectors.
“The latest projections show that, in the absence of policy changes,
national emissions are expected to continue rising over time,” he said.
“The federal Renewable Energy Target is projected to help decrease
electricity emissions till it stops growing in 2020. Without extra
policies electricity emissions are predicted to rise again thereafter.”
The government is to review its climate policy framework next year, but
has already withdrawn one widely recommended option, an emission
intensity trading scheme.
“Given the proven ineffectiveness of the government’s existing climate
policy framework, removing anything from the table before the review has
even commenced is a very costly mistake,” Mr Connor said.
“With 80 per cent of the $2.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund already used up, it will clearly need more of taxpayers’ money.”
If the Emissions Reduction Fund were to carry the billion tonne gap,
this would cost at best $12 billion (based on the average price per
tonne in the ERF’s last four auctions) but potentially $55 billion
(based on the IPCC’s estimate of a global carbon price consistent with
the government’s target).
This data released in the shadow of Christmas makes clear that the
Government needs to get serious on energy and climate policy reform.
There are far cheaper options than just relying on the taxpayer, and the
2017 review should be able to examine them all, said Connor. Links
Official data quietly released before Christmas shows emissions rose
0.8% in the year to June and will miss 2030 goal based on current
policies
A gas plant in Mount Isa, Queensland. Greenhouse gas emissions have again risen in Australia, according to official figures.
Photograph: Auscape/Getty Images/Universal Images Group
Australia’s emissions are rising and projected to keep doing so to
2030, meaning the country will fail to meet its 2030 emissions targets,
according to government figures.
The official quarterly figures, showing growth in year-on-year
emisssions, confirms independent projections from Ndevr Environmental,released earlier this month by Guardian Australia, which predicted Australia’s emissions would be rising.
The government figures also confirm emissions are predicted to rise
to 2030. Emissions that year are projected to be 10% higher than the
year to June 2016.
By 2030, the report estimates Australia will have emitted 1bn tonnes
more than it is allowed to, according to its 2030 commitments.
The figures were released on Thursday, just days before Christmas,
despite the results being finalised in September, according to documents
released on Wednesday night to the Australian Conservation Foundation
under freedom of information laws.
The report from the Department of Environment and Energy clearly
indicated that current policies would not allow Australia to meet its
2030 emissions targets.
“These results reflect the fact that the government’s policies are
primarily geared towards the 2020 target at this stage,” the report
said. Australia’s 2020 targets allow its total emissions to rise.
The report notes the projections do not take account of policies that
might emerge from the government’s 2017 review of climate policy – a
review the government has now said will not include discussion of any form of carbon price, including an emissions intensity scheme.The Climate Institute’s chief executive, John Connor, said if the
government continued with its current policy of paying polluters to
lower emissions it would cost the taxpayer dearly.
“With the government ruling out a policy option that would make
companies take responsibility for their own emissions, this
billion-tonne gap could see taxpayers slugged for $12bn to $55bn if the
Emissions Reduction Fund remains the government’s principal policy
tool,” Connor said.
“These results are a national embarrassment, so it’s not surprising
that the government has released this data as close as possible to
Christmas. Despite having committed through the Paris agreement to
reduce our emissions to net zero, our emissions are still going up, not
down – and it is because we don’t have effective policies to reduce
them,” Connor said.
The report already assumes 2,000 megawatts of coal power will be
retired after 2020 and a doubling of electricity generated from rooftop
solar between 2020 and 2030.
The figures are an improvement over projections made in 2015, when
the government expected 2030 emissions to be almost double what it now
expects them to be.
The report said the change in the projected emissions is a result of
Hazelwood –Australia’s dirtiest coal power station – closing; projected
increases in energy efficiency; lower emissions from land clearing; and
changes in the way emissions are counted.
“This is an improvement of 187% since we last updated our emissions projections,” said Josh Frydenberg, the minister for the environment and energy.
Australian Conservation Foundation economist Matthew Rose said:
“Transition for the electricity sector is a crucial environment and
economic reform that today’s data shows is being neglected. It is also
disappointing the government has decided to release such critical data
so close to Christmas in what one can only assume is a tactic to avoid
scrutiny.”
The pre-Christmas release of two quarters worth of data, plus
emissions projections, mirrors the government’s actions last year, when it released data on Christmas Eve showing emissions were rising.
Documents released to the Australian Conservation Foundation show a
final version of the March quarterly results was circulated as long ago
as September.
On 10 September 2016, an email from a senior Department of
Environment and Energy bureaucrat to a recipient whose name was
redacted, said: “Attached is the department’s final version of the
quarterly update. I will give you a call on Monday to discuss.”
Another email between bureaucrats in the department, dated 3 November
said: “I am just following up last night’s email on the quarterly
update and to note that we are expecting some agitation on the delay in
the release to the quarterly update soon.”
It is unclear from the correspondence if any significant revisions were made between September and Thursday’s release.
According to the new figures, Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions
rose 0.8% in the year to June 2016. And in the year to March 2016,
emissions were up 1.3%.
The results are even worse than those predicted by Ndevr
Environmental, which earlier projected emissions would be up by 0.4% in
the year to June 2016. But comparisons have been made difficult since
the government changed its methodology in the most recent figures.
The Labor spokesperson for climate change and energy, Mark Butler, said: “These results under Malcolm Turnbull are worse than anything Australia experienced under the known climate sceptic Tony Abbott.”
“The rise is startling, even more than projected by independent analysis,” Butler said.
The Greens climate change and energy spokesman, Adam Bandt, said:
“Malcolm Turnbull once said ‘we must make a dramatic reduction in the
world’s greenhouse gas emissions’, yet Australia’s greenhouse gas
emissions are actually rising under his leadership.
“Malcolm Turnbull is now the king of pollution.”
In a statement, Frydenberg chose to focus on the government’s 2020
target, which will be met using “carry over” from Australia beating it’s
Kyoto protocol target.
The Kyoto target allowed for Australia to continue increasing
emissions. But Australia beat that target by increasing emissions by
less than it was allowed to. The amount that it beat that target by was allowed to be “carried over” and
counted as abatement towards its 2020 target. That again allowed
Australia to potentially meet its 2020 target without actually reducing
emissions.
“Official figures show Australia beat its first Kyoto protocol
emissions target and is now on target to beat its 2020 emissions
reduction target by 224m tonnes,” Frydenberg said. “This is an
improvement of 187% since we last updated our emissions projections.”
Frydenberg also took aim at Labor’s carbon tax. “Our policies like
the Emissions Reduction Fund are working to reduce Australia’s emissions
at low cost, without driving up the price of electricity like Labor’s
carbon tax did,” he said.
“What this shows is that the government’s policies are working to
reduce emissions without lobbing a $15.4bn carbon tax on households and
businesses.”
The government has confirmed Australia's greenhouse gas emissions are
rising, and projected that it will not get near its 2030 climate target
under current policies.
But the country remains on track to "meet
and beat" the less ambitious 2020 target of a 5 per cent cut in
emissions compared to 2000 levels.
2017 weather outlook The Bureau of Meteorology release their climate and water outlook for the first quarter of 2017.
Released in the shadow of the Christmas holidays, the Environment Department greenhouse accounts show national emissions rose 0.8 per cent in the year to June. Here are the changes in emissions for the June quarter over the past decade:
The department analysis shows the increase largely came from
electricity generation - the country used more power without much change
in its reliance on fossil fuels - and new liquefied natural gas
projects.
In per capita terms, emissions per person continued to
fall - to less than 23 tonnes of carbon dioxide, down from about 26
tonnes a decade ago - as population growth outpaced the rise in
pollution.
In terms of future emissions, the government continues to revise down projections.
While they remain well above the 2030 target (a 26-28 per cent cut
compared with 2005 levels), the gap has closed significantly in the past
year.
Despite this, all parts of the economy are expected to have
higher emissions in 2030 than in 2020. It is expected Australians will
be using more electricity, more polluting transport and running larger
agricultural herds to meet overseas demand.
Steam rises from the Loy Yang coal power station in Victoria. Photo: Carla Gottgens
National emissions in 2030 are projected to be 592 million tonnes - see
the blue line below. Last year, they were projected to be 724 million
tonnes (the red line below). But to meet the target they will need to be
less than 450 million tonnes (the dotted lines below).
Illustration: Ron Tandberg
Australian Conservation Foundation economist Matt Rose said the
government was failing to cut climate pollution, and was holding back
evidence of its poor performance from the public.
Documents
released to the foundation after a Freedom of Information request showed
it had been sitting on the data since September, but chose to release
it just three days before Christmas.
"If the Government is so embarrassed by the results it should improve its policies," he said.
But
Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said Australia was on
target to beat its 2020 target and had made significant process in
reaching the 2030 target.
He said Australia's per capita emissions and emissions per unit of GDP were at their lowest level in 27 years.
"Our
policies, like the emissions reduction fund, are working to reduce
Australia's emissions at low cost, without driving up the price of
electricity like Labor's carbon tax did," he said.
Labor climate
spokesman Mark Butler said the greenhouse results under Malcolm Turnbull
were worse than those under "known climate sceptic" Tony Abbott.
The
report notes that emissions projections are inherently uncertain, and
the uncertainty becomes greater the further you go into the future.
Australia's emissions projections have become lower year on year, often
due to businesses and households outstripping Canberra in embracing
cleaner practice.
They are certain to change again. Current
projections do not factor in policies that are yet to be fully
introduced but have been flagged, including a national energy
productivity plan to improve efficiency, a program to cut emissions from
cars and state renewable energy targets.
The government is
reviewing climate policies next year, but has already ruled out any form
of carbon pricing that would penalise big emitters.
Business and
environment groups are urging the government to keep all options,
including a form of carbon pricing known as an emission intensity
scheme, open to ensure cuts are made as cheaply as possible.
If it’s hot outside, you’re more likely to believe in climate change.
The public perception of climate change is shaped by the weather that people experience, according to a study published yesterday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal.
People who live in areas where high temperature records are broken
are more likely to believe in global warming than those who do not. In
areas that experienced record lows, people were less inclined to believe
in the mainstream climate science that shows human activity is warming
the Earth.
People see climate change through a local lens, said Robert Kaufmann,
the study’s lead author and director of the Center for Energy and
Environmental Studies at Boston University. And in many areas of the
country, the climate is not changing in the same way that it is for the
entire planet.
That, of course, doesn’t mean climate science is wrong, since it
doesn’t claim that all parts of the planet will warm in the same way.
But the study shows that people’s daily weather experiences does lead to
skepticism in areas not breaking heat records, he said.
“When personal experience and expert opinion don’t align on a topic
that’s not critical to an individual’s well-being, they’re going to go
with their gut rather than what the expert tells them,” Kaufmann said.
Researchers noted that the discrepancy resulted from the public’s
equating of weather with climate, which many assume are the same. When
they head outside and the weather is extremely hot and humid, they are
more likely to believe in a warming climate, which is a weather trend
that lasts for decades. In addition, the term “global warming” has
convinced many people that they must feel record warmth for the theory
of a hotter planet to hold true, researchers found.
The areas where many heat records are broken, and where public
perception is tilted in the direction of mainstream climate science,
included much of the West Coast and the Northeast. Areas where there is a
high level of climate skepticism and record-breaking cold include Ohio
and much of the Mississippi River Valley.
I’ll make up my own mind
The study was released on the same day that the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration declared November the fifth hottest on record
and again noted that 2016 would likely be the hottest year on record
for global temperatures. The contiguous United States experienced its
fifth warmest November ever recorded, according to NOAA.
Despite the gap in perception, a majority of Americans want more
political and corporate responsibility on climate change, according to a
survey from Yale University’s climate change communication program,
released last week.
A majority of Americans favor political action on global warming,
despite the presidential victory of Donald Trump, who questions climate
science, the survey found. It shows that almost two-thirds of registered
voters across all parties want the Trump administration and Congress to
do more to address global warming. Almost three-quarters of Republicans
and about 90 percent of Democrats want corporations to do more on
climate change.
“For the most part, Americans want major institutions that have a lot
of power and influence to do more on the issue on global warming,” said
Matt Cutler, a Yale University researcher.
Still, Kaufmann said it’s human nature to trust one’s own experience over scientific evidence or political wisdom.
“Unless it really affects my everyday life, I’m not going to spend
time studying this issue, and I’m not necessarily going to believe
scientists either, especially now that experts are held in such ill
repute, but I’m going to make up my mind based on how I can see and feel
climate change,” he said. “For many people, that is record-high and
record-low temperatures.”
Two separate investigations into allegations of trade-based money laundering by Adani companies underway
Federal Government considering granting Adani a $1b subsidy to build a railway
Adani denies wrongdoing
The business behind the planned Carmichael coal mine in
North Queensland is facing multiple financial crime and corruption
probes, with Indian authorities investigating Adani companies for
siphoning money offshore and artificially inflating power prices at the
expense of Indian consumers.
Companies under scrutiny for the alleged corrupt
conduct include Adani Enterprises Limited — the ultimate parent company
of the massive mine planned for the Galilee Basin.
Two separate
investigations into allegations of trade-based money laundering by Adani
companies are underway — one into the fraudulent invoicing of coal
imports and the other into a scam involving false invoicing for capital
equipment imports.
"They are very serious allegations and they are
being conducted by the premier Indian government agency investigating
financial crime," Australia's foremost expert on money laundering,
Professor David Chaikin of the University of Sydney, told the ABC.
"The allegations involve substantial sums of money with major losses to the Indian taxpayer."
Adani denies wrongdoing.
The
"modus operandi" of the claimed fraud is outlined in a circular issued
by India's Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, which was obtained by
the ABC.
"Intelligence obtained by the Directorate of Revenue
Intelligence indicated that certain importers of Indonesian coal were
artificially inflating its import value as opposed to its actual value,"
Professor Chaikin said.
"The objective … appears to be two-fold:
(i) siphoning off money abroad and (ii) to avail higher power tariff
compensation based on [the] artificially inflated cost of the imported
coal."
Adani Enterprises Ltd accused of bribery of public officials
Five Adani Group companies are among a number of power companies named in the circular as under investigation.
These
include Adani Enterprises Ltd, the ultimate parent company of the Adani
entity, which holds the environmental approvals for the planned
Carmichael Coal Mine and a railway to the mine.
Adani Enterprises
Ltd has also been accused of involvement in large-scale illegal iron ore
exports and bribery of public officials.
According to a 2011
report by the ombudsman of the Indian State of Karnataka, obtained by
the ABC, police seized documents from Adani Enterprises in raids "which
indicate that money has been regularly paid to port authorities, customs
authorities, police department, mines and geology and even to
MLAs/MPs".
The revelations come as the Federal Government
considers granting Adani a $1 billion subsidy to build a railway from
the Abbot Point Coal Terminal to the mine site 400 kilometres inland.
When asked on AM whether the Northern Australia Infrastructure
Facility (NAIF) would wait until the Indian investigations are concluded
before approving the loan, Minister for Resources and Northern
Australia Matt Canavan said that was a matter for it to decide.
"That's
a matter for the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility - as I
said, I'm very confident in the skills and experience we've got on the
board," he said.
"They will make an assessment of these things and provide me advice."
The ABC asked the Government's NAIF, which
has an application from Adani for the subsidised, non-commercial loan,
whether it was appropriate to consider it when Adani companies were
facing multiple fraud allegations.
It also asked NAIF how it could
conduct proper due diligence for the loan when the Adani companies in
Australia, established for the rail project, were ultimately owned by a
private company in the Cayman Islands, a secretive tax haven, as the ABC revealed yesterday.
NAIF did not respond.
When Senator Canavan was asked on AM whether he was aware of the investigations into Adani, he said he was seeking advice.
"I've
asked my department for advice about it. As your story indicated there
are no findings at this stage on this investigation," he said.
"It's
not unusual, of course, for tax authorities and others to investigate
large companies, as it happened in this country with many companies and
has involved large settlements with the Australian Taxation Office.
"But I don't know the status of these allegations apart from the fact that they remain allegations."
However, Professor Chaikin said Adani's loan application should be put on ice until it is cleared of wrongdoing.
"No Australian bank or financial institution
or government should finance any transaction where there are
allegations of financial impropriety or crime on foot," Professor
Chaikin said.
"They should wait until those investigations are
concluded before they complete their due diligence process and decide
whether to make a loan."
Team examining alleged fraud by Indian Adani power company
Ariane
Wilkinson, a lawyer for legal team Environmental Justice Australia,
said the proposal was "seriously concerning" for a range of reasons.
"Not
least of which is that the companies that will be applying for the
loan, whether it is Adani Mining or one of the other companies owned in
the Cayman Islands, are connected through their parent companies to
allegations of fraudulent invoicing and trade-based money laundering,"
she said.
A Supreme Court appointed special "black money" investigation team is
examining an alleged fraud by Adani power companies in India.
The
companies have also been accused of siphoning off money in a fraud that
used inflated invoices for capital equipment imports to shift funds
offshore via intermediaries created in a tax haven zone of the United
Arab Emirates and in Mauritius.
Companies that own the port and planned railway for Adani's Carmichael coal mine are linked to the alleged fraud via a director.
Directorate
of Revenue Intelligence documents — cited in news company Indian
Express — state that the Mauritius intermediary company, Electrogen
Infra Holdings Pvt Ltd, is "controlled and managed by Vinod Shantilal
Shah, alias Vinod Shantilal Adani".
"Vinod Adani is believed to be
the sole director of one of the companies who have allegations against
them of fraudulent invoicing," Ms Wilkinson said.
"He's also the
sole director of companies in Singapore, who are the ultimate owners of
the Australian Adani entities, who own the port and the rail for the
mine."
Company searches by the ABC confirm that Vinod Adani is sole director of the Singapore parent companies.
The ABC has tried to reach Vinod Adani for comment.
Allegations are 'far-fetched' from laws of the land
An Adani Group spokesman told the ABC "the import of all goods were made under internationally competitive bidding processes".
"Reputed consultants evaluated bids received and the lowest bidder
was allocated the final contract," the spokesman said in a statement to
the ABC.
"The process was evaluated by the regulated authorities and financial institutions.
"So these are baseless allegations and far-fetched from the laws of the land."
Aside
from shifting money offshore, the impact of the alleged fraudulent
invoicing has been to push up power prices for Indian people.
"There is an irony," Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analytics director Tim Buckley said.
"Our
government is saying that we need to export coal in order to alleviate
Indian energy poverty and yet at the same time the Indian Government is
charging that Adani has been inflating the price of coal imports at the
expense of the Indian people through higher electricity prices."
King County Superior Court Judge Hollis Hill says young petitioners deserve 'their day in court' to protect their rights
Petitioner Gabe Mandell, centre, 14, addresses media members and
supporters as he stands with other children asking Seattle court to
force state officials to adopt new rules to limit carbon emissions. Elaine Thompson/AP
Eight Seattle children should have “their day in court” to argue that Washington State and others aren't protecting them from climate change, a judge ruled.
King County Superior Court Judge Hollis Hill allowed the
young petitioners to move ahead in their case against the state, writing
that “it is time for these youth to have the opportunity to address
their concerns in a court of law, concerns raised under statute and
under the state and federal constitutions.”
The petitioners, between 12 and 16 years old, had asked the
judge last month to find the state Department of Ecology in contempt for
failing to adequately protect them and future generations from global
warming.
The judge on Monday said Ecology had complied with her
orders by adopting the Clean Air Rule within the timeline set by the
court, and so denied the youth's request to find Ecology in contempt.
But the judge allowed the young people to amend their
complaint and move ahead with their constitutional claims “so as to have
their day in court,” she wrote.
“The Court takes this action due to the emergent need for
coordinated science based action by the State of Washington to address
climate change before efforts to do so are too costly and too late,”
Hill wrote.
The petitioners can now go to court and argue that the state
has violated their rights under the state constitution and the legal
principle called the public trust doctrine, which requires the
government to protect shared resources, said Andrea Rodgers, a Western
Environmental Law Center attorney representing the youth.
All of the policies that the state has implemented in
response to climate change are not resulting in emissions reductions
that comply with state law and science, she said.
Ecology spokeswoman Camille St. Onge said the state has
adopted one of nation's most progressive carbon pollution reduction
regulations and “will continue to do our part to help slow climate
change.”
The case is part of a larger effort led by the Oregon-based
nonprofit Our Children's Trust to force governments to take action on
climate change.
Last month, a federal judge in Eugene, Oregon, allowed a
similar climate change case against President Barack Obama's
administration to proceed. In that lawsuit, 21 activists ages 9 to 20
argue that the federal government's actions violate their constitutional
rights to life, liberty, and property, and the government has violated
its obligation to hold certain natural resources in trust for future
generations.
A group of emperor penguins face a crack in the sea ice, near McMurdo Station, Antarctica. Kira Morris
The judge in Seattle noted that the youth argued in their
initial petition for a rule limiting greenhouse gas emissions based on
the best available science. A rule was adopted but, the judge wrote,
Ecology agreed that it isn't intended to meet the requirements of a
state law requiring specific reductions of greenhouse gas emissions over
the next decades.
The petitioners say governments must adopt science-based
prescriptions that protect the rights of young people and future
generations to a stable climate.
The judge said she would retain jurisdiction in the case.
Climate change has
become so severe and so obvious that geologists, who typically deal on
timescales of millions of years, have hastily named a new epoch: the Anthropocene. Earth’s human-made sixth mass extinction
has altered ecosystems even as other ecosystems have been more directly
wiped out. The world has been thrown into fast forward and the whiplash
will forever change how our planet functions.
It’s
important to reiterate that the fossil fuel consumption that causes
much of global warming is hardly the only thing throwing ecological
systems into disarray. Humans also cause trouble by cutting down forests
to make way for farms and cities, polluting air and water with toxic
chemicals, and hunting and fishing animals to the brink of extinction or
worse. Climate change is more than a CO2 PPM reading.
These
human-caused changes are nothing new — we’ve been sculpting ecosystems
for tens of thousands of years. But our population has grown so
significantly and so quickly while developing tools of unprecedented
power, that we’re altering the landscape at an outrageous speed. And
when ecosystems are lost, they stay lost. Whatever we build and however
we strategically reverse engineer livable spaces, what’s gone is gone.
Here’s what we’ll lose in 2017. Precisely 100 Feet of Alaska’s North Coast
Alaska has seen a dramatic rise in rates of coastal
erosion over the past few decades. Permafrost melt is destabilizing
land and increasing runoff, while diminished sea ice cover and warmer
water are stirring up larger storms that eat away at the shore. Along
the Beaufort Sea coast, erosion rates have been calculated at up to 100 feet per year, a staggering number when considered on a geologic timescale.
The consequences of this land loss are dire for flora and fauna, including Alaskans. Nearly 200 Alaska Native villages are affected
by sea level rise and erosion, and four are in imminent danger and need
to be relocated. The move has already begun in Newtok, Alaska, where
six homes have been built at a proposed new townsite. These communities
are mostly in limbo without funds to pay for needed relocations, but the
water and the moves will come regardless. The White Rhino and Thousands of Other Species
The global rate of species extinction is pretty hard to pin down, but estimates have put the current rate of extinction
at 100 to 1,000 times the background (non-human influenced) rate, and
the background rate at between 0.1 and one extinction per million
species every year. The total number of species on Earth is an unknown
figure, with estimates ranging as wide as
8.7 million and a trillion, but we know that the ratio of extant to
extinct is changing at an alarming rate. Charismatic megafauna — next
up, the White Rhino — are regularly drafted as poster species for
ecosystem collapse, but campaigns have not resulted in systemic
protections of any notable efficacy.
A very conservative estimate would suggest that
several hundred species will be wiped off the Earth in 2017, but the
real number (again, unknowable because many will never have been
“discovered) will be way higher. Almost all, if not all, will escape
unnoticed, before even being given a scientific name. Likely at least
one of the three remaining northern white rhinoceroses will make it
through the year, as they are guarded 24/7 by armed guards, though the
rhinos are possibly extinct already in the wild.
Climate change can’t be blamed for all of this — humans have had a role in the end of species
long before we mastered the art of turning fossil fuels into useful
energy. But add increasingly chaotic weather patterns to habitat loss,
pollution, and poaching, and you have a recipe for mass extinction. 1000 Square Miles of Surface Water
Recent research found that about 35,000 square miles of permanent surface water was lost
around the world over the past 32 years, a rate of more than 1,000
square miles each year. The cause of these losses was largely drought
and poorly managed withdrawals for agriculture and human uses. The study
also found that twice that much water surface area was added over the
same timeframe, from damning, reservoir filling, and increased glacier
melt and precipitation due to climate change. But the addition of water
reserves doesn’t simply balance out the losses in places that lack.
The Aral Sea, which lies on the border between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, has shrunk by 60 percent
in three decades. It used to be the fourth-largest lake in the world.
The water was diverted to turn desert into cropland, which was great for
a while until the water started running out. Now, the water that’s left
is salty and polluted with agricultural runoff. Contaminated dust from
the barren lakebed blows through the region, degrading soil and air
quality. The lake’s weather moderating effects have subsided, resulting
in hotter and drier summers and colder winters. 1,000,000,000,000 Square Feet of Arctic Ice
A recent study found a clear correlation
between the amount of greenhouse gas pumped into the atmosphere and the
loss of Arctic sea ice. For every metric tonne of Carbon dioxide humans
release, 32 square feet of ice is lost. Assuming world emissions stay
flat, in 2017 we’ll lose more than a trillion square feet of Arctic ice —
an area about the size of Indiana.
By these
calculations, we’ll see an Arctic that is seasonally completely ice free
by 2045, or maybe sooner. That hasn’t happened in at least 100,000
years. Polar bears will go hungry longer, and Arctic nations will
squabble over who has rights to prospect these newly open seas for
riches. An ice-free Arctic also contributes to further warming, since
open water absorbs more heat than white snow and ice. And a warmer
Arctic has consequences for the rest of the world, too — it has been
linked to more persistent weather patterns, which means more flooding
but also more drought.
