Climate Scientists Warn Time Is Running Out To Prevent Global Environmental Collapse

ABC AM - Michael Edwards

Time is running out to prevent a global environmental collapse — that's the stark warning 15,364 of the world's leading climate scientists have sent out.

The paper depicts a bleak future world ravaged by climate change. (Reuters: Jason Lee)

Key points: 15,364 scientists from 180 countries out their names to the BioScience journal article Paper called for population growth to be limited, and governments to stop only focusing on economic growth However, scientists said it was not too late for governments to take action to prevent it

Scientists from 180 countries, many in the developing world, put their names to the journal article published today in Bioscience, which also predicted temperature rises and unpredictable weather patterns that would cause widespread misery.
But the paper also noted it was not too late for governments to do something about it.
The number is believed to be the largest group of scientists to have ever put their names to a research paper focused on climate change.
One of the key authors of the paper, Bill Laurance, a research professor at James Cook University in Queensland, said this was the first time he had ever seen such a letter get sent out.
The paper focused on a number of issues, including the depletion of oceans, deforestation, endangered species and extinct species numbers, fresh water pollution and urban liveability.
"All kinds of instances of liveability of the planet," he said.

"It's far more than just climate change, although that's certainly a critical part."

The paper has depicted a bleak future world ravaged by climate change, a world characterised by human misery.
It called for population growth to be limited and for governments to stop focusing solely on economic growth.
Professor Laurance said too many governments were still thinking short-term, citing Australia as an example, who he said had moved "backwards quite a lot in the last five to 10 years".
"For instance, Australia jettisoned the carbon tax, that was probably one of the most progressive things — it provided stability for the investment market, it provided incentives for alternative energy schemes and green energy sources, which are very important," he said.
"We're not going to get rid of coal overnight, but it is the dirtiest of all the fossil fuels and it is the one that contributes the most to global warming."

Global C02 emissions on the rise
The papers release coincided with new data showing Global CO2 emissions had risen for the first time in three years.
The Global Carbon Project collated the figures and blamed the increase on a growth in coal-fired electricity generation, as well as Chinese oil and gas consumption.
Local carbon emissions accounted for some of the rise, and scientists such as Frank Jotzo, from the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University, expressed concern Australia would not make its targets under the Paris Agreement.
"The outlook for 2017 is once again for no decline or perhaps more growth in greenhouse emissions — we're not seeing the kind of change that we'll need to see in order to meet the Paris commitments," Professor Jotzo said.

Links

• Thousands of scientists issue bleak ‘second notice’ to humanity
• World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice
• 'Time is running out'
• 1992 World Scientists' Warning to Humanity

How To Save Humanity: 15,000 Scientists Urge Action Before 'Vast Human Misery' Takes Over

Newsweek - Sydney Pereira

More than 15,000 scientists signed a warning letter to humanity. Its namesake? "A Second Notice." These experts are warning humanity for the second time against catastrophic biodiversity loss and widespread misery for humans, in a cautionary message for humans to make major changes.
The open letter, signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries, was published on Monday in BioScience. The massive group of scientists, led by William J. Ripple of Oregon State University, is pleading for humans to cut greenhouse gas emissions, phase out fossil fuels, reduce deforestation, and reverse the trend of collapsing biodiversity.
“Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory, and time is running out,” the authors concluded. “We must recognize, in our day-to-day lives and in our governing institutions, that Earth with all its life is our only home.”

An aerial view of a deforested Amazonian jungle is seen close to Maraba, in Brazil's central state of Para in this May 3, 2009 file photo. Reuters

It is the 25th anniversary since thousands of scientists signed a letter warning humanity back in 1992 in the “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity.” On Monday, scientists are saying humanity has mostly failed at solving the problems that will be likely to lead to “vast human misery,” according to the first letter.
Since 1960, freshwater resources and vertebrate species have decreased by around 25 percent. Marine dead zones have skyrocketed by three-quarters. Carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 62 percent since 1960. The human population has increased by 35 percent and livestock by 20 percent.
“Moreover,” the authors write, “we have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century.”

Binata Pinata stands on top of a rock holding a fish her husband Kaibakia just caught off Bikeman islet, located off South Tarawa in the central Pacific island nation of Kiribati May 25, 2013. With surrounding sea levels rising, Kiribati President Anote Tong has predicted his country will likely become uninhabitable in 30-60 years because of inundation and contamination of its freshwater supplies. Reuters

The one shining light is the decrease of ozone-depleting chemicals by 68 percent. Earlier this month, the ozone hole was the smallest measured since 1988 (though still 2.5 times the size of the U.S.).
“The rapid global decline in ozone-depleting substances shows that we can make positive change when we act decisively,” they wrote. “We have also made advancements in reducing extreme poverty and hungry.” Other global successes include: decline in fertility rates, decline in deforestation, and rapid growth in the renewable-energy sector, all of which are happening in certain regions.
Within the doom-and-gloom disastrous future that scientists have predicted in their research, they offered several solutions. Though neither easy nor simple, they could reverse or at least curb humanity's current trajectory.
One solution, likely the most obvious: Phase out fossil fuels and increase green technologies and renewable energy. Plus, divest from fossil fuels altogether. Divestment—which refers to the ending of monetary investments of fossil fuels—would “encourage positive environmental change.”

Protestors with a giant silver baloon which symbolizes carbon emissions stand behind a banner with the message, "Divest. Keep it in the Ground" asking investment funds to move their money out of fossil fuels at the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) in Le Bourget, near Paris, France, December 2, 2015. Reuters 

Eating more plant-based foods would also curb the impending doom scientists predict, as well as reducing food waste overall. How to do that, they wrote, is through education and better infrastructure.
The letter urges us all to prioritize reserves for the world’s land, marine, freshwater, and aerial habitats—particularly those that are well-funded and well-managed. Maintaining nature’s “ecosystem services” by ending the conversion of forests, grasslands, and other native habitats was another recommendation. Ecosystem services are services that humans can benefit from by letting nature function normally. Those two recommendations above relate to three other recommendations: restoring native plant communities, rewilding regions with native species, and implementing adequate policy to end the poaching crisis.

Fire burns part of an estimated 105 tonnes of ivory and a tonne of rhino horn confiscated from smugglers and poachers at the Nairobi National Park near Nairobi, Kenya, April 30, 2016. Reuters

Reproductive healthcare also made its way into the list of recommendations. Increasing education and voluntary family-planning services—especially where those resources are lacking—could reduce fertility rates. The human population has increased by 35 percent since 1992, the letter said, which adds further stress on Earth’s resources. They advise to estimate a scientifically defensible and sustainable population size for the long term.
The economic structure should address wealth inequalities in order to ensure that prices, taxation, and incentive systems take into account the cost of consumption patterns on the environment. General appreciation of nature, and an increase in nature education for children could help, too.
They ended with a positive message, writing: “We can make great progress for the sake of humanity and the planet on which we depend.”

Links

• Thousands of scientists issue bleak ‘second notice’ to humanity
• World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice
• 'Time is running out'
• 1992 World Scientists' Warning to Humanity

Thousands Of Scientists Issue Bleak ‘Second Notice’ To Humanity

Washington Post - Sarah Kaplan

Planet Earth (NASA)

In late 1992, 1,700 scientists from around the world issued a dire “warning to humanity.” They said humans had pushed Earth's ecosystems to their breaking point and were well on the way to ruining the planet. The letter listed environmental impacts like they were biblical plagues — stratospheric ozone depletion, air and water pollution, the collapse of fisheries and loss of soil productivity, deforestation, species loss and  catastrophic global climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
“If not checked,” wrote the scientists, led by particle physicist and Union of Concerned Scientists co-founder Henry Kendall, “many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know.”
But things were only going to get worse.
To mark the letter's 25th anniversary, researchers have issued a bracing follow-up. In a communique published Monday in the journal BioScience, more than 15,000 scientists from 184 countries assess the world's latest responses to various environmental threats. Once again, they find us sorely wanting.
“Humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving these foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse,” they write.
This letter, spearheaded by Oregon State University ecologist William Ripple, serves as a “second notice,” the authors say: “Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory.”
Global climate change sits atop the new letter's list of planetary threats. Global average temperatures have risen by more than half a degree Celsius since 1992, and annual carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 62 percent.
But it's far from the only problem people face. Access to fresh water has declined, as has the amount of forestland and the number of wild-caught fish (a marker of the health of global fisheries). The number of ocean dead zones has increased. The human population grew by a whopping 2 billion, while the populations of all other mammals, reptiles, amphibians and fish have declined by nearly 30 percent.
The lone bright spot exists way up in the stratosphere, where the hole in the planet's protective ozone layer has shrunk to its smallest size since 1988. Scientists credit that progress to the phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons — chemicals once used in refrigerators, air conditioners and aerosol cans that trigger reactions in the atmosphere to break down ozone.
“The rapid global decline in ozone depleting substances shows that we can make positive change when we act decisively,” the letter says.
The authors offer 13 suggestions for reining in our impact on the planet, including establishing nature reserves, reducing food waste, developing green technologies and establishing economic incentives to  shift patterns of consumption.
To this end, Ripple and his colleagues have formed a new organization, the Alliance of World Scientists, aimed at providing a science-based perspective on issues affecting the well-being of people and the planet.
“Scientists are in the business of analyzing data and looking at the long-term consequences,” Ripple said in a release. “Those who signed this second warning aren't just raising a false alarm. They are acknowledging the obvious signs that we are heading down an unsustainable path. We are hoping that our paper will ignite a widespread public debate about the global environment and climate.”

Links

• The Earth's ozone hole is shrinking and is the smallest it has been since 1988
• Fossil fuel emissions will reach an all-time high in 2017, scientists say — dashing hopes of progress
• Trump's top environmental pick says she has 'many questions' about climate change

Up To 40 Per Cent Of Canberra Trees Face Some Risk From Climate Change

Fairfax - Nicole Hasham

As many as 40 per cent of Canberra's trees would be at some risk from increased temperatures under a business-as-usual scenario in which emissions continue to increase to 2070.
New research has found climate change severely threatens the health of more than one-third of tree species in Australia's cities.
The federally funded study of 1.5 million trees in 29 council areas across Australia found that higher temperatures and urban heat means new tree species may be introduced, existing trees must be given special care and some trees may disappear in certain locations.

Trees in Australian cities threatened by climate change
Research from the University of Melbourne has found that street trees and urban forests are facing a grave threat if emissions keep rising.

More than four in 10 houses in Australia's capital cities have a street tree.
Trees can greatly affect people's experience of a city - providing shade, places for recreation and a sense of place and heritage.

Trees surrounding the National Library. Photo: Claire Lander

They also cool the city, capture rain, slow stormwater and provide habitat for birds and other animals.
But the study found 24 per cent of all public trees, or 35 per cent of tree species, were at high risk from increased temperatures under a business-as-usual scenario in which emissions continue to increase to 2070.
Some 14 per cent of all public trees, or 22 per cent of tree species, were at high risk of increased temperatures if emissions were limited, in line with international commitments, in the years to 2040.
Trees were deemed at high risk when predicted temperatures were warmer than 97.5 per cent of locations where the species is found – making them particularly susceptible to drought, physiological stress and pest and disease outbreaks.
In Canberra, 5 per cent of trees were at high risk under a business-as-usual scenario, including two species of eucalyptus and a European elm. A further 35 per cent of trees were at some risk.
In the City of Sydney, 50 per cent of trees were at high risk under a business-as-usual scenario. They included brush box, European nettles, grey oaks and several eucalypt species.
In the inner west Sydney suburb of Marrickville, a business-as-usual scenario put 40 per cent of trees at high risk, including casuarina she-oaks, black locusts and several eucalyptus species.
Some 32 per cent of trees were at risk under business-as-usual in the City of Melbourne. They included several species of elms, oaks and eucalypts.
Melbourne's inner north City of Moreland would see 26 per cent of trees at high risk under a business-as-usual scenario, such as purple-leafed plums, prairie crabapples and the narrow-leafed ash.
Darwin had the highest proportion of trees – 85 per cent - most at high risk if emission levels rose to 2070, while Ballarat had just 1 per cent at high risk.
Risks to trees were posed by both rising global temperatures and the urban "heat island" effect, where localised warming occurs due to dark-coloured and paved surfaces, buildings and the emission of heat from human activities.
The study was conducted by the Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub, a consortium of four universities funded by the Department of Environment and Energy.
It said "changes to the composition and the traits of the urban forest will lead to changes in the sense of place and identity of cities."
"Many cities in south-eastern Australia have a strong European colonial heritage expressed in their many broad-leaved deciduous trees that is likely to change under future climates," it said.
Conversely, local native trees helped create unique city identities and connections to natural heritage and traditional Indigenous ownership.
The report said urban forest managers could adapt to increasing temperatures by providing irrigation or improved pest and disease management, improved tree maintenance and  selecting trees that are better adapted to future climates.

Links

• Millions of city trees at risk from rising temperatures
• Re-inventing our cities to be greener, smarter and more cultured
• International exhibition puts sustainability at the heart of design
• Stressed urban forests to benefit from new tree experts

First CO2 Rise In Four Years Puts Pressure On Paris Targets

BBC - Matt McGrath

Consumption of coal has grown once again in China after three years of decline. Getty Images

Global emissions of CO2 in 2017 are projected to rise for the first time in four years, dashing hopes that a peak might soon be reached.
The main cause of the expected growth has been greater use of coal in China as its economy expanded.
Researchers are uncertain if the rise in emissions is a one-off or the start of a new period of CO2 build-up.
Scientists say that a global peak in CO2 before 2020 is needed to limit dangerous global warming this century.The Global Carbon Project has been analysing and reporting on the scale of emissions of CO2 since 2006.
Carbon output has grown by about 3% per year in that period, but growth essentially declined or remained flat between 2014 and 2016.Concern at first CO2 rise in four years.

The latest figures indicate that in 2017, emissions of CO2 from all human activities grew by about 2% globally.
There is some uncertainty about the data but the researchers involved have concluded that emissions are on the rise again.
"Global CO2 emissions appear to be going up strongly once again after a three-year stable period. This is very disappointing," said the lead author of the study, Prof Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia.
"With global CO2 emissions from human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below 2 degrees C, let alone 1.5C."
The most important element in causing this rise has been China, which is responsible for around 28% of the global total. Emissions there went up 3.5% in 2017, mainly because of increased coal use, driven in the main by a growing economy.

US coal production has increased slightly this year mainly due to export demand. Getty Images

 Another important factor in China has been lower water levels in rivers which have seen a drop in the amount of electricity made from hydro-power, with utilities turning to coal and gas to make up the shortfall.
US emissions have continued to decline but the fall has been less than expected. Higher prices saw a drop in the use of natural gas for electricity - with renewables and hydro-power picking up the slack.
Coal use has also grown slightly in the US this year, with consumption up about a half of one percent.
India's emissions are projected to grow by about 2%, which is a considerable decrease from around 6% per year over the last decade.
However, experts believe that this may be a temporary drop-off caused by a number of factors that have hampered the consumption of oil and cement.

Action required
Europe also saw a smaller decline than expected, falling by 0.2% compared with 2.2% over the last 10 years.
One common theme around the world is continued use of gas and oil, says Prof Le Quéré.
"There have been lots of ups and downs in the use of coal but in the background there has been no weakening in the use of oil and gas. And that is quite worrisome."
The report has been launched in Bonn where UN negotiators are trying to move forward with the rules for the Paris climate agreement.
Researchers involved with the study say they are not moving fast enough.
"Lots of diplomats are working out the rules but that is all a little bit meaningless unless they go back home to their countries and ratchet up climate action and that is where the gap is," said Dr Glen Peters, from the Centre for International Climate Research in Norway.
"These countries have to be pushing on with the policies, but everything keeps getting pushed back."

Demonstrators at UN talks in Bonn demand faster cuts in carbon. Sean Hawkey/WCC

The report is sure to increase tensions in Bonn between developed and developing nations.
There is increasing resentment about the fact that all the focus is on future commitments made under the Paris climate agreement but very little on the years before it becomes active.
Poorer countries want the richer ones to increase their carbon-cutting actions over the next three years.
"The climate will not let us wait until 2020 when the Paris agreement comes into force," said Nicaragua's chief negotiator, Paul Oquist.
"Climate change is happening now and it's vital that immediate actions to cut emissions become a feature of this summit."
The new research on carbon emissions has been published simultaneously in the journals Nature Climate Change, Earth System Science Data Discussions and Environmental Research Letters.

Links

• Trump emissions threat to US car industry
• Record surge in atmospheric CO2 in 2016
• A brief history of the Earth's CO2
• Guide: What is climate change?

Ardern Calls For End On Subsidies Of Fossil Fuels

NewstalkZB - NZ Newswire

Jacinda Ardern made the call at an APEC conference. Photo/Getty

Sitting next to the vice president of the world's largest public oil and gas company, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has called for an end to subsidies for fossil fuels.
Instead the world needs to find the right incentives to drive change toward sustainable resources, she told the APEC CEO's Summit where she appeared on a panel alongside Exxon Mobil vice president Robert Franklin.
Ardern has frequently described climate change as the greatest issue of her generation and did so again on Friday.
"It's literally lapping at our feet," she said.
"Our relative size or contribution doesn't matter when it comes to our international responsibility. No matter how small we are we have a role to play, as we all do."
Ardern shared her government's plan for a climate commission and a transition to 100 per cent renewable energy by 2035.
Described by the panel moderator as "one of the youngest and most vibrant leaders we have ever seen on this stage" Ms Ardern took aim at the US$500 billion spent by governments every year to subsidise fossil fuels which is four times the amount spent on renewables.
"We must faze them out. It is incumbent on us to begin incentivising investment in the right technologies."
Franklin said energy had to be provided in a way that was affordable to all users but acknowledged it had to be done in a way that was respectful to the environment.
Exxon Mobil, the world's largest publicly listed oil and gas company, has indicated in the past that climate change would not stop it selling fossil fuels.
"Having theoretical resources which are not affordable for consumers punishes economies around the world and we've seen that many times," Franklin said.
He talked up the the substitution of natural gas and coal as being behind to the largest industrial sector
"People don't like to hear it but in practice it has reduced CO2 emissions in the US by more than every (solar) panel and every wind turbine," he said.
But he added that fact wasn't to say governments and industries shouldn't explore those options.
Ardern finished up the panel by recognising the issue of competing demands around the affordability of renewable energy for developing nations, but pointed out that many of those would feel the effects of climate change first.

Links

• Jacinda Ardern makes debut on world stage telling APEC 'climate change is the greatest challenge facing this generation'
• Everyone must address climate change: Ardern
• Jacinda Ardern: It's my responsibility to lead on climate change
• Jacinda Ardern: New Zealand's female PM takes on Apec

Medibank To Dump Holdings In Fossil Fuels Over Climate Change Health Fears

Fairfax - Nicole Hasham

Medibank, one of Australia's biggest health insurers, has announced it will dump its holdings in fossil fuel companies amid concern over the health effects of climate change.
In a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange on Monday morning, Medibank said it would transition to low-carbon investments in its international portfolio within the next year, to reflect the global transition to clean energy.

Medibank chairwoman Elizabeth Alexander. Photo: John Woudstra

"We are also committed to exploring a similar approach with our domestic equity portfolio, and so we will be actively encouraging fund managers to develop a suitable product for us that is socially responsible, cost effective and delivers a sustainable investment return," the statement said.
The announcement by chairwoman Elizabeth Alexander preceded the company's annual general meeting in Melbourne on Monday.

Medibank said it would transition to low-carbon investments in its international portfolio within the next year. Photo: AP

"We understand that the health of the environment has an impact on the health of the community ... Medibank acknowledges the science of climate change and the impacts on human health," the statement said.

"We also recognise our role as a corporate citizen, and the increasing expectations the community has of corporate Australia."
Divestment from fossil fuel companies has emerged as a key front in the fight against climate change, helped by major institutions that have started to divest, including Norway's government pension fund.
Since about 2011, institutions across Australia – which is among the world's highest per person emitters of carbon dioxide – have been under pressure to offload their stakes in mining and non-renewable energy companies.
Campaigns have targeted universities, churches, local councils, superannuation funds and banks.
Environmental finance group Market Forces said the announcement by Medibank, which has 3.8 million members, means all of Australia's major health insurers have now agreed to shift their money from fossil fuels.
"It's extremely positive that Medibank has ended its unhealthy addiction to fossil fuels," campaigner Pablo Brait said.
"The medical profession has long understood that climate change has a devastating effect on people's health, so it stands to reason medical insurers should not be invested in the industries which drive it."

Links

• Medibank to pull back from carbon polluting investments
• Medibank drops fossil-fuel investments worth tens of millions of dollars
• Medibank to cut high-carbon investments
• Medibank reduces exposure to carbon-intensive assets