Are Carbon Emissions Coming Down In Australia?

RMIT ABC Fact Check - Sushi Das | Ellen McCutchan

Former Howard government minister Amanda Vanstone says that emissions are coming down in Australia. (ABC News)

The claim

Watch Ms Vanstone make the claim on Q&A (ABC News)

During a recent episode of the ABC's Q&A program, former Liberal minister Amanda Vanstone claimed "emissions are coming down" in Australia.
Her comment came a few days before a major UN climate summit, COP24, held in Katowice, Poland.
Other panellists on Q&A contradicted Ms Vanstone, saying emissions were rising. This prompted many viewers of the program to call on RMIT ABC Fact Check to investigate Ms Vanstone's claim.

The verdict
Ms Vanstone's claim is misleading.
Latest federal government figures suggest that although greenhouse gas emissions have fallen over the past 10 years, emissions started trending upwards again about four years ago.
The upturn, since 2014, has coincided with the Abbott government's removal of the carbon tax.
Also, while emissions from electricity production have been falling, the decrease has been outweighed over the past four years by rising emissions in other sectors of the economy, such as transport, where emissions are associated with increased LNG production for export.
Emissions can be measured in different ways: for example, as total emissions or emissions per capita or per GDP.
In the past year, Australia's total emissions have been rising. But emissions per capita or per dollar of real GDP have been falling, mainly due to Australia's rapid population growth.
However, it is worth noting that Australia's progress in cutting emissions under its international obligations (the Paris Agreement) is measured by changes in total emissions rather than by other measures.
As one expert put it: "The atmosphere doesn't care how many people are contributing to emissions; it's the total quantity of emissions that matters."

The context
Ms Vanstone made her claim during a discussion on Q&A about a protest by Australian schoolchildren titled 'Strike 4 Climate Action'.
She was speaking about the climate policies of Australia's two major political parties, and in the broader context of greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on the environment, as perceived by young people.

Emissions in the transport sector have increased over the long term. (AAP Image: Melanie Foster)

Ms Vanstone did not specify which kind of emissions she was talking about. Nor whether she was referring to simple totals or ratios.
Fact Check invited her to clarify this. She said she had not been expecting to talk about emissions: "I can't tell you that I had a particular tight construct in my head at the time," she said.
"I think I was just making a general remark about emissions generally over a long period of time."
Fact Check considers it reasonable to assume that her claim refers to Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions over the past 10 years — the length of time examined by the Government's most recent report on emissions.

What others are saying
Ms Vanstone is not alone in claiming emissions in Australia are decreasing, though other speakers have been more specific.
Liberal senator Linda Reynolds, also on Q&A, said carbon emissions per capita and by GDP were at their lowest levels in 28 years.

The electricity sector has seen emissions decreased in the year to September 2018. (ABC News: Jane Cowan)

Federal Environment Minister Melissa Price also highlighted this low in a press release announcing the Government's latest quarterly emissions data.
Nonetheless, she acknowledged that total emissions had risen over the year to June 2018.
Others have also pointed to the rise in total emissions.
Labor senator Lisa Singh, another of the recent Q&A panelists, argued that "emissions have continued to go up since 2011".
And on ABC radio the same week, Richie Merzian, the climate and energy director for think tank the Australia Institute said: "For the last four years, Australia's greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing."

Measuring emissions
The Australian Department of the Environment and Energy collects and publishes a series of reports and databases, known as the National Greenhouse Accounts.
The accounts track greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 onwards, and fulfil Australia's international reporting obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol.
Quarterly reports, released as part of the accounts, track total emissions as well as emissions by sector, per capita and per GDP.
The latest report, released three days before Ms Vanstone's Q&A appearance, provides estimates of Australia's national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions up to the June quarter of 2018.
The report examines emissions produced by eight sectors: electricity, stationary energy, transport, fugitive emissions (for example, leakages), industrial processes and product use, agriculture, waste, and land use, land use change and forestry.

Emissions from electricity production are falling
The report shows emissions in the electricity sector have fallen by 3.6 per cent in the year to September 2018.
This was driven by a 13 per cent reduction in brown coal supply and a corresponding 14 per cent increase in supply derived from renewable sources, it says.
But emissions from other sectors, such as transport, have been rising.
Hugh Saddler, an honorary associate professor at ANU's Crawford School of Public Policy, told Fact Check:

"Significant increases in emissions from petroleum and diesel consumption in transport, and gas consumption associated with LNG, have outweighed the decrease in emissions from the electricity sector."

What's going on with total emissions?
Over the year to June 2018, Australia's total greenhouse gas emissions rose in each quarter, according to the report.
Specifically, seasonally adjusted total emissions rose 1.3 per cent in the June quarter and by 0.6 per cent in the year to June 2018.
While emissions have fluctuated over the past four years, they have been trending upwards since late 2014, as the graph below shows. The data shows emissions have risen 5 per cent over this time.
Emissions touched their lowest point in March 2013, but have since rebounded to 2011 levels.
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, Australia has committed to a reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions of between 26 per cent and 28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.
According to the national greenhouse audit, total emissions are down 11.7 per cent on 2005 (the Paris Agreement base year) and 7.5 per cent since 1990 (the base year for Kyoto Protocol calculations). Why are people saying emissions are falling?
As shown above, total greenhouse emissions when measured quarterly over the past year, or by trend data over the past four years, have been rising.
So, why are some people arguing that emissions are going down?
Because, when emissions are measured per capita or per dollar of GDP, they are lower. This is because Australia is experiencing rapid population growth.
The Department of the Environment and Energy highlights this fall in both the preface to its latest quarterly greenhouse report and on its website.
The report states that emissions per capita and the emissions intensity of the Australian economy were at their lowest levels in 28 years, falling 37 per cent and 60 per cent respectively since 1990.

Are emissions per capita and per GDP useful measures?
Put simply, no.
Dr Saddler said focusing on emissions per capita was meaningless, since the measure used in international agreements was the more crucial total emissions.
"The atmosphere doesn't care how many people are contributing to emissions; it's the total quantity of emissions that matters," he said.
Professor David Karoly, an internationally recognised expert on climate change, said the emissions per capita was a useful measure when it allowed for country by country comparisons.
"The Australian per capita share at the moment is higher than any other developed country in the world — higher than the US. Yes, it's coming down, but it is still the highest."
Both Dr Saddler and Professor Karoly confirmed the fall in emissions per capita and GDP were due to rapid population growth in Australia.

Experts assess the claim
Professor Karoly said if Amanda Vanstone's claim was made in reference to total Australian emissions, "they are going up".
He noted that the start of the recent rebound in emissions from mid-2014 coincided with the dumping of the carbon tax by the Abbott government in July of that year.
Professor Mark Howden, the director of ANU's Climate Change Institute, told Fact Check: "I think it is correct to say that Australian emissions were coming down, but are now rising steadily."
He said an argument could be made that emissions have come down, given they are lower now than at their peak between 2005 and 2008.
"However, this is a problematic argument," he said.

"Under the current mix of policies and economic activities, emissions are clearly not coming down but instead are rising steadily."

Pep Canadell, a senior principal research scientist in the CSIRO Climate Science Centre, and the executive director of the Global Carbon Project, suggested that 1990 was a good reference year for gleaning a long-term view of changes to emissions.

"Good annual data only starts from 1990, which is the reference year of the Kyoto Protocol and why the Government started the good quality data then," Dr Canadell said.
Emissions per capita have fallen 37 per cent since 1990.
However, Dr Canadell added:

"Given Ms Vanstone's statement is present tense, I disagree [that emissions are falling]. According to the data, emissions have been going up since 2013, with ups and downs, and, if anything, accelerating recently."

Links

• Department of the Environment and Energy, Quarterly Update of Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory for June 2018, November, 2018
• Department of the Environment and Energy, Quarterly Update of Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory for June 2018 - data sources, November, 2018
  
• Department of the Environment and Energy, Greenhouse gas measurement
  
• The Hon. Melissa Price MP, Minister for the Environment, June Quarterly Update of Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory released, 30 November, 2018
  
• ABC Radio, Australia won't increase Paris emissions targets at UN climate summit, 5 December, 2018
  
• Australian Government, Australia's 2030 climate change target, 2015

Australia’s Carbon Emissions Highest On Record, Data Shows

The Guardian - Lisa Cox

If emissions continue at current rate, Australia will miss Paris target by 1.1bn tonnes, Ndevr Environmental predicts

The Bluescope steel works at Port Kembla, Wollongong. Australia is still on track to miss its Paris target of a 26%-28% cut to carbon emissions on 2005 levels by 2030. The latest data show emissions are again the highest on record. Photograph: Ashley Cooper pics / Alamy/Alamy

Australia’s carbon emissions are again the highest on record, according to new data from the emissions-tracking organisation Ndevr Environmental.
Ndevr replicates the federal government’s national greenhouse gas inventory (NGGI) quarterly reports but releases them months ahead of the official data.
Data it has produced for the year up to September 2018 shows Australia is still on track to miss its Paris target of a 26%-28% cut to emissions on 2005 levels by 2030.
Matt Drum, the managing director of Ndevr, said if emissions continued at their current rate, Australia would miss the target by a cumulative 1.1bn tonnes.
When excluding unreliable land use data, Australia’s emissions for the year to September reached 558.3m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, an all-time high.
Land use data refers to emissions from activities such as land clearing and forest management, as well as removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through activities such as reforestation.
Ndevr excludes land use data because the methodology the government uses to calculate these figures is opaque and there have been questions about whether the scale of land-clearing in Queensland is being accurately represented.

“There’s still no policy in place to ratchet them down which is why they’re increasing,” Drum said.
Electricity sector emissions were stable, but fugitive emissions, and emissions from stationary energy and transport are all still trending sharply upwards.

Release of the report comes as the environment minister, Melissa Price, addressed global COP24 climate change talks in Katowice, Poland.
Both the Coalition government and Labor have not ruled out using controversial carryover credits from the Kyoto protocol to help meet Australia’s obligations under the Paris agreement.
Labor has promised that if it wins the election it will increase Australia’s target to 45% on 2005 levels, in line with recommendations from the independent Climate Change Authority.
Ndevr’s analysis said this would require a reduction of 197.1m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent based on current emissions levels, which would be equal to taking 75m cars off the road for a year.
In comparison, the Coalition’s emission reduction target would require an 80.8m tonne reduction.
Breaking up Labor’s target across sectors, Ndever suggests a range of reductions will be necessary in several industries, including 61.2m tonnes from the electricity sector, 33.4m tonnes from the stationary energy sector, 23.7m tonnes from agriculture and 34.2m tonnes from transport.
“If Labor come into government we can’t afford a policy vacuum,” Drum said. “It’s looking grim. We need policy levers and we need them quickly.”
Drum said the need for action was so urgent there would be no time for a full redesign of policy if there was a change of government.
Instead, he said existing policies, such as the safeguard mechanism, should be amended.
“They need to utilise existing policy like the safeguard mechanism and tweak it so it achieves what it is intended to achieve, which is reduce emissions,” he said.
On Thursday, the Greens environment spokesperson, Sarah Hanson-Young, said Australia was using “creative emissions accounting” to try to meet its Paris targets.
“Counting Kyoto credit towards Paris cheats our environment and the rest of the world,” she said.
“Our emissions are going up, yet our environment minister is telling the world we are doing our bit to meet our Paris targets.”

Links

• Australia turns back on allies as it refuses to cut emissions above Paris pledge
• Labor won't rule out using 'accounting tricks' to meet emissions reduction targets
• PM claims Australia will meet Paris target 'in a canter' despite emissions climbing
• Electricity retailers could defer emissions reductions under Coalition plan
• Australia's greenhouse gas emissions highest on record
• Coalition balks on Finkel target but will unveil energy and emissions policy
• Tony Abbott's climate frolic is strange and sad – and all about politics
• Renewable energy spike led to sharp drop in emissions in Australia, study shows
• Shorten fails to specify cost of Labor's renewables policy when asked four times

Australia To Miss 2030 Emissions Target By Massive Margin

Fairfax - Eryk Bagshaw

Australia is set to fall significantly short of its Paris climate change targets, undermining claims by the Morrison government that the economy will meet its international obligations "in a canter."
Official figures released by the Department of Environment and Energy on Friday show that on current trends Australia will only reach an emission reduction target of 7 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, a massive 19 percentage points or two thirds of the way short of the minimum target mandated by the Paris agreement.
But the government will argue that under UN accounting rules, Australia is eligible to carry forward credit for targets it has met since 2008 - a move ruled out by Britain, Germany and New Zealand - slashing in half the emissions reductions required to meet our international obligations.

Environment Minister Melissa Price. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

Hours after the release of the figures Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed the government would carry forward the credits and said the "significant progress highlights Australia is going to meet our 2030 target in a canter".
"The suite of policies our government has put in place support the environment while also delivering on our plan for a stronger economy," he said.
Up until last week, neither the Coalition nor Labor would rule out counting Australia's expected credits from beating its 2020 goal under the Kyoto Protocol against its 2030 Paris pledge.
Greens climate change spokesman Adam Bandt accused the government of "cooking the books" and shirking their environmental obligations.
"Because they can't reduce emissions, the government is resorting to dodgy accounting to meet our measly Paris targets," he said.
The new figures, released on the Friday before Christmas, show Australia is on track to beat its Kyoto commitments for 2020 by at least 240 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.
But a boom in LNG production, a population driven transport surge and an increase in beef production means it would fall short of the 2030 target by as much as 695 million tonnes on current projections.
Barring international objections to the Morrison government's decision, the UN accounting rules are expected to halve that task, with the 26 to 28 per cent target effectively turning into a 15 per cent cut on 2005 levels.
Environment Minister Melissa Price said the figures were a "great result for the environment".
"We have over-achieved on our 2020 target and are well on our way to meeting our commitment to the Paris Agreement 2030 target, all while maintaining a strong economy," she said.
The electricity sector has led the 73 million tonnes in projected reductions since the 2017 report, with an increase in demand from a growing population is expected to be met by continued growth in rooftop solar and thermal generation.

Still way off target
Australia’s 2018 emissions trends compared with 2017 projections.

Source: Department of Environment, December 2018

The reductions mean emissions from the national electricity market are on track to be 26 per cent below 2005 levels - a claim frequently made by Mr Morrison and Energy Minister Angus Taylor. Electricity only accounts for 34 per cent of Australia’s emissions, with transport and stationary energy accounting for 19 per cent and agriculture 13 per cent.
"There is no electricity emissions target in Australian or international law," said the Australian Conservation Foundation’s economics program manager, Matt Rose.
"Australia has an economy-wide 2030 goal that takes in electricity, transport, heavy industry and other sectors."
The report shows the drought affecting much of the east coast will restrict agriculture activity, leading to a short-term 1 per cent drop in emissions, mostly from fewer cows emitting methane gas.
The fall is only expected to be temporary as grain-fed cows increasingly replace pasture-based cows.
"The projections have accounted for an assumed increase in grain-fed beef cattle in feedlots due to these cattle being less susceptible to drought," the department's report said.
"Grain fed cattle are more emissions intensive, due to increased energy intake and increased concentration of manure in feedlots."
Minerals Council chief executive Tania Constable said addressing climate change required a diverse future energy mix that balances affordability, reliability and emissions reduction.
"This is why a measured response is critical to reducing greenhouse emissions in a way which does not damage the economy, destroy jobs and hurt Australian businesses and families," she said.
Environmental experts have warned that the 26 to 28 per cent reduction target still won't be enough to keep the world from warming by more than 2 degrees by the middle of the century.
Labor will take its policy of a 45 per cent reduction target on 2005 levels by 2030 to the next election.
"It is clear the Liberals are burying their heads in the sand and ignoring the vast majority of Australians who are crying out for desperate action on climate change," said Labor's climate spokesman Mark Butler.
The government claims a 45 per cent target will hurt workers and businesses.

Links

• Australia to miss 2030 emissions targets by vast margin, Coalition's projections reveal 
• Australia projected to miss emissions reduction target set out in Paris Agreement
• 'Fake action': Australia's secret path to hitting Paris climate goals
• Australia’s carbon emissions highest on record, data shows 
• Australia turns back on allies as it refuses to cut emissions above Paris pledge 
• Australia isn't on track to meet its 2030 emissions target, UN report says 
• Climate 'culture war' will doom Australia to fail on emissions targets, Labor says 
• How Australia bungled climate policy to create a decade of disappointment 
• Renewable energy spike led to sharp drop in emissions in Australia, study shows 
• Australia's greenhouse gas emissions are rising and forecast to miss 2030 target 
• Australia needs two emissions trading schemes, Climate Change Authority says 
• This is what happens to Australia if we don’t act

Australia Experiencing More Heat, Longer Fire Seasons And Rising Oceans

The Guardian - Lisa Cox

State of the climate report points to a long-term increase in the frequency of extreme heat events, fire weather and drought

Australia’s fire seasons are longer and more severe, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO’s state of the climate report has found. Photograph: Qfes Media/PR image

Australia is experiencing more extreme heat, longer fire seasons, rising oceans and more marine heatwaves consistent with a changing climate, according to the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO’s state of the climate report.
The report, published every two years, measures the long-term variability and trends observed in Australia’s climate.
The 2018 report shows that Australia’s long-term warming trend is continuing, with the climate warming by just over 1C since 1910 when records began.
That warming is contributing to a long-term increase in the frequency of extreme heat events, fire weather and drought.
“Australia is already experiencing climate change now and there are impacts being experienced or felt across many communities and across many sectors,” said Helen Cleugh, the director of the CSIRO’s climate science centre.

The report’s key findings include:

1. Australia’s fire seasons have lengthened and become more severe. In some parts of the country, the season has been extended by months.
2. The number of extreme heat days continues to trend upward.
3. There has been a shift to drier conditions in south-eastern and south-western Australia in the months from April to October.
4. Rainfall across northern Australia has increased since the 1970s, particularly during the tropical wet season in north-western Australia.
5. Oceans around Australia have warmed by about 1C since 1910, which is leading to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves that affect marine life such as corals.
6. Sea levels around Australia have risen by more than 20cm since records began and the rate of sea level rise is accelerating.
7. There has been a 30% increase in the acidity of Australian oceans since the 1800s and the current rate of change “is ten times faster than at any time in the past 300 million years”.

Karl Braganza, the bureau of meteorology’s manager of climate monitoring, said the increase in average temperature was having an impact on the frequency or amount of extremes Australia experienced in any given year.

“In general there’s been around a five-fold increase in extreme heat and that is consistent whether you look at monthly temperatures, day time temperatures or night time temperatures,” he said.

Annual mean temperature anomaly, Australia

Temperature anomaly is the difference between the average temperature from 1961–1990 and the average temperature in a given year. Guardian graphic | Source: Bureau of Meteorology

He said there had been a reduction in rainfall of 20% in south-western Australia and in some places that was as high as 26%. In south-eastern Australia, April to October rainfall had fallen by 11%.

The report also highlights an increase in the number of extreme fire danger days in many parts of Australia, particularly in southern and eastern Australia.

Extreme heat days per year in Australia

Number of days each year where the Australian area-averaged daily mean temperature is extreme. Extreme days are those above the 99th percentile of each month from the years 1910–2017 Source: State of the Climate report

Braganza said there was a “clear shift” towards a lengthened fire season, more fire weather during that season and an increase in its severity.
“Often the worst fire weather occurs when you’ve had long-term drought, long-term above-average temperatures, maybe a short-term heatwave and then the meteorology that’s consistent with severe fire weather and the ability for fire to spread,” he said.
“It’s those types of compound events that are going to be most challenging going forward in terms of adapting to climate change in Australia.”

Change in fire weather conditions

Trends from 1978 to 2017 in the annual (July to June) sum of the daily Forest Fire Danger Index — an indicator of the severity of fire weather conditions. Positive trends, shown in the yellow to red colours, are indicative of an increasing length and intensity of the fire weather season. Source: State of the Climate report

David Cazzulino, the Great Barrier Reef campaigner for the Australian Marine Conservation Society, said the report confirmed what many Australians already knew about the rising risks of climate change.
“The big line around oceans warming one degree since 1910 is a huge wake-up call,” he said.
“It’s undeniable that warming oceans lead to more marine heatwaves, coral bleaching and coral mortality.”
He said the impact of climate change on the Great Barrier Reef, and climate change policy generally, would be a key campaign issue ahead of the 2019 federal election.
“We are running out of time to keep warming to a safe degree for the reef to have a future,” Cazzulino said.

Links

• Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO fifth biennial State of the Climate report (pdf)
• Report at a glance
• Future climate
• Australia’s changing climate - temperature
• Australia’s changing climate - rainfall
• Oceans
• State Of The Climate 2018: Bureau Of Meteorology And CSIRO
• 'Greater Warming': Different Species Under Threat
• State of the Climate: Thank goodness for ocean sinks currently holding more warming extremes at bay
• State of the Climate 2018: Behind the science—climate extremes (video)
• State of the Climate 2018: Behind the science—ocean temperatures and heat content (video)
• State of the Climate 2016: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO
• State of the Climate 2014
• State of the Climate 2012
• State of the Climate 2010

State Of The Climate 2018: Bureau Of Meteorology And CSIRO

The Conversation - Michael Grose | Lynette Bettio

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO have released their fifth biennial State of the Climate report.

Fire danger conditions are worsening in many areas of Australia. AAP Image/David Crosling

State of the Climate 2018 is the latest biennial snapshot of climate change in Australia. It focuses on observed long-term trends that are happening now and are likely to continue into the near future, as well as significant climate events that have occurred over the past two years. These changes are described through the latest observations from CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology marine, atmospheric and terrestrial monitoring programs.
The report also summarises the latest climate research from Australia and around the world. This will help inform a range of economic, environmental and social risk assessments and responses by government, industry and communities.
Multiple lines of evidence show the climate system changing in ways that are discernible from natural variability, and consistent with a human influence on climate. These changes are having an impact on our natural and built environment.
In particular, climate change is being felt through an increase in the frequency and severity of high-impact weather events such as heatwaves, extreme fire weather conditions, coastal inundation and marine heatwaves. These trends are projected to continue.



Some of the report’s major findings are described below.

Passing major milestones
Australia’s average air temperature has warmed by just over 1℃ since national records began in 1910. Oceans around Australia have also warmed by around 1℃ since 1910.

Annual mean temperature over Australia and the seas surrounding Australia. Bureau of Meteorology. Author provided

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are rising globally. Emissions from the burning of fossil fuels continue to increase, and are the main contributor to the rise in CO₂, with some contribution from changes in land use.
Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations measured at Cape Grim, Tasmania (one of three main global measuring stations, alongside Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and Nunavut, Canada), have persisted at levels above 400 parts per million (ppm) since 2016. What’s more, the combined concentration of all greenhouse gases exceeded the equivalent of 500 ppm CO₂ in mid-2018. These milestones haven’t been crossed for at least 800,000 years, and likely 2 million years.

Changes in the atmosphere and land
Australia’s warming trend has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. For example, very high monthly maximum temperatures that used to occur around 2% of the time (based on the average for 1951–80) now happen about 12% of the time (2003–17).
Other elements of Australia’s climate have also shown long-term changes. New analysis techniques now provide a more detailed picture of changes to fire weather through time. The annual total of daily values of the Forest Fire Danger Index is increasing over large areas of Australia. Most regions also saw an increase in the most extreme 10% of fire weather days, and fire seasons have lengthened.
Rainfall in April–October has been steadily decreasing in Western Australia’s Southwest, and has decreased since the 1990s in southeast Australia. In contrast, rainfall has increased in parts of northern Australia since the 1970s.
The observed long-term reduction in rainfall across southern Australia has led to even greater reductions in streamflow. Long-term average streamflow has decreased in most regions of southern Australia, and increased in regions of northern Australia.
A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and this is an important driver of the observed increase in the intensity of short-duration rainfall, sometimes linked to flash flooding. Southern Australia is projected to experience decreases in average rainfall and more time spent in drought. Meanwhile, most of the country can expect an increase in rainfall intensity.
Historically, significant weather and climate events are often the result of the combined influence of several extreme factors at once. Higher temperatures during periods of below-average rainfall, for instance, can exacerbate drought conditions. Temperature, dryness and wind come together to create dangerous bushfire conditions.

Trend in the annual sum of Forest Fire Danger Index, 1978–2017. Bureau of Meteorology, Author provided

Changes in the ocean
The warming in Australia’s oceans has contributed to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves – defined as periods when sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. The world’s oceans are a crucial moderator of the climate, taking up more than 90% of the extra heat in the system – most of it is absorbed by the Southern Ocean.
Sea levels continue to rise through the combined effects of warming oceans and melting ice from land-based glaciers and ice sheets. Global average sea level has risen by more than 20cm since 1880, but the rate varies from place to place. About 25% of the CO₂ emitted by human activity diffuses into the oceans, making them more acidic in the process.
The past two years, 2016 and 2017, have seen back-to-back bleaching events in parts of the Great Barrier Reef, linked to marine heatwave events. These changes are very likely linked to warming oceans, and primarily driven by the human influence on the climate.

Global sea level change from 1880 estimated from tide gauges and satellites. CSIRO, Author provided

Well-established scientific theory and climate model studies both show that the warming would largely not have occurred without the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. In addition, the current increase in temperatures accords with projections made nearly 30 years ago. Warming is projected to continue into the future as the effect of past emissions continue, and more greenhouse gases are emitted. Australia is projected to experience increases in sea and air temperatures, with more hot days and marine heatwaves, and fewer cool extremes.
It takes time for the climate system to warm in response to increases in greenhouse gases, and the historical emissions over the past century have locked in some warming over the next two decades, regardless of any changes we might make to global emissions in that period. However, by the mid-21st century, higher ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to greater warming and associated impacts, and reducing emissions will lead to less warming and fewer associated impacts.

Australian average annual temperature 1861-1900 period in observations and global climate models. CSIRO, Author provided

 Links

• Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO fifth biennial State of the Climate report (pdf)
• Report at a glance
• Future climate
• Australia’s changing climate - temperature
• Australia’s changing climate - rainfall
• Oceans
• 'Greater Warming': Different Species Under Threat
• Australia Experiencing More Heat, Longer Fire Seasons And Rising Oceans
• State of the Climate: Thank goodness for ocean sinks currently holding more warming extremes at bay
• State of the Climate 2018: Behind the science—climate extremes (video)
• State of the Climate 2018: Behind the science—ocean temperatures and heat content (video)
• State of the Climate 2016: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO
• State of the Climate 2014
• State of the Climate 2012
• State of the Climate 2010

'Greater Warming': Different Species Under Threat

Fairfax - Ben Weir

Entire ecosystems are under threat due to warming oceans with parts of the Australian coast stretching from Sydney to Adelaide experiencing the most stress, experts warn.
Eight of the 10 warmest years of sea surface temperatures have been recorded since 2010 contributing to coral bleaching, oceans acidifying and altering the habitats of different species, a joint study by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has found.
"The warming has been most noticeable, particularly around the south-east of the continent, and it's not just coral reefs that are impacted but kelp forests and commercial fisheries," the bureau's head of climate monitoring, Dr Karl Braganza, said.

Trends in sea surface temperatures in Australia from 1950 to 2017. Credit: Bureau of Meteorology

Rising CO2 levels change the pH make-up of oceans and as waters become more acidic this impacts everything from plankton to coral, the study found.
“There has been a southwards migration of subtropical and tropical fish species, down the east coast of Australia associated with this warming,” Dr Braganza said.
Further north, rising temperatures have contributed to coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 and 2017, with parts experiencing "thermal stress" and potentially the loss of many types of coral in future heatwaves.

Bleaching along the Great Barrier Reef is a common sight for divers. Credit: XL Catlin Seaview Survey

“In February to May 2016, the bleaching was associated with some of the warmest sea surface temperatures ever recorded,” Dr Braganza said.
Sea levels globally have also increased around 3 centimetres per decade in recent years, with rises in northern and south-east Australia higher than the average around the world. (See chart below)
“Rising sea levels have implications for impacts on infrastructure in our coastal regions and coastal erosions so it is important to think about what that looks like around Australia,” CSIRO director of climate change, Dr Helen Cleugh said.

The rate of sea level rises around Australia by satellite observations from 1993 to 2017. Credit: CSIRO

Rising ocean temperatures and levels impact climate change more broadly with around 90 per cent of the extra energy created by greenhouse gases stored in the ocean.
“Oceans play a really important role in modulating the rate and pace of our changing climate,” Dr Cleugh said.
The State of the Climate 2018 report, to be released on Thursday, also predicts a longer fire danger season in south-eastern areas due to rising temperatures. While other regions of the country will experience more time in drought.

Fire weather conditions are worsening, particularly in the south and east of the country.
Credit: Bureau of Meteorology

"The amount of climate change expected in the next decade or so is similar under all plausible global emission pathways, however by the mid-21st century higher ongoing emissions will lead to greater warming," the report's summary said.
The fifth annual report comes after recent UN climate talks in Poland ended with an agreement to increase transparency of national emissions-reduction pledges, but failed to deal with how to raise aid for developing nations and standard accounting rules for carbon credits.

Links

• Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO fifth biennial State of the Climate report (pdf)
• Report at a glance
• Future climate
• Australia’s changing climate - temperature
• Australia’s changing climate - rainfall
• Oceans
• State Of The Climate 2018: Bureau Of Meteorology And CSIRO
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Federal Government Must End Its ‘Climate Wars’, NSW Energy Minister Says

The Guardian - Australian Associated Press

Don Harwin urges Coalition to ‘put science, economics and engineering ahead of ideology’

NSW energy minister Don Harwin says the Morrison government is out of touch on climate and energy policy. Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/AAP 

The New South Wales energy minister, Don Harwin, wants the federal government to end its “climate wars” and start reducing emissions, ahead of a meeting with his colleagues from across Australia.
But the Victorian energy minister, Lily D’Ambrosio, says the federal coalition is “beyond hope” on the issue and that NSW is calling them out too late.
In an opinion piece published in the Australian Financial Review, Harwin suggested the federal Liberal-National coalition is out of touch on energy and climate policy.
“We recognise that climate change is a scientific fact,” Hawin wrote in the piece published on Wednesday.
“It is the responsibility of all governments to address greenhouse gas emissions into the future.
“We need to end the “climate wars” and put science, economics and engineering ahead of ideology.”


Australia's climate wars: a decade of dithering

He will come face-to-face with the federal energy minister, Angus Taylor, and his counterparts from most other states and territories at a Council of Australian Governments meeting on Wednesday.
Taylor is hoping to secure agreement at the Adelaide gathering on a policy aimed at improving the reliability of the energy grid by encouraging investment in new generation.
“I look forward to working with my Coag energy council colleagues to bring power prices down while ensuring the reliability of the grid,” Taylor said.
But Harwin stressed that such energy policies should be matched with efforts to grapple with climate change.
“The NSW government has consistently made it clear that we believe that there should be an integration of climate and energy policy,” he said.
The Liberal-National NSW government announced a target in 2016 to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Harwin said he will push on Wednesday for the Energy Security Board to provide policy options to ministers to achieve that vision.
D’Ambrosio will not be at the meeting but says she expects the federal government will uphold its poor performance on the issue.
“We could possibly say they’re beyond hope. They have still no plan, still no policy, on energy and climate change,” she told reporters in Melbourne.
The discussion comes after the federal government dumped its flagship energy policy – the National Energy Guarantee – in August.
It was aimed at dealing with energy prices, reliability and emissions, but conservatives in the coalition took issue with its emissions targets, with their distaste contributing to Malcolm Turnbull’s downfall.
Harwin said the government may have abandoned the policy but it must still “confront the facts”.
“The market and industry is looking for certainty on emissions, and policy uncertainty will lead to higher wholesale prices and delayed investment decisions,” he said.

Links

• NSW Excoriates Federal Coalition Over Blocking Of Emissions Reduction Vote
• NSW can be circuit-breaker on stalled national energy policy
• Time to consider hydrogen, the new clean energy carrier on the block
• Australia’s carbon emissions highest on record, data shows
• Labor to keep national energy guarantee in bid for climate truce
• 'Investors are mostly concerned about political risks': energy minister Angus Taylor – full interview
• Australia will honour Paris climate agreement, Simon Birmingham says
• Victoria toughens negotiating stance on national energy guarantee
• Most Australians want more renewables to help lower power prices – poll
• ACT under pressure to 'succumb to politics' of energy guarantee, minister says