Global Warming Of Oceans Equivalent To An Atomic Bomb Per Second

The Guardian - Damian Carrington

Seas absorb 90% of climate change’s energy as new research reveals vast heating over past 150 years

An Argo float is deployed into the ocean. Photograph: CSIRO

Global warming has heated the oceans by the equivalent of one atomic bomb explosion per second for the past 150 years, according to analysis of new research.
More than 90% of the heat trapped by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions has been absorbed by the seas, with just a few per cent heating the air, land and ice caps respectively. The vast amount of energy being added to the oceans drives sea-level rise and enables hurricanes and typhoons to become more intense.
Much of the heat has been stored in the ocean depths but measurements here only began in recent decades and existing estimates of the total heat the oceans have absorbed stretch back only to about 1950. The new work extends that back to 1871. Scientists have said that understanding past changes in ocean heat was critical for predicting the future impact of climate change.
A Guardian calculation found the average heating across that 150-year period was equivalent to about 1.5 Hiroshima-size atomic bombs per second. But the heating has accelerated over that time as carbon emissions have risen, and was now the equivalent of between three and six atomic bombs per second.
“I try not to make this type of calculation, simply because I find it worrisome,” said Prof Laure Zanna, at the University of Oxford, who led the new research. “We usually try to compare the heating to [human] energy use, to make it less scary.”

She added: “But obviously, we are putting a lot of excess energy into the climate system and a lot of that ends up in the ocean,. There is no doubt.” The total heat taken up by the oceans over the past 150 years was about 1,000 times the annual energy use of the entire global population.
The research has been published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and combined measurements of the surface temperature of the ocean since 1871 with computer models of ocean circulation.
Prof Samar Khatiwala, also at the University of Oxford and part of the team, said: “Our approach is akin to ‘painting’ different bits of the ocean surface with dyes of different colours and monitoring how they spread into the interior over time. If we know what the sea surface temperature anomaly was in 1871 in the North Atlantic Ocean we can figure out how much it contributes to the warming in, say, the deep Indian Ocean in 2018.”
Rising sea level has been among the most dangerous long-term impacts of climate change, threatening billions of people living in coastal cities, and estimating future rises is vital in preparing defences. Some of the rise comes from the melting of land-bound ice in Greenland and elsewhere, but another major factor has been the physical expansion of water as it gets warmer.
However, the seas do not warm uniformly as ocean currents transport heat around the world. Reconstructing the amount of heat absorbed by the oceans over the past 150 years is important as it provides a baseline. In the Atlantic, for example, the team found that half the rise seen since 1971 at low and middle latitudes resulted from heat transported into the region by currents.
The new work would help researchers make better predictions of sea-level rise for different regions in the future. “Future changes in ocean transport could have severe consequences for regional sea-level rise and the risk of coastal flooding,” the researchers said. “Understanding ocean heat change and the role of circulation in shaping the patterns of warming remain key to predicting global and regional climate change and sea-level rise.”
Dana Nuccitelli, an environmental scientist who was not involved in the new research, said: “The ocean heating rate has increased as global warming has accelerated, and the value is somewhere between roughly three to six Hiroshima bombs per second in recent decades, depending on which dataset and which timeframe is used. This new study estimates the ocean heating rate at about three Hiroshima bombs per second for the period of 1990 to 2015, which is on the low end of other estimates.”

Links

• Sea levels may rise more rapidly due to Greenland ice melt
• Gulf Stream current at its weakest in 1,600 years, studies show
• Finding Nemo? We may be losing him, says climate study
• 'Supreme wake-up call': Prince Charles urges action on ocean pollution
• Walruses face 'death sentence' as Trump administration fails to list them as endangered
• Could techno-fixes and gene therapies really save the world’s coral?
• Melting Arctic ice cap falls to well below average
• The Florida Keys are the canaries in the climate-change coalmine
• Fish under threat from ocean oxygen depletion, finds study
• Scientists to repeat 19th-century ship's crossing of polar ice cap

Climate Triage: Swift Action Is Required To Save Humanity From Dangerous Global Warming

Forbes - Robbie Orvis

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports we have 12 years to dramatically cut emissions to avoid locking in dangerous global warming, but the World Meteorological Organization announced atmospheric emissions are higher than at any point in the past 3-5 million years and emissions grew again in 2018 after several years of zero growth.
After the COP24 climate summit resulted in only moderate outcomes, there’s no doubt we must act swiftly on climate change – we’re now in a state of climate triage.

A raging wildfire consumes the forest next to Highway 63 twenty four kilometres south of Fort McMurray Saturday, May 7, 2016. The "Beast", as it was called by Wood Buffalo fire chief Darby Allen, is a 1500 square kilometre inferno that has prompted the mass evacuation of nearly 90,000 people from the northern Alberta city. (photograph by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta) Flickr via Premier of Alberta

Climate change’s damages to our economy are mounting - Hurricanes Michael and Florence, along with two California wildfires, cost roughly $45 billion in 2018 - and each passing day we fail to act makes preventing dangerous global warming much more difficult.
World leaders must assume the role of an emergency room doctor trying to save a patient’s life: Identify the worst threat and take swift action to fix the gravest injuries. For climate, this means identifying where the greatest emissions are coming from and then rapidly decarbonizing those sources.

Assessing the emissions damage
Just like an ER doctor would work fast to identify her patient’s worst injury and stop the bleeding, world leaders must start climate triage by first understanding where the greatest emissions are coming from and where to focus our decarbonization efforts.
Nearly 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from the top 20 emitting countries, so targeting emissions in these 20 countries is the largest and fastest opportunity to reduce emissions, as outlined in Designing Climate Solutions.

Emissions vary widely in the top 20 emitting countries. Energy Innovation

But knowing which countries create the most emissions is not enough; we must identify the biggest sources of emissions. Emissions come from a relatively small set of sources: Burning coal, natural gas, and oil in power plants; burning fossil fuels for electricity and heat in industry; burning oil in car, bus, and truck engines; and burning natural gas, oil, and coal in buildings for heat, cooking, and lighting.
Industrial process emissions, for example methane leaked from natural gas pipes and carbon dioxide (CO₂) released in cement manufacturing chemical processes, are surprisingly significant sources of emissions. Finally, land use emissions are significant in particular countries, making deforestation, which reduces the ability of forests to absorb and store CO₂, an important area to focus on in those countries.

CO2e emissions are primarily from energy and industrial processes. Energy Innovation

World leaders can stop the bleeding to save their patient: In the 20 largest-emitting countries, reduce fossil fuel consumption in power plants, factories, automobiles, and buildings; and cut industrial process emissions.

An action plan for saving the patient
In climate triage, just like a well-trained ER doctor knows how to address injuries, we know how to tackle emissions from each of these sources. In the power sector, we must push more zero-carbon technologies onto the grid, maintain the ones we already have, and retire fossil fuel power plants. The falling costs of wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries mean building new clean energy is cheaper than running existing coal generation in many parts of the world, putting this future in sight.
In industry, we must improve the efficiency of equipment and switch from coal or oil for power and heat to natural gas (or better yet, electricity where possible). Pueblo, Colorado’s EVRAZ steel mill utilizes electric arc furnaces to create heat for steelmaking by relying on electricity rather than coal or gas for heat, thereby avoiding emissions. Reducing process emissions is also a top priority as those emissions often contain potent greenhouse gases much worse for climate change than CO₂.
In the transportation sector, vehicles must consume much less petroleum and switch to low- or zero-carbon fuels like electricity and biofuels. By 2025, the falling costs of electric vehicles will be cheaper than internal combustion engines, helping accelerate the transition to a low-carbon transportation fleet. Similarly, electric buses are nearing cost-competiveness with fossil fuels, empowering zero-carbon public transport while saving cities millions of dollars in maintenance and fuel costs - the city of Shenzhen, China recently replaced its entire fleet of 16,000 diesel buses with electric ones.
Buildings also have significant energy efficiency potential. Better-insulated buildings reduce demand for energy services like heating and cooling, while more efficient equipment further cuts energy demand. The savings from these improvements can be huge, and in many cases pay for themselves over a short time period. Over time, buildings must also become largely electrified.

Climate triage through fast policy action
Climate triage can tackle climate change by decarbonizing the power, industry, transportation, and buildings sectors. Fortunately, decades of global experience with climate and energy policy has proven which policies drive down emissions fastest and cheapest. A small set of well-designed, stringently set policies can put the world on a path to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Policy contributions to meeting the 2°C global warming target. (Analysis done using data with permission from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) Energy Innovation

In the power sector, renewable portfolio standards and feed-in tariffs can push more renewables onto the grid while helping reduce costs for new technologies. Innovative approaches to re-financing power plants and utility regulation can ensure we invest intelligently in the grid of the future while managing early retirement of uneconomic fossil power plants. Together these power sector policies can contribute 21% of necessary emissions reductions.
In industry, strong efficiency standards for motors, boilers, and other equipment can dramatically cut energy and emissions. Better control of process emissions, for example by capturing leaking methane from landfills and natural gas systems or through alternative lower-carbon processes like those being implemented in the iron and steel industry can reduce non-energy emissions. Together, these can deliver 27% of necessary emissions reductions.
In transportation, fuel economy standards and incentives can improve new vehicle efficiency while cutting consumer costs by lowering oil expenditures. New electric vehicle sales mandates, like the 5 million zero-emissions vehicle goal followed by California and nine other states, can help deploy more zero carbon cars, buses, and trucks onto our roads.  Improving urban design through better access to urban transit, improved zoning, and so on, also cuts emissions. Altogether, transportation sector policies can provide 7% of necessary emissions reductions.

Nissan Leaf electric vehicles. Energy Innovation

And in buildings, strong building codes and appliance standards specifying minimum insulation and efficiency requirements can dramatically lower the amount of energy needed to heat, cool, and power our homes – and can contribute 5% of necessary emissions reductions.

A hopeful outlook for tackling climate change
Make no mistake: the task ahead of us is daunting. Climate triage means we must cut our largest emissions and transition to a low-carbon economy over the next decade, and we must act fast.
Getting there will require targeted interventions to reduce the biggest emission sources in the top 20 emitting countries. We have the technology and policy to achieve this goal today. What we need now is rapid implementation of these policies, where it counts.

Links

• We have 12 years to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN
• Climate-heating greenhouse gases at record levels, says UN
• ‘We are in trouble.’ Global carbon emissions reached a record high in 2018.
• We Have A Decade To Prevent Dangerous Climate Change: These 10 Policies Can Limit Warming To 2°C
• Policy Solutions
• Top Policies
• Plunging Prices Mean Building New Renewable Energy Is Cheaper Than Running Existing Coal
• How big is the energy efficiency resource?

Katharine Hayhoe: 'A Thermometer Is Not Liberal Or Conservative'

The Guardian - Jonathan Watts

The award-winning atmospheric scientist on the urgency of the climate crisis and why people are her biggest hope

Katharine Hayhoe: ‘Fear is a short-term spur to action, but to make changes over the long term, we must have hope.’ Photograph: Randal Ford 

Katharine Hayhoe is an atmospheric scientist and director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. She has contributed to more than 125 scientific papers and won numerous prizes for her science communication work. In 2018 she was a contributor to the US National Climate Assessment and was awarded the Stephen H Schneider award for outstanding climate science communication.

Interview

In 2018, we have seen forest fires in the Arctic circle; record high temperatures in parts of Australia, Africa and the US; floods in India; and devastating droughts in South Africa and Argentina. Is this a turning point?
This year has hit home how climate change loads the dice against us by taking naturally occurring weather events and amplifying them. We now have attribution studies that show how much more likely or stronger extreme weather events have become as a result of human emissions. For example, wildfires in the western US now burn nearly twice the area they would without climate change, and almost 40% more rain fell during Hurricane Harvey than would have otherwise. So we are really feeling the impacts and know how much humanity is responsible.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its 1.5C report in October. A month later, the US federal government’s climate assessment – to which you contributed – came out. How did these two massive studies move our understanding along? 
These assessments are important because there is a Schrödinger’s Cat element to studying climate impacts. The act of observing affects the outcome. If people aren’t aware of what is happening, why would anyone change? Assessments like these provide us with a vision of the future if we continue on our current pathway, and by doing so they address the most widespread and dangerous myth that the largest number of us have bought into: not that the science isn’t real, but rather that climate change doesn’t matter to me personally.

Compared to past studies, how much media attention did these reports receive?
There was significant coverage but a lot of media survive by generating controversy so they bring on opposing voices rather than explaining the scientific facts. Climate change shouldn’t be fodder for commentators who represent the interests of the fossil fuel industry by muddying the science. As a human and a scientist, this focus on controversy is frustrating. A thermometer is not liberal or conservative.

Fossil fuels have brought us many benefits ... but the solution to our current crisis is to stop using them. That is scary

Are there any signs that public opinion is shifting in the US and elsewhere?
We haven’t yet reached the tipping point to motivate sufficient action. But there has been a change. Ten years ago, few people felt personally affected by climate change. It seemed very distant. Today, most people can point to a specific way climate affects their daily lives. This is important because the three key steps to action are accepting that climate change is real, recognising it affects us, and being motivated to do something to fix it. Opinion polls in the US show 70% of people agree the climate is changing, but a majority still say it won’t affect them.

Trump was dismissive of these reports and has repeatedly tried to deny any link between climate change and extreme weather. What are the politics behind this denial?
It’s a vicious cycle. The more doom-filled reports the scientists release, the stronger the pushback from politicians whose power, ideology and funding depends on maintaining the status quo, and who are supported by those who fear the solutions to climate change more than they fear its impacts. Opposition to climate change is a symptom of a society that is politically polarised between those who cling to the past and those who recognise the need for a better future. Fossil fuels have brought us many benefits – and I’m grateful for their contribution to my life – but the solution to our current crisis is to stop using them. That change can be scary, especially for those with most to lose financially from this shift. If you feel threatened, the instinctive reaction is to push back.

Progress of sorts was made at the UN climate talks in Poland, though many scientists say global society is not moving fast enough. What is your take?
Progress was made in Poland as the world agreed on a rule book to implement the Paris agreement. The agreement is like a global pot luck in which every nation brings something different to the party. For some it’s soil conservation, for another wind power or carbon pricing. Poland gave us an agreed common standard on how to measure these contributions. That was progress. As scientists, we are like physicians for the planet who have been monitoring its rising fever for 80 years. We know that our lifestyle, specifically our dependence on fossil fuels is the cause of a problem that is rapidly becoming serious and in some cases even dangerous. So when we see the world dragging its heels and carbon emissions continuing to grow, we become concerned, anxious, and even frustrated. We know we aren’t changing fast enough.

On current trends, if you had to give a percentage breakdown of the likelihood of the following three outcomes by 2100, what would you give: a) keeping to 1.5C; b) keeping to 2C; c) rising above 3C; and d) overshooting 4C?
I’d put my money on a gradual bend away from a higher scenario, which is where we are now, until accumulating and worsening climate disasters eventually lead to a collective “oh shit!” moment, when people finally realise climate impacts do pose a far greater threat than the solutions. At that point, I would hope the world would suddenly ramp up its carbon reduction to the scale of a Manhattan Project or a moon race and we would finally be able to make serious progress. The multitrillion-dollar question is simply when that tipping point in opinion will come, and whether it will be too late for civilisation as we know it. I hope with all my heart that we stay under 1.5C, but my cynical brain says 3C. Perhaps the reality will be somewhere between my head and my heart at 2C.

Extinction Rebellion marching with other groups through London in December last year. Photograph: Guy Bell/Rex/Shutterstock

What is the best way out of the climate crisis? What policies would make a difference?
The most important thing is to accelerate the realisation that we have to act. This means connecting the dots to show that the impacts are not distant any more: they are here and they affect our lives. It also means talking about solutions. The technology and knowledge are there. The economics already make sense. In Texas, where I live, the biggest military base, Fort Hood, switched last year to renewables because they were cheaper than natural gas. And finally, it means weaning ourselves off fossil fuels, which is challenged by the fact that the majority of the world’s richest companies have made their money from the fossil fuel economy – so the majority of the wealth and power remains in their hands.

Are there any climate engineering schemes or trials that have potential?
One solution being discussed is the idea of deliberately geoengineering the planet to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and/or cool the planet. I believe it is important to discuss and study these technologies very thoroughly, because implementing some of them, like solar radiation management [spraying particles into the air to simulate a volcanic eruption and block some of the sunlight reaching Earth], is extremely risky. It would be like giving an experimental drug to every human on the planet before it had been tested. I’m more hopeful about smaller scale, less risky geoengineering projects that suck carbon dioxide out of the air, such as those being trialled by Climeworks to turn carbon into stone or fuel: or even massive tree-planting efforts, as in Bhutan.

What’s the role of global finance? Can money managers, shareholders and multinationals exert pressure and take positive action in ways that short-termist, vote-hungry politicians seem unable to do?
Yes! In the world we live in, money speaks loudly. Thanks to the growing divestment movement, we have seen cities, universities and entire countries, in the case of Ireland, withdrawing investments from fossil fuel assets. This isn’t only happening for ethical reasons but for practical ones as well. As clean energy continues to expand, those assets could become stranded. When money talks the world listens.

Firefighters watch as flames climb a hillside in Guinda, California, July last year. Photograph: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty Images

What are the most positive developments you have seen in the past year in the climate field?
I’m asked what gives me hope on a daily basis, and my answer is, I don’t find hope in my science, I find it in people. Over the last few years, the number of people who want to talk about and do something about climate has increased exponentially. Then, there is the unexpected leadership of organisations such as Young Evangelicals for Climate Action, RepublicEN, the Iron and Earth group – young professionals in the oil and construction industries who want to be part of the move from fossil fuels; and the take-up of renewables even in conservative states like Texas, which now gets 20% of its energy from wind and solar power.
Finally, there’s the encouraging news such as solar being the fastest-growing power source around the world, clean energy jobs growing from India to the US, and new technology being developed every year that drops the price and increases the accessibility of fossil fuel alternatives.

This year has also seen the rise of disruptive campaigning, for example Extinction Rebellion in the UK; the student strikes led by Greta Thunberg; and direct action in the US and Canada against oil pipelines. Is there a point when scientists also have to speak out more forcefully? 
We are moving in that direction. Scientists are not just disembodied brains floating in a glass jar, we are humans who want the same thing every other human wants, a safe place to live on this planet we call home. So while our work must continue to be unbiased and objective, increasingly we are raising our voices, adding to the clear message that climate change is real and humans are responsible, the impacts are serious and we must act now, if we want to avoid the worst of them.

What are the key political moments in 2019 for climate policy in the US and the world?
International talks are important but we should be looking at subnational actors because there is a lot going on at the city and corporate level. Across the US a hundred cities have committed to going 100% clean energy. Companies like Apple have already achieved that goal. In the US there’s a new climate bill with bipartisan sponsors, which is essential for legislation to succeed long-term.

Are we likely to get any respite from climate change?
(Sighs.) Climate change is a long-term trend superimposed over natural variability. There’ll be good and bad years, just like there are for a patient with a long-term illness, but it isn’t going away. To stabilise climate change, we have to eliminate our carbon emissions. And we’re still a long way away from that.

Links

• Katharine Hayhoe: Hi. I'm a climate scientist. 
• Katharine Hayhoe Reveals Surprising Ways to Talk About Climate Change
• 1,656 pages too long? Climate report coauthor Katharine Hayhoe has 3 takeaways.
• The climate change evangelist with God on her side
• The Christian climate professor bridging the gap between science and faith

A Surge Of Climate Lawsuits Targets Human Rights, Damage From Fossil Fuels

InsideCimate News - Nicholas Kusnetz

Cities, states and the fishing industry want courts to hold fossil fuel companies accountable for global warming. Others argue government inaction violates rights.

Rhode Island in 2018 became the first state to sue the fossil fuel industry over climate change, citing the growing risks from sea level rise and extreme weather. Credit: John Greim/LightRocket via Getty Images

A climate denier is in the White House, pushing policies that will boost emissions. Congress is doing nothing to stop him. So citizens and local governments who are facing the impacts of rising seas, worsening heat waves and extreme weather are increasingly looking to the courts for help.
The past year saw a surge in new lawsuits filed against fossil fuel companies, and major developments in cases pressing governments for action in the United States and abroad. And while the plaintiffs haven't secured any substantial victories in U.S. courts, they may be scoring a different victory by drawing attention to the inaction of Congress and the Executive Branch, said Michael Gerrard, faculty director at the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School.
"Lawsuits, even if unsuccessful, can help shape public opinion," he said. "Mr. Scopes lost the monkey trial, but it led to a lot more awareness about the issue of teaching evolution."
In Colombia and the Netherlands, citizens won rulings in 2018 ordering their governments to cut emissions and protect forests. By framing climate change in terms of human rights, those cases and similar ones filed in the U.S. and other countries are transforming how the courts address the issue, said Patrick Parenteau, senior counsel in the Environmental and Natural Resources Law Clinic at Vermont Law School and an informal adviser to some of the plaintiffs' lawyers.
"It's pushing the boundaries of law everywhere," he said. "Climate change is changing the law."

There are currently a couple of dozen significant lawsuits around the world that are asking courts to order actions by governments or the fossil fuel industry in response to climate change. Here's a round-up of the various approaches.

Climate Liability
What began with a handful of California cities and counties in 2017 spread across the country this past year, as New York City, Baltimore, Rhode Island and local governments in Colorado and Washington State sued fossil fuel companies.
The plaintiffs are seeking compensation to help pay the costs of protecting residents from rising seas, worsening wildfires, extreme heat and other effects of climate change. Two law firms are arguing most of these cases. They allege that energy companies knew about the dangers associated with their products, but lobbied against capping emissions anyway while sowing doubt about climate science.
In November, the West Coast's largest commercial fishing association filed a similar suit. Algal blooms tied to warming waters have led to closures of the crab fishery in recent years, and the plaintiffs are seeking compensation from the fossil fuel industry for the associated losses.

The Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen's Associations sued several fossil fuel companies, seeking damages on behalf of crab fishers and local communities hurt by climate change in California and Oregon. Credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Parenteau said it may be harder for energy companies to dismiss the case as a political stunt, a tack they've taken against the lawsuits filed by local governments.
"The 'industry versus industry' does put another spin on it," Parenteau said. "This is real cold dollars and sense."
The only substantive rulings have been dismissals of cases brought by San Francisco and Oakland—whose cases were joined—and New York City. The judges, both in federal district courts, wrote that it was ultimately up to Congress to regulate emissions, and that climate change, as a global issue, would be better addressed by diplomats and the Executive Branch than U.S. courts. The cities have appealed the rulings, and those appeals are some of the cases to watch this year.
Despite limited success so far, these liability lawsuits may continue to spread. At the annual international climate negotiations in Poland, the foreign minister of Vanuatu—a small island nation at risk of losing much of its territory to rising seas—said his country is forming a coalition to explore legal action against fossil fuel companies and governments that have supported them.
Gerrard also said that worsening natural disasters tied to climate change could prompt new lawsuits.
"It'll be interesting to see whether anybody brings climate claims in any of the lawsuits that will arise from the California wildfires or any of the multiple hurricanes we've been having every year," he said. "There might be claims that a company or a government agency should have anticipated these extreme events in designing or constructing buildings or other infrastructure."

Constitutional and Human Rights
The lawsuits filed against fossil fuel companies target one of the world's most powerful and lucrative industries. But a separate class of cases is seeking something much broader: They're arguing that governments have a legal obligation to protect their citizens from climate change.
A group of nearly 900 Dutch citizens and a nonprofit were among the first to make the claim, arguing that their government was failing to meet its own goals for emissions cuts and violating their rights in the process. In October, a Dutch appeals court upheld a lower court ruling ordering the government to cut emissions 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. The government said it will appeal the most recent decision, even as it works to meet the emissions goal.
In the U.S., a group of children and young adults who are suing the federal government were poised to go to trial in October in a similar case. The plaintiffs are trying to establish a Constitutional right to a stable climate and are seeking a court order that the government come up with a plan to phase out fossil fuels. Simply holding a trial would be a major victory for the children, but the Supreme Court put the trial on hold less than two weeks before the scheduled opening arguments. The case is now in the hands of appeals court judges with the Ninth Circuit, who will decide whether to allow a trial.
"This is the blockbuster for the U.S.," said Melissa Scanlan, director of the New Economy Law Center at Vermont Law School. "It's the first case in the U.S. that would recognize that there's a protected Constitutional right to a climate capable of supporting human life. We never thought we needed that before."

Twenty-one children and young adults are suing the federal government to force action on climate change. Their case had been scheduled for trial in October but is on hold while the Ninth Circuit Court considers a request by the Trump administration to throw the case out. Credit: Robin Loznak

Similar cases have been filed in a few state courts, too. All face long odds.
"There are very, very few judges that would be willing to push these climate issues in court," Parenteau said. "But all roads lead to the Supreme Court, and that's where it would die. There's no chance."
In Colombia, however, a nonprofit won a court order in April directing the government to develop a plan for protecting the nation's Amazon forest, which saw deforestation rates rise in recent years and, along with areas in neighboring countries, is one of the planet's largest stores of carbon.
Human rights cases are pending in Norway, Canada, Belgium and other countries. In the Philippines, the nation's Commission on Human Rights concluded an investigation into whether fossil fuel companies played a role in violating the rights of the country's citizens by knowingly contributing to climate change. The Commission will issue a report this year.

Securities Fraud
In October, New York Attorney General Barbara Underwood capped a three-year investigation into ExxonMobil by suing the company in state court, accusing it of misrepresented the financial risks that climate change poses to its business. It may be legal to lie to the public, the case effectively argues, but not to shareholders.
The lawsuit was a significant development because, unlike most of the local and state claims, it relies on a state law that gives prosecutors great powers to go after companies for financial fraud. A New York judge set a trial date for October 2019.
It wasn't the first case to charge Exxon with securities fraud,. In 2016, a shareholder filed a class action suit against the company in a Texas federal court, saying corporate officers had made false and misleading statements about how the company was assessing climate risks, artificially inflating the company's stock price. That lawsuit cleared a hurdle in August when a federal judge denied a motion by Exxon to dismiss the case.

Tried and True Tactics Remain
As cities, states and citizens press the courts to address climate change with novel legal arguments, dozens of more conventional lawsuits continue to churn too, challenging oil pipelines and coal facilities for their greenhouse gas emissions and the Trump administration as it rolls back the nation's climate regulations.
Gerrard noted that it is these traditional legal challenges that, so far, have had a greater effect on the nation's greenhouse gas emissions. Rules limiting methane emissions by the oil and gas industry, for example, remain in place for the time being despite efforts by the Trump administration to repeal them.
Legal experts say the unconventional cases, whether cities suing oil companies, children suing the government or a state suing Exxon for fraud, may face skepticism from judges, and it's far too early to say what effect they will have.
"Lots is happening, lots of boom and bang," Parenteau said. "But the carbon keeps going up and up. There you have it."

Links

• 2018 In Climate Liability: When A Trend Became A Wave
• Big Coal And Friends On Track To Shut Down Your Climate Activism
• Children Demand Climate Change Action Through Protests And Lawsuits
• 'New Weapon': Courts Offer Hope For Driving Serious Climate Action
• Vanuatu Says It May Sue Fossil Fuel Companies And Other Countries Over Climate Change
• Fossil Fuels On Trial: Where The Major Climate Change Lawsuits Stand Today
• The Forsaken Children Strike Back: 21 Young People Sue To Save Planet
• Landmark Children’s Climate Lawsuit Hits New Roadblock
• Supreme Court Refuses To Block Young People’s Climate Lawsuit Against U.S. Government
• Senior Environment Judge Brian Preston Tips Wave Of Climate Change Litigation
• New York Sues Exxon Mobil, Saying It Deceived Shareholders On Climate Change
• These Kids And Young Adults Want Their Day In Court On Climate Change
• Dutch Court Upholds Urgenda, Says Government Must Reduce Emissions
• The Trial Of The Century
• Australian Businesses Must Do More To Disclose Climate Change Risks To Investors, ASIC Says
• At '5 Minutes To Midnight', Rights Group Calls Time On Climate Change

Worst Mass Extinction Event In Earth’s History Was Caused By Global Warming Analogous To Current Climate Crisis

Mongabay - Mike Gaworecki

Bleached branching coral (Acropora sp.) at Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef. Earth’s coral reefs have been hit by successive mass bleaching events over the past few years, one of the impacts of climate change on ocean life. Photo via Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.

Summary The Permian period ended about 250 million years ago with the largest recorded mass extinction in Earth’s history, when a series of massive volcanic eruptions is believed to have triggered global climate change that ultimately wiped out 96 percent of marine species in an event known as the “Great Dying.” According to Justin Penn, a doctoral student at the University of Washington (UW), the Permian extinction can help us understand the impacts of climate change in our own current era. Penn led a team of researchers that combined models of ocean conditions and animal metabolism with paleoceanographic records to show that the Permian mass extinction was caused by rising ocean temperatures, which in turn forced the metabolism of marine animals to speed up. Increased metabolism meant increased need for oxygen, but the warmer waters could not hold enough oxygen to meet those needs, and ocean life was left gasping for breath.

New research by scientists at the United States’ University of Washington and Stanford University suggests that the most destructive mass extinction event in Earth’s ancient history was caused by global warming that left marine life unable to breathe.
The Permian period, the last period of the Paleozoic Era, ended about 250 million years ago with the largest recorded mass extinction in Earth’s history. Before the dinosaurs emerged during the Triassic period somewhere around 243 and 233 million years ago, a series of massive volcanic eruptions is believed to have triggered global climate change that ultimately led to the Permian extinction, which wiped out 96 percent of marine species in an event known as the “Great Dying.”
According to Justin Penn, a doctoral student at the University of Washington (UW), the Permian extinction can help us understand the impacts of climate change in our own current era. He’s the lead author of a study published in Science last month that builds off of previous research by Curtis Deutsch, a professor of oceanography at UW.
“In 2015, Curtis published a paper demonstrating that temperature and oxygen act as invisible barriers to habitat for animals in the modern ocean,” Penn told Mongabay. “We wanted to know whether this framework could be used to understand the link between ocean warming, oxygen loss, and marine ecosystems. The end-Permian mass extinction served as the perfect case study because there is clear evidence for ocean warming and oxygen loss during that time period, and the fossils recorded the response of marine biodiversity.”
Penn led a team of researchers that combined models of ocean conditions and animal metabolism with paleoceanographic records to show that the Permian mass extinction was caused by rising ocean temperatures, which in turn forced the metabolism of marine animals to speed up. Increased metabolism meant increased need for oxygen, but the warmer waters could not hold enough oxygen to meet those needs, and ocean life was left gasping for breath.
During the Permian period, Earth’s land masses were still joined together in the supercontinent of Pangaea, and before volcanic eruptions in Siberia increased the concentrations of greenhouse-gas’s in the atmosphere, ocean temperatures and oxygen levels were similar to those of today. The researchers constructed a model based on Earth’s configuration and climate in the Permian, then raised greenhouse gases in the model until ocean surface temperatures in the tropics had risen by 10 degrees Celsius (20 degrees Fahrenheit), the conditions driven by the global warming that was occurring at the time.

This illustration shows the percentage of marine animals that went extinct at the end of the Permian era by latitude, from the model (black line) and from the fossil record (blue dots). A greater percentage of marine animals survived in the tropics than at the poles. The color of the water shows the temperature change, with red being most severe warming and yellow less warming. At the top is the supercontinent Pangaea, with massive volcanic eruptions emitting carbon dioxide. The images below the line represent some of the 96 percent of marine species that died during the event. Includes fossil drawings by Ernst Haeckel/Wikimedia; Blue crab photo by Wendy Kaveney/Flickr; Atlantic cod photo by Hans-Petter Fjeld/Wikimedia; Chambered nautilus photo by ©2010 John White/CalPhotos. Image Credit: Justin Penn and Curtis Deutsch/University of Washington.

The global warming and oxygen loss simulated in the Earth System model Penn and team built matched reconstructions of these changes made from the fossil record of the end of the Permian period. The oceans lost about 80 percent of their oxygen, and around half of the ocean seafloor became completely oxygen-free, especially at lower depths.
The researchers then used published lab measurements on 61 modern marine species like crustaceans, fish, shellfish, corals, and sharks to examine how those animals might respond to those oxygen and temperature conditions. Today’s marine wildlife are expected to have similar tolerances to high temperatures and low oxygen as Permian animals because of the similar environmental conditions under which they evolved.
“Warming and oxygen loss would have led to a loss of aerobic habitat for marine animals by increasing their temperature-dependent oxygen demand amid declining supply,” Penn said. “The predicted geography and severity of the resulting mass extinction explain the patterns observed in the global marine fossil record from the ‘Great Dying.’”
In a statement, Curtis Deutsch explained that by combining species’ traits with the team’s paleoclimate simulations, the researchers were able to predict the geography of the extinction event. “Very few marine organisms stayed in the same habitats they were living in — it was either flee or perish,” Deutsch, a co-author of the Science paper, said.
The model predicted that, because animals found at high latitudes far from the tropics are the most sensitive to oxygen levels, their numbers would have suffered the most, with those that have particularly high oxygen demands being almost completely wiped out. Many tropical species would have gone extinct, as well, the model showed.
“Since tropical organisms’ metabolisms were already adapted to fairly warm, lower-oxygen conditions, they could move away from the tropics and find the same conditions somewhere else,” Deutsch said. “But if an organism was adapted for a cold, oxygen-rich environment, then those conditions ceased to exist in the shallow oceans.”

This roughly 1.5-foot slab of rock from southern China shows the Permian-Triassic boundary. The bottom section is pre-extinction limestone. The upper section is microbial limestone deposited after the extinction. Photo Credit: Jonathan Payne/Stanford University.

To test the predictions made by the climate model, study co-authors Jonathan Payne and Erik Sperling of Stanford University turned to the Paleobiology Database, a virtual archive of published fossil collections. By looking at how fossils are distributed in ancient seafloor rocks, it’s possible to piece together where animals existed before the extinction event, where they they fled to or went extinct, or where they were confined to a fraction of their previous habitat. The fossil distributions of the late-Permian period confirmed that species far from the equator were hit the hardest by the mass extinction event.
“The signature of that kill mechanism, climate warming and oxygen loss, is this geographic pattern that’s predicted by the model and then discovered in the fossils,” Penn said in a statement. “The agreement between the two indicates this mechanism of climate warming and oxygen loss was a primary cause of the extinction.”
Penn and co-authors say that other shifts in the ocean environment, such as acidification or changes in the productivity of photosynthetic organisms, probably contributed to the Permian extinction, but that warmer temperatures leading to insufficient oxygen levels accounts for more than half of the losses in marine life.
That could help us understand how marine life will fare in our current age of global warming, Penn added, because the conditions in the late Permian are similar to conditions today.
The drivers of the Permian mass extinction — volcanic CO2 emissions into the atmosphere leading to global warming — are analogous to human-caused CO2 emissions occurring today, Penn noted. “These results allow us to compare the scale of our modern problem to the largest extinction in Earth’s history,” he told Mongabay. “Under a business-as-usual emissions scenarios, by 2100 warming in the upper ocean will have approached 20 percent of warming in the late Permian, and by the year 2300 it will reach between 35 and 50 percent.”
The study, therefore, highlights the potential for a mass extinction driven by anthropogenic climate change due to mechanisms similar to those that caused the Permian mass extinction, Penn said: “The ocean cannot be cooled or oxygenated on a global scale by any feasible means. The only sustainable solution to reduce the risk of temperature-dependent hypoxia is to halt the anthropogenic accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.”

Links

• Climate Change Also Wiped Out Life On Earth 252 Million Years Ago
• The 'Great Dying': Rapid Warming Caused Largest Extinction Event Ever, Report Says
• How Extreme Weather Is Shrinking The Planet
• Hothouse Earth: Our Planet Has Been Here Before – Here’s What It Looked Like
• What Happened Last Time It Was As Warm As It’s Going To Get Later This Century?
• Burning Coal May Have Caused Earth’s Worst Mass Extinction

The 18 Tourist Hotspots That Could Be Lost Forever Due To Climate Change

Fairfax - Penny Walker

      Tourists looking out over panorama view of old town Dubrovnik. Photo: Shutterstock

There are dozens of sites that are popular with tourists across the world that are at risk. Here are just a handful of them.

London

Photo: Shutterstock

When the Thames Barrier was first used in 1984, it was predicted that it would only be called upon two or three times a year. Today, we use it around six to seven times a year, meaning that usage has almost tripled in just 35 years. While London is fairly far inland, it doesn't sit too far from the river mouth making it sensitive to tidal fluctuations.

Venice, Italy

Photo: ALASTAIR MILLER

Probably the most obvious on the list, we already regularly see images of people using elevated planks to cross St Mark's Square in the winter months. There are genuine concerns that the city may not be around for too much longer. Venice's buildings have been sinking – albeit very slowly – into the Adriatic and rising sea levels will only make things worse.

The situation is so bad that Venice features on the World Monuments Fund (WMF) list of places under threat. According to the WMF, cruise ships are only speeding up the process: "The large cruise ships have had direct and indirect impacts on flooding."

Maldives

Inevitably, small islands are some of the most at-risk areas when it comes to rising sea levels. Throw in the fact that the Maldives is the world's lowest lying nation (on average the islands are only 1.3 meters above sea level) and you have a recipe for disaster. Should waters rise as much as three feet, it would submerge the 1,200 islands enough to make them uninhabitable.

Tropical islands
The Maldives is not alone in potentially being lost to the sea. There are plenty of islands around the world that are destined to share a similar fate. Projections include the loss of the Seychelles, low-lying islands in the Solomons and Micronesia, Kiribati – about halfway between Hawaii and Australia –the islands of the Torres Strait off the north coast of Australia, Palau in the Philippines, the Carteret Islands in the south-west Pacific Ocean and Tuvalu, as well as many more.

Magdalen Islands, Canada

Photo: Mathieu Dupuis

It's not just tropical islands that are under threat. Sitting in the Gulf of St Lawrence in Quebec, the Magdalen Islands' sandstone cliffs are susceptible to erosion. As the Earth warms, the wall of sea ice that protects the archipelago from the blustering winds and sea spray is melting rapidly. With this last line of defence gone, it is likely that the islands will erode even more quickly than their current rate of loss – a massive 40 inches a year.

The North Pole
All this water has to be coming from somewhere, and much of it is coming from the vast glaciers and icebergs of the Arctic and Antarctic. The ice caps are melting so quickly in fact that it's believed that in just a few generation's time, true magnetic north will no longer be found on a chunk of sea ice, but above water. There will be no more standing on the North Pole.

Polar bear spotting in the Arctic

Photo: AP

The melting of the ice caps is also threatening the polar bear's habitat and way of life. These strong carnivores use the ice to hunt seals and burn through a whopping 12,325 calories a day. They are completely dependent on being able hunt seals on firm ground. As the ice reduces, so do the hunting grounds, leading to increasing reports of polar bears dying of starvation.

Key West, Florida
Even before hurricane Irma hit the tailend of Florida back in 2017, Key West was having problems with the environment. Rising seas and warnings by the Army Corps of Engineers has encouraged the small city to take drastic measures. They have invested one million dollars into elevating their roads before they too become a permanent underwater attraction.

Miami, Florida

Celebrity Edge cruise ship arrives in Miami.

More than one of Florida's cities are under threat. King tides are already surging over coastal defences to send water a couple of feet high surging down Miami's streets – and the future is bleak. In fact, if the Earth's temperature rises by as much as four degrees, 93 per cent of the city's residents could find themselves displaced. Fort Lauderdale to the north and the equally popular Everglades National Park to the west are also at risk.

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

The Ho Chi Minh City skyline and Saigon River. Photo: Shutterstock

Set on the Saigon River, Ho Chi Minh City is more susceptible to rising sea levels than other major tourist destinations according to research. With just a 1.5 degree increase in temperature (billed as the 'best case scenario'), the city will suffer one of the greatest sea level rises out of all the world's major cities at 3.1 metres. This could see historic landmarks flooded and 29 per cent of the population affected.

Bangladesh
Much like Venice, the plight of Bangladesh is not a new one. The country already experiences floods that cover around a quarter of its landmass every year and this only predicted to worsen with time. Citizens here are already learning to adapt their way of life to combat the change in their environment, with farmers using rafts to transfer produce and agriculture when the waters rise.

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Photo: Shutterstock

The popular Brazilian city has been cited as one of the biggest losers of rising sea levels. It has been speculated that should warming continue at its current rate, the waters around the city could rise up to 32 inches by 2100. Its popular beaches could be gone, along with its airport. Fortunately, Christ the Redeemer is high enough to escape the rising tide.

Alexandria, Egypt
Once the home of the most extensive library on Earth, today it's not just the loss of knowledge that Alexandria laments, but the possibility that more of its history will be swallowed by water. The city's beaches could be submerged with as little as half a metre rise in sea levels and as many as eight million people displaced. Coastal flooding could also affect the Nile Delta and the towns and villages along its banks.

Pompeii, Italy

Photo: Shutterstock

The residents of this Italian city once faced one of the worst natural disasters in human history. Now it is under threat from the sea. Dr Lena Reimann, of the coastal risks and sea level research group at Keil recently said that: ""Pompeii is at low to moderate risk from coastal erosion and erosion risk may increase by up to 16 per cent under the high-end sea-level rise scenarios until 2100".

Ancient Mediterranean sites

Tourists at a viewpoint on Srd hill looking at Dubrovnik panorama in Dubrovnik, Croatia. Photo: Shutterstock

It's not just Pompeii that is under threat in the Mediterranean. The Patriarchal Basilica of Aquileia in Italy is also at risk as storm surges threaten the 5th Century city, much of which has not yet been excavated. Increasing water levels also threaten Herculaneum, Istanbul and Dubrovnik, as well as the kasbah at Algiers, the Medieval city of Rhodes and the archaeological site of Carthage.

Osaka, Japan

Photo: SHUTTERSTOCK

According to new data, the high risk level posed to Osaka could affect as many as 5.2 million people. Like much of the rest of the country, the city employs the use of seawalls to protect its shore. But there is only so long that this can work. The thriving Japanese city could soon be lost to the sea.

Bangkok, Thailand

Photo: Shutterstock

Asian cities really have drawn a bad hand here, with many of them likely to be significantly affected by rising sea levels. Even if the Earth warms towards the more conservative end of projections – around two degrees by 2100 – 42 per cent of this hugely popular tourist destination's inhabitants will be displaced with waters projected to rise by 4.9 metres, flooding much of Bangkok.

Amsterdam, Netherlands

Houseboats in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Photo: Shutterstock

Things aren't looking good for the popular European city considering that parts of it are already four metres below sea level. While the Netherlands' capital isn't too worried just yet thanks to its series of innovative dykes and dams, research shows that should the Earth's temperature warm by four degrees, the sea level around Amsterdam could rise by a whopping 7.6 metres, potentially displacing as much as 98 per cent of the city's population.

Links

• Icons at Risk: Climate Change Threatening Australian Tourism
• Climate Change & Tourism
• Climate Change: Implications for Tourism
• Tourism is responsible for nearly one tenth of the world's carbon emissions
• Good weather or your money back: how climate change could transform tourism