14/02/2019

'We Have Death And Devastation At Every Turn': The Flood Massacre Of Queensland Cattle

The Guardian - |

Almost overnight we have transitioned from drought to a flood disaster zone. There are kangaroos dead in trees, birds drowned in drifts of silt and our beloved bovine family perished in huddled piles
A cow and calf killed by flood waters in Queensland: ‘It is absolutely soul-destroying to think our animals suffered like this.’ Photograph: Jacqueline Curley
After what can only be described as an environmental massacre of mammoth proportions throughout the whole of north-west Queensland, the people of this country are heartbroken.
We live on a family cattle station 60km north of Cloncurry, where we have just received 700mm-plus of rain over seven days, with the majority of that falling over four days. This extreme weather event, equivalent to an inland cyclone, has decimated much of our native wildlife, along with our domestic livestock. They were constantly exposed to wind and cold driving rain for far too long. The majority of the country was either covered in flood water or churned into a bog, making their feed inaccessible.
The cattle became weak, using what energy they had struggling through the mud and pushed by the driving rain. After withstanding these harsh conditions for days on end their energy was depleted and they finally became exhausted simply trying to stay warm and died.
Graziers around the district are working tirelessly to save what they can and also to humanely euthanise those animals that sadly are beyond saving. My son has been flying over and shooting his beloved cattle for several days, which is absolutely gutting – he has grown up with them, their parents, their grandparents and great-grandparents. Helicopters are being used to distribute what fodder we have available to the survivors and right now this is our only form of transportation. The majority of the region is still inaccessible to vehicles and will be for some time.
‘We just couldn’t get the machines to get them out in time. The tears are rolling as I write this, I love these animals and can’t bear to see them suffer unnecessarily. This is why landholders need revolver licences, we are not the cowboys some government ministers try to portray us as. It may be tough love but quick death is better than perishing and starving until they expire, and in conditions like this long barrel rifles are heavy and difficult to carry. Many farmers will have to walk around in clogging mud and shoot hundreds of these poor animals.’ Photograph: Jacqueline Curley 
The scale of devastation here and throughout the north-west is impossible to put into words. There are estimates of hundreds of thousands of domestic livestock having been lost so far during this disaster and it is impossible to put into numbers the impact on the region’s native wildlife. In some of our paddocks we are facing a 95% loss and on average we are estimating approximately 50% losses over all of our family’s flood-affected properties, encompassing approximately 120,000 acres.
Our cattle have been in a significant supplement feeding program, having withstood the last seven years of relative drought. As a result of this our girls were in great condition and we were seeing the beginning of another exceptional crop of calves. Almost overnight we have transitioned from relative drought years to a flood disaster zone. No amount of preparation could have readied our herd for the relentless driving rain and near gale-force winds they had to endure.
On day eight the creek by our houses had dropped and slowed just enough for Robert and Kate to swim across and check on some cows close by. The heartbreaking scene they were confronted with on the other side very quickly turned our fears into the horrific nightmare that not only our family but our extended family, the whole of the north-west, are now battling with. It is unfathomable that our ladies in such a short period of time have lost roughly an incredibly 50% of their body weight. The survivors are a mere shadow of the strong healthy animals they were only a fortnight ago.
As we begin to access our paddocks we are being confronted with death and devastation at every turn. There are kangaroos dead in trees and fences, birds drowned in drifts of silt and debris and our beloved bovine family lay perished in piles where they have been huddling for protection and warmth. This scene is mirrored across the entire region, it is absolutely soul-destroying to think our animals suffered like this.
‘This event was on the same scale as a blizzard in America, no warning, absolutely nothing that could be done to save these animals that just walked in this “cyclone over land”. They stopped and died of cold and flood water here.’ Photograph: Jacqueline Curley 
The scale of destruction this disaster has left in its wake we are only just beginning to discover. The sheer amount of storm water that engulfed the region has demolished fences, exposed pipelines, destroyed water infrastructure, created huge gullies that were once only small seasonal streams, turned roads into rivers and washed dam banks away. Our dam, which was an amazing refuge for birdlife and where I spent many peaceful hours watching them, has been destroyed.
Properties further downstream have been inundated by flood water and reports are coming in of entire herds being washed away. Many homestead complexes have been completely submerged. Here we have been lucky – our houses, sheds and out buildings have remained relatively dry. Others will have lost everything, facing an enormous clean-up on the home front, not just out in the paddock.
Right now – I’m sure I am speaking on behalf of everyone affected – our focus is entirely on the welfare of our animals. In the coming weeks when the surviving animals no longer require our constant care, our focus will shift to the colossal task of clean-up, repair and rebuilding where possible. This will also be the time where many will start the gruelling task of tallying up the horrific financial cost. I fear many families will not be able to recover from this blow financially – in some cases their entire future income has literally been washed away.
Graziers are battling a race against time to get fodder out to their cattle. With so many facing the logistics of such a task all at once, helicopters, hay and aviation fuel are in short supply and many are completely helpless to do anything until their name reaches the top of the list. Local emergency teams and private helicopter companies have been doing an amazing job with what resources they have. They have gone above and beyond the call of duty.
‘Danny Mara getting ready to sling a live heifer out to dry ground, medication and fodder. With a 44 Robinson chopper above.’ Photograph: Jacqueline Curley
This is an absolutely gut-wrenching time for all of us out here, these cattle are not just our source of income: they are our family and, for many of us, our life’s passion. The toll that this will take on our extended agricultural family and our entire local communities, financially and even more so emotionally, really is immeasurable.
Australia, we need your support. Our state and federal governments can do much to help by providing financial funding and disaster assistance packages to help our communities recover and rebuild. The banks can assist by suspending interest repayments on existing mortgages, and writing off significant portions of mortgage debt while our livestock herds rebuild. They own the mortgages on most of this grazing country so they will take a hit with us either way – they may as well let us make a profit for them again down the track.
‘This makes me cry every time I look at these photos. Our crew spent hours here slinging the live heifers out and medicating them. Most still died. They were just the most beautiful mob of stud heifers.’ Photograph: Jacqueline Curley 
It will be four years before many of these people once again have a useful income, which means unless we are back in production again as soon as possible, thriving country communities such as Cloncurry, Julia Creek, Richmond and Hughenden will also perish with us. This is possibly the greatest disaster that our livestock industries have suffered in Australia’s history.
These graphic images should be seen by all Australians so that they have an understanding of our rural life. Empathy for us from our city dwellers will indeed help us to survive and rise again from this catastrophe, just as we have empathy for city dwellers during the many crazy weather events that continually happen in this land. But apart from empathy we need consumer power – insist on buying local produce so we can continue to provide top-quality, homegrown, nourishing Australian beef.

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Melting Himalayan Glaciers: A Big Drop In A Bucket That’s Already Full

The Conversation - 

The source of the Yamuna River, one of the major rivers draining the Himalayas. Anthony Dosseto, Author provided (No reuse)
A new report has warned that even if global warming is held at 1.5℃, we will still lose a third of the glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region. What does that mean for rivers that flow down these mountains, and the people who depend on them?
The HKH region is home to the tallest mountains on Earth, and also to the source of rivers that sustain close to 2 billion people. These rivers supply agriculture with water and with sediments that fertilise soils in valleys and the floodplain.
Some of these rivers are hugely culturally significant. The Ganges (or Ganga), for instance, which flows for more than 2,525km from the western Himalayas into the Bay of Bengal, is personified in Hinduism as the goddess Gaṅgā.
The Ganga River at Rishikesh, as it exits the Himalayas. Anthony Dosseto
When it rains, it pours… literally
Before we get to the effect of melting glaciers on Himalayan rivers, we need to understand where they get their water.
For much of Himalayas, rain falls mostly during the monsoon active between June and September. The monsoon brings heavy rain and often causes devastating floods, such as in northern India in 2013, which forced the evacuation of more than 110,000 people.


2013 floods in Uttarakhand, India.

But the summer monsoon is not the only culprit for devastating floods. Landslides can dam the river, and when this dam bursts it can cause dramatic, unpredictable flooding. Some of those events have been linked to folk stories of floods in many cultures around the world. In the Himalayas, a study tracking the 1,000-year history of large floods showed that heavy rainfall and landslide-dam burst are the main causes.
When they melt, glaciers can also create natural dams, which can then burst and send floods down the valley. In this way, the newly forecast melting poses an acute threat.
The potential problem is worsened still further by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s prediction that the frequency of extreme rainfall events will also increase.

Come hell or high water
What will happen to Himalayan rivers when the taps are turned to high in this way? To answer this, we need to look into the past.
For tens of thousands of years, rivers have polished rocks and laid down sediments in the lower valleys of the mountain range. These sediments and rocks tell us the story of how the river behaves when the tap opens or closes.
Rock surfaces tell us where the river was carving into its bed. Anthony Dosseto
Some experts propose that intense rain tends to trigger landslides, choking the river with sediments which are then dumped in the valleys. Others suggest that the supply of sediments to the river generally doesn’t change much even in extreme rainfall events, and that the main effect of the extra flow is that the river erodes further into its bed.
The most recent work supports the latter theory. It found that 25,000-35,000 years ago, when the monsoon was much weaker than today, sediments were filling up Himalayan valleys. But more recently (3,000-6,000 years ago), rock surfaces were exposed during a period of strong monsoon, illustrating how the river carved into its bed in response to higher rainfall.
Sediments laid down in Himalayan valleys support agriculture, but also tell us the ancient story of rivers that carried them. Anthony Dosseto
So what does the past tell us about the future of Himalayan rivers? More frequent extreme rainfall events mean more floods, of course. But a stronger monsoon also means rivers will cut deeper into their beds, instead of fertilising Himalayan valleys and the Indo-Gangetic plain with sediments.
What about glaciers melting? For as long as there are glaciers, this will increase the amount of meltwater in the rivers each spring (until 2060, according the report, after which there won’t be any meltwater to talk about). So this too will contribute to rivers carving into their beds instead of distributing sediments. It will also increase the risk of flooding from outburst of glacial lake dams.
So what is at stake? The melting glaciers? No. Given thousands or millions of years, it seems likely that they will one day return. But on a more meaningful human timescale, what is really at stake is us – our own survival. Global warming is reducing our resources, and making life more perilous along the way. The rivers of the Himalayas are just one more example.

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Climate And Economic Risks 'Threaten 2008-Style Systemic Collapse'

The Guardian - Jonathan Watt

Environmental and social problems could interact in global breakdown, report says
Hurricane Florence in North Carolina in 2018. The report fears relentless floods and fires in the US could threaten financial institutions. Photograph: Jason Miczek/Reuters
The gathering storm of human-caused threats to climate, nature and economy pose a danger of systemic collapse comparable to the 2008 financial crisis, according to a new report that calls for urgent and radical reform to protect political and social systems.
The study says the combination of global warming, soil infertility, pollinator loss, chemical leaching and ocean acidification is creating a “new domain of risk”, which is hugely underestimated by policymakers even though it may pose the greatest threat in human history.
“A new, highly complex and destabilised ‘domain of risk’ is emerging – which includes the risk of the collapse of key social and economic systems, at local and potentially even global levels,” warns the paper from the Institute for Public Policy Research. “This new risk domain affects virtually all areas of policy and politics, and it is doubtful that societies around the world are adequately prepared to manage this risk.”
Until recently, most studies of environmental risk tended to examine threats in isolation: climate scientists examined disruption to weather systems, biologists focused on ecosystem loss and economists calculated potential damages from intensifying storms and droughts. But a growing body of research is assessing how the interplay of these factors can create a cascade of tipping points in human society as well as the natural world.
The new paper – This is a Crisis: Facing up to the Age of Environmental Breakdown – is a meta-study of dozens of academic papers, government documents and NGO reports compiled by IPPR, a leftwing thinktank that is considered an influence on Labour policy.
The authors examine how the deterioration of natural infrastructure, such as a stable climate and fertile land, have a knock-on effect on health, wealth, inequality and migration, which in turn heightens the possibility of political tension and conflict.
The paper stresses the human impacts go beyond climate change and are occurring at speeds unprecedented in recorded history.
Evidence on the deterioration of natural systems is presented with a series of grim global statistics: since 1950, the number of floods has increased by a factor of 15, extreme temperature events by a factor of 20, and wildfires sevenfold; topsoil is now being lost 10 to 40 times faster than it is being replenished by natural processes; the 20 warmest years since records began in 1850 have been in the past 22 years; vertebrate populations have fallen by an average of 60% since the 1970s, and insect numbers – vital for pollination – have declined even faster in some countries.
Flames rise from the La Tuna fire near Burbank, California in 2017. Photograph: David McNew/Getty Images
These processes amplify and interact with existing social and economic problems, potentially threatening systemic collapse similar to the 2008-9 financial crisis. Back then, a subprime mortgage crisis in the US exposed excessive risk-taking and triggered a global panic and the deepest recession since the 1930s. The IPPR study envisages a similar breakdown could occur if the US suffers relentlessly worsening damage from hurricane floods and forest fires, which would prompt a rush of insurance claims and threaten the viability of financial institutions.
“In the extreme, environmental breakdown could trigger catastrophic breakdown of human systems, driving a rapid process of ‘runaway collapse’ in which economic, social and political shocks cascade through the globally linked system – in much the same way as occurred in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007-08,” the paper warns.
There are other potential cascades. The paper warns of the vulnerability of food systems that rely on just five animal and 12 plant species to provide 75% of the world’s nutrition. The lack of diversity weakens resilience to the growing risks of climate disruption, soil deterioration, pollution and pollinator loss. Previous research – cited by the IPPR – estimates a one-in-20 chance per decade of a simultaneous failure of maize production in the US and China, which provide 60% of the global supply.


Migration is also likely to increase as a result of longer droughts and more extreme heat, particularly in the Middle East and central and northern Africa.
Laurie Laybourn-Langton, the lead author of the report, said the climate crisis was likely to create 10 times more refugees from that region than the 12 million who left during the Arab spring.
“There would be repercussions in Europe. Rightwing groups use the fear of migration, as we saw during the EU referendum in Britain,” he said. “What is that going to look like when far more people are forced from homes due to environmental shocks? What does that mean for political cohesion.”
Several other recent interdisciplinary studies have highlighted the dangers of mutually reinforcing impacts. In December, the authors of a paper published in Science warned the risks were far greater than assumed because 45% of tipping points were interrelated and could amplify one another. Last August, scientists warns these domino effects could push the Earth into an almost uninhabitable “hothouse state”.
Sea water engulfs the church of Pariahan village, north of Manila, Philippines, in November 2018. Photograph: Jes Aznar/Getty Images
Studies of financial and social tipping points are scarcer, but concern is growing. Last month, the top three global risks identified by the World Economic Forum were extreme weather, climate policy failure and natural disasters. Water shortages, accelerating biodiversity loss and large-scale involuntary migration also ranked in the top 10.
“Of all risks, it is in relation to the environment that the world is most clearly sleepwalking into catastrophe,” its annual risk report warns. “The results of climate inaction are becoming increasingly clear. The accelerating pace of biodiversity loss is a particular concern.”
The IPPR report, which launches a wider 18-month project on this topic, urges policymakers to grapple with these risks as a priority, to accelerate the restoration of natural systems, and to push harder on the “green new deal” transition towards renewable energy. In particular, it says, “the younger generations will need help in finding the energy and a sense of control that often eludes them as they begin to realise the enormity of inheriting a rapidly destabilising world”.
Wider discussion is the first step, according to Laybourn-Langton, who said he was shocked by the paucity of public debate relative to the scale of the problems.
“People are not frank enough about this. If it is discussed at all, it is the sort of thing mentioned at the end of a conversation, that makes everyone look at the floor, but we don’t have time for that now,” he said. “It’s appearing more in media, but we are not doing enough.”

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13/02/2019

Morrison Must Break With Climate Denialists

Sydney Morning Herald - Editorial

Prime Minister Scott Morrison took a big step forward on Monday by saying what most Australians have long been thinking about the link between climate change and the bushfires, droughts and catastrophic floods that have ravaged the country in recent years.  Hopefully he will now do something about cutting Australia's carbon emissions, too.
The remarks on climate change were perhaps the biggest surprise in a major speech to the National Press Club in Canberra yesterday ahead of the first parliamentary sitting week of 2019 and the federal election.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison accepts climate change is causing natural disasters. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
Previously, Mr Morrison has refused to accept a causal link between climate change and weather events despite the overwhelming consensus in the scientific community.
As recently as last week, Mr Morrison visited the site of devastating bushfires in south-west Tasmania in forests that had not caught fire in millenniums. Yet he described as "pretty offensive" a suggestion by Greens senator Nick McKim that the fires were made more dangerous by the Coalition's pro-coal policies.
So it was welcome that Mr Morrison on Monday turned around and emphatically accepted the science. "I acknowledge [climate change] is a factor. Of course it is. Australians do – the vast majority of Australians," he  said.
It has taken a long time for these words to come out of Mr Morrison's mouth but the real issue is what he plans to do about them. Mr Morrison promised  to do more on climate change before the next election but he still suffers from a credibility gap on the issue. In the next breath he repeated his prediction that Australia will meet its emissions reductions targets under the Paris Treaty "at a canter" despite strong evidence that it cannot on current settings.
Mr Morrison may want to reoccupy the centre ground on climate change but it is a pity that he rejected even the possibility of compromise on the equally divisive issue of asylum seekers.  "You want to join me on the right ground, you're welcome. But I'm not going to find a middle ground," he said.
The Herald argues that a middle ground exists which gradually saves refugees stuck in limbo in the Pacific without compromising the policy of turning back the boats.
Indeed the Coalition has led the way by sending 500 refugees from Nauru and Manus Island to the US and by voluntarily taking all the children and their families from Nauru. A sensible compromise, however, would require both the government and the equally conflicted ALP to give ground.
The ALP has previously backed a bill put forward by independent MPs giving doctors the final say on whether to bring asylum seekers from Manus and Nauru to Australia for medical treatment. Mr Morrison argues that the bill, to be debated this week, threatens national security and the government must have a veto.
Yet court judgments are already forcing the government to bring scores of sick detainees to Australia for treatment on doctors' orders.  A bipartisan deal seems possible which allows truly urgent cases to come here without costly legal battles but which includes safeguards in case there is evidence that border security is undermined.
In general, Mr Morrison has a choice between looking to the middle ground or pandering to what Defence Minister Christopher Pyne described in Monday's Herald as the "shouty" extreme right  elements in the media and the party. He should be aware that Australians do not usually back the extremes.

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Scientists Say These 10 Major Cities Could Become Unlivable Within 80 Years

Business Insider - Aria Bendix


An aerial view of Shanghai, China, in 2016. VCG/Getty
 As scientific projections of the impacts of climate change become more robust, the threats of extreme storms, catastrophic flooding, heatwaves, and droughts have gotten clearer and more frightening.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global temperatures could rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – the threshold for severe effects of climate change – by 2040. By the turn of the century, temperatures could climb even higher, spelling disaster in some areas.
In the future, cities that are prone to flooding or heat waves could see more severe, and potentially fatal, weather conditions. With this in mind, scientists have begun to pinpoint locations that could become unbearable for humans by the turn of the century.
The following 10 cities might soon struggle to support human life. And for the most part, these areas are already witnessing the devastating effects of climate change.

More than than 3.3 million Miami residents could face catastrophic flooding by 2100.
Miami residents fish during Tropical Storm Gordon on September 3, 2018. Joe Raedle/Getty Images
 In a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, scientist Mathew Hauer looked at the risk of sea-level rise in the continental US.
From 2010 to 2100, he found, more than 13 million people could be exposed to 6 feet worth of sea-level rise. Of those residents, about a quarter are in Miami-Dade and Broward counties in Florida.In the face of this catastrophic scenario, Hauer told Business Insider, Miami might not be able to adequately prepare.
“I’m 6 feet tall,” he said. “It’s water level as high as I am.”
New Orleans could be underwater as well
Hauer’s study also cited New Orleans as one of the US cities most vulnerable to flooding.
If sea levels were to rise by just 3 feet, more than 100,000 New Orleans residents – about a third of the city’s population – could be inundated.
“When you start tacking on storm surges, tidal flooding, all those other associated events, the [affected populations] get much larger,” Hauer said.
Chicago could see another fatal heat wave at any moment.
The South Side of Chicago. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
 Chicago is located in one of America’s most severe heat zones, according to Richard Rood, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.
In 1995, the city witnessed a dangerous heat wave that killed more than 700 people. At that time, outside temperatures reached 106 degrees Fahrenheit, while wet-bulb temperatures – which account for both heat and humidity – reached 85 degrees Fahrenheit.
Studies have shown that exposure to a wet-bulb temperature of more than 95 degrees Fahrenheit can be fatal, since the human body can no longer cool itself.
Rood said a heat wave of this magnitude could happen again at any time in Chicago, which sees high humidity in the summer and regular continental heat.
Dubai’s summer temperatures could reach 113 degrees Fahrenheit after 2070.
A 2015 study from scientists at MIT identified the Middle Eastern Gulf as a “regional hotspot” where climate change could severely threaten human lives.
The study predicted that Gulf cities like Dubai would see temperatures as high as 113 degrees Fahrenheit in the summer after 2070. It also predicted that wet-bulb temperatures would exceed their fatal threshold – 95 degrees Fahrenheit – once every decade or two thereafter.
In a blog post on news.com.au, Australia’s main news site, some Dubai residents described how they already avoid going outdoors from June to September.
“When you walk outside from a nice air-conditioned room it’s a bit like opening an oven door when you’re too close,” one resident said. “The hot air hits you at once.”
Daily temperatures in Abu Dhabi could become unbearable after 2070.
The new districts of Al Ain in Abu Dhabi. Artur Widak/NurPhoto/Getty Images
 The MIT study also lists Abu Dhabi as one of the cities most vulnerable to extreme heat.
In just a half century, the researchers predict, the hottest temperatures in Abu Dhabi will be more than one-off occurrences.
Thus far, the highest temperature ever recorded in the region is 126 degrees Fahrenheit.
By 2070, the city’s residents can expect to endure this level of heat on a more frequent basis.
Shanghai could see fatally high temperatures between 2070 and 2100.
The North China Plain, home to around 400 million residents, could see the deadliest heatwaves on the planet by the end of the century.
According to a 2018 study published in Nature Communications, the area can expect hundreds of severe heatwaves between 2070 and 2100.
Shanghai could be one of the cities that’s most affected. Researchers predict that in that 30-year period, there will be five instances of recorded temperatures in Shanghai that exceed the fatal threshold (wet-bulb temperatures above 95 degrees Fahrenheit).
Shanghai is the third most populous city in the world, with around 25 million residents.
Beijing’s smog could threaten its livability
A Chinese woman wears a mask and filter as she walks to work
during heavy pollution on December 9, 2015 in Beijing, China. 
Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
 Beijing is also part of the North China Plain, making it vulnerable to extreme heatwaves.
Like many Chinese cities, Beijing is a major emitter of greenhouse gases, which also contribute to air pollution. The city is known for frequent bouts of smog that force locals to wear face masks.
Pollution is more deadly than smoking, killing nearly 15 times more people than all the world’s wars and violence combined. In 2015, 9 million people died prematurely from pollution-related diseases, accounting for 16% of all deaths worldwide.
Delhi’s residents already suffer from nausea and headaches due to the smog, as well as heatstroke on hot days.
Extreme temperature conditions in Delhi are similar to those in Beijing and Shanghai.
Smog-filled air causes skin rashes, nausea, and headaches among residents, while some people have also been known to pass out from heatstroke.
A 2017 analysis found that wet-bulb temperatures in South Asian cities like Delhi could reach 95 degrees Fahrenheit – the point at which they become fatal – by 2100. A scenario like that, however, only tends to happen once every 25 years.
According to the analysis, around 2% of the Indian population is currently exposed to wet-bulb temperatures of 90 degrees Fahrenheit. By the end of the century, it predicted, that amount could rise to around 70% of the population.
Sea-level rise has Dhaka teeming with refugees
Zakir Chowdhury/Barcroft Images / Barcroft Media via Getty Images
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable nations when it comes to climate change.
Not only is the country prone to heat waves, but it also already has to contend with devastating floods. In the summer of 2017, flooding affected the lives of more than 8 million people in Bangladesh, killing around 140 people and damaging nearly 700,000 homes.
Floods are also stripping away at available land. Each year, riverbank erosion displaces up to 200,000 people in Bangladesh. The IPCC estimates that the nation could lose up to 20% of its landmass from just 3 feet of sea-level rise.
“Sea-level rise is already really present [in Bangladesh],” Rood said. “As the storm surge gets bigger, there are going to be more problems because there are so many people.”
Many climate refugees in Bangladesh are fleeing from rural villages to Dhaka, yet that area is still vulnerable to floods, particularly during monsoon season.
Lagos is growing rapidly despite the looming threat of sea-level rise.
The population of Lagos, Nigeria, may be growing, but the city is also becoming more vulnerable to sea-level rise.
Hauser said Lagos is particularly susceptible to floods due to its low-lying terrain and location on a river delta. In 2016, researchers predicted that Lagos could see 260,000 deaths due to flooding in the next 10 years.
According to Rood, the increased frequency of flooding and extreme weather in cities like Lagos could make it difficult for the areas to recover after each event.
But both he and Hauser say the impacts of climate disasters can be mitigated with appropriate planning and infrastructure.
“Your probability of getting into a car accident is relatively low for any given drive, yet we wear seat belts. In any given year, your probability of dying is relatively low, yet you buy life insurance,” Hauser said.
Similarly, cities should plan for rising temperatures and sea levels, he said.
“We have plenty of examples where, if you prepare for these heat emergencies, then you can survive them,” Rood said. “The question to me is, do they become so common that it’s not worth it anymore?”

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The Guardian View On The Mass Death Of Insects: This Threatens Us All

The Guardian - Editorial

Global warming and industrialised farming are damaging vital ecosystems 
Honeybees. ‘Biodiversity is not an optional extra. It is the web that holds all life, including human life.’
Photograph: Carolyn Kaster/AP
One of the classic science-fiction treatments of the end of civilisation was The Death of Grass, by John Christopher, in which a mysterious sickness struck down all the grasses on which most of the world’s agriculture is based, from rice to wheat.
In the end, politics among the survivors of plague, war and famine was reduced to a bitter fratricidal struggle over a defensible potato patch. Like most of the so-called “cosy catastrophe” novels, this could be criticised for optimism. Grim though a future of famine and the war of all against all might seem, the consequences were largely confined to humans.
The threatened extinction of insect populations around the world raises the prospect of a much more general catastrophe, which would implicate plants, birds, fish, small mammals, and everything else that depends on insects.
That’s just the start. Other species, and we ourselves, depend on the animals and plants that need insects. When they go, we go. This is not just a greater catastrophe. It’s a much more plausible one. The most recent study concluded that insect biomass is decreasing around the world at a rate of 2.5% a year. At that rate, half the insects in the world will be gone in 50 years’ time, and all of them in a century – although no one will be keeping track of centuries then.
The chief driver of this catastrophe is unchecked human greed. For all our individual and even collective cleverness, we behave as a species with as little foresight as a colony of nematode worms that will consume everything it can reach until all is gone and it dies off naturally.
The challenge of behaving more intelligently than creatures that have no brain at all will not be easy. But unlike the nematodes, we know what to do. The UN convention on biodiversity was signed in 1992, alongside the convention on climate change. Giving it the strength to curb our appetites is now urgent.
Biodiversity is not an optional extra. It is the web that holds all life, including human life.
The two main expressions of greed that hasten this apocalypse are global warming and industrial agriculture. It appears that most of the damage is being done in the developed world by farming practices.
The use of giant fields, devoid of shelter for insects of any sort at all, whether they are harmful to human interests or not, and where the plants are drenched in long-lasting pesticides, has been fatal for uncounted billions of insects. The effects of this kind of farming reach beyond the fields immediately affected, too.
There has been a huge loss of aquatic insect species from the rivers into which the products of industrial agriculture are flushed by rain. Even in German nature reserves, which are by definition protected from the use of pesticides, there have been steep falls in insect populations because so many of the most widely used ones are persistent and prevent breeding.
In the tropics, the steady rise of global temperatures is already devastating whole ecosystems, starting at the bottom with the insects. Last year we learned of the disappearance of almost all the ground-dwelling insects from a rainforest in Puerto Rico, and three-quarters of the species of the canopy.
Some governments have done some necessary things. The EU has banned neonicotinoid pesticides. But the necessary change also relies on individual action. As individuals we must consume less in every way, which helps with climate change. We must also change our food habits. To eat less meat and more organic is not just piety. A little self-restraint in this generation will make all the difference to our grandchildren.

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12/02/2019

Coal Miners Derided Climate Action 'Sideshow'. Now It's The Main Event

Fairfax - David Morris | Brendan Dobbie

Authors
  • David Morris is CEO of the NSW Environmental Defenders Office
  • Brendan Dobbie is its acting principal lawyer
The nascent field of climate litigation in Australia came of age on Friday. The Chief Judge of the NSW Land and Environment Court, Brian Preston, delivered a landmark judgment refusing to approve a new coal mine because of its impacts on climate change. In the Chief Judge’s words, the mine proposal was in the wrong place at the wrong time.
When we first argued that our client, the Groundswell Gloucester, should be a party to this case and put a climate-change ground before the court, the mining companies thought it a laughable proposition, and said it would be “a sideshow”. As it happens, climate change became the main event in this court, as it is elsewhere.
A protest sign in Forbesdale, near Gloucester, opposing the proposed Rocky Hill coal mine. CREDIT: LIAM DRIVER
The ramifications are likely to ripple out across Australia and possibly the world. This is climate litigation writ large.
The Chief Judge refused the Rocky Hill Coal Project,  near the mid-north coast town of Gloucester, on a range of grounds, all of which are important, but what his judgment says about climate change is of greatest significance. The court accepted the evidence put by Professor Will Steffen about the global carbon budget – that is, there is a limit on the amount of fossil fuels that can be burnt if we are to meet the Paris Agreement targets and avoid dangerous climate change.
The challenge of remaining within the global carbon budget presents a major barrier for new fossil fuel developments. They must overcome what we characterise as the Chief Judge’s “wrong time test”. To pass that test, a fossil fuel proponent must now establish why their project should be allowed to proceed at this time in history, when it is clearly recognised that there is an urgent need for rapid and deep decreases in greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this, most fossil fuel reserves need to remain in the ground unburned.
The Rocky Hill project failed this test. It failed because its impacts on climate change were adjudged to be unsuitable at this time. It failed notwithstanding it was a relatively small project, with comparatively fewer emissions, and one proposing to mine coking coal for steel making rather than the more frequently discussed thermal coal for energy. That would indicate that future fossil-fuel projects, which are either larger, produce more emissions, or seek to generate fuel for energy rather than steel making, face an even steeper challenge in passing the “wrong time test”.
In the Rocky Hill case, the mining company put forward four arguments as to why its project should be allowed to pass the “wrong time test”. First, the emissions could theoretically be offset by alternate mitigation measures at some point in the future. The court rejected this as speculative and hypothetical.
Second, it argued refusal of the project was not the most cost-efficient way to meet the global carbon budget. This was rejected, as it is not the court’s role to determine the least-cost way of achieving global emissions reduction (as an aside, that is the role of leadership and policy – in which we are sadly lacking).
Third, the company mounted, effectively, the drug dealer’s defence: if we don’t mine it here, they’ll mine it somewhere else. This was rejected because there is “no inevitability that developing countries … will instead approve a new coking coal mine … rather than following Australia’s lead to refuse a new coal mine”.
Fourth, the company argued the mine was necessary for the steel production industry. This was rejected on the basis that the mine is not in fact necessary to maintain worldwide steel production and therefore its impacts on climate change could not be justified.
Gloucester residents were jubilant after their win in the Land and Environment Court. CREDIT: JANIE BARRETT
These arguments are standard fare for fossil fuel companies. Until Friday, they had proven incredibly successful in frustrating attempts to address the cumulative impacts of multiple smaller projects on global climate change. The companies’ success had been enabled by policy settings that create no meaningful nexus between our international commitments to emissions reductions, and the approval of fossil fuel projects at a local level, where those emissions are actually produced.
Now the Land and Environment Court’s most senior judge has accepted the causal link between a project’s contribution to cumulative greenhouse gas emissions and global climate change. That, in and of itself, is a matter of great importance.
In one sense this case says the starting point for a new fossil fuel project is “no” because of climate change. A fossil fuel development may argue its unique circumstances justify approval, but it must do so in light of climate change science telling us that there are already sufficient fossil fuel projects approved to exceed the target limit agreed in Paris of a 1.5C rise on the pre-industrial global average  temperature.
We suspect we are only beginning to understand how profoundly influential this judgment will be on the legal landscape in Australia. This won’t be the last project consigned to the dust-bin of history on the grounds of climate change. It is just the first.

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