The latest report
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows how much
people’s diets are contributing to climate change and how changing
these could make them healthier as well as address global warming.
The
special report on climate change and the land released on Thursday,
noted the mean land surface air temperature increased by 1.53C between
1850/1900 and 2006/15, which is double the global mean surface
temperature of 0.87C.
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to cap
global warming at “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels. The year
2018 was about 1C above it.
“This is a perfect storm. Limited
land, an expanding human population, and all wrapped in a suffocating
blanket of climate emergency,” said Dave Reay, Professor of Carbon
Management at the University of Edinburgh.
The report also held a warning for Australia.
It
found rising land surface air temperature, less rainfall and the
evaporation of water into the atmosphere was contributing to
desertification, where fertile land transforms into unproductive desert
lands.
This is already happening in Australia as well as parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of East and Central Asia.
The
IPCC is the world’s leading authority on climate change. Last year it
warned that limiting global warming to 1.5C — the optimal level aimed
for in the Paris climate deal — would be impossible without a drastic
drawdown in greenhouse gas emissions.
IPCC vice chair Professor
Mark Howden of the Australian National University said Australia was
already feeling the impacts of climate change, especially in summer,
with repeated heatwaves recently.
“Climate change is already
impacting our land systems, our agriculture, forests and biodiversity,”
he told news.com.au. “Those impacts will increase significantly in the
future.”
About
29 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions globally come from the food
system but changing this could make people healthier and better off.
“The
good news from this report is that we don’t have to make a choice
between feeding ourselves and living in harmony with nature — solutions
that ensure food security are also good for nature, the climate and
communities,” Australian Conservation Foundation president Mara Bún
said.
But food security is at risk if the world doesn’t act quickly to tackle climate change.
“This
report shows climate change is creating additional stresses on our
land, increasing the risks to affected communities and industries of
extreme weather events, erosion and fire damage,” ACF board member Garry
Gale said.
Mr Gale said Australian search was pointing to
promising solutions but these would only be commercially viable if
governments invested in them, and banks and insurers also backed the
projects.
Australia's action on climate change so far has been
blocked by partisan political challenges and Prof Howden said the
country was missing out on opportunities.
“Other countries who are
more proactive on climate change are actually making good money out of
it,” he said. “Whether that is Denmark with its wind turbines or China
with its solar panels. There are significant opportunities to being
ahead of the curve … at the moment we haven’t got an eye on the ball at
all and I think that’s a huge opportunity that’s being missed.”
However,
if Australia can change the way it manages land, along with changing
how people eat and reduce food waste, this could help reduce climate
change as well as benefit Australians financially and physically.
Changing Our Diets
The way that we eat has changed a lot since 1961 and it’s not agreeing with us.
Since
1961 the supply of vegetable oils and meat per person has more than
doubled and the supply of food calories has increased by about 30 per
cent.
On top of this, about 25-30 per cent of the food produced is lost or wasted.
Not
only have these factors contributed to extra greenhouse gas emissions,
two billion adults are also now overweight or obese, while an estimated
821 million people are undernourished.
As climate change gets
worse it could make people unhealthier because higher carbon dioxide
levels in the atmosphere lower the nutritional quality of crops.
Economic
models are also predicting food prices could rise due to climate
change, with cereal prices projected to increase by about 7.6 per cent
in 2050.
The IPCC report suggested encouraging people to eat a
more balanced diet could reduce pressure on the land and improve
people’s nutrition, providing significant health benefits.
Dietary
changes would involve eating more plant-based foods, including coarse
grains, legumes, fruits and vegetables, nuts and seeds, as well as
animal products produced in sustainable and low emissions systems.
“Some
dietary choices require more land and water, and cause more emissions
of heat-trapping gases than others,” IPCC Working Group II co-chair
Debra Roberts said.
By 2050, changing dietary habits could free up
several million square kilometres of land and potentially reduce
emissions by up to eight billion tonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide a
year.
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| Eating less meat and more vegetables will make you healthier and help the environment. Photo supplied |
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Swap the steak for some plant-based tacos instead. Picture: Gracias Madre
|
Food Waste
Another shocking fact is the sheer amount of food we are wasting.
Currently about 25-30 per cent of the food produced is being lost or wasted.
The waste is so high that it contributed to 8-10 per cent of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions between 2010 and 2016.
The reasons for food waste vary between developed and developing countries as well as between regions.
But
there are options to improve harvesting techniques, on-farm storage,
infrastructure, transport, packaging and retail industries. Better
education can also reduce food loss.
By 2050, reduced food loss and waste could free up several million square kilometres of land.
Bioenergy
The
use of bioenergy, such as fuels like ethanol made from plants and other
organic sources, will likely play a part in keeping global warming to
1.5C.
The report suggested most pathways to keeping warming to 1.5C include substantial use of bioenergy technologies.
The scale of this industry is staggering.
Up to seven million square kilometres of land could be for bioenergy by 2050, which is equivalent to the size of Australia.
While
there are other options that don’t involve using as much bioenergy or
other carbon dioxide removal options, these pathways rely on faster
changes to energy, land, urban systems and infrastructure, as well as
behavioural and lifestyle changes to limit warming to 1.5C.
However,
the report also noted the production and use of biomass for bioenergy
can have adverse side effects, and risks for land degradation, food
insecurity, greenhouse gas emissions. This will depend on factors like
the initial land use and the climate of the region.
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Bioenergy involves growing crops to make fuels like ethanol. Source: News Limited
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Changing How We Farm
In many ways farmers have the most to lose from climate change.
As
global warming gets worse, it can exacerbate land degradation through
increases in rainfall intensity, flooding, drought frequency and
severity, heat stress, dry spells, wind, sea-level rise and wave action
and permafrost thaw.
Urban expansion is also projected to see more
forests converted to cropland but this could actually worsen climate
change and losses in food production.
Changing farming practices can make land more productive as well as reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The report suggests many technologies and practices are profitable within three to 10 years.
The
cost of introducing new practices can range from about $US20 ($29.50)
per hectare to $US5000 ($7383) per hectare. The median cost is estimated
about $US500 ($738) a hectare.
Despite the cost, introducing these changes can improve crop yields and the economic value of pasture.
Practices
for cropland can include increasing soil organic matter, erosion
control, improved fertiliser management, improved crop management, for
example, paddy rice management, and use of varieties and genetic
improvements for heat and drought tolerance.
For livestock,
options include better grazing land management, improved manure
management, higher-quality feed, and use of breeds and genetic
improvement.
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| Changing how we farm can reduce global warming. Picture: Zoe Phillips |
Growing Our Sinks
Restoring
forests do not store carbon indefinitely as they are susceptible to
fire or logging but maintaining peatlands can continue to sequester
carbon for centuries provided they are not disturbed by things like
flood, drought, fire, pest outbreaks or poor management.
Climate
change exacerbates land degradation, particularly in low-lying coastal
areas, river deltas, drylands and in permafrost areas.
From 1961 to 2013, the annual area of drylands in drought has increased, on average by slightly more than 1 per cent a year.
In 2015, about 500 million people lived in areas that experienced desertification between the 1980s and 2000s.
The
highest numbers of people impacted were in South and East Asia, the
Sahara region including North Africa, and the Middle East including the
Arabian peninsula.
We Must Act Now
Acting now may avert or reduce risks and losses, and generate benefits to society.
It
could reduce the risk to millions of people from climate extremes,
desertification, land degradation and food and livelihood insecurity.
But
if action is delayed, some options such as increasing organic carbon
(like compost) in the soil may not be as effective because soils have
less capacity to act as sinks for carbon storage when temperatures are
higher.
It may also lead to irreversible loss in ecosystem
functions and services required for food and other production, leading
to increasingly significant economic impacts.
“Delaying action as
is assumed in high emissions scenarios could result in some irreversible
impacts on some ecosystems, which in the longer-term has the potential
to lead to substantial additional greenhouse gas emissions from
ecosystems that would accelerate global warming,” the report said.
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