28/01/2020

(AU) Australia's Bushfires To Push Global Emissions To New High: Met Office

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Hannam

Australia's huge bushfires are forecast to help drive global atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide to one of the fastest annual increases on record.
Average carbon dioxide levels reached about 411.5 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere in 2019, adding to a steady climb propelled by human activities, according to a calculation of figures released by Britain's Met Office.


Smoke from bushfires is spreading high and far east.

However, the pace could accelerate this year, in part because of the carbon being released by the Australian fires.
"A forecast of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide shows that 2020 will witness one of the largest annual rises in concentration since measurements began at Mauna Loa, in Hawaii,  in 1958," the Met Office said in a statement.
Australia's bushfires have so far burnt about 12 million hectares, including more than 5.2 million hectares in NSW, 2.5 million in Queensland, 2.2 million in Western Australia, 1. 4 million in Victoria and about half a million in South Australia.
"While human-caused emissions cause the CO₂ rise in concentration, impacts of weather patterns on global ecosystems are predicted to increase the rise by 10 per cent this year," the Met Office statement said.
"Emissions from the recent Australian bushfires contribute up to one-fifth of this increase," it added.
Estimates this year indicated the fires had resulted in at least 350 million tonnes of CO₂ - or about two-thirds of Australia's annual emissions - based on burning of 5 million hectares. Global treaties typically do not count such emissions to a national account since the incinerated vegetation is assumed to grow back eventually.
“Although the series of annual levels of CO₂ have always seen a year-on-year increase since 1958, driven by fossil fuel burning and deforestation, the rate of rise isn’t perfectly even because there are fluctuations in the response of ecosystem carbon sinks, especially tropical forests," Professor Richard Betts, of the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services and the University of Exeter, said.
Emissions from bushfires in Australia have helped push global levels of carbon dioxide to new highs, the UK Met Office says. Credit: Nick Moir
"Overall these are expected to be weaker than normal for a second year running," he said.
Australia posted its hottest and driest year on record in 2019, factors that contributed to the readiness of forests to burn, climate scientists have said.
This year, atmospheric concentration of CO₂ are expected to peak above 417 parts per million in May, while the average for the year is forecast to be 414.2 ppm, with a range of plus or minus 0.6 ppm, the Met Office said.
This annual average represents an increase of 2.74 ppm, with a range of plus or minus 0.57 ppm rise, on the average for 2019, it said.

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(AU) Australia Will Continue To Burn Unless Indigenous Voices Are Heard

Independent Australia - Paul Dutton

Bushfire management has been practised by Indigenous communities for centuries. (Image by Brett and Sue Coulstock / Flickr)
Paul Dutton
Paul Dutton is a Barkindji man from far-western NSW and part of the Stolen Generation.He works as an Indigenous engagement consultant.
If Aboriginal people continue to be removed from our responsibility, then the nation will continue to burn.
For Aboriginal people – not only for those from Country because we all have a significant dedication to where we live – our Spirit is aching.
The science concerning the growing effects which climate change and increases in temperatures will have on Australia has long been discussed. It was predicted long ago that Australia would first see the consequences of a heating planet.
In September 2019, Australia experienced the start of its worst-ever fire season — still ever-present coming towards the end of January 2020. It has been estimated that 25 million hectares of bushland have been burnt.

Source: Insider
People in many affected areas have said they’ve never experienced a bushfire of the ferocity of these, which have led to such nationwide devastation. We’ve lost people, houses, businesses, infrastructure and more than an estimated billion living creatures from Aboriginal lands, from our ecosystems, from our communities and from our livelihoods.
The trauma for everyone who has experienced these bushfires or who has glimpsed them from their television screens has been heartfelt and deeply emotional. Those from communities that have lost near everything, I cannot begin to imagine.
Driving across lands that have experienced such devastation as I have this weekend, the journey was traumatic and painful, thinking about the losses of the living in the country I drove past.
The complete blackness of the bush is like nothing I ever remember experiencing in previous bushfires. I have travelled through Adelaide Hills in 1983 and remember what that looked like. One service station standing and another opposite the highway burnt to the ground, but I’ve never seen the blackness of the grounds and the complete lack of vegetation or living creatures.
I’ve lived in a bushfire season in the Blue Mountains where ash and dead leaves fell into the yard and the sky roiled with smoke and haze but it was nothing like this drive. Observing Pacific Highway civil construction crews working away diligently like it was just another day, while the mountains, only 15 kilometres from them, seemed to be holding back the raging inferno that has changed the landscape and the history of this nation.
Pacific Highway, near Iluka. (Image: Supplied)
Summerland Way, Grafton to Casino (Image supplied)
I travelled a 650-kilometre round trip and observed less than a handful of living ground animals. There was hardly any roadkill. All of which is massively unusual, traumatic and painful. As a nation, how do we change to protect our future? Or is it, what should our government be actively seeking to do? Surely science should be the sole driver of #ClimateActionNow.
Politicians have proven and continue to prove that they will fail to take the necessary actions to commit to the future actions, policies and infrastructure that the nation needs, to provide some direction for caring for Country.
If Aboriginal people continue to be removed from our responsibility, then the nation will continue to burn. A growing voice to cultural burns is being asked for but there is a myriad of infrastructure changes that can and must occur, which present themselves as a positive opportunity. These changes are needed for the nation to recover, rebuild, refocus towards what is the present, not the future and what the science says. Accountability dictates that facts must be acted upon, not political positioning for the sake of a small minority of corporate businesses which do not have Australia’s best interests at heart.

Land
Infrastructure change must surely start with the strong utilisation of a nation full of native plants available for marketing and growing in climates they are used to, without pesticides and without additional water usage. Aboriginal communities know these plants; we are the perfect agricultural experts to develop their uses. This is the opportunity a nation has of empowering Aboriginal communities in what we’ve always used for ourselves.
Australia’s European occupation instantly ignored what was already in abundance in all the vastness of the lands they plundered, setting up European food stocks that have always been labour-intensive and carbon-heavy. We continue to ignore a vast agricultural opportunity with foods that we drive past every day, whether in the city or in remote parts of the country.
Innovating our agricultural future will aid in the holistic needs the nation requires to recommence its commitment to lowering our carbon output.

 
Air
Another opportunity is an immediate change in the building standards that Australia currently ignores. All structures should have a minimum carbon output standard, the nation should lead the world in a national code for environmental building development, including how we control temperatures within structures. The technology exists, time to set a higher standard of green building development.

Water
The nation heard many reports from communities extremely worried about available water, not only for firefighting but simply for basic human rights needs of existence.
There’s no response from governments instigating reforms to what water rights and cultural water rights looks like. Why? Again corporate control of our human rights should not be tolerated.
The wastage of water through stormwater systems is baffling. Why are we not storing vast underground city tanks of stormwater runoff instead of sending it to the oceans and I don’t mean once it already has reached the river systems, but that which accumulates in our drainage systems across all communities in Australia? This should be flowing to local storage tanks. Japan has such facilities — infrastructure built to capture stormwater and filtrate it should be an arid lands priority.
These examples are a small sample of infrastructural changes and environmental changes that Australia's government could implement as a result of the horrific bushfire season that we have experienced. Will the Federal Government make such changes to assist with the community rebuilds that are now being asked for a productive long term planning future? Such steps will help make the drastic changes local economies need, not only now but into the future, to be able to continue functioning. This is especially needed through long periods of drought, rather than spending to sustain farming methods not suited to this continent from a century now long since gone.
Water, lands and air all require a different approach. It's time to accept facts, science and truth over the loudest voices which regularly prove to be false, ignorant and advocating for an economic opportunity that is now passing by each year.


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(AU) Climate Change Is A Serious Threat To National Security

Canberra Times - Robert Niven

Ah, the Australian summer! Christmas holidays, some jobs around the house, and shaving every day.
Because as you know, dear reader, to wear a half-face respirator you must be clean-shaven.
This fire season has seen the deployment of soldiers and reservists to aid in the firefighting efforts.
This fire season has seen the deployment of soldiers and reservists to aid in the firefighting efforts. Picture: Department of Defence
Robert Niven
Associate Professor Robert Niven is an academic at UNSW Canberra, with expertise in environmental contaminants and risk assessment.
This summer has certainly tested our boundaries far beyond normality, even for those of us who saw this coming.
We have now seen our dystopian future, along with its military language: we have "ember attacks", "firefronts", "firegrounds", and towns and people "lost".
Witness the daily briefings by heads of firefighting agencies, like WWII generals preparing for battle. Witness the ACT Emergency Services Agency's cross-border raids into NSW, taking the fight to the enemy, like the Israelis, or Kissinger's bombing of Cambodia.
To me this recalls Henry Lawson:
And many a rickety son of a gun, on the tides of the future tossed
Will tell how battles were really won that History says were lost ...
How 'this was our centre, and this a redoubt, and that was a scrub in the rear
And this was the point where the guards held out, and the enemy's lines were here'.
But just like the Israelis, or Kissinger, we can't fight this war forever - not this way.
Another great shock was our incredible shrinking Prime Minister, unresponsive, unaware even that a response was needed. Morrison the Unready.
Here is the paradox of modern Australia: a highly capable, practical, versatile, adventurous people, forged from many nations, who can bridge effortlessly between Europe, Asia and the Americas; a nation of highly trained specialists. Yet we allow ourselves to be mismanaged by a clueless blokey managerial class, across government, business and all of our institutions.
If our responses are presided over by Australia's utterly incapable political class, we may not even survive as a people or nation-state.
We have just witnessed thousands of people rendered homeless, many for years; the entrapment and forced evacuations of tens of thousands of people under dire circumstances; 10 million hectares burnt and more than 1 billion native animals killed; widespread damage to livestock, agricultural systems and the economy; lethal air pollution in several major cities; long-lasting impacts on our drinking water supplies; and exposure of major gaps in our communications, electricity and transport networks, fuel supplies, air pollutant monitoring systems and fire reporting. A national tragedy which no terrorist or adversary could have dreamt possible!
Yet no representative of Australia's security state, its media champions, or the well-funded security industry, has sought to make any comment or undertaken any act of leadership.
This is the problem of poor risk assessment: the risks catch up with you in the end. Deny the existence of some severe risks, or exaggerate some risks at the expense of others, and your entire risk assessment - hence your response - will be skewed.
Perhaps this explains our Prime Minister's caught-in-the-headlights response in December. Did he seriously believe his election rhetoric?
This is the most shocking dimension of the problem: a security Prime Minister had not imagined that climate-change risks are a matter of national security.
I don't claim to speak on their behalf, but I certainly think Australia owes our protesting schoolchildren an apology.
Can the Australian people see through the mirrors? Despite the vast sums spent on Australia's security over the past two decades, especially on terrorism and asylum seekers, Australia's security and defence apparatus seems antiquated and unfit for purpose. Is it just an edifice, an ornament used to win elections?
Could the $10 billion spent on onshore and offshore detention since 2006 have been better spent on climate action and preparedness?
Risk management is always a zero-sum game. A dollar spent on a lower risk here could have been spent on a higher risk elsewhere. Distort the risks, and you will pay the price. There are no right-wing or left-wing risks: they are all risks. They must all be assessed on the same scale.
What is the future? We can be sure that Australia's adversaries will have noted our newly exposed vulnerabilities - and exploit them. If this summer wasn't apocalyptic enough, imagine a new hybrid warfare with AI weapons, cyber disruption, influence campaigns and climate change? Sci-fi, cyber-fi, info-fi, cli-fi.
If our responses are presided over by Australia's utterly incapable political class, we may not even survive as a people or nation-state. We don't have time for another ten years of denialism, or failure to act on climate change. This is war.
As the first step, we must face up to Australia's incapable managers and talking heads across our society: the directionless political class, the press and talkback toadies, the rent-seeking business leaders, the public servant sycophants in suits. They must all be removed as a matter of national security.
We cannot continue our current stupidity as if nothing has changed.
It is time, and beyond time, to allow Australia's underlying capability, technical expertise and resolve - visible now in our emergency agencies, charities, brave reporters and local mayors - to shine through to our national leadership.

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27/01/2020

The Murdoch Media: Polluting Australia's Airwaves? (video)

Al Jazeera

Contributors
  • Richard Cooke - Contributing editor, The Monthly
  • Amy Remeikis - Political reporter, The Guardian Australia
  • Rodney Tiffen - Author, Rupert Murdoch: A Reassessment & Emeritus Professor, University of Sydney
  • James Painter - Research Associate, Reuters Institute and author, Climate Change in the Media
In Australia, soaring temperatures, extended droughts and strong winds have resulted in a wildfire season like no other.
Yet, as so much of the country burns, most of the Australian media outlets owned by Rupert Murdoch refuse to call this story what scientists say it is: a disaster exacerbated by the climate crisis.
Millions of acres have been burned out, dozens of people have died, wildlife is on the run and papers like The Australian and networks like Sky News Australia are not only dismissing the scientific consensus, but are trafficking in some false, debunked narratives.
Murdoch's media empire has long held a disproportionate influence over Australian politics and he and Prime Minister Scott Morrison are united on this issue.
Throw in Murdoch's close ties to Australia's powerful fossil fuel lobby and all the elements are there for a conspiracy of disinformation on the biggest, gravest story of our time.


As bushfires flare, Murdoch's news empire peddles climate scepticism.

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If You Love Australia, Climate Change Should Scare The Hell Out Of You

The Guardian - 

Conservatives love to talk up Australia ‘punching above its weight’, but they turn to self-hating cowards when it comes to climate change
‘Australia is a nation on the extremities, where climate change will affect and strip away what we love much sooner than will occur in Europe and North America.’ Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/AP
I love Australia.
It’s not a thing you hear too often from progressives. Mostly this is because we don’t go in for the pathetic jingo-nationalist, quasi-militaristic “love it or leave it”-style patriotism that John Howard attempted to link with a love of country.
But I do love Australia. I get an absurd amount of irrational pride when I hear of Australians doing well.
When I read stories that Indigenous rock art might be among the oldest in the world I get excited and think, yeah suck it, caves of Cantabria!
I can still remember where I was when John Aloisi scored the winning penalty against Uruguay (jumping up in my home in Cairns and cutting my hand on the overhead fan), and like all sensible Australians I let out a deep groan whenever I hear someone start yet again an “Aussie, Aussie, Aussie” chant at the tennis.
But my love has nothing to do with Australian Day and no, this is not an article about Australia Day.
I mean, of course we should change the date. As one who grew up in country South Australia from German ancestors, the English landing in Sydney has never resonated for me as anything more than New South Wales Proclamation Day. Thanks for the holiday and the cricket at Adelaide Oval, but otherwise ...
Keep the public holiday – make it the last Monday in January – it is nicely timed to signal an end to the summer holidays. Call it “Summer Day” or some such and then find another day to actually celebrate the nation. Better still, become a republic and make it that day. But I digress.
This is not about Australia Day, but climate change.
Because I love Australia, and the real question is why don’t conservatives who refuse to do more on climate change love Australia? Because climate change will destroy much of what we love about this country of ours.
Much of what makes Australia unique and beloved by those of us lucky enough to live here is linked to the extremes of our land and climate.
This summer has shown how precarious our Australian lifestyle is
In my lifetime I have mostly lived in country areas – in South Australia on the Murray River, in Redlynch just north of Cairns, and now in the northern suburbs of the bush capital that is Canberra.
So I love our biggest river and the farming areas of wheat, sheep and dairy around my home town to the grapes and fruit in the Riverland where during uni I picked fruit in the summer holidays.
Then there are the tropics with Mossman Gorge, the glorious drive from Cairns to Port Douglas, the Great Barrier Reef and the late afternoon rains.
And yes, I love the surrounds of Canberra – where I can live near a national park with kangaroos and echidnas and be able to see the snow caps on the Brindabellas in winter and fiery red of the trees in autumn and the blossoms in spring.
As anyone who has spent any time overseas knows, there is something about the sky in Australia that is different – that shade of blue so perfectly captured by Tom Roberts in his painting A Break Away!. That gorgeous clear, crisp blue.
I must admit I don’t love Dorothea Mackellar’s My Country. I find the poem rather maudlin, but perhaps I am biased because I am sick of hearing climate change-denying politicians recite it as though it is evidence that climate change has not occurred.
Because here’s the thing: when she published that poem in 1908, the average annual temperature in Australia was about 2C lower than it is now.
And those conservatives who recite the line about “a sunburnt country” ignore that climate change is going to wreak havoc with everything we love – that tenuous balance of droughts and flooding rains, the ability of agriculture to exist on “thirsty paddocks”, our rivers, our wildlife where “orchids deck the treetops”, even the crisp air and “pitiless blue sky”.
This summer has shown how precarious our Australian lifestyle is – the bushfires that have not stopped since September; the mix of fires, smoke, dust, hail (and that is just in Canberra in the past fortnight). We are a nation on the extremities, where climate change will affect and strip away what we love much sooner than will occur in Europe and North America.
No patriotic Australian can be anything but angry to read stories of a billion or more animals killed in the fires – especially when you realise the koalas on Kangaroo Island are chlamydia-free and are essentially the best protection against their extinction.
Our wildlife is so exceptional and precious that the upset in balance that comes from climate change will render some habitats unliveable.
To read that the platypus is facing extinction due to human activity exacerbated by climate change should have every patriotic Australian filled with rage.
Conservative patriots love to talk up Australia “punching above its weight” on things such as sport or business or war, but they turn to self-hating cowards when it comes to climate change.
Yes, Australia “only” accounts for around 1.3% of emissions (of course well above what you would expect given our population), but given the fragility of our ecosystem, any political leaders who profess to love Australia should be energising our diplomatic networks and using every economic and political lever we have to cajole, convince and encourage other nations to act on climate change.
We should do this even if it is out of purely selfish reasons of loving our country and wanting it to remain in the same state that has caused that love.
If you love Australia, climate change should scare the hell out of you because the reef, our rivers, our wildlife, our fresh air, even, as we have seen since December, our relaxed summer holidays are going to be stripped away from us.
Our government has more reason than most others outside of the Pacific Islands to be demanding global action on climate change.
Given our wealth we should be leading the way – leading by example rather than leading to ruin as our current government has been at the most recent climate change conferences.
What we love about Australia will be taken by climate change well before other nations who emit much more greenhouse gas will feel great changes. And that should enrage us and our representatives, and it should drive their actions.
I love Australia and so I want action on climate change. And if you love Australia, so should you.

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Blue Acceleration: Our Dash For Ocean Resources Mirrors What We’ve Already Done To The Land

The Conversation - 

Oil tankers load up in a port at twilight. Avigator Fortuner/Shutterstock


Humans are leaving a heavy footprint on the Earth, but when did we become the main driver of change in the planet’s ecosystems? Many scientists point to the 1950s, when all kinds of socioeconomic trends began accelerating. Since then, the world population has tripled. Fertiliser and water use expanded as more food was grown than ever before. The construction of motorways sped up to accommodate rising car ownership while international flights took off to satisfy a growing taste for tourism.
The scale of human demands on Earth grew beyond historic proportions. This post-war period became known as the “Great Acceleration”, and many believe it gave birth to the Anthropocene – the geological epoch during which human activity surpassed natural forces as the biggest influence on the functioning of Earth’s living systems.
But researchers studying the ocean are currently feeling a sense of déjà vu. Over the past three decades, patterns seen on land 70 years ago have been occurring in the ocean. We’re living through a “Blue Acceleration”, and it will have significant consequences for life on the blue planet.
Human claims on ocean resources and space have increased rapidly in the last three decades. Jouffray et al. (2020), Author provided
Why is the Blue Acceleration happening now?
As land-based resources have declined, hopes and expectations have increasingly turned to the ocean as a new engine of human development. Take deep sea mining. The international seabed and its mineral riches have excited commercial interest in recent years due to soaring commodity prices. According to the International Monetary Fund, the price of gold is up 454% since 2000, silver is up 317% and lead 493%. Around 1.4 million square kilometres of the seabed has been leased since 2001 by the International Seabed Authority for exploratory mining activities.
In some industries, technological advances have driven these trends. Virtually all offshore windfarms were installed in the last 20 years. The marine biotechnology sector scarcely existed at the end of the 20th century, and over 99% of genetic sequences from marine organisms found in patents were registered since 2000.
During the 1990s, as the Blue Acceleration got underway, the world population reached 6 billion. Today there are around 7.8 billion people. Population growth in water-scarce areas like the Middle East, Australia and South Africa has caused a three-fold growth in volumes of desalinated seawater generated since 2000. It has also meant a nearly four-fold increase in the volume of goods transported around the world by shipping since 2000.
Cargo ships enter Singapore – one of the busiest ports in the world. Donvictorio/Shutterstock
Why does the Blue Acceleration matter?
The ocean was once thought – even among prominent scientists – to be too vast to be changed by human activity. That view has been replaced by the uncomfortable recognition that not only can humans change the ocean, but also that the current trajectory of human demands on the ocean simply isn’t sustainable.
Consider the coast of Norway. The region is home to a multi-million dollar ocean-based oil and gas industry, aquaculture, popular cruises, busy shipping routes and fisheries. All of these interests are vying for the same ocean space, and their demands are growing. A five-fold increase in the number of salmon grown by aquaculture is expected by 2050, while the region’s tourism industry is predicted to welcome a five-fold increase in visitors by 2030. Meanwhile, vast offshore wind farms have been proposed off the southern tip of Norway.
The ocean is vast, but it’s not limitless. This saturation of ocean space is not unique to Norway, and a densely populated ocean space runs the risk of conflict across industries. Escapee salmon from aquaculture have spread sea lice in wild populations, creating tensions with Norwegian fisheries. An industrial accident in the oil and gas industry could cause significant damage to local seafood and tourism as well as the seafood export market.
A salmon farm off the coast of Vestland, Norway. Marius Dobilas/Shutterstock
More fundamentally, the burden on ocean ecosystems is growing, and we simply don’t know as much about these ecosystems as we would like. An ecologist once quipped that fisheries management is the same as forestry management. Instead of trees you’re counting fish, except you can’t see the fish, and they move.
Exploitation of the ocean has tended to precede exploration. One iconic example is the scaly-foot snail. This deep sea mollusc was discovered in 1999 and was on the IUCN Red List of endangered species by 2019. Why? As far as scientists can tell, the species is only found in three hydrothermal vent systems more than 2,400 metres below the Indian Ocean, covering less than 0.02 square kilometres. Today, two of the three vent systems fall within exploratory mining leases.

What next?
Billionaires dreaming of space colonies can dream a little closer to home. Even as the Blue Acceleration consumes more of the ocean’s resources, this vast area is every bit as mysterious as outer space. The surfaces of Mars and the Moon have been mapped in higher resolution than the seafloor. Life in the ocean has existed for two billion years longer than on land and an estimated 91% of marine species have not been described by science. Their genetic adaptations could help scientists develop the antibiotics and medicines of tomorrow, but they may disappear long before that’s possible.
Scientists have barely sampled the diversity of life in the deep sea. NOAA/Unsplash, CC BY-SA
The timing is right for guiding the Blue Acceleration towards more sustainable and equitable trajectories. The UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development is about to begin, a new international treaty on ocean biodiversity is in its final stages of negotiation, and in June 2020, governments, businesses, academics and civil society will assemble for the UN Ocean Conference in Lisbon.Yet many simple questions remain. Who is driving the Blue Acceleration? Who is benefiting from it? And who is being left out or forgotten? These are all urgent questions, but perhaps the most important and hardest to answer of all is how to create connections and engagement across all these groups. Otherwise, the drivers of the Blue Acceleration will be like the fish in the ecologist’s analogy: constantly moving, invisible and impossible to manage – before it is too late.

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26/01/2020

(AU) Dear Australia, Elegy For A Summer Of Loss

Croakey - Amy Coopes

The climate emergency seemed so abstract. It was something that was happening elsewhere, to other people. Until it wasn’t
‘The ochre and rust of another hazy sunrise spilling through the blinds heralded more of the same. Asphyxia. Inertia.’ The view in North Albury on 5 January 2020. Photograph: Amy Coopes
Amy Coopes
Over the summer, Amy Coopes spent long hours on Twitter sharing bushfire news, especially for her local community of Albury and surrounds, on Wiradjuri Country in southern NSW.
Her tweets also conveyed an angry frustration with the inadequacy of federal and state government responses to the bushfire health crisis, as well as to the climate health crisis more broadly.
In Dear Australia, Elegy For A Summer Of Loss, published as part of our ongoing contribution to the global collaboration, Covering Climate Now, Coopes urges readers to rise to the challenges facing us, not only this summer, but in the years ahead as the impact of the climate crisis becomes even more evident.
For months leading into this bleakest of summers, all anyone out this way could talk about was the dry. It crunched underfoot, was carried on the furnace-blast of a breeze, dust and dry leaves rattling down the wide avenues and riverbanks of the once mighty Murray River like a premonition of loss.
It was written in the furrowed brows of farmers poring over district forecasts like they were scripture – ethereal in their promise of deliverance or damnation. Dry as the bones, pronounced, beneath the hides of animals starving and stunned; landscape bleached as a fossil.
Flying into Sydney in early December as the fires ringing the city had just started to burn in earnest, I had a sense of something momentous and profound unfolding, although it still seemed like a distant crisis, one that was happening elsewhere, to other people.
The smoke was so thick every aircraft coming in was instructed to land with full instrumentation, so we spent 40 minutes in a holding pattern over enormous fire fronts, swinging lazy circles over great billowing plumes of ember and soot.
Walking across the tarmac from the turboprop, I glanced back over my shoulder at the blood orange sun, ash sprinkling from the amber sky.
Flying into Sydney on 6 December 2019. Photograph: Amy Coopes
When speaking at an event that evening, I joked that back home we had no water but the air was clean. Go west, where the skies are blue. I left the stash of P2 masks I’d picked up, only half-seriously, on my way to the airport with a friend who said she was taking an Uber to meetings a block away because her asthma was so bad she couldn’t walk more than a few hundred metres.
Even as I was going through the motions, paying lip service to the Anthropocene, it still seemed surreal, somehow. I got on to the plane and flew back over the Great Dividing Range, vast eucalypt tracts fizzing smoke, descending once again into the arid, but breathable, air of home.
There was a certain sense of foreboding in the hills in the lead-up to Christmas, as though the kindling landscape was holding its breath. The smoke swirled in from hundreds of kilometres north and settled for the festive season. We ate under grey skies, the house shuttered and our heads aching from the fumes, nights punctuated by the kind of toddler asthma attacks that leave you wired until dawn. What if he stops breathing?
Hard-earned pennies were pinched and scraped to install an air purifier in his room, and in the nursery too. We didn’t need to leave our beds to know what kind of day it would be. The ochre and rust of another hazy sunrise spilling through the blinds heralded more of the same. Asphyxia. Inertia. Well before it visited itself upon us, the taste was everywhere. Death.

New year
New year brought conflagration. The text messages began rolling in. Are you OK? Sure, why wouldn’t we be? Turn on the news.
It’s a gut-churning thing to see the names of places you love, those territories of the self and heart, suddenly headlines in a story of unspeakable horror. A tornado of flame, generated by infernos of such ferocity they create their own weather, rolling a fire truck. An unborn child who will never know their father, only his sacrifice.
As small communities, we are constellations of people and place, oriented and anchored by and to one another. Talmalmo, Jingellic, Walwa, Corryong are more than just names in a news broadcast or an emergency warning. They are home to our families, our patients, our colleagues, our friends.
For the diverse nations who live and gather along the tributaries of the Murray, the Milawa Billa, there could not be a grief more piercing than watching centuries of colonial mismanagement culminate in this ultimate desecration of country, with totem and traditional routes, sacred and spiritual places pared to ash.
We all know someone who has lost something; everything. Photos from friends of a wall of fire racing across paddocks, engulfing life as it was once known. Everything is gone. The scars on our landscape will heal, but will we?

A new decade
Instead of celebrating, we rang in the new decade listening to emergency broadcasts, refreshing the Country Fire Authority and Rural Fire Service feeds, and watching Australian Defence Force water tankers flying low over our house. People gathered, muted and pale, in their yards to watch the midnight fireworks a few blocks away as the southerly swept in, acrid with ash.
Hours before the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, called his late-night press conference to announce an unprecedented state of disaster and wholesale evacuations of East Gippsland and the north-east, we’d glanced at each other uneasily as our phones had chirped, simultaneously, with an emergency text. You need to leave were the first four words.
Surely we’ll be safe here, we said, images of what had played out in Mallacoota that week vivid in our minds. The closest bush was 2km away, the fire station on the corner. Still. The rule book appeared to have been torched. We’d been asking for years that the landlord clear the gutters; all it would take was an ember on the right sort of wind.
Where would we go if it came to it? Should we pack a bag? If we had to leave everything behind, what would be essential to take? We laughed at ourselves as we had these conversations – the river would be safe, if we could drive. The showground, if we had to walk. We found the passports.
There were other matters to consider as thousands of people from surrounding villages and communities streamed into town, towing caravans, horse floats, trailers crammed with all things practical and precious. The supermarkets began selling out of water, servos between here and more distant towns ran out of petrol. It seemed prepper paranoid, but we agreed I should go out and fill up the car and do a massive shop. Just in case.
Venturing out into the eerie still of the morning at sunrise, it could have been winter, a mephitic fug enveloping the town like mist. By the time I came out of the supermarket, where the water shelves were stripped bare and the aisles were hazy, the smoke had rolled in so thick they had disabled the automatic doors and taped a sign over the glass. Auto doors closed due to smoke. Please use side doors. Above the blood bank the sun rose, sanguineous; soporific.
Myer Centrepoint, central Albury, on 3 January. Photograph: Amy Coopes

Central Albury on 3 January. Photograph: Amy Coopes
The sports stadium down the street opened to evacuees, along with the showground. I’d never seen so many people in town, their apprehension as palpable as the baking heat.
The outpouring of support for displaced and dispossessed families and for firefighters was astonishing. Within hours of the RFS issuing their daily list of required items for affected communities and crews, it would be filled.
Traffic was banked up for kilometres along the bush blocks adjoining the RFS HQ, an operation of military precision marshalling locals and their stocked boots to the driveway to unload. Dozens of volunteers sorted goods on to pallets and into shipping containers for distribution to outlying communities where people were without power, water or food. Some had lost the roof over their heads, their world reduced to ash.
A ute sat in the RFS driveway, its tray overflowing with fruit and vegetables, a pallet stacked with eskies dropped off the by the environment minister, Sussan Ley, alongside.
We handed over half a dozen shopping bags, and a drawing by our three-year-old son for the fireys. A burly volunteer crouched down to shake his hand and pinned it up, pride of place, on the noticeboard. As we prepared to leave, a pensioner pulled up in a clapped-out Commodore, a plastic bag full of odds and ends proffered from the passenger seat. It isn’t much, I’m sorry. I blinked away tears.
Albury, January 2020. Photograph: Amy Coopes
Breaking
The day of the firestorm, 4 January, we hit a record-breaking 46C in town. Clumsy with foreboding, I stepped awkwardly off our back deck and broke my ankle, lying dazed and thirsty in the heat. While the worst of the winds swept across the firegrounds I was in hospital, nauseous with morphine and still gripping the “green whistle”, though it had long since been sucked empty.
By sunrise, I was sober, but the air outside was so toxic that, propped up in bed with towels stuffed around the doors and windows, I still had to wear a mask. Our 10-month-old was so hoarse and distressed I gave her Ventolin; she isn’t asthmatic.
The PM2.5 reading (something I had only a passing acquaintance with before this summer) climbed steadily throughout the day to almost 3,000 – 15 times the level considered hazardous – before the local monitoring station went offline for the best part of a day. It seemed symbolic of the cataclysm that had unfolded in the surrounding towns and valleys, where the skies were a filthy orange and visibility reduced to metres at best.
Days stretched into another week of wheezing confinement, while the prime minister bleated on about Australia being the best country in the world to raise kids. I cried when, during one of those impromptu toddler confidences, my son told me that one day he’d be older than me. I cried because I wonder if he will.
To live to be my age, he will have to make it to 2055, when climate change will have rendered much of the planet inhospitable to human life, driven mass extinctions of almost every kind of species, and unleashed civil unrest over resources like food and water on a scale at which there is no precedent in human history.
Moreso than the anxiety or political fury of this summer, I have been gripped by an insurmountable grief for my children and the life I took for granted which they will never be able to share.
In a matter of days, 9 January, there was another evacuation order, more fires. Several straddling state borders joined up to become a “megablaze”, terminology I’d never had need for before this grim new decade. Millions of hectares of pristine national park went up, places as familiar to me as laboured breath. The roof of Australia aflame, the Alps snowy at the height of summer, with ash.
As ever-increasing tracts of Mount Buffalo burned we could, on a rare clear evening, see the great fungating shadow of a pyrocumulonimbus cloud looming over the horizon, a sign that what raged below was so intense it was generating its own weather.
Fire maps for 10 January 2020 in NSW. Photograph: Amy Coopes 
Defining images
There are many images that will come to define this summer: smog settling so thick over Sydney Harbour its iconic landmarks were obscured, the starved and scorched koalas of Kangaroo Island, a masked schoolkid steering a tinny offshore as Mallacoota was devoured by an avaricious inferno, Scott Morrison hanging a shaka on the Waikiki waterfront.
But if you’ve lived in a fire zone, the pyroCb or cumulonimbus flammagenitus will stay with you forever, as a harbinger of the Anthropocene. Ignis aurum probat.
Ten days into the decade, the alerts sounded uncomfortably close to home. A grass fire on the Beechworth-Wodonga road – a route we would have travelled more times than you could count – was suddenly racing out of control towards the semi-rural outskirts of Wodonga, our sister city, home to some 40,000 people, just across the Murray River.
As quickly as it had started, fuelled by a wild southerly change with lightning and 100km/h winds, the blaze was declared emergency level. You are in danger. Act now to protect yourself. It is too late to leave. The safest option is to take shelter indoors immediately.
Those in the area who could evacuate made their way into town to shelter at The Cube performance space; others hosed down their roofs and gutters, watching anxiously as water bombing aircraft flew sorties overhead, trying to contain the advancing flames.
Defence crews were mobilised as the blaze spotted towards a string of barracks and bases where hundreds of unfortunate people displaced earlier in the week had taken refuge. In the next valley, residents of a relatively new development known as White Box Rise were urged to get out.
In among the frantic messages from loved ones as we again hit the headlines was a text from friends who had just bought in White Box and had been scheduled to return from Melbourne that week from their Christmas holiday with their newborn baby. We’d convinced them to delay due to the smoke. This is the other side of our hill, they captioned a screenshot of the emergency alert. Sweet Jesus. Our house.
As night fell, the winds eased, and a smattering of rain brought some much-needed reprieve. Evacuees were, in waves, permitted to return home. There was a nagging, contradictory sense that the gun was never really loaded, but we’d dodged a bullet nonetheless.

Golden words
Reams have already been written about this grim summer; an unwelcome but imperative clarion call to the millions of us sleepwalking toward the abyss.
Just two months ago I sat in a climate-themed medical conference where they discussed the need for field hospitals, colocation of emergency triage and primary care, new ways of doing business when the climate rendered business-as-usual obsolete. The fires were burning, even then, and Prof David Bowman warned us that this was a season like no other.
Yet it all seemed so abstract; so rhetorical. The climate emergency was something that was happening elsewhere, to other people. Until it wasn’t.
Andrews has described this as a summer of firsts; there’s been so many now they seem to have lost impact as time goes on.
But there are snapshots of this season I won’t forget. Toddlers receiving commendations for bravery on behalf of fathers who will miss a lifetime of milestones. Stepping on to the tarmac under that ominous, orange sky, the scarcest smattering of ash on the breeze. Evacuation sirens; smoke so dense it cancels out the sun. The fear in my son’s eyes as he struggled to catch a breath. Thousands upon thousands of livestock charred and scattered by the road; millions upon millions of native animals – likely entire species – incinerated.
We need new words for collective grief of this scale.
There are political observations to be made, and urgent agendas to be advanced if – and indeed, it feels so precariously like an if – we wish to survive. Already, the goalposts have shifted to “the new normal”; summers spent indoors lest the air chokes us all, Christmas under slate and noxious skies, evacuation orders covering ever-larger concentric circles until, at last, there is nothing left to burn and nowhere left to run.
If we are to take anything from this season of solastalgia, it must be the immense grace and goodwill, courage and conviction that abides in our communities and comes to the fore when it’s needed most.
As our climate becomes more hostile, perhaps the single greatest risk is that, in tandem, so do we. The learned helplessness of neoliberalism not only invites us to believe that we, as individuals, are powerless, it depends on it.
But we’ve seen something else entirely forged in these long months: leadership from the grassroots, the ability of communities to rally around one another not thanks to political action but in spite of it.
Ignis aurum probat, miseria fortes viros. As gold is tempered by fire, so strong men are tempered by suffering.
Collectively, our strength is infinite. Now, more than ever, we must live as testament to that.
Amy Coopes, photographed on 6 January 2020. Photograph: Amy Coopes


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