04/05/2020

(AU) Want An Economic Tonic, Mr Morrison? Use That Stimulus Money To Turbocharge Renewables

The Conversation |  |  | 

Chris Fithall/Flickr


  • Elizabeth Thurbon, Scientia Fellow and Associate Professor in International Relations / International Political Economy, UNSW
  • , Associate professor, University of Newcastle
  • , Professor Emeritus, Macquarie Business School, Macquarie University
  • , Senior Lecturer in the Department of Modern History, Politics & International Relations, Macquarie University
The chaos of COVID-19 has now hit global energy markets, creating an outcome unheard of in industrial history: negative oil prices.

With the world’s largest economies largely in lockdown, demand for oil has stagnated.

Essentially, the negative prices mean oil producers are willing to pay for the oil to be taken off their hands because soon, they will have nowhere to store it.

Federal energy minister Angus Taylor has proposed a partial solution: Australia will spend A$94 million buying up oil, to bolster domestic supplies and help stabilise global prices.

That strategy is a fool’s path to energy security.

Right now, the best way to shore up Australia’s future energy supplies is to invest economic stimulus money in renewables – essentially to manufacture our own energy security.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison with Angus Taylor, right, who wants Australia to buy surplus oil. Mick Tsikas/AAP


A flawed plan

Australia’s oil reserves have for years languished well below the International Energy Agency’s recommended 90 days. Taylor says his plan would address this, and help stabilise (read: push up) oil prices and restore faith in the global oil market on which Australia depends.

But the plan is undermined by a simple fact: unstable global oil prices have been a recurring problem for decades, largely for political reasons well beyond Australia’s control. We need look only to the price shocks triggered by the Yom-Kippur war of 1973, the Iraq war of 2003, and the Saudi drone attack of 2019 - to name just a few.

Price instability is all but guaranteed to increase in future, as climate change concerns drive insurers and investors away from fossil fuels and towards green energy.

The current chaos actually creates a much better opportunity for Australia: use the massive COVID-19 economic stimulus to manufacture real energy security in the form of renewables.

Buying large volumes of surplus oil will not ensure stable prices. Flickr


Renewables: a win-win

The price and supply of energy from fossil fuels is vulnerable to natural resource depletion, geopolitical tensions and climate change concerns. This is true not just for oil, but coal and gas too.

The only real path to energy security is manufactured energy such as solar panels, wind turbines, electrolysers, batteries and smart grids.

These technologies can turn infinite natural resources into energy, then store and distribute it to ensure stable supply.

Victoria and South Australia now enjoy higher levels of energy security thanks to large-scale stationary batteries that even out electricity peaks and troughs.

For example, a large-scale battery in Victoria stores energy produced by the Gannawarra solar farm. The battery provides energy during peak times when there is no sun.

Manufacturing energy is also important from an economic security perspective, promoting the creation of high-tech, high-wage industries.

These industries can create thousands of skilled jobs and open up massive new export markets – all while helping to mitigate climate change. This reality has been accepted by major East Asian economies, including China to South Korea, for more than a decade.

The Australian government must use its enormous stimulus to help local companies dramatically expand their wind, solar, hydrogen and energy storage investments. This would satisfy domestic energy needs and grow the new green export markets ready and waiting in Asia.

Asia presents huge export potential for Australia’s renewable energy. DAN HIMBRECHTS/AAP



A jobs boon

There is no shortage of projects waiting to be turbocharged. The government could start with Sun Cable, linking Australia’s and Singapore’s clean energy markets via an undersea cable.

It could also kickstart Australia’s clean hydrogen industry. According to the government’s own National Hydrogen Strategy, developing hydrogen would dramatically reduce Australia’s oil import reliance and energy costs and vastly expand its clean energy exports.

By simply following its own strategy, the government could create about 7,600 skilled and semi-skilled jobs and add about A$11 billion each year to Australia’s gross domestic product to 2050.

The cheaper energy prices that follow could help Australia revive its techno-industrial base by making energy-intensive manufacturing a viable proposition once again.

According to leading economist Ross Garnaut, Australia could then bring home its long-lost materials-processing industries and re-emerge as a world-leading exporter of (clean) steel and aluminium.

Geopolitical benefits would also flow from Australia becoming a green hydrogen superpower, such as reducing our worrying export dependence on China.

An investment injection in renewables would be a huge jobs boost. Flickr


Seize the moment

The idea of using the COVID-19 stimulus to turbocharge Australia’s clean energy shift is not pie in the sky. Indeed, doing so is the explicit recommendation of the International Energy Agency, which this week noted:
These huge spending programmes are likely to be once-in-a-generation in scale and will shape countries’ infrastructure for decades to come… Governments can … achieve both short-term economic gains and long-term benefits by making clean energy part of their stimulus plans.
COVID-19 has undoubtedly been disastrous for Australia and the world. But it creates new opportunities in energy, economic security and climate action. To seize these opportunities, the Morrison government must chart a new industrial course for the nation by manufacturing Australia’s energy security.

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'This Pandemic Is Nothing Compared To What Climate Change Has In Store'

TheJournal.ie - John Gibbons

John Gibbons lays out the stark climate facts and urges us to take coronavirus as a warning that it’s now time to act, or perish.


Protesters in Paris waiting for the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. Source: Apaydin Alain

John Gibbons is an environmental writer and commentator who specialises in covering the climate and biodiversity emergency.
He is a contributor to The Irish Times, The Guardian and DeSmog.uk and is a regular guest environmental commentator on broadcast media.
He blogs at Thinkorswim.ie and also runs the website Climatechange.ie.
IMAGINE FOR A moment that our government and others around the world had been given detailed information and warnings about the coronavirus years, even decades before it finally erupted.

Imagine also that experts had shown the path to minimising or even avoiding this global disaster, but our political and business leaders, uneasy about the costs of taking action and possible disruption to commerce, chose to ignore the expert warnings as alarmist and carried on regardless.

In reality, full-blown pandemics are vanishingly rare. Almost no human is alive today who lived in the time of the ‘Spanish Flu’ pandemic of 1918-19.

In the modern era, our collective cultural experience is that of taming, rather than being at the mercy of, nature in general and deadly diseases in particular. Consider smallpox: during the 20th century, it killed an estimated 300 million people worldwide. A global vaccination campaign eventually led to its eradication in 1980. Likewise, polio, another dreaded disease, has been almost completely vanquished by vaccination.

The damage done

Until very recently, premature death had been the norm for most humans. However, in the last five decades, largely freed from the threat of predators, large and small, our numbers on this earth have more than doubled, to over 7.8 billion, while average life expectancy in the same period has increased by well over a decade per person.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that this unprecedented global expansion of the human footprint has brought the biosphere, our living planet, to the brink of collapse. There are many ways of measuring this, such as the precipitous decline in biodiversity, the average annual loss of 15 billion trees, many of them from razed ancient rainforests.

A major report on biodiversity and ecosystems published last May found that the natural world is declining globally ‘at rates unprecedented in human history – and the rate of species extinctions is accelerating, with grave impacts on people around the world now likely’.

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) report concluded that around one million animal and plant species now face extinction in the coming decades. ‘The essential, interconnected web of life on Earth is getting smaller and increasingly frayed…this loss is a direct result of human activity and constitutes a direct threat to human well-being’, the IPBES report warned.

The unavoidable warming

We face an equally daunting and arguably more intractable challenge from climate change. In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a special report on the likely impacts of global warming at and beyond 1.5ºC over pre-industrial temperatures.
Arising from this landmark report, it emerged that in order to keep global temperatures within relatively safe limits, carbon emissions would have to fall by at least 45% by 2030, which is just ten years from now.
This is in line with commitments made by almost all the world’s leaders, including Ireland, when we signed up for the 2015 Paris Agreement, which legally committed us to doing everything possible to avoid extremely dangerous climate change at 2ºC and beyond.

This commitment was underlined in January 2020 by the all-party Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action when it agreed a minimum targeted emissions reduction of 7%+ per annum and this, in turn, has become the Green Party’s key precondition for entering into a coalition government.

virus-outbreak-germany-fridays-for-future
Activists of the fridays for future movement placed a poster at a tree in Erfurt, Germany, April 24, 2020. Source: Jens Meyer

According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the economic impact of the coronavirus is likely to see global carbon emissions fall by some 6% in 2020.
We need to flatten both the pandemic and climate change curves; we need to show the same determination and unity against climate change as against Covid-19”, according to WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. Action, he added, would be needed “for many generations ahead".
What this underlines is that to achieve a compound 7% annual emissions cut every year from now until 2030 would require the most radical rethink of how we organise our society and economy since the foundation of the state.

Can you see it happening?

Many are deeply sceptical. Former ‘Climate Action’ minister, Denis Naughten dismissed the 7% target as ‘unachievable’, claiming it would equate to banning every private car and slaughtering every (farm) animal in the country.

Naughten is at least being consistent. Back in 2017, he threatened to block implementation of the Paris Agreement at the EU level, claiming it was ‘unaffordable’ for Ireland to implement.

Since 2011, a succession of Fine Gael-led governments has stymied meaningful climate action. As a result, Ireland has now the third-highest per capita emissions in the EU, with the average Irish citizen accounting for more than double the emissions of their high-income Swedish counterparts.

As Sweden shows, ultra-low carbon solutions in transport, energy, home heating, agriculture and industry are indeed possible, but in Ireland, these have been held back by vested interest groups pursuing short-term agendas and TDs engaged in parish pump politics.

climate-change-protest-in-london-uk-14-feb-2020
A young environmentalists holds a placard during the protest at Parliament Square in London. Source: SIPA USA/PA Images

Even Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has had to concede he was “not proud of Ireland’s performance on climate…as far as I am concerned, we are a laggard”.

At what cost?

Apart from constant lobbying by commercial and agri-industrial groups, another reason politicians have run scared of climate action is that the issue is consistently framed in the Irish media in terms of the cost of tackling climate change. However, international studies have shown repeatedly that the price of inaction far outweighs the costs of addressing the crisis.

It is estimated that the cost of the coronavirus to the global economy is in the range of $2–$4 trillion this year. A 2018 report calculated that failure to rein in climate change would deliver a devastating $34 trillion hit to the global economy – many times greater than the economic chaos arising from the pandemic.

Other estimates are even less sanguine. An Australian study published in 2019 argues that ‘climate change represents a near to mid-term existential threat to human civilisation’.
Should global temperatures reach 3C over pre-industrial by mid-century, ‘the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model, with a high likelihood of human civilisation coming to an end’, the report warns.
So, the next time someone asks if we can ‘afford’ to tackle climate change, a better question might instead be: what price isn’t worth paying to avoid the collapse of civilisation?

Links

How Modelling Articulates The Science Of Climate Change

The Economist




TO IMAGINE EARTH without greenhouse gases in its atmosphere is to turn the familiar blue marble into a barren lump of rock and ice on which the average surface temperature hovers around -18ºC.

Such a planet would not receive less of the sunlight which is the ultimate source of all Earth’s warmth. But when the energy it absorbed from the sunlight was re-emitted as infrared radiation, as the laws of physics require, it would head unimpeded back out into space.

Greenhouse gases block that swift exit. Transparent to incoming sunlight, they absorb outgoing infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere and, in so doing, the surface below. The result is an average surface temperature of some 15ºC—warm enough for open seas and oceans and a vibrant biosphere.

In the late 19th century the discovery of the ice ages led scientists to the conclusion that climate could change on a global scale. Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, wondered if a weakened greenhouse effect might be to blame. Carbon dioxide was known to be a greenhouse gas: Eunice Foote, an American scientist, had found in the 1850s that the rate at which a sealed jar of air warmed up in sunlight depended on the level of carbon dioxide in that air. So Arrhenius—recently divorced, somewhat melancholy and in need of a project—began laboriously to calculate the effects on the climate of halving the atmosphere’s level of carbon dioxide.

Doing so required him to tackle a problem of the sort that most frustrates and most delights scientists who study the Earth system: a feedback loop through which a change in one factor affects another factor which, in turn, affects the first factor more.

Because water evaporates more slowly in cooler climes, the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere falls with the temperature. And water vapour, like carbon dioxide, is a greenhouse gas. Cooling the atmosphere dried the atmosphere which cooled the atmosphere further. Many pencils and thousands of sheets of paper into his exploration of this, Arrhenius concluded that halving the carbon-dioxide level would cool the planet by 5ºC (9ºF).

He also noted that the same relation would hold the other way round: double the carbon dioxide and you would get 5ºC of warming. Industry’s coal burning could thus warm the world—but only, he thought, very slowly indeed. He never imagined that the carbon-dioxide level would increase by a third in just a century.

Around the same time as Arrhenius was pondering the climate, a Norwegian scientist called Vilhelm Bjerknes was working on the physics of how heat drives fluid flow. His students applied these insights to large scale flows in the atmosphere and the oceans, laying the foundations of 20th-century weather forecasting. In 1950 one of those students’ students, Ragnar Fjørtoft, was part of the team which first programmed a computer to forecast the weather by solving such equations.

The computer models central to today’s climate research bring together Arrhenius’s curiosity and Bjerknes’s techniques. Programmes developed from weather-forecasting software calculate how the level of carbon-dioxide and other greenhouse gases is likely to affect the world’s flows of heat, energy and water, and through them the future climate. To do so they use computers that can be some 25trn times faster than the one used in 1950.

These climate models do not treat the atmosphere as a whole. They divide it into millions of “cells”. The conditions in each of these cells depend on the conditions in its neighbours above, below and to the sides as well as on its own history. The idea is to calculate how conditions in each cell change over time.

Unlike a weather forecast, which tries to predict how a specific state of the atmosphere will evolve over a few days, these climate models simulate years, even centuries, of weather in order to discover the averages and probability distributions that define the climate—the envelope which constrains the norms and extremes of future weather.

Dozens of teams at meteorological and research organisations around the world run such models, each using different code to capture the climate’s underlying mechanisms and study everything from future peak rainfall to the tracks of storms to shifts in seasonality. Since 1995 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CMIP, has brought these teams together by providing standardised tasks for their models and then looking at the range of results.

Thus, for example, the 56 different models considered in the fifth of the CMIP projects, which concluded in 2013, found that doubling the carbon-dioxide level would, in time, bring about a warming of between 1.5ºC and 4.5ºC. The uncertainty in what the models suggest at smaller scales is greater still. Different models can provide very different pictures of the future of regional climates.

Rows and floes of angel hair

The wide range of outcomes is, for the most part, down to the fact that no two models represent the mechanisms of the climate—and particularly its feedbacks—in precisely the same way. Some ways of doing things can be ruled out because the models they produce fail to capture the behaviour of the climate as it is, or as it was in the past (studies of the low-carbon-dioxide ice ages provide useful calibration, which would have pleased Arrhenius).

But among models which reproduce past and current climates reasonably well, there is no clear way to say which one’s representations are most reliable. The differences between the models represent a basic level of uncertainty, given the current state of knowledge.

This endemic uncertainty, though, does not mean the models have nothing useful to say. Given how long modelling has been going on, it is now possible to compare predictions made decades ago with the way things have turned out.

A study published last year systematically assessed what models published between the 1970s and 2007 had said about the way the climate would respond to steady rises in carbon dioxide. It found that for 14 out of 17 models what had happened had been within the model’s error bars; of the other three, two had overshot, one had undershot. Taking the models seriously would have been a good bet.

The most important source of uncertainty in the models lies in the clouds. As greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere its humidity changes, as does the extent to which it cools with altitude. These changes affect how clouds develop; the clouds, in turn, change surface temperature. Most clouds warm the world; some cool it.

The problem is that the processes which control a cloud’s thickness, lifetime and other qualities work on pretty small scales. The models do not. Even if every layer of the atmosphere is represented by hundreds of thousands of grid cells, they still end up being hundreds of kilometres on a side—much too large to capture the processes responsible for individual clouds.

Not all the feedbacks sit squarely within the atmosphere; some extend beneath it. Various feedbacks link the atmosphere to the oceans, which store, move and release heat in ways that do a great deal to shape the climate. In the 1960s modellers began trying to capture these effects by “coupling” models of the ocean to models of the atmosphere, so that what they saw in the atmosphere reflected changes in the oceans and vice versa.

Feedbacks involving the land matter, too. Cold weather brings snow; snowy ground, especially under clear skies, reflects away more sunlight, cooling things further. Biology adds yet more complexity. A tropical forest pumps water vapour into the atmosphere with far greater efficiency than a savannah does.

In warmer oceans it is harder for nutrients to rise to the surface, which reduces the ability of plankton to suck carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Melting permafrost produces copious microbial methane—a gas which absorbs infrared much more strongly than carbon dioxide does. Over the decades modellers have attempted to build more and more of these interrelationships into their models, adding greatly to their complexity.

Unfortunately increasing complexity does not always reduce uncertainty. A model which ignores, say, the instability of ice sheets—as most did until recently—is clearly missing something important. However, because there are always different ways to incorporate something new, two models updated to capture ice-sheet dynamics may diverge more after this “improvement” than they did when, unrealistically, they simply ignored the issue. In the CMIP6 process, which is currently winding up, preliminary results show a wider range of uncertainties than was seen in CMIP5.

The biggest source of uncertainty, though, lies not inside the models but outside them. Climate change is a problem because human activity is adding carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere at a rate that is both prodigious and impossible for the physics, chemistry and biology encoded in the models to predict.

To estimate how changes in policy might affect emissions a different family of models is used—“integrated assessment models” (IAMs) which import simplified results from climate models into models of the economy.

One of the things that CMIP5 asked climate modellers to look at is the way that the climate might evolve if emissions followed four standardised “pathways” developed from four particular IAMs in the 2000s. Three were generated from IAMs trying to simulate various types of climate policy. The fourth, RCP8.5, though often referred to as “business as usual”, was generated from an IAM run featuring high population growth, low technological progress and very large scale use of coal. As a result it shows emissions increasing at a spectacular rate, which makes it scary, but not a helpful baseline.

LARGE IMAGE

The uncertainties in what the models predicted was as striking as ever (see chart). But they all agreed that only the pathway embodying the strongest climate action—much stronger than what is seen and promised today—might allow the world to keep the temperature rise since the 18th century well below 2ºC in the 21st, the target enshrined in the Paris agreement of 2015.

Links

03/05/2020

Satellites Show Melting Ice Sheets In Antarctica And Greenland Have Contributed To 14 mm Sea Level Rise In 16 Years

ABC Science - Zoe Kean

Loss of ice from the margins of Antarctica outweighs the gains in the interior of the continent. (Supplied: British Antarctic Survey)

Key Points
  • NASA satellites help scientists track Greenland and Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise
  • Melting Antarctic ice shelves lead to glaciers flowing into the sea
  • More research is needed to understand how East Antarctica is responding to climate change
NASA satellites bearing advanced laser technology have recorded the most accurate picture of large scale ice sheet melting in Greenland and Antarctica to date.

Melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica contributed to 14 millimetres of sea level rise between 2003 and 2019, according to a study published today in the journal Science.

"[Into the future] with that 14 millimetres happening every 16 years, it adds up to a pretty significant amount of sea level rise", said lead author Benjamin Smith of the University of Washington.

If all the melt observed in this study was to flood an area the size of Australia, we would all be wading through 66 centimetres of water, Professor Smith calculated.

Two satellites, the ICESat-1 and the more advanced ICESat-2, were equipped with "laser altimeters" that bounced light pulses off the ice sheets to determine their height.

Researchers compared measurements taken in the early 2000s by ICESat-1 with measurements taken in 2018 and 2019 by ICESat-2.

"The two sets of measurements intersect each other at millions of points, it's those intersections that let us map how the ice changed between ICESat-1 and ICESat-2," Professor Smith said.

"This is a much more significant climatic signal than what you might see if you just surveyed for two or three years," Professor Smith said.

Greenland vs Antarctica

Previous satellite data from NASA shows the rate of global mean sea level rise is accelerating by an average of 3.4 millimetres per year.

Melting ice from Greenland and Antarctica contributes to about a third of the sea level rise we're seeing, Professor Smith said.

The latest data showed melting was more extreme in Greenland than in Antarctica.

Greenland's ice cap calving (Gfycat)

Greenland's ice sheet lost an average of 200 gigatons of ice a year, contributing up to two thirds of the sea level rise. The majority of this ice loss was from thinning of coastal glaciers, which have been impacted by warmer summer temperatures melting the ice on the surface, and warmer ocean temperatures eroding the edges of the ice.
"Greenland melts at the surface quite a bit every year whereas the surface of Antarctica does not melt over a significantly large areas of the continent," he said.
The satellite data showed Antarctica lost an average of 118 gigatons of ice in the same time frame.

While there are gains in ice coverage in the interior, due to increased snowfall, these did not outweigh the losses in coastal areas.

"The total amount of thinning vastly outweighs the small amount of thickening in the interior of the ice sheets," Professor Smith said.

Satellite data shows the amount of ice gained (blue) or lost (red and purple) by Antarctica between 2003 and 2019 (Supplied: Smith et al/Science)

The majority of Antarctica's contribution to sea level rise comes from its glaciers flowing into the ocean as warmer water erodes the ice. This process is far more rapid in West Antarctica than in East Antarctica where it is quite patchy, with areas of thickening and thinning.

Measuring ice shelf losses

Glaciologist Matt King said a strength of this research is that it observed both grounded ice such as glaciers and land ice extending onto the sea, whereas previous studies focused on just one or the other.

"We know that ice on land responds to ice extending onto the sea, so looking at the ice sheet as a whole is an advance," said Professor King of the University of Tasmania.

Study co-author Helen Amanda Fricker of the University of California said land-based ice that extends out to sea has previously been excluded because melting ice on land directly contributes to sea level rises, whereas ice that floats on water does not.

But, she said, scientists need to know how ice sheets are changing if we are going to be able to predict how grounded ice might leave the Antarctic continent.

"Knowing this won't slow it down, but it will help us make informed decisions."

The anatomy of an ice shelf. (Supplied: Dr Sue Cook)

"We have discovered that where grounded ice changes most is where the ice shelves are thinning," said Professor Fricker While ice shelves, which float on the ocean, don't contribute to sea level rise, they act like a barrier, anchoring glaciers on the Antarctic landmass.
"Antarctica functions a bit like a giant apple pie, when the crust is removed, the filling leaks out."
Research needed where Australia is based

Professor Fricker is calling for more on-the-ground research in East Antarctica, where Australia's research bases are located.

"Key systems are changing in East Antarctica, it's in Australia's backyard," she said.

Professor King agreed.

"Satellite studies provide a great continental view, but we also need good field measurements to understand what's going on in these vulnerable places," said Professor King.

"We don't really know enough about East Antarctica to understand the changes going on," he said.

"So we are left with a general state of confusion, flying blind from both directions."

Links

(AU) Australia Listened To The Experts On Coronavirus. It's Time We Heard Them On Climate Change

The GuardianLenore Taylor

Economic reconstruction is a chance to speed up decarbonisation, and the pandemic has shown a different kind of politics is possible

‘The energy market operator says Australia could accommodate levels of up to 75% “instant” wind and solar penetration in its main grid by 2025.’ Photograph: Tim Phillips Photos/Getty Images

Lenore Taylor is Guardian Australia's editor. She has won two Walkley awards and has twice won the Paul Lyneham award for excellence in press gallery journalism. Lenore co-authored, Shitstorm, a book on the Rudd government's response to the global economic crisis.
We’re already being swamped with ideas about “reforms” needed to recover from the pandemic crisis.

But the word reform is like gift wrap – a handy cover for any offering, thought-through or otherwise.

Perhaps we should ditch the word entirely, and with it the forest of feelpinions about what governments “must” do to advance an author’s previously-held ideological positioning in the post-corona world.

Imagine if we took just two lessons from the way Australian governments responded to the coronavirus: that good decisions are made when they consider the evidence and the best available expert advice; and that policy-making can accommodate reasonable differences of opinion, without becoming a “war”.

Think, as Laura Tingle did in a piece for the ABC’s 7.30 this week, of the difference it would make if interviewers and commentators allowed room for discussion of complex and competing ideas, before demanding that politicians rule them “in” or “out”, or before finding a backbencher who will say they might cross the floor on a policy that conflicts with their ideological prejudice – even if that policy hasn’t yet been outlined.

Now consider if those principles were applied to climate policy in Australia.

I concede that’s quite a leap given the past decade of mind-numbing debate, during which experts have struggled to get a look in. But in the background, some have been giving it a shot.

For six years now leading business, environmental, investor, union, farming and social welfare groups have been trying, largely in vain, to create a space for a sensible discussion about global heating, and to give Australian politicians a way to retreat from the self-defeating culture war that has scuppered all attempts at policy.

They wouldn’t put it this way, but in effect the environmentalists, desperate for Australia to make some meaningful move towards reducing emissions, and the business groups, desperate for some kind of investment certainty, have been trying to save Australia’s politicians from themselves.

The starting point for the Australian Climate Roundtable’s deliberations is that Australia needs to reach net zero emissions, and that delaying action just increases the cost of reaching that goal. Unremarkable propositions in any fact-based forum, but in some Coalition circles, still close to heresy.

Now the roundtable, including its business members, argues that this post-corona reconstruction is a chance to speed up decarbonising the economy.

The Business Council of Australia chief executive, Jennifer Westacott, argued in an opinion piece that the post-corona discussion should divest itself of “ideological constraints”.

“In resuscitating our economy, we can tackle some of our most vexed problems. Every dollar we invest in energy should be a dollar towards a lower carbon economy and lower energy bills,” she wrote.

And expert evidence about what might be possible has been flooding in by the day.

The Australian Energy Market Operator this week released its long awaited “renewable integration study”, which found Australia could accommodate levels of up to 75% “instant” penetration of wind and solar in its main grid by 2025 – that we have the know-how, but need to update market and regulatory settings.

Think about that next time someone starts burbling on about the impossibility of a renewable-dependent grid coping “when the wind don’t blow and the sun don’t shine”.

Less than a year after an election in which Bill Shorten’s target of 45% renewables by 2030 was attacked for being “unachievable” and “economy wrecking”, the expert market operator says 75% is technically achievable – and in just five years time.

And then there was the advice from the International Energy Agency this week that renewable electricity will be the only energy source resilient to the biggest global energy shock in 70 years, triggered by the pandemic.

The Morrison government is supposed to be working on a “roadmap” towards some kind of long-term emissions reduction policy, understandably delayed while it deals with the pandemic.

It could draw on the work of a bunch of expert groups who have already had a go – the latest Climateworks report released earlier this month found that net zero emissions by 2035 is possible in Australia, using technologies that are mostly already mature and available.

The CSIRO’s roadmap released last year found there was no trade-off between economic growth and transitioning to zero emissions, and in fact strong action could lead to GDP growth, an increase in real wages and net zero emissions by 2050.

But then, apparently pre-empting his own policy, and contradicting his own government’s claim to be “technology neutral”, the energy minister, Angus Taylor, has spent the week calling for a “gas-fired recovery”, variously advocating more gas-peaking plants, more long-term gas supply for manufacturers and more onshore gas production.

The details of what he’s advocating remain opaque, but as the Grattan Institute’s energy expert Tony Wood points out, renewed suggestions of government intervention are only likely to deter investment, presumably the opposite of what Taylor is seeking.

If there’s a coherent policy in there somewhere, it really is time for the government to unwrap it. The experts have been waiting for years, and it turns out that listening to them is a good idea.

Links

‘A Bomb In The Center Of The Climate Movement’: Michael Moore Damages Our Most Important Goal

Rolling Stone

It hurts to be personally attacked in a movie. It hurts more to see a movement divided

Jeff Chiu/AP/Shutterstock; Craig Lassig/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

Bill McKibben is an American environmentalist, author, and journalist who has written extensively on the impact of global warming.
He is the Schumann Distinguished Scholar at Middlebury College and leader of the climate campaign group 350.org.
He has authored a dozen books about the environment, including his first, The End of Nature (1989), about climate change.
If you’re looking for a little distraction from the news of the pandemic — something a little gossipy, but with a point at the end about how change happens in the world — this essay may soak up a few minutes.

I’ll tell the story chronologically, starting a couple of weeks ago on the eve of the 50th Earth Day. I’d already recorded my part for the Earth Day Live webcast, interviewing the great indigenous activists Joye Braum and Tara Houska about their pipeline battles. And then the news arrived that Oxford University — the most prestigious educational institution on planet earth — had decided to divest from fossil fuels. It was one of the great victories in that grinding eight-year campaign, which has become by some measures the biggest anti-corporate fight in history, and I wrote a quick email to Naomi Klein, who helped me cook it up, so that we could gloat together just a bit. I was, it must be said, feeling pleased with myself.

Ah, but pride goeth before a fall. In the next couple of hours came a very different piece of news. People started writing to tell me that the filmmaker Michael Moore had just released a movie called Planet of the Humans on YouTube. That wasn’t entirely out of the blue — I’d been hearing rumors of the film and its attacks on me since the summer before, and I’d taken them seriously. Various colleagues and I had written to point out that they were wrong; Naomi had in fact taken Moore aside in an MSNBC greenroom and laid it all out, repeating the exchange with him while campaigning in Iowa. But none of that had apparently worked; indeed, from what people were now writing to tell me, I was the main foil of the film. I put together a quick response, and I hoped that it would blow over.

But it didn’t. Perhaps because everyone’s at home with not much to do, lots of people watched it — millions by some counts. And I began to hear from them. Here’s an email that arrived first thing Earth Day morning: “Happy Dead Earth Day. Time’s up Bill. You have been outed for fraud. What a MASSIVE disappointment you are. Sell out. Hypocrite beyond imagination. Biomass bullshit seller. Forest destroyer. How is it possible you have led all of us down the same death trap road of false hope? The YOUTH! How dare you! Shame on you!” More followed, to say the least. (If you’re wondering whether it hurts to get this kind of email, the answer is yes. In a time of a pandemic, it’s hard to feel too much self-pity, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy to read someone accusing you of betraying your own life’s work.)

Basically, Moore and his colleagues have made a film attacking renewable energy as a sham and arguing that the environmental movement is just a tool of corporations trying to make money off green energy. “One of the most dangerous things right now is the illusion that alternative technologies, like wind and solar, are somehow different from fossil fuels,” Ozzie Zehner, one of the film’s producers, tells the camera. When visiting a solar facility, he insists: “You use more fossil fuels to do this than you’re getting benefit from it. You would have been better off just burning the fossil fuels.”

That’s not true, not in the least — the time it takes for a solar panel to pay back the energy used to build it is well under four years. Since it lasts three decades, it means 90 percent of the power it produces is pollution-free, compared with zero percent of the power from burning fossil fuels. It turns out that pretty much everything else about the movie was wrong — there have been at least 24 debunkings, many of them painfully rigorous; as one scientist wrote in a particularly scathing takedown, “Planet of the Humans is deeply useless. Watch anything else.” Moore’s fellow filmmaker Josh Fox, in an epic unraveling of the film’s endless lies, got in one of the best shots: “Releasing this on the eve of Earth Day’s 50th anniversary is like Bernie Sanders endorsing Donald Trump while chugging hydroxychloroquine.”

Here’s long-time solar activist (and, oh yeah, the guy who wrote “Heart of Gold“) Neil Young: “The amount of damage this film tries to create (succeeding in the VERY short term) will ultimately bring light to the real facts, which are turning up everywhere in response to Michael Moore’s new erroneous and headline grabbing TV publicity tour of misinformation. A very damaging film to the human struggle for a better way of living, Moore’s film completely destroys whatever reputation he has earned so far.”

But enough about the future of humanity. Let’s talk about me, since I got to be the stand-in for “corporate environmentalism” for much of the film. Cherry-picking a few clips culled from the approximately ten zillion interviews, speeches, and panels I’ve engaged in these past decades, the filmmaker made two basic points. One, that I was a big proponent of biomass energy — that is, burning trees to generate power. Two, that I was a key part of “green capitalism,” trying somehow to profit from selling people on the false promise of solar and wind power.

The first has at least a kernel of — not truth, but history. Almost two decades ago, wonderful students at the rural Vermont college where I teach proposed that the oil-burning heat plant be replaced with one that burned woodchips. I thought it was a good idea, and when it finally came to pass in 2009, I spoke at its inauguration. This was not a weird idea — at the time, most environmentalists thought likewise, because as new trees grow back in place of the ones that have been cut, they will soak up the carbon released in the burning. “At that point I would have done the same,” Bill Moomaw, who is one of the most eminent researchers in the field, put it. “Because we hadn’t done the math yet.” But as scientists did begin to do the math, a different truth emerged: Burning trees put a puff of carbon into air now, which is when the climate system is breaking. That this carbon may be sucked up a generation hence is therefore not much help. And as that science emerged, I changed my mind, becoming an outspoken opponent of biomass. (Something else happened too: the efficiency of solar and wind power soared, meaning there was ever less need to burn anything. The film’s attacks on renewable energy are antique, dating from a decade ago, when a solar panel cost 10 times what it does today; engineers have since done their job, making renewable energy the cheapest way to generate power on our planet.)

As for the second charge, it’s simply a lie — indeed, it’s the kind of breathtaking black-is-white lie that’s come to characterize our public life at least since Vietnam veteran John Kerry was accused by the right wing of committing treason. I have never taken a penny from green energy companies or mutual funds or anyone else with a role in these fights. I’ve never been paid by environmental groups either, not even 350.org, which I founded and which I’ve given all I have to give. I’ve written books and given endless talks challenging the prevailing ideas about economic growth, and I’ve run campaigns designed entirely to cut consumption.

Let me speak as plainly as I know how. When it comes to me, it’s not that Planet of the Humans overstates the case, or gets it partly wrong, or opens an argument worth having: it is a sewer. I’ll finish with just the smallest example: In the credits, it defensively claims that I began opposing biomass only last year, in response to news of this film. In fact, as we wrote the filmmakers on numerous occasions, I’ve been on the record about the topic for years. Here, for instance, is a piece from 2016 with the not very subtle title “Burning Trees for Electricity Is a Bad Idea.” Please read it. When you do, you will see that the filmmakers didn’t just engage in bad journalism (though they surely did), they acted in bad faith. They didn’t just behave dishonestly (though they surely did), they behaved dishonorably. I’m aware that in our current salty era those words may sound mild, but in my lexicon they are the strongest possible epithets.

A reasonable question: Given that the film has been so thoroughly debunked, can it really cause problems?

I’ve spent the past three decades, ever since I wrote The End of Nature at the age of 28, deeply committed to realism: no fantasy, no spin, no wish will help us deal with the basic molecular structure of carbon dioxide. That commitment to reality has to carry over into every part of one’s life. So, realistically, most of the millions of people who watch this film will not read the careful debunkings. Most of them will assume, in the way we all do when we watch something, that there must be something there, it must be half true anyway. (That’s why propaganda is effective). To give one more small example from my email, here’s a note I received the other day:

Stop killing trees you lying murderer.  
Forests are life.  you are killing us all.  
You can change your stance and turn back the tide of destruction you unleashed… or perhaps just go throw yourself in a fire and go down as one of the worst humans to ever exist.  
Straight up evil. 

When I wrote back (and I always write back, as politely as I know how), explaining what I’ve explained in this essay, the writer’s reply was: “I have read your dribble and am glad someone has finally called you out for the puppet you are.”

I don’t think most people are that mean-spirited (or maybe I just hope not) and of course dozens of friends within the climate movement wrote to express their solidarity and love. But I have no doubt that many of the people who’ve seen the film are, at the least, disheartened. Here’s what one hard-working climate activist wrote me from Montana: “The problem is, this movie is all over the place and is already causing divisions and conflicts in climate action groups that I’m involved in — it’s like they detonated a bomb in the center of the climate action movement.” Which I’m sure is true (and I’m sure it’s why the film has been so well-received at Breitbart and every other climate-denier operation on the planet).

Which may well mean that for now — maybe for a long time — my work will be at least somewhat compromised and less effective, because my work is mostly about trying to build that movement, to make it larger and more unified. Yes, there are days (and more of them than I would have expected) when it’s about going to jail, but mostly it’s been a long, long process of reaching out and talking to groups and people — helping them raise consciousness (and sometimes helping them raise money). I’ve spent a very large percentage of my life in high school auditoriums and at Rotary lunches; I’ve traveled to every corner of the world, and in recent years, as the technology improved, I’ve traveled too by low-carbon Skype and Zoom. (Pandemic communications is old-school to me; for some reason I now forget, my invaluable colleague Vanessa Arcara assembled a list of the virtual talks I gave in one stretch of 2015-16, which will give you a sense of what my days are like). But if those visits and talks end up igniting suspicion and controversy, then they’re obviously less useful. I want to help important organizing, not disrupt it.

I’m used to attacks, of course. The oil industry has been after me for decades, and some of their tactics have been far worse than Moore’s — the period when they assigned videographers to literally follow me whenever I set out the door was another low point in my life, but I didn’t complain until it seemed like they were doing the same to my daughter. I’ve gotten used to an endless and creative series of death threats — each one jolts you for a moment, but clearly, since I’m still here, most of them are not serious. And again, I’ve only complained once, when they were bandying about my home address and particular methods of execution on well-trafficked websites. But those kind of attacks don’t confuse and divide environmentalists; if anything, they do the opposite. They’re a punch in the nose, which turns out to be far less damaging than a stab in the back.

And I think this leads to the larger point, about what’s useful for movements and what isn’t.

I’m going to begin by boasting for a moment, if only to make myself feel a little better: Here’s what I’d like people to recall from my work these past years, as opposed to the notion that I am a forest-raping sellout. See if you can figure out what every item on this short list has in common.
  • My role in helping found and build an actual climate movement. I decided at a certain point that we weren’t in an argument over global warming (we’d won that), but that we were in a fight. And the other side — the fossil fuel industry — was so powerful they were going to win unless we built some power of our own. Hence my decision to go beyond writing and to try to learn how to organize. In 2007, with my seven original undergraduate collaborators, we formed Step It Up and found people to organize 1,500 simultaneous demonstrations across the U.S.; two years later, at the start of 350.org, the numbers were 5,200 rallies in 181 countries.
  • My role in helping nationalize the fight over the Keystone XL pipeline, and in the process lay the seedbed for much of the ‘keep it in the ground’ work that has led to challenges of fossil fuel infrastructure around the world.
  • My role in helping launch the divestment fight, with a piece of writing and with the Do the Math campaign around the U.S. and then Europe and the antipodes. (Here’s the movie from that; I think it’s better than Moore’s). We’re currently at $14 trillion in endowments and portfolios that have divested.
  • My role in helping solidify and unify the newer fight against the banks, asset managers, and insurance companies that fund the fossil fuel movement — the StopTheMoneyPipeline.com effort that is fighting pitched battles right now with Chase Bank, Liberty Mutual, and BlackRock.
The thing that unites these four things is the word “helping.” So many others have fought just as hard. If I started listing names I literally would never stop; the pleasure has been in the teamwork and collaboration.

And that’s the point: Movements only really work if they grow, if they build. If they move. And that’s almost always an additive process. The trick, I think, is figuring out how to make it possible for more people to join in. When we started 350.org, we gave out the logo to anyone. It was like a potluck supper; if you organized a little demonstration in your town, you were a part. (One of the early protests we were proudest of involved exactly one woman: an Iranian in a headscarf who worked her way through half a dozen army checkpoints to hold up a sign). The Keystone fight was well underway when we came on board — indigenous groups and Midwest ranchers had been fighting hard — but we helped to create ways to let anyone anywhere join in, framing it as a fight about climate change as well as land. Divestment, similarly: not everyone has a coal mine in their backyard, but everyone’s connected through a school or a church or a pension to a pot of money. Banks may be the best example: Chase has tens of millions of credit cards out there. Or, to take the example of the movie, biomass: Thank heaven for campaigners like Danna Smith and Mary Booth and Rachel Smolker, who built a movement to help explain why this was a bad idea. It worked for me — I changed my mind, which is what you want movements to do.

You can, in other words, change the zeitgeist if you get enough people engaged — if they both see the crisis and feel like they have a way in.

But that’s precisely what’s undercut when people operate as Moore has with his film. The entirely predictable effect is to build cynicism, indeed a kind of nihilism. It’s to drive down turnout — not just in elections, but in citizenship generally. If you tell a bunch of lies about groups and leaders and as a result people don’t trust them, who benefits?

To be clear, I doubt that was Moore’s goal. I think his goal was to build his brand a little more, as an edgy “truth teller” who will take on “establishments.” (That he has, over time, become a millionaire carnival barker who punches down, not up — well, that’s what brand management is for). But the actual effect in the real world is entirely predictable. That’s why Breitbart loves the movie. That’s why the tar-sands guys in Alberta are chortling. “People are going ga-ga over it,” Margareta Dovgal, a researcher with the pro-industry Canadian group Resource Works, told reporters. The message they’re taking from it is “we’re going to need fossil fuels for a long time to come.”

Actually, we won’t. We’ve dropped the price of sun and wind 90 percent in the last decade (since the days when Moore, et al. were apparently collecting their data). As Stanford professor Marc Jacobson has made clear, we could get much of the way there in relatively short and affordable order, by building out panels and turbines, by making our lives more efficient, by consuming less and differently. But that would require breaking the political power of the fossil fuel industry, which in turn would require a big movement, which in turn would require coming together, not splitting apart.

It’s that kind of movement we’ve been trying to build for a long time. I remember its first real gathering in force in the U.S., with tens of thousands of us standing on the Mall in Washington on a bitter February day in 2013 to demand an end to Keystone and other climate action. “All I’ve ever wanted to see was a movement of people to stop climate change,” I told the crowd. “And now I’ve seen it.”

We did an immense amount of work to get to that moment, helping will a movement into being. But from that moment on, for me it’s been mostly gravy — the great pleasure of watching the movement grow and then explode. Watching the kids who had built college divestment campaigns graduate to form the Sunrise Movement and launch the Green New Deal. Watching Extinction Rebellion start to shake whole cities. Watching the emergence of the climate strikers — and getting to know Greta Thunberg and many of the 10,000 others like her across the world. In each case, I’ve tried to help a little, largely just by amplifying their voices and urging others to pay attention.

I remember very well the night that same autumn after an overflow talk in Providence when my daughter, then a sophomore at Brown, said something typically wise to me: “I think you should probably be less famous in the years ahead.” I knew what she meant even as she said it, because of course I’d already sensed a bit of it myself. It wasn’t that she thought I was a bad leader — it was that we needed to build a movement that was less attached to leaders in general (and probably white male ones in particular) if we were going to attain the kind of power we needed.

And so, even then I began consciously backing off, not in my work but in my willingness to dominate the space. I stepped down as board chair at 350.org, and really devoted myself to introducing people to new leaders from dozens of groups. So many of those leaders come from frontline communities, indigenous communities — from the people already paying an enormous price for the warming they did so little to cause. Their voices are breaking through, and thank heaven: If you follow my twitter feed, you’ll see that the most common word, after “heatwave”, is “thanks,” offered to whoever is doing something useful and good. If you get the chance to read the (free) New Yorker climate newsletter I started earlier this year, you’ll see the key feature is called Passing the Mic: So far I’ve interviewed Nicole Poindexter, Jerome Foster II, Mary Heglar, Ellen Dorsey, Thea Sebastian, Virginia Hanusik, Tara Houska, Vann R. Newkirk II, and Christiana Figueres; this week Jane Kleeb; next week Alice Arena, helping lead the fight against a new gas pipeline across Massachusetts.

I think that one thing that defines those movements is their adversaries — in this case the fossil fuel industry above all. And I think the thing that weakens those movements is when they start trying to identify adversaries within their ranks. Much has been made over the years about the way that progressives eat their own, about circular firing squads and the like. I think there’s truth to it: there’s a collection of showmen like Moore who enjoy attracting attention to themselves by endlessly picking fights. They’re generally not people who actually try to organize, to build power, to bring people together. That’s the real, and difficult, work — not purity tests or calling people out, but calling them in. At least, that’s how it seems to me: The battle to slow down global warming in the short time that physics allots us requires ever bigger movements.

It’s been a great privilege to get to help build those movements. And if I worry that my effectiveness has been compromised, it’s not a huge worry, precisely because there are now so many others doing this work — generations and generations of people who have grown up in this fight. I think, more or less, we’re all headed in the right direction, that people are getting the basic message right: conserve energy; replace coal and gas and oil with wind and sun; break the political power of the fossil fuel industry; demand just transitions for workers; build a world that reduces ruinous inequality; and protect natural systems, both because they’re glorious and so they can continue to soak up carbon. I don’t know if we’re going to get this done in time — sometimes I kick myself for taking too long to figure out we needed to start building movements. But I know our chances are much improved if we do it together.

Thanks so much to all who fight for all that matters. On we go.



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