11/05/2020

Unsuitable For 'Human Life To Flourish': Up To 3B Will Live In Extreme Heat By 2070, Study Warns

USA TODAYDoyle Rice

Climate change: How a warmer Earth could mean more snow
Climate change is making winters colder despite rising temperatures and hotter summers. Here’s why.
Just the FAQs, USA TODAY

Key Points
  • By 2070, up to 3 billion people are likely to live in climate conditions 'deemed unsuitable for human life to flourish.'
  • Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could halve the number of people exposed to such hot conditions.
  • The study was prepared by an international research team of archaeologists, ecologists and climate scientists.
If global warming continues unchecked, the heat that's coming later this century in some parts of the world will bring "nearly unlivable" conditions for up to 3 billion people, a study released Monday said.

The authors predict that by 2070,  much of the world's population is likely to live in climate conditions that are "warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish."

The study warned that unless greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed, average annual temperatures will rise beyond the climate "niche" in which humans have thrived for 6,000 years.

That "niche" is equivalent to average yearly temperatures of roughly 52 to 59 Fahrenheit. The researchers found that people, despite all forms of innovations and migrations, have mostly lived in these climate conditions for several thousand years.

"We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 years than it has moved (in the past 6,000 years)," the study warned.

These brutally hot climate conditions are currently experienced by just 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly in the hottest parts of the Sahara Desert, but by 2070 the conditions could spread to 19% of the Earth’s land area. LucVi, Getty Images/iStockphoto

The future scenario used in the paper is one in which atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are high. The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas releases “greenhouse” gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane into Earth’s atmosphere and oceans.

The emissions have caused the planet’s temperatures to rise to levels that cannot be explained by natural factors, scientists report.

Temperatures over the next few decades are projected to increase rapidly as a result of human greenhouse gas emissions.

Without climate mitigation or migration, by 2070 a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to average annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today, the study said.

These brutally hot climate conditions are currently experienced by just 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly in the hottest parts of the Sahara Desert, but by 2070 the conditions could spread to 19% of the Earth’s land area.

This includes large portions of northern Africa, the Middle East, northern South America, South Asia, and parts of Australia.

"Large areas of the planet would heat to barely survivable levels and they wouldn’t cool down again," said study co-author Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

"Not only would this have devastating direct effects, it leaves societies less able to cope with future crises like new pandemics. The only thing that can stop this happening is a rapid cut in carbon emissions.”

Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could halve the number of people exposed to such hot conditions. “The good news is that these impacts can be greatly reduced if humanity succeeds in curbing global warming,” said study co-author Tim Lenton, a climate specialist from the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom.

“Our computations show that each degree warming (Celsius) above present levels corresponds to roughly 1 billion people falling outside of the climate niche," Lenton said. "It is important that we can now express the benefits of curbing greenhouse gas emissions in something more human than just monetary terms.”

The study, which was prepared by an international research team of archaeologists, ecologists and climate scientists, was published Monday in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

In our current climate, the most extreme heat is restricted to the small black areas in the Sahara Desert region. But by 2070, that area will expand to the shaded areas across portions of Africa, Asia, Australia and South America, according to the study. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences

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Robert De Niro, Madonna Lead Call For Politicians To Avoid Post-Lockdown “Return To Normal”

NME Charlotte Krol

They urge a "profound overhaul of our goals, values, and economies"

Robert De Niro, Madonna, Cate Blanchett.
CREDIT: George Pimentel/Getty Images; Fabio Diena / Alamy Stock Photo; Isa Foltin/WireImage



More than 200 high-profile actors and creatives have joined scientists in an open letter urging politicians to systematically upend life after the coronavirus to avoid “ecological disaster”.

Robert De Niro, Madonna, Cate Blanchett and others have signed the editorial ‘No To A Return To Normal’ published in Le Monde (May 6) that calls on world leaders and citizens “to undertake a profound overhaul of our goals, values, and economies,” in the wake of COVID-19.

The letter, which was written by Academy Award-winning French actress Juliette Binoche and astrophysicist Aurélien Barrau, states that the pandemic is “inviting us to examine what is essential. And what we see is simple: ‘adjustments’ are not enough. The problem is systemic.”

It warns that “the massive extinction of life on Earth is no longer in doubt, and all indicators point to a direct existential threat. Unlike a pandemic, however severe, a global ecological collapse will have immeasurable consequences.”

They also point to the “pursuit of consumerism” and “an obsession with productivity” which has “led us to deny the value of life itself.”

They add: “We believe it is unthinkable to ‘go back to normal,’” as the COVID-19 outbreak eases.


Robert de Niro


Adam Driver, Willem Dafoe, Rooney Mara, Penelope Cruz, Hirokazu Kore-eda, Alejandro G Inarritu, Paolo Sorrentino, Mikhail Baryshnikov, Pedro Almodovar, Guillaume Canet,  Nathalie Baye and Monica Bellucci are among the others who have lent their signatures to the letter.

Here’s the text in full:

“The Covid-19 pandemic is a tragedy. This crisis is, however, inviting us to examine what is essential. And what we see is simple: “adjustments” are not enough. The problem is systemic.

“The ongoing ecological catastrophe is a meta-crisis: the massive extinction of life on Earth is no longer in doubt, and all indicators point to a direct existential threat.

"Unlike a pandemic, however severe, a global ecological collapse will have immeasurable consequences.

“We therefore solemnly call upon leaders — and all of us as citizens – to leave behind the unsustainable logic that still prevails and to undertake a profound overhaul of our goals, values, and economies.

“The pursuit of consumerism and an obsession with productivity have led us to deny the value of life itself: that of plants, that of animals, and that of a great number of human beings. 

"Pollution, climate change, and the destruction of our remaining natural zones has brought the world to a breaking point.

“For these reasons, along with increasing social inequalities, we believe it is unthinkable to ‘go back to normal’.

“The radical transformation we need – at all levels – demands boldness and courage. It will not happen without a massive and determined commitment. 

"We must act now. It is as much a matter of survival as one of dignity and coherence.”

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Meet The 8-Year-Old Climate Activist Cleaning Up India

Global CitizenCatherine Caruso

Licypriya Kangujam wants children to have a better, cleaner planet.

The Child Movement

Licypriya Kangujam is the 8-year-old Indian climate activist taking the world by storm.

As the founder of the Child Movement and one of the youngest climate activists to date, Kangujam is known for calling on world leaders and global organizations to take immediate action to combat climate change.

She first began her activism two years ago at the age of 6. She started out by urging the Indian government to change its climate policies to help curb the amount of air pollution in the country.

After attending the Asian Ministerial Conference for Disaster Risk Reduction in July 2018, Kangujam knew she wanted to get more involved in climate change activism.

Since then, she has founded an organization, traveled to 32 countries, attended her first parliament strike, and called on world leaders to take direct action on climate change at the 2019 United Nations Climate Conference (COP25) in Madrid.

The Child Movement

She has also advocated to include climate lessons in school curriculums, which will be implemented in schools in Rajasthan and Gujarat at the start of the next academic year.

Kangujam’s main areas of focus are climate justice and climate education, and she has a list of demands for her government that must be fulfilled to achieve those goals. She also wants fossil fuel and carbon emissions to be regulated.

"This will bring transparency and accountability to our leaders. This will benefit people, especially millions of poor people in the country," Kangujam told Global Citizen.

She wants every student in India to plant a total of 10 trees each upon passing their final exams. With around 350 million students in the country, doing so would result in the planting of 3.5 billion new trees every year.

"All the above ... policies are possible," she said. "This can help to fight climate change and also change the system of the world. This can go a long way."

As a youth activist, Kangujam has had to take some extra steps to make sure that her voice is heard.

Social media, particularly Twitter, has placed an important role in amplifying her voice and ensuring that her message is spread to world leaders and other activists across the globe. The UN has also given her a platform to raise her concerns about the future of the planet.

In doing so, she has been able to meet with political leaders to discuss various climate issues plaguing India, like air pollution and its links to poor health and illness.

"I’m pressuring the government to ensure the health of every child in India. I will continue to put more pressure on our world leaders," Kangujam said. "The future is the children. The world needs to make a better planet for us. Our leaders need to act now before it’s too late."

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10/05/2020

Media Data Shows Covid-19 Has Stolen Climate Change's Thunder

Sydney Morning HeraldPeter Hannam

To get a sense how the impetus for action on climate change has been eclipsed by the COVID-19 pandemic, you only need to look at how the media’s interest on the matter has shifted.

From what looks like an all-time peak in Australia’s interest in a warming world during the bushfire crisis in January - with 4.5 per cent of articles about climate change - interest has since cratered to be less than 1 per cent, according to analysis from Streem, a media monitoring firm.

Stealing their thunder?: A climate change protester in Melbourne during the height of the bushfires. Credit: Chris Hopkins

By April, the number of articles given prominence on the homepage of 12 leading news sites that mentioned climate change in their first 100 words had dropped to 32 from 562 in January, when the bushfire inferno was at its worst.

COVID-19 counted 13,256 slots last month alone."Certainly coronavirus has reached unprecedented levels of media saturation, being mentioned in 80 per cent of stories some days," Conal Hanna, a Streem media analyst, said.

Interestingly, a similar pattern is evident in the United Kingdom, where interest in climate change tracked at levels close to Australia's even though the bushfires had no direct impact other than drawing the media's attention.

Less than one per cent of articles now mention climate change
Percentage of articles published in leading newspapers and websites

Source: Streem



The surge in coronavirus articles in Australia is notable, with four times more articles on the pandemic than all climate change-related news in the past year, Streem data showed.

Previous periods of relatively active interest in climate-related news, such as the address to the United Nations by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, were similarly dwarfed by articles about COVID-19.

Climate change coverage in April was 0.36% that of coronavirus
There were four times more COVID-19 stories in April
than climate change stories in the past year

Source: Streem




Bushfires devastated much of the forests of eastern Australia and elsewhere during the summer of 2019-20. Credit: Rob Blakers.

Mr Hanna said that while the pandemic was always going to dominate Australia's media landscape, other topics have been gaining reader interest in recent weeks.

"The George Pell verdict, the release of Malcolm Turnbull's memoir and the ongoing discussion about football season resumptions are all topics that have generated considerable prominence in the media despite the pandemic," he said.

How COVID-19 redefined 'blanket coverage'
The percentage of print and online news stories mentioning each topic

Source: Streem



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Climate Change Has Already Made Parts Of The World Too Hot For Humans

New Scientist - Adam Vaughan

Climate change is already making some places unliveable. AKHTAR SOOMRO/Reuters/PA Images

Global warming has already made parts of the world hotter than the human body can withstand, decades earlier than climate models expected this to happen.

Jacobabad in Pakistan and Ras al Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates have both repeatedly crossed a deadly threshold for one or two hours at a time, an analysis of weather station data found.

Wet bulb temperature (TW) is a measure of heat and humidity, taken from a thermometer covered in a water-soaked cloth. Beyond a threshold of 35°C TW the body is unable to cool itself by sweating, but lower levels can still be deadly, as was seen in the 2003 European heatwave that killed thousands without passing 28°C TW.

A US-UK team analysed weather station data across the world, and found that the frequency of wet bulb temperatures exceeding temperatures between 27°C TW and 35°C TW had all doubled since 1979. Though 35°C TW is thought of as a key threshold, harm and even death is possible at lower temperatures, so the team included these in their analysis.

Most of the frequency increases were in the Persian gulf, India, Pakistan and south-west North America. But at Jacobabad and Ras al Khaimah, 35°C TW appears to have been passed, the first time the breach has been reported in scientific literature.

“The crossings of all of these thresholds imply greater risk to human health we can say we are universally creeping close to this magic threshold of 35°C. The tantalising conclusion is it looks like, in some cases for a brief period of the day, we have exceeded this value,” says Tom Matthews at Loughborough University in the UK.

His team corroborated the threshold being breached by looking at another weather dataset, based on temperature and humidity observations and modelling. That analysis suggested several areas of the Persian Gulf will see the possibility of 35ۜ°C TW happening once every 30 years at around 2.3°C of global warming. The world has already warmed about 1°C due to human activities.

Such intense humid temperatures have so far largely affected affluent Gulf states, which have the capacity to cope by investing in air conditioning. But Matthews warns that with continued climate change, the extremes will affect more parts of Pakistan, and India too, which may have not have the capacity to adapt.

Even if they they could, it would require huge amounts of energy for cooling, further exacerbating climate if it came from fossil fuels. “We are already exquisitely close, closer than we thought, to that line in the sand,” he says.

While there are uncertainties over temperature and humidity readings from a few weather stations, because of where they are sited or how they are calibrated, Matthews says the overall picture is “unequivocal”.

Steven Sherwood at University of New South Wales in Australia, who was not involved in the research, says it makes a convincing case that the measurements are accurate, though it could not be guaranteed.

“The implications of this study are that such extreme conditions which push the tolerance of the human body are not as far off into the future as we thought, at least in a few locations on Earth,” he says.

Clare Heaviside at University College London says the work is broadly in line with existing research, but cautioned against the focus on the threshold of 35°C TW. “It is difficult to link a wet bulb temperature threshold to specific health outcomes, and for different population groups,” she says.

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Mark Carney: 'We Can't Self-Isolate From Climate Change'

BBC Science & Environment - Victoria Gill

Could a post-pandemic economic recovery provide countries with the chance to accelerate towards cleaner energy? Getty Images

The former governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has added his voice to calls for industrialised nations to invest in a greener economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis.

He shared his comments in an online discussion about climate change with the former Prime Minister of Australia, Malcom Turnbull.

Both called on nations to accelerate a transition to cleaner energy.

The event was organised by the Policy Exchange think tank.

Mr Carney said that the pandemic was "a terrible situation, but there was also a big opportunity" at the end of it.

"We have a situation with climate change which will involve every country in the world and from which we can't self-isolate," he added.

Mr Carney has previously spoken out about climate change risks. Getty Images





Science confronts politics

As has rapidly become the socially distant norm, both participants joined the discussion via video conference from their respective homes - setting out how they saw ways in which countries could emerge from the crisis with cleaner, more sustainable economies.

Mr Turnbull, who was Australia's prime minister from 2015-2018, issued blunt, broad criticisms of many governments for failing to take the science of climate change seriously.

Drawing bleak parallels with the pandemic, Mr Turnbull said Covid-19 was a case of "biology confronting and shaking the complacency of day-to-day politics with a physical reality of sickness and death".

"The question is, when will the physics of climate change mug the complacency and denialism - just as biology has with respect to the virus."



'Leapfrog ahead'

Mr Carney, who stepped down as Bank of England governor in March, just before the UK lockdown began, explained that, at a time when many industries would have to restructure, this would be a chance "to try not go back to the status quo".

As countries re-launched and rebuilt their economies, they "should try to leapfrog ahead", he said.

He recommended regulatory policies that would push economies more quickly towards greener growth - and a more sustainable future - citing the UK's plan to phase out petrol and diesel cars by 2035.

Governments, he added, should also take the opportunity to invest in wind and solar power to accelerate the transition to greener energy.

Many countries would have the opportunity to invest in sustainable infrastructure, Mr Carney said, pointing out that that opportunity was missed after the 2008 financial crisis.

"You can't wish away the systemic risk," he said. "In the end, a small investment up front can save a tremendous cost down the road."


Five things the world needs to invest in to be "climate change resilient"

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09/05/2020

Why It Doesn’t Make Economic Sense To Ignore Climate Change In Our Recovery From The Pandemic

The Conversation

shutterstock

Anna Skarbek is Executive Director of ClimateWorks Australia, a non-profit collaboration hosted by Monash Sustainability Institute in partnership with The Myer Foundation.
Anna led the first project for ClimateWorks, the award-winning Low Carbon Growth Plan for Australia, working with McKinsey & Co and the Australian and Victorian Governments.
This project identified the least cost opportunities for emissions reduction across the major sectors of the Australian economy, with a roadmap for implementation.
It will be tempting for some to overlook the climate change challenge in the rush to restart the economy after the pandemic.

Federal energy minister Angus Taylor has flagged he wants to develop Australia’s gas-fired power to help boost the economy. And conservative political strategist Sir Lynton Crosby recently argued business survival is more important than environment, social and governance matters.

In the United States, the Trump administration is reportedly contemplating a coronavirus rescue package tailored specifically to oil and natural gas producers, while the Chinese government is trying to stimulate its economy by allowing polluters to bypass environmental regulations.

But the pandemic is not a reason to weaken the commitments to net zero emissions. In fact, climate action is a vital protection against further global shocks, especially as governments plan their post-pandemic stimulus packages.
The economic shock from climate change

The devastation the virus has inflicted is a reminder of our vulnerability and the importance of prevention and mitigation.

It’s a point bolstered by fresh evidence about the scale of economic shock we might face if we fail to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement.

A major study published in Nature Communications last month put a dollar value on the cost of climate inaction. If we don’t prevent the planet warming, we can expect a bill of between US$150 trillion and US$792 trillion by 2100. That’s up to A$1,231 trillion in Australian dollars.

The predicted “global shock” would be even more financially catastrophic than coronavirus.

The research, however, also points out some good news. The limitation of global warming to 1.5℃ would deliver a corresponding boost, with the global economy growing by US$616 trillion compared to inaction.

Big businesses on board

The economic cost of the shutdowns imposed to address the coronavirus pandemic have not been compared to the value of the lives saved.

Climate change action, on the other hand, has repeatedly been found to pass traditional cost-benefit tests. The solutions are known to already be available and effective if deployed in time.

What’s more, new research – with Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz and leading climate economist Nicholas Stern at the helm – shows climate mitigation actions deliver maximum economic growth multiplier benefits from a stimulus perspective.

It found spending on new green energy projects generates twice as many jobs for every dollar invested, compared with equivalent allocations to fossil fuel projects.
Climate action, then, is vital for the economy. That’s why a remarkable list of business leaders have just added their names to a call for stimulus funds to be invested in what they call “the economy of the future”.

This includes chief executives, chairs and senior executives from major organisations including Rio Tinto, BP, Shell, Allianz and HSBC, together with the Energy Transitions Commission (a global group of companies and experts working towards low-carbon energy systems).

They’re urging for massive investments in renewable power systems, a boost for green buildings and green infrastructure, targeted support for innovative low-carbon activities and other similar measures.
In Europe, a coalition of chief executives, politicians and academics is calling for major investment in projects to make the European Union the “world’s first climate-neutral continent” by 2050.

They say the need for state intervention in the wake of the pandemic provides an unparalleled chance to build economies that are sustainable, resilient and dynamic.

Representatives of global companies have signed the “green recovery” platform. These include PepsiCo, Microsoft, Enel, E.ON, Volvo Group, L'Oréal, Danone, Ikea and more.

Technology is getting better

Boosting the economy with climate action is a message our recent research from ClimateWorks Australia reinforces. It shows how we can achieve the Paris targets with technologies already available.

But we can only do it if government, business and consumer decisions support the accelerated deployment of these technologies, and only if we roll out mature zero-emissions technology solutions more quickly across all sectors (not just electricity), and invest in development and commercialisation of emerging solutions in harder-to-abate sectors.

Across all sectors of the Australian economy, technology provides opportunities to decarbonise, and has rapidly improved.

For example, advances in lithium ion technology mean high-tech batteries cost only a fifth of what they did ten years ago. So it’s easier and cheaper to store electricity than ever before – even as renewables now offer a consistently cheaper source of generation than fossil fuels.

Lithium ion batteries have come a long way in a short time. Shutterstock

Innovations like that have changed the game. A new Australian Energy Market Operator study makes clear that, within five years, Australia can run a power grid in which 75% of electricity comes from wind and solar.

A clean stimulus package

Measures these pathways involve are ideally suited to a stimulus package. Governments could create jobs and spur industry, while modernising the economy for the challenges ahead.

How? By building charging infrastructure to support electric vehicles powered by renewables; encouraging investment in sustainable agriculture, fertiliser management and carbon forestry; deploying PV and battery systems across city buildings; or embracing any number of other “shovel ready” solutions.
Through this pandemic we’ve witnessed how people have learned new approaches and switched mindsets almost as quickly as the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and social distancing restrictions began.

Just as we’re remembering to wash our hands more than we used to, coming out of the pandemic, it will pay to be more attentive about remembering to choose the zero-emissions option at every step.

We stand at a crossroads. If government stimulus packages around the world favour carbon-intensive practices and miss the moment to modernise and decarbonise, we will lock ourselves into a warming future.

If, however, we rise to the challenge, we can use the recovery from one crisis to simultaneously address another.

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Lethal Heating is a citizens' initiative