Climate Crisis To Blame For $67bn Of Hurricane Harvey Damage – Study

The Guardian - Fiona Harvey

Exclusive: new figure far higher than previous estimates of direct impact of global heating

Flooding in Houston, Texas, after Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Photograph: Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty

At least $67bn of the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey in 2017 can be attributed directly to climate breakdown, according to research that could lead to a radical reassessment of the costs of damage from extreme weather.

Harvey ripped through the Caribbean and the US states of Texas and Louisiana, causing at least $90bn of damage to property and livelihoods, and killing scores of people.

Conventional economic estimates attributed only about $20bn of the destruction to the direct impacts of global heating. Climate breakdown is known to be making hurricanes stronger and may make them more likely to occur, but separating the effects of global heating from the natural weather conditions that also cause hurricanes is complex.

In a study published in the journal Climatic Change, researchers used the emerging science of climate change attribution to calculate the odds of such a hurricane happening naturally or under increased carbon dioxide levels, and applied the results to the damage caused.

Similar methods were used in a separate study, published last month in the same journal, that found that droughts in New Zealand between 2007 and 2017 cost the economy about NZ$4.8bn, of which $800m was directly linked to climate change. Floods caused insured losses of about NZ$470m over the same period, of which NZ$140m was linked to the climate.

The researchers say the new tools are a more accurate way of estimating the economic damage caused by climate breakdown.

“We’re pretty sure the climate change-related damages associated with extreme events have been underestimated in most assessments of the social cost of carbon,” said David Frame, a professor of climate change at the Victoria University of Wellington and the lead author of the studies. “We think this line of research, as it matures, should provide a really valuable input.”

Friederike Otto, the director of the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford, who was not involved in the research, said the method could make it possible to generate global estimates of the true cost of climate breakdown, which could have a profound effect on how governments and businesses approach the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

“We have known about the costs of climate change theoretically,” said Otto. “It’s all very well in the abstract, but the global mean temperature does not kill anyone – extreme events cost money and lives. Being able to attribute these impacts to climate change means being able to convey what climate change really means.”

She said it would become possible to compile an inventory of the damage that could be attributed to climate change around the world, which governments and businesses could use to bring about change. “Hopefully this will speed up the process of moving to net zero [carbon].”

Estimating the true costs of the climate crisis could also help developing countries seeking recognition of the loss and damage they face as a result of climate breakdown, which they argue should spur rich countries to provide more assistance. Loss and damage is likely to be one of the most vexed issues at next year’s UN Cop26 climate summit.

Legal actions around the world would also be affected, said Tessa Khan, a co-director of the Climate Litigation Network. Activists and local governments around the world are taking fossil fuel companies to court over their greenhouse gas emissions, arguing that they knowingly caused damage while profiting from raising carbon dioxide levels.

“[The two new studies] are opening to door to stronger evidence to persuade courts that fossil fuel companies should be held accountable for their role,” Khan said. “This will strengthen the legal basis of these lawsuits.”

Links

• The town fighting the climate crisis to stay afloat, one hurricane at at time
• Are hurricanes getting stronger – and is climate breakdown to blame?
• Debts add to disaster for climate-hit nations
• Global warming made Hurricane Harvey deadly rains three times more likely, research reveals
• Puerto Rico evacuates 70,000 after dam fails in Hurricane Maria's wake
• Drone footage shows flooding in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria – video
• British Virgin Islands to face 155mph winds with Hurricane Maria
• Is tropical storm Harvey linked to climate change?

Our Pandemic Response Was A Disaster. We Can't Afford To Make The Same Mistakes With Climate Change

Business Insider - Patrick Bolton | Marcin Kacperczyk

• The COVID-19 crisis shows that we need to be prepared and act quickly in response to the climate crisis.
• The climate change crisis is our next great challenge, but we must learn from the mistakes of our response to the novel coronavirus.

Rosie Perper/Business Insider                     

Authors Patrick Bolton is the Barbara and David Zalaznick Professor of Business at Columbia University and Visiting Professor at Imperial College London. Marcin Kacperczyk is a Professor of Finance at Imperial College London.

As COVID-19 rocketed across the globe, many countries took swift, drastic action to lock down their countries in order to save lives.

At every economic level, communities quickly adapted to new public health requirements in order to protect against the spread of the disease.

In a matter of months, every major city across the globe shut down activities that put people at risk. It has come at a devastating cost, but concern for the science behind this dangerous virus has largely prevailed.

This moment is not to be celebrated. But the lessons we have learned in the COVID-19 outbreak will pave the way as we confront a climate change crisis that is already causing a catastrophe. It can feel insignificant in comparison to the global pandemic, but we entered 2020 on fire, literally, the Australian wildfires destroyed 27 million acres in a matter of weeks. And in the first five months of  2020 surpassed 2019 as the warmest start to the year on record.

If we have any hope of surviving and emerging from the climate crisis, we need to view the swift and strong reaction to COVID-19 as a dry run for the action needed to meet the challenges of a warming planet. The changes we must make will require a radical departure from the norm, and we will need to sustain these changes.

The COVID-19 crisis shows we can be prepared and act quickly.

Countries that have so far mitigated the health costs of COVID-19 – including Germany and South Korea – have shown the importance of preparedness in reducing the impact of a crisis.

These countries recognized the need for spare hospital beds, trained nurses, testing kits, and PPE, to confront the pandemic. Countries with more redundancy in their resources have endured a smaller health shock than others – a note all countries should take before the climate crisis hits hard.

The coronavirus outbreak also painfully reinforced the importance of international cooperation in solving a global crisis. During the Great Recession, the world's leading central banks collaborated with the G20 on a coordinated economic response.

But at the early stages of this pandemic, the global response was disjointed and leaderless If the global community could have worked together on testing and screening, it's possible the global outbreak might have been less severe.

It's time to get ready for the next crisis

It is time, even in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, to start taking stronger action to address climate change to soften the blow of the approaching climate shock.

Just as we should have had better-prepared healthcare systems for a pandemic, we should be better prepared to react to climate change with a more sustainable economy. This means implementing climate mitigation policies such as carbon pricing, the integration of sustainability into financial practices and accounting frameworks, the search for appropriate policy mixes, and the development of new financial mechanisms at the international level.

History has shown us that green-focused economic recovery plans are more beneficial than their traditional counterparts in both the short and long-term. Research from our colleagues at Columbia reveals that green projects not only deliver jobs off the bat, they also work toward a carbon-conscious future.

Businesses and governments should start with factoring climate-related risk analysis into financial stability monitoring. Central banks and the financial sector must start treating climate change as a "green swan" risk: an extremely disruptive event that could ignite a chain reaction of financial and political crises. Their leadership to mitigate the climate crisis could mobilize action among governments, the private sector, and the international community.

Encouragingly, our research reveals that financial markets are beginning to factor in the risk of climate change. Even though companies with high carbon emissions may offer investors high earnings, investors are demanding more from these companies in terms of stock returns because of the risk associated with climate change. In the future, these companies may be starved of capital.

Private sector banks, including Barclays and Standard Chartered, are reorienting their investments to measure the carbon emissions of their portfolios and reduce their exposure to companies that pollute.

The transition to sustainability cannot happen overnight. Actions at all levels are needed and each one requires a careful assessment of the costs and benefits, whether economic or social. Blunt regulations that suddenly punish everyone could end up being counterproductive. What we need are fairly targeted interventions that focus on the parts of the economy where the benefits are greatest relative to the costs.

And we must start now. The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that we have the capacity for bold global action. But the expression flattening the curve carries an implicit note of optimism – suggesting that the wave will pass. The climate crisis, unlike the coronavirus pandemic, will not pass. The changes it brings will be permanent.

As we recover from coronavirus, our aim shouldn't be to go back to normal but to take the lessons we've learned to strive towards a greener future.

Links

• Parallel Threats Of COVID-19, Climate Change, Require ‘Brave, Visionary And Collaborative Leadership’: UN Chief
• Can Covid-19 Response Be A Model For Climate Action?
• IMF Leader Says Pandemic Stimulus Must Focus On Battling Climate Crisis
• (AU) Is COVID-19 The Dress Rehearsal For Climate Change?
• Climate Change: How A Green New Deal Really Could Go Global
• How Our Brains Make It Hard To Solve Climate Change

Climate Change Is Making Mosquito-Borne Diseases Deadlier

 Popular Mechanics - Daisy Hernandez

KATERYNA KON/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY Getty Images

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), a mosquito-transmitted disease, appears to be becoming more prevalent in the eastern U.S.— bad news for humans considering some of the debilitating after-effects and even mortality brought on by EEEV. One likely factor helping mosquitoes spread EEEV is climate change. Current trends point to even more cases of EEEV in the coming years as conditions become optimal for mosquitoes to procreate, feed, and spread.

Disease-laden mosquitoes carrying the eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV)—sometimes abbreviated as EEE—appear to be moving north and spreading the deadly infection into areas where it was previously not known to exist.

The likely culprit? Climate change, which has long been an issue affecting things like migratory patterns in animals, melting glaciers—which could release new viruses we are not prepared to treat—and even animal size.

In 2019, there was an EEEV outbreak in the U.S. that affected 36 people. That might not seem like a high number, but EEEV is very uncommon, making 36 confirmed cases in a year is a concerning amount.

To make matters worse, there is no treatment or cure for EEEV which is fatal in 30 percent of people who contract it per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) said that “2019 has been a particularly deadly year for the [EEEV] in the United States,” citing the aforementioned 36 cases which spread across eight states with 13 of the cases being fatal.

EEEV spreads to humans via mosquito bite. It does not spread from person to person, other animals to people, or people to animals. The disease can then cause encephalitis—swelling of the brain—that can be deadly. In instances when EEEV is not fatal, it can leave a person with neurological problems, ranging from “mild brain dysfunction to severe intellectual impairment,” says the CDC.

EEEV symptoms include fever, chills, arthralgia, and myalgia. The CDC adds that people tend to make a full recovery when “there is no central nervous system involvement.” In addition to being fatal and causing neurological issues in humans, EEEV is also a health hazard to horses, which is where the virus' name originates. The University of Tennessee College of Veterinary Medicine reports that EEEV is “most commonly seen in horses in the southeastern U.S.”

EEEV is not new in the U.S. In a 2013 paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine, entomologist Theodore Andreadis and a colleague said:

Since the discovery of the EEE virus in the 1930s, cases in humans had been sporadic and restricted to areas south of northern New England until a disease outbreak struck New Hampshire in 2005. Over the past decade, we have witnessed a sustained resurgence of EEE virus activity within longstanding foci in the northeastern United States and northward expansion into regions where the virus was historically rare or previously unknown, including northern New England and eastern Canada.

Additionally, the paper authors wrote that virus transmission is “highly seasonal and dependent on weather conditions,” with the most favorable being “forested swamp habitats” where mosquitoes thrive.

With winters becoming milder and summers getting warmer, the weather is continually changing to favor the birth and spread of disease-carrying mosquitoes.

“Milder winters, in turn, may enhance the overwintering survival of mosquito vectors and allow mosquitoes to extend their range northward. Warmer summer conditions accelerate the generation time of mosquitoes, their frequency of blood feeding, and the rate of virus replication within mosquitoes,” say Andreadis and colleague.

If climate change continues following the current trajectory, we could be facing a slew of viruses we're not used to treating in the coming decades.

“These environmental changes have the potential to alter disease risk by increasing the abundance and distribution of the vector, lengthening the virus-transmission season, and increasing the intensity of virus transmission,” conclude the paper authors.

Links

• Climate Change Will Expose Half of World’s Population to Disease-Spreading Mosquitoes By 2050
• Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change
• Climate Change May Mean More Risky Mosquitoes
• Climate change linked to the spread of mosquito-borne viruses like EEE
• The 10 Best Tools for Keeping Mosquitos Away
• Scientists Are Testing Mosquito Elimination Tech
• The 5 Best Bug Zappers for Mosquitos

(AU) New Climate Atlas Report Shows How Climate Change Will Affect Australian Wine Regions

ABC Landline | Prue Adams

Vineyards across Australia's 71 wine regions may have to managed differently as the climate changes. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)

Key points The Climate Atlas details how the climate will change in winegrowing regions over the next 80 years It predicts some regions may begin to resemble others, with changes to temperature, rainfall and aridity Winegrowers are looking to adapt to better cater for a changing climate

A world-first research document about to be released has detailed how Australia's famous winegrowing regions will be forced to adapt due to climate change.

It predicts the Barossa Valley will become more like the Riverland is now, while Tasmanian wine regions will resemble the current temperature of the Coonawarra.

Commissioned by Wine Australia, the Climate Atlas took University of Tasmania climate researchers three years to put together.

It charts an 80-year course for climate change, including temperature, rainfall, aridity and frost for each of the country's 71 wine regions.

The Climate Atlas was compiled by the Climate Futures Group at the University of Tasmania. (Supplied: University of Tasmania)

"It's pivotal; I think this will be a line-in-the-sand body of work," said Hunter Valley viticulturist Liz Riley, one of the first industry insiders to analyse the data.

With the Hunter destined to become three degrees warmer by 2100, with more intense and frequent heatwaves and more rainfall, Ms Riley is concerned for the health and safety of workers who will need to endure hotter, more humid conditions during the harvest season.

"We've focused a lot in climate change on managing the vineyard, but I think how we manage the people has probably been the greatest surprise within the [data] that's come out," she said.

A changing climate may affect everything from grape varieties to vineyard staffing. (Supplied: Unsplash)

Impact on colder climates

The colder wine regions are not immune to heat and aridity changes.

All eight wine regions in Tasmania will become hotter, some will become drier and others slightly wetter, but the water availability will be reduced, measured by an aridity index.

"It's going to get hotter and drier in most Australian regions," said lead author Tom Remenyi, from the University of Tasmania's Climate Futures Group.

"That warming, drying trend is because as the temperature increases, there is more evaporative demand, so there is this drying pressure on the landscape which would require it to increase in rainfall to maintain the same balance we have at the moment."

Dr Tom Remenyi turned the Climate Atlas data into an online tool. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)

He said the data in the Climate Atlas drew on well-established and proven global climate models and the projections were based on the current high-carbon-emissions scenario.

"The Australian wine industry is the first industry to have this kind of information available to them at the resolution that is relevant to growers on the ground, and that gives them an enormous chance to choose their future," Dr Remenyi said.

'A wow moment' for winegrowers

Grape growers and winemakers can now compare the future of their regions with others that are already experiencing those temperatures and rainfall conditions.

For instance, over the next two decades Margaret River can expect its current mean growing season rainfall to drop from 206mm to 164mm by 2100, and the temperature is destined to rise just under three degrees, making it comparable to the current temperature of the Swan District, north of Perth.

Wine industry participants can seek information, such as soil and vine management and irrigation techniques, and even swap to varieties that will suit their changing climate.

For Tasmanian wine grower Max Marriot, there is concern as to whether his region could still grow the cool climate pinot noir and chardonnay it has built a reputation on.

Max Marriot was shocked to hear the report's predictions. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)

"Tasmania could have a trajectory in 70 or 80 years time that sees it as a climate equivalent of Coonawarra, or growing degree days equivalent to South Australia," he said.

"When [Dr Remenyi] told me, it was very much a wow moment.

"This is going to have consequences."

Planning for change

Tasmanian winegrowers have already started thinking about how they will mitigate the higher temperatures and aridity.

Paul and Gilli Lipscombe moved to the Huon Valley to grow pinot noir in what they call "marginal" country.

Gilli Lipscombe has concerns for their dryland vineyard if the climate becomes more arid. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)

They do not have any irrigation, but concede they may need to in the future if, as the data suggests, the region becomes more arid.

"To have really detailed numbers and projections for the next 20, 30, 40, 50 years, it's hugely beneficial," Ms Lipscombe said.

"We can make really concrete plans on what we need to do and how we need to approach the next few decades."

Australia's Wine Future: A Climate Atlas is due to be released publicly and free of charge on the Wine Australia website on Monday.

Links

• Australia’s Wine Future: A Climate Atlas
• Climate change is forcing Australia's struggling winemakers to adapt
• In focus: How the Australian wine industry is dealing with climate change
• Climate Change is Souring the Australian Wine Industry
• Australian bushfires: what will recovery look like?
• Hemispheric variability in global ocean warming
• We're gambling': Rohan sees climate change as an opportunity and he's thriving
• Climate change 'creeping up' on winemakers and increasing alcohol content
• New tech to detect smoke taint will ensure the quality of your next glass of wine
• Climate Futures for Tasmania
• Future fire danger

(AU) Farmers For Climate Action Launch Regional Horizons Proposal

Western Magazine - Taylor Jurd

Climate: Regional Horizons is the FCA's call for the government to inject stimulus into rural Australia as part of the COVID-19 recovery strategy. Photo: Shutterstock

A national body representing farmers advocating for climate change has launched a new $1.8 billion package outlining areas where they would like the government to take action.

On June 10, Farmers for Climate Action launched Regional Horizons.

The report calls for:

• The delivery of the National Climate Change and Agriculture Work Plan, which is already under development. Done well, the plan could play an important role coordinating efforts to promote climate-smart agriculture and build regional resilience to drought, fire and other mounting risks
• A Land and Environment Investment Fund, working from the successful Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), to support innovation, attract large-scale investment, reward ecosystem services, and promote climate solutions for farmers. A thriving landscape carbon industry alone would generate up to $10.4 billion in revenue and create up to 15,750 jobs by 2030.
• A Regional Resilience Hub Network to strengthen and diversify existing learning networks, encourage innovation, and empower regional communities with choices in a changing climate.
• A Regional Energy Transition Program, to promote and support community-based, clean energy developments, and modernise and decentralise power grids.

FCA CEO Wendy Cohen said Regional Horizons is their call to action for the government to inject stimulus into rural and regional Australia as part of the recovery strategy coming out of COVID-19.

Ms Cohen said the FCA believe the four key areas have huge potential for investment in initiatives, infrastructure and funding mechanisms to support a thriving and resilient rural and regional Australia.

"It's really important the whole country acknowledges recognises rural and regional Australia's contribution to the entire nation and its value to the economy and... the importance that farming communities play in leading the recovery," she said.

Climate: Farmers for Climate Action CEO Wendy Cohen (pictured) said Regional Horizons is their call to action for the government to inject stimulus into rural regional. Photo: Supplied 

Ms Cohen said now is the time to use the COVID-19 recovery period as the 'golden era' of embracing new technology, low carbon solutions and building a cleaner, sustainable future for the country.

"The beauty of Regional Horizons... is (it's) ready-made. A lot of the ideas, on-farm solutions and practices are already in existence...," she said.

Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction Angus Taylor said since 2014, the Emissions Reduction Fund has purchased over $500 million worth of abatement from projects in regional and rural areas.

"An additional $1.4 billion is already committed to projects in regional and rural areas and further funding is available under the Climate Solutions Fund," he said.

"The Government is building on the success of the ERF through the new $2 billion Climate Solutions Fund.

"The Climate Solutions Fund will create new opportunities for regional communities, farmers and businesses to support jobs and develop new income streams."

Ms Cohen said there are packages across other Australian sectors with various government programs and funding schemes for COVID-19 recovery, so believes agriculture and rural and regional Australia should be included.

Robert Lee, of Larras Lee near Molong has been a strong advocate of climate change for many years and said for him to see the launch of Regional Horizons was "exciting."

"It's exciting to see a group pulling all the different strands together and putting up a comprehensive recommendation to government to how we might move forward," he said.

"You get the feeling a lot of people are throwing their hands in the air and a lot of people saying the opposite. (But) This is a rational, clear call for action."

Mr Lee believes planning and policy must come from the government and urged those with strong feelings about climate change to make it known to their local representative.

Links

• Farmers for Climate Action - Regional Horizons
• Farmers for Climate Action - Climate Change + Agriculture
• We must create a sustainable future without gas, says Farmers for Climate Action
• Fear Of Drought, Flood And Fires Leads Farmers To Plea For Urgent Action On Climate Change
• Farmers For Climate Action Say A Unified Parliament Needed To Address Looming Crisis
• Farmers Demand The Coalition Government Do More On Climate Change
• Farmers Call For National Strategy On Climate Change And Agriculture 
• Action Now’: The Farmers Standing Up Against ‘Wilful Ignorance’ On Climate
• The Future Of Farming In The Era Of Climate Change
• Climate Change Making Drought Worse, Farmers' Federation Chief Says 

Clues To The Impact Of Climate Change May Seep From A Volcano In Costa Rica

Washington Post - Daniel Grossman

Scientists study whether elevated carbon dioxide levels such as those found at Rincón de la Vieja might help or hurt tropical environments globally.

Steam and hot gases rise from the crater of Rincón de la Vieja, an active volcano in Costa Rica. Two scientific teams are measuring the carbon dioxide that seeps from cracks in the volcano’s foundation to determine its impact on the surrounding tropical forest. (Dado Galdieri / Hilaea Media)

Chad Deering trudges up a dry river channel on the north side of Rincón de la Vieja, one of Costa Rica’s active volcanoes. He wears a baseball cap emblazoned with the phrase Semper Fi, a token of his tour of duty with the Marines, and lugs a peculiar apparatus, part of a sensitive gas-testing kit, that looks more like a metal mixing bowl. The bedrock here is smooth lava, a lifeless tear in the rainforest that blankets Rincón de la Vieja’s flanks.

Along with two teams of scientists, Deering is pursuing not potential volcanic drama but something imperceptibly gradual — carbon dioxide seeping invisibly from cracks in the volcano’s foundation and exposing the surrounding environment. The question is whether that elevated exposure is a positive, a negative or neither — and what it might mean for the fate of tropical forests globally.

The stability of the world’s climate depends in part on these areas.

TOP: Ecologist Josh Fisher, left, and graduate students Nel Rodriguez Sepulveda and Katie Nelson traverse one of Rincón de la Vieja's slopes. BOTTOM LEFT: Graduate students Nel Rodriguez Sepulveda, left, and Katie Nelson walk near the volcano. They and other researchers are measuring carbon dioxide levels around Rincón de la Vieja. BOTTOM RIGHT: A scientist gauges the airflow in the tropical forest surrounding the volcano. (Dado Galdieri / Hilaea Media)

Every year, tropical forests soak up more than 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide, a substantial share of what’s emitted by power plants, industrial smokestacks and vehicle exhaust pipes. Yet how increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall will affect them long term remains unclear.

While many climate scientists believe that tropical forests will begin to absorb progressively less CO2, other research suggests that higher concentrations of the gas could actually protect them, an idea dubbed carbon fertilization.

In Costa Rica’s natural laboratory, a dense, steamy tangle in the country’s northwest corner, the teams hope to get closer to the answer. The issue is “one of the biggest uncertainties in climate projections of the fate of the planet,” says NASA scientist Josh Fisher, the ecologist leading the trek. He believes the study “could be a game changer.”

If extra carbon dioxide revs up Rincón de La Vieja’s jungle, the teams should find bigger trees, more carbon-dense species or some combination where gas levels are particularly high. One group is working on the volcano’s wetter north side and the other on its drier south side, to better assess and then compare two different ecosystems.

Graduate student Jacob Bonessi inputs data after measuring carbon dioxide levels around Rincón de la Vieja. (Dado Galdieri / Hilaea Media)

A crazy idea

Another NASA scientist had been the first one to propose studying carbon fertilization on a tropical volcano’s shoulders. Several years earlier, Florian Schwandner had helped the Philippines set up a successful network for detecting early symptoms of eruptions of 8,000-foot Mount Mayon, with sensors to track the flow of carbon dioxide from faults in its foundation. (One telltale sign of an oncoming eruption is when that flow suddenly increases.)

At the space agency’s Jet Propulsion Lab in California, the volcanologist hoped satellite-based measurements of carbon dioxide releases would provide early warnings around the world. His research group was filled with ecologists and frequent discussion of trees’ carbon sink, although nobody knew how to forecast the sink’s future.

A certain kind of experiment often came up in conversation: spraying extra carbon dioxide into a forest parcel to study how trees respond. Such carbon-enhancement trials had been run often in the United States and in other temperate regions and had shown that extra carbon dioxide sometimes increased forest growth.

The studies’ relevance for tropical forests was uncertain, but the huge logistical costs of trying to replicate them in remote equatorial areas had been prohibitive.

An alternative solution dawned on Schwandner in 2016. The constant low-level discharges of carbon dioxide from volcanoes might bathe surrounding forests in enough gas to run an enhancement experiment “for free.” He emailed Fisher, proposing a “compellingly crazy carbon fertilization idea.” Four years later, with funding from NASA, it was finally a go.

Schwandner, Fisher, and several other scientists and graduate students recruited for the project spent months scouring geological studies and satellite images of Costa Rica, hunting for faults and vents where the 6,286-foot-tall Rincón de la Vieja might be exhaling CO2 onto its rainforest carpet. They pinpointed 16 likely regions.

From the tropical forest in the shadow of Rincón de la Vieja, clouds obscure the volcano. While many climate scientists believe that such forests will begin to absorb progressively less CO2 because of climate change, other research suggests that higher concentrations of the gas could actually protect them, an idea dubbed carbon fertilization. (Dado Galdieri / Hilaea Media)

Stewing in CO2

Deep in the jungle, Deering’s team has doubled back, retracing their steps along the river bed and away from the canyon walls. They soon discover a trail near the spot he pointed out. Their local guide, a botanist, says a tapir probably made it foraging for fruit and leaves.

Deering and graduate student Jacob Bonessi are taking dozens of CO2 measurements daily. They stop not far from a pile of fresh tapir dung. Deering tightly clamps the metal chamber he carries onto a patch of damp jungle soil. An umbilical cord of hoses channels soil exhalations into the apparatus on his back. Buzzing over bird calls, a pump inside the case draws the gas into an instrument that computes the concentration of carbon dioxide wafting up from the ground.

The pair gaze for a few minutes at the forest’s emerald palms and twined strangler figs. A troop of howler monkeys can be heard in the distance.

Bonessi checks the reading, displayed on a tablet linked by Bluetooth to the electronics on Deering’s back.

“What you got?” asks Deering. “One point one four six,” Bonessi answers. “Big time!”

Deering whoops his enthusiasm. The number is one of the highest they’ve seen.

Volcanologist Chad Deering walks through the tropical rainforest with a gas-testing kit. (Dado Galdieri /Hilaea Media)

All over the planet, soil exudes carbon dioxide. It’s a waste product that microbes and subterranean fauna churn out while generating energy from oxygen and nutrients. But what the scientists have detected is well above the background level seeping from the soil here. This is the type of spot, infused with extra carbon dioxide from the volcano’s fractured rock, they were looking for. The trees here are stewing in it.

The team — traveling only with small backpacks stuffed with lunch, gear for measuring trees and bug repellent — heads to another targeted destination a few minutes uphill. Fisher dons a pair of snake-resistant chaps after a close call with a rattlesnake. Fina Soper, an ecologist and professor at McGill University, wears a custom neckerchief to protect against mosquitoes and ticks. “Badass Biogeochemists,” it reads.

At each stop, they record the diameter of all trees bigger than a sapling inside a plot the shape and size of a soccer pitch’s center circle. Soper struggles one afternoon with an uncooperative tape measure, a special forester’s rule purchased just for this trip. She loops the metal ribbon around a trunk as broad and true as a Greek temple’s column. But the band won’t retract.

“It figures that I’d break the most low-tech device I’ve used in my life,” she mutters, tugging on loops of the snarled steel.

LEFT: Fiona Soper, a McGill University biology professor, walks amid thick vegetation while assessing the plant species near Rincón de la Vieja. RIGHT: Ecologist Fiona Soper uses snake gaiters. Rattlesnakes are plentiful in the Rincón de la Vieja National Park. (Dado Galdieri / Hilaea Media)

By gathering detailed observations from many sites — each exposed to a unique combination of influences — she and the others are trying to account or control for the factors that influence tree heft. They’ll then tease out the effect of each factor, especially the one that concerns them most: greater carbon dioxide.

Fisher hopes to vastly ramp up their observations, if this initial expedition pans out, with return trips using one of the most advanced drones flown by NASA. Meanwhile, they painstakingly probe Rincón de la Vieja’s secrets. Ten days of slashing and slogging will yield the diameters of 952 trees between the two groups of scientists. Back home, they’ll calculate the mass of carbon stored in the wood of each plot using standard formulas.

“It’s good,” Fisher says halfway through the expedition. “Everyone’s healthy. Everyone’s happy. Equipment is working.” But as he well knows, a technical problem could upend the good fortune at any time. And then, he adds with a laugh, “We’ll all be fighting with each other. And everything will go to hell.”

Clouds of gases and vapor from the Rincón de la Vieja volcano rise in the surrounding tropical forest in Costa Rica. (Dado Galdieri / Hilaea Media)

Links

• In fast-warming Minnesota, scientists are trying to plant forests of the future
• A new leaf on reforestation of tropical woods
• Climate Change And Coronavirus: Five Charts About The Biggest Carbon Crash
• Arctic Climate Change – It’s Recent Carbon Emissions We Should Fear, Not Ancient Methane ‘Time Bombs’
• Climate Change: The State Of Our Atmosphere
• Guest Post: World’s Intact Tropical Forests Reached ‘Peak Carbon Uptake’ In 1990s
• Explainer: Nine ‘Tipping Points’ That Could Be Triggered By Climate Change
• (AU) Australia's Bushfires Have Emitted 250m Tonnes Of CO2, Almost Half Of Country's Annual Emissions
• Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Will Hit Yet Another Record High This Year, Experts Project
• Australia’s Vast Carbon Sink Releasing Millions Of Tonnes Of CO2 Back Into Atmosphere

(AU) Climate Change Policy: The Missing Middle

Pursuit: University of Melbourne - Scott Hamilton | Stuart Kells

In Australia, the COVID crisis has brought about bipartisanship and consensus, which are also urgently needed for effective climate change policy

Getty Images

Authors Scott Hamilton is a Strategic Advisory Panel Member, Australian-German Energy Transition Hub, University of Melbourne Stuart Kells is Adjunct Professor, La Trobe Business School, La Trobe University

The COVID crisis has brought about remarkable bipartisanship and consensus.

Australia’s new National Cabinet – which brings together the prime minister with all state and territory premiers and chief ministers – has been applauded from all sides of the political divide for acting on scientific evidence and taking decisive action.

But we urgently need to see the same shift towards the missing middle ground on climate policy in Australia.

A good first step would be to put climate and energy policy on the National Cabinet agenda.

Climate and energy policy should be on the new National Cabinet’s agenda. Picture: Getty Images

A Liberal history of climate policy

Australia’s Liberal Party has a history of taking positive steps in environmental policy.

In 1970, the Liberal Government in Victoria established the first Environment Protection Authority in Australia – only the second worldwide after the USA – which brought disparate pieces of environment law under one umbrella.

A Liberal government in Victoria also introduced the landfill levy, which now provides around $A500 million pledged into the Sustainability Fund which aims to help industry reduce and recycle waste.

And, in the lead-up to the 2006 Victorian state election, the then Liberal Opposition leader Ted Baillieu put forward a container deposit scheme policy, which aimed to make recycling easier outside the home, and which is now being implemented Australia-wide.

Australia’s state Liberal governments have been more progressive when compared to the federal government. Picture: Getty Images

Steps towards progress

When it comes to protecting the environment and responding to climate change, Australia’s state Liberal governments have been conspicuously progressive compared to their federal counterparts.

At a meeting of Energy Ministers as part of the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) in December 2018, the then New South Wales (NSW) Climate Change and Energy Minister, Don Harwin, expressed a wish to “end the climate wars” and reinstate an emissions obligation in national energy policy.

In June 2019, at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia, Matt Kean, NSW’s Minister for Energy and Environment took a calculated swipe at the Commonwealth Government over climate policy.

“We need a national framework that properly integrates climate and energy policy. That’s why the NSW Government still supports the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) and will continue to support a national mechanism that integrates climate and energy policy.”

Minister Kean is leading the push for the NSW Government to meet its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050, saying: “No responsible leader can accept the contribution made by science but then ignore the risk posed by climate change. Climate wars have not delivered for the people of NSW. We cannot afford to let these ideological indulgences continue.”

Hold tight, we’re in for nasty weather

In the 1980s, Australian newspapers began to report the concerns of international scientists that the “enhanced greenhouse effect” was a real phenomenon caused by human activities.

There’s been a progressive slowdown in Australia’s main political parties’ reform agendas in major environmental policy. Picture: Getty Images

In 1988, an Australian Financial Review (AFR) story with the headline ‘Government officials start to feel the climate of change’ reported:

“…yesterday, Queensland’s [Country Party] Water Resources Minister, Mr Don Neal, was at the forefront of the discussion.

“He pointed out the possible economic impact on Governments from increased flooding, more severe droughts, the effect on agricultural and pastoral industries and the need to redefine engineering design codes for roads, bridges, railways, dams and even housing.

“There is no longer any serious doubt that climate will change more rapidly over the next 50 years than ever before in natural history.”

Also in 1988, the Chair of Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and former NSW Labor Premier Neville Wran, told the AFR that “the Federal government may have to bring in laws to control the greenhouse effect… legislation would be required to either recognise international agreements on controlling the greenhouse effect or to regulate the phenomenon in Australia.”

In 1989, NSW Liberal Premier Nick Greiner considered investing in clean energy technologies and mandating energy efficiency in new homes. He also expressed his support for the Toronto target of a 20 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2005.

Australia urgently needs more bipartisan action to address climate change. Picture: Getty Images

Burning down the house

Twenty years on, Australia is now reaping some benefit from those decisions.

But as bushfires rage and droughts bite, we urgently need more bipartisan action to address climate change.

Rob Stokes MP, NSW Minister for Planning and Public Spaces, was part of the team steering the current NSW Liberal Government led by premier Gladys Berejiklian to power earlier this year.

According to him, “the potted history of environmental policy development in NSW shows both sides of politics have made significant strides.

“In fact, from the 1960s to the 1990s, we almost took it in turns, depending on who was in power, to progress the country’s understanding of environmental issues and transition the economy into more sustainable forms of growth and jobs.

“It is then extraordinarily and tragically ironic that we have seen a progressive slowdown in both parties’ reform agenda in major environmental policy, which correlates almost directly to the Greens’ rise to political prominence.

“To suggest that the Liberal party isn’t concerned with the environment is to ignore a crucial principle of conservatism, of Edmund Burke’s ‘eternal society’ philosophy, which says we have a contract among the dead, living and unborn.

Australia continues to pump out emissions that can last in the atmosphere for 200 years. Picture: Getty Images

“In NSW, we have a target of net zero emissions by 2050, with an interim target of lowering greenhouse gases by 35 per cent by 2030.

“That throws down the gauntlet to all parties and politicians.”

Setting a deadline

Every year, Australia continues to pump out emissions that can last in the atmosphere for 200 years. We are imposing an impossible burden on future generations.

All parties and political leaders need to put down their weapons and pick-up the climate policy gauntlet.

The National Cabinet should set a deadline for the energy reform taskforce to write a new climate policy that Australia can take to the postponed 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) – one that will win support of the States, Territories and the Commonwealth.

The Prime Minister has put a September 2020 deadline for his reforms of industrial relations in Australia.

The same deadline should also apply for the new climate and energy policy.

If that deadline isn’t met, States and Territories should write their own bipartisan climate policy and go forward on climate change action without the Commonwealth. We already have consensus among the States and Territories on meeting the implicit Paris goal of net zero emissions by 2050.

The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, aims to to agree coordinated action to tackle climate change. Picture: Getty Images

Once the States and Territories decide to continue without the Commonwealth and take their new policy to COP26, they can start implementing an ‘eternal society’ climate policy that delivers climate justice for the dead, the living and the unborn.

That is a viable path, but a better solution would be for our politicians to find the same consensus that has created such productive bipartisanship in the face of COVID-19.

Links

• COVID-19 is an opportunity to reset our environmental future
• What can Australia's pandemic response teach us about bushfire recovery?
• COVID-19 drop in pollution to be short-lived
• Extreme waves set to be bigger and more frequent
• How fast the planet warms will be crucial for liveability