There are only 250 Capricorn yellow chats located in three habitats along the central Queensland coast.(Supplied: Bob Black)
Key points
There are only 250 Capricorn yellow chats found on three marine plain habitats
The Curtis Island chat population has grown to about 40
Researchers have measured a sea level rise of 80mm in 16 years and this is threatening the birds' habitat
The
critically endangered Capricorn yellow chat could lose its habitat on
Curtis Island within 20 years if sea levels continue to rise at current
rates, researchers say.
The birds were reduced to just a couple of pairs 20 years ago, but numbers have rebounded to almost 40 on Curtis Island.
The
increase has been attributed to an annual feral pig shooting program
instigated in 2006 and the removal of cattle four years ago when the
Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service bought back a grazing lease.
But
CQUniversity researcher Bob Black, who has been surveying the chat for
18 years, said the population increase may be short-lived.
"The
future doesn't look terribly rosy because, within 20 years from now,
they won't have enough good habitat to feed and breed," Mr Black said.
The
chat is only found on three flat marine plains on the central
Queensland coast, and since 2002 the sea level has risen 80 millimetres.
"Where they live is so close to sea level and they only live on treeless marine plains," Mr Black said.
"They basically have nowhere else to go as the rising sea tides push up the channel."
Nesting habitat on Curtis Island pictured in 2002 with substantial grass. (Supplied: Wayne Houston)
Although
much of the plain on Curtis Island is still above sea level, the tides
are higher and leave ponds that eventually dry out and create salt
deposits.
Mr Black said when the ponds dried out, the salt deposits killed the vegetation.
There
were four chat breeding sites with sedges when Mr Black and his team
began their survey, but the sedges have disappeared from two of the
sites.
"Eventually the chats will be pushed to the end of the plain and the habitat will no longer suit them," Mr Black said.
Curtis Island in 2019 shows the loss of grass after tidal intrusion. (Supplied: Bob Black)
Mr Black also said the chats had moved almost two kilometres from their original habitat in the past 20 years.
"Once
they the get near the trees, they are a brilliant bright golden bird,
and birds of prey like sparrow hawks will just increase their predation
of them," Mr Black said.
"They basically can't survive in habitats with trees."
The
CQUniversity research team had a paper published this year in the
Austral Ecology journal that stated continued sea level rises would also
have ramifications for other shore birds.
"Capricorn
yellow chats, by virtue of their narrow niche and dependence on marine
plain wetlands, could be used as a sentinel species for early warning of
sea level rises," the paper said.
Scientists are warning that the federal government’s key environment
laws are failing to protect wildlife and ecosystems from climate change.
“Climate
change is a threat multiplier,” said Professor Lesley Hughes. “As the
temperature continues to rise and we get more heatwaves, droughts and
bushfires, threatened species will be in an even worse place than they
are now.”
Scientists are warning the federal government's environment laws don't account for the impacts of climate change. Credit: Janie Barrett
In
1999, the Howard government created the Environment Protection and
Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act to protect Australia’s unique flora
and fauna, but it has failed to reverse the rate of biodiversity
losses. The legislation doesn’t mention climate change, or compel the
federal environment minister to account for it.
In the past 20
years, the number of threatened species and ecosystems has grown by more
than one-third — from 1483 to 1974 — and mammal losses continue at the
same rate of between one and two a decade. One hundred species have
become extinct since 1788.
A CSIRO study, Quantifying extinction risk estimated
that climate change would increase the rate of losses about fivefold,
with 10 birds and seven mammals becoming extinct in the next 20 years
“without purposeful intervention”.
Assistant director of the
Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
Alana Grech said climate change is the "leading cause of decline" for
the Great Barrier Reef and the legislation should be changed to mitigate
its impacts.
The
Commonwealth government's Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report for 2019
showed "the ecosystem is still deteriorating" and found global warming
to be the greatest threat to the reef, Associate Professor Grech said.
A
recent survey of the World Heritage listed coral ecosystem by the
Centre of Excellence found that more than 60 per cent of the reef
ecosystem had suffered in a bleaching event caused by global warming
earlier this year. Mass bleachings did not occur before the mid-1990s,
but this year's event was the third and most widespread of three in the
past five years.
The current trajectory of global warming,
dependent on increasing international emissions reduction, is 2 degrees
by 2050 - a level which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
predicts will lead to decline in more than 90 per cent of coral reefs.
Professor
Hughes, a climate scientist and biologist at Macquarie University, said
"climate change should be compulsory in the legislation" and the laws
should force the federal Environment Minister to fund action plans that
prevent species becoming extinct, or to help them recover from reduced
populations including translocating vulnerable populations and captive
breeding.
Australian Conservation Foundation policy co-ordinator
James Trezise said the federal government should follow the lead of
state governments which have set standards for how emissions-intensive
projects are approved “like in Western Australia with mandatory
emissions offsets”.
“We
are advocating for a climate trigger to be inserted into the laws,
which compels the minister to account for the impact of climate change
from major projects,” Mr Trezise said.
Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young has introduced to the Senate a private members bill,
dubbed the Climate Trigger. It would force projects with carbon
emission and climate impacts to gain approval under the EPBC Act.
A
submission on the Climate Trigger bill from the federal Energy
Department said the EPBC Act is not the "most appropriate mechanism to
drive emissions reductions or ensure fulfilment of Australia’s
international obligations" and argued it would create unnecessary
duplication for project approvals.
The Act is currently under
review by former chair of the Australian Consumer and Competition
Commission, Graeme Samuel, who is due to complete his report for
Environment Minister Sussan Ley later this month. A spokesperson for the
minister said the "government will respond in due course".
Internationally
renowned ecologist Professor Hugh Possingham has watched for the past
20 years as the national environmental laws he helped design have failed
to protect Australia's threatened species and unique ecosystems.
Since
the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act passed
in 1999, the list of threatened species and ecosystems has grown by more
than one-third – from 1483 to 1974.
Among mammals alone, one to two
species are being lost each decade. The most recent, the Bramble Cay melomys, a rat native to the Great Barrier Reef, was declared extinct last year – the first loss attributed to climate change.
Environment Minister Sussan Ley has warned the status of koalas in various locations may be upgraded to endangered. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
About
8 million hectares of threatened species habitat was cleared between
2000 and 2017, and 93 per cent of it was not assessed under the
legislation despite the powers existing to do so, a study by leading Australian ecologists including Possingham found last year.
Environment Minister Sussan Ley has warned the status of koalas in various locations may be upgraded to endangered.
"We
are losing species at a similar rate to what we were 200 years ago and
it's fast, as fast as anywhere on the planet," Possingham says, adding
populations of threatened species are declining at a rate of 1 per cent a
year. "It's really depressing. If our superannuation was declining at 1
per cent a year, we would all be concerned."
Possingham,
a laureate fellow of the Australian Research Council, was brought in to
advise the Howard government in the late 1990s on what started out as
ambitious Commonwealth reforms to modernise the system of environmental
protection. He was optimistic when the legislation passed in 1999, but
now despairs.
"The intent of the law was any human action that
would impact a listed species would not happen or would be modified so
it wouldn't have an impact or it would be stopped," he says.
"Look
at the data on applications – under 1 per cent of projects have been
denied. A lot of habitat has disappeared and most of it wasn't referred
[for assessment under the act] and when it is, little happens.
"A
lot of richer countries like those in Europe and the US have got their
extinction under control, but we haven't ... we are very embarrassed on
the international stage. There's no ambiguity in the science, the EPBC
Act isn't delivering."
'Green safety net'
Recent
catastrophes have wrought havoc on national icons including the Great
Barrier Reef and the Murray-Darling river system.
The Black Summer fires
of 2019-20 killed billions of animals,
scorched 10 million hectares of bushland, pushed scores of threatened
species towards extinction and endangered populations that had
previously been relatively plentiful.
But experts say there is
cause for optimism amid the dire tallies of death and destruction,
arguing the legislation could "do a hell of a lot" to reverse the
damage, provided politicians used its powers to intervene on nature's
behalf.
'Operation Rock Wallaby' is delivering thousands of kilos of vegetables to endangered brush-tailed rock wallabies.
"The
act is like a Ferrari, but you've got to take it out of the garage to
use it," University of Queensland associate professor of environmental
policy Chris McGrath says. "It's got all the tools; the powers are
there. It can act as a green safety net for threatened species and the
environment. But the political will to enforce the rules is the
problem."
The draft of the second statutory review of the EPBC Act, being prepared by former Australian Competition and Consumer Commission chairman Graeme Samuel, is due to be handed to Ley by the end of the month.
The independent review
of the government's central piece of national environmental law, which
must occur every 10 years, is examining whether its objectives are being
achieved and providing recommendations to ensure it is "fit for the
future".
Once she receives the review, Ley will have to balance
the demands of industry, conservation groups and scientists who have
complained about the act's administration almost from the day it was
passed.
'Gaping chasm'
The
legislation provoked bitter divisions in the environment movement at
the time, with some groups and the Greens opposing the bill because of
what they saw as fatal flaws, including its inclusion of Regional Forest
Agreements that enabled states – the primary managers of the
environment – to substitute their regulations for federal oversight, and
its failure to recognise the widespread threat of climate change.
The
Humane Society International's head of campaigns, Nicola Beynon, who
represented the organisation when the act was drafted, says it
represented "major progress for environmental legislation at the time,
but the trade-off was ministerial discretion". The legislation does not
compel the federal minister to protect threatened species and their
habitat, she says.
"The
system is very permissive and even the last remaining habitat for a
threatened species could be approved to be cleared," Beynon adds.
Amendments
to the act in 2006 weakened community rights to appeal against
development approvals and changed the threatened species listing
process, which shifted from compulsory investigation of public
nominations to a ministerial priority list that "does allow for
political considerations to come into the process", she says.
Suzanne
Milthorpe, the Wilderness Society's national environment laws campaign
manager, says the federal minister's powers under the EPBC Act are
firmly established in law, but there is a "gaping chasm" between the
objectives of the act and its subsequent use.
"With the Franklin Dam case in 1983, Bob Hawke and the High Court firmly established that the Commonwealth government has extensive powers to protect the environment," Milthorpe says.
"Australia's
national environment laws simply don't do what they say on the tin. If
the Franklin Dam was proposed today, the EPBC Act would more likely be
used to provide political sanction for the dam to be built rather than
being used to protect the world heritage area from danger."
The
legislation created powers for the federal government to conduct
threat-abatement plans to prevent species decline and recovery plans to
help bring endangered populations back to health. But conservation
advocates warn key threats are not being addressed – such as the risk
posed to native flora and fauna by bushfire.
The system is very permissive and even the last remaining habitat for a threatened species could be approved to be cleared. The Humane Society International's head of campaigns, Nicola Beynon
Catastrophic
bushfires were forecast ahead of the 2019-20 event. Threatened species
commissioner Sally Box said the "ecological disaster" had left 119
animal species in need of "urgent management intervention".
Despite
the fact bushfires were proposed and considered for listing as a key
threatening process in 2008, the federal Environment Department has not
progressed the matter.
The Commonwealth Threatened Species Scientific
Committee reminded the government about the listing of fire risk in 2018 and the assessment was reopened for consideration. It is ongoing.
'Red lights'
If it had identified the risk, the federal government could have prevented a mass fish kill in 2019 on the Lower Darling River near Menindee in far-west NSW, says Martin Mallen-Cooper, a native fish expert and adjunct research professor at Charles Sturt University.
The
remote region made international headlines when an estimated 1 million
native Murray cod and other species perished amid the region's worst
drought on record, as shrinking river pools became de-oxygenated and
left cramped fish choking for breath.
The
site of the fish kills is downstream of Menindee Lakes, a natural lake
system that has been engineered for water storage. It had been filled as
recently as late 2016 after an unusual winter rain event flooded down
from Queensland.
But under joint management of federal and state
governments, the water was released to flow into South Australia – which
Murray-Darling Basin Authority chief executive Phillip Glyde said was
done to avoid the high evaporation rates of the shallow lake system.
However,
Mallen-Cooper says the "incredibly damaging" event could have been
prevented if the risks were identified and contingency plans put in
place.
"There should've been red lights going off" to store water ahead of 2019, he says.
"Everyone
knew the inflows over the next 12 months would be around the lowest on
record. You could see the risk and therefore you should have planned to
mitigate it. If you had held back sufficient water, and that would have
been a fair bit, you could have prevented the fish kill entirely."
Ley
will be challenged in her response to the Samuel review to balance the
push to speed up project approvals from industry groups, including the
Minerals Council and the National Farmers Federation, and calls from the
scientific community and environment movement to beef up federal
oversight.
In its submission to the review, the Wentworth Group of
Concerned Scientists said the "objectives of the [EPBC] act are not
being met", highlighting that it does not account for cumulative impacts
that come from a build-up of developments over time.
Among
the authors of the submission was Peter Cosier, a senior policy adviser
to former environment minister Robert Hill, who declined to comment for
this article.
"By themselves, individual developments may have
minimal impact on the environment but when combined, their cumulative
impact can result in long-term damage," the Wentworth Group said.
The
submission cited the example of deforestation in Great Barrier Reef
catchments, which had created marine pollution and contributed to the
fact "numerous marine species including freshwater sawfish are now
threatened".
Minerals
Council chief executive Tania Constable says "significant growth in
regulation" had not led to "better environmental and biodiversity
outcomes" and the EPBC Act was hampered by "poor collaboration and
co-ordination of policies".
"Resources wasted on duplicative
processes should instead be directed to the collection and collation of
environmental data, which would support strategic environmental outcomes
and business certainty," Constable says.
In
April, Ley said she expected Samuel would "identify a range of measures
that we can take to prevent unnecessary delays and improve
environmental standards".
"Cutting green tape is not about
removing protection for the environment – it is about getting rid of
unnecessary delays – delays that currently cost environmental groups,
businesses and the economy hundreds of millions of dollars," she said.
The minister declined to comment for this article.
Exclusive: new figure far higher than previous estimates of direct impact of global heating
Flooding in Houston, Texas, after Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Photograph: Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty
At
least $67bn of the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey in 2017 can be
attributed directly to climate breakdown, according to research that
could lead to a radical reassessment of the costs of damage from extreme
weather.
Harvey ripped through the Caribbean
and the US states of Texas and Louisiana, causing at least $90bn of
damage to property and livelihoods, and killing scores of people.
Conventional
economic estimates attributed only about $20bn of the destruction to
the direct impacts of global heating. Climate breakdown is known to be making hurricanes stronger
and may make them more likely to occur, but separating the effects of
global heating from the natural weather conditions that also cause
hurricanes is complex.
Similar methods were used in a separate study,
published last month in the same journal, that found that droughts in
New Zealand between 2007 and 2017 cost the economy about NZ$4.8bn, of
which $800m was directly linked to climate change. Floods caused insured
losses of about NZ$470m over the same period, of which NZ$140m was
linked to the climate.
The researchers say the new tools are a more accurate way of estimating the economic damage caused by climate breakdown.
“We’re
pretty sure the climate change-related damages associated with extreme
events have been underestimated in most assessments of the social cost
of carbon,” said David Frame, a professor of climate change at the
Victoria University of Wellington and the lead author of the studies.
“We think this line of research, as it matures, should provide a really
valuable input.”
Friederike Otto, the director
of the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford, who was not involved in
the research, said the method could make it possible to generate global
estimates of the true cost of climate breakdown, which could have a
profound effect on how governments and businesses approach the need to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“We have known
about the costs of climate change theoretically,” said Otto. “It’s all
very well in the abstract, but the global mean temperature does not kill
anyone – extreme events cost money and lives. Being able to attribute
these impacts to climate change means being able to convey what climate
change really means.”
She said it would become
possible to compile an inventory of the damage that could be attributed
to climate change around the world, which governments and businesses
could use to bring about change. “Hopefully this will speed up the
process of moving to net zero [carbon].”
Estimating the true costs of the climate crisis could also help developing countries seeking recognition of the loss and damage they face as a result of climate breakdown, which they argue should spur rich countries to provide more assistance. Loss and damage is likely to be one of the most vexed issues at next year’s UN Cop26 climate summit.
Legal actions
around the world would also be affected, said Tessa Khan, a co-director
of the Climate Litigation Network. Activists and local governments
around the world are taking fossil fuel companies to court
over their greenhouse gas emissions, arguing that they knowingly caused
damage while profiting from raising carbon dioxide levels.
“[The
two new studies] are opening to door to stronger evidence to persuade
courts that fossil fuel companies should be held accountable for their
role,” Khan said. “This will strengthen the legal basis of these
lawsuits.”
The COVID-19 crisis shows that we need to be prepared and act quickly in response to the climate crisis.
The climate change crisis is our next great challenge, but we must learn from the mistakes of our response to the novel coronavirus.
Rosie Perper/Business Insider
Authors
Patrick Bolton is the Barbara and David Zalaznick Professor of Business at Columbia University and Visiting Professor at Imperial College London.
Marcin Kacperczyk is a Professor of Finance at Imperial College London.
As COVID-19 rocketed across the globe, many countries took swift,
drastic action to lock down their countries in order to save lives.
At
every economic level, communities quickly adapted to new public health
requirements in order to protect against the spread of the disease.
In
a matter of months, every major city across the globe shut down
activities that put people at risk. It has come at a devastating cost,
but concern for the science behind this dangerous virus has largely
prevailed.
This moment is not to be celebrated. But the lessons we
have learned in the COVID-19 outbreak will pave the way as we confront a
climate change crisis that is already causing a catastrophe. It can
feel insignificant in comparison to the global pandemic, but we entered
2020 on fire, literally, the Australian wildfires destroyed 27 million
acres in a matter of weeks. And in the first five months of 2020
surpassed 2019 as the warmest start to the year on record.
If we
have any hope of surviving and emerging from the climate crisis, we need
to view the swift and strong reaction to COVID-19 as a dry run for the
action needed to meet the challenges of a warming planet. The changes we
must make will require a radical departure from the norm, and we will
need to sustain these changes.
The COVID-19 crisis shows we can be prepared and act quickly.
Countries
that have so far mitigated the health costs of COVID-19 – including
Germany and South Korea – have shown the importance of preparedness in
reducing the impact of a crisis.
These countries recognized the
need for spare hospital beds, trained nurses, testing kits, and PPE, to
confront the pandemic. Countries with more redundancy in their resources
have endured a smaller health shock than others – a note all countries
should take before the climate crisis hits hard.
The coronavirus
outbreak also painfully reinforced the importance of international
cooperation in solving a global crisis. During the Great Recession, the
world's leading central banks collaborated with the G20 on a coordinated
economic response.
But at the early stages of this pandemic, the global
response was disjointed and leaderless If the global community could
have worked together on testing and screening, it's possible the global
outbreak might have been less severe.
It's time to get ready for the next crisis
It
is time, even in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, to start taking
stronger action to address climate change to soften the blow of the
approaching climate shock.
Just as we should have had better-prepared healthcare systems for a
pandemic, we should be better prepared to react to climate change with a
more sustainable economy. This means implementing climate mitigation
policies such as carbon pricing, the integration of sustainability into
financial practices and accounting frameworks, the search for
appropriate policy mixes, and the development of new financial
mechanisms at the international level.
History has shown us that
green-focused economic recovery plans are more beneficial than their
traditional counterparts in both the short and long-term. Research
from our colleagues at Columbia reveals that green projects not only
deliver jobs off the bat, they also work toward a carbon-conscious
future.
Businesses and governments should start with factoring
climate-related risk analysis into financial stability monitoring.
Central banks and the financial sector must start treating climate
change as a "green swan"
risk: an extremely disruptive event that could ignite a chain reaction
of financial and political crises. Their leadership to mitigate the
climate crisis could mobilize action among governments, the private
sector, and the international community.
Encouragingly, our research
reveals that financial markets are beginning to factor in the risk of
climate change. Even though companies with high carbon emissions may
offer investors high earnings, investors are demanding more from these
companies in terms of stock returns because of the risk associated with
climate change. In the future, these companies may be starved of
capital.
Private sector banks, including Barclays and Standard Chartered,
are reorienting their investments to measure the carbon emissions of
their portfolios and reduce their exposure to companies that pollute.
The
transition to sustainability cannot happen overnight. Actions at all
levels are needed and each one requires a careful assessment of the
costs and benefits, whether economic or social. Blunt regulations that
suddenly punish everyone could end up being counterproductive. What we
need are fairly targeted interventions that focus on the parts of the
economy where the benefits are greatest relative to the costs.
And
we must start now. The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that we have
the capacity for bold global action. But the expression flattening the
curve carries an implicit note of optimism – suggesting that the wave
will pass. The climate crisis, unlike the coronavirus pandemic, will not
pass. The changes it brings will be permanent.
As we recover
from coronavirus, our aim shouldn't be to go back to normal but to take
the lessons we've learned to strive towards a greener future.
Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), a mosquito-transmitted disease, appears to be becoming more prevalent in the eastern U.S.— bad news for humans considering some of the debilitating after-effects and even mortality brought on by EEEV.
One likely factor helping mosquitoes spread EEEV is climate change. Current trends point to even more cases of EEEV in the coming years as conditions become optimal for mosquitoes to procreate, feed, and spread.
Disease-laden mosquitoes carrying the eastern
equine encephalitis virus (EEEV)—sometimes abbreviated as
EEE—appear to
be moving north and spreading the deadly infection into areas where it
was previously not known to exist.
The likely culprit? Climate change,
which has long been an issue affecting things like migratory patterns in
animals, melting glaciers—which could release new viruses we are not prepared to treat—and even animal size.
In
2019, there was an EEEV outbreak in the U.S. that affected 36 people.
That might not seem like a high number, but EEEV is very uncommon,
making 36 confirmed cases in a year is a concerning amount.
To make matters worse, there is no treatment or cure for EEEV which is fatal in 30 percent of people who contract it per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) said
that “2019 has been a particularly deadly year for the [EEEV] in the
United States,” citing the aforementioned 36 cases which spread across
eight states with 13 of the cases being fatal.
EEEV spreads to humans via mosquito bite.
It does not spread from person to person, other animals to people, or
people to animals. The disease can then cause encephalitis—swelling of
the brain—that can be deadly. In instances when EEEV is not fatal, it
can leave a person with neurological problems, ranging from “mild brain
dysfunction to severe intellectual impairment,” says the CDC.
EEEV
symptoms include fever, chills, arthralgia, and myalgia. The CDC adds
that people tend to make a full recovery when “there is no central
nervous system involvement.” In addition to being fatal and causing
neurological issues in humans, EEEV is also a health hazard to horses,
which is where the virus' name originates. The University of Tennessee
College of Veterinary Medicine reports that EEEV is “most commonly seen in horses in the southeastern U.S.”
EEEV is not new in the U.S. In a 2013 paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine, entomologist Theodore Andreadis and a colleague said:
Since the discovery of the EEE virus in the 1930s, cases in humans had been sporadic and restricted to areas south of northern New England until a disease outbreak struck New Hampshire in 2005. Over the past decade, we have witnessed a sustained resurgence of EEE virus activity within longstanding foci in the northeastern United States and northward expansion into regions where the virus was historically rare or previously unknown, including northern New England and eastern Canada.
Additionally,
the paper authors wrote that virus transmission is “highly seasonal and
dependent on weather conditions,” with the most favorable being
“forested swamp habitats” where mosquitoes thrive.
With winters becoming milder and summers getting
warmer, the weather is continually changing to favor the birth and
spread of disease-carrying mosquitoes.
“Milder
winters, in turn, may enhance the overwintering survival of mosquito
vectors and allow mosquitoes to extend their range northward. Warmer
summer conditions accelerate the generation time of mosquitoes, their
frequency of blood feeding, and the rate of virus replication within
mosquitoes,” say Andreadis and colleague.
If
climate change continues following the current trajectory, we could be
facing a slew of viruses we're not used to treating in the coming
decades.
“These environmental changes have the
potential to alter disease risk by increasing the abundance and
distribution of the vector, lengthening the virus-transmission season,
and increasing the intensity of virus transmission,” conclude the paper
authors.
Vineyards across Australia's 71 wine regions may have to managed differently as the climate changes. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)
Key points
The Climate Atlas details how the climate will change in winegrowing regions over the next 80 years
It predicts some regions may begin to resemble others, with changes to temperature, rainfall and aridity
Winegrowers are looking to adapt to better cater for a changing climate
A
world-first research document about to be released has detailed how
Australia's famous winegrowing regions will be forced to adapt due to
climate change.
It
predicts the Barossa Valley will become more like the Riverland is now,
while Tasmanian wine regions will resemble the current temperature of
the Coonawarra.
Commissioned by Wine Australia, the Climate Atlas took University of Tasmania climate researchers three years to put together.
It
charts an 80-year course for climate change, including temperature,
rainfall, aridity and frost for each of the country's 71 wine regions.
The Climate Atlas was compiled by the Climate Futures Group at the University of Tasmania. (Supplied: University of Tasmania)
"It's
pivotal; I think this will be a line-in-the-sand body of work," said
Hunter Valley viticulturist Liz Riley, one of the first industry
insiders to analyse the data.
With the Hunter
destined to become three degrees warmer by 2100, with more intense and
frequent heatwaves and more rainfall, Ms Riley is concerned for the
health and safety of workers who will need to endure hotter, more humid
conditions during the harvest season.
"We've
focused a lot in climate change on managing the vineyard, but I think
how we manage the people has probably been the greatest surprise within
the [data] that's come out," she said.
A changing climate may affect everything from grape varieties to vineyard staffing. (Supplied: Unsplash)
Impact on colder climates
The colder wine regions are not immune to heat and aridity changes.
All
eight wine regions in Tasmania will become hotter, some will become
drier and others slightly wetter, but the water availability will be
reduced, measured by an aridity index.
"It's going
to get hotter and drier in most Australian regions," said lead author
Tom Remenyi, from the University of Tasmania's Climate Futures Group.
"That
warming, drying trend is because as the temperature increases, there is
more evaporative demand, so there is this drying pressure on the
landscape which would require it to increase in rainfall to maintain the
same balance we have at the moment."
Dr Tom Remenyi turned the Climate Atlas data into an online tool. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)
He
said the data in the Climate Atlas drew on well-established and proven
global climate models and the projections were based on the current
high-carbon-emissions scenario.
"The Australian
wine industry is the first industry to have this kind of information
available to them at the resolution that is relevant to growers on the
ground, and that gives them an enormous chance to choose their future,"
Dr Remenyi said.
'A wow moment' for winegrowers
Grape
growers and winemakers can now compare the future of their regions with
others that are already experiencing those temperatures and rainfall
conditions.
For instance, over the next two decades
Margaret River can expect its current mean growing season rainfall to
drop from 206mm to 164mm by 2100, and the temperature is destined to
rise just under three degrees, making it comparable to the current
temperature of the Swan District, north of Perth.
Wine
industry participants can seek information, such as soil and vine
management and irrigation techniques, and even swap to varieties that
will suit their changing climate.
For Tasmanian
wine grower Max Marriot, there is concern as to whether his region could
still grow the cool climate pinot noir and chardonnay it has built a
reputation on.
Max Marriot was shocked to hear the report's predictions. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)
"Tasmania
could have a trajectory in 70 or 80 years time that sees it as a
climate equivalent of Coonawarra, or growing degree days equivalent to
South Australia," he said.
"When [Dr Remenyi] told me, it was very much a wow moment.
"This is going to have consequences."
Planning for change
Tasmanian winegrowers have already started thinking about how they will mitigate the higher temperatures and aridity.
Paul and Gilli Lipscombe moved to the Huon Valley to grow pinot noir in what they call "marginal" country.
Gilli Lipscombe has concerns for their dryland vineyard if the climate becomes more arid. (ABC Landline: Mitchell Woolnough)
They
do not have any irrigation, but concede they may need to in the future
if, as the data suggests, the region becomes more arid.
"To have really detailed numbers and projections for the next 20, 30, 40, 50 years, it's hugely beneficial," Ms Lipscombe said.
"We can make really concrete plans on what we need to do and how we need to approach the next few decades."
Australia's
Wine Future: A Climate Atlas is due to be released publicly and free of
charge on the Wine Australia website on Monday.
