10/09/2020

(AU) Class Action To Stop Planned Coal Mine Extension Filed By Climate Action-Focused Australian Teenagers

ABC News - Michael Slezak | Penny Timms


Australian teenagers explain why they are seeking an injunction to stop a major coal mine extension.

Key Points
  • The injunction, an Australian first, is part of a growing wave of climate litigation claims
  • Rather than making the claim under environmental law, the class action asserts Federal Minister Sussan Ley has a common law duty of care for young people
  • The class action argues that by digging up and burning coal, climate change will be made worse and that will harm young people in the future
A class action launched on behalf of young people everywhere seeks an injunction to stop the Australian Government approving an extension to Whitehaven's Vickery coal mine, arguing it will harm young people by exacerbating climate change.

The injunction, filed in the Federal Court on Tuesday, is a first for Australia.

An expert says it could break new legal ground with widespread ramifications, causing problems for any new coal mine in Australia — and possibly any fossil fuel project — if it is successful.

Though the injunction itself is unique, it is part of a growing wave of climate litigation in Australia and comes less than two months after 23-year-old Melbourne law student Katta O'Donnell filed a class action against the Australian Government for failing to disclose the risk climate change poses to Australians' super and other low risk investments.

Izzy Raj-Seppings, 13, is one of the representative plaintiffs in this new case, and filed the injunction along with seven other young people aged from 13 to 17 — many of whom met during School Strike 4 Climate and were looking for more ways to take action.

The Sydney high school student made headlines last year when police ordered her to move on after organising a School Strike 4 Climate protest outside the Prime Minister's Kirribilli residence.

Izzy Raj-Seppings during the protest in December. (AAP: Steven Saphore)

She said climate change worried her, but taking part in action such as the lawsuit gave her hope.

"We're trying to get the Federal Environment Minister to prevent the Vickery coal mine going ahead because we believe she has a duty of care for young Australians and young people all over the world," Ms Raj-Seppings said.

"I definitely have hope because if you look around, you can see all the incredible climate activists, young and old, all these people fighting for what's right.

"And we are making change."

Izzy Raj-Seppings with her father Barrie Seppings at Dee Why beach. (ABC News: Brendan Esposito)

First of its kind

 Rather than making the claim under environmental law, the class action claims the Federal Minister, Sussan Ley, has a common law duty of care for young people and cannot approve actions that will make climate change worse.

The class action argues that by digging up and burning coal, climate change will be made worse and that will harm them in the future.

David Barnden from Equity Generation Lawyers, who is representing the students, said the impacts of climate change on youth go "over and above regular people" because of their age.

David Barnden from Equity Generation Lawyers. (ABC News: Brendan Esposito)

"The law operates to protect vulnerable people by saying that people in power have a duty to protect them," Mr Barnden said.

"In this particular case, we say that the Environment Minister has a duty to protect vulnerable people.
"What this case does is say that 'the coal needs to stay in the ground and it can't be burnt'.
"And the minister has the obligation to protect younger people and not approve the mine."

Mr Barnden is a specialist in climate litigation and is also representing Ms O'Donnell in her action against the Federal Government as well as 26 year-old Mark McVeigh, who revealed in January he is suing super fund REST for not doing enough on climate change.

This new case is a class action, with the eight young people claiming to represent every person in the world under the age of 18.

Avav Princi, Izzy Raj-Seppings, Veronica Hester, Laura Kirwan and Ambrose Hayes are all part of the action. (ABC News: Brendan Esposito)

Class actions allow a group of people to bring a legal action on behalf of a larger group who are affected in a similar way.

Mr Barnden argues a precedent for this case was set in 2016 when an injunction stopped the then minister for immigration from moving a refugee to anywhere besides Australia, because he had a duty of care for her.

Emrys Nekvapil, one of the barristers who won that case, is also representing the students.

'Huge ramifications' for coal

 The mine at the centre of the case is Whitehaven's proposed extension to the Vickery Coal Mine north of Gunnedah in NSW.

Whitehaven's application to build the extension is now before Environment Minister Sussan Ley, who must decide whether to approve it or not.

The Vickery Extension Project proposes an open-cut coal mine about 25km north of Gunneah in north-west NSW. (Whitehaven Coal)

The case asks for an injunction on the Minister's decision.

If it proceeds, additional coal from the mine extension will create roughly 100 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gasses, according to the NSW Independent Planning Commission — or about as much as is created each year in Australia by all forms of domestic transport combined.

Whitehaven did not respond to a request for comment.

A spokesperson for Environment Minister Sussan Ley confirmed they received the injunction application, but could not comment as the matter was before the courts.

The young people and lawyers behind the injunction application said it was about much more than one coal mine.

"If we win and if we can injunct the minister from making a decision to approve it, it could have huge ramifications for other new coal mines in Australia," Mr Barnden said.

"And it might mean the end of any new coal mine in Australia.

"We're playing to win."

Barrister and legal academic Chris McGrath said the case would be difficult.

"That's the nature of big litigation like this," Dr McGrath said. "You're breaking new ground — they're hard by nature.

"You can see a whole heap of obstacles and things that will be thrown up by the Government to try and hinder the case going forward and block it."

The teens said they were in it to win. (ABC News: Brendan Esposito)

Dr McGrath said even they did win, the impact was unclear.

He said it would be a thorn in the side of fossil fuel projects in the future, but governments would likely still be able to find ways of approving coal mines.

But according to Izzy Raj-Seppings, allowing coal mines to go ahead — no matter where the coal was burned — is harming her future.

"It will create more climate refugees and we'll have a lasting health impact on all of us," she said. 

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(AU) Last Season's Climate Catastrophes Cost Insurers $5.4b

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Hannam

Australia's most recent climate-related disasters cost insurers more than $5 billion as global warming increased the risk of catastrophic bushfires, damaging hailstorms and more powerful cyclones and east coast lows, the country's biggest insurer says.

In the second edition of its Severe Weather in a Changing Climate report, released on Wednesday, IAG said Australia was already being affected by more extreme weather as the atmosphere warmed. New research indicates those impacts are likely to continue to increase.

Bushfire risks are on the rise across almost all parts of Australia as the climate heats up, IAG says in a new report. Credit:  Nick Moir 

Just four events – last season's massive bushfires, hailstorms in Canberra and the Sunshine Coast, and February's east coast low – will generate insurance claims of about $5.4 billion, Mark Leplastrier, IAG's executive manager, natural perils, said. Claims for the fires alone will be about $2.3 billion.

The report found bushfire weather risks will increase across almost all parts of Australia, with seasons lengthening and the windows for safely conducting so-called hazard-reduction fires narrowing.

"When the conditions get right, they get right big time," said Greg Holland, an emeritus senior scientist with the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research, which worked with IAG on the report.

The recent fire season demonstrated that building codes introduced after the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria were inadequate for the most extreme days and will need to be tightened.

Mr Leplastrier said that since bushfire risk, much like floods, falls dramatically the further a home is from the peril, governments should consider intervening to halt residents moving into high-threat spots.

"There's not a mechanism to actually to stop or prohibit building like there is in flood," he said. "Those are some of the tougher decisions we’re going to have to make as a broader approach."

Many homes and vehicles in Berowra Heights sustained damage when a hailstorm hit the area in December 2018. Studies show hailstones are getting bigger. Credit: Wolter Peeters

Another peril on the rise is hailstorms, with research showing events with hailstones up to 5 centimetres in diameter or larger have increased in frequency in south-eastern Australia.Areas facing increased risk include Sydney, Adelaide, Perth, Canberra and Melbourne, but also inland areas such as the Hunter Valley and central and eastern Victoria, the report found.

East coast lows, several of which have battered NSW, are also changing in ways that are likely to increase their impacts on coastal regions.

Dr Holland said that while the overall frequency of such lows may be trending lower, for the more dangerous ones that draw in large amounts of tropical moisture there has been a "substantial increase".

Heavy surf stirred up by an east coast low off the NSW coast in July 2020. The more damaging type of such events is on the increase in a warming world, IAG says. Credit: Nick Moir

Not only is there more rain to dump, winds are stronger, damaging properties but also whipping up the bigger surf that increases beach erosion.

For NSW, the hotspots are Bega on the South Coast, the Hawkesbury-Nepean valley and the Hunter region, where there is both the uplift of air and a funnelling effect from the geography.

"These are the areas that are the most prone to get significant damage," Dr Holland said.

Aerial photos of Lismore showing flooding from the aftermath of Cyclone Debbie in March 2017. Cyclones are tracking further south and the share of major ones is on the rise. Credit: Rotorwing Helicopter Services

With the atmosphere holding 7 per cent more moisture for each degree of warming, other big weather events such as cyclones or floods are also trending towards more extremes and are projected to continue to do so.

Across the world, the share of cyclones with a category 4 or 5 strength have increased from about a one-in-10 proportion in pre-industrial times to about one in every four or five now, a ratio also observed off Australia's north-east coast, the report said.

Rainfall dumped offshore from cyclones has been rising but overland the pace of increase is two to three times, Dr Holland said.

Likewise, massive flooding events that might have happened once in 1000 years in areas such as the Murray Darling Basin may become once in a century events, catching planners and residents off-guard.

“We are getting to the point where we are going to experience things that we didn’t know existed," Dr Holland said.

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(AU) ‘Climigration’: Whole Communities Are Moving Due To Climate Change

The Big Smoke Australia - Tony Matthews

‘Climigration’ defines the forced migration of communities impacted by climate change. Louisiana was the first state-sanctioned move, but they certainly will not be the last.



Author
Dr Tony Matthews is an award-winning Urban and Environmental Planner, with portfolios in academia, practice and the media.
He is a faculty member at Griffith University, where he is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Environment & Science and the Cities Research Institute.
Climate change increasingly threatens communities all over the world.

News of fires, floods and coastal erosion devastating lives and livelihoods seems almost constant.

The latest fires in Queensland and New South Wales mark the start of the earliest bushfire season the states have ever seen.

What happens when climate change causes extreme events to become chronic, potentially rendering some communities unviable?

This question is fuelling a new strand of global research focused on “climigration”. Climigration is the planned relocation of entire communities to new locations further from harm. And it has already begun.

It takes a lot to convince a community to move. But extreme events disrupt communities socially, economically and physically. Buildings and infrastructure are damaged, as are community cohesion and morale. Lives may be lost; many others are changed forever.

When extreme events disrupt communities, responses usually occur in one of two ways. We can try to repair damage and continue as before, which is known as resilience. Or we try to repair and fortify against future damage in a process of adaptation. Climigration is an extreme form of climate change adaptation,

This article draws on our recently published research, which investigated how land-use and strategic planning frameworks can prepare for climigration.

Climigration is no longer a concern for the future; it is a challenge today. The notion of strategically relocating entire communities has quickly moved from imagination to reality.

For instance, in 2016 the US Department of Housing and Urban Development provided US$1 billion to help communities adapt to climate change in 13 states. The grants included the first direct allocation of federal funding to move an entire community.

Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana is the first US community to undergo federally sanctioned climigration. The move has been forced by the loss of coastal land to rising seas and storm surges. Last December, the state bought land at residents’ preferred site to develop their new community.



Climigration options were previously considered in Alaska. Climate-induced coastal erosion has threatened the viability of the village of Newtok for many years. Its residents voted in 2003 to relocate to higher ground but the relocation looks unlikely to be completed before 2023.

In Australia, more than 100 households in Grantham, Queensland, were relocated to higher ground with government assistance after devastating floods caused by an exceptionally strong La Niña in 2011.

Critical factors in climigration

Climigration is, of course, not a phenomenon restricted to the US and Australia. It is a growing concern for many countries.

Our research sought to establish a framework for effective climigration planning. We systematically reviewed international case studies of community relocations undertaken because of environmental hazards. As part of this we developed a hierarchy of influencing factors in planning for climigration.

We found that the degree to which a community agrees on the need to relocate is a crucial influence. Consensus generates social capital, which supports action and improves the prospects of successful outcomes.

Perception of the timing and severity of risks is another critical factor. Immediate, obvious risks are more likely to motivate action. Motivation can be low if risks are seen as a problem for the distant future, even if impacts may eventually be devastating.

Political, economic and logistical support from government moderately influences the success of community relocation. Relocation may still occur without government support, but this is not preferable and the chances of success are lower.

Strong local leadership can improve the capacity of communities to face the reality of relocation and then to resettle. Strategic leadership from outside agencies is a complement to local leadership, not a substitute.

Strategic and land-use planning systems will be central public agencies in many climigration cases.

Planners already have relevant skills and training. These include community consultation, mediation and stakeholder engagement. Planners can coordinate land acquisition and development applications. They can provide temporary housing, infrastructure and transportation.

Planning for climigration also requires other professional input, including disaster management, social psychology and engineering.

Strategic planning for climigration should begin as early as possible. Vulnerable communities can be identified using risk mapping.

Alternative sites can then be shortlisted and potential logistical demands identified.

Securing land for relocation may place planners in the middle of competing forces. They need to be careful and deliberative to balance the expectations of residents, government, and the market.

Consultation is vital to secure community consensus in the event of climigration. It is a key tool for planners to explain risks and engage residents in crucial decisions.

Specific policy frameworks for climigration are preferable but not essential. When used, they can improve coordination and reduce the risk of negative outcomes.

A confronting concept

While climigration is not yet a common planning issue, it is likely to become an increasingly urgent agenda. Climigration events like those in Louisiana, Alaska and Queensland are just the first wave.

There are limits to the feasibility of climigration. It might only be viable for small towns and villages. Undoubtedly there will be cases where climigration is rejected as too much of challenge.

Triage-based planning could be helpful in deciding which communities to relocate.

Accepting the notion of climigration may be the biggest challenge for planners. The idea that the only viable future for a community is to be relocated elsewhere is unusual and confronting. Managing climigration through planning practice may prove more straightforward than adjusting to the idea in the first place.

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09/09/2020

Dubbed 'China's Greta Thunberg', Howey Ou Is Fighting For Climate Action In A Country Where Few Others Will

SBS - Rashida Yosufzai

For Howey Ou, described by some as the “Chinese Greta Thunberg”, raising awareness about climate change is a lonely challenge. But, as the 17-year-old tells SBS News, she's not ready to stop fighting.

Source: Instagram

 A teenager is interrogated for hours by police in China. Her metadata is searched. Later, she’s kicked out of school. Her parents are worried for her safety, so she leaves home.

But Howey Ou isn’t a spy or a criminal. She’s a climate change activist - and despite these challenges, she isn’t afraid to keep on protesting and raising awareness about a problem she feels most of her compatriots are apathetic about.

Howey, now 17, says attitudes in her country on climate change are “not up to date”, and there’s seldom any discussion on the news or at an official level.

“The country isn’t really treating this as a crisis,” she told SBS News.

When she was arrested in May 2019, Howey was on day seven of a protest outside a government building in her native Guilin, trying to warn people about climate change.

Police took her to a station before moving her to a different location. When she got here, she saw her parents were already being questioned.

Howey Ou outside the Guilin People’s Government building in May 2019. Twitter

Police interrogated Howey for three hours and searched her metadata. They asked her who she met, who she talked to during the protest, and whether she’d spoken to any foreigners.

She said the police later had dinner with her parents to “try and have good relations” with them.

In the fallout following her arrest, Howey’s parents confiscated her electronic devices and grounded her out of concern for her safety.

“I left home after that,” she said.

Greta’s influence

Howey is from the southern Chinese city of Guilin, which is known for its lush green hills, blue lakes and boasts some of world's most beautiful karst landscapes.

That may have influenced why she's always had a love for the environment and nature.

But it wasn’t until two years ago when she saw the climate change documentary An Inconvenient Truth that the threat of climate change became front and centre in her mind.

She was also inspired by a young Swedish girl who, at the time, was taking on the world with her message to reduce global emissions.

If Greta Thunberg could do it, so can I, Howey thought.

So, she went to see if there was a Chinese chapter of School Strike For Climate, the youth activist movement inspired by Ms Thunberg.

Howey Ou was rejected from her school for her activism. Twitter

To her shock, there wasn’t. So, like Ms Thunberg did during her first climate strikes, Howey decided to go it alone.

That's how she finds herself standing on busy streets every Friday holding up signs warning passers-by about the urgency of climate change action.

Usually she'll stand there for about three hours but some days it's six.

And while sometimes she'll have a friend with her, she's often alone.

Only a handful of people ever stop to ask her what she's doing, even though, she said, hundreds or even thousands of people will walk by ignoring her.

"Some glare and stop to see what happens, sometimes [they'll] ask [what I'm doing], but mostly I explain to them this is for social goods and environment (sic), so they understand," she said.

On rare occasions people ask for photos or encourage her from afar. Then there are those who think she's being unpatriotic.

"Some will think this is against [the] country, with some inconvenience and hate," she added.

Howey and Ms Thunberg haven't met in person, but the Swede has described her Chinese counterpart as a “true hero”.

'China needs more climate activists'

In May this year, Howey applied for school but was rejected.

“The principal … told me that if I continue (climate activism) then they will not accept me,” she said.

She is still hoping to go to university and take online courses. But her parents worry.

“They still think I should go back to school and study and to do this (activism) when I’m older,” Howey said.

“But I don’t agree with that."










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A post shared by Howey Ou (@howey_ou) on
“China doesn’t need one more climate scientist … it needs more and more climate activists to [stress] this issue to the government.

“The [climate] emergency is getting more and more serious.”

There have been recent warnings China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is facing an increased risk of flooding amid rising temperatures.

The most recent floods in July across central and southern China killed at least 210 people.

“By the end of the current century, China is projected to be affected the most by flooding, with 40 million people affected and 110 billion Euros of damage per year,” a research paper by the Lancet revealed.

For now, Howey wants to raise awareness through non-violent, civil disobedience – in a country where such actions could get her into trouble with authorities.

“It is the only way to work in this kind of situation,” she said.

“Throughout history we know that this is [an] efficient way to make social change. We are aware of the possible risk and we will take the risk tenuously.

“If we don’t do this, we will face social collapse and mass starvation.”

'The system is still running as usual'

Howey has more than ten thousand followers on social media, but has struggled to find wider support within China.

Grassroots social movements can be heavily suppressed by the government, and the climate change movement there is lacking in participants.

Last year, Howey travelled solo around the country on a shoestring budget, meeting with environmental organisations and activists. But she said many had little understanding of the climate crisis.

And last October, she faced criticism from millions online when a German media interview with her went viral on Chinese social media.

Many accused her of attention-seeking and "armchair activism", while others made unflattering comparisons to Ms Thunberg, who is herself a frequent object of ridicule on the Chinese internet.

When she’s asked if she’s worried for her safety, Howey replies: “I’m afraid that the world is in a very dangerous situation. The change is still nowhere in sight and all the people and the system is still running as usual. There is nothing happening in the world. And I’m worried about that.

“We need to use the science to let people know what is going on… inspire them and to protect them by our own sacrificing (sic).

“When they see protesters don’t fear anything, to like, sacrifice themselves for a better world, or a livable world, they will feel really important [and] respect the protesters”.

Additional reporting by AFP.

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(USA) 'This Is Crazy.' A Record 2 Million Acres Of California Has Burned This Year With Heat Conditions Predicted To Continue

TIME - Jasmine Aguilera

A firefighter fights against the Creek Fire which started Friday afternoon, blew up and grew to 73,278 acres on September 06, 2020, in Shaver Lake, Fresno County, California, United States. Photo by Neal Waters/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

More than 2 million acres of land have been burned by wildfires in California as of Monday, according to state fire agency Cal Fire, surpassing the all-time record of 1.9 million set in 2018.

Cal Fire and climate scientists predict that the number of acres burned this year will continue to grow with upcoming weather conditions, including continued heat and offshore winds.

“This is crazy. We haven’t even got into the October and November fire season and we’ve broken the all-time record,” Cal Fire Capt. Richard Cordova told CNN on Sunday.

A Monday statement by Cal Fire said it and fire departments across the state remain prepared for potentially more significant wildfires due to critical fire weather.

In a Friday tweet, climate scientist Daniel Swain of the University of California, Los Angeles, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, predicted Monday’s new record. He tells TIME the prediction was not very impressive “since we were 95% of the way there on Friday.”



The state is experiencing another wave of record-breaking heat this weekend, and offshore winds beginning around this time of year—the Santa Anna winds in the south, and the Diablo winds in the north—are expected to spread fires further towards the coast of California, according to Swain, where most people live.

“All indications are that this fire season is going to continue to be worse than average,” Swain says.

With the large number of fires burning already, stretching firefighting resources, and the combination of a heat wave and offshore winds, “you don’t even need new ignitions, new sparks,” Swain adds. “These winds will push those fires in places where we don’t want them to go, close to where people live.”

On late Sunday, Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in five California counties, including Fresno, Madera, Mariposa, San Bernardino and San Diego counties. The largest un-contained fire, known as the Creek Fire near Fresno, Calif., has burned more than 78,000 acres as of Monday, according to Cal Fire.

Climate change has worsened fire conditions in the state, primarily by effecting the dryness of vegetation, Swain says.

One thing worth noting, Swain adds, is that huge numbers of acres burning isn’t inherently bad. “The problem is that the kinds of fires we’re seeing specifically right now are mostly bad fires because they’re occurring in close proximity to where people live,” he says.

Historically, the state of California has tried to completely suppress fires, creating unnaturally dense forests that then become susceptible to more extreme weather events caused by climate change.

“The growing concensus among climate scientists is that more fire on the landscape is inevitable in the 21st Century,” Swain says. “What we want to do is decrease the number of acres that are burning at an extremely high intensity and the ones that threaten people’s homes and lives…And the way to do that might actually be to allow more of the other kinds of good fire on the landscape.”

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(USA) California Wildfires Illustrate The Consequences Of Climate Change

PBS NewsHour - Amna Nawaz

 A record heat wave is scorching California, where about two dozen wildfires are currently burning.

Nearly 15,000 firefighters are battling steep terrain and extremely dry conditions as they struggle to control the raging infernos.

On Sunday, temperatures in Los Angeles County reached 121 degrees.

Amna Nawaz reports and talks to Leah Stokes of the University of California, Santa Barbara.


  • Amna Nawaz:

    California tonight is home to a record-shattering heat wave and about two dozen wildfires currently burning across the state.

    Nearly 15,000 firefighters are battling steep terrain and tinder-dry conditions, as they fight to control the raging infernos. This afternoon, the U.S. Forest Service announced it will temporarily close national forests in the southern and central regions of the state because of the fire risk.

    More than two million acres already scorched this year in California, record-breaking swathes of land burning under record-breaking temperatures. Governor Gavin Newsom last night declared a state of emergency in five counties, as some 20 fire conglomerates smolder across the state.

    The largest fire alone, Fresno's Creek Fire, has burned over 73,000 acres. A caravan of Labor Day weekend campers were surrounded by flames, and forced to flee to a nearby lake.

    Sisters Katelynn and McKenzie Meek escaped the fire's path.


  • Katelynn Meek:
    One minute you're just sitting in that camp, and, the next, you're driving through flames to save everything.


  • Amna Nawaz:

    Backpacker Juliana Park documented her drive out of Sierra National Forest, the road lined with flames.

    Rescue teams deployed to Fresno have already airlifted out more than 200 trapped campers.


  • David Hall:

    The crews were absolutely ecstatic when they came off the helicopters.


  • Amna Nawaz:

    Colonel David Hall of the California Army National Guard.


  • David Hall:

    All of the individuals that they rescued were greeting the crew members with hugs as they were boarding onto the helicopter, and then, again, after getting off the helicopter, a lot of high-fives.


  • Amna Nawaz:

    Several fires still burn completely uncontained, and state excessive heat warnings are in effect until tonight. Officials warn, the worst may be yet to come.

    Temperatures in Los Angeles County reached a record high of 121 degrees yesterday. While it's cooler there today, temperatures inland are expected to top 100.

    For a closer look at what's behind that heat wave and what's fueling these fires, I'm joined by Leah Stokes, she's a professor and researcher on climate, energy and political policy at the University of California, Santa Barbara. She joins us this holiday from Ontario, Canada.

    Leah Stokes, welcome to the "NewsHour."

    Let's start with that warning. Why is it that authorities believe that this fire season could get even worse soon?


  • Leah Stokes:

    Well, unfortunately, climate change is happening right now in California.

    And we have been lengthening the fire season quite considerably as we warm up the planet.

    In California, our fire season is now two-and-a-half months longer than it used to be, which means that people are at risk all the time. And, as you mentioned, we're seeing record heat waves, not just in Los Angeles County, but also in Santa Barbara County, San Luis Obispo County. And all that heat is really increasing risk for fires.


  • Amna Nawaz:

    Now, you mentioned climate change, of course.

    How do we know that that connection is there? Because we should mention, some of the activities that spark the fires are in fact just related to human behavior. There was one fire started by a gender reveal party, in which someone used a smoke machine that sparked a fire.

    So, explain that connection to us.


  • Leah Stokes:

    Yes.

    It is true, of course, that we make decisions in our daily lives, such as the people who decided to have that gender reveal party. But it becomes so much more risky to actually have that spark light a fire under climate change.

    So, we know, because of research from scientists, that we have 500 percent more risk for wildfires during this climate changed world than we would have before. And that's because it's really hot and dry, because we have had droughts.

    And, of course, that drought, which is caused by climate change, has led to a lot of vegetation dying, meaning there's a lot of brush lying around that can easily light up. And a little spark from a gender reveal party or whatever it is can end up being a massive inferno very quickly.

    So, of course, people need to be careful and be held accountable when they light fires. But the fact is, climate change is the real culprit behind what we're seeing right now.


  • Amna Nawaz:

    We should mention, too, California's fire record goes back to 1932, but the 10 biggest fires on record there have all happened after 2000.

    Should we expect that trend to continue?


  • Leah Stokes:

    Unfortunately, we should.

    I have only lived in California for five years, and I have already been evacuated from my home for weeks on end. And what scientists are telling us is that we are entering a period of mega-fires, where the scale of burning is just beyond what we have seen before.

    So, as you mentioned, we're seeing really large fires. And there isn't any reason to believe that that will stop, because we are not taking the climate crisis seriously, and we are not reducing fossil fuel emissions around the world.

    So, California really is the canary in the coal mine here, and we need to be waking up. And just as the bird was dying from coal, we too are dying from burning coal, oil and fossil gas.


  • Amna Nawaz:

    We should mention also we are mid-fire season now.

    Are there steps that residents or local authorities and state authorities can be taking to mitigate damage for the rest of the season and prepare for next year?


  • Leah Stokes:

    Absolutely.

    Our firefighters and our cities are doing the best that they can. They do all kinds of things like suggest that residents make small retrofits to their home that can dramatically reduce fire risk. They do things like create fuel breaks, which sometimes are controversial, for good reason.

    So, people are trying. But the really big solution here is taking on the climate crisis. And that means that we need new leadership, particularly in Washington. We need somebody who actually believes that climate change is real.

    And, unfortunately, we don't have that right now.


  • Amna Nawaz:

    That is Leah Stokes from the University of California, Santa Barbara, joining us tonight. Thank you so much for your time.


  • Leah Stokes:

    Thanks for having me on.


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08/09/2020

Land In Russia’s Arctic Blows ‘Like a Bottle Of Champagne’

New York Times - Andrew E. Kramer

Since finding the first crater in 2014, Russian scientists have documented 16 more explosions in the Arctic caused by gas trapped in thawing permafrost.

A crater that was discovered in 2014 on the Yamal Peninsula in northern Siberia. Credit...Vladimir Pushkarev/Russian Centre of Arctic Exploration, via Reuters

MOSCOW — A natural phenomenon first observed by scientists just six years ago and now recurring with alarming frequency in Siberia is causing the ground to explode spontaneously and with tremendous force, leaving craters up to 100 feet deep.

When Yevgeny Chuvilin, a Moscow-based geologist with the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, arrived this summer at the rim of the latest blast site, called Crater 17, “it left quite an impression,” he said.

The pit plunged into darkness, surrounded by the table-flat, featureless tundra. As Mr. Chuvilin stood looking in, he said, slabs of dirt and ice occasionally peeled off the permafrost of the crater wall and tumbled in.

“It was making noises. It was like something alive,” Mr. Chuvilin said.

While initially a mystery, scientists have established that the craters appearing in the far north of western Siberia are caused by subterranean gases, and the recent flurry of explosions is possibly related to global warming, Mr. Chuvilin said.

Since the first site was found in 2014, Russian geologists have located 16 more on the Yamal and Gydansk peninsulas, two slender fingers of land stretching into the Arctic Ocean.

Mr. Chuvilin said the conditions causing the explosions, which are still not fully understood, are probably specific to the geology of the area, as similar craters have not appeared elsewhere in Siberia or in permafrost zones in Canada and Alaska that are also affected by global warming.

The explosions occur underneath small hills or hummocks on the tundra where gas from decaying organic matter is trapped underground.

Contained beneath a layer of ice above and permafrost all around, the gas creates pressure that elevates the overlying soil. The explosions occur when the pressure rises or the ice layer thaws and breaks suddenly.

Where the gas comes from is a matter of debate, said Mr. Chuvilin, one of Russia’s leading experts on permafrost, the jumbled layer of soil, ice, prehistoric plants and the occasional frozen mammoth that covers 67 percent of Russia’s land surface. Permafrost also extends under the Arctic Ocean in some place.

The loss of permafrost has transformed the terrain in Yakutia, Russia, leaving an obstacle course of hummocks and craters caused by shifting temperatures underground. Credit...Emile Ducke for The New York Times

“In Russia, we have a lot of experience studying permafrost,” said Mr. Chuvilin, who graduated from the Department of Permafrost at Moscow State University, one of the few universities to have such a specialty.

From this icebox of the Arctic, bits or even whole frozen mammoths, musk ox, woolly rhinoceroses, prehistoric horses, wolves and other ancient beasts wash out from the banks of rivers. But Mr. Chuvilin said he found no animal parts in the debris field of frozen mud the explosions threw out.

The strata of perpetually frozen soil are usually a few hundreds of yards deep, but they go down almost a mile in some places in Siberia. Each summer, a portion near the surface, known as the active layer, thaws.

With warmer summers, the active layer is deepening, potentially melting and weakening the ice over the gas deposits.

The gases causing the explosions, said Mr. Chuvilin, may have built up to their current pressure tens or hundreds of thousands of years ago as the organic components of the permafrost partially decayed, before freezing.

Another possibility is that methane trapped in deeper layers of the permafrost in a crystalline, ice-like form known as methane hydrates is reverting to its gaseous state, possibly because of effects of global warming. In this theory, rising pressure rather than thawing on the surface is causing the gas pockets to burst.

“It goes off like a bottle of champagne,” Mr. Chuvilin said.

The most recent to blow, at Crater 17 site on the Yamal Peninsula, was one of the more dramatic.

A reindeer herder was near enough to hear the blast but was unhurt. The Russian scientific expedition arrived by helicopter about a month later, in August. The crater was at least 100 feet deep.

A road leading to the Bovanenkovo gas field on the Yamal peninsula. The area is still too sparsely populated for the explosions to pose much risk. Credit...Alexander Nemenov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Though the Russian government is encouraging oil, natural gas and mining ventures in the far north, the area is still too sparsely populated for the explosions to pose much risk, Mr. Chuvilin said. 

Reindeer herder communities had passed along tales of such eruptions before 2014, said Mr. Chuvilin, but Soviet and later Russian scientists had not documented any instances in earlier years. They have likely been rare occurrences until recently.

Global warming is heating the Arctic faster than the rest of Earth.

“The permafrost is actually not very permanent, and it never was,” Mr. Chuvilin said.

Within a year or two of erupting, the craters fill with water and appear no more suspicious than small lakes.

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