18/10/2020

(AU) For Australia's Sake, I Hope Trump's Climate Science Denialism Loses

The Guardian - 

US policy has emboldened Scott Morrison to be less ambitious on climate, just when so much is at stake

‘Trump’s rejection of the science of climate change sets the stage for a far greater toll [than from coronavirus]’. Photograph: Paul Kitagaki Jr/ZUMA Wire/REX/Shutterstock

Author
Michael E. Mann is distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University. He is author of the upcoming book The New Climate War: The Fight to Take Back Our Planet, due out in January (Public Affairs Books).
Anyone in Australia who witnessed the Black Summer bushfires (as I did), and anyone in the US who experienced the thick smoke from our western wildfires (as I have), knows how much damage climate change is already doing.

The stark reality is that worldwide efforts to avert ever-more catastrophic climate change impacts lie in the balance in the 2020 US election.

Donald Trump will go down in history bearing substantial responsibility for the deaths of over 200,000 Americans due to his rejection of the advice of public health experts and his refusal to endorse policies such as social distancing and mask-wearing that could have saved many thousands of lives.

But his rejection of the science of climate change sets the stage for a far greater toll. Far more human lives will be lost from the impacts of climate change if we fail to act.

Whether or not Trump gets re-elected – and how other countries like Australia respond to the outcome of the US election – could determine the fate of our planet. Indeed, I’ve stated that a second Trump term might well be “game over for the climate” if it leads to the collapse of international efforts to act.

The damage caused by Trump’s climate denial is painfully visible within the US as we endure climate change-fuelled extreme weather events, including unprecedented wildfires in the west and unprecedented hurricanes in the east.

But the damage can be felt around the world. Trump has proudly, and shamelessly, trumpeted his climate denialism on the global stage, joining with petrostates such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and Brazil in opposing international climate efforts.

Indeed, Trump’s actions have emboldened Australia to be less ambitious on climate too, prime minister Scott Morrison following Trump’s lead in promoting climate denial, coddling fossil fuel interests and blocking efforts to support a clean, renewable energy transition.

By pulling the US out of the Paris agreement (one of the first and only campaign promises he kept) Trump ceded America’s leadership on the defining challenge of our time. Thus far, other countries have fortunately filled the leadership void, at least temporarily.

The EU and China, with its new net-zero pledge, have stepped up to the plate, recognising that they will benefit from the opportunities of a clean energy economy and better protect their citizens from dangerous climate change impacts.

But nobody stands to benefit more from climate action, or lose more if we fail to act, than Australia. Having spent a sabbatical leave down under earlier this year, aimed at collaborating with scientists in Australia to study the impact of climate change on extreme weather events, I instead witnessed those impacts first-hand.

I saw the muted beauty of the Blue Mountains when shrouded in wildfire smoke. If Trump is re-elected, and we collectively continue down a path of insufficient climate action, it may not be long before those fires rage year-round, and the Blue Mountains are lost in a perpetual grey and dismal haze.

It’s the same with the vibrant sea life of the Great Barrier Reef, which I was fortunate enough to witness with my family during my time in Australia. The delicate ecosystems of the GBR are already on the ropes, with fossil fuels pushing up temperatures in the ocean to the point where bleachings occur with such frequency and ferocity that corals simply cannot recover.

Research released this week found that the reef has lost half its coral, largely due to warming oceans caused by climate change. Add the impact of ocean acidification from increasing carbon emissions, and we could sadly, within a decade or two, be reading the GBR’s obituary for real.

It doesn’t have to be like that. For one thing, renewable energy costs are plummeting while the technology just keeps getting more efficient and better, so dirty energy no longer makes economic sense.

For example, on one recent Sunday, all the electricity demand for the entire state of South Australia was met by solar power alone, and every state and territory in Australia has committed to go carbon neutral by 2050.

Here in the US, we’ve seen a record number of cities and states stepping up on climate goals too, knowing clean energy is good for their communities’ health, resilience and prosperity.

Policymakers must accelerate the shift to clean energy that is already under way. As we’ve learned in the Trump-era, some fossil fuels are too far gone for even the most determined polluter-in-chief to save.

Though another term would give Trump time to defend his environmental rollbacks in court and solidify his dirty energy policies, he has already failed to save coal from market forces, and another four years isn’t going to reverse the long-term decline of the industry.

This is a cautionary tale for Australia. In both the US and Australia, conservative politicians seem more eager to bail out dirty polluters than protect the public, denying politically inconvenient science in order to offer lavish payouts to help unprofitable fossil fuel companies.

If we are to avert catastrophic warming, we must do just the opposite, providing financial incentives for renewables and disincentives for fossil fuels. That will level the playing field, and accelerate the clean energy transition.

We must take the earliest exit possible off the fossil fuel highway. By trying to squeeze out the last drop of fossil fuel industry profits, the Morrison government could well be on its way to bleaching the life from Australia’s coral reefs and blighting the blue of its mountains.

There is some good news, however. Regardless of whom Americans vote for – and for the sake of the planet, I hope it’s Joe Biden and the Democrats – Australians can still work together for structural change at home.

You can’t solve it alone, but we also can’t solve it without you. Australia has seen that the sun can power an entire state’s electricity for a day. Now it’s time to make that happen every day.

Australia must distance itself from the handful of bad petrostate actors who have sabotaged global climate action and rejoin the coalition of the willing, when it comes to the battle to save our planet.

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These Are The Ways You Can Stop Climate Change, According To David Attenborough

 Lifehacker - Lauren Rouse





David Attenborough’s latest documentary is a stark reminder that a global pandemic isn’t the only thing going on right now. David Attenborough: A Life On Our Planet is the culmination of a 60-year career for Attenborough. It is also his witness statement for the environment and the effects of climate change.


David Attenborough: A Life on Our Planet | Official Trailer | Netflix

To be honest, A Life On Our Planet can get downright depressing at times. Thanks to humans, there is only 35% of the world’s natural wilderness left, which has been destroyed to make room for the 7.5 billion people currently on Earth. When Attenborough began his career it was 66%. That’s half of the world’s natural spaces destroyed in 80 years.

Attenborough then gives some terrifying predictions. In 2030, if deforestation of the Amazon rainforest continues, it will degrade to the point of becoming a dry savanna, which will alter the global water cycle. By 2100 the planet will be 4 degrees Celsius warmer, by which time we will apparently be enduring the sixth mass extinction event. Yeah, not good.

You’re probably thinking, ‘but what can I do?’ and the good news is that Attenborough includes some solutions in A Life On Our Planet that could stop the climate change. There are things we can all do to help and Attenborough even has a personal message to Aussies, to tell us how: Curbing the rising population

At the rate that the population is currently growing, by 2100 Earth is set to be home to 11 billion people. To slow this growth, Attenborough believes that improving access to healthcare and enabling young children, particularly girls, to complete an education at school is vital.

The idea is that with better education, women worldwide will marry later and have fewer children whilst still having access to better careers and economic prospects. Stay in school, kids.

Moving to renewable energy sources

The renewable energy idea has been around for a while but is now more urgent than ever. The fact is fossil fuels won’t last forever, but solar, wind, and hydropower can be sourced naturally and endlessly. Attenborough gives the example of Morocco, which once relied on imported gas and oil for all its energy, but now the city generates 40% of its power from its own solar farm.

This is something that needs to be taken up by bigger companies, but we at home also have the chance to make a difference by reducing our power use and switching to green energy providers.

Rewilding our planet

Restoring biodiversity to areas we have destroyed is crucial. For example, fish stocks in our oceans are rapidly depleting. We over-fish our oceans to the point that the remaining fish have no time to breed. But by supporting the implementation of no-fish zones we give fish the chance to repopulate the oceans. Choosing to buy sustainably caught fish is another way to support ocean ecosystems worldwide.

Switching to a plant-based diet

Farming space is another big one. Attenborough says that if we all switched to a largely plant-based diet we would only need half the current farming land. Many people are overwhelmed by the idea of switching cold turkey to a vegan or vegetarian diet. But it can be something simple, like cutting down to 2-3 portions of meat a week, that makes a difference.

Australia’s sugar crops are a big part of the reason the Great Barrier Reef is degrading. Looking for the ‘Bonsucro’ logo when buying items containing sugar can help to support responsibly grown sugar cane. Similarly, looking for palm oil-free or sustainable palm oil products will help keep to keep the homes of cute orangutans safe.

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(AU) BOM Pivots To Security Over Climate Risks

Canberra Times - Rebecca Gredley AAP

The Bureau of Meteorology is now part of a group sharing weather information focusing on security.

National security risks sparked by climate change have prompted Australia's weather agency to forge ties with the Five Eyes intelligence alliance.

The Bureau of Meteorology is now part of an international group sharing weather information with an impact on national security.

The alliance includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.

In its latest annual report, BOM director Andrew Johnson says its relationship with Defence has deepened at all levels.

"The bureau is now supporting strategic decision-makers in key national security departments via a quarterly global seasonal outlook which identifies the potential impacts of adverse weather and climate on food security, refugee migration or conflict events," Dr Johnson said.

"This information supports decision-makers to take appropriate interventions or be cued to national security concerns much earlier."

The annual report highlights last year was the warmest and driest on record since consistent records began in 1910.

A summary of key weather events through the year is a stark reminder of the extreme bushfires, flooding, tropical cyclones, hail and dust storms Australians have endured.

Between July and December, more than five million hectares burned across Australia, with at least 18 lives lost and more than 1600 homes destroyed.

Most of the country experienced extreme heatwaves towards the end of December, resulting in increased ambulance call outs.

December 18 was the hottest day on record on average across the nation.

The annual report also notes a severe hailstorm that hit Canberra in January, and severe thunderstorms in Melbourne, resulted in more than $500 million of insurance claims.

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17/10/2020

(AU) China's Power Game Puts The Pressure On Australian Coal

Sydney Morning Herald - Cheryl Durrant

Author
Cheryl Durrant is a climate councillor and former director of preparedness and mobilisation at the Australian Department of Defence.
With China committing to reach net zero emissions before 2060, a timeline and a plan has been set for the curtain call on fossil fuels.

As China is the largest carbon dioxide emitter and the largest fossil fuel importer, its actions reverberate globally. And with the China-Australia relationship at a low-ebb it looks like Australia’s thermal and coking coal exports to China could be taking an early hit.

China’s recent announcements are not surprising. While the eye of the world has been on COVID-19, China has experienced some of its worst flooding in recent decades, affecting more than 60 million people, disrupting food supply, and testing the limits of the giant Three Gorges Dam. China gets the existential nature of climate change risks.

A worker monitors the coal dumping process at the Caofeidian Port in Hebei Province. Credit: Sanghee Liu

The timing of this announcement shows that China grasps the opportunity of climate diplomacy. A recent Pew poll shows that many countries hold record unfavourable views towards China.

Notwithstanding Australian and other nations’ valid concerns about the nature of Xi Jinping’s China and its ability to deliver on its net zero pledge, it makes sense for China to attempt to regain some lost ground ahead of a possible Biden victory in the upcoming American elections.

Reported curbs on Australian coal imports to China might fit in with this diplomatic narrative. While it’s uncertain what is behind the ban or whether it extends to both thermal and coking coal, the timing certainly sends a signal to Australia.

Whether this signal becomes an enduring trend will need to be closely monitored. Initial modelling of the impact of China’s transition to renewables suggests it will benefit economically from a clean energy shift. China’s shift to net zero emissions could also accelerate the take up of green industries and technologies worldwide, such as green steel, electric or hydrogen vehicles powered by renewables.

It does this by creating a much bigger market for these technologies, much sooner. In Defence we used to say “in warfare, mass has a quality all of its own”. What China’s shift does is create a massive future market for green industries, driving price down and accelerating current trends, increasingly making renewable and green industries a cost-effective choice. Of course, whether China can accelerate action to match its words is another thing.

Countries like Australia, whose economy is tightly coupled to fossil fuels should anticipate economic shocks ahead unless we move swiftly to diversify our economy and embrace our potential as a clean energy exporter.

Not only is Australia heavily reliant on fossil fuels now, as a percentage of overall exports, but if the government’s rhetoric is to be believed we are about to embark on substantial taxpayer funded fossil fuel infrastructure investments, in particular gas. Given global energy trends, it’s difficult to see how this makes domestic prices cheaper, or the value of Australian exports higher.

If China does follow through with decisive action this creates a double whammy for Australia’s energy security – not just hitting our future economy but also isolating us internationally. Both the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade White Paper and Defence’s recent Strategic Update flag China’s rising influence in the Pacific and the need for Australia to work harder to maintain its standing in a region where many countries face extreme climate risks.

The Pacific has long recognised climate change as the single greatest threat to its security and wellbeing and grown more and more impatient with Australia’s recalcitrance. With Europe and China onboard with a mid-century net zero target and with Europe’s clean COVID-19 recovery, Australia’s “gas led recovery” now looks to be swimming against the tide of international sentiment. A Biden election win in the United States would entrench Australia further in a group of carbon polluting powers, alongside Russia and Saudi Arabia.

This is where environmental, economic and traditional security strategies come together in the national and the global interest. With a net zero target China achieves reduction in its environmental risks, gains potential economic advantage, and builds global influence from its current low point. It also opens the door on enhanced global collaboration on climate change, should Biden succeed in the US Presidential election.

This global collaboration is urgently needed to avoid tipping the planet into a Hothouse Earth trajectory, which threatens global civilisation itself. China’s policy has “strategic coherence” and a long-term goal.

In contrast Morrison’s Australia, and Trump’s America have three-word slogans and a lot of misplaced optimism.

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Old King Coal Has Surrendered To Solar, Says Global Power Report

Sydney Morning Herald - Nick O'Malley

Solar power has been declared "the new king of electricity" by the International Energy Agency in its annual energy outlook report, which finds it is already cheaper than power generated by new coal and gas developments in most countries and is providing, "some of the lowest-cost electricity ever seen".

For the first time since the industrial revolution, coal-fired power will constitute less than 20 per cent of the world's energy by 2040, according to one scenario in the report, which found the end of the coal era has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report has major implications for the Australian government, with Tim Buckley of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis saying it was hugely significant that the IEA was now predicting that coal was in structural decline in all of its modelled scenarios, as in previous years in some scenarios it predicted that coal demand would have continued growth at lower rates.

“It deprives Australian state and federal governments of a crutch. They have relied on the IEA modelling in the past to say there was evidence of continued growth, so has the industry,” he said.

Moree solar farm in NSW.

This year global greenhouse gas emissions will fall by 7 per cent to 33.4 gigatonnes according to the 2020 World Energy Outlook, but the agency warns that the economic slump cannot be viewed as a solution to climate change. Unless nations adopt green economic recovery policies emissions will quickly rise in the recovery, it says.

"The economic downturn has temporarily suppressed emissions, but low economic growth is not a low-emissions strategy – it is a strategy that would only serve to further impoverish the world’s most vulnerable populations,” said IEA chief Dr Fatih Birol.

Instead, governments should adopt policies to drive down emissions.

The report models four possible scenarios of recovery and energy use, ranging from one in which governments adopt policies to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 to one in which governments respond with their already stated policies. In this scenario greenhouse gas emissions bounce back to pre-COVID levels by 2023.

All the scenarios predict that coal’s peak use has already passed and cast renewables as taking "starring roles".

"I see solar becoming the new king of the world’s electricity markets. Based on today’s policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022," said Dr Birol.

"If governments and investors step up their clean energy efforts in line with our sustainable development scenario, the growth of both solar and wind would be even more spectacular – and hugely encouraging for overcoming the world’s climate challenge."

The report predicts peak oil demand will hit in the coming decade, but unless governments shift policies that support its use it could plateau for years after that.

Gas demand is expected to rise in Asia over coming years under one scenario as governments use it to replace coal energy plants, but for the first time the agency is predicting that gas demand will begin to decline by 2040.

Gas’s environmental credentials will be challenged by new technologies demonstrating that methane “fugitive emissions” associated with gas are causing significant harm to the climate, it says.

Professor Paul Dastoor from the University of Newcastle talks about the first public display of printed solar panels at Lane Cove.


Professor Paul Dastoor from the University of Newcastle talks about the first public display of printed solar panels at Lane Cove.

"An uncertain economic recovery also raises questions about the future prospects of the record amount of new liquefied natural gas export facilities approved in 2019," the report says.

"Investors are looking with increased scepticism at oil and gas projects due to concerns about financial performance and the compatibility of company strategies with environmental goals."

Mr Buckley said the IEA’s acknowledgement of the climate impact methane emissions related to the gas industry have was also a signal of future uncertainty for the industry, though he said he did not believe it would prompt the government to reconsider its support for a gas-led recovery.

Director of the Grattan Institute’s energy program Tony Wood said it would be difficult for Australia to dismiss the IEA’s modelling because it is one of the agency's most long-standing and active members.

Kingsmill Bond, an energy analyst with Carbon Tracker, a finance and climate change think tank in London, welcomed the recognition that the world began to hit fossil fuel peaks in 2019, but said he believed it underplayed how far and fast solar costs would continue to fall.

"The IEA is forecasting a massive slow-down in the rate of fall of solar costs. Costs have been falling at 18 per cent a year since 2010," he said. "The [report] expects that the rate of cost falls reduces to just 2 per cent a year in the period to 2040. This is simply not credible."

Mr Bond also said he believed solar would continue to expand at a faster rate than that predicted by the agency's business-as-usual scenario.

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Climate Change Poses 'Profound Threat' To Global Growth - IMF Chief

Reuters - Andrea Shalal

WASHINGTON - Climate change poses a serious threat to global growth, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Monday, urging the world’s top emitters to agree on a floor for carbon prices.

FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva makes remarks during the IMF and World Bank's 2019 Annual Meetings of finance ministers and bank governors, in Washington, U.S., October 19, 2019. REUTERS/Mike Theiler

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told finance ministers meeting on climate change that countries should also ensure that green investments are included in the money they are spending to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigate its economic impact.

Doing so, she said, could boost global gross domestic product by 0.7% on average in the first 15 years of the recovery.

“Even while we are in the midst of the COVID crisis, we should mobilize to prevent the climate crisis,” Georgieva told a meeting of finance ministers from 52 countries working to integrate climate change into their economic policies.

The group, launched in April 2019 and led by the finance ministers of Chile and Finland, met virtually Monday on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

China and the United States, the world’s largest emitters of heat-trapping gases, are not part of the coalition. Together they account for 43% of the world’s emissions.

“The evidence is clear: Climate change is a profound threat to growth and prosperity. It is macro-critical. And macroeconomic policies are central to the fight against climate change,” she said.

Georgieva said IMF research showed that policy tools could help achieve net zero emissions by 2050 despite the pandemic, but it was imperative that countries earmarked some of the $12 trillion in fiscal stimulus toward green investments.

Carbon pricing should be at the heart of the strategy, she said, adding, “It is critical to get the implementation right, including to shield vulnerable people and sectors to ensure a just transition.”

Voicing concern that the current Paris framework would not deliver the needed 25% to 50% reduction of emissions over the next decade, Georgieva called on top emitters to adopt a carbon price floor, which could pave the way for a global consensus.

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16/10/2020

Restoring Farmland Could Drastically Slow Extinctions, Fight Climate Change

New York Times - Catrin Einhorn

Returning strategic parts of the world’s farmlands to nature could help mitigate both climate change and biodiversity loss, a new study found.

A red-fronted brown lemur in the Kirindy forest reserve near Morondava, Madagascar. Scientists said that restoring a portion of agricultural land to a wild state would not only help reduce extinctions but aid in the fight against global warming. Credit...Baz Ratner/Reuters



The twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss are intertwined: Storms and wildfires are worsening while as many as one million species are at risk of extinction.

The solutions are not small or easy, but they exist, scientists say.

A global road map, published Wednesday in Nature, identifies a path to soaking up almost half of the carbon dioxide that has built up since the Industrial Revolution and averting more than 70 percent of the predicted animal and plant extinctions on land.

The key? Returning a strategic 30 percent of the world’s farmlands to nature.

It could be done, the researchers found, while preserving an abundant food supply for people and while also staying within the time scale to keep global temperatures from rising past 2 degrees Celsius, the upper target of the Paris Agreement.

“It’s one of the most cost effective ways of combating climate change,” said Bernardo B.N. Strassburg, one of the study’s authors and an environmental scientist with Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro and the International Institute for Sustainability. “And it’s one of the most important ways of avoiding global extinctions.”

The researchers used a map from the European Space Agency that breaks down the surface of the planet into a grid of parcels classified by ecosystem: forests, wetlands, shrub lands, grasslands and arid regions.

Using an algorithm they developed, the scientists evaluated which swaths, if returned to their natural states, would yield the highest returns for mitigating climate change and biodiversity loss at the lowest cost.

It was not enough simply to lay one result on top of the other. “If you really want to optimize for all three things at the same time,” Dr. Strassburg said, “that leads to a different map.”

A similar and complementary tool, The Global Safety Net, was released last month. It identifies the most strategic 50 percent of the planet to protect, filtering for rare species, high biodiversity, large mammal landscapes, intact wilderness and climate stabilization.

A growing number of campaigns seek to address the world’s environmental emergency by conserving or restoring vast swaths of the planet. The Bonn Challenge aims to restore 350 million hectares by 2030. The Campaign for Nature is pushing leaders to protect 30 percent of the planet by 2030.

Credit...Wahyudi/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images


In the latest study, the scientists found that benefits rise and fall depending on how much land is restored.

Relinquishing 15 percent of strategic farmlands, for example, could spare 60 percent of extinctions and sequester about 30 percent of the built up carbon in the atmosphere.

The authors estimate that at the global level, 55 percent of farmland could be returned to nature while maintaining current levels of food production by using existing agricultural land more effectively and sustainably.

“It’s really impressive,” said J. Leighton Reid, a specialist in ecological restoration at Virginia Tech who was not involved in the study. “The authors do a good job of acknowledging some of the limitations of the work at the same time as they’re proposing this big vision.”

The biggest challenges appear to be political will and finding the money to pay farmers to restore so much land to nature. But the authors point to the hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars per year that subsidize fossil fuels and unsustainable farming practices.

“There’s a lot of money available for investment,” said Robin Chazdon, a longtime biologist with the University of Connecticut and one of the study’s authors. “The world is invested in destruction.”

The study was requested by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, a global treaty that aims to preserve biodiversity. One of the authors, David Cooper, is its deputy executive secretary.

A recent report by the convention showed that world leaders had failed to meet their last round of targets. The United States is the only state in the world, with the exception of the Vatican, that has not signed the treaty.

The study will be used to help inform global commitments at the United Nations biodiversity and climate conventions next year. But because the new study highlights nature’s disregard for national borders, it presents a diplomatic challenge.

“This lays out the much higher benefits overall if you ignore the country boundaries and just look at where these priorities are,” said Dr. Chazdon.

The most strategic places are distributed very unevenly; tropical forests and wetlands, for example, hold outsized potential for carbon storage and biodiversity protection.

“Do we say, ‘We’re just going to forego all those benefits and be provincial about this?’” she asked. “Or are there ways to cooperate internationally?”

The authors note that the conservation of existing wilderness remains the most important way to protect biodiversity, and see their proposed restoration as a critical addition.

Other essential steps Dr. Strassburg listed: Stopping the use of fossil fuels; reducing food, energy and plastic waste; and making sustainable choices when buying things like food, cars and clothes.

“Once consumers start changing their patterns,” he said, “companies react really quickly.”

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