03/12/2020

(AU) Pacific Leaders Condemn Australia's Climate Target As 'One Of The Weakest' In Open Letter

SBS - Tom Stayner

In an open letter to Scott Morrison, Pacific Island leaders have urged Australia to implement a range of changes to its 'weak' climate policies and targets.

Pacific Island leaders have written an open letter urging Prime Minister Scott Morrison to take stronger action on climate change. Source: AAP

Pacific Island leaders have written an open letter urging Prime Minister Scott Morrison to take stronger action on climate change, warning Australia is failing to take enough leadership initiative in addressing the global challenge. 

A total of 15 Pacific leaders, including former prime ministers and presidents, condemned Australia's emissions reduction target as "one of the weakest amongst wealthy nations".  

They called on Australia to increase the ambition of its commitments to responding to climate change ahead of the international United Nations Climate Ambitions Summit on 12 December.

Former Kiribati President Anote Tong. AAP

Former President of Kiribati Anote Tong told SBS News that Australia must review its commitment to tackling climate change, or risk failing to take leadership against the "existential threat". 

"What we’ve always been hoping to happen is to have Australia take greater leadership from our part of the world to try and influence the global agenda on climate change," he told SBS News. 

"Right now Australia is lagging behind."

In their letter, the Pacific leaders recommended Australia follow international allies in committing to a net-zero emissions target by 2050 and develop a long-term strategy to lower greenhouse emissions by 2021. 

They also want the Australian government to rule out using "carry-over credits" to achieve existing climate targets, casting doubt over the legal and moral justification for embracing the method.

They warned that homelands and cultures in the Pacific are facing "certain devastation" from climate change, and that the challenge remains the region's greatest security threat. 

"Pacific Island nations have long been leaders in driving global progress to combat climate change," the letter reads.

"However, Australia’s current Paris Agreement emission reduction target remains one of the weakest amongst wealthy nations."

The United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, South Korea and the incoming administration of US president-elect Joe Biden have committed to a net-zero emissions target by 2050.

The Australian government has resisted adopting the goal, with Mr Morrison instead saying he wants to reach the target as quickly as possible through a technology-driven approach. 

A spokesperson for the Australian government said it is a steadfast partner in building climate change and disaster resilience in the Pacific.

"Australia is committed to reaching net zero emissions as soon as possible, and focused on driving down the costs of key technologies to achieve this global goal," the spokesperson said. 

"We are committed to the goals of the Paris Agreement. Our targets are meaningful and ambitious and we implement action to achieve them."

Former Prime Minister of Tuvalu Enele Sopoaga told SBS News he has been disconcerted and disappointed by Australia's response to the global challenge. 

"Right now I am very very concerned that there are no clear actions, or commitment to actions, coming out of Australia," he told SBS News. 

"It is a feeling of betrayal and also it is a sense of seeing the denial by Australia of the seriousness of climate change and its catastrophic impacts.

"This is an existential threat to the security and survival of Pacific Island countries."

Tuvalu's Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga addresses the Pacific Islands Forum in Funafuti. AAP
Pacific Island nations have long urged Australia to take a stronger leadership in combating the global challenge, fearing they are most at risk of its potential devastating impacts.  

But at last year’s Pacific Islands forum, Fiji’s prime minister Frank Bainimarama accused Australia of lacking commitment to the cause.

"We cannot allow climate commitments to be watered down at a meeting hosted in a nation whose very existence is threatened by the rising waters lapping at its shores," he said.

This included reports Mr Morrison had resisted including references to coal and reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 in the final communique of the forum.

Mr Tong said Australia should reconsider its approach to climate change in line with the ambition foreshadowed by Mr Biden, who has said he plans to be a global leader on the issue.

"If the science is saying that things are going to get worse ... the Australian government needs to review its policy on climate change," he said. 

"Particularly when Australia knows very well the implications of what happens in Australia [and] to neighbouring Pacific island countries."

The federal government's current goal is for a 26 to 28 per cent reduction on 2005 emissions levels by 2030.

It has reduced the nation's total emissions by 16.6 per cent since 2005, according to government data. 

But Australia has faced international pressure over its intention to use Kyoto carryover credits in order to meet its commitments under the Paris agreement.

This involves claiming credit for exceeding emissions targets under the previous climate agreement.  

Mr Morrison last month said the government only intended to use them to the extent it is required, and that ideally "we will not need them".

The Prime Minister has long touted the importance of ties to the region, committing to a "Pacific Step-up" campaign including assisting them in addressing climate concerns. 

Amid the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia has committed some $300 million to assist with economic and social recovery in the Pacific region. 

It has also pledged $80 million to the COVAX global alliance, designed to help distribute a vaccine to help countries less capable of accessing the health resources. 

Mr Tong said the Black Summer of bushfires in Australia should have also reaffirmed the need for strong action to limit the effects of climate change.

"It is a clear message that Australia is not immune to the effects of climate change and the leadership needs to take action on this," he said.

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(AU) Australia Endures Hottest Spring Ever, With Temperatures More Than 2C Above Average

The Guardian - 

Maximum heat in November was average of 2.9C above long-term mean, despite a La Niña event, which typically brings cooler patterns

Clouds over Sydney after heatwave
Clouds over Sydney’s skyline as a cool change moves in after two successive days of temperatures above 40C. Australia broke numerous records for heat in spring 2020, despite the La Niña climate event. Photograph: Jenny Evans/Getty Images

Australia has sweltered through its hottest spring and November on record, with both the season and the month more than 2C (3.6F) warmer than the long-term average.

Temperatures in spring were 2.03C hotter than average across night and day. In November, they were 2.47C above the long-term mean, which is measured across the years 1961-90.

Maximum heat in November went even further beyond what Australians are used to, on average reaching 2.9C above the historic mark. The previous record average was 2.4C above the long-term mark, set in November 2014.

Large areas in the east and south-east experienced maximums more than 10C above average on a number of days late in the month, with many weather stations in New South Wales breaking their record for the hottest day and night on 28 or 29 November.

Australian spring mean temperature anomaly (1910-2020). Illustration: Bureau of Meteorology


The rise in heatwaves is consistent with a recent state of the climate report by the Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), which said Australia had entered a new era of sustained extreme weather events linked to increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide.

Dr Andrew Watkins, the bureau’s head of climate operations, said the record-breaking temperatures were particularly remarkable as they had been recorded during a La Niña, a climate event in the Pacific Ocean that typically brings cooler and wetter weather.

“As a climatologist, it is really not what you would expect during a La Niña,” he said.

Watkins said the heat spike in November could partly be explained by the La Niña temporarily weakening, tropical rainfall patterns being “stuck” in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and a weakening of the southern annular mode, which moved weather systems northwards. Together, they reduced cloud cover and contributed to higher air pressure and lower rainfall than expected during a La Niña.

These changes occurred against a backdrop of climate change. Australia has on average warmed by 1.44C since 1910, and a La Niña year was now as warm as an El Niño year was in the last century, Watkins said.

The records in the most recent climate data include new highs for minimum night-time temperatures across the continent: 1.91C above average for spring and 2.04C for November.

The extraordinary heat last weekend broke heat records for November in South Australia, Victoria and NSW. Smithville, in north-west NSW, reached 46.9C, Andamooka, in the far north of South Australia, hit 48C and Ouyen in Victoria equalled the previous high for the month of 45.8C.

The only national measurement not to set a new record was for the average maximum temperatures in spring. It was the fifth hottest recorded, 2.15C above the long-term benchmark.

Australian November mean temperature anomaly (1910-2020). Photograph: BOM

Temperatures in Western Australia in November were also an exception. The average maximum temperature in the state’s south-west was cooler than average.

Rainfall in spring was slightly below average across much of the continent, though not as low as the incredibly dry spring last year, which set the scene for the worst bushfires on record over spring and summer.

Total rainfall was 8% below average, and notably down in significant parts of Queensland, north-east NSW and western Tasmania. It was above average in the Kimberley and Pilbara in Western Australia, much of South Australia, western NSW and far south-west Queensland.

Despite the extreme heat in spring, Watkins said summer was expected to be more benign on average than the past couple of years. A strengthened La Niña was likely to bring warm muggy nights and increase the likelihood of tropical cyclones, but daytime temperatures were likely to be lower than last summer, he said.

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(AU) World Awaits Action By 'Suicidal' Australia, Says Former Climate Chief

Sydney Morning Herald - Nick O'Malley

The world is waiting for a " suicidal" Australia to reverse its stance on climate change, says one of the world's most senior diplomats.

Christiana Figueres, who was executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change through the Paris Agreement talks, said the world expected more from Australia in the lead-up to the so-called COP26 climate talks to be held in Glasgow next November.

Former UN executive secretary for climate change, Christiana Figueres. Credit: Dominic Lorrimer

"The climate wars that have been going on in Australia for over a decade now are just – honestly they are such a suicidal situation because Australia... holds such promise with renewable energy," she told John Connor, chief executive of the Carbon Market Institute, in a conversation recorded for the Australasian Emissions Reductions Summit, which begins online on Wednesday.

"There is no other country that has as much sun potential as Australia," said Ms Figueres, who is now the director of the global climate movement Mission 2020.

"I've been pretty vocal about my frustration for so many years of a completely unstable, volatile, unpredictable stand and position on climate change in Australia."

She likened the possibility that Australia might use what the government calls carry-over credits from the Kyoto agreement to using points scored in one sporting match towards the results of another.

"It is just a total lack of integrity and not something that does Australia proud," she said.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has pledged to work closely with the US President-Elect Joe Biden on key issues such as climate change.

Last month Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that he believed Australia may be able to reach Paris targets without relying on Kyoto credits.

In a second conversation for the conference, United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment chief executive Fiona Reynolds said anyone who failed to accept that climate sustainability had now moved into the mainstream and was being embedded in financial regulations would soon be left behind.

She said that soon it would not be enough to ask individual companies to set net-zero targets, because investors were now demanding such targets across their whole portfolios.

She predicted that the next frontier in investing would be in so-called negative emissions technologies and practices, which reduce the amount of greenhouse gas already in the atmosphere.

Climate solutions based on avoiding deforestation and other "viable near-term opportunities" in removing carbon could generate $US800 billion in revenues by 2050 and assets valued at well over $US1.2 trillion, more than the current value of the major oil and gas companies.

The conference is being held in the lead-up to a December 12 United Nations meeting in which national governments will be invited to present more ambitious climate plans – including COVID-19 recovery plans – designed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees celsius.

Others to address the first day of the conference on Wednesday include Alok Sharma, president of COP26 and British Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Jim Skea of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as Australian business leaders Shayne Elliott from ANZ and Mike Cannon-Brookes of Atlassian.

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02/12/2020

The Ministry For The Future: A Novel By Kim Stanley Robinson

 Yale Climate Connections - 

Readers will develop a better understanding of the puzzle humanity must confront to meet challenges of climate change.

Kim Stanley Robinson inset photo: Gage Skidmore
Author
Michael Svoboda Ph.D. is an Asst. Professor of Writing in the University Writing Program at George Washington University. In his writing classes he alternates between the related themes of communicating climate change and political psychology.
In The Ministry for the Future, his twentieth novel, science fiction author Kim Stanley Robinson creates something truly remarkable: a credible, very-near future in which humans effectively solve the problem of climate change.

Climate lukewarmers may be tempted to interpret this upbeat summary as support for their technological optimism. That would be a mistake. Though it ends well, the story Robinson tells is harrowing.

That story starts in January 2025 in Bogota, Colombia, at the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Frustrated by their failure to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, representatives of the 189 ratifying countries form a new sub-agency “to advocate for the world’s future generations of citizens” and “to defend all living creatures present and future who cannot speak for themselves.” Although it is given a large budget for a UN agency, The Ministry for the Future, as it comes to be known, can achieve these lofty objectives only by leveraging its influence.

Just six months later a heat wave strikes Uttar Pradesh, the state along India’s border with Nepal. Not an uncommon occurrence. This time, however, instead of tempering after a few weeks, the wave intensifies. Night brings no relief. A young American aid worker, Frank May, does what he can to help, inviting his neighbors into his air-conditioned offices to cool themselves. Then the power goes out. Then the agency’s generator and window units are stolen by a gang of armed young men who curse Frank for the West’s pillaging of their country and of the planet’s climate.

The only way to cool off now is a plunge into the lake at the edge of town. By immersing themselves in its waters, they hope, they can escape the pulsing heat of the air. Instead the water feels like a hot bath. But having stepped into it, they now feel too weak and too muddled to step out.

The heat wave kills millions – in a fortnight. (If that seems incredible, consider that the temperature and humidity levels Robinson imagines are only modestly worse than the levels India actually experienced in 2019.) The 1.3 billion Indians who survive to witness this climatic atrocity are shaken – and outraged.

Robinson has long made a point of expanding the political geography of science fiction and cli-fi. The Arab world played a key role in his Mars trilogy. Nepal and Bangladesh provided political counterpoints in his Science in the Capital trilogy. And China shared the top billing with the United States in Robinson’s 2018 novel Red Moon. In Ministry, India has its turn.

The heatwave sparks a political upheaval, forcing old parties out of power and western corporations out of the country. India decides to conduct a geoengineering exercise to reduce the amount of sunlight heating the subcontinent, an operation its military carries out proudly and publicly. In secret, however, another group of Indians seeks to avenge the deaths of their innocent compatriots and to change the calculus of global capitalism. The eager recruits of the Children of Kali, a group named after Hinduism’s goddess of death and destruction, become the world’s newest, and most determined, eco-terrorists.

In Robinson’s  new ‘Ministry’ novel, different chains of choices point humanity in new directions … and ultimately to health and happiness.

In Zurich, Mary Murphy, the Irish ex-diplomat who runs the Ministry, looks for ways to shape and direct the instabilities created by India’s public and covert actions. Now, on page 27 of this 563-page book, the real plot begins, a plot that entwines the lives of the Irish director of the Ministry and the traumatized American aid worker who survived the Indian heat wave.

No one event or action changes the world in this novel, not even the deaths of millions; rather it is the different sequences of choices that nudge humans, individually and collectively, in new directions. The first choices force the next choices. The Ministry succeeds when it finds subtle ways to tip the scales toward the more sustainable options.

Robinson’s account of these decades of change resembles the selective public memory of the civil rights era, in which the non-violent protests of Martin Luther King, Jr., and the kindred groups around him take center stage while black power organizations and activists, like Malcolm X, are usually consigned to the margins.

In The Ministry for the Future, acts of eco-terrorism are clearly major drivers of the changes that first slow and then halt the centuries-long rise in greenhouse gas emissions, but Robinson keeps these actors offstage. The results of their actions – bombed power plants, downed jetliners, infected CAFOs – are reported third hand, in brief summaries of newscasts. Although each of these daring actions could be the plot of a thriller, Robinson does not spin out their stories, likely because he does not want to valorize violence even when it’s clearly necessary to his plot.

For reasons that are less clear, the protagonists, too, are often kept at a distance, presented in abbreviated form in minutes from meetings or in surveillance reports.

And then there are the digressions. Many of the book’s 106 chapters are devoted to such technical topics as the history of central banking, modern monetary theory, the Gini index, blockchain technology, Mondragon, carbon taxes, clean energy technologies, Jevon’s Paradox, different forms of geoengineering, population biology, and wildlife corridors.

With these many different pieces, Robinson assembles a Rube Goldbergian machine for social change that ultimately delivers the goods: a more equitable social economy and a more stable climate, one in which CO2 levels are actually falling from the peak level (478 ppm) reached in the 2040s. The Ministry finally achieves its goals when complex, interconnected social and economic processes are repurposed to direct power and money away from the production of fossil fuels, away the conspicuous consumption – and waste – of other goods, and toward health, human interconnection, and happiness.

The Ministry for the Future, then, is both an optimistic and a difficult work. Morally difficult for the role it envisions for violence, and sometimes a slow read for the many complex topics that must be explained along the way. But precisely because of the extra effort required, readers will finish Ministry with a clearer view of the big picture and a much better understanding of the many different pieces humanity must puzzle together to meet the challenge of climate change.

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European States Ordered To Respond To Youth Activists' Climate Lawsuit

The Guardian - 

European court of human rights case could result in countries being bound to take greater action

A firefighter tries to extinguish flames in Leiria, Portugal, during the 2017 wildfires. Four of the youth applicants are from Leiria, one of the worst-hit areas. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The European court of human rights has ordered 33 European governments to respond to a landmark climate lawsuit lodged by six youth campaigners, the Guardian has learned.

The plaintiffs’ British barrister says it could be the most important case ever tried by the Strasbourg-based judges.

In a sign of the urgency of the climate crisis, the court will announce on Monday that it has green-lighted the crowdfunded case, which was filed two months ago. It has already confirmed it will be treated as a priority, which means the process will be fast-tracked.

The states – the EU27 plus Norway, Russia, Switzerland, the UK, Turkey and Ukraine – are obliged to respond by 23 February to the complaints of the plaintiffs, who say governments are moving too slowly to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are destabilising the climate.

If the defendant countries fail to convince the Strasbourg-based judges, lawyers say they will be legally bound to take more ambitious steps and to address the contribution they – and multinational companies headquartered in their jurisdictions – make to overseas emissions through trade, deforestation and extractive industries.

“It is no exaggeration to say that this could be the most important case ever tried by the European court of human rights,” said Marc Willers QC, who is representing the young plaintiffs.

He said the onus was on the 33 governments. “We know they are not yet doing enough and the court’s decision to give the case priority status will add to the ever-growing pressure on European governments to act on the science and take the necessary steps to tackle climate change.”

The plaintiffs – four children and two young adults from Portugal – argue tougher climate action is needed to safeguard their future physical and mental wellbeing, to prevent discrimination against the young and protect their rights to exercise outdoors and live without anxiety.

The case was filed in September after Portugal recorded its hottest July in 90 years. It was initiated three years ago after devastating forest fires in Portugal that killed more than 120 people in 2017. Four of the plaintiffs are from Leiria, one of the worst-hit areas. The two other applicants live in Lisbon, which sweltered through record-breaking 44C (111F) heat in 2018.

Twelve-year-old André Oliveira, one of the youth applicants, said in a statement: “It gives me lots of hope to know that the judges in the European court of human rights recognise the urgency of our case. But what I’d like the most would be for European governments to immediately do what the scientists say is necessary to protect our future. Until they do this, we will keep on fighting with more determination than ever.”

The young applicants are being represented by British barristers, including Willers, who is an expert in environmental and climate change law, and supported by the London- and Dublin-based NGO Global Legal Action Network (Glan).

“These brave young people have cleared a major hurdle in their pursuit of a judgment which compels European governments to accelerate their climate mitigation efforts,” said Gerry Liston, Glan’s legal officer. “This comes just weeks ahead of the EU decision on its 2030 emissions target. Nothing less than a 65% reduction by 2030 will be enough for the EU member states to comply with their obligations to the youth applicants and indeed countless others.”

More than 1,300 climate-related lawsuits have been filed worldwide since 1990. The most successful so far was in the Netherlands, where the Urgenda Foundation forced the government into scaling back coal-fired power plants and taking other compliance measures worth about €3bn (£2.7bn).

The impact the Strasbourg judges could have is potentially greater as they sit on a standard-setting court and this case crosses multiple international boundaries.

The court has also taken the unusual step of expanding its consideration of the case by asking the 33 countries to explain whether their failure to tackle global heating violates article 3 of the European convention on human rights, which protects the right not to be subjected to ‘inhumane and degrading treatment’.

The Glan director, Gearóid Ó Cuinn, said he was encouraged by the judges’ sense of urgency. “As only a tiny minority of cases filed with the European court of human rights are fast-tracked and communicated, this development is highly significant. This is an appropriate response from the court given the scale and imminence of the threat these young people face from the climate emergency.”

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(AU) Bureau Of Meteorology Says The NT Experienced Its Hottest November In 100 Years

 ABC News - Dijana Damjanovic

The Northern Territory experienced its hottest November in more than 100 years. (ABC News: Michael Franchi)


Key points

  • Two high-pressure systems led to the past month's high temperatures
  • Rainfall was also below average due to a lack of cloud cover
  • The heat has particularly affected the Territory's vulnerable populations
The Northern Territory has sweltered through record-breaking November heat, recording daytime temperatures roughly 3.1 degrees Celsius above average.

It's the highest Northern Territory November average since records began in 1910.

In November 2019, the NT's monthly temperature was 2C above average — the fifth hottest and the third-driest on record.

This November, the hot air was dragged into the Territory by two high-pressure systems, which stayed consistent for most of the month.

"Basically the cause of the warm conditions right around the Territory has been twofold, one in the north which has been a ridge on the Queensland coast which has extended into the Top End and suppressed the showers and storm activity," said BOM senior forecaster Sally Cutter.

"Down through Central Australia, there's been troughs continually forming over WA and that's turned the winds northerly, it's just dragged that really hot air down through Central Australia."

Forecaster Sally Cutter say two high-pressure systems led to the past month's high temperatures. (ABC News: Erik Havnen)


Apart from small clusters in east and coastal parts of Arnhem Land, the entire Northern Territory also experienced above-average overnight temperatures.

Rainfall was also below average throughout the NT, except for a few regions south of the Top End and around Alice Springs, with November 2020 the eighth-lowest since records began.

"It sort of goes hand in hand, if you get those really hot temperatures, you need lack of cloud cover and therefore you get reduced amounts of rainfall," Ms Cutter said.

The lowest maximum temperature recorded at Darwin Airport was 31.9C on November 24 and its hottest was 37C on the 17th.

While in Alice Springs, the warmest daytime temperature came in at 43.5C on the 14th of November while its coolest was on the 16th when it was 28.9C.

Adam Thacker struggles to retain staff due to the hot working conditions associated with his landscaping business. (ABC News: Erik Havnen)


Total Yard and Garden Care director Adam Thacker says the hotter weather makes it hard to retain staff.

"I think the biggest thing is going to be trying to hire locals, because people from down south don't really last in the heat up here, we go through at least 20 workers a year," Mr Thacker said.

"I'm just sitting here trying to get workers, they might last a couple of days or they might do two weeks and then they burn out. They just can't handle the heat."

Vulnerable populations, such as the NT's homeless, have also been affected.

"We've had a number in the past week, our patrols had to deal with an incident on Friday afternoon that took them more than an hour, because someone had reacted because of the heat stress," said Robert Cooper, chief executive of Larrakia Nation.

"When the power was off, they had an old bloke collapsed in front of his accommodation," he said.

Robert Cooper CEO of Larrakia Nation, says their organisation is calling for donated water to hand out to people sleeping rough. (ABC News: Erik Havnen)
The Northern Territory has Australia's highest rate of homelessness, with figures from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare showing one in 26 people in the NT received help from support services in 2018-19 — well above the national rate of one in 86 people.

Larrakia Nation has daily contact with people sleeping rough on the street.

"We're trying to prepare them not only for the heat but also the potential of COVID-19, and having them understand that coming into the air conditioning [in shopping centres] is not always appropriate," Mr Robert Cooper said.

Mr Cooper said Larrakia Nation was in desperate need for donated water, so his staff could distribute it among rough sleepers.

"We are currently trying to find a way to get more water out to our clients, particularly out where they're camping," he said.

"So if there's anyone out there from the supermarkets who want to help, please get in touch."

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01/12/2020

(CA) The World's Major Climate Zones — Polar, Temperate And Tropical — Are Transforming As We Watch

CBC Canada - Amanda Buckiewicz, CBC Radio Quirks & Quarks

Several recent studies look at how climate change is redrawing the map

A firefighter watches as a wildfire burns in California. Wildfire intensity has increased in recent years, and researchers believe this is partly due to the dry, arid edges of the tropics stretching more towards the poles. (RINGO CHIU/AFP via Getty Images)

Beyond the receding glaciers and disappearing coastlines, several recent studies have taken a big picture view of how climate change is affecting the globe's major climate zones and has brought about alarming transformations.

Climate zones — like tropical, temperate or polar — represent more than just temperature; they represent water resources, vegetation, animal life and even where and how humans can live.

"Often in our community, we say climate is what you expect and weather is what you get. And in this case, it's almost like we don't really know what to expect anymore," climate researcher Laura Landrum told Quirks & Quarks producer Amanda Buckiewicz.

Climate Zones Audio 17:34

Over the years, scientists have painted a stark picture of how climate change is altering the world's biomes in a fundamental way. A global 2018 study published in the journal Science showed that every ecosystem on Earth could face a dramatic shift if climate change continues unabated. Now scientists are reporting those shifts are beginning to happen — and showing how much worse it could get if it goes unchecked.

The Arctic is transitioning to a new climate

A recent study published in the journal Nature says that the Arctic is beginning to shift into a new climate regime.

"The Arctic climate is changing very rapidly and extremely, so it's in a different climate, meaning that the statistics of it now are very different than they were in the 20th century," said Landrum, the lead author of the paper.

A guide walks along a winding channel carved by rushing water on the surface of the melting Longyearbreen glacier during a summer heat wave in Norway. A recent study shows that the Arctic is shifting into a new climate zone. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)
Using decades of observations in the Arctic, combined with models and computer simulations, Landrum was able to statistically define the boundaries of a supposedly "normal" Arctic climate. And this showed that current conditions are well beyond normal.

They looked at indicators like sea ice cover, surface temperature and days of rain, and found that the year-to-year fluctuations have now moved completely outside the bounds of natural variability. 

The researchers then projected the trajectory of these shifts out to the year 2100. They found that a new, largely unrecognizable Arctic will have emerged by then. It will be completely ice-free for three to four months of the year; fall and winter temperatures could be 16 C to 28 C warmer than they are now; and the rainy season would be extended by two to four months each year.

A climate regime like this has never seen before in human evolutionary history. 

"It usually takes thousands of years to make these changes, and it certainly has not warmed up on a planetary scale over the last several thousand years, as warm as we're seeing now," said Landrum.

The Tropics are expanding

Another study looked at how the Earth's tropics are expanding — and found that the ocean is to blame.

The tropics wrap around the globe closest to the equator and get the most direct sunlight throughout the year. The interior of the tropics is hot and lush, and home to the world's rainforests. However, the edges of the tropics — the subtropical region — is hot and dry, and is where many of the world's deserts can be found.

A 2006 study in the journal Science found that the tropics were expanding toward the poles, causing those dry, arid regions to spread. This has caused the paths of tropical storms to shift, and led to more severe droughts — and seasonal wildfires — around the Mediterranean and in California and Australia.

The remains of houses can be seen after a wildfire in California. (SAMUEL CORUM/AFP via Getty Images)

"Under an expanding tropic, the Sahara-like, desert-like climate will move toward the North, then the Mediterranean countries will have a serious problem of water resources. Portugal, Italy, Spain, Greece and Turkey will suffer more drought in the future," said Hu Yang, a climate scientist at the Alfred Wegner Institute.

Yang recently led a study looking at whether ocean circulation could be the cause of this expansion. 

By analyzing water temperatures in the major ocean currents as well as satellite observations of sea surface temperature, they discovered that excess heat build up in the ocean is what is driving the expansion of the tropics.

"When we found the answer of expanding topics, of course, we are very excited because we worked on this topic for more than five years," said Yang. "But on the other hand, we're also very sad because our result shows that expanding tropics are not some natural climate variability. It is really climate change."

Amazon rainforest could shift to a savannah

Another study found that shifting rainfall patterns in the tropics could see large parts of the Amazon rainforest shift into a drier, savannah-like ecosystem. 

"What we know is that the rainforest needs certain rainfall amounts to be sustained. And what happens with climate change is that the rainfall in Amazon decreases so much that you don't have a lot of areas with rainfall — about 2,000 millimetres — anymore, so you don't have a large zone with stable rainforest," said Lan Wang-Erlandsson, an author on the study.

Dead trees stand behind power lines in a recently degraded section of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil. A recent study suggests that decreasing rainfall in the Amazon could see more of it turning into a savannah-like ecosystem. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

The study, which was produced by the Stockholm Resilience Centre, looked at current rainfall levels, and found that they could support either a savannah or a rainforest ecosystem. But the team also looked ahead to the end of the century, and found that if greenhouse gas emissions remain at their current rate and rainfall levels continue to fall, by the end of the century the Amazon rainforest could shrink by 66 per cent, as vast swaths shift into open forest and grassland. 

Wang-Erlandsson cautions that while these results may seem catastrophic, they're not set in stone yet.

"What we show is this scenario of severe climate change. We don't have to head toward this severe climate scenario," she said.

"We can see where we could be heading if we don't do anything; that is what is at stake. That's a cost of inaction, but also that we still have that space for action, I think."

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Lethal Heating is a citizens' initiative