26/01/2021

(AU) Australia To Join 100 Nations In Climate Resilience Pledge Ahead Of UN Summit

Sydney Morning Herald - Rob Harris

Australia will join Britain and more than 100 countries in a global push for increased urgency for nations to adapt to climate change and the increased droughts, heat waves, cyclones, devastating storms, floods and rising sea levels that come with it.

Federal Environment Minister Sussan Ley will also use an address on Tuesday morning to the international Climate Adaptation Summit to commit Australia to new national climate resilience and adaptation strategy as the impacts of climate change exacerbate economic, social and security threats.

Environment Minister Sussan Ley. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

In a prerecorded address, Ms Ley will underline Australia’s commitment to working with the international community to build on the country’s collaboration with scientists, communities and traditional owners to act on, and adapt to, an already changing climate.

It will include an initial $12.9 million investment towards establishing Climate and Resilience Services Australia, a new capability that will connect and leverage the Commonwealth’s climate and natural disaster risk information to further prepare for and build resilience to natural disasters.

Ms Ley’s speech follows Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s comments at the weekend that he would not be altering Australia’s 2030 climate emissions reductions targets or sign-up to a 2035 target ahead of this year’s United Nations climate change conference in Glasgow.

Ms Ley said that despite global criticism over Australia’s lack of ambition on climate emission targets, the nation was “deeply committed” to collaboration that accelerated adaptation to protect communities and the planet.

“We are joining global partnerships and taking the lead in building resilient communities,” Ms Ley will say, according to a draft copy of the speech circulated to the media.

“Climate adaptation is about taking practical actions to help our environment, our communities and our economy deal with the impacts of climate change that are already taking place.

“We are focused on the steps we can take now and in the future to create a more resilient Australia.”

Labor has increased its attacks on the Morrison government over its tardiness to allocate funding for projects under its own domestic disaster resilience projects, claiming flood-prone regions were unlikely to receive newly-announced mitigation funding until floods have already hit.

Last month it accused the Morrison government of ignoring warnings of La Niña conditions this summer by refusing to spend its $4 billion disaster recovery and resilience fund 18 months after it was announced.

Ms Ley will also announce that Australia will join the Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment - a UN summit initiative, which represents the commitment of the global private financial industry, in partnership with key private and public institutions, to foster the more efficient integration of physical climate risks in investment decision making.

“As part of our commitment to build a more climate resilient world, Australia has pledged new global finance of at least $1.5 billion over the period 2021 to 2025, a 50 per cent increase on the previous period.”

She said establishing Climate and Resilience Services Australia was an example of bringing together Australia’s world-leading climate and natural disaster information and expertise into a national capability.

“For all the work we are doing, we know that the challenges we face are growing and the development of a new National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy throughout 2021 will provide an important road map to meet these future challenges.”

Greenpeace Australia Pacific spokesperson Nelli Stevenson said the federal government’s focus on building “climate resilience”, while remaining committed to mining, burning and exporting coal and gas was putting Australian communities in danger from worsening bushfires and extreme heat.

“Australia is one of the world’s worst climate offenders,” she said.

“We export more coal and gas, the primary drivers of dangerous climate change, than anywhere else in the world. Our federal government has steadfastly refused to follow the lead set by the rest of the world, as well as our states, territories and industry, in committing to net zero emissions.”

She said for Ms Ley to call for “climate resilience” while Australia continued to “spew out emissions smacks of the worst kind of hypocrisy”.

“Australia must step up and commit to net zero emissions by 2040, and phase out mining and burning coal and gas if it is serious about protecting communities from climate impacts such as worsening bushfires, extreme heatwaves, flooding and droughts,” she said. “To keep communities safe, climate resilience alone isn’t going to cut it.”

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(AU) Coalition Signs Australia Up To Agreements To Price In Climate Risk

The Guardian - 

Announcement could inflame tensions between Liberals and Nationals, who have criticised banks for asking businesses for carbon transition plans

Federal environment minister Sussan Ley will sign Australia up to Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment and the Call for Action: Raising Ambition for Climate Adaptation and Resilience. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Australia will sign up to two international agreements that aim to integrate climate risk into investment decision-making including through pricing risk, Sussan Ley will announce.

The environment minister will tell the 2021 Climate Adaptation Summit on Monday that Australia will join the Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment and the Call for Action: Raising Ambition for Climate Adaptation and Resilience.

The move could inflame tensions in Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition, due to the National party’s frequent criticism of banks refusing to lend to coalminers and requiring carbon transition plans as a condition of lending.

In an advance copy of her speech, seen by Guardian Australia, Ley commits Australia to join the Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment, an initiative of the forthcoming Cop26 UN climate conference in Glasgow.

The coalition is designed to foster more efficient integration of physical climate risks in investment decision-making.

In a statement, Ley said the coalition was about “putting the tools and know-how into the hands of the investment community and ensuring the infrastructure we build is fit for future climate conditions”.

Ley will also announce Australia is also joining the Call for Action: Raising Ambition for Climate Adaptation and Resilience spearheaded by the UK and signed by 118 countries.

That agreement states that signatories will build “resilient futures by putting climate risk at the centre of decision-making” including through “long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies, or other relevant long-term strategies”.

It also commits members to “increasing the resilience of our economies and financial systems by taking steps to integrate climate risk into investment decision-making and business planning, including through disclosing and pricing risk”.

In December tensions in the Coalition were on display when Liberal MP Katie Allen deprived National MP George Christensen of the vote he needed to set up an inquiry into the climate policy of banks and insurers.

The resources minister, Keith Pitt, told Guardian Australia the joint standing committee on trade and investment growth must “do its job” and insisted the inquiry would go ahead.

At the virtual summit, hosted by the Netherlands, Ley will also promise that in July Australia will set up a National Resilience Relief and Recovery Agency, as recommended by the bushfire royal commission, and Climate and Resilience Services Australia.

In a statement, she committed $12.9m to the latter agency which she said would “connect and leverage the commonwealth’s extensive climate and natural disaster risk information to further prepare for and build resilience to natural disasters”.

Ley’s speech is part of a broader repositioning by the Morrison government as Australia is increasingly isolated on preventing global heating.

In recent months the UK has criticised Australia’s lack of a net zero by 2050 target and the new US president Joe Biden has said Australia must help to confront climate change.

Scott Morrison has signalled Australia may not use Kyoto carryover credits and changed his language by saying Australia wants to “reach net zero emissions as quickly as possible” – but is yet to substantially raise Australia’s emissions reduction ambition beyond a 26% to 28% reduction by 2030.

Morrison has suggested he will not take more stringent medium-term targets to the Glasgow climate conference in November, arguing Australia can achieve reductions through technological improvement regardless of targets.

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(AU) New Focus On Climate Change Adaptation But No Sign Of 2050 Emissions Commitment

ABC News - Jack Snape

Environment Minister Sussan Ley announced Australia was joining international climate adaptation efforts. (ABC News: Ian Cutmore)

Key Points
  • Australia is making international commitments to help prepare the planet for climate change
  • It has made a 2030 commitment to reduce carbon emissions by 26 per cent on 2005 levels
  • Over 100 countries have made commitments to achieve net zero emissions by 2050
Australia is joining international efforts to prepare for a changing climate ahead of the UN climate change conference in Glasgow later this year, but critics are still demanding it makes new commitments to reduce emissions.

Australia has joined Canada and the EU in signing up to an international call for climate adaptation and resilience.

It was originally put forward by the UK and signed by 118 countries in 2019.

Environment Minister Sussan Ley said Australia was "joining global partnerships and taking the lead in building resilient communities".

"Climate adaptation is about taking practical actions to help our environment, our communities and our economy deal with the impacts of climate change that are already taking place," she said.

The text of the document reads, "we stand together as global leaders to express our highest concern at the climate crisis that the world is now facing, and our resolve to act", and identifies three areas of commitments:
  • Acting now to respond to immediate climate impacts and to support the most vulnerable members of society;
  • Building resilient futures by putting climate risk at the centre of decision making; and
  • Urgently increasing the availability of adaptation and resilience finance.
The Minister also revealed Australia would commit to the Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment, which encourages investment decisions to factor in climate risks.

Australia has pledged to lower carbon emissions by 26 per cent, based on 2005 levels, by 2030.

But it has still not made a formal commitment to achieve new zero emissions by 2050, nor has it offered targets between 2030 and 2050.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is focused on reducing emissions using new technologies. (ABC Western Queensland: Ellie Grounds)

Prime Minister Scott Morrison last week said he wasn't interested in making new commitments but would pursue emissions reducing technologies, like carbon capture and storage and hydrogen.

"That is how you actually get to net zero. You don't get there by just having some commitment," he told The Australian newspaper.

"That is where the discussion has to go, and I think the [new United States] Biden administration provides an opportunity to really pursue that with some enthusiasm."

More than 100 countries including the UK have pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, and China has committed to achieving it by 2060.

Joe Biden campaigned on a platform of net zero emissions by 2050 in the US presidential election and has vowed to keep climate at the centre of all government decisions.

Move welcomed but more asked

The Australian Conservation Foundation's climate program manager Gavan McFadzean welcomed Ms Ley's announcement but called for a 2050 emissions commitment.

"If the Morrison Government thinks it can convince the global community that by engaging in adaptation it has fulfilled its climate change responsibilities, it's badly misread the room," he said.

"By November's COP in Glasgow, the world will expect Australia to commit to at least net zero emissions reduction before 2050, with clear and measurable policies and interim targets to show how we will get there."

More intense natural disasters loom as one impact of climate change. (ABC News: Marcus Alborn)

Labor's climate change spokesman Mark Butler said the Government had a track record of failing to prepare for climate adaptation and called for a net zero emissions by 2050 pledge.

"The Government completely excluded climate adaptation from their 2017 Review of Climate Change Policies," he said.

"They cut funding for significant adaptation work at CSIRO, completely de-funded the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility and produced a new National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework that fails to take climate change seriously."

Greens leader Adam Bandt said "the Coalition is driving us off the climate cliff, but want to let us know they've packed a box of band-aids for the trip".

"If the Government can commit to 'ambitious' mitigation targets, it should commit to ambitious prevention targets, too, otherwise Scott Morrison is just making the climate crisis worse."

Mr Morrison told the Business Council of Australia AGM in November: "Looking beyond 2030 we want to reach net zero emissions as quickly as possible and to achieve this through technology, not higher taxes either directly through government sanctioned electricity prices or as a result of a carbon tax."

In a call with Mr Morrison in October, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson emphasised the need for "bold action" to address climate change.

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A Million Young People Urge Governments To Prioritise Climate Crisis

The Guardian - 

World leaders will meet for Climate Adaptation Summit to consider how to adapt to extreme weather

Climate campaigners in Lisbon last year. Photograph: Horacio Villalobos/Corbis/Getty Images

More than 1 million young people around the world have urged governments to prioritise measures to protect against the ravages of climate breakdown during the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

World leaders are due to meet by video link on Monday to consider how to adapt to the extreme weather, wildfires and floods that have become more common as temperatures rise. Ban Ki-moon, the former UN secretary general, will lead the Climate Adaptation Summit, and leaders including Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Narendra Modi are expected to attend.

Ban said: “We must remember there is no vaccine to fix our changing climate. As climate change impacts continue to intensify, we must put adaptation on an equal footing with [cutting emissions]. Building resilience to climate change impacts is not a nice-to-have, it is a must, if we are to live in a sustainable and secure world.”

He said efforts to repair the damage done to economies by Covid-19 were in danger of compounding the problem. “I am deeply concerned that in domestic stimulus plans dirty measures that increase carbon emissions outnumber green initiatives by four to one,” he said.

Patrick Verkooijen, the chief executive of the Global Centre on Adaptation, said it was time to redirect spending.

“As governments begin to invest trillions of dollars to recover from the pandemic, they have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to build a more resilient, climate-smart future – to build adaptation in the next round of fiscal stimulus,” he said. “A coordinated green resilient infrastructure push with the right policy incentives could boost global GDP by 0.7% in the first 15 years and create millions of jobs.”

Climate-related disasters are estimated to have cost about $650bn (£474bn) globally in the past three years, amounting to more than 0.25% of total GDP. The UN has warned that by 2040 damages associated with climate breakdown could soar to $54tn.

Activists from the Youth Adaptation Network signed a call to action urging government interventions over the next decade “to prepare younger generations for the transition towards green and climate-resilient development”.

They called for a greater focus on climate change in education around the world, and for educational resources to help communities adapt to the impacts of climate change to be provided online. They also called for more funding for projects that increase resilience to the impacts of climate breakdown.

Many of the measures needed to reduce people’s vulnerability to extreme weather are well understood and relatively cheap to implement, from early warning systems against storms, to planting trees that help prevent flooding and landslides, or regrowing coastal mangrove swamps that provide a natural barrier to storm surges and sea level rises.

However, despite their proven efficacy, little funding is available for taking such preventive measures. A recent report from the UN Environment Programme found that the world was badly lagging behind on the actions needed.

The youth document called for “a timely and innovative financing mechanism, and technical assistance to support youth-focused projects that build resilience and adaptive capacity among marginalised communities”, and for assistance to young people in vulnerable communities seeking to install adaptation measures.

The need for adaptation measures is increasing. Last year saw numerous examples of escalating extreme weather around the world, from a heatwave in Siberia to devastating wildfires in Australia and the US, a record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season, and storms and floods in Asia. The pandemic took a further toll on the ability of many countries to cope with these disasters, according to a report on climate adaptation to be presented at the summit.

“Extreme climate events compounded the challenges of responding to the pandemic in 2020. Evacuating populations from the path of cyclones, hurricanes with the threat of contagion. Covid-19 and climate disasters intersected to create a set of cascading risks, highlighting the interconnected nature of the impact of systemic shocks and the importance of a coordinated global and local response,” the report said.

Thousands of scientists from around the world, including four Nobel prize winners, have signed a separate call to world leaders at the summit, demanding that adaptation be prioritised.

They said in their statement: “As our failed response to the Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated, the world is simply not ready to face the investable impacts of our climate emergency. Unless we step up and adapt now, the results will be increasing poverty, water shortages, agricultural losses and soaring levels of migration with an enormous toll on human life.

“We must avoid inaction where those who are not rich lose out, and cannot react in the timeframe necessary and without resources to make the required changes.”

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25/01/2021

(AU) US Under Biden To Test Morrison Government's Do-Little Climate Stance

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Hannam | Mike Foley

Those hoping new United States President Joe Biden would make action on climate change one of his top priorities would have been cheered by the flurry of activity from his first days in office.

With a few strokes of his pen, Biden cancelled a Trump administration permit for the $US8 billion ($10.3 billion) Keystone XL pipeline linking Canada’s oil sands to the Gulf coast, slapped a moratorium on oil and gas leases in Alaska’s pristine Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, began a review of pollution regulations and ordered that the US rejoin the Paris climate agreement 77 days after it had formally left it.

President Joe Biden reversed many Trump administration policies in his first days in office, including setting up the US to formally rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement 77 days after the country left it. Credit: AP




And kicking off the new administration’s first full day in office, Biden’s special climate envoy, John Kerry, was up at Washington’s crack of dawn to tell business leaders of G20 nations the US was on the “road back to progress” on climate action after “four wasted years” under Donald Trump.

“The early hour is appropriate because we really don’t have a minute to waste,” Kerry said, adding that “very few” nations were on a trajectory of cutting greenhouse emissions to meet even the current goals, “let alone the targets we need to avert catastrophic damage”.

John Kerry signing the Paris Accords to reduce global greenhouse emissions to tackle climate change in 2016 with his granddaughter. As President Biden's special climate envoy, Kerry is expected to lead America's diplomatic efforts to accelerate climate action globally. Credit: Getty


In comments that would have been picked up in Canberra, Kerry signalled that Washington would be pressing other countries to do better – albeit with some “humility” because the US had “walked away from the table” – particularly at the next global climate summit planned for Scotland later this year.

“At [Glasgow] in November, all nations must raise ambition together – or we will all fail, together,” he said.

Among rich nations, Australia is arguably among the most exposed to any US diplomatic offensive. As one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel exporters and with one of the highest per capita levels of carbon emissions at home, the country has earned a global reputation for weak ambition.

Climate Action Tracker, independent analysts supported in part by the German government, rate Australia’s current target of cutting 2005-level emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030 as “insufficient”, with “a lack of climate policy across all sectors”.

“The Australian government has initiated a gas-led recovery [from COVID-19] rather than a green recovery, and has continued to signal its support for the coal industry,” it said. “The government has shown no intention of updating its Paris Agreement target nor adopting a net-zero emissions target, with the Prime Minister [Scott Morrison] specifically ruling this out.”

Prime Minister Scott Morrison wears a hard hat and face mask during a visit to South32′s Cannington coal mine in McKinlay, Queensland last week. Credit: AAP



Howard Bamsey, Australia’s former top climate diplomat, says the Biden team’s ambitions are likely to make “Australia even more exceptional than it was on international climate diplomacy”.

Countries that account for more than 70 per cent of Australia’s trade, such as China, have already set carbon-neutrality goals. One result is that the Morrison government’s refusal to offer one for Australia means the country’s international reputation is “worse than it needs to be”.

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“It’s very puzzling why Australia would allow its position to be compromised so unnecessarily. Why don’t we just say it and get on with it?” says Bamsey, now a professor at the Australian National University.

Bamsay lays blame on members within the government who have halted climate action in the past: “There’s no other explanation for these missteps than some peculiar party room problem and we’re paying a very high price for it, which is about to increase.”

One area of interest will be to see if Australia’s decision in 2018 to halt new contributions to the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund after its initial foray of $200 million gets fresh scrutiny from the US or others.

The Biden administration has committed to restart US funding after President Donald Trump blocked contributions after the first $US1 billion of the $US3 billion promised by his predecessor, Barack Obama.

Bamsey, who served on the secretariat of the fund when it was set up, says Australia’s money translated into $600 million being invested into the Pacific. “It was a terrific result for Australia,” he says, adding that other nations “will certainly encourage Australia to do more”.

“Don’t be afraid”: Prime Minister Scott Morrison holding a lump of coal during question time in 2017 when he was Treasurer. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen



Bill Hare, a director of Climate Analytics and a climate summit veteran, says: “Australia is going to be under a fair bit of pressure, internationally”.

The most recent formal summit, in Madrid in late 2019, already had Australia lining up with the likes of Saudi Arabia, Russia and Brazil to slow progress. Hare says the European Union and Britain – both of which had lifted their 2030 climate ambitions at the end of last year – are among those already scrutinising the Morrison government’s stance.

In particular will be how Australia negotiates on the Paris Rulebook, which will determine whether or not any so-called carry-over credits for overachievement during the previous Kyoto Protocol (2008-20) could be counted towards the Paris Agreement (2021-30).

After stating such credits should be used, the Morrison government has lately said they won’t be needed because Australia’s emissions are falling faster than forecast, although it has not yet committed to formally extinguishing them.

Alan Pears, an energy expert at RMIT University, says Australia would be better off buying international carbon credits to offset any shortfall of its 2030 targets.

Such offsets “are cheap compared with creating a real global view that they are cheats”, Pears says. “That’s not worth it.”

Among Biden’s policies is achieving net-zero emissions from US electricity industry by 2035. Credit: Bloomberg
The Morrison government, of course, has had a lot of time to get its lines straight. Not only was Biden elected more than 11 weeks ago, officials were well versed in his views on the campaign trail and from his time serving as vice-president during Barack Obama’s two presidential terms (2009-17).

“The President has made it clear, [climate change is] an existential threat that has to be addressed,” Australia’s ambassador to the US, Arthur Sinodinos, told ABC’s Radio National on Friday.

Setting climate targets “is obviously something the Australian government will have to look at”, he said. “Targets are important, but what’s also important is to have plans.”

Picking up where Barack Obama left off: Joe Biden (left) visits rooftop solar panels in Denver, Colorado in 2009, when he was US Vice-President. Credit: Getty
A spokesman for Angus Taylor, the Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister, echoed that sentiment, adding that “we welcome the Biden administration’s return to the Paris Agreement and focus on investing in new and emerging technologies that will lower global emissions”.

Among Australia’s commitment is $300 million to fund the development of hydrogen technology, including both gas and renewable energy sources.

The spokesman said the US stance “aligns with Australia’s Technology Investment Roadmap, which was discussed between President Biden and PM Morrison in November last year”, without elaborating.

Sinodinos went further, saying “we’re looking to actually enter into a low-emissions technology partnership with the US” and “there’s a lot of commonality in our programs”.

The Trump Administration promised to boost coal but in fact many coal-fired power plants and mines closed during his term. Credit: Andrew Harrer



Just how much commonality remains to be seen, especially if John Kerry’s urgent wish-list is realised.

Describing the potential bonanza as “the economic opportunity of many lifetimes”, the climate envoy said the transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 needs to happen much faster than it is.

The phase-out of coal, for instance, will need to be five times faster than has happened during the 2013-18 period; tree-cover increases must also quicken five-fold; while the ramp-up of renewable energy must rise six times; and, the transition to electric vehicles 22 times faster, Kerry says.

“In this decade through 2030, the world will need more than $US1 trillion in annual investment in clean power systems to speed the energy transition [alone],” he says.

For a comparison, figures out last week from Bloomberg New Energy Finance tallied a record $US501.3 billion in decarbonisation efforts in 2020, a 9 per cent rise on the previous year, even with the COVID-19 pandemic.

RMIT’s Pears expects the Morrison government will surprise many by setting a 2050 net-zero target and may even lift its 2030 target.

For one thing, the states and territories have already set mid-century carbon neutrality goals and many companies are following suit. He points to the little-known federal government-backed Climate Active website, where organisations can have their achievements certified.

For the cost of $170,000 in offsets, for instance, the Bayside Council in Melbourne (where Pears resides) achieved net-zero emissions last year. “It’s all going on under the radar,” he says.

Similarly, the government is basing Australia’s emissions projections on “unrealistically conservative” modelling, particularly for the electricity sector.

It uses the central forecast for emissions used by the Australian Energy Market Operator, when the much lower “step change” trajectory is actually being implemented as ever cheaper renewable energy enters the industry.

That leaves the Morrison government with the opportunity to confound critics and deflect diplomatic urgings from wherever they come.

“They will miraculously meet and beat their targets without much effort at all,” Pears predicts. 

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(AU) Victoria Gets Trillion-Dollar Bad News: Sea Level Rises Will Swamp Parts Of The State

The Age - Royce Millar

The Andrews government has been provided two new scientific reports that show sea level rises well above those they are planning for, threatening its development-led recovery.

Farmer and golfer Rex Grady, who has been involved in protecting the golf course for years from sea level rises. Credit: James Mepham
New scientific and economic research for the Andrews government warns of the grave risk of rising seas along the Victorian coast including trillions of dollars of damage to homes and other assets, if global warming is not slowed and planned for.

The research will add pressure on the government to further restrict development on the coast by lifting its current sea level rise planning benchmark of 0.8 metres by 2100, and to start planning for the “retreat” of some low-lying coastal towns.

Rex Grady near the barrier erected by the Port Fairy golf club to protect the course from rising seas. Credit: James Mepham
University of Melbourne professor of environmental economics Tom Kompas, is in the early stages of a risk analysis for the government and its advisory body, the Victorian Marine and Coastal Council.

He said sea level rise was the “biggest risk to the Australian economy from climate change” – bigger even than bushfires, heat stress and the damage to agriculture.

“This will certainly be bigger than an annual COVID-19 hit to the economy,” he said, with early findings pointing to damages in the trillions of dollars without adequate intervention and planning.

But the warning also presents a quandary for a government which sees construction as key to the state’s COVID-19 recovery, and as as many Melburnians seek to relocate out of the city in the wake of COVID-19.

The current 0.8 metre projected rise is consistent with the now dated projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and, since 2008, has guided where development and construction can occur along Victoria’s 2500-kilometre coastline.

The 0.8 metre figure does not take into account the projected melting of the Greenland and Antarctic glaciers and ice sheets. Updated IPCC projections in 2019 did factor in ice melt and found that inaction on climate change would likely result in a sea level rise of 1.1 metres by 2100 and five metres by 2300.

The CSIRO has provided advice to the government on the IPCC projections translated locally across the Victorian coast. If the government accepts the IPCC’s upper-end projections, as it did in 2008, it would revise its own benchmark to about 1.1 metres by 2100.

Without intervention a 1.1-metre sea level rise would put at risk many areas around Port Phillip Bay but also many much- loved coastal towns such as Port Fairy, Apollo Bay, Inverloch and Lakes Entrance.

Port Phillip Bay climate change hot spots at 1.1 metre sea level rise
Graphic: Mark Stehle, Source: Deakin University

On the coast beyond Melbourne where wild seas are a daily reality, many need no more convincing of the reality and danger of climate change-affected sea level rise.

Rex Grady is life member of the Port Fairy golf club whose 18-hole course hugs the rugged coastline of south-western Victoria. “If you slice your ball you go into the water,” he told The Sunday Age with a chuckle.

For years, Mr Grady has helped the club defend the famed 16th fairway, a local inundation weak spot on a dune that also protects the low-lying Port Fairy from an advancing ocean.

Over three decades about 17 metres of sand dune has been lost to the sea; the recession has sped up over the last 15 years.

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Australia trails Pacific nations in fight against climate change.
Parks Victoria built two fences that were washed away. “Then the council built a very substantial fence that lasted three weeks,” said Mr Grady.

More recently the retired beef and sheep farmer tractored in about 50 large square hay bales to help protect the dune, a suitably rural and effective approach to coastal protection. For now.

Mr Grady is no doubt that the hay bales are temporary and that the next time a king tide coincides with a big storm, the bales will be gone.

Years ago he was wary when scientists started talking about climate change. But after years observing changing weather patterns on his farm, and the mounting threat to his beloved golf course from the sea, he changed his mind.

“When you see the power of the sea and the damage it can do in a very short time you’re more likely to say ‘maybe this climate change thing is happening. Maybe it will take a while, but it is happening’.”

The local Moyne Shire agrees. It has jumped ahead of the state government and the IPCC with its own draft coastal strategy that includes a sea level rise benchmark of 1.2 metres rise by 2100.

“The shire knows that at 0.8 of a metre, sea level rise is a massive problem for the town,” said Mr Grady.

“If it goes to 1.2 metres then no need to worry because Port Fairy won’t be there anymore.”

The 16th fairway in Port Fairy. Credit: James Mepham
Some local property owners and developers are unimpressed. The 1.2 metre inundation zone will restrict where new housing can go; one large proposed estate is now in doubt.

Developer Michael Hearn has proposed an 81-lot subdivision on the Princes Highway, Port Fairy to help cater for strong demand for housing in the area.

His planner Steve Myers said the debate around sea level rise at Port Fairy had “slowed” the housing project by years.

He said it was unfair to plan for sea levels at 2100 because 80 years may be longer than the life cycle of homes built in the next few years.

Mr Myers called for a more “creative and adaptive approach to new development” on the coast.

Port Phillip Bay: areas under pressure
LARGE IMAGES
                          Werribee                                                 Elwood                                              Mentone / Frankston




Mr Grady said it would be interesting to see how the state government weighs developer demands against longer-term planning for climate change. “After-all, it always comes down to dollars and cents.” 

Those in and around the government who want climate science and long- term planning to prevail in this coastal debate, have struggled to provide their own “dollars and cents”: arguments over sea level rise.

That may soon change with the University of Melbourne ’s research assessing potential damage to an exhaustive list of assets and infrastructure along the coast including public and private property, homes, shops, farms, mines, parks, roads, bush, wetlands and groundwater.

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Whether such numbers are enough to convince treasury officials and politicians with shorter-term horizons is yet to be seen. The coastal strategy has been delayed because of COVID-19 and is now not due for completion until mid-year.

By then the government will also have a second and major CSIRO-led research report on coastal hazards for Port Phillip Bay, which is home to 1.3 million people and the Victorian waterway with most to lose if sea level rise is not adequately planned for.

The two CSIRO reports have not yet been officially considered or released.

But government insiders and experts familiar with the bay and climate change expect the research to be a major wake-up call for Melburnians, and the owners and managers of assets ranging from the beach boxes at Brighton and apartments in Elwood to big public assets like the Western Treatment Plant at Werribee.

Brighton bathing boxes. Credit: Eddie Jim
The west of the bay from Williamstown to Altona and at Werribee and Geelong is especially vulnerable because of its low-lying character and geomorphology.

The treatment plant - also an internationally-significant wetland and home to nearly 300 bird species - is a major piece of Melbourne public infrastructure. It is of special concern because it cannot be moved.

On Friday, Melbourne Water’s integrated planning manager, Chris Williams, said some parts of the plant were located close to the edge of Port Phillip Bay but that “climate change adaptation planning is part of our day to day work”.

Experts have also highlighted that even where sea walls and other structures have been built in the past, from Williamstown around to St Kilda and down to Beaumaris, many were not engineered with sea level rise in mind and may have to be rebuilt or raised.

Western Treatment Plant wetlands and birds. The plant is declared an internationally-significant wetland and home to nearly 300 bird species.
On Friday, Environment Minister Lily D’Ambrosio would not be drawn on whether the government would take on the new IPCC’s projections as it finalises the coastal strategy in coming months. 

But she said the sea level rise benchmark would be updated as necessary and “supported by the best available science and modelling that put global projections into a Victorian context”.

“Our precious coastline is facing significant climate challenges and we’re working hard to address what is a worldwide problem in both the short and long term,” she said.

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(AU) Politics Of Carbon Has Ended, Scott Morrison Declares

Weekend Australian - 

Scott Morrison tours a Volvo factory in Wacol, west of Brisbane, on Friday. Picture: Jono Searle

Scott Morrison says the political debate about reaching a carbon-neutral future is over but he will not take a new 2030 or 2035 emissions reduction target to a key UN climate conference in Glasgow this year.

The Prime Minister, while ­accepting there is no longer any question about the need to work towards net-zero emissions, is in no rush sign up to a target to achieve it by 2050.

In an interview with The Weekend Australian, Mr Morrison said his priority was to take ­action on climate change through developing technology rather than committing to new goals.

“It is now about the how, not the if … That is what I’m saying in G20; that is what I’m saying in G7,” the Prime Minister said.

“They are the conversations that I have, whether it is with the Europeans, or with the Japanese or whoever else … We all want to get there. It is not about the politics anymore, it is about the technology.”

The government will face pressure to sign up to the 2050 goal and unveil ambitious medium-term targets before the UN ­Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in December, where countries will provide updates on how they will lower emissions and take action on climate change.

Mr Morrison said there would be no update to medium-term targets ahead of Glasgow because there was not a requirement under the Paris Agreement to commit to a 2035 target this year.

Mr Morrison’s refusal to budge on medium-term climate goals is likely to open an election battle with Labor on climate change, with the opposition to unveil a 2035 target ahead of the poll due to be held between this August and May next year.

The Coalition spent its first two terms in government bitterly divided on climate change policies. Internal divisions sparked the creation of a pro-coal ginger group, the Monash Forum, which undermined Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership by pushing for Australia to leave Paris and build a taxpayer-funded coal-fired power station.

The government’s only formal climate change target is to lower emissions by 26-28 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030.

“There is no requirement to make a 2035 commitment this year, 2035 commitments don’t come up for some years,” Mr Morrison said.

A report released in December by the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources forecast Australia was on track to lower emissions by 29 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030, taking into account the government’s Technology Investment Roadmap released last year.

Energy Minister Angus Taylor has claimed a zero-net emissions by 2050 target would require a 2030 target of 42 per cent.

Lauding US President Joe Biden’s decision to re-enter the Paris Agreement, Mr Morrison said there was no longer any question about the need to work towards a zero-net emissions future.

But he said he was more interested in how to achieve it, than making pledges.

“It is about whether you can produce hydrogen at the right cost, it is about whether (carbon capture and storage) can be done at the right cost, it is whether we can produce low emissions steel and aluminium at the right cost,” the Prime Minister said.

“That is how you actually get to net zero. You don’t get there by just having some commitment.

“That is where the discussion has to go and I think the Biden administration provides an opportunity to really pursue that with some enthusiasm.”

The Prime Minister said the timeline for signing up to a zero-net-emissions target would be ­dependent on “where the science is at and where our assessment is based on the technologies”.

“When we are in a position to have a better understanding of the timetable for that, then we will talk about one,” Mr Morrison said. “But we are talking about being in a generation now which is the transition generation on ­energy. And how long that goes for, we will have to wait and see … technology will be the biggest ­determinant of that.”

Announcing a deal to secure cheaper domestic gas this week, Mr Morrison said the technology for batteries and storage was not yet ready to provide dispatchable power on a large scale.

On managing the economy this year, Mr Morrison said he would be focused on rolling out announced plans for his ­JobMaker program, including ­reforms in the sectors of energy, industrial relations, skills and manufacturing.

Mr Morrison will not move to lower the corporate tax rate further, as he called for by business groups to bolster economic growth in the aftermath of the pandemic.

“I don’t think there is support for that in the parliament, no,” Mr Morrison said. “We have been there they said no. So we will focus on the things we can get done. In the recent budget, what we have done is ensure that the tax reductions are targeted ­towards the investments that we are seeking to drive the economy.

“The tax rate for those businesses (with a turnover of) under $50m is already coming down. And then for larger businesses I think what you will see is, through the other incentives we have put in, whether it is (research and ­development), or these other measures, you will see that bring down their effective tax rate.”

Mr Morrison rejected accusations that his government was going slow on structural reform.

“I think there is bit of a view that the only structural reform that has ever existed in Australia is putting up the GST,” he said.

“That is just putting up a tax.”

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