(WIRED) How To Prepare For Climate Change's Most Immediate Impacts

WIRED - Emma Pattee

The effects of the climate crisis are happening right now. From natural disasters to supply chain shortages, here's how to cope.

Climate change is making natural disasters more frequent, more severe, and more expensive. Photograph: KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/Getty Images

If you weren’t already convinced by the epic snowstorm, fatal heat dome, horrific flooding, apocalyptic fires, and terrifying IPCC report of 2021, let’s make one thing clear: Climate change is here, now, today.

Even if we all became carbon zero overnight—an impossibility—the climate would still keep changing.

And while it’s important to keep fighting, lobbying, and making lifestyle changes to reduce the impacts of climate change, it’s also important to admit that our planet has irrevocably changed and each of us needs to learn how to adapt.

The biggest challenge of learning to live in a new climate is that there’s so much uncertainty about what’s going to happen, to whom, and when. “Climate change will cause mass migrations and economic disruptions,” says John Ramey, the founder of The Prepared, a website focused on prepping.

“What will happen when millions of homes are lost, people move, food and water is scarce, and whole economic sectors fail?”

Nobody knows the answer to that question, much less whether it’s guaranteed that will all happen, but here’s a hint: Even a fraction of that is gonna be bad, and you’re gonna be glad that you read and took the advice in this article.

And if you’ve been eyeing cans of Spam at the grocery store, take heart that you’re not alone. According to a FEMA study, there’s been a recent growth in prepping—from 3.8 percent of American households in 2017 to 5.2 percent in 2019.

Ramey predicts that after the double whammy of a pandemic and nonstop climate disasters, that number could now be as high as 10 percent.

“The climate crisis is one of the single largest reasons behind the huge growth in the modern prepping community,” Ramey says, “especially among people under the age of 35 or so, since they're broadly well educated, believe the science, and have the fear or impression that the world will burn within their lifetime.”

When we hear the word prepping, most of us think immediately of a man with a long beard who lives in a hut in the woods, collects guns and “tactical” gear, and eats beans everyday for lunch. Or a Silicon Valley billionaire with a concrete fortress built to withstand nuclear war (with a bowling alley, because, you know, the apocalypse gets boring real fast).

“The media likes to highlight extreme characters and stories, such as a nutter wrapping his entire suburban house in foil or moving into the woods to teach combat shooting to their toddlers,” says Ramey. “Those people are no more representative of preppers than the Kardashians are of Californians.”

At its core, prepping simply means taking actions to prepare yourself for a worst-case scenario. Chances are, you already do some form of prepping, whether that’s buying life insurance or installing a smoke alarm in your home.

While there may not be an exact blueprint for what climate change is going to do to each of our lives, experts have some solid guesses that, combined with some good old common sense, can help each of us prepare for our new normal.

“I can’t tell you when you’re going to get hit by a climate disaster,” says David Pogue, tech journalist and author of How to Prepare for Climate Change. “But I can tell you that sooner or later, it’ll come.”

Climate-Induced Natural Disasters

The evidence is clear: Climate change is making natural disasters more frequent, more severe, and more expensive.

“We’re getting freak heat waves and freak snowstorms, devastating droughts and historic downpours, flooding and water shortages,” explains Pogue. “Everything is changing simultaneously: oceans, atmosphere, plants, animals, permafrost, weather, seasons, insects, people.”

Because your risk of natural disaster is completely dependent on where you live, what’s most important is that you understand what disasters you, personally, may face (and don’t just rely on what disasters you’ve faced in the past—that’s not an accurate assessment anymore).

You can do this by researching your city or county’s emergency preparedness tips and making sure you understand the basics of surviving an earthquake, tornado, hurricane, flood, or wildfire.

Pogue says that, no matter where you live, you should make sure your homeowner or renter insurance covers the disasters you’re at risk for. He also points out that you don’t need to live on a coast to be at risk for flooding, and homeowners insurance doesn’t cover flooding.

After your insurance is squared away, he suggests prepping for two weeks of having no water, food, or power, packing a “go bag” to sustain you for a couple of days outside of your home, and making a plan with your family about where to meet if cell towers aren’t working.

His last piece of advice is the simplest: download the Red Cross Emergency app. It’s free and will give you early warning about disasters. “The most tragic way to die in a fire, flood, or hurricane is in your home because you never got the word to evacuate.”

Supply Chain Breakdown and Food Shortages

Whether or not you agree with experts who say that climate change could bring about a Roman Empire–esque societal collapse, it’s clear that shortages and supply chain disruptions are on the increasingly warm horizon.

As Covid-19 showed us, those disruptions can impact anything from medical supplies to car parts to finding a winter coat.

But the most concerning shortages that we face are access to food and water.

A 2019 UN report warns of a looming food crisis, and drought already threatens 40 percent of the world’s population, according to the WHO, and over 80 million people in the United States, according to the US government’s Drought Information system.

A new paper published in Advances in Nutrition suggests that climate change will cause rising food prices, greater food insecurity, and may lead to micronutrient deficiencies in more people.

While there may be little you can do to impact the global food chain, you can start in your own backyard by planting a fruit tree or starting a garden, learning how to grow climate-appropriate vegetables, and making sure your pantry is fully stocked with two weeks of water and food, along with any necessary medical supplies.

It’s also important to assume you won’t have warning before a food and water shortage, according to Ramey, so don’t put off stocking up until it’s too late. 

Becoming Resilient Together

Resilience may be an overused term when we talk about climate change, but for most of us, it’s grossly lacking in how prepared we are to care for ourselves, our loved ones, and our property if emergency workers aren’t able to assist us.

Barely half of Americans can perform CPR, only 17 percent know how to build a fire, and just 14 percent feel confident in their ability to identify edible plants and berries.

Basic skills—like learning how to operate a two-way radio, knowing the smartest escape route out of your city or neighborhood, or being able to change a bike tire—may sound simple, but can be the difference between life and death in a disaster.

Perhaps the most effective way to take care of yourself is to get close to others.

According to FEMA, 46 percent of people expect to rely a great deal on people in their neighborhood for assistance within the first 72 hours after a disaster.

“Prepping is not a lone wolf activity,” says Ramey.

It’s important that your immediate neighbors know your name and who is in your family—including pets—so they can inform first responders in the case of an earthquake or a fire.

In the event of supply chain disruptions, your neighbors may be your only access to vital supplies like batteries or extra diapers.

Building connections in your local community is also a great way to build an informal service network, because who knows when you may need help with an injury or a home repair.

As Ramey puts it: “Community wins in 99 percent of situations.”

Links

• The WIRED Guide to Climate Change
• Emergency preparedness and prepping checklists for everyone
• How to Prepare for Climate Change - A Practical Guide to Surviving the Chaos (book)
• How to Prepare for a Disaster, Emotionally and Mentally
• The Best Emergency Gear to Keep at Home
• Op-Ed: Collapseologists are warning humanity that business-as-usual will make the Earth uninhabitable 
• IPCC - Climate Change and Land
• The Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Micronutrient-Rich Food Supply 
• The Best Emergency Gear Is Other People

(USA The Hill) Nearly Half Of GDP In Cities At Risk Of Disruption From Nature Loss

The Hill - Zack Budryk

© Getty Images

Loss of biodiversity and nature could put up to $31 trillion of cities’ gross domestic product (GDP) at risk, according to research released Monday by the World Economic Forum.

More than 70 percent of the 576 biggest urban centers worldwide, comprising more than 1.4 billion people, are at elevated or extreme risk from environmental hazards like pollution, water contamination or extreme heat, according to the report.

About $31 trillion of their GDP, or 44 percent, is at risk from these losses. Although this is below the global average of 50 percent, it would trickle down to other regions due to the numerous sectors that are headquartered in cities, such as utilities, transportation and shipping.

More specifically, the report identified flooding as the foremost natural risk for more than 1,600 cities worldwide. Loss of coastal habitat is a major contributor to this risk, according to the report.

Like numerous risks from climate change and biodiversity loss, the poorest residents bear the greatest risk, with the World Bank estimating that the 600 million people most at risk are below the poverty line.

Air pollution and lack of green space in cities is also a major environmental risk and financial drain, according to the report. In southern and eastern Asia and the Pacific, exposure to air pollution cost the equivalent of 7.5 percent in regional GDP.

Urban centers represent more than 75 percent of carbon emissions worldwide, and the capital allocated for urban climate finance is far below the estimated amount necessary, according to the report.

The 2021 State of Cities Climate Finance Report found $384 billion in climate finance went to urban areas in 207-2018, compared to an estimate of $5 trillion needed.

However, the report estimates that sustainable development in these areas could create enough jobs and capital to offset these risks. Sustainable transportation infrastructure alone could create 21.6 million jobs by 2030, according to the report, with another 11.66 million created by more sustainable handling of waste.

“In the conventional paradigm, urban development and environmental health are like oil and water,” Akanksha Khatri, the World Economic Forum's Head of Nature and Biodiversity, said in a statement.

“This report shows that this does not have to be the case. Nature can be the backbone of urban development. By recognizing cities as living systems, we can support conditions for the health of people, planet and economy in urban areas.”

Links - The Hill Climate Change Articles

• Equilibrium/Sustainability — Climate change may threaten Winter Olympics
• Rising costs of climate crisis must compel Congress to act
• DiCaprio on climate change: 'Vote for people that are sane'
• Earth to Hollywood: Make more climate movies
• Rising costs of climate crisis must compel Congress to act
• Voting rights are essential for environmental justice and climate action
• Overnight Energy & Environment — Earth records its hottest years ever
• Global temperatures in past seven years hottest ever observed, new data show
• Climate change mitigation is creating a roadmap to a nationalized financial system

(The Conversation) Climate Change Is Creating Security Threats Around The World – And Militaries Are Responding

The Conversation - Timothy Clack | Richard Nugee

Arctic strategy: a Russian military drill in Shukozero in Arctic Russia. Lev Fedoseyev/TASS/Alamy Live News

Authors Dr Timothy Clack is Lecturer in Archaeology and Anthropology, University of Oxford Lieutenant General Richard Edward Nugee, CB, CVO, CBE is a retired senior British Army officer. He is a Senior Research Associate of the Climate Change & (In)Security Project, a collaboration between Oxford University and the Centre for Historical and Conflict Research (CHACR).

The British military is currently “too slow and resistant to change”, according to Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UK’s chief of defence staff.

The urgent always takes priority over the important.

But in the context of one of the world’s biggest security issues – climate change – threats and adaptations are evolving at pace.

In summer 2021, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change raised the threat level posed by climate change to a “code red for humanity”.

Anthropogenic climate change is at once evident and escalating, transforming natural, economic and socio-political environments.

As well as mitigating threats, governments and their militaries are manoeuvring to exploit opportunities and leverage advantage.

A range of climate scenarios have been forecast – but common to all is increased frequency and scale of extreme weather events, more droughts and floods, melting of ice caps and permafrost, rise in sea levels, and oceanic acidification and deoxygenation.

Both human and national security will almost certainly be affected by threats to agricultural regimes including increased pest and disease presence, spikes in food prices and shocks to food production and food logistics.

Consequences will include the recalibration of diplomatic alliances, displacement and dispossession of peoples, border disputes, endemic famine and warfare.

The tempo of the threat from the climate has accelerated.

Certain parts of the world are becoming “climate conflict hotspots”.

The effects of climate change shape, proliferate and amplify the threat, interacting in complex ways with pre-existing vulnerabilities such as socioeconomic inequality, fragile governance and inter-group tensions.

The UN reports that temperature increases in the Sahel region of Africa will be 1.5 times higher than the global average.

This is an existential problem for many countries in the region, such as Mali, where destructive weather already jeopardises agricultural production.

With an population growth rate of nearly 3%, Mali is also one of the youngest and fastest-growing populations in the world.

Vicious cycle: famine and violence in the Sahel have become a self-perpetuating reality over recent years. Jake Lyell/Alamy Stock Photo

Tensions between ethnic groups, for example the Fulani and Dogon, have been aggravated by decades of cattle-herding and horticulture relocation as well as migration into urban centres.

Violent clashes over grassland, water sources and local infrastructure have become common.

Scorched earth is only fertile as a recruitment ground for violent and extremist organisations. Terrorist groups such as Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa (ISWA), Jamaat Nusratul Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Katiba Macina pose a threat in the Sahel, often with the intent and capabilities to mount complex attacks against government and civilian targets.

Arctic militarisation

In the Arctic, melting sea ice is amplifying strategic competition as the accessibility of resources improves, particularly mineral and fossil fuel deposits.

New trade routes are emerging, the Northern Sea Route (NSR), for example, is projected to rival Suez Canal traffic and shift trade flows between Asia and Europe. Russia has declared the NSR “a national transportation corridor” as a means to ensure exclusive access to it.

Others, such as China and the US, however, have indicated that they regard it as an “international domain”. In reference to the “Polar Silk Road”, China has started to refer to itself as a “near Arctic state”, something that, in absolute terms, is geographically false.

Assorted Arctic and non-Arctic countries are building ice-breakers to capitalise on these new economic realities.

In turn, the high north is facing an unprecedented process of militarisation.

Russia is investing heavily in defence infrastructure and performing its power through the presence of nuclear submarines, MiG-31 Foxhound aircraft flights over the north pole and into US and Scandinavian airspace, and exercises of their Arctic Motorised Brigade.

In concert, this posturing informs Russia’s various competitors that it is present and, if required, will use force to defend its strategic interests.

A USAF B1-B Lancer, part of a deployment of bombers to Norway to operate in the strategically important Arctic region. Abaca Press/Alamy Stock Photo

Nato has been similarly present in the contest.

US president Joe Biden, for example, has relaunched Arctic Warrior, a cold war training programme – and, in early 2021, dispatched B-1 Lancer strategic bombers to Norway.

This brought Russian military targets in the Arctic and beyond within reach. In response and to signal a posture of competition, Russia sent a missile cruiser from its Northern Fleet to the area.

Carbon bootprints

Climate change also amplifies national security risks.

There are physical risks. Many coastal naval bases are, for example, at risk from sea level rises.

There are liability risks. Countries, particularly those in the global south, are going to seek damages from others for loss and damage resulting in economic, physical and cultural harms.

On a global scale, the greenhouse gas emissions of militaries contribute immensely to the climate crisis.

And, as the UK secretary of state for defence, Ben Wallace made clear at COP26, the need to reduce military emissions must be part of the route to sustainability.

His comments were in line with the ambitions presented in the Ministry of Defence’s Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach.

Action has followed words. In the UK, the army has invested in prototype electric hybrid armoured, reconnaissance and logistic vehicles, with significantly reduced emissions and improved performance.

The electric trucks that transport a field hospital can now supply power for up to 12 hours, providing the equivalent of nine diesel generators. New buildings on the military’s training estate are also net negative, supplied from renewable sources such as anaerobic digesters and solar farms.

The Royal Air Force recently achieved a world first flight powered by 100% synthetic fuel, authorised the use of 50% sustainable aviation fuel in all its aircraft, and plans to order electric-powered planes for training. The Royal Navy, meanwhile, is incorporating alternative-fuelled sustainability into new ship design.

In addressing their carbon bootprint, militaries enhance their role in sustainable security.

Moreover, as agents of “climate diplomacy”, they can influence positive change in other nations and government departments.

This is becoming a vital role in a warming and increasingly insecure world.

Links

• Climate Change & (In)Security Project
• A military perspective on climate change could bridge the gap between believers and doubters
• US military is a bigger polluter than as many as 140 countries – shrinking this war machine is a must
• A military view on climate change: It’s eroding our national security and we should prepare for it
• How the world’s militaries hide their huge carbon emissions
• (CNN) Senior Pentagon Official Warns The US Military Is 'Not Ready' For Climate Change
• (Scientific American) Military Operations Will Be Strained By Climate Change
• (UK) British Ministry Of Defense Announces Plans To Address Climate Change
• (AU) Government Wants Military Response To Climate Change Breakdown
• (AU) 'Dystopian Future': Climate Change To Force Review Of Military's Role
• Climate Change Poses A ‘Direct Threat’ To Australia’s National Security. It Must Be A Political Priority

(AU SMH) South Australia Breaks Record By Running For A Week On Renewable Energy

Sydney Morning Herald - Nick O'Malley

South Australia sourced an average of just over 100 per cent of the electricity it needed from renewable power for 6½ days leading up to December 29 last year – a record for the state and perhaps for comparable energy grids around the world.

The state’s previous record was just over three days, says Geoff Eldridge, an energy analyst who runs the website NEMlog.com.au, which tracks the operations of the National Energy Market covering Australia’s east-coast states and South Australia.

The Hornsdale Power Reservation in South Australia, where tech firm Tesla has installed a huge battery.

His analysis shows that for the six days identified, the state produced on average 101 per cent of the energy it needed from wind, rooftop solar and solar farms, with just a fraction of the energy the state used being drawn from gas, in order to keep the grid stable.

At times during the period, slightly less renewable energy was available and at other times renewable capacity was higher than needed, he says.

Bruce Mountain, director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre, said he believed that aside from some small island grids such as those in Hawaii and Tasmania, it was likely that South Australia’s six-day run on renewables was a record for a grid supporting an advanced economy.

During the unprecedented 156-hour renewable run, the share of wind in total energy supplied averaged 64.4 per cent, while rooftop solar averaged 29.5 per cent and utility-scale solar averaged 6.2 per cent, clean energy website RenewEconomy.com.au reported, using Mr Eldridge’s data.

While Australia often receives poor international press regarding its climate policies, the nation’s rapid uptake of renewables is also receiving international attention.

A recent episode of the podcast The Energy Gang, produced in the US by global energy consultants Wood Mackenzie, focused on Australia’s success in incorporating renewables into its grid to total 24 per cent, highlighting the uptake of grid-scale batteries that both store renewable energy when it is not needed and help stabilise a system originally built to transmit power from huge providers such as coal power stations.

Fereidoon Sioshansi, a US-based energy analyst, says Australia has driven down the costs of renewables and in particular solar power, not only with so-called feed-in tariffs, which leave owners of solar systems paid well for the power they feed back to the grid, but also efficient regulation.

In parts of the US, state governments have introduced fees that slow solar uptake after lobbying from utility companies, he says.

Energy prices

Renewable energy to drive down household power bills over next three years

Figures from the International Renewable Energy Agency show the cost of installing residential solar in Australia is similar to that of nations with far cheaper labour costs such as Thailand and Malaysia, and is much cheaper than in the US and Europe.

Professor Mountain said Dr Sioshansi was one of many international energy experts who had contacted him to ask about Australian and South Australian energy policy.

 Professor Mountain said despite missteps over the years, South Australia’s success in renewables was due to a consistent bipartisan determination to speed up energy transition.

He said the state had advantages in its transition because it was a comparatively small market, with good connections to Victoria.

Mr Eldridge said his data showed significant “curtailment” during the six-day period, meaning renewables providers did not generate as much power as they could have.

This suggests progress is being made towards the SA government’s plan to become a net exporter of renewable power via interconnectors and a future green hydrogen industry, he said.

Links

• (AU RenewEconomy) South Australia Sets Smashing New Renewables Record In Final Days Of 2021
• (AU New Daily) SA Leads On Climate Change Action As States And Territories Pick Up Federal Government’s Slack
• (AU ABC) Scott Morrison Reveals $1bn Energy Deal With South Australian Government
• (AU) Against The Odds, South Australia Is A Renewable Energy Powerhouse. How On Earth Did They Do It?
• South Australia On Track To Meet 75% Renewables Target Liberals Promised To Scrap
• Life After Coal: The South Australian City Leading The Way

(AU ABC) Will Climate Change Spell The End Of Coastal Living As We Know It?

ABC News - Maani Truu

Sea level rise of close to a metre has been predicted by the end of the century. (ABC News)

When Chris Rogers returned to the NSW Central Coast after a stint living overseas, he was eager to embrace the quintessential Australian lifestyle — a home where his kids could swim in the ocean whenever they liked and he could walk along the beach he loves every day. 

But more than a year after powerful swells battered Wamberal Beach, causing massive erosion beneath the waterfront properties, he's been left fearing his home could be washed away in the next storm surge.

"We've worked our whole life, this is our family home, and to look at your kids and not be able to comfort them is scary," Rogers says.

"It's no different to someone sitting in a bushfire zone with a beautiful home. They love the bush and they love living there, and … the fire burns their home down. All we want to do is be able to protect our homes and our families."

A year ago a massive storm caused severe coastal erosion at Wamberal Beach. (ABC Central Coast: Sofie Wainwright)

Rogers, 47, feels lucky compared with his neighbours: some were forced to evacuate when their homes partially collapsed in the storm. The home where Rogers has lived with his wife and two children since 2016 remains intact, but his backyard has "sunk" where sand from the beach was washed away.

"Every time there's heavy rain, everyone is having more and more of their bank starting to collapse," he says. "If there are ... multiple east coast lows that hit this beach at the right tide, you could have as many as 10 homes going."

Rogers was attracted to the area by the relaxed pace of coastal living. Thanks to a rise in remote working as a result of the pandemic, more people than ever are making a similar decision to leave large cities and work from regional locations. 

But this pilgrimage is taking place against a backdrop of climate change, and many of its impacts are already being felt — not just in Wamberal, but all along Australia's coast.

Sea-level rise a reality

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — the most comprehensive report on climate change ever released — estimates a sea level rise of up to 55 centimetres by the end of the century, while not ruling out a 2-metre increase in the same period. 

IPCC report and Australia

The latest IPCC report does not make for particularly uplifting reading. But if you are keen to delve further into the details, it does say quite a bit about Australia. Read more

This would have catastrophic consequences for hundreds of thousands of Australians living along coastlines and waterways.

In 2009, more than a decade before the IPCC report, the federal government's now-dissolved Department of Climate Change published a report measuring the risk to Australia's coastline — the first and only time it did so for the entire nation.

The report identified between 157,000 and 247,600 individual residential buildings at risk of inundation if sea levels were to rise by 1.1 metres. The replacement value for these houses, they estimated, was up to $63 billion.

Rogers, who has been leading a residents group agitating for a wall to be built to protect the coastline from further erosion, sees his home, and those of his neighbours, as the "first line of defence" against rising sea levels.

"We're working really hard to try and work with the council or the government to come up with potential solutions that protect not only us but all the infrastructure behind us," he says. "Obviously I want to protect the home, but I also want to protect the beach."

He hopes any protective action taken in Wamberal — "if we can do things right" — could act as a blueprint for other coastal towns feeling the impacts of climate change. "It's not just us," he says. "The exposure is massive, really massive, and concerns are simply growing."

How big is the problem?

Australia is a nation built on the ocean, literally and figuratively. More than 80 per cent of the population already lives within 50 kilometres of a coastline and the idealised beach lifestyle occupies a prime position in Australia's national psyche.

And with the rapid rise of remote working, forced by health measures introduced during the pandemic, executive director of the Australian Coastal Council's Association Alan Stokes predicts the number of people seeking a slower pace and water views is only set to grow.

Collaroy Beach Club on Sydney's northern beaches was damaged by a high tide and low-pressure system in 2016.(ABC News: Amanda Hoh)

"We're going to notice a big difference in the findings of the 2021 census," he says. "I think we'll find that population levels in coastal areas — particularly those within, or a little beyond, commuter distance from the capital cities — are going to see enormous growth."

This is despite "at least a metre [of sea-level rise], probably more" already locked in, according to David Wainwright, a coastal engineer of almost 25 years. "The thing is the timing: if it's going to affect your property in 100 years, is that something you worry about now?"

The impacts of sea-level rise will not be limited to beachfront homes, but also properties in low-lying areas around estuaries or lakes. They are at risk of what's called coastal inundation. "As the mean sea level rise goes up in the ocean, you're also going to have the water level going up inside the estuary by a similar amount," Dr Wainwright says.

It's this latter group that will experience more damage in the coming decades. "This is a creeping issue that over time is going to inundate more and more frequently — and for certain properties, it might get to the stage where your property might be inundated by tides several times a year, even more. How are we going to manage that?"

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Stokes believes the gradual creep of climate change has lured home buyers into a false sense of security.

"There's this perception that the worst of it will be felt in 2100, so someone buying a house now in an area that's likely to be impacted by 2100 is saying to themselves 'well, you know, that's so far in the future it probably won't affect me now'," he says.

"But there will be increasing impacts during the period leading up to that."

If home-buyers aren't worried, the nation's financial institutions certainly are.

In September, the Reserve Bank of Australia released a report warning property values in climate change hot spots could soon take a hit, leaving banks vulnerable in the case of default. 

It warned that about 3.5 per cent of dwellings in Australia already fell under the international definition of "high-risk", but that long-term climate change risk wasn't being reflected in property values. South-east Queensland and northern New South Wales had the largest number of homes at risk of coastal inundation, the report found.

"If current values do not fully reflect the longer-term risks of climate change, housing prices could decline, leaving banks with less protection than expected against borrower default," it said.

What it means for property buyers

When it comes to the impact of climate change on the property market, Claire Ibrahim, a director at Deloitte Access Economics, says the Reserve Bank is right to expect material declines in housing prices over time in high-risk regions. 

But, she adds, this is largely separate from how buyers will value property in the short term.

"Because people don't have the information at the moment that clearly tells them with a level of certainty how it will change potentially for the negative because of climate, I think they do assume that it will hold to an extent," she says.

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"You have homes that reflect exactly the value of what people are willing to pay for them, but is it the right risk equation within that? No, it's probably not.

"But would you call it overvalued? No, not necessarily. Because you could, in theory, sell it tomorrow and still make money from it."

But eventually, as banks increasingly start to factor climate risk in, high insurance premiums will force buyers to reconsider the value of a property.

"It really does alter the equation of how we value living by the water," Ibrahim says. "And it starts to change the assumption that probably holds true for now that these properties will always maintain or increase their value."

When will that tipping point come? Climate analyst Karl Mallon has set about trying to answer that question. His company, Climate Valuation, seeks to provide data on the actual risk of climate change to property buyers and the banks that lend to them.

Up until now, he says, damage from sea level increase has been relatively rare. That's because most buildings have been constructed above the current sea level and set back from the coastline, forming what he describes as a "buffer".

He believes the impact of sea level rise will be mild for the next two or three decades, after which coastal inundation will steadily worsen. "Coastal inundation will be one of the worst impacts [from climate change] we're facing in Australia," he says.

Should we reconsider coastal living?

According to the experts, this comes down to timing and whether the long-term risk is worth the short-term benefits of living by the water.

"Time really matters," Ibrahim says. "When [people] make decisions, it can be really difficult to factor in time and risk in a way that's meaningful for how you value things."

While the impacts are already being felt in some areas, such as Wamberal, it is harder to quantify in regions where the danger is less obvious. 

By Climate Valuation's measure, about one in 20 properties are at high risk of flooding and coastal inundation. Dr Mallon predicts this could increase to one in 10 properties over the course of the century.

Without major works to protect them, these properties face the possibility of becoming uninsurable. "You're going to have people sitting on a house which they can't defend, they can't insure, and they can't sell," he says.

Governments across the world have embarked on large-scale engineering works to stop water encroaching on properties, but Dr Mallon believes Australian governments are less likely to go down that route because many at-risk areas have small populations relative to the high cost of intervening.

"In the end, there will be suburbs that will be untenable in this century," he says. "It's likely state governments and councils will just give up."

Meanwhile, Dr Mallon recommends prospective home buyers research whether a property is in an at-risk area, and if it is, make sure their insurance policy covers flooding and inundation — often described as "actions of the sea".

But after a quarter of a century surveying Australia's coastlines, Dr Wainwright argues we must shift our thinking. "A lot of it has to do with this assumption that property is permanent," Dr Wainwright says. "When you're talking about the coastline, that's not the case."

Links

• (AU) Updated Mapping Shows Aussie Beaches And Homes At Risk From Sea Level Rise
• (AU SMH) Climate Damage Starting To Hit Us Where It Hurts - On The Beach
• (AU SMH) Even 1.5C Warming Will Still Leave World’s Coasts Exposed To Extremes
• (AU) Big Surf Flips Boulders Across Road In Port Fairy, Reigniting Climate Change, Coastal Erosion Concerns
• What does the latest IPCC report mean for Australia?
• New report finds $30B needed to protect coastal communities
• “There are many areas which are very vulnerable”: how rising sea levels will change Sydney
• Climate Change Impact Series: Actions of the Sea and Future Risks (pdf)

(AU The Conversation) Green Hydrogen Is Coming - And These Australian Regions Are Well Placed To Build Our New Export Industry

The Conversation - Steven Percy

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Author Steven Percy is Senior Research Fellow, Victorian Hydrogen Hub, Swinburne University of Technology

You might remember hearing a lot about green hydrogen last year, as global pressure mounted on Australia to take stronger action on climate change ahead of the COP26 Glasgow summit last November.

The government predicts green hydrogen exports and domestic use could be worth up to A$50 billion within 30 years, helping the world achieve deep decarbonisation.

But how close are we really to a green hydrogen industry? And which states are best placed to host it? My research shows that as of next year, and based on where the cheapest renewables are, the best places to produce green hydrogen are far north Queensland and Tasmania.

As ever more renewable energy pours into our grid, this picture will change. By the end of the decade, the north Queensland coast could become the hydrogen powerhouse. By 2040, dirt-cheap solar should make inland areas across New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and South Australia the lowest cost producers.

Renewable energy you can store and transport

Why is there so much buzz around green hydrogen? In short, because it offers us a zero emissions way to transport energy. Take cheap renewable energy and use it to split water into hydrogen and oxygen using an electrolyser. Store the hydrogen on trucks, ship it overseas, or send it by pipeline. Then use the hydrogen for transport, manufacturing or electricity production.

Pathways for the production and use of green hydrogen. Author provided

All the technology exists – it’s the cost holding the industry back at present. That’s where Australia and its wealth of cheap renewable energy comes in.

Making hydrogen is nothing new – it has a long history of use in fertiliser production and oil refining. But until now, the main source for hydrogen was gas, a fossil fuel.

In the last few years, however, there has been a sudden surge of interest and investment in green hydrogen, and new technology pathways have emerged to produce cheap green hydrogen. As global decarbonisation gathers steam, Japan, South Korea and parts of Europe are looking for clean alternatives to replace the role fossil fuels have played in their economies.

Australia is exceptionally well placed to deliver these alternatives, with world-beating renewable resources and ports set up for our existing fossil fuel exports, such as coal and LNG.

In 2019, we sold almost $64 billion of black coal, with most going to Japan, South Korea, India and China. As these countries decarbonise, the coal industry will shrink. Green hydrogen could be an excellent replacement.

How competitive is Australian hydrogen?

At present, Australia is a long way from producing green hydrogen cheap enough to compete with fossil fuels, given we seem to have no appetite for taxing carbon pollution.

Does that mean it’s a non-starter? Hardly. It was only a decade ago sceptics ridiculed solar and wind as too expensive. They’ve gone awfully quiet as renewable prices fell, and fell, and fell – as tracked by the International Renewable Energy Agency. Now renewables are cheaper than coal. Battery storage, too, has fallen drastically in price. The same forces are at work on the key technology we need – cheaper electrolysers.

By 2040, the CSIRO predicts an 83% fall in electrolyser costs, according to its Gencost 2021-22 report. By contrast, gas-derived hydrogen with carbon capture is predicted to reduce in cost only slightly. That means green hydrogen is likely to capture much of the market for hydrogen from 2030 onwards.

Which states could benefit?

My research with the Victorian Hydrogen Hub) shows as of next year, the lowest cost location for green hydrogen would be Far North Queensland ($4.1/kg) and Tasmania ($4.4/kg) due to high renewable resources.

But this picture will change. By 2030, northern Queensland’s coastal regions could be the Australian hydrogen powerhouse due to a combination of cheap solar and access to ports. Western Australia and the Northern Territory could also have similar advantages, though the modelling for these areas has not yet been done.

As solar energy and electrolyser costs continue to fall, new states could enter the green hydrogen economy. In CSIRO’s cost predictions, electricity from solar is predicted to become much cheaper than wind by 2040. This means sunny areas like central and northern Queensland ($1.7/kg) and inland NSW, Victoria and South Australia ($1.8/kg) could be the best locations for green hydrogen production.

In making these estimates, I do not consider supply chain and storage infrastructure required to deliver the hydrogen. Transport could account for between $0.05/kg to $0.75/kg depending on distance.

The levelised cost of hydrogen at renewable energy zones in Australia for 2023, 2030 and 2040. (source: Steven Percy, Victorian Hydrogen Hub)

Comparing my modelling to price thresholds set out in the National Hydrogen Strategy indicates we can produce green hydrogen for trucking at a similar cost to diesel within four years. Fertiliser would take longer, becoming competitive by 2040.

Does our dry country have the water resources for green hydrogen?

If we achieved the $50 billion green hydrogen industry the government is aiming for, how much water would it consume? Surprisingly little. It would take only around 4% of the water we used for our crops and pastures in 2019-20 to generate an export industry that size – 225,000 megalitres.

Much more water than this will be freed up as coal-fired power stations exit the grid. In Queensland and NSW alone, these power stations consume around 158,000 megalitres a year according to a 2020 report prepared for the Australian Conservation Foundation. Coal mining in these two states takes an additional 224,000 megalitres.

As the cost of renewable energy falls and falls, we will also be able to desalinate seawater along our coasts to produce hydrogen. We estimate this would account for only about 1% of the cost of producing hydrogen, based on Australian Water Association desalination cost estimates.

How can we get there faster?

This decade, we must plan for our new hydrogen economy. Government and industry will need to develop and support new hydrogen infrastructure projects to produce, distribute, use and export hydrogen at scale.

We’re already seeing promising signs of progress, as major mining companies move strongly into green hydrogen.

Now we need governments across Australia to rapidly get optimal policy and regulations in place to allow the industry to develop and thrive.

Links

• Is renewable hydrogen Australia's answer to net zero emissions?
• Australia's clean hydrogen revolution is a path to prosperity – but it must be powered by renewable energy
• Why green hydrogen — but not grey — could help solve climate change
• Green hydrogen beats blue on emissions and financial cost
• (NZ Herald) Green Hydrogen: New Zealand Scientists Edge Closer To Climate-Friendly Fuel Future
• (AU ABC) Green Hydrogen Electrolysers To Be Built In Regional Australia With Government Backing
• What is green hydrogen, how does green ammonia fit in, and could they pave Australia's way to a renewable future?