Fossil fuel behemoth: The climate cost of Australia’s bipartisan addiction to coal and gas

RenewEconomy - Royce Kurmelovs

AAP Image/Supplied by Queensland Fire and Emergency Services

Exporting Harm Climate Toll Australia’s Fossil Fuel Expansion Key Findings Australia’s fossil fuel exports have doubled twice in the past three decades—from 1990 to 2005 andagain from 2005 to today. 48% of the world’s internationally traded metallurgical coal and 19% of thermal coal originate from Australia, making it the largest and second-largest exporter of each, respectively. Australia’s liquefied gas exports have increased seven-fold since 2005, with the country now producing 20% of all internationally traded LNG. Since 2021, despite global warnings, Australia has approved 30 new coal and gas projects under Australia’s Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act with more approved under the offshore oil and gas regime. Australia’s fossil fuel pipeline will add more still. A conservative selection of the projects currently being planned in Australia would create as much as 18.6 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions—equivalent to 6.2% of the world’s remaining 1.5°C carbon budget. Australia’s exported fossil fuel emissions will be 3.3 times larger than its domestic emissions within five years.

Political bipartisanship across successive Australian governments has overseen a massive expansion of oil, gas and coal production despite promises to act on climate change over the last three decades, a new report suggests.

The report, Exporting Harm: The Climate Toll of Australia’s Fossil fuel Expansion, by the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, a diplomatic and civil society campaign to create a treaty to stop fossil fuel exploration, expansion and set up a managed phase-out of oil, gas and coal use, to examine Australia’s track record on climate change.

It found that despite its rhetoric, Australia has worked to establish itself as “a fossil fuel behemoth” over the past three decades since the International Panel on Climate Change released its First Assessment report in 1990, with the country exporting increasing amounts of fossil fuels even as its domestic emissions have fallen.

In the fifteen years after the release of the First Assessment Report, the burden of Australia’s fossil fuel exports doubled. It doubled again between 2005 and 2020, driven by a massive increase in coal and gas exports.

During this time the Australian government was variously led by both Labor and the Coalition, in what Michael Poland, campaign manager for the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative in Northern New South Wales said was “a bipartisan consensus on expanding coal and gas.”

“At least Russia is somewhat honest about being a major fossil fuel producer,” Poland said. “I think for me that fossil fuel exports have doubled twice in the past three decades really just shows how deeply ingrained bipartisan support for the fossil fuel industry is.

“Both major parties have had a bipartisan position on expanding oil and gas. In the wake of years of cyclones and floods and heatwaves, it’s really time to break that repetitive cycle.”

With the focus of international agreements like the Paris Climate Agreement focussed on the domestic use of oil, gas and coal, Poland said the US, Canada and Australia have been able to rely on the “drug dealers defence” – idea that exporters are just filling a demand and that if they don’t sell a particular fossil fuel, someone else will – to justify continuing fossil fuel expansion.

Poland, whose family live in northern New South Wales and who have been without power since Thursday just before Tropical Cyclone Alfred made landfall, said the findings were particularly “surreal given the circumstances.”

“The thing I’ve been thinking about at night while I’ve had no power is that the Albanese government has approved 19 fossil fuel projects since the 2022 Lismore floods and that the PM this week could come back to Lismore and not take responsibility for the impact those decisions are having on events like this and communities like ours,” he said.

The report found 48% of the world’s internationally-traded metallurgical coal and 19% of thermal coal originated in Australia, making the country the second-largest exporter of each, respectively.

Australia’s LNG exports have increased seven-fold since 2005, with the country now producing 20% of all internationally-traded LNG.

Meanwhile the country currently has 30 new coal and gas projects at various levels of development, with a conservative estimate suggesting this could add 18.6bn tonnes of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

The possibility that a cyclone such as Tropical Cyclone Alfred might make landfall in South East Queensland was previously described in 2021 as a “nightmare scenario” by the Australian insurance industry owing to high population density in the region.

Australia has been increasingly rocked by large natural disasters likely to have been made worse by climate change in recent months and years, including bushfires outside Perth and in regional Victoria, a developing drought in South Australia, widespread flooding across New South Wales in 2022 and the Black Summer Bushfires.

As of 2021, climate change was costing the country $39bn a year, with this figure expected to rise to $73bn by 2060.

Currently 16 governments have endorsed a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty including the governments of Colombia and Pakistan, and Pacific countries such as Fiji, Nauru, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tuvalu, Vanuatu and Tonga.

Links

• REPORT Exporting Harm: The Climate Toll of Australia’s Fossil Fuel Expansion
• A fossil fuel behemoth: Report exposes Australia’s hypocrisy in wake of Cyclone Alfred
• Fortescue supports global call for a Fossil Fuel Treaty to deliver Real Zero emissions target
• Report finds G20 reserves could blow 2ºC carbon budget despite wealthiest nations being ready to transition
• Open letter from over 100 artists, scientists and climate champions calls for global plan to phase out fossil fuels amid bumpy COP29 talks on finance goal
• Albanese pledges another $750 in funds for green industry and metals
• Coalition refuses to back Australia and Pacific Island nations hosting 2026 UN climate summit
• Energy Insiders Podcast: Donald Trump’s war on climate, energy and science

AUSTRALIA: Climate Change Weekly Review - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Sydney heatwave, bushfires, seawall construction, renewable energy.

Following is a review of climate change related events in Australia for the week ending 16/3/2025:

1. Heatwave and Bushfire Risks in New South Wales

New South Wales experienced a severe heatwave, prompting authorities to issue a total fire ban for Sydney due to elevated bushfire risks.

Temperatures soared, increasing concerns about potential fires across the region. Link

2. Debate Over Seawall Construction in Collaroy and Narrabeen

A seawall was constructed between Collaroy and Narrabeen, suburbs on Sydney's northern beaches, in response to significant erosion that threatened local properties. 

This development has sparked debate among residents and experts regarding its long-term effectiveness and environmental impact. 

Some coastal scientists and environmental groups warn that such structures might increase erosion and alter beach dynamics, while some residents feel it offers temporary security. Link

3. Criticism of the Coalition's Nuclear Energy Proposal

Dr. Jonathan Pershing, a former U.S. special envoy for climate change, criticised the Federal Coalition's proposal to adopt nuclear energy, labelling it the most expensive option compared to alternatives like solar power paired with battery storage. 

He highlighted the global trend away from new nuclear projects due to high costs and lengthy implementation timelines, suggesting that renewable energy sources offer more cost-effective and reliable solutions. Link

4. Sydney's Record-Breaking Heat

Sydney faced potentially record-breaking heat, with temperatures reaching unprecedented levels for this time of year. 

The city anticipated relief with an upcoming cool change, but the unusual heat underscores the increasing frequency of extreme weather events linked to climate change. Link

5. Australia's Progress Towards Climate Goals

The latest Quarterly Update of Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory reported emissions at 440.6 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent for the year up to June 2024, marking a 0.7% decrease compared to the previous year. 

This reduction aligns with Australia's ongoing efforts to meet its climate commitments and transition towards a low-carbon economy. Link

Links

• Could a tropical cyclone hit Sydney? What climate change science does — and doesn't — say about future storms
• 'We didn't want it': Wall divides beach town
• Coalition's nuclear plan most expensive option for Australia, former US climate official says 
• Could a tropical cyclone hit Sydney? What climate change science does — and doesn't — say about future storms
• Climate change is a health issue no political party can ignore
• Evocative new exhibitions tackle climate change
• Help shape Victoria’s next climate change strategy

Australia Climate Change 2025: Questions and Answers - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

QUESTIONS

• What are the most recent climate trends in Australia (e.g., temperature, rainfall, extreme weather events)?
• How have these trends changed compared to previous years?
• What regions are experiencing the most significant climate shifts?

ANSWERS

Current Climate Trends

Australia's climate has undergone notable changes in recent years, characterised by rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and an increase in extreme weather events.

Temperature Trends

Since national records began in 1910, Australia's average surface air temperature has risen by approximately 1.51 ± 0.23 °C, with most of this warming occurring since 1950. Each decade since 1950 has been warmer than the preceding one, aligning with global warming trends. LINK

Rainfall Patterns

Rainfall trends in Australia exhibit regional and seasonal variations:

• Northern Australia: An increase in rainfall has been observed over recent decades.

• Southwestern Australia: A decline in rainfall, particularly during the cool season, has been recorded.

• Southeastern Australia: A decrease in cool-season rainfall has been noted, affecting water availability and agricultural productivity. LINK 

Extreme Weather Events

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have risen:

• Heatwaves: There has been an increase in the number of extreme heat events. LINK 

• Bushfires: Longer fire seasons with heightened bushfire risks have been observed. LINK 

• Heavy Rainfall and Flooding: More intense heavy rainfall events have led to increased flooding in various regions. LINK

Regional Climate Shifts

Certain regions are experiencing more pronounced climate shifts:

• Southeastern Australia: This area has seen a significant increase in extreme heat events and a decrease in cool-season rainfall, contributing to prolonged droughts and heightened bushfire risks. LINK 

• Southwestern Australia: A marked reduction in rainfall, particularly during the cool season, has impacted water resources and agriculture. LINK

• Northern Australia: An increase in rainfall has been observed over recent decades. LINK 

These trends underscore the pressing need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change across Australia's diverse regions. 

QUESTIONS

• How is climate change affecting Australia's unique ecosystems (e.g., Great Barrier Reef, the bush, rainforests)?
• What species are at the greatest risk due to climate change?
• How have bushfires and droughts changed in frequency and severity? 

ANSWERS

Impact on Environment & Biodiversity

Climate change is profoundly impacting Australia's unique ecosystems, leading to significant environmental challenges.

Great Barrier Reef

The Great Barrier Reef faces severe threats from climate change:

• Coral Bleaching: Rising sea temperatures have caused four mass coral bleaching events in the past seven years, reducing shallow water coral reefs by up to 50%. LINK

• Severe Weather Events: Increased frequency and intensity of cyclones and storms have caused significant damage to coral structures. LINK

• Habitat Changes: Warmer waters are forcing marine species to migrate southward, disrupting existing ecosystems and increasing competition for resources. LINK

Bush

Australian bush is experiencing heightened vulnerability:

• Deforestation: An average of 620,000 hectares of forest and the bush have been cleared annually over the past five years, weakening natural defences against climate change. LINK 

• Increased Bushfires: Climate change has led to more frequent and intense bushfires, devastating vast areas of the bush. LINK

Rainforests

Tropical rainforests, particularly in northeastern Australia, are under threat:

• Species Extinction: Climate change poses significant extinction risks for species in these rainforests. LINK

Species at Greatest Risk

Several Australian species are highly vulnerable to climate change:

• Amphibians: Species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems face increased extinction risks. LINK

• Marine Species: Starfish, sea snails, and flying fish are increasingly vulnerable to climate change-related stressors. LINK

• Iconic Species: Green turtles, ringtail possums, and black cockatoos are among those threatened by climate change. LINK

Changes in Bushfires and Droughts

Climate change has altered the frequency and severity of bushfires and droughts:

• Bushfires: There has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of bushfires, leading to significant wildlife losses and habitat destruction. LINK

• Droughts: Rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns have contributed to more severe drought conditions, affecting both ecosystems and human communities. LINK 

These changes underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate action to protect Australia's unique ecosystems and biodiversity.

QUESTIONS

• What are the latest Australian government policies to address climate change in 2025?
• Has Australia met its emissions reduction targets?
• What state-level initiatives are leading the way in climate action?

ANSWERS

Government & Policy Response

Australia has implemented several policies to address climate change, focusing on emissions reduction and adaptation strategies.

National Policies and Emissions Reduction Targets

• Climate Change Act 2022: Enacted in September 2022, this legislation formalised Australia's commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43% from 2005 levels by 2030 and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. LINK

• Powering Australia Plan: This comprehensive strategy aims to create jobs, lower energy bills, and reduce emissions by boosting renewable energy. It emphasises Australian leadership, support for industry and agriculture, and advancements in the electricity and transport sectors. LINK

• Mandatory Climate Reporting: In September 2024, the Australian government passed legislation requiring large and medium-sized companies to disclose climate-related risks and opportunities, including greenhouse gas emissions across their value chains, starting as early as 2025 for the largest entities. LINK

Progress Toward Emissions Targets

Australia's progress toward its emissions reduction targets presents a mixed picture:

• National Emissions: Current policies are projected to achieve emission reductions between 17% and 21% below 2005 levels by 2030, excluding land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. This indicates that, without additional measures, Australia may fall short of its 43% reduction target. LINK

• Climate Change Performance Index: Australia ranks 52nd among countries, receiving a medium rating in greenhouse gas emissions, low in renewable energy and climate policy, and very low in energy use. LINK

State-Level Initiatives

Australian states and territories have implemented ambitious climate policies:

• Net-Zero Targets: As of late 2024, all states and territories have set targets to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 or sooner, with many outlining bold interim goals to accelerate progress. Combined, these targets are estimated to contribute to a 40–44% reduction in Australia’s emissions from 2005 levels by 2030, aligning with national objectives. LINK  

• Victoria: The state has set world-leading targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions and achieve net-zero emissions by 2045, with a confirmed 2035 target announced in May 2023. LINK  

These developments underscore a concerted effort across federal and state levels to address climate change, though challenges remain in meeting national emissions reduction targets.

QUESTIONS

• How much of Australia's energy now comes from renewable sources?
• What progress has been made in phasing out coal and gas?
• What innovations in clean energy (solar, wind, hydrogen) are emerging?

ANSWERS

Renewable Energy & Emissions

Australia has made notable strides in renewable energy adoption, though challenges persist in phasing out fossil fuels and advancing clean energy innovations.

Renewable Energy Contribution

As of early 2025, renewable energy sources account for approximately 39.4% of Australia's total electricity generation. LINK This marks a significant increase from 35% in 2023, with solar energy leading at 16%, followed by wind (12%) and hydro (6%). LINK Projections indicate that by the end of 2025, renewable generation will be more than three times greater than in 2015, comprising around 48% of overall electricity generation. LINK

Progress in Phasing Out Coal and Gas

Australia's transition away from coal and gas has been gradual:

• Coal: The nation has not committed to a specific coal phase-out date. However, coal production is expected to decline sharply from 2027 due to the planned closure of 24 mines. LINK Despite this, Australia continues to plan for increased fossil fuel production, ranking among the top ten countries with the largest developed coal and gas reserves. LINK

• Gas: There is currently no comprehensive strategy or timeline for phasing out gas. Government projections indicate that liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and export will continue, reflecting an ongoing reliance on gas within the energy sector. LINK

Innovations in Clean Energy

Australia is witnessing significant advancements in clean energy technologies:

• Solar and Wind: Investment in large-scale wind and solar projects reached a six-year peak in early 2025, signalling robust growth in these sectors. LINK

• Energy Storage: The energy storage sector has experienced substantial growth, with large-scale installations increasing by 573 MW, reaching a total capacity of 2,047 MWh. LINK 

• Hydrogen: Australia is actively developing its hydrogen industry, focusing on both domestic applications and export opportunities. The country aims to become a global leader in green hydrogen production, leveraging its abundant renewable energy resources to produce hydrogen through electrolysis.

These developments underscore Australia's commitment to expanding its renewable energy portfolio and fostering innovation in clean energy technologies, despite the complexities associated with reducing dependence on fossil fuels.

QUESTIONS

• How are farmers adapting to changing climate conditions?
• What is the current state of water resources in key regions?

ANSWERS

Impact on Agriculture & Water Security

Australian farmers are actively adapting to changing climate conditions through various strategies:

• Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction: Industry leaders advocate for government support to help farmers invest in battery energy storage systems. This investment aims to lower energy costs, reduce reliance on diesel generators, and enhance resilience against extreme weather events. LINK

• Technological Innovations: The integration of advanced technologies, such as autonomous machinery, is becoming more prevalent in agriculture. This shift emphasises the growing importance of software engineering in farming practices LINK

• Business Adaptations: Farmers are considering changes in business practices, including geographical relocation to areas with more favourable climatic conditions and diversifying or altering their enterprises to better suit the evolving environment. LINK

Current State of Water Resources

Australia's water resources are experiencing variability across different regions:

• Rainfall and Streamflows: Between July 2017 and June 2019, much of Australia returned to drought conditions, with widespread rainfall deficiencies and higher-than-average temperatures. This period saw below-average streamflows in most rivers across southeastern Australia, with some recording their lowest flows on record, particularly in the northern Murray–Darling Basin. LINK

• Groundwater Resources: The Great Artesian Basin underlies much of northeast Australia, serving as a crucial groundwater resource. In contrast, Western Australia relies on local aquifers, which generally have low productivity LINK

Impact of Climate Change on Food Prices and Production

Climate change has influenced both food production and prices in Australia:

• Food Production: The agricultural sector has faced challenges due to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, such as floods and fires, impacting the nearly 86,000 farms across the country. LINK

• Food Prices: Extreme weather events have led to significant financial losses for farmers, such as the mass dumping of milk due to flooding in New South Wales and Queensland. These disruptions contribute to increased food prices. LINK

Additionally, global factors, including extreme weather events affecting coffee-producing regions, have led to rising coffee prices in Australia, with expectations that a regular cup could reach $7 within months. LINK

These developments underscore the need for adaptive strategies in agriculture and effective water resource management to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Australia's food security and economy.

QUESTIONS

• How have Australians’ attitudes toward climate change evolved?
• What grassroots movements or community-led climate initiatives are gaining momentum?
• How are businesses and industries adapting to sustainability goals?

ANSWERS

Public Awareness & Action

Australians' attitudes toward climate change have evolved over the years, reflecting increasing concern and a growing commitment to sustainability.

Evolving Attitudes Toward Climate Change

• Rising Concern: A 2023 survey indicated that over 70% of Australians are concerned about climate change and its potential to exacerbate existing challenges, such as cost-of-living pressures. LINK

• Perception of Human Influence: A 2024 poll found that 78% of Australians acknowledge climate disruption is occurring, but only 60% attribute it primarily to human activities. LINK 

• Generational Perspectives: Among Generation Z university students, 81% express significant concern about climate change, with many experiencing climate anxiety. LINK 

Grassroots Movements and Community-Led Initiatives

• 350 Australia: Part of a global movement, 350 Australia focuses on ending fossil fuels and promoting community-led climate solutions through education and action. LINK 

• Citizens' Climate Lobby Australia: This non-partisan group empowers citizens to engage in grassroots political lobbying, fostering dialogues with political representatives about climate action. LINK

• Climate Action Network Australia (CANA): CANA comprises over 100 nonprofit organisations collaborating to advocate for effective climate solutions, protect communities from climate impacts, and promote a fairer, healthier Australia. LINK

Business and Industry Adaptations

• Agricultural Sector: Industry leaders are advocating for government support to help farmers invest in battery energy storage systems. This initiative aims to reduce energy costs, decrease reliance on diesel generators, and enhance resilience against extreme weather events. LINK 

• Technological Integration: The adoption of advanced technologies, including autonomous machinery, is increasing in agriculture, highlighting the growing importance of software engineering in farming practices. LINK

These developments illustrate a nationwide shift toward acknowledging climate change and implementing sustainable practices across various sectors.

Links

• Australia's climate change strategies
  
• Australia Passes Law to Begin Mandatory Climate Reporting in 2025
• Australia - Policies & action | Climate Action Tracker
• Australia – Climate Performance Ranking 2025
• Victoria has set world-leading targets to cut the state's greenhouse gas emissions and achieve net zero emissions by 2045 
• Australia and other high-emission nations must take drastic action to stop climate change impacts becoming irreversible, according to a world-leading expert
• Here are ten practical policies that Australia's next Government should implement to seize the decade by delivering necessary cuts to climate pollution
• Action to reduce emissions will help prevent the worst impacts of climate change, but will also create a boom in new jobs and new industries
• Leading climate policies from Australia's states and territories
• What every Australian state and territory can still do on climate
• From Net-Coal to Net-Zero: Australian States and Territories' Path
• Emissions reductions delivered by renewable energy, 2015-2025
• Coal production is set to “decline sharply” from 2027 due to the planned closure of 24 mines 
• Australia's investment in large-scale wind and solar hits six-year peak 
• Coal generation in OECD countries falls below half of its peak
• As is the case for coal, Australia still does not have a gas phase-out strategy and timeline 
• Renewables account for 39.4 per cent of Australia's total electricity supply

Australia Registers 5 Months of Record-Breaking Ocean Temperatures

Weatherzone - Ben Domensino

The oceans around Australia have been experiencing record warmth for the last five months.
Source: iStock / valio84 

The Australian region has set new sea surface temperature records on each of the past five months, with the oceans around Australia expected to stay abnormally warm throughout autumn.

Rising ocean temperatures are one of the most obvious impacts of climate change and the last five months have been remarkably warm in the waters around Australia.

The map below shows the sea surface temperature around Australia in January this year. 

The red shading shows areas that were warmer than average for January and the darker red off the country’s northwest coast show where sea surface temperatures were more than 3°C above the long-term (1991-2020) average.

Sea surface temperature in January 2025. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the Australian region have been more than 0.8°C above the 1961-90 average since the beginning of 2023.

The anomaly in summer 2024-25 was +1.01°C, easily beating the previous summer record of +0.89°C from 2023-24.

Summer sea surface temperature anomalies in the Australian region between 1900 and 2025. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Warmer seas near Australia enhance evaporation and add more moisture into the atmosphere.

Unsurprisingly, dew point temperatures were above average for most near-coastal regions of Australian in summer 2024-25.

Dew point temperature anomalies in summer 2024-25. Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org

Higher dew point temperatures make it feel warmer because the extra atmospheric moisture makes it harder for your body to lose heat through the evaporation of sweat.

So, if you live near the Australian coastline and thought last summer felt muggier than usual, you weren’t imagining it.

Looking ahead, computer models predict that sea surface temperatures will remain higher than average around Australia throughout spring.

Sea surface temperature outlook for May 2025, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model

Despite the cooling influence of a La Niña-like pattern in the Pacific Ocean, global sea surface temperatures have also been running at their second highest level on record in the opening months of 2025. 

The only year that had a warmer start than this year based on global sea surface temperatures was 2024.

Links

• Long-range forecasts and climate monitoring Bureau of Meteorology
• Australian climate change monitoring and projections Bureau of Meteorology 
• The heat is on: what we know about why ocean temperatures keep smashing records
• In hot water: here’s why ocean temperatures are the hottest on record
• Sea temperature | Reef Authority
• Australia Sea Water Temperatures 
• Oceans - CSIRO 
• Cyclone Alfred More Intense and Destructive due to Climate Change
• Southern hemisphere monitoring Pacific, Indian and Southern ocean regions

Global Warming Surpasses Critical 1.5°C Threshold for the First Time - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

The world has just experienced the hottest 12-month period ever recorded, with average temperatures breaching the 1.5°C climate target.

Key Details

• The EU's Copernicus climate service recorded the global mean temperature between February 2023 and January 2024 at 1.52°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average: European Union Earth Observation

• This temperature was 0.64°C hotter than the previous all-time high during 1991-2020.

• January 2024 was the hottest global January on record, marking the eighth consecutive month of record temperature highs.

• Average global sea surface temperatures for January 2024 also broke a record at 20.97°C, exceeding the previous 2016 record January by 0.26°C.

This breach of the Paris Agreement climate target across an entire year sets an alarming precedent. 

Climate scientists emphasise that urgent action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions can still slow warming.

Links

• World exceeds 1.5°C warming limit over 12 months
•  2024 is the Warmest Year on Record  
• Global Warming Will Weaken Earth’s Strongest Ocean Current, New Study Predicts 
• Flood and drought risk increasing in cities - study 
• 9 powerful stories about climate change 
• The Arctic is in trouble. The consequences will be felt around the world 
• NASA: Climate Change Evidence 
• United Nations: climate impacts and solutions

Explained: The renewables boom within our reach - Prof. Ross Garnau

Info360

Whether Australia is able to achieve net zero by 2050 will depend on our political choices and the decisions of Australian governments in the next few years. Illustration: 360info

Ross Garnaut AC Ross Garnaut is an economist whose career has been built around the analysis of and practice of policy connected to development, economic policy and international relations in Australia, Asia and the Pacific. He has held senior roles in universities, business, government and other Australian and international institutions. Ross Garnaut is: Professor Emeritus within the University of Melbourne in Business and Economics Fellow of the Australian Academy of Sciences Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia Distinguished Life Member of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Honorary Professor of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Doctor of Letters, honoris causa, Australian National University Doctor of Science in Economics, honoris causa, University of Sydney Ross Garnaut is the author or editor (alone or jointly with others) of 48 books in addition to numerous influential articles in scholarly journals and books on international economics, public finance, and economic development.

Donald Trump might be a speed hump on the road to net zero, but the business and climate case for renewables leaves Australia in the box seat to capitalise.

The start of a second Trump US presidency has led many to question the future outlook for energy in Australia and around the world, and what impact the new US administration will have on the move towards net zero.

Economist Ross Garnau, professor emeritus at both the Australian National University and the University of Melbourne, spoke to Info 360 about where things stand.

Q: Last November, you seemed to think there were real prospects for renewables in the world and the move towards net zero. You thought that the political and international settings for the environment were favourable. What’s your feeling today?

A: I certainly thought there were prospects of moving forward. A number of aspects of the international settings were favourable.

China is not only the world’s main producer of capital goods for the new economy, but also by far the world’s biggest user of renewables. 

Last year China produced more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined. Europe and other economies of North-East Asia are also making good progress.

And that creates a huge opportunity for Australia to use some of our renewable energy resources to support new industries exporting goods, especially to Europe and North-East Asia — countries that can’t generate the renewable energy to do it themselves.

The election of Trump doesn’t change the physics [of climate change] one bit. Atmospheric physics doesn’t care who wins American elections or what commentators are saying on Fox News.

Climate change is getting more severe and that will require a response, even though that may be an ignorant response. If it turns out to be an ignorant response, that would undermine our social and political order.

But it may also engender a positive response. I certainly think [Trump’s election] will have a negative effect on the US’s interaction with the international community. It may not have such a big negative effect in the United States, because Trump may not find it easy to repeal all the Biden measures.

Q: One of the first executive orders Trump signed was to withdraw from the Paris Agreement again. How do you see the impact of that decision on the rest of the world?

A: That’s up to the rest of the world. It will be influential. But, the rest of the world can choose to resist that influence. 

If the rest of the world bows to the influence, that could seriously affect commitments towards net zero in major economies generating a large amount of greenhouse gases, such as China, Japan, Korea, the European countries, and India. That would certainly have a big negative effect on international development towards net zero.

But it’s not certain that will be the case. China sees a geopolitical opportunity in America’s withdrawal from Paris. It’s already actively promoting its own decarbonisation. China is a huge ship to turn around, but it’s turning around. And it has momentum now in moving its industries towards a zero-carbon economy.

It will use its industrial strength to enhance cooperation with other countries wanting to move to net zero. And the speed of that move depends on their domestic politics and whether governments of the centre right or centre left, remain in power in the big European countries, such as Germany, France, and the UK. If they do, there is every prospect of the Paris commitments surviving, despite the change in US.

But if the US developments become instrumental in changing political direction in the rest of the world, then that will have a big negative effect on the world’s action on climate change.

Q: For big carbon-emitting businesses will that mean they can do whatever they want in terms of gas and oil exploration in the US? Do you expect that to follow in the rest of the world as well?

A: We still have a lot of business commitments to taking action on climate [change]. But for some businesses those commitments are only skin deep, dollar deep, and we’ve already seen some reversals in the rest of the world. 

Macquarie Bank, for example, headquartered in Australia has retreated on Paris commitments. Many companies around the world will use the US changes to pull back on those commitments.

We can’t rely on voluntary action by business to deliver good outcomes. You need policy and incentives because most businesses will only do what is profitable. Nevertheless, there are opportunities for businesses that are prepared to stay the course on climate commitments and they will be in a strong position when America comes back to the Paris agreements, as it may.

Q: What about business decisions in Australia, particularly for gas and oil exploration?

A: The mood has certainly moved. The barriers to Australia increasing its emissions and not meeting emissions targets has been weakened. However, both the government and opposition remain committed to net zero.

If we in Australia allow too much gas development, it will become impossible for us to achieve net zero by 2050. The outcome depends on our own political choices and the decisions that Australian governments make over the next few years, at a time that Trump is signalling that he has little to no interest in renewables.

Q: How do you see the opportunities for renewable development in Australia? I’m thinking particularly of opportunities for rural Australia.

A: Renewable energy is the cheapest form of energy. There’s lots of smokescreens around that but serious people in business know that you wouldn’t invest now in a coal-based power station because it would not be as cheap as investing in the best renewables backed by storage.

Links

• Renewable Energy Jobs: Future Growth in Australia (pdf)
• Battery Storage: Australia’s current climate
• China built out record amount of wind and solar power in 2024
• WMO confirms 2024 as warmest year on record at about 1.55°C above pre-industrial level
• Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements
• Why Trump 2.0 can’t be ignored on climate
• Turning point: China permitted no new coal-based steel projects in H1 2024 as policies drive decarbonisation
• Australia's Macquarie joins major banks in exiting global climate coalition
• About Net Zero Australia
• Renewables Competitiveness Accelerates, Despite Cost Inflation
• Australia in the Global Response to Climate Change Summary (pdf)

Has climate change supercharged Cyclone Alfred?

The Guardian - Graham Readfearn

Cyclone Alfred formed in the Coral Sea towards the end of February when sea surface temperatures were almost 1C hotter than usual

The surf at Snapper Rocks on the Gold Coast. Sea levels worldwide have risen by 20cm due to climate change, ‘which can make damages worse when storms like Cyclone Alfred hit’, an expert says. Photograph: Jason O’Br

Tropical Cyclone Alfred hit south-east Queensland on Saturday, bringing destructive winds, extreme flooding and storm surges to millions of people around Brisbane, the Gold Coast and northern New South Wales.

After last year was recorded as the hottest on record around the world, and the hottest for Australia’s oceans, what role could the climate crisis be playing in Tropical Cyclone Alfred and its impacts?

Like all weather systems on the planet, tropical cyclones are forming in a world that is heating rapidly, mostly because of the burning of fossil fuels.

The planet – and the world’s oceans – are retaining more of the sun’s energy because of the extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

But tropical cyclones are complex. They need ocean temperatures of at least 26.5C and the right setup of atmospheric conditions to form. In particular, they need low wind shear – that is, very little change in the wind, no matter how high they are blowing.

Studies have found that global heating is expanding the tropical belt – the region where cyclones can form – and other scientists have found that, on average, the point at which cyclones achieve their maximum intensity has been shifting towards the poles.

Dr Savin Chand is an expert on tropical cyclones and climate change in the Australian region. “Climate change isn’t causing tropical cyclones to form because they have been forming for millennia, but the environment in which they’re forming is becoming more hostile [to their formation],” the associate professor at Federation University said.

“But when they do form, we know that sea surface temperatures that are their source of energy are much warmer now than they used to be.”

Chand has led research that has argued the number of tropical cyclones has fallen by 13% in the 20th century. This was in line with expectations from climate scientists that global heating could actually reduce the total number of cyclones that form – but, of those, there will be a shift to higher intensity systems.

“These sea surface temperatures and warming in the atmosphere provide fuel to the systems so, when they do form, they have more energy to feed on and this tends to make them more intense than they used to be,” Chand said.

How could climate change have affected Cyclone Alfred?

Cyclone Alfred formed in the Coral Sea towards the end of February when sea surface temperatures were almost 1C hotter than usual.

The same area of low pressure and rising air known as a monsoon trough that birthed Cyclone Alfred actually spawned two other cyclones, Rae and Seru, which moved east, while Alfred took a path south-east and off the Queensland coastline.

This year was the Coral Sea’s warmest summer on record.

A chart showing the rise in temperatures in the summer in the Coral Sea since 1910. Illustration: BoM/Bureau of Meteorology

Data from the Bureau of Meteorology shows ocean temperatures off Brisbane and to the south have been between 0.5C and 1C hotter than normal in recent days.

On Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred was far enough south to come into contact with a weather system common at lower latitudes – an area of high pressure – that grabbed Tropical Cyclone Alfred and pushed it west towards the south-east Queensland coastline.

On Wednesday, Cyclone Alfred was moving through this area as it approached the coast. It was expected to cross on Saturday morning as a category one system.

What is climate change doing to the impacts from cyclones?

There are three main impacts that scientists and authorities are concerned about from Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s move to the Queensland coast: damage from extreme winds, flooding from intense rain, and damage at the coast from storm surge and damaging waves.

A warmer atmosphere can hold more water that can fall as rain and, generally, the atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture for each 1C of warming. But rainfall intensities can be greater than this because, as raindrops form, they also release energy into a system.

Dr Andrew Dowdy, an associate professor and expert on tropical cyclones at the University of Melbourne, and his colleagues have advised that for Australia, infrastructure or building planners should consider that each degree of warming could increase rainfall by as much as 15%.

Dowdy points to several characteristics from climate change that can make the impacts from Cyclone Alfred worse. “Climate change has heated the oceans so the dice [are] loaded for a greater chance of hot water around Australia, like what we saw this summer,” he said.

“These hot ocean temperatures can help supercharge tropical cyclones with more extreme rainfall and flood risks.”

When ocean heat up from climate change, they expand, pushing up sea levels. The melting of ice attached to land like ice sheets and glaciers also raises sea levels.

Dowdy said sea levels around the globe had already risen by 20cm due to climate change, “which can make damages worse when storms like Cyclone Alfred hit”.

“This includes more severe flood risks in tidal waterways like around the Gold Coast and the Brisbane River, as well as more severe coastal erosion.”

Links

• Fallen trees, howling wind and drunken parrots: bracing for Alfred, I remember another Queensland cyclone
• Tropical Cyclone Alfred approaches the Queensland coast – in pictures
• Cyclone Alfred More Intense and Destructive due to Climate Change
• Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s destruction driven by climate change
• Yes, Climate Change is pushing Australia’s cyclones southward
• Tropical Cyclone Alfred is slowing down – here’s why that makes it more dangerous
• Cyclone Alfred is slowing – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it
• Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s statements on cyclone, climate change contradicted by CSIRO
• Fact Sheet: Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
• Australia's changing climate
• Warm oceans, shifting winds: What is the science behind Cyclone Alfred’s strength?
• Tropical Cyclone Alfred – what the research says
• Here are seven things to know about tropical cyclones
• Tropical cyclone climatology