31/03/2025

Your house is becoming uninsurable due to climate risks. Albo and Dutton won’t mention it

Crikey -

Premiums in disaster-prone regions have increased by up to 400%, posing a systemic financial risk. Don’t expect it to be an election issue. 

Flooded houses are seen in Oxley, in Brisbane, after Cyclone Alfred, March 10 (Image: AAP/Jono Searle)

On the day Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered his budget, an Austrian insurance executive, Dr. Günther Thallinger, published a short essay on LinkedIn that made a mockery of the government’s long-term plans and projections. 

The board member at Allianz SE was writing about a fast-approaching and existential financial risk — one that appeared nowhere in the treasurer’s speech and will barely rate a mention in the election campaign.

Thallinger’s succinct warning regards climate-related weather events and the global insurance industry. “Heat and water destroy capital,” he writes. “Flooded homes lose value.” They don’t just lose value, though; houses can become uninsurable. This has far-reaching consequences. “A house that cannot be insured cannot be mortgaged. No bank will issue loans for uninsurable property. Credit markets freeze.”

The insurance industry has historically managed its own disaster-related exposure, but insurers will very soon no longer be able to offer coverage for many of these risks. “The math breaks down: the premiums required exceed what people or companies can pay,” Thallinger writes. 

The insurance industry is already shifting its business model in response to this risk by lifting premiums and declaring entire regions uninsurable. Large US home insurers, to ensure their survival, are simply exiting California over its risk of bushfires, and many companies have stopped offering new policies in Florida due to ongoing storm risk. (Five hurricanes in America last year alone caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.) 

Climate determined the date of the
election, yet remains utterly absent
from it.
This is only the start of insurers “adapting” as they struggle to cover growing disaster bills. Extreme weather phenomena are driving direct physical risks not just to homes but also to land, roads, power lines, railways, ports and factories globally.

In Australia, the McKell Institute estimated the direct cost of natural disasters could reach $35 billion per year by mid-century, an average of more than $2,500 per household per year. These costs are already rising rapidly: in Australia, every year since 2013 has seen more annual insured losses than the combined losses of between 2000 and 2004.

Insurance premiums are spiking globally, which means non-renewals (people cancelling their insurance) are also increasing. The rate of home insurance non-renewals has risen across the US, at least tripling since 2018 in more than 200 countries. In Australia, home insurance premiums rose an accumulative 56% between 2020-23. 

In some cases, according to the Insurance Council of Australia, insurance premiums in disaster-prone regions have increased by up to 400% in recent years. Research from the Actuaries Institute last year showed that nearly one in eight Australian households — 1.25 million people — now pay more than four weeks gross income on home insurance premiums. One in 20 are paying almost two months gross income on home insurance.

A swimming pool is surrounded by burnt remains of homes in Southern California on January 10, 2025. The damages from the California wildfires were projected to exceed $135 billion (Image: Sahab Zaribaf/Middle East Images)



With vulnerable regions growing inexorably, this situation is set to worsen. 

More people exiting the insurance market means more people unable to afford to rebuild their disaster-hit homes: families who ditch their home and contents insurance would lose three-quarters of their wealth if their home was destroyed, according to research by The Australia Institute. 

Disaster-hit areas, which are already the most vulnerable, will remain unreconstructed after disasters, not just because of rising building costs but also because insurance and finance are simply not available. The World Economic Forum Global Risk Report 2024 predicts that more than half a million Australian homes will be uninsurable due to extreme weather risks by 2030.

Whole areas in northern Australia and down the east coast (starting with Lismore) are already under irreversible threat as a result. And as temperatures rise and storms spread, the financial risks will mutate and multiply.

“Entire asset classes are degrading in real time,” Thallinger writes, “which translates to loss of value, business interruption, and market devaluation … This is a systemic risk that threatens the very foundation of the financial sector. If insurance is no longer available, other financial services become unavailable too.”

Real estate is the largest investment class of all, but these same pressures apply to infrastructure, transportation, agriculture and industry. Without the ability to price and manage climate risk, basic investments are impossible. “The economic value of entire regions — coastal, arid, wildfire-prone — will begin to vanish from financial ledgers. Markets will reprice, rapidly and brutally. This is what a climate-driven market failure looks like.” 

Governments may try to address this disparity between haves and have-nothings, but amid further disasters and adaptation costs, there is a limit to what stretched budgets will cover. 

At the terrifying point where enough risk cannot be transferred (no insurance), or absorbed (no state capacity to cover losses), and risk cannot be adapted to (physical limits exceeded), there is existential financial risk. “That means no more mortgages, no new real estate development, no long-term investment, no financial stability,” writes Thallinger. “The financial sector as we know it ceases to function.”

The only escape from this fate is to keep emissions out of the atmosphere, switching from fossil fuels. Somewhat optimistically, Thallinger states, “The only thing missing is speed and scale.” And as if to remind us he’s an insurance executive rather than a climate activist, he adds, “This is not about saving the planet. This is about saving the conditions under which markets, finance, and civilization itself can continue to operate.”

The impacts of climate-driven extreme weather events are already an ongoing item (albeit unspoken) in Australian federal budgets, whether through increased disaster relief or emergency services funding, or the rising cost of adaptation, or rebuilding and insuring infrastructure, or a growing list of other related expenses. However, this liability hasn’t translated into real action to reduce global emissions. 

Australia’s domestic emissions have barely budged since 2005, while emissions from its fossil fuel exports, already the third-highest in the world, are set to rise. Even a moderately responsible budget would begin by taxing fossil fuel companies properly and stopping subsidies altogether, using these funds to supercharge mitigation and adaptation measures (including to mitigate against insurance market failures). None of this is even the subject of discussion.

Well, that’s not quite true. A parliamentary select committee was established last year to assess the impact of climate risk on insurance premiums and availability. Driven and led by the Greens and chaired by Senator Mehreen Faruqi, the committee issued its final report in November, 99 pages of which comprehensively discuss many of the threats raised above.

It made eight recommendations, including: a national disaster risk map and database; that insurance companies explain premium costs to policyholders; that the consumer regulator monitors premiums; reformed taxes on insurance; an expanded reinsurance pool for natural disasters and more disaster funds; and a review of planning laws especially on development in high-risk areas.

Finally, it recommended government explore a levy on coal and gas companies to offset insurance costs and fund disaster mitigation measures. Labor and the Coalition, while noting many of the report’s recommendations, both refused to support the key recommendation on the polluter-pays model. 

Four months later, Senator Faruqi continues to advocate for this idea. “We know that one-in-two coal and gas companies pay zero tax,” she says. “We need to bring them to the table to pay their fair share, so communities don’t have to pay for how they are damaging the globe.”

She draws attention to the recent budget as a reflection of the Albanese government’s ongoing intransigence on this issue: “It was really telling that the budget overview has an entire section on disaster recovery and rebuild which does not mention climate at all. In fact the whole 64-page budget overview does not mention the word climate.”

Labor’s budget also promised no new money for climate action but more money for fossil fuel subsidies — even while draining the public purse for more disaster relief. With the future of capitalism itself relying on climate mitigation, this is the opposite of responsible financial management.

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Climate change and feedback loops: Have we reached the point of no return?


30/03/2025

Tackling climate crisis will increase economic growth, OECD research finds

Third of global GDP could be lost this century if climate crisis runs unchecked, says report

The UN climate chief said extreme weather would shave 1% from Europe’s GDP before mid-century, and by 2050 would shrink the economy by 2.3% a year. Photograph: Borja Suárez/Reuters
The Guardian - Fiona Harvey Environment editor

Taking strong action to tackle the climate crisis will increase countries’ economic growth, rather than damage their finances as critics of net zero policies have claimed, research from the world’s economic watchdog has found.

Setting ambitious targets on cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and setting out the policies to achieve them, would result in a net gain to global GDP by the end of the next decade, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in a joint report with the UN Development Programme.

The calculation of the net gain, of 0.23% by 2040, would be even greater in 2050, if it included the benefit of avoiding the devastation that not cutting emissions would wreak on the economy.

By 2050, the most advanced economies would enjoy an increase of 60% in GDP per capita growth, while by the same date lower income countries would experience a 124% rise from 2025 levels.

In the shorter term, there would also be benefits for developing countries, with 175million people lifted out of poverty by the end of the decade, if governments invest in cutting emissions now.

By contrast, a third of global GDP could be lost this century, if the climate crisis were allowed to run unchecked.

Achim Steiner, executive secretary of the United Nations Development Programme, told a conference held by the German government in Berlin on Tuesday: “The overwhelming evidence that we now have is that we are not regressing if we invest in climate transitions. We actually see a modest increase in GDP growth, that may look small at first … but quickly grows.”

Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, also warned in a speech on Wednesday morning in Berlin that Europe would suffer economic devastation from the climate crisis, if strong action were not taken soon. Extreme weather would shave 1% from Europe’s GDP before mid-century, and by 2050 would shrink the economy by 2.3% a year.

Although those figures may appear small, the crucial point is that the economic contraction would continue year after year. For comparison, the financial crisis of 2008-09 caused a contraction of 5.5% in the EU, but recovery began within a few years. The contraction owing to the climate crisis would be the equivalent of a serious recession occurring every year.

By the end of two decades of such damage, the EU economy would cease to exist.

“[Climate breakdown] is a recipe for permanent recession,” said Stiell. “As disasters make more and more regions unliveable, and food production declines, millions more people will be forced to migrate, internally and across borders.”

He added: “The climate crisis is an urgent national security crisis that should be at the top of every cabinet agenda.”

Critics of the target of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 have complained that tackling the climate crisis, by switching from fossil fuels to a low-carbon economy, would stifle economic growth and cripple the global economy.

However, the costs involved in investing in renewable energy are relatively modest, compared with the likely damage. In the UK, the cost is likely to be 0.2% of GDP a year to 2050. Providing climate finance to the poor world would also benefit rich countries.

Data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena), published on Wednesday, found record-breaking growth last year of 15% in renewable energy capacity. Nearly two-thirds of the growth was from China, the world’s powerhouse of green energy generation.

Francesco La Camera, the director general of Irena, said: “The continuous growth of renewables we witness each year is evidence that renewables are economically viable and readily deployable.”

However, fossil fuels continue to attract investment. In 2023, about 1.5m new jobs were created in the global clean energy sector – but nearly 1m jobs were also added in the fossil fuel industry.

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29/03/2025

Climate determined the date of the election, yet remains utterly absent from it

Crikey - Ketan Joshi

More than 1,000 media pieces from major outlets mentioned climate change during the peak of the Black Summer bushfires. In February this year, there were just 250.

Major flooding in Lismore, NSW, from Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Image: AAP/Jason O'Brien)
Author
Ketan Joshi is a writer, analyst, and communications consultant focusing on clean energy and climate change.
He previously worked in climate and energy for private companies and government agencies, and now writes journalism and commentary from the front lines of climate and energy battles around the world.
He is based in Oslo and consults to organisations addressing the climate crisis.

Australia’s election date was decided by climate change. 

Like every other major weather event of the past decade, Cyclone Alfred emerged in an atmosphere sweltering due to the heat-trapping effect of greenhouse gases. That made it hit harder and more unpredictably. 

Alfred tracked much farther south than cyclones normally do, so homes in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales were battered.

Albanese was forced to shift his election announcement, with both major parties having to deal with a surprise budget. It was weirdly fitting: a climate-intensified disaster playing a major role in deciding the timing of an election campaign that will refuse to directly engage with the urgency of fossil fuel elimination.

The days of the 2019 climate strikes have come and gone. Few want to say it aloud: Australia has entered a completely new phase of climate discourse. During the peak of the Black Summer bushfires, there were more than 1,000 pieces mentioning climate change in selected major print media outlets. In February 2025, there were about 250. Concerns have shifted towards the cost of living.

When it comes to the cost of power generation technologies, nuclear, coal, and gas are the most expensive, while wind and solar are the cheapest

However, Australians believe the opposite is true: polling shows 57% of respondents underestimate the percentage of renewables in Australia’s grids, and there is worryingly deep support for the expansion of new fossil gas extraction sites (alongside widespread acceptance of the “need” for gas in the “long term”). Incredibly, even the basic acceptance that human-induced heating is occurring shows early signs of weakening.

During the COVID pandemic, we were scared of death, disease and loss, but at some point in the past few years, we stopped being scared of the terrifying outcomes of fossil fuel reliance. Part of this is self-inflicted by people like me. 

Back in the mid-2010s, it emerged that we as climate communicators needed to talk more explicitly about the benefits of technologies like wind, solar, electric vehicles, and heat pumps: they’re cheaper, shinier, and modern. The notes we strike should be optimistic.

But these are side benefits. The heart of the story is that this is a massive harm-minimisation project that lives or dies on how rapidly we eliminate a trio of harmful substances from society. 

Is it any surprise that polls are showing the public is massively disconnecting from the sheer physical urgency of the problem, when so much of the focus has been on the power bill savings of solar panels and not on the immediate and deadly threat posed by a coal-fired power station?

Dutton now has the space to freely propose policies that actively incentivise the increased burning of fossil fuels in Australia. It is no accident that the opposition leader’s core energy message is promising to more heavily subsidise the use of oil and gas in Australia.

Under his proposals, wealthy people doing their shopping using gas-guzzling luxury utes and four-wheel drives will see a massive cut to their fossil fuel costs, through a deep cut to the taxation of road transport fuels. 

Dutton is promising to reserve a proportion of Australia’s gas for domestic use, on the grounds that ramping up supply of this fossil fuel will bring down power bills (a policy requested by crossbench senators including Jacqui Lambie and Rex Patrick).

At the time of writing, Australia’s core gas lobby groups haven’t yet screamed in outrage — presumably because Dutton is also offering to take an axe to the already generous approvals process for new gas extraction sites. Both the fuel excise cut and the gas extraction policies act as effective subsidies for fossil fuels.

The Coalition’s nuclear plan would almost certainly do nothing beyond massively increasing the lifespans of Australia’s unreliable coal-fired power fleet over the coming decades (to the delight of utilities more than willing to eat up subsidies to keep those plants polluting longer).

Labor has not been as brazen in proposing fossil fuel subsidies disguised as cost of living policies, but they suffer the same affliction in avoiding the issue at hand. Generous energy bill subsidies are vote-winners, but they don’t help get expensive fossil fuels out of power grids (particularly gas, the cost of which is a primary driver of wholesale electricity prices).

It is an absurd thing to spectate a debate about fossil fuels that refuses to mention the physical consequences of their use. Imagine gun control advocates in the US talking solely about the financial savings of not paying for bullets.

We want to stop burning coal, oil and gas because they rapidly wreck the physical systems we rely on to live. The fact that climate impacts are pulling the levers of this election’s schedule lays it out pretty neatly: the laws of physics don’t change based on our beliefs and our statements. 

Maybe this election is the perfect time to get back to the heart of the matter: fossil fuels are deadly, and we need to ditch them ASAP.

Links

28/03/2025

Australia: Ten Climate Change Questions Demanding Answers - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

As climate change intensifies, Australia’s future is looking more uncertain.

While the impacts of rising temperatures and extreme weather are already being felt across the country, crucial questions remain unanswered.

Experts agree that we need more data and research to understand the full scope of climate change’s effects—and how Australia can best respond.

Australia's climate future is clouded by pressing questions that demand immediate attention:
  1. Will the government's gas expansion plans lower energy costs without derailing emission targets?
    The Labor government's strategy to increase gas production aims to reduce energy prices. However, it's uncertain how this aligns with Australia's commitment to reducing emissions.

  2. What reforms are in store for Australia's environmental legislation?
    Both major political parties have yet to clarify their positions on overhauling environmental laws, leaving Australians in the dark about future protections.

  3. Are Australia's gas exports truly a cleaner alternative to coal?
    The claim that Australian gas exports are a cleaner substitute for coal lacks comprehensive evidence, raising questions about their environmental impact.

  4. What are the emission reduction commitments for 2035?
    With 2035 on the horizon, neither major party has outlined clear strategies for emission reductions, leaving a significant gap in Australia's climate policy.

  5. How will climate change intensify extreme weather events?
    Australia is already experiencing more frequent and severe heatwaves, bushfires, and floods. The extent of future intensification remains uncertain.

  6. What are the projected impacts on Australia's unique biodiversity?
    Climate change threatens Australia's distinctive ecosystems, but detailed assessments of potential species extinctions and habitat loss are still needed.

  7. How vulnerable are coastal communities to rising sea levels?
    With sea levels rising, the specific risks to Australia's coastal infrastructure and communities require further investigation to inform adaptation strategies.

  8. What health risks does climate change pose to Australians?
    The health implications, including the spread of diseases and heat-related illnesses due to increased temperatures, need more comprehensive research.

  9. How will water resources and agriculture be affected?
    Understanding the future availability of water and its impact on agriculture is crucial for ensuring food security and supporting rural economies.

  10. What are the economic costs of inaction on climate change?
    Quantifying the financial consequences of failing to address climate change is essential for policymakers and the public to grasp the urgency of mitigation efforts.

Addressing these unanswered questions is critical for Australia's environmental and economic future.

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27/03/2025

2025 Budget: Big Promises, Bigger Doubts on Climate Action - Lethal Heating Editor BDA



Treasurer Jim Chalmers unveiled the 2025 Federal Budget on March 25, promising billions for green industries. But critics say it's too little, too late.

$3 Billion for Green Energy—Enough?

The government pledged $3 billion to boost green metals and hydrogen. Chalmers called it an investment in a “Future Made in Australia.” He argued it would attract investors and create jobs.

Environmental groups aren’t convinced. “It’s window dressing,” said climate activist Sarah Evans. “We need urgent action, not just industry handouts.”

Voters Want More

Polling shows Australians want stronger climate policies. Many say the budget falls short. “People see through the spin,” said economist Daniel Wright. “They want real emissions cuts, not just money thrown at projects.”

Disasters Costing Billions

The budget admits climate-related disasters have already cost Australia $13.5 billion. But critics say the response is reactive, not preventive. “We’re paying the price for inaction,” said environmental analyst Lisa Tran.

Global Pressures Add to Uncertainty

The budget also warns of economic risks from global trade shifts. It points to U.S. policies that could disrupt Australia’s economy.

A Missed Opportunity?

While the budget puts cash into green industries, many argue it doesn’t go far enough. “This was the chance to lead on climate,” said Wright. “Instead, we got half-measures.”

The debate is far from over.

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26/03/2025

Climate Change Australian Wildlife - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Climate change is having a profound impact on Australia’s animals and marine life.

Rising temperatures, shifting weather patterns, habitat destruction, and ocean acidification are some of the biggest threats.

Here’s how different species are being affected:

Land Animals

  1. Koalas – Rising temperatures and more frequent bushfires are destroying eucalyptus forests, reducing food sources and habitat. Heatwaves can also cause dehydration and stress.
  2. Kangaroos – Extreme heat and drought limit food and water availability, causing population declines in some areas.
  3. Platypuses – Reduced rainfall and prolonged droughts are drying up rivers and streams, threatening their aquatic homes.
  4. Flying Foxes – Mass die-offs have been recorded due to extreme heat events. Temperatures above 42°C (107°F) can kill thousands in a single day.
  5. Frogs – Habitat loss and climate-related disease outbreaks, such as the spread of chytrid fungus, are pushing many frog species toward extinction.

Marine Life

  1. Great Barrier Reef – Coral bleaching caused by warming ocean temperatures has devastated large sections of the reef, impacting fish and other marine species that rely on it.
  2. Sea Turtles – Rising sand temperatures at nesting sites affect the sex ratio of hatchlings, with more females being born, threatening future population stability.
  3. Fish Species – Warmer waters are forcing fish to migrate to cooler regions, disrupting ecosystems and food chains.
  4. Sharks and Rays – Changes in water temperature and food availability are shifting shark distribution patterns, leading to increased sightings in areas where they were once uncommon.
  5. Penguins and Seabirds – Changing ocean currents and declining fish stocks due to climate shifts are reducing food availability for seabirds like little penguins.

General Climate Impacts

  • Increased Bushfires – Destroying vast areas of habitat and killing large numbers of animals.
  • Drought and Water Shortages – Reducing food and water sources for many species.
  • Extreme Weather Events – Cyclones, floods, and storms are damaging ecosystems and displacing wildlife.
  • Ocean Acidification – Making it harder for shellfish and corals to form their protective structures, threatening the entire marine food chain.

Conclusion

Climate change is already causing severe disruptions to Australia’s wildlife.

Conservation efforts, habitat restoration, and emissions reduction are essential to protecting these species from further harm.

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