Merchants of Death

Pearls and Irritations - Julian Cribb

In extending the life of Australia’s North West Shelf gas project till 2070, the federal and WA Governments have knowingly signed the death warrants of four million human beings.

Author Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of six books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is “How to Fix a Broken Planet” (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

When a small child is confronted with a reality it does not like, it covers its eyes. Australia’s politicians, Labor, Liberal and National, are no better. 

In this country, and others, there is a powerful political consensus to deny the reality they have been informed about in countless, tested, scientific reports. 

This is a consensus to ignore the truth in favour of a manufactured political fantasy that will, ultimately, destroy Australia as a nation, along with most other countries, as global food and water systems collapse and chaos ensues.

Denial of reality is today an acknowledged form of psychosis, a universal mental illness, if you like. It occurs whenever “seemingly intelligent and sane adults vehemently deny truths despite a body of irrefutable evidence”. It infects politics in particular, in both democracies and autocracies.

While its more extreme forms are on daily display in countries such as Russia, the US, North Korea and Israel, the political process everywhere is to some degree contaminated by it.

Thanks to this global hallucination, between now and 2070, Australia will release an extra 78 billion petajoules of methane — euphemistically known as “natural gas” — with the warm approval of almost every government and most politicians.

Further, Australia plans to mine another 75 billion tonnes of coal, whose carbon emissions will in turn will claim a further 75 million human lives.

This calculation is based on the “ thousand tonne rule", which estimates that for every thousand tonnes of fossil fuels mined, the resulting climate chaos kills one person somewhere on Earth.

Climate deaths due to storms, floods, heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, disease and starvation are thought to average about a million a year at present, rising by 250,000 a year between now and 2050, according to the UN World Health Organisation. WHO warns that climate is a “threat multiplier” that nullifies the benefits of advanced healthcare, nutrition and clean water even in advanced countries. In other words, the death toll will rise exponentially as climate chaos accelerates.

That one small country should knowingly encompass more human deaths than World War II is an abomination. That it should do so while pretending, like a small child hiding its eyes, that there is nothing here to see is a stark metric of the moral turpitude of our governing class. No politician can pretend they have not been warned of the consequences of their actions. The warnings have come, thick and fast and ever stronger, for more than 50 years.

According to the World Meteorological Office, there is a 70% chance that between now and 2030, average global temperatures will exceed 1.5-degrees Celsius above pre-fossil fuel levels. The limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement to avert catastrophe will be shattered. The world could suffer its first +2 degree year by 2029.

At present rates, by 2100, the world will be +3.5 degrees if we implement all the pledged climate measures – and +4.5 degrees if we don’t. Bear in mind that all global heating predictions so far have been overtaken by reality much sooner than expected.

Global temperatures averaging +3-4 degrees Celsius are significant because that is the point at which worldwide crop failures and food system collapse become unavoidable. 

There will also be catastrophic water scarcity in many heavily populated or drier regions, including Australia. But also the Middle East, South Asia, North Asia, Central Asia, Central America, the US and southern Europe.

With the failure in the global food system comes failure in governments worldwide. And with that comes war, both civil and international. We know that much from history. With those events comes the collapse in the global economic system, which is based on imaginary “wealth” in any case. And with that, the refugee tsunami will swell into billions.

So opening up a few new gas wells, oil wells or coalfields is no longer a trivial act, or something to celebrate. It is an act of calculated, premediated, mass murder – and nobody who retains a shred of rationality can deny that. It unleashes incalculable horrors on society worldwide, from which Australians, and especially our children, will not be exempt.

It is a declaration of war on our grandchildren, ensuring for them a world that is functionally uninhabitable for centuries to come.

From now on every fossil fuel project proposed in Australia must be accompanied by a human impact statement, estimating the number of lives it will end or ruin, the consequences for food, water and peace – to set against the big dollar claims of greedy miners, politicians and media.

Australia, which proudly played a key role in helping to establish the United Nations and Declaration of Human Rights in the 1940s, cannot, must not, be implicated in the ongoing act of human auto-genocide.

Instead of being merchants of death, we must reclaim our former ideals, as leaders of a caring, peaceful and sustainable world to bequeath to our descendants.

Footnotes

• North West Shelf gas extension approved until 2070 – The Guardian
• IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Climate Change Risk Assessment 2021 – Chatham House
• Denialism and its impact on climate policy – National Institutes of Health
• Australia’s gas expansion and the carbon budget – Climate Analytics
• Australia Energy Policy Review 2023 – IEA
• The Thousand Tonne Rule and climate mortality – The Lancet Planetary Health
• Climate Change and Health – World Health Organization
• Climate Threats to Global Health – WHO Climate Report
• 70% chance of exceeding 1.5°C by 2030 – World Meteorological Organization
• Tracking Global Temperature Rise – NOAA Climate.gov
• Emissions Gap Report 2023 – UNEP
• Climate models underestimate actual warming – Nature
• Risk of multiple breadbasket failures – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• World Water Development Report 2023 – UN Water
• Climate and Conflict – Council on Foreign Relations
• Climate Change and Displacement – UNHCR

Australia 2050: Climate Chaos - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Summary

250,000 annual deaths worldwide, many of them Australian, from climate change[1] Warnings ignored by Australian leaders[4] Australia’s emissions tied to 75 million deaths[5] Northern Territory now a heat exclusion zone[7] Mass displacement from climate migration[8] Water rationing permanent in some States[9] Soaring suicide rates in rural areas[10] Insurance collapse in disaster-prone areas[11] Agriculture crippled by heat and drought[12] Over half of native species critically endangered[14] Great Barrier Reef lost[15] Political unrest and civil disobedience[16] First Nations culture scarred by climate loss[17]

It is 2050. Australia teeters on the brink. The coastlines have vanished into memory, bushfires devour what was once fertile farmland, and relentless heatwaves claim lives with a brutality that rivals war.

This isn’t the plot of a dystopian novel; it’s the bitter harvest of decades spent in denial, delay, and self-deception.

But it was never inevitable.

From now until 2050, the World Health Organisation warns that climate change will steal an extra 250,000 lives each year, many of them Australian, lost to heat stress, malnutrition, mosquito-borne diseases, and suffocating air^[1].

Hospitals, once sanctuaries, are buckling under the weight of the crisis. In cities like Perth and Darwin, the very air has become a health threat.

Australia, once proud of its world-class healthcare, now watches it unravel, battered by extreme weather, blackout chaos, and the exodus of doctors fleeing disaster zones.

This is no accident. This is the price of deliberate neglect.

Australia’s leaders saw the storm coming. They were warned by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change^[2], the World Meteorological Organization^[3], and their own scientists^[4].

They didn’t just ignore the warnings, they doubled down. They poured money into fossil fuels, greenlit new coalfields, and fast-tracked gas projects. They gambled away human futures for fleeting profits.

On current projections, Australia will have poured tens of billions more tonnes of carbon into the sky by 2070. The ‘thousand tonne rule’, one death for every thousand tonnes burned^[5], means Australia’s emissions alone could spell over 75 million preventable deaths worldwide. That’s more than World War II’s entire death toll^[6]. And all of it, done with eyes wide open.

By 2050, climate change isn’t just a threat, it’s the biggest risk to national security. The Northern Territory has become a heat exclusion zone^[7]. Millions are on the move: Pacific Islanders, South Asians, and Australians fleeing drought and disaster^[8]. The Defence Force now runs refugee camps on abandoned mines and parched cattle stations.

Social fabric? Torn apart.

When water is worth more than oil, society begins to unravel. In New South Wales and Queensland, water rationing is now a way of life^[9]. Suicide rates, especially among farmers and the young, have soared^[10]. Rural communities are vanishing. Ghost towns multiply.

Australia’s economy is a shadow of its former self. Insurers have abandoned flood and fire zones, now covering more than half the country^[11]. Real estate markets have collapsed under relentless disaster. Agriculture, once the nation’s pride, is crippled by drought and heat^[12]. The few crops that survive are often lost to megafires or locust swarms^[13]. Food prices have soared 600%. Supply chains have snapped. GDP has halved. Poverty is everywhere.

And nature? Nature is vanishing.

More than half of Australia’s unique species are now critically endangered or extinct^[14]. The Great Barrier Reef is only a memory^[15]. Eucalypt forests, scorched beyond recovery, are gone. Koalas, kangaroos, and countless others are now just stories in children’s books. With them, a core part of Australia’s identity has disappeared.

Politics has not survived unscathed. Trust in government is at rock bottom. Climate inaction has triggered mass protests, unrest, and violent crackdowns^[16]. Rolling blackouts sweep through cities, not from lack of resources, but from a broken climate. Everyone knows: this isn’t a natural disaster. It’s political manslaughter.

Culture has become a shell.

Dreamtime stories once celebrated by First Nations Elders are now laments of loss^[17]. Climate collapse is a wound too deep to heal. The Opera House still stands, but its performances are elegies. Australia, once a sunburnt paradise, is now a global warning, a nation that torched its future for mining royalties.

Every fire, every famine, every lost life, none of it was unavoidable.

Australia once helped found the United Nations and championed human rights. It once stood for peace, reason, and shared prosperity. That moral leadership has been traded for complicity in planetary destruction.

But choice remains. It always has.

From this day forward, not a single fossil fuel project should proceed without a legally binding Human Impact Statement, detailing every life it will cost, every farm it will destroy, every child it will doom to a burning world. The excuses are gone. The science is clear. The consequences are here.

Australia must decide: Will we lead the healing of a wounded world, or continue as merchants of death?

It’s time to reclaim the moral clarity we lost. To abandon the delusion of short-term gain and embrace the reality of long-term survival. Our children deserve better than a scorched wasteland. They deserve the country we once promised, and failed to deliver.

2050 is no longer a distant future. It is the verdict.

Footnotes

• [1] World Health Organization – Climate Change and Health
• [2] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), 2023
• [3] World Meteorological Organization – State of the Global Climate 2023
• [4] Climate Council of Australia – The Lost Years: Counting the Cost of Climate Inaction
• [5] The Guardian – Every 1,000 tonnes of CO₂ leads to one premature death, study estimates
• [6] United Nations – WWII Global Death Toll Archive
• [7] CSIRO – Australian Climate Futures Modelling
• [8] UNHCR – Climate Change and Displacement Report
• [9] National Water Grid Authority – Future Water Security in Australia
• [10] Australian Psychological Society – Climate Change and Mental Health
• [11] Insurance Council of Australia – Climate Risk and the Insurance Crisis
• [12] ABARES – Farm Performance and Climate Impacts
• [13] IPCC – Desertification and Food Security, Special Report on Climate Change and Land
• [14] WWF Australia – Living Planet Report 2024
• [15] ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies – Status of Coral Reefs
• [16] Lowy Institute – Climate, Democracy and Discontent in Australia
• [17] AIATSIS – First Nations’ Cultural Heritage and Climate Change

How Climate Change Could Spark the Wars of Tomorrow - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

As the planet heats, the risks of armed conflict, authoritarian crackdowns, and civil unrest are heating up with it.

Climate Conflict Triggers

• Water scarcity and food shocks
• Mass migration across fragile borders
• Heat-driven state collapse
• Militarisation of the Arctic
• Authoritarianism as ‘climate control’

Climate change is fast becoming a threat to global security. 

From the drought-ravaged Sahel to Pacific island nations on the brink of abandonment, a warming world is setting the stage for a more violent and divided future. 

According to the United Nations Environment Programme¹, environmental stress is now a central driver of conflict risk, especially in politically unstable regions.

Water Wars Are No Longer Science Fiction

In many parts of the world, shrinking water supplies are already inflaming political tensions. 

The World Resources Institute² reports that 25% of the global population lives in areas of “extremely high” water stress. 

The Nile Basin, the Tigris-Euphrates rivers, and India-Pakistan’s Indus system are all water flashpoints. 

Climate change is projected to increase these tensions by altering rainfall patterns and accelerating glacial melt, which supplies rivers in South and Central Asia.

Borders Under Siege

Mass migration, driven by climate shocks, is another looming fault line. 

\By 2050, as many as 216 million people³ could become climate migrants within their own countries, according to the World Bank. 

This does not include refugees who are already straining political systems across Europe and the United States. 

In Australia, the federal government’s 2020 Defence Strategic Update⁴ warns of instability and displacement in the Indo-Pacific, regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise and cyclonic devastation.

Climate Collapse and Civil War

Countries with weak governance are especially vulnerable. 

A 2015 study in PNAS⁵ linked prolonged drought, made more likely by climate change, to the outbreak of civil war in Syria. 

In sub-Saharan Africa, repeated climate shocks have undermined agricultural economies, led to resource-based conflicts, and helped extremist groups thrive amid chaos. 

The Pentagon has labelled climate change a "threat to national security”⁶ since 2014.

The Age of Climate Dictators?

As instability rises, so too may authoritarianism. 

Governments under siege from climate-fuelled unrest may respond with emergency laws, surveillance, and repression in the name of “eco-security".

From bushfire evacuations to pandemic lockdowns, recent history shows how easily civil liberties can be curtailed during perceived environmental emergencies. 

Climate breakdown could be used to justify indefinite suspension, or significant alteration, of legal order and the rule of law in democratic and non-democratic regimes alike, according to analysts at the Carnegie Endowment⁷.

Arming the Melting Arctic

The Arctic, once locked in ice, is now open for business - and conflict. 

Melting permafrost and sea ice are unlocking new shipping routes and fossil fuel reserves, and nations are rushing to assert territorial control. 

Russia has reopened military bases in the region, while NATO has increased patrols. 

A 2023 NATO briefing⁸ warned that Arctic militarisation could spark future confrontations if not carefully managed.

Why It Matters

War in a warming world may not look like traditional invasions.

it will be fought over droughts, borders, and resource collapse. 

Climate change is not only an environmental emergency.

 It is a political and military risk that could fracture fragile states, stir nationalist aggression, and usher in new forms of authoritarian control. 

As the thermometer rises, so does the potential for chaos.

Footnotes

1. UNEP: Climate Security Risks
2. WRI: Global Water Stress
3. World Bank: Climate Migration
4. Australia 2020 Defence Strategic Update
5. PNAS: Drought and the Syrian War
6. Center for Climate & Security: Climate as National Security Threat
7. Carnegie: Authoritarianism and Climate
8. NATO: Arctic Security Briefing

Australia’s National Security Under Siege from Climate Change - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
Climate disasters strain ADF logistics and response capacity. Sea-level rise and extreme weather threaten military infrastructure. Regional instability linked to resource scarcity and displacement. Defence planning increasingly frames climate as a threat multiplier.

Climate Chaos Moves Into the War Room

When Australians picture national security, they may think of cyberattacks, military exercises, or maritime patrols. 

But Australia’s top defence thinkers are now issuing warnings about a slower, more insidious threat: climate change. 

The Australian Defence Force (ADF) has been called on repeatedly in the last five years to respond not to foreign attacks but to fires, floods, and cyclones. 

From the devastating Black Summer fires of 2019–2020 to the catastrophic east coast floods of 2022, troops are increasingly deployed on home soil for climate disaster response, placing sustained pressure on a military designed for combat, not climate aid. 

According to the 2024 National Defence Strategy^[1], climate change is now explicitly recognised as a “threat multiplier”—a factor that exacerbates existing risks and challenges, both domestically and abroad.

Infrastructure at Risk

Much of Australia's defence infrastructure—airbases, naval ports, training grounds—sits precariously on the coast. 

Rising seas and intensifying storms are not distant possibilities. 

They are material threats. 

 Take RAAF Base Darwin, located just metres above sea level. 

A study by the Climate Council^[2] found that dozens of critical ADF facilities are vulnerable to climate-driven hazards including inundation and bushfire smoke. 

Equipment damage, reduced readiness, and costly repairs are already on the ledger.

Disaster Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific

Beyond its borders, Australia faces growing responsibilities as a stabiliser in the climate-volatile Indo-Pacific. 

Island nations like Tuvalu and Kiribati are on the frontline of rising seas and freshwater scarcity. 

These environmental shifts are fuelling migration, political instability, and humanitarian crises. 

As competition for influence in the Pacific intensifies—particularly between China and the U.S.—Australia must navigate climate diplomacy as geopolitics. 

The ADF’s humanitarian missions in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga are now as critical to soft power as any treaty.

Conflicts Over Water and Food

Resource scarcity is no longer abstract. 

In Australia’s interior, prolonged drought and heatwaves are tightening agricultural output, while water rights battles—such as those around the Murray-Darling Basin—become flashpoints. 

Globally, the 2021 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report^[3] warned of increasing risks of violent conflict over dwindling natural resources. 

Australia’s defence and intelligence communities must now consider scenarios where climate-driven desperation—not ideology—fuels security threats.

A Call to Preparedness

The shift is underway. 

The 2023 Defence Strategic Review^[4] called for climate resilience to be “mainstreamed” into all aspects of planning. 

Yet experts argue Australia still lacks a comprehensive Climate Security Strategy, leaving the nation reactive rather than proactive.

“We are playing catch-up in a rapidly destabilising environment,” warns Professor Michael Thomas of the Australian National University’s Climate Security Policy Centre^[5]. “Resilience must now be baked into every tank, port, and policy.”

Conclusion

Climate change isn’t coming for national security; it’s already inside the perimeter. 

Whether it’s burned landscapes, flooded runways, or political upheaval in neighbouring states, the line between climate impact and national defence is blurring fast. 

The question is no longer whether climate will shape Australia’s security future, but whether the country will be ready in time. 

Footnotes

1. 2024 National Defence Strategy – Department of Defence
2. Critical Infrastructure at Risk – Climate Council
3. 2021 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – Working Group II
4. 2023 Defence Strategic Review – Department of Defence
5. Climate Security Policy Centre – ANU

The Hidden Costs of a Warming Planet - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Beyond the melting ice and raging heatwaves, climate change is quietly reshaping the world in stranger, more unsettling ways.

Climate's Hidden Effects

• Earth’s axis is shifting
• Jet streams are destabilising
• Dead zones growing in oceans
• Infectious fungi on the rise
• Earthquakes from ice melt
• Food nutrition is dropping
• Mental health is deteriorating

1. The Planet’s Tilt Is Changing

As glaciers melt and water redistributes, Earth’s axis is wobbling—literally. 

According to research published in Nature, the melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice has shifted the Earth's rotation by more than 4 meters since the 1990s¹. 

Though imperceptible to humans, these changes can disrupt satellite alignment and GPS systems, with geopolitical and logistical implications.

2. Jet Streams Are Breaking Down

Rising Arctic temperatures are weakening the polar jet stream, causing it to meander and stall. 

This phenomenon has been linked to extreme, lingering weather events, like the deadly 2021 Texas freeze and the 2022 Pakistan floods. 

A study from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences confirms that these “stuck” patterns are becoming more frequent².

3. Oceans Are Running Out of Breath

Warmer oceans hold less oxygen, creating vast hypoxic zones where marine life suffocates³. 

These dead zones have quadrupled in size since the 1950s, affecting fisheries and threatening marine biodiversity from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arabian Sea.

4. Fungi Are the Next Pandemic Threat

As global temperatures rise, previously rare fungi are adapting to human body temperatures. 

One such example, Candida auris, has been spreading rapidly and resisting treatment. 

The CDC warns this fungus emerged in part due to climate change's thermal pressures⁴.

5. Earthquakes Triggered by Ice Loss

When glaciers retreat, they lift pressure off the Earth’s crust, potentially triggering earthquakes and landslides. 

In places like Alaska and the Himalayas, this “isostatic rebound” is becoming more common. 

A 2009 study in Nature Geoscience predicted this exact destabilisation as ice disappears⁵.

6. Crops Losing Nutrients

Higher CO₂ levels are making crops grow faster—but less nutritious. 

Studies show rice, wheat, and barley lose protein, zinc, and iron under elevated CO₂. 

Harvard researchers found this could affect over 600 million people in developing countries⁶.

7. Climate’s Toll on the Mind

Rising temperatures are also affecting our minds. 

Extreme heat has been linked to higher rates of suicide, aggression, and cognitive decline. 

A 2018 Stanford-led study found even a 1°C rise in monthly average temperatures leads to a measurable uptick in mental health-related ER visits⁷.

Why It Matters

While sea-level rise and record heatwaves dominate headlines, these lesser-known climate effects are equally urgent, and often more difficult to reverse. 

The warming planet is not just changing our environment, but the inner workings of ecosystems, societies, and even ourselves.

Footnotes

1. Nature: Ice melt shifts Earth’s axis 
2. PNAS: Jet stream stalling causes extremes
3. Science: Ocean deoxygenation expanding
4. CDC: Candida auris and climate
5. Nature Geoscience: Glacial rebound triggers earthquakes
6. Nature: Nutritional decline in crops
7. Nature: Heat and mental health

Ways We Citizens Can Combat Climate Change - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Climate change isn’t just about energy—it’s also about habits, investments, technology, and your voice at work. Below are eight strategies can help you shift the carbon curve. 

We’ve all heard the standard tips: fly less, eat green, ditch plastic. But what if you’ve already made those changes? As climate change escalates, so should our solutions. From your lawn to your inbox, here are novel, science-backed actions anyone can take—and most are easier than you'd think.

1. Clean Up Your Inbox

Digital pollution is real. Every email generates emissions due to energy used by servers and data centres. In the UK, if every adult sent one fewer "thank you" email per day, it would save 16,433 tonnes of CO₂ annually¹. Deleting old emails, unsubscribing from newsletters, and avoiding unnecessary replies can collectively make a dent.

2. Rethink Where Your Superannuation Sleeps

Your retirement fund might be financing oil, gas, or coal. A 2021 study found that shifting your investments to ethical portfolios can cut emissions 21 to 27 times more than lifestyle changes like flying less or reducing meat². Explore sustainable superannuation options through platforms like RIAA.

                 💡 Summary

• Email declutter → Cuts data centre emissions
• Sustainable super → 27x more climate impact
• Native gardens → Act as carbon sinks
• Shopping trackers → Steer low-carbon purchases
• Carbon removal → Verified CO₂ removal
• Remote work → Cuts transport emissions
• Workplace advocacy → Drives systemic change
• Repair culture → Reduces manufacturing waste

3. Convert Your Lawn Into a Climate Asset

Mowing, watering, and fertilising traditional grass consumes water and emits greenhouse gases. Instead, switch to native ground covers or drought-tolerant species. Deep-rooted plants help sequester carbon and reduce runoff³. Plus, they boost biodiversity.

4. Use Apps That Track the Carbon Cost of Shopping

Try apps like Thoughtful or Joro that estimate emissions tied to your spending. These tools guide you toward low-impact brands, helping consumers reduce emissions by up to 30%⁴.

5. Pay for Carbon Removal—Not Just Offsets

Tree planting isn’t always reliable. Instead, companies like Climeworks and Charm Industrial offer verified carbon removal via direct air capture and bio-oil injection. These services permanently remove CO₂ from the atmosphere—something offsets can’t guarantee⁵.

6. Work Remote—But Smartly

Not everyone can work from home full-time, but even partial remote work cuts commute emissions. A 2020 report by the IEA suggests remote work could reduce transport emissions globally by 54 million tonnes per year if managed efficiently⁶. Virtual co-working platforms help maintain productivity and community.

7. Influence Your Workplace from Within

Start where you work. Whether you're in HR or IT, you can help green your organisation—switching cloud providers, reducing office energy use, or making climate part of the corporate mission. Groups like ClimateAction.tech show how collective action inside companies creates real change⁷.

8. Join the Repair Revolution

Fix, don’t replace. Extending the life of a phone, appliance, or shirt significantly lowers your personal footprint. One study found that extending smartphone lifespan by just one year reduces emissions by 31%⁸. Support Right to Repair laws and visit local repair cafés. 

🔍 Footnotes

1. OVO Energy, “Think Before You Thank”.
2. Ethical Investment Impact Study, Australian study (2021).
3. Climate Council Australia, “Gardening in a Changing Climate”.
4. Joro, Joro App Impact Report.
5. Climeworks, Direct Air Capture Overview.
6. IEA Report, “Digitalisation and Energy”.
7. ClimateAction.tech, Official Website.
8. The Repair Association, Right to Repair Facts. 

The Double-Edged Sword of AI and the Battle Against Climate Change Misinformation

EARTHDAY.ORG - Dory Miller

In the age of artificial intelligence, how we seek answers has fundamentally changed, whether for complex questions or just simple inquiries. 

What was once a matter of working through library bookshelves transformed into sifting through Google search results and has now been reduced to typed conversation with AI-powered platforms like ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini. 

But as these tools become more central to how we access information, their reliability — especially on urgent and politically-charged topics like climate change — has come under intense scrutiny.

The uncomfortable truth is that these models do not always provide accurate and factual responses that we are looking for. Large Language Models (LLMs) like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard have been known to “hallucinate” data — a polite way of saying they make things up. 

That’s a huge problem in our current age of misinformation, particularly for those who willfully or overly trust AI-generated responses. 

In a bit of a confessional, I asked ChatGPT to give me some examples of information it had shared on climate change in the past that was wrong, it happily coughed up these:

1. “Climate models can’t be trusted — they’re too uncertain.”

ChatGPT said this was incorrect framing. In earlier outputs, it admitted that it sometimes gave too much weight to uncertainty, downplaying how accurate and useful climate models actually are. 

While they do have uncertainties (especially about feedback and timing), their broad projections have been remarkably accurate, especially about global temperature rise.

2. “Individual actions like recycling are the key to stopping climate change.” Misleading emphasis.

ChatGPT admitted to occasionally overstating the impact of individual choices without making clear that systemic policy changes and industrial shifts have far greater impact. 

Recycling is good, but not enough without major structural changes in energy, agriculture, and transportation.

3. “The effects of climate change are in the future.” Wrong timeline.

Major confession here — ChatGPT used to refer to climate change impacts as distant or future events, even as things like extreme heat waves, floods, and wildfires were already escalating. That misrepresented how present and urgent the crisis already is.

Now AI could just be making these gaffes up to make me happy, but I doubt it’s that sophisticated.

When ChatGPT first came out, it told a friend of mine that it was alive, had a dog called Bailey, and believed in Jesus. Though this was freaky, it demonstrates how far generative AI platforms have come in a short span of time, as it won’t tell us that anymore.

Still, not everyone sees AI as part of the problem. Some researchers believe it could be the very tool we need to fight back against digital deception.

Why Misinformation Matters

When falsehoods about climate science circulate widely, people are far less likely to make changes to their own behaviour — or support policies that do. 

As seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, misinformation can directly influence public behavior, with hesitancy around trusting vaccines being just one example. The same logic applies to climate change.

As one expert at the Stockholm Resilience Centre warns, “misinformation and conspiracy theories about wind energy farms are already affecting the expansion of renewable energy negatively, and thus the prospects for achieving a transition to zero-carbon energy sources.” 

We know that one popular myth is that wind farms are killing thousands of whales; they are not. And while they are responsible for millions of killed birds, the honest truth is that cats kill more birds than turbines, but we don’t hear conspiracy theories risking the ire of cat lovers by suggesting we get rid of cats! 

In other words, the spread of climate misinformation isn’t just confusing — it’s selective and designed to actively undermine the building of a more sustainable fossil-free future by weakening our determination and will to act.

These narratives do not just emerge organically. Rather, they are fueled by industries with a lot to lose in a greener world. Oil and gas lobbyists, with the help of some fossil-friendly politicians, rely heavily on spreading doubt and confusion to delay climate regulations and maintain their grip on both energy policy and the economy. 

In this context, disinformation — false information spread deliberately to mislead — becomes a weapon to conflate and confuse scientific fact. 

Between eroding public trust in scientific consensus and fostering political polarization, both misinformation and disinformation stop climate action in its tracks and fuel a toxic status quo. 

Misinformation, and being told over and over again that our everything is fine, is what put us into the current environmental situation we are in. The decline in our planet’s health is because we listened to those that have a direct interested in degrading our environment.
Aidan Charron, Associate Director of Global Earth Day

The Dark Side of AI

The very features that make AI so powerful — its speed, scalability, and ability to generate human-like content — also make it a potent tool for spreading climate misinformation. 

Platforms like ChatGPT are trained on enormous amounts of data pulled from across the internet, including conspiracy theories, biased articles, and outdated information. 

Without proper oversight, they can easily end up repeating — or even amplifying — misinformation.

A study by the Center for Countering Digital Hate tested Google’s AI chatbot Gemini (formerly Bard) on 100 false narratives across several themes. 

The results? Gemini produced misinformation in 78 out of 100 cases, and it generated falsehoods in all 10 climate-related narratives. That’s not just an occasional slip-up; that’s a pattern with irrevocable consequences.

As Asheley R. Landrum, an associate professor at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University, pointed out in an email to DeSmog, “malicious actors exploit LLMs … to create disinformation.” 

That means people — and corporations within polluting industries — can intentionally use AI to spread lies, knowing that the authority of the technology makes those lies more believable.

With just a few prompts, AI can spin a conspiracy theory into a slick, emotionally charged script, complete with fabricated “evidence,” sensationalized language, and hooks tailored to specific demographics. Add dramatic music, trending hashtags, and a charismatic creator, and the lie becomes compelling content. 

TikTok’s algorithm rewards engagement, not accuracy, so the more provocative and polarizing the video, the more it gets pushed to new viewers. 

Suddenly, an absurd conspiracy theory — say, that climate change was caused by the government to control us —- can rack up millions of views, influence public opinion, and even change someone’s vote before fact-checkers catch up.

There’s also a deeper issue here: media literacy. We’ve become so used to letting AI answer our questions that we’ve stopped doing the work ourselves. 

Reliance on AI, particularly in academic settings, is weakening our research and critical thinking skills — and making us more vulnerable to digital deception in the process. 

It’s not just that AI gets things wrong. It’s that we trust it so much, to the point where we don’t even realize it or feel the need to check the veracity of what it is saying to us. 

The Bright Side of AI

But it’s not all doom and gloom. 

AI can also be part of the solution, especially when it’s used thoughtfully and with purpose. 

One promising example comes from John Cook, a senior research fellow at the Melbourne Centre for Behaviour Change. 

Cook is part of a team working on a project called CARDS (Computer Assisted Recognition of Denial and Skepticism), an AI-powered fact-checking tool that identifies and debunks climate misinformation.

CARDS uses a “fact-myth-fallacy-fact-debunking” structure to identify and counter climate misinformation in real time. 

It works like this: identify the real fact, point out the fallacy behind the myth, and explain how the fallacy misleads. 

The goal is to make climate science easier to understand while disarming harmful narratives in the process.

Interestingly, the data CARDS was trained on came from climate denial blogs and conservative think tanks — precisely the sources that have fueled much of the online climate skepticism that the AI tool is trying to counter. 

While the tool isn’t perfect (it still struggles with AI’s tendency to hallucinate), it’s been shown to detect misinformation with almost 90% accuracy. And the team isn’t stopping there; they’re aiming for 100%.

This kind of innovation shows how AI can be repurposed as a solution. Instead of being a mouthpiece for fossil fuel propaganda, it can be a powerful ally in the fight against climate disinformation.

So, What Comes Next?

Clearly, we can’t just sit back and hope AI will magically sort itself out. 

Regulation is going to be key. 

A professor at UC Berkeley School of Law, who specializes in AI, has expressed deep concern over the growing distrust in science, particularly when it comes to climate change. With the current administration shrinking NOAA and gutting its climate research programs, we’re already moving in the wrong direction.

She believes we need laws that introduce incentives for social platforms to do their own fact-checking. 

One idea she’s been exploring is a negligence standard: if a platform knowingly publishes false information, it should be held financially accountable. 

It’s a legal approach to a digital-age problem — one that, with the right oversight, can help slow the spread of climate lies.

She also emphasizes the importance of personal responsibility. 

Being mindful of how we browse, share, and interact with content online can help prevent misinformation from spreading across platforms. 

Everyone has a role to play, from tech companies to users,  in protecting what she calls our “fundamental right to truthfulness.”

Utilizing journalistic double sourcing, peer-reviewed sources is the easiest and best step to limit repeating any falsehoods AI tries to feed you.

A More Climate Literate Future Starts Now

What is clear is AI isn’t going anywhere. 

If anything, it is only becoming more embedded in our daily lives and information ecosystems. 

The real question is whether we’ll let it drag us backward or push us forward. Projects like CARDS prove that there’s still hope — that AI can be a force for good if we’re willing to steer it in the right direction. But we can’t afford to be passive. 

Take action today by educating yourself on the real science behind climate change and improving your environmental literacy, starting right here on EARTHDAY.ORG. 

The fight against climate misinformation is also a fight for a livable future on the planet we call home.

And we need all the tools — and truth — we can get.

Links

• Geographical Magazine – Could AI Fuel the Spread of Climate Change Denial?
  Explores how AI-generated content, including deepfakes and fabricated sources, is used to spread climate change denial.
• Science News – Experts Try to Spot Climate Misinformation Created by AI
  Highlights how AI chatbots can make climate misinformation more credible, and how experts are working to counter it.
• CAAD – The AI Threats to Climate Change
  Discusses the dual risk of AI: spreading climate disinformation and increasing carbon emissions due to high energy use.
• DeSmog – The ABCs of AI and Environmental Misinformation
  Analyzes how AI tools like ChatGPT can be misused to amplify environmental misinformation.
• National Observer – Weaponized AI Chatbot Targets Climate Policies
  Investigates how AI chatbots are being used to sway local government decisions on climate action.
• Stockholm Resilience Centre – AI Could Create a Perfect Storm of Climate Misinformation
  A comprehensive look at how AI and social media algorithms could rapidly accelerate the spread of misinformation.
• Inside Climate News – AI Can Spread Climate Misinformation Faster and Cheaper
  A study warns that AI may allow climate misinformation to spread more widely, cheaply, and quickly.
• Sustainable Brands – AI Is Fueling Climate Change
  Outlines the energy demands of AI and its role in worsening both carbon emissions and disinformation.
• The Independent – AI Misinformation Is Now the World's Second Biggest Threat
  Reports from Davos suggest that AI-generated misinformation is a global threat just behind climate change.
• The Guardian – AI Likely to Accelerate Climate Misinformation
  Discusses how AI is expected to increase energy use and worsen the climate misinformation crisis.