REVIEW: Global Climate News - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
Reforestation's limited cooling effect UN Ocean Conference commences in Nice Prince William advocates for ocean protection EU advised against weakening climate targets May 2025 global temperature anomaly recorded

Climate change is accelerating. Forest research and ocean health conferences stress the need for immediate climate action.

Can Planting Trees Cool the Planet?

A recent study in Communications Earth & Environment looked at what would happen if we restored Earth’s forests to how they were before the industrial era. 

That means planting trees over about 4.6 million square miles of land.

The researchers found that doing this could cool the planet by about 0.34°C. The cooling happens in part because trees release natural chemicals (BVOCs) that help lower temperatures.

But the scientists also said this isn’t enough. Reforestation helps, but it won’t undo the warming already caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Lead author Bob Allen said we still need to cut those emissions in a big way.^[1]

Protecting the Oceans: A Global Gathering

On World Oceans Day, thousands of people from around the world came to Nice, France, for the United Nations Ocean Conference. The event began with a parade of research ships sailing into the Bay of Angels.

The goal of the meeting is to protect our oceans. Oceans are under threat from rising temperatures, plastic waste, and overfishing. 

A big focus this year is the 2023 High Seas Treaty. If enough countries sign it, the treaty could create protected zones in the open ocean, areas beyond any one country’s control.^[2]

Prince William Speaks Up for the Sea

Prince William made headlines at the Blue Economy and Finance Forum in Monaco. Speaking to world leaders, he urged them to take urgent action to protect marine life.

He reminded the audience that oceans cover 70% of Earth, provide half the oxygen we breathe, and support more than 3 billion people. Yet, only 3% of ocean waters are protected today.

His speech ties in with his Earthshot Prize work, which rewards practical solutions to environmental problems.^[3]

Europe Debates Climate Targets

In Europe, scientists are urging leaders not to back down on climate goals. 

The EU’s climate advisory board says the bloc should stick to its plan to cut emissions by 90% by 2040 (compared to 1990 levels).

Some EU governments want to weaken the plan or use carbon credits from other countries to meet their goals. But experts say this could slow down investments in clean energy and new technologies at home.^[4]

May Brings a Slight Cooling

There’s a bit of good news. May 2025 was slightly cooler than the past few months. 

The global average temperature was 1.393°C above pre-industrial levels. 

That’s still high, but it’s the first time since June 2023 that we’ve stayed below 1.4°C.^[5]

Footnotes

1. Reforestation's Limited Cooling Effect: Washington Post
2. UN Ocean Conference Commences in Nice: AP News
3. Prince William Advocates for Ocean Protection: People
4. EU Advised Against Weakening Climate Targets: Reuters
5. May 2025 Global Temperature Anomaly Recorded: Climate and Economy

REVIEW Australia’s Climate Crossroads: Fires, Floods, and a Wake-Up Call - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
Flooding in Queensland forces evacuations Koalas suffer during inland NSW heatwave Federal emissions target review announced UN report criticises adaptation preparedness

From inundated Queensland communities to wildlife collapses in inland NSW, the first week of June 2025 showed how climate extremes are becoming routine in Australia. 

Meanwhile, scrutiny mounted over the nation's climate policy, emissions goals, and preparedness for worsening conditions.

Queensland Floods Displace Hundreds

Torrential rainfall caused widespread flooding along Queensland's central coast between June 2–4, with towns including Mackay, Sarina, and Rockhampton seeing over 300mm of rain in two days. 

The Bureau of Meteorology attributed the deluge to a stalled tropical trough intensified by elevated sea surface temperatures [1].

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services issued multiple evacuation orders, and dozens of schools were closed. Infrastructure damage was still being assessed as floodwaters receded by week's end [2].

Koalas Suffer in NSW Autumn Heat

While Queensland endured floods, parts of western New South Wales sweltered under record-breaking early winter heat. 

Bourke, Cobar, and Walgett experienced temperatures 10–12°C above average. 

The NSW Wildlife Information, Rescue and Education Service (WIRES) reported a sharp increase in emergency koala rescues, with many suffering dehydration and heat stress [3].

A 2022 study by the University of Sydney previously warned that koalas in inland regions face “critical risk” from heatwaves exceeding 35°C, which are now occurring later into the year [4].

Federal Emissions Targets Under Review

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen announced a public consultation process to review Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction targets, in accordance with international obligations under the Paris Agreement [5].

Climate Council head of policy Jennifer Rayner welcomed the move but noted that Australia remains “off track” to meet its 2030 goals due to continued gas expansion and weak transport emissions standards [6].

UN Critiques National Adaptation Strategy

On June 6, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Adaptation Gap Report 2025, which included a case study on Australia. 

The report found that Australia’s National Adaptation Plan “lacks coherence and measurable targets,” and highlighted insufficient coordination across federal, state, and local governments [7].

The Insurance Council of Australia also warned this week that insurance premiums in vulnerable areas—especially flood zones—could become “unaffordable for many Australians” without major infrastructure investments [8].

Finally ...

The first week of June underscored Australia’s dual challenge: adapting to a harsher climate while reducing emissions that fuel it. 

As scientists, insurers, and international bodies sound alarms, pressure is mounting for the Albanese government to move faster on both fronts. 

For many Australians, from farmers to firefighters, the cost of delay is already clear.

Sources

1. ABC News – BOM Blames Trough, Sea Temps for Queensland Floods
2. Queensland Fire and Emergency Services – June 2025 Flood Response
3. WIRES – Koalas Rescued in Inland NSW Heatwave
4. University of Sydney – Heatwaves Put Inland Koalas at Critical Risk
5. Department of Climate Change – 2035 Emissions Targets Review
6. Climate Council – Australia Off Track for 2030 Goals
7. UNEP – Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Australia Chapter
8. Insurance Council of Australia – June 2025 Media Statement

Labor accused of ‘gaslighting’ Australians on climate crisis as fossil fuel projects keep getting approved

The Guardian - Lisa Cox Environment and climate correspondent

‘They offer sympathy and then just go and approve massive fossil fuel projects anyway,’ one advocate says

The environment minister, Murray Watt, who announced provisional approval for the extension of Woodside’s project to 2070 with ‘strict conditions’, and the prime minister, Anthony Albanese. Composite: Victoria Hart/AAP/Getty images

Australian federal and state governments have approved a wave of fossil fuel developments over the past six weeks, sparking accusations Anthony Albanese and other leaders are “gaslighting” the public – claiming they take the climate crisis seriously while pushing up emissions.

Peter Dunn, a former commissioner of emergency services for the Australian Capital Territory, says the Albanese government is “trashing its integrity” and has “lost their licence to lead, days after the election”.

Dunn, a member of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action who lived through the 2003 Canberra bushfires and the catastrophic 2019 fires at Lake Conjola on the New South Wales south coast, is furious about the government’s decision to greenlight Woodside’s extension of the North West Shelf gas processing plant.

“I’m bloody angry, bitterly disappointed, and I see a government that I was really hopeful for doing great things trashing its integrity,” he says.

“That’s the thing that’s really got me worked up at the moment – because there is no integrity in what I’m seeing [from the government] in the climate space whatsoever … You lose your integrity, you lose your licence to lead. They just lost their licence to lead, days after the election.”

Federal and state governments and agencies have approved several fossil fuel projects since April, ranging from large developments to smaller extensions.

They include the production operations for Santos’ Barossa offshore gas project off the Northern Territory, two coalmine extensions in NSW, Viva Energy’s floating gas terminal in Geelong, and nine new areas for gas exploration in Queensland. Decisions for other major projects are looming.

On 22 May, Albanese and the NSW premier, Chris Minns, travelled to Maitland to get a better grasp of the scale of the flood disaster extending from the NSW Hunter up to Coffs Harbour.

The prime minister told communities “You are not alone”, acknowledging that due to climate change “tragically, we’re seeing more extreme weather events”.

Six days later, the environment minister, Murray Watt, a former minister for emergency management, announced provisional approval for the extension of Woodside’s project to 2070 with “strict conditions”. A final decision is due soon.

When asked before the widely anticipated announcement how giving Woodside the green light aligned with Labor’s climate commitments, Albanese said last week “It is net zero, not zero” and “You don’t change a transition with warm thoughts”.

“I was really upset when I heard the prime minister say it’s net zero not actual zero,” says Serena Joyner, the chief executive of Bushfire Survivors for Climate Action.

 “It’s gaslighting, because you have to actually reduce emissions or climate change will just run away.

“It’s a cognitive disconnect.”

Joyner lives in the Blue Mountains, another region badly hit by the 2019-20 black summer fires. She estimates her family has a few years left in the area before they will have to move due to the difficulty of insuring as bushfire risk grows, driven by the climate disaster.

Bushfire Survivors for Climate Action (BSCA) was formed in 2018 to help ordinary people affected by climate-fuelled disasters engage with leaders. The group has spent years meeting with MPs, repeatedly sharing their stories and trauma to highlight the urgent need for climate policy action, which Joyner says brings a heavy emotional toll.

She says the early weeks of the re-elected Albanese government have led to “a reassessment of how to engage, because what we’ve been doing with Labor in the last couple of years, it’s hard to see how it’s working”.

“Being cooperative and playing nice with Labor isn’t getting us anywhere,” she says.

“We’re an organisation that works very hard to be reasonable, sensible: we don’t go to rallies, we don’t go to protests. We have meetings with politicians and tell them our stories.

“They offer sympathy and then just go and approve massive fossil fuel projects anyway.”

BSCA member Angela Frimberger says when governments approve new fossil fuel developments and expansions “climate-affected people want to know what governments are thinking, and do they care about their problems at all”.

“You just want to sit across a table from them and say, ‘What do you think is going to happen?’,” she says.

Frimberger lives on the edge of Lake Innes, south of Port Macquarie, on a property she and her family manage for biodiversity conservation.

Their house survived black summer but fire tore through half of the habitat, which they have since worked to regenerate and restore. The fires were followed by floods in 2022 and then the record-breaking event of May this year.

Days before Watt announced his North West Shelf decision, a soaked Frimberger stood in the rain filming a video for BSCA’s social media pages, saying: “It’s happening again, another unprecedented event” and “Minister Watt, please remember those of us out here”.

She says she was “devastated that our government would do this while reeling from a current disaster and still struggling to recover from past disasters”.

“The government is approving projects such that regular people like me have to pay the cost,” she says.

Georgina Woods is the head of research and investigations for the Lock the Gate Alliance, a national organisation that developed out of community opposition to fracking proposals. She says people feeling the effects of climate change are frightened about what the approval of new fossil fuel projects means for them.

“The business model of coal and gas companies is based on demand assumptions that are wholly inconsistent with preventing catastrophic levels of global warming,” Woods says.

“By giving these companies approval to expand their operations, the Australian government is telling all of us it expects this outcome too.”

North West Shelf gas extension will deliver 
‘almost nothing’ to Australia’s public purse
Read more

A government spokesperson said that “only Labor has a concrete, real plan to see our emissions reduce while ensuring our economy continues to grow”.

“As we’ve consistently said – gas has an important role to play in the transition as the ultimate backstop for renewables,” they said.

The government pointed to climate action during its first term, including reforms to the safeguard mechanism, which they said had “already begun to work”.

“This [North West Shelf] project is subject to those reforms, which means this plant is required to bring their emissions down each year and reach net zero by 2050 under the safeguard mechanism.”

Links

• North West Shelf gas extension approved until 2070
• Climate advocates devastated after Woodside North West Shelf project approved until 2070
• No one committed to Paris goals can seriously argue Woodside’s LNG project should operate until 2070 
• Pilbara Traditional Owner launches Federal Court bid to block North West Shelf approval 
• Merchants of Death
• Denialism and its impact on climate policy
• Australia’s gas expansion and the carbon budget

Merchants of Death

Pearls and Irritations - Julian Cribb

In extending the life of Australia’s North West Shelf gas project till 2070, the federal and WA Governments have knowingly signed the death warrants of four million human beings.

Author Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of six books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is “How to Fix a Broken Planet” (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

When a small child is confronted with a reality it does not like, it covers its eyes. Australia’s politicians, Labor, Liberal and National, are no better. 

In this country, and others, there is a powerful political consensus to deny the reality they have been informed about in countless, tested, scientific reports. 

This is a consensus to ignore the truth in favour of a manufactured political fantasy that will, ultimately, destroy Australia as a nation, along with most other countries, as global food and water systems collapse and chaos ensues.

Denial of reality is today an acknowledged form of psychosis, a universal mental illness, if you like. It occurs whenever “seemingly intelligent and sane adults vehemently deny truths despite a body of irrefutable evidence”. It infects politics in particular, in both democracies and autocracies.

While its more extreme forms are on daily display in countries such as Russia, the US, North Korea and Israel, the political process everywhere is to some degree contaminated by it.

Thanks to this global hallucination, between now and 2070, Australia will release an extra 78 billion petajoules of methane — euphemistically known as “natural gas” — with the warm approval of almost every government and most politicians.

Further, Australia plans to mine another 75 billion tonnes of coal, whose carbon emissions will in turn will claim a further 75 million human lives.

This calculation is based on the “ thousand tonne rule", which estimates that for every thousand tonnes of fossil fuels mined, the resulting climate chaos kills one person somewhere on Earth.

Climate deaths due to storms, floods, heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, disease and starvation are thought to average about a million a year at present, rising by 250,000 a year between now and 2050, according to the UN World Health Organisation. WHO warns that climate is a “threat multiplier” that nullifies the benefits of advanced healthcare, nutrition and clean water even in advanced countries. In other words, the death toll will rise exponentially as climate chaos accelerates.

That one small country should knowingly encompass more human deaths than World War II is an abomination. That it should do so while pretending, like a small child hiding its eyes, that there is nothing here to see is a stark metric of the moral turpitude of our governing class. No politician can pretend they have not been warned of the consequences of their actions. The warnings have come, thick and fast and ever stronger, for more than 50 years.

According to the World Meteorological Office, there is a 70% chance that between now and 2030, average global temperatures will exceed 1.5-degrees Celsius above pre-fossil fuel levels. The limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement to avert catastrophe will be shattered. The world could suffer its first +2 degree year by 2029.

At present rates, by 2100, the world will be +3.5 degrees if we implement all the pledged climate measures – and +4.5 degrees if we don’t. Bear in mind that all global heating predictions so far have been overtaken by reality much sooner than expected.

Global temperatures averaging +3-4 degrees Celsius are significant because that is the point at which worldwide crop failures and food system collapse become unavoidable. 

There will also be catastrophic water scarcity in many heavily populated or drier regions, including Australia. But also the Middle East, South Asia, North Asia, Central Asia, Central America, the US and southern Europe.

With the failure in the global food system comes failure in governments worldwide. And with that comes war, both civil and international. We know that much from history. With those events comes the collapse in the global economic system, which is based on imaginary “wealth” in any case. And with that, the refugee tsunami will swell into billions.

So opening up a few new gas wells, oil wells or coalfields is no longer a trivial act, or something to celebrate. It is an act of calculated, premediated, mass murder – and nobody who retains a shred of rationality can deny that. It unleashes incalculable horrors on society worldwide, from which Australians, and especially our children, will not be exempt.

It is a declaration of war on our grandchildren, ensuring for them a world that is functionally uninhabitable for centuries to come.

From now on every fossil fuel project proposed in Australia must be accompanied by a human impact statement, estimating the number of lives it will end or ruin, the consequences for food, water and peace – to set against the big dollar claims of greedy miners, politicians and media.

Australia, which proudly played a key role in helping to establish the United Nations and Declaration of Human Rights in the 1940s, cannot, must not, be implicated in the ongoing act of human auto-genocide.

Instead of being merchants of death, we must reclaim our former ideals, as leaders of a caring, peaceful and sustainable world to bequeath to our descendants.

Footnotes

• North West Shelf gas extension approved until 2070 – The Guardian
• IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Climate Change Risk Assessment 2021 – Chatham House
• Denialism and its impact on climate policy – National Institutes of Health
• Australia’s gas expansion and the carbon budget – Climate Analytics
• Australia Energy Policy Review 2023 – IEA
• The Thousand Tonne Rule and climate mortality – The Lancet Planetary Health
• Climate Change and Health – World Health Organization
• Climate Threats to Global Health – WHO Climate Report
• 70% chance of exceeding 1.5°C by 2030 – World Meteorological Organization
• Tracking Global Temperature Rise – NOAA Climate.gov
• Emissions Gap Report 2023 – UNEP
• Climate models underestimate actual warming – Nature
• Risk of multiple breadbasket failures – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• World Water Development Report 2023 – UN Water
• Climate and Conflict – Council on Foreign Relations
• Climate Change and Displacement – UNHCR

Australia 2050: Climate Chaos - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Summary

250,000 annual deaths worldwide, many of them Australian, from climate change[1] Warnings ignored by Australian leaders[4] Australia’s emissions tied to 75 million deaths[5] Northern Territory now a heat exclusion zone[7] Mass displacement from climate migration[8] Water rationing permanent in some States[9] Soaring suicide rates in rural areas[10] Insurance collapse in disaster-prone areas[11] Agriculture crippled by heat and drought[12] Over half of native species critically endangered[14] Great Barrier Reef lost[15] Political unrest and civil disobedience[16] First Nations culture scarred by climate loss[17]

It is 2050. Australia teeters on the brink. The coastlines have vanished into memory, bushfires devour what was once fertile farmland, and relentless heatwaves claim lives with a brutality that rivals war.

This isn’t the plot of a dystopian novel; it’s the bitter harvest of decades spent in denial, delay, and self-deception.

But it was never inevitable.

From now until 2050, the World Health Organisation warns that climate change will steal an extra 250,000 lives each year, many of them Australian, lost to heat stress, malnutrition, mosquito-borne diseases, and suffocating air^[1].

Hospitals, once sanctuaries, are buckling under the weight of the crisis. In cities like Perth and Darwin, the very air has become a health threat.

Australia, once proud of its world-class healthcare, now watches it unravel, battered by extreme weather, blackout chaos, and the exodus of doctors fleeing disaster zones.

This is no accident. This is the price of deliberate neglect.

Australia’s leaders saw the storm coming. They were warned by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change^[2], the World Meteorological Organization^[3], and their own scientists^[4].

They didn’t just ignore the warnings, they doubled down. They poured money into fossil fuels, greenlit new coalfields, and fast-tracked gas projects. They gambled away human futures for fleeting profits.

On current projections, Australia will have poured tens of billions more tonnes of carbon into the sky by 2070. The ‘thousand tonne rule’, one death for every thousand tonnes burned^[5], means Australia’s emissions alone could spell over 75 million preventable deaths worldwide. That’s more than World War II’s entire death toll^[6]. And all of it, done with eyes wide open.

By 2050, climate change isn’t just a threat, it’s the biggest risk to national security. The Northern Territory has become a heat exclusion zone^[7]. Millions are on the move: Pacific Islanders, South Asians, and Australians fleeing drought and disaster^[8]. The Defence Force now runs refugee camps on abandoned mines and parched cattle stations.

Social fabric? Torn apart.

When water is worth more than oil, society begins to unravel. In New South Wales and Queensland, water rationing is now a way of life^[9]. Suicide rates, especially among farmers and the young, have soared^[10]. Rural communities are vanishing. Ghost towns multiply.

Australia’s economy is a shadow of its former self. Insurers have abandoned flood and fire zones, now covering more than half the country^[11]. Real estate markets have collapsed under relentless disaster. Agriculture, once the nation’s pride, is crippled by drought and heat^[12]. The few crops that survive are often lost to megafires or locust swarms^[13]. Food prices have soared 600%. Supply chains have snapped. GDP has halved. Poverty is everywhere.

And nature? Nature is vanishing.

More than half of Australia’s unique species are now critically endangered or extinct^[14]. The Great Barrier Reef is only a memory^[15]. Eucalypt forests, scorched beyond recovery, are gone. Koalas, kangaroos, and countless others are now just stories in children’s books. With them, a core part of Australia’s identity has disappeared.

Politics has not survived unscathed. Trust in government is at rock bottom. Climate inaction has triggered mass protests, unrest, and violent crackdowns^[16]. Rolling blackouts sweep through cities, not from lack of resources, but from a broken climate. Everyone knows: this isn’t a natural disaster. It’s political manslaughter.

Culture has become a shell.

Dreamtime stories once celebrated by First Nations Elders are now laments of loss^[17]. Climate collapse is a wound too deep to heal. The Opera House still stands, but its performances are elegies. Australia, once a sunburnt paradise, is now a global warning, a nation that torched its future for mining royalties.

Every fire, every famine, every lost life, none of it was unavoidable.

Australia once helped found the United Nations and championed human rights. It once stood for peace, reason, and shared prosperity. That moral leadership has been traded for complicity in planetary destruction.

But choice remains. It always has.

From this day forward, not a single fossil fuel project should proceed without a legally binding Human Impact Statement, detailing every life it will cost, every farm it will destroy, every child it will doom to a burning world. The excuses are gone. The science is clear. The consequences are here.

Australia must decide: Will we lead the healing of a wounded world, or continue as merchants of death?

It’s time to reclaim the moral clarity we lost. To abandon the delusion of short-term gain and embrace the reality of long-term survival. Our children deserve better than a scorched wasteland. They deserve the country we once promised, and failed to deliver.

2050 is no longer a distant future. It is the verdict.

Footnotes

• [1] World Health Organization – Climate Change and Health
• [2] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), 2023
• [3] World Meteorological Organization – State of the Global Climate 2023
• [4] Climate Council of Australia – The Lost Years: Counting the Cost of Climate Inaction
• [5] The Guardian – Every 1,000 tonnes of CO₂ leads to one premature death, study estimates
• [6] United Nations – WWII Global Death Toll Archive
• [7] CSIRO – Australian Climate Futures Modelling
• [8] UNHCR – Climate Change and Displacement Report
• [9] National Water Grid Authority – Future Water Security in Australia
• [10] Australian Psychological Society – Climate Change and Mental Health
• [11] Insurance Council of Australia – Climate Risk and the Insurance Crisis
• [12] ABARES – Farm Performance and Climate Impacts
• [13] IPCC – Desertification and Food Security, Special Report on Climate Change and Land
• [14] WWF Australia – Living Planet Report 2024
• [15] ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies – Status of Coral Reefs
• [16] Lowy Institute – Climate, Democracy and Discontent in Australia
• [17] AIATSIS – First Nations’ Cultural Heritage and Climate Change

How Climate Change Could Spark the Wars of Tomorrow - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

As the planet heats, the risks of armed conflict, authoritarian crackdowns, and civil unrest are heating up with it.

Climate Conflict Triggers

• Water scarcity and food shocks
• Mass migration across fragile borders
• Heat-driven state collapse
• Militarisation of the Arctic
• Authoritarianism as ‘climate control’

Climate change is fast becoming a threat to global security. 

From the drought-ravaged Sahel to Pacific island nations on the brink of abandonment, a warming world is setting the stage for a more violent and divided future. 

According to the United Nations Environment Programme¹, environmental stress is now a central driver of conflict risk, especially in politically unstable regions.

Water Wars Are No Longer Science Fiction

In many parts of the world, shrinking water supplies are already inflaming political tensions. 

The World Resources Institute² reports that 25% of the global population lives in areas of “extremely high” water stress. 

The Nile Basin, the Tigris-Euphrates rivers, and India-Pakistan’s Indus system are all water flashpoints. 

Climate change is projected to increase these tensions by altering rainfall patterns and accelerating glacial melt, which supplies rivers in South and Central Asia.

Borders Under Siege

Mass migration, driven by climate shocks, is another looming fault line. 

\By 2050, as many as 216 million people³ could become climate migrants within their own countries, according to the World Bank. 

This does not include refugees who are already straining political systems across Europe and the United States. 

In Australia, the federal government’s 2020 Defence Strategic Update⁴ warns of instability and displacement in the Indo-Pacific, regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise and cyclonic devastation.

Climate Collapse and Civil War

Countries with weak governance are especially vulnerable. 

A 2015 study in PNAS⁵ linked prolonged drought, made more likely by climate change, to the outbreak of civil war in Syria. 

In sub-Saharan Africa, repeated climate shocks have undermined agricultural economies, led to resource-based conflicts, and helped extremist groups thrive amid chaos. 

The Pentagon has labelled climate change a "threat to national security”⁶ since 2014.

The Age of Climate Dictators?

As instability rises, so too may authoritarianism. 

Governments under siege from climate-fuelled unrest may respond with emergency laws, surveillance, and repression in the name of “eco-security".

From bushfire evacuations to pandemic lockdowns, recent history shows how easily civil liberties can be curtailed during perceived environmental emergencies. 

Climate breakdown could be used to justify indefinite suspension, or significant alteration, of legal order and the rule of law in democratic and non-democratic regimes alike, according to analysts at the Carnegie Endowment⁷.

Arming the Melting Arctic

The Arctic, once locked in ice, is now open for business - and conflict. 

Melting permafrost and sea ice are unlocking new shipping routes and fossil fuel reserves, and nations are rushing to assert territorial control. 

Russia has reopened military bases in the region, while NATO has increased patrols. 

A 2023 NATO briefing⁸ warned that Arctic militarisation could spark future confrontations if not carefully managed.

Why It Matters

War in a warming world may not look like traditional invasions.

it will be fought over droughts, borders, and resource collapse. 

Climate change is not only an environmental emergency.

 It is a political and military risk that could fracture fragile states, stir nationalist aggression, and usher in new forms of authoritarian control. 

As the thermometer rises, so does the potential for chaos.

Footnotes

1. UNEP: Climate Security Risks
2. WRI: Global Water Stress
3. World Bank: Climate Migration
4. Australia 2020 Defence Strategic Update
5. PNAS: Drought and the Syrian War
6. Center for Climate & Security: Climate as National Security Threat
7. Carnegie: Authoritarianism and Climate
8. NATO: Arctic Security Briefing

Australia’s National Security Under Siege from Climate Change - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
Climate disasters strain ADF logistics and response capacity. Sea-level rise and extreme weather threaten military infrastructure. Regional instability linked to resource scarcity and displacement. Defence planning increasingly frames climate as a threat multiplier.

Climate Chaos Moves Into the War Room

When Australians picture national security, they may think of cyberattacks, military exercises, or maritime patrols. 

But Australia’s top defence thinkers are now issuing warnings about a slower, more insidious threat: climate change. 

The Australian Defence Force (ADF) has been called on repeatedly in the last five years to respond not to foreign attacks but to fires, floods, and cyclones. 

From the devastating Black Summer fires of 2019–2020 to the catastrophic east coast floods of 2022, troops are increasingly deployed on home soil for climate disaster response, placing sustained pressure on a military designed for combat, not climate aid. 

According to the 2024 National Defence Strategy^[1], climate change is now explicitly recognised as a “threat multiplier”—a factor that exacerbates existing risks and challenges, both domestically and abroad.

Infrastructure at Risk

Much of Australia's defence infrastructure—airbases, naval ports, training grounds—sits precariously on the coast. 

Rising seas and intensifying storms are not distant possibilities. 

They are material threats. 

 Take RAAF Base Darwin, located just metres above sea level. 

A study by the Climate Council^[2] found that dozens of critical ADF facilities are vulnerable to climate-driven hazards including inundation and bushfire smoke. 

Equipment damage, reduced readiness, and costly repairs are already on the ledger.

Disaster Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific

Beyond its borders, Australia faces growing responsibilities as a stabiliser in the climate-volatile Indo-Pacific. 

Island nations like Tuvalu and Kiribati are on the frontline of rising seas and freshwater scarcity. 

These environmental shifts are fuelling migration, political instability, and humanitarian crises. 

As competition for influence in the Pacific intensifies—particularly between China and the U.S.—Australia must navigate climate diplomacy as geopolitics. 

The ADF’s humanitarian missions in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and Tonga are now as critical to soft power as any treaty.

Conflicts Over Water and Food

Resource scarcity is no longer abstract. 

In Australia’s interior, prolonged drought and heatwaves are tightening agricultural output, while water rights battles—such as those around the Murray-Darling Basin—become flashpoints. 

Globally, the 2021 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report^[3] warned of increasing risks of violent conflict over dwindling natural resources. 

Australia’s defence and intelligence communities must now consider scenarios where climate-driven desperation—not ideology—fuels security threats.

A Call to Preparedness

The shift is underway. 

The 2023 Defence Strategic Review^[4] called for climate resilience to be “mainstreamed” into all aspects of planning. 

Yet experts argue Australia still lacks a comprehensive Climate Security Strategy, leaving the nation reactive rather than proactive.

“We are playing catch-up in a rapidly destabilising environment,” warns Professor Michael Thomas of the Australian National University’s Climate Security Policy Centre^[5]. “Resilience must now be baked into every tank, port, and policy.”

Conclusion

Climate change isn’t coming for national security; it’s already inside the perimeter. 

Whether it’s burned landscapes, flooded runways, or political upheaval in neighbouring states, the line between climate impact and national defence is blurring fast. 

The question is no longer whether climate will shape Australia’s security future, but whether the country will be ready in time. 

Footnotes

1. 2024 National Defence Strategy – Department of Defence
2. Critical Infrastructure at Risk – Climate Council
3. 2021 IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – Working Group II
4. 2023 Defence Strategic Review – Department of Defence
5. Climate Security Policy Centre – ANU