Military experts warn of climate wars - Julian Cribb

Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

AUTHOR

Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

“Accelerating climate disruption is the greatest threat to the human future: our safety and wellbeing, our homes and communities, and how and where we live and work,” a group of leading Australian military and security experts says.

The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG) warns that climate impacts are accelerating faster than expected, at a time when global miliary alliances are ‘in turmoil’, creating a far more dangerous world.

“This risks Australia being dragged into a war with China on the losing side,” the Group, which consists of former military and intelligence top brass, said with devastating bluntness.

“Australia needs a contemporary framing of security that places the biggest threat to our future — climate disruption — at the centre of defense and foreign policy,” it said in ‘A climate-first foreign policy for Australia’.

The report is one of the most honest statements to emerge from the traditionally circumspect security hierarchy anywhere in the world. It applies not only to Australia but to most countries.

It follows ‘Too Hot to Handle’, the Group’s previous admonition on the security threat posed by climate, released in May 2024. This was cold-shouldered by the Albanese Government, which has recently sanctioned a further 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon emissions from coal.

The ASLCG leadership mounts a serious broadside. It includes former Australian Defence chief Admiral Chris Barrie, former Dept of Defence preparedness director Cheryl Durant, former Deputy Chief of the Royal Australian Air Force John Blackburn, and Ian Dunlop, the former chair of the Australian Coal Association.

“We are heading towards levels of warming that will not support humanity as we know it. There will be widespread food insecurity, economic destabilisation, large-scale people displacement, war, failed states and social collapse for which Australia and the world are almost totally unprepared,” they say.

“Climate risks are global, cascading and systemic, and not containable within borders, so the response requires unprecedented international cooperation and a collective mobilisation of resources unprecedented in peacetime to protect humanity’s future.”

The Australian study stands in strident contrast to developments in the US where Trump has gagged the Pentagon, along with other government departments, from even mentioning the word climate. In previous studies US security and defence agencies saw climate as a major security threat. 

Now there are warnings that the US is arming itself for a world that does not exist in reality. These are augmenting perceptions among its former allies that the US is now an untrustworthy friend – and global relationships need to be rethought.

Europe, by contrast, is far more open in acknowledging the military threat posed by climate change, and building it into its defence and diplomatic strategies. 

“Climate change is an accelerator and multiplier of disasters, instability and conflict, requiring European forces to adapt to operations in a changing climate. The increasing risks from climate change mean that it is shifting from being solely a human security threat to a national security threat, both to Europe and to its strategic interests,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.

These postures point to the possibility of a major global strategic realignment, with the climate-denying axis led by the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other petrostates on one side and the ‘realists’ led by Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan and China on the other. 

Thus, a new Cold War between the Fossil states and a Green Alliance looms – a fight for the human future.

Setting aside the old political friction points for a moment, China is now the unchallenged global leader in green energy, having installed around 40 per cent of global capacity so far. 

In 2024, its green energy investment topped $818 billion. 

Electric cars, trains, batteries, panels, devices, drones and robots are the bow wave in its transformation to a green, low-carbon electro-economy that will leave the fossil-run US beached like a Basilosaurus.

China is often criticised for continuing to burn coal. It remains the world’s largest coal burner and carbon emitter – but that is changing, fast: coal supplies around 56% of grid power now, down from 90%, and renewables are up to 41%. 

The Chinese oil and gas giant Sinopec anticipates Chinese coal consumption to peak this year and carbon emissions to peak before 2030. 

Parallelling this is spectacular growth in the country’s hydrogen economy.

Whether this track record is enough to make China hegemon of a global green alliance is still open to question – but one fact is unarguable: China is the world frontrunner in electric cars, photovoltaic cells and batteries. 

Anyone who wants to transform to the low carbon economy (as well as save money) will find Chinese technology essential.

China’s switch to green energy will also reduce its dependence on imported Russian oil, and India is likely to follow suit, placing both giants increasingly in the green camp. 

This will strike a heavy blow to global coal and oil exports – and any country that depends on them.

The ASLCG report correctly reads the tectonic shifts now taking place in global geopolitics. 

Its formula for a climate-first foreign and defence policy is one that every country now needs to absorb:

1. Commitment to deep cooperation with nations that prioritise climate disruption risks, with climate-focused agreements on tax, trade, technology, finance, equity and the like.
2. Diplomatic leadership in high-ambition alliances, such as agreements: to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and international financing; to phase out the fossil fuel economy; and for a regional economic climate mobilisation.
3. Understanding the risks with mandated and regular climate-related security risk assessments, with outcomes shared with neighbours.
4. Full integration of climate risk into defence and security planning, humanitarian response, and conflict prevention efforts.
5. Greater support for vulnerable and frontline nations, increased climate finance and leadership legal frameworks to address climate displacement and migration.

The ASLCG report is a trailblazing vision of where an enlightened, informed and caring humanity might go in the face of the brutal escalation in climate impacts. 

It does not canvass the full catastrophic crisis facing humanity by any means. 

But, on its ground, it is a realistic and pragmatic call for a new way to envision our future – and opens the mind to prospects for a new Global Order to bring it about.

Links

• The great dying – Julian Cribb
• Humanity is risking catastrophe, UN warns – Julian Cribb
• The great human brain fade… – Julian Cribb Julian Cribb Substack
• Julian Cribb Official Website 
• What is the Polycrisis?- Scientific American

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Brisbane 2050: Climate’s Crossroads - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
Temperatures may rise by up to 4°C by 2050 [6] Days above 35°C will more than triple by 2050 [2] Sea levels could rise by up to 0.8m this century [11] Extreme fire weather days will sharply increase [16] Brisbane City Council aims for net zero by 2035 [5]

Brisbane faces a hotter, drier, and more uncertain climate by mid-century.

It will be shaped by the growing force of climate change ^[15].

By 2050, Brisbane will experience hotter days, more extreme weather, sea level rise, ecological shifts, economic disruptions and new cultural challenges ^[15].

Here is what science, policy and society say about the path ahead ^[15].

Hotter Days, Longer Heatwaves

Brisbane’s summers will be hotter ^[15].

Average annual temperatures are expected to rise by 1.2°C to 2.1°C by 2050, depending on emissions policy ^[11].

There may be three times as many days over 35°C, with the city potentially facing several weeks of dangerous heat rather than a handful each year ^[12].

Nights above 25°C will also become more common, reducing relief and increasing health risks ^[12].

Heatwaves will pose a particular hazard for vulnerable groups: the elderly, children, those with chronic illness ^[15].

More Extreme Fire Weather

Brisbane’s future climate will be marked by more severe bushfire conditions ^[15].

Hotter, drier seasons will fuel harsher fire weather, increasing the likelihood that the city’s fringe and regional landscapes will see extreme fire days and longer seasons ^[14].

Scientists predict major increases in fire risk, with councils and emergency services needing more resources and adaptive infrastructure ^[14].

Changing Rainfall, Intense Downpours

Rainfall variability will remain high, but annual rainfall may decrease slightly by mid-century ^[11].

Most of the reduction is likely in winter and spring, while summer and autumn patterns may stay relatively stable ^[11].

One concerning trend is the expected rise in short, intense downpours, with extreme rainfall events likelier and stronger ^[1].

These changes will challenge water management, urban drainage, farming, and emergency response ^[1].

Rising Sea Level and Coastal Risks

Projections suggest a sea level rise of about 26 cm by 2050 for Brisbane’s coast ^[11].

Suburbs, wetlands and infrastructure, including parts of Brisbane Airport, Boondall Wetlands, Albion, Sandgate, and Port of Brisbane, risk inundation, storm surge and erosion ^[11].

These impacts threaten not just homes and public assets but vital hubs ^[1].

Economic Impacts and Industry Risks

Brisbane’s economy, built on services and tourism, will experience new stresses ^[1].

Higher temperatures, storms, floods and fires may disrupt supply chains, raise insurance costs, threaten workplaces and decrease productivity ^[1].

The agricultural sector may face greater water stress, crop heat damage, and more frequent pest outbreaks ^[1].

Tourism, reliant on local natural assets, could suffer as bushfires and extreme weather damage sites and deter visitors ^[1].

Social and Health Strains

Climate change will shape daily life as heatwaves and extremes challenge social cohesion, health, and wellbeing ^[1].

Heat stress and dehydration will increase, particularly among the elderly and disadvantaged ^[1].

Mental health services will encounter higher demand, especially in rural and regional areas ^[1].

Communities will need adaptive public spaces, “cool zones”, and proactive support networks ^[1].

Political Action: Council Targets and Gaps

Brisbane City Council aims to cut emissions by 30% by 2032 (from 2016-17), and reach net zero by 2050 ^[5].

Actions include LED street lighting, solar, net zero buses, recycling and local investment in emissions reduction ^[5].

Still, scientists warn current policy trajectories aren’t enough to prevent dangerous warming ^[16].

Queensland still approves new coal and gas, and lacks robust plans for adaptation ^[16].

Ecology and Biodiversity: Threats to Icons

Brisbane’s rainforests, wetlands, and marine environments are at risk ^[1].

Higher temperatures and less rainfall will stress urban vegetation, with many local species losing habitat ^[1].

Moreton Bay Marine Park and wetlands may suffer rising seas and warming waters, threatening migratory species and fragile ecosystems ^[1].

Efforts to create wildlife corridors and preserve biodiversity are underway, but climate stresses may outpace adaptation ^[1].

Culture and Community: Defining a New Normal

Cultural identity and rituals will change as residents respond to more frequent climate events ^[1].

Floods and bushfires influence festivals, sports and daily patterns ^[1].

Artists, writers, educators and Indigenous leaders will engage with climate themes, inspiring resilience and sustainability ^[1].

The Road Forward: Action Required

By 2050, Brisbane’s climate will be hotter, more turbulent and unpredictable ^[1].

If local and state leaders move fast, including halting fossil fuel, boosting adaptation, and investing in green solutions, the worst impacts might be avoided ^[16].

Otherwise, the new normal will bring disruption, loss and relentless adaptation ^[1].

The city stands at a crossroads, not just of technical solutions, but of collective will and culture ^[16].

References

1. Climate Change in South East Queensland – Impact Summary (Queensland Government)
2. How Hot Will Your Neighbourhood Be by 2050 (Climate Council)
3. Moreton Bay Foundation: Sea Level, Ecosystems
4. Queensland Climate Change Science
5. Brisbane City Council: Climate Action
6. Moreton Bay Foundation: Temperature and Rainfall
7. Mapping Sea Level Rises in Brisbane (Reddit)
8. Climate Council: Disaster Ground Zero

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Darwin 2050: Scorching Days and Rising Seas - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Darwin faces up to 4°C rise by mid century [2] Days above 35°C may exceed 100 annually [1] Sea level rise threatens sacred sites and housing [5] Heat stress undermines health and productivity [3] Adaptation demands urgent coordinated policy [6]

Darwin is edging closer to a climate breaking point as heat intensifies and seas rise.

The city already sweats through longer and more intense heat waves.

This is only the beginning.

By 2050 average temperatures may rise up to 4°C ^[2].

Days above 35°C which numbered about 12 per year before 2000 could top well over 100 by the 2030s ^[1].

The CSIRO warns of up to a fourfold increase in such hot days if emissions continue at the present rate ^[1].

Prolonged heat events will drive up hospital admissions especially for chronic illnesses and place pressure on Darwin’s power and water supplies ^[3].

Fire Rain and Weather Wildness

Heat will fuel bushfire risks in the Top End’s rural fringe.

While the wet season will persist rainfall patterns are set to become increasingly erratic amplifying both drought and deluge ^[4].

Short tropical downpours may intensify, causing flash floods across low-lying suburbs.

The Bureau of Meteorology notes Darwin may resemble Jabiru’s hotter drier build-ups and stormier wet seasons ^[4].

A City at the Shoreline

Sea level rise is no longer theoretical in Darwin’s suburbs.

By 2050 coastal inundation and tidal flooding will reshape foreshore development degrade mangrove buffers and threaten Indigenous sacred sites ^[5].

The Larrakia people face profound loss if culturally significant places erode or drown.

Tourism assets like beach markets and waterfront precincts will demand costly adaptation, while insurance for coastal homes grows increasingly unaffordable.

Social and Economic Disruption

Without serious intervention, Darwin’s economy will feel the heat as much as its streets.

More frequent heat stress days reduce worker productivity and increase operational costs across sectors ^[1][5].

Cattle stations and agriculture will contend with new diseases shifting rainfall and biosecurity threats.

Low income residents often without air conditioning face disproportionate health risks, widening Darwin’s social divide ^[1].

Economic modelling forecasts sharp upticks in cooling health and productivity costs without accelerated action ^[1][2].

Cities and Countryside Culture and Community

As Darwin absorbs rising migrant populations, housing stress compounds especially for First Nations people already facing inequity.

Social practices like night markets and outdoor festivals face interruptions as nighttime minimums rise ^[3].

In the bush fire management becomes more complex requiring blends of Indigenous knowledge and Western firefighting.

Political and Policy Crossroads

The City of Darwin declared a climate emergency in 2019 and targets net-zero by 2040 ^[1].

Local government invests in green shading tree planting and cool roofs with CSIRO collaborations ^[1].

The Northern Territory Climate Change Response envisions net-zero by 2050, but critics argue it lags what is required ^[6].

Environmental advocates call for legislating 100 per cent renewables and rapid infrastructure upgrades ^[6].

Coordinated adaptation across energy water housing and health will determine Darwin’s resilience ^[2][6][1].

The Path to 2050: What Must Change

Darwin’s choices today will either blunt or intensify tomorrow’s hardship.

Scientists insist halving emissions by 2030 and embedding heat reflective and nature based solutions are essential ^[2][6].

Failing to act will transform the city into a test case of global inaction, with each degree amplifying losses ^[2][1].

But bold interventions blending Indigenous knowledge, science, and community engagement could make Darwin a global model of resilience ^[1][2][3].

References

1. Darwin’s projected days above 35°C and climate overview
2. Urban heat islands and adaptation in Darwin
3. Heatwaves and health impacts
4. Seasonal and rainfall projections for Darwin
5. Sea level rise and coastal impacts
6. Required climate action and advocacy in the NT

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Perth 2050: On the Climate Frontline - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Twice as many days above 35 °C by 2050 [1] Winter rainfall to drop up to 29% [2] Sea level rise of 24–30 cm locked in [3] Heat-related deaths could rise >60% [4] Hospital admissions from heat to surge [5] High fire danger days up ~40% [6] Government target, net zero by 2050 [7] Residents concerned about inaction [8]

By 2050, Perth will face hotter temperatures, longer heatwaves, more dangerous fire weather, falling winter rain, and a rising sea level.

This will reshape every facet of life across social, economic, and cultural domains in Perth.^[1][2][3]

The city's climate trajectory hinges on stronger action.

As of 2025, climate policies lag behind the urgency of scientific warnings, with net-zero ambitions needing tougher, faster implementation to avert the harshest future impacts.^[7][8]

The New Heat Era

Perth’s future is set to blaze.

By 2050, the city is projected to endure twice as many days over 35 °C each year, with extreme heat likely to stretch for a whole month or more each summer.^[1]

Average temperatures will rise by 1.7–2 °C or more, depending on emissions trajectory, with heatwaves becoming longer, more intense, and deadlier.^[2]

Water Scarcity and Drought

Winter and spring rainfall are forecast to drop by up to 29% by mid-century in a high emissions scenario.^[2]

The drying trend that’s gripped south-western WA since the 1970s shows no sign of abating.

Heavy rain events may become more intense, but extended droughts will also unravel, reducing inflow into dams, stressing agriculture, and threatening water security.

Rising Seas and Coastal Risk

Sea levels in Perth are locked in to climb 24–30 cm by 2050, even if emissions fall sharply now.^[3]

Iconic beaches, river foreshores, and low-lying suburbs such as Elizabeth Quay and sections of East Perth face mounting inundation, a new frontline in the city’s adaptation challenge.

During storms, coastal flooding will intensify, threatening infrastructure and property, with hundreds of homes at future risk.^[3]

Hotter, Longer Fire Seasons

Climate change will bring about 40% more days of very high fire danger in Perth by 2050.^[6]

Bushfires will start earlier, burn longer, and cover larger areas.

The city will need a dramatic ramp-up of firefighting resources, community preparedness, and hazard reduction strategies to keep pace.

Health and Social Impacts

Heat-related deaths in Perth are projected to rise by more than 60%, with those over 75 most at risk.^[4]

Hospital admissions for heat events are set to surge by an estimated 34%, costing the healthcare system over $30 million annually and straining stretched resources.^[5]

Vulnerable communities, including the elderly, outdoor workers, and those in poorly insulated housing, face elevated health risks and financial hardship.

Economic Fallout

Perth’s famed outdoor lifestyle and livability will come under threat.

Agricultural supply chains, vital for food and jobs, face disruption from heatwaves and water shortages.

Tourism, recreation, and sectors reliant on green spaces all risk decline, unless urgent measures are undertaken to make the city climate-resilient and inclusive.

Insurance premiums are forecast to rise as extreme weather claims climb, coastal businesses must brace for flooding and erosion.

Political Pace and Public Sentiment

In 2025, government policy targets net zero emissions by 2050—but action is slow and fragmented.^[7]

Less than half of Perth’s residents believe current climate strategies will be enough.^[8]

Decarbonisation of the grid, expansion of public transport, urban greening, and stricter building codes are essential but lagging.

Political debate is heated, with increasing demand for bolder leadership and faster adaptation plans focusing on community resilience and renewable energy.

Ecological Transformation

As heat intensifies and rainfall drops, urban tree canopy and native biodiversity are under threat.

Coastal erosion will reshape beaches and foreshore habitats, marine environments will warm and acidify, pressuring fisheries and ecosystems.

A new “urban greenbelt” movement is taking shape, with communities pushing to expand tree cover, restore habitat corridors, and bolster local food production.

Cultural Shifts and Community Response

Perth’s culture is already evolving in response to climate anxieties.

Residents increasingly call for adaptation through sustainable design, climate-resilient infrastructure, and more equitable access to green spaces.^[8]

There is rising activism among youth, artists, and Indigenous leaders seeking to integrate tradition and technology, demanding a safer, cleaner, and fairer future for all.

The Western Australian Government’s urban greening strategy remains a battleground for public advocacy and policy improvement.

Climate Action: Then and Now

At present, Perth’s climate actions are promising but insufficient.

The State Government commits to net zero by 2050, but renewable adoption rates remain among Australia’s lowest, and political debate clouds bolder interim targets.

Residents and experts agree that only rapid, deep emission cuts, robust climate adaptation, and far-reaching social investment will shield Perth from becoming increasingly “unliveable”.^[8]

Perth’s climate is on a knife edge—on action taken between now and 2030 depends whether its future is merely hotter and harder, or the vanguard of global sustainability.

References

1. Climate Council, How hot will your neighbourhood be by 2050
2. WA Government, Western Australian Climate Projections, Summary
3. Climate Impacts Tracker, Sea Level Rise in Australia
4. WA Health, Projecting Heat-related Health Impacts under Climate Change in Perth
5. Committee for Perth, Perth 2050 Report
6. Climate Council, Extreme Heat and Bushfires in WA
7. WA Government, Western Australian Climate Change Policy
8. Committee for Perth, Resident Sentiment 2050

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Adelaide 2050: A City on the Climate Frontline - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Temperatures to rise 1.5–2°C by 2050[1] Rainfall projected to decrease 7%[2] Sea levels rising up to 25 cm[3] Extreme fire days increasing 15–70%[4] SA reduced emissions 42% since 2005[5] 70% renewable electricity generation[6]

Adelaide faces a climate crisis that by 2050 will reshape its society, economy, and environment.

The eucalyptus trees lining Adelaide's boulevards may look the same in 2050, but the city they shade will be fundamentally transformed.

As South Australia's elegant capital approaches mid-century, climate scientists paint a stark picture of a metropolis grappling with unprecedented environmental pressures that will change everything from daily life to the region's economic foundations.

The Heat is On

Adelaide residents will endure significantly hotter conditions, with average temperatures projected to increase between 1.5°C and 2.0°C across all seasons by 2050^[1].

The frequency and duration of heatwaves will intensify dramatically, transforming summer from a challenging season into a potentially deadly ordeal for vulnerable populations.

Climate researchers warn that extreme heat days exceeding 35°C will become increasingly common, with some projections suggesting Adelaide could experience temperatures approaching 50°C during severe heat events.

These temperature increases will fundamentally alter how Adelaide's 1.4 million residents live, work, and socialise, forcing adaptations that previous generations never imagined necessary.

When the Rains Don't Come

Water, already precious in South Australia's Mediterranean climate, will become even more scarce as average rainfall decreases by 7 per cent by 2050^[2].

The greatest decline will occur during spring, traditionally a crucial period for agricultural productivity and urban water storage replenishment.

This reduction, combined with increased evaporation from higher temperatures, will strain Adelaide's water security and force costly investments in desalination and water recycling infrastructure.

The Murray River, Adelaide's primary water source, faces its own climate-driven challenges upstream, potentially compounding the city's water stress.

Rising Seas, Sinking Suburbs

Coastal Adelaide suburbs face an existential threat as sea levels rise up to 25 centimetres by 2050^[3].

Tennyson, West Lakes, and Port Adelaide, areas already at risk, could experience regular flooding during king tides and storm surges, potentially rendering some properties uninhabitable.

The economic implications are staggering, with property values in low-lying areas likely to plummet as insurance becomes prohibitively expensive or unavailable entirely.

Adelaide's iconic coastal lifestyle, from beach cricket at Glenelg to weekend sailing on Gulf St Vincent, will be increasingly disrupted by erosion and infrastructure damage.

Fire and Fury

Perhaps no threat looms larger than the escalating bushfire risk, with days experiencing high-to-extreme fire danger projected to increase by 15–70% by 2050^[4].

The Adelaide Hills, home to thriving wine regions and tree-change communities, will face unprecedented fire weather conditions that challenge current emergency response capabilities.

Traditional prescribed burning windows are shrinking as the climate dries, making fuel reduction increasingly difficult and dangerous for fire management agencies.

The economic cost of bushfire damage is expected to more than double, with insurance premiums and building codes likely to reflect the new reality of living in a fire-prone landscape.

Economic Transformation

Adelaide's economy will undergo profound restructuring as climate impacts ripple through traditional industries.

The renowned Barossa and Adelaide Hills wine regions face existential challenges as changing rainfall patterns and extreme heat threaten grape quality and vineyard viability.

Agriculture across the broader region will require massive adaptation investments, from drought-resistant crops to climate-controlled growing facilities.

Conversely, new economic opportunities will emerge in renewable energy manufacturing, climate adaptation technologies, and sustainable urban design—sectors where Adelaide is already showing leadership.

Social and Cultural Shifts

The rhythms of Adelaide life will change fundamentally as extreme weather events become routine rather than exceptional.

The city's famous outdoor festival culture, from the Adelaide Festival to WOMADelaide, will require radical reimagining as summer events become dangerous or impossible.

Housing design will prioritise cooling over heating, with traditional Adelaide stone cottages potentially requiring costly retrofits to remain liveable during extended heatwaves.

Public health systems will face unprecedented strain as heat-related illnesses surge, particularly affecting elderly residents and those without adequate cooling.

Political Reckoning

The gap between current climate action and what science demands has created a political tinderbox that will likely explode before 2050.

While South Australia has made impressive progress - reducing emissions by 42 per cent since 2005 and generating over 70 per cent of electricity from renewable sources^[5][6] - global emissions continue rising.

The state's recently introduced legislation targeting 60 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050 represents ambitious local action, but Adelaide's fate remains tied to global efforts.

Young Adelaideans, who will bear the brunt of climate impacts, are increasingly demanding transformative action that goes beyond current incremental policies.

Ecological Upheaval

Adelaide's unique Mediterranean ecosystem will face unprecedented stress as native species struggle to adapt to rapidly changing conditions.

The city's famous parklands and street trees will require complete replanting with climate-resilient species, fundamentally altering Adelaide's green character.

Local bird and animal populations will shift dramatically, with some species disappearing while others migrate from northern regions, creating novel ecosystems with unpredictable interactions.

Urban heat islands will intensify, making tree cover and green infrastructure not just aesthetic choices but essential survival infrastructure.

The Path Forward

Adelaide stands at a crossroads where current climate action, though impressive by Australian standards, falls short of preventing severe disruption.

The city's transition to renewable energy provides a foundation, but adaptation measures from flood barriers to cooling centres require massive acceleration.

Urban planning must prioritise climate resilience, abandoning development in high-risk areas while densifying safer zones with climate-smart design.

Whether Adelaide emerges from this transformation as a model of climate adaptation or a cautionary tale of insufficient action will depend on decisions made in the next five years.

The window for gradual change is closing rapidly, and Adelaide's residents must prepare for a future that will test every assumption about life in one of Australia's most liveable cities.

References

1. How City of Adelaide responds to climate change
2. Climate Ready City
3. Temperature trends – Climate
4. Bushfires in Australia: a serious health emergency under climate change
5. Strengthening South Australia's response to climate change
6. Strengthening South Australia's response to climate change

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Melbourne 2050: Facing Climate’s Crucible - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Melbourne could warm by up to 1.7°C by 2050[1] Heatwaves and days above 37°C will triple in frequency[2] Rainfall declines but extreme downpours intensify[3] Sea levels projected to rise 12–26 cm by 2050[4] Fire weather danger days to increase significantly[5] Victoria has cut emissions 32% since 2005[6] Adaptation will need to be transformative[7]

Melbourne is approaching 2050 under mounting climate pressure that demands rapid adaptation and bold emission reductions.

The city's climate is changing dramatically, with projections showing hotter days, longer heatwaves, and shifting rainfall patterns.^[1][2]

Average annual temperatures could rise by up to 1.4°C in a low emissions scenario, or 1.7°C under high emissions, compared to 1986–2005 levels.^[1]

Heat extremes will be more severe, and the city may face three times as many days over 37°C by 2050.^[2]

Social Impacts

Vulnerable communities will be disproportionately affected by heat stress, worsening the urban heat island effect in expanding suburbs.^[2]

Public health will be challenged, with increased hospital admissions for heat-related illness and respiratory conditions driven by bushfire smoke.^[5]

Access to affordable cooling, safe housing and emergency services will be critical as extreme weather pressures social infrastructure.^[2]

Economic Consequences

Melbourne’s economy will face disruptions, as droughts and reduced rainfall hit agriculture, and floods and fires threaten property and infrastructure.^[3]

Insurance costs for homes and businesses in flood-prone or fire-vulnerable areas are likely to rise.^[4]

The clean energy transition will reshape industry, with Victoria targeting net-zero by 2045, though the pace must accelerate to limit 2050 risks.^[6]

Ecological Shifts

Cool season rainfall in autumn, winter and spring could decrease by up to 15%, stressing parks, waterways and gardens that define Melbourne’s liveability.^[3]

Extreme rainfall events, up to 20–40% heavier, threaten floodplains and rivers, while bushfires are set to become more frequent.^[5]

Sea levels around Melbourne are projected to rise 12–26 cm by 2050, threatening coastal habitats and suburban communities around Port Phillip Bay.^[4]

Political Will and Climate Action

Victoria’s climate action legislation is ambitious, aiming for a 75–80% emissions reduction by 2035 and net-zero by 2045.^[6]

Since 2010, the state’s emissions have fallen more than 32% below 2005 levels, supported by investment in renewables and efficiency.^[6]

Experts warn momentum is insufficient, calling for rapid expansion of renewable energy, electrified transport, resilient infrastructure, and ecosystem restoration.^[7]

Cultural Transformations

Melbourne’s cultural identity – festivals, sporting events and outdoor life – may face disruption as heatwaves force schedule changes.^[7]

Adaptation will bring local innovation, from green roofs to resilient communities, reshaping how Melburnians gather and celebrate.^[7]

Heritage precincts at risk of flooding and bushfire will require new protective measures, blending conservation with change.^[4]

The Road to 2050

Melbourne’s fate depends on urgent action.

Some warming and sea-level rise are locked in, but severe impacts can be reduced through deeper emission cuts and bold adaptation.^[6]

Equitable transformation across energy, infrastructure and social systems will be the city’s best safeguard against climate uncertainty.^[7]

References

1. Victorian Climate Science Report: Greater Melbourne (2024)
2. Victoria’s Changing Climate (2025)
3. Victoria’s Climate Action Targets (2025)
4. Sea-level Projections for Victoria (2024)
5. Environment Victoria: Heatwaves and Climate Change (2025)
6. Victorian Government Action on Climate Change (2025)
7. Victoria Climate Projections (2024)

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Canberra 2050: A City Shaped by Climate - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key points
•	Canberra could warm by up to 1.8°C by 2050[1]
•	Five extra hot days over 35°C expected each year[2]
•	Rainfall may decline 14 per cent by mid century[3]
•	Severe fire weather days may nearly double[4]
•	ACT targets net zero emissions by 2045[5]
•	Biodiversity and water systems face critical stress[6]

Canberra is perched on the edge of immense change.

In the geometric heart of Australia’s bush capital, the slow scorch of a new climate future is already underway. ^[1]

Six of the 10 warmest years since records began in 1910 have occurred since 2013, and under existing trajectories, 2050 may look, feel and burn like nothing before. ^[1]

A Warmer, Drier Future

By 2050, Canberra’s average temperature could climb by 1.8°C above late 20th century levels if global emissions remain high. ^[1]

Even under ambitious cuts, a 1.1°C rise is likely, a swing that risks upending everyday life. ^[1]

Hot days topping 35°C will become alarmingly common, with an average increase of five each year by mid century compared to the 1990–2009 baseline. ^[2]

Bracing for those searing spikes, residents may recall the “Black Summer” bushfires of 2019–2020 and see new warnings as routine. ^[4]

Unpredictable rainfall haunts this future.

Annual rain may fall by 14 per cent under a high emissions path, the sharpest drop expected in spring, a trend placing real stress on Canberra’s famed gardens, iconic urban bushland and nearby agricultural regions. ^[3]

Even short brutal downpours and violent storms may become more frequent, carving fresh hazards for communities and infrastructure. ^[3]

Surging Heatwaves and Fire Risks

Already infamous for its crisp winters and gentle dry summers, Canberra may soon be known for its heat.

By 2050, longer and more intense heatwaves will become “the new normal", as the urban heat island effect amplifies the already rising mercury in denser city zones. ^[2]

Extreme heat does more than test comfort.

It strains hospitals, triggers spikes in heat stress and worsens chronic illness among the city's most vulnerable, including the elderly and those without reliable, cool shelter. ^[2]

It shapes culture, dictating when or if festivals, sports, and public life can take place outdoors.

Evenings, once a cool reprieve, may stay warm well past dusk, changing the way Canberrans work, rest, and gather.

Severe fire weather is also on an upward trajectory.

Where the city currently averages just 0.3 severe fire danger days a year, that number could nearly double by 2050, and more than quadruple by 2090 if emissions stay high. ^[4]

Past bushfires seared Indigenous heritage, trashed biodiversity, and cast thick smoke over Parliament House.

Canberra faces these threats more often, forced to adapt in ways large and small.

Ecological Impacts and Water Woes

Climate change in Canberra is a threat to more than comfort and the calendar.

Unpredictable rainfall and rising temperatures place immense pressure on local ecosystems.

Endangered grasslands and woodlands contract, sub alpine bogs, vital for flood control and unique to the territory, may retreat to cool margins or disappear. ^[6]

Iconic wildlife such as kangaroos and birds of prey lose habitat and food as tree canopies thin and water supplies dwindle.

Water security, long a matter of pride for this well planned city, stands at risk.

The enlarged Cotter Dam, built with climate shifts in mind, may not buffer the hotter, drier years to come. ^[6]

Unpredictable flows lead to both drought and flash flooding, while downstream cyanobacteria blooms close lakes and threaten recreation, biodiversity, and drinking water. ^[6]

Societal and Cultural Ripples

Canberra’s community resilience faces repeated testing.

Rising energy bills follow demand for air conditioning, especially for households unable to afford leafy neighbourhoods or retrofits. ^[2]

The risks fall unevenly, with the elderly, infants, renters, and people in public housing shouldering the greatest hardship during heat and fire emergencies.

In Canberra, climate is inseparable from culture.

The city’s shared love of parks, sport, and outdoor life faces new limits.

Ngunnawal custodians, who have lived with and adapted to climate swings for tens of thousands of years, encounter new forms of dispossession as fires threaten sacred sites, ceremony, and the ebb and flow of totemic species. ^[6]

Festivals may shift from spring to autumn, as organisers dodge spikes in heat and smoke, or else embrace digital and cooled indoor alternatives.

Public trust in institutions could also be tested, as demands mount for fair ways to fund adaptation and protect the vulnerable.

The Economics of Inaction

Economically, climate change sets up profound risks and opportunities.

Construction, infrastructure, hospitality and health sectors all face extra costs due to heat, fire, and insurance risk, while agriculture may shrink or change focus as rainfall declines. ^[3]

Insurance premiums and home values may be affected in fringe and bush adjacent suburbs, and transport disruptions multiply as heat buckles rails and scorches roads.

Yet the ACT’s diverse economy also fosters ventures in renewables, smart home tech, and climate resilient farming, with education and start ups poised to benefit if the right policies prevail.

The Politics of Climate Response

The ACT government has committed to net zero emissions by 2045, five years ahead of the nation’s current target, with interim goals including slashing emissions at least 65 per cent by 2030. ^[5]

All electricity used in Canberra is already sourced from renewables.

But the hard yards remain, significant emissions still flow from gas for heating, petrol fuelled cars, and aviation. ^[5]

With a near future rethink of public transport, urban design, and tree canopy required, the next 25 years will determine Canberra’s fate as a climate leader or a cautionary tale.

Residents have shown strong ambition, with surveys revealing more than 80 per cent willing to act on reducing emissions.

But success depends on sustained investment, government commitment, and a willingness to make tough choices on housing quality, active transport, and how to manage a “just transition” for those at risk of being left behind. ^[5]

Two Canberra Futures

The underlying message from those working in climate science here is unambiguous.

The difference between a world with 1.1°C warming and that with nearly 2°C is not incremental, it is transformative, separating a city that adapts and thrives from one overwhelmed by shocks and stressors.

Actions taken in the next decade, by government and citizens, will either blunt or unleash the most punishing extremes. ^[5]

Without global and local resolve, tomorrow’s Canberra may force a return indoors, or prove a model of adaptation, with cool, green refuges and a vibrant, resilient community that holds on to the best of its outdoor spirit.

References

1. NARCliM2.0 ACT Climate Change Snapshot (2024), AdaptNSW
2. ACT Government Climate Change Explained
3. ACT State of the Environment Report
4. NARCliM2.0 Bushfire Projections, AdaptNSW
5. ACT’s Climate Strategy to a Net Zero Emissions Territory
6. Australian Capital Territory State Climate Snapshots, AdaptNSW

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