Queenstown Tasmania 2050: A Mining Town Faces the Heat of Climate Change - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Queenstown projected to warm by 1.6°C to 2.9°C by 2050[1] Increased frequency and severity of heatwaves predicted[2] Fire danger season expected to lengthen and intensify[5] Winter rainfall up, summer rainfall down after 2050[6] Policies by 2025 focused on adaptation, but stronger action required[3]

Climate Change Shifting Queenstown’s Future

Queenstown, Tasmania, is bracing for a climate-altered future shaped by more extreme weather, social adaptation, and shifting economic prospects. 

Rising temperatures, intensifying heatwaves, and an evolving rainfall pattern are forecast to transform life in this rugged mining town by the middle of the century.^[1]

Scientific models indicate that Queenstown and its surrounds will experience hotter days, longer fire danger seasons, and more pronounced changes in when and how rain falls.^[2]

The local government’s climate response, shaped by recent statewide plans, is attempting to shore up resilience and reduce emissions.

However, experts warn that more dramatic action is needed to protect livelihoods and landscapes.^[3]

From economic risks to cultural shifts, the impacts of climate change will touch every aspect of Queenstown’s community.^[4]

Rising Temperatures and Heatwaves

By 2050, Queenstown is expected to be warmer by at least 1.6°C under a low-emissions scenario and up to 2.9°C if global emissions track current trends.^[1]

This warming will result in hotter summers and milder winters, with average daily minimum temperatures rising faster than daily maximums.^[1]

Heatwaves—extended periods of high temperatures—will be more frequent and last longer, raising health risks for older residents and children.^[2]

Tasmanian models suggest that days over 35°C could double in some regions, impacting outdoor work, sports, and tourism.^[2]

Shifting Rainfall Patterns

Climate forecasts for Queenstown and Tasmania’s west show total annual rainfall may not change dramatically, but its distribution will.^[1]

Winter rainfall is projected to increase significantly, while summer rainfall is set to decline after 2050.^[6]

This seasonal imbalance will challenge water resource management and could affect local agriculture and wilderness ecosystems.^[7]

Less summer rain and higher evaporation rates could exacerbate periods of drought and stress the region’s forests and rivers.^[1]

Intensifying Fire Weather

Queenstown’s fire danger season, already a concern in remote western Tasmania, is forecast to lengthen and intensify.^[5]

Spring and summer will see more days classified as “high fire danger,” driven by warmer temperatures, lower humidity, and shifting wind patterns.^[5]

This raises the likelihood of total fire bans and creates operational challenges for local emergency services.^[5]

Ecologically, bushfires pose a threat to World Heritage areas and endangered species, altering habitats and community structure.^[5]

Socially, repeated evacuations and property risk may increase community anxiety and stress.^[5]

Economic and Social Impacts

Queenstown’s economy, which is strongly linked to mining, small-scale agriculture, and eco-tourism, faces emerging strain from climate change.^[8]

Reduced summer rainfall and more frequent fires could disrupt tourism, damage infrastructure, and affect mining operations reliant on water.^[7]

Higher temperatures and changing rainfall will force local farms to adapt crops and livestock, requiring new technology and investment.^[7]

Socially, increased heatwaves and emergencies may strain local health systems, demand new community support structures, and challenge vulnerable residents.^[5]

Cultural and Ecological Change

Ecologically, Queenstown’s forests and rivers, already recovering from mining’s legacy, are vulnerable to temperature-driven stress and altered rainfall.^[1]

More frequent fires and invasions of new pests and weeds could dramatically change local flora and fauna.^[5]

Cultural heritage, including Indigenous connections to land, faces disruption as traditional practices must adapt to changing conditions.^[9]

Community events, outdoor recreation, and tourism will also need to adjust to more unpredictable and extreme weather.^[4]

2025 Policy Action vs. 2050 Needs

The Tasmanian government’s 2023–25 Climate Change Action Plan prioritises resilience, emissions reduction, research, and adaptation grants.^[3]

Measures include emissions cuts, support for clean transport, and updating regional climate models.^[10]

Yet, climate experts argue these steps must be rapidly scaled up to match the projections for Queenstown by 2050, with deep emission cuts, stronger community preparedness, infrastructure upgrades, and safeguarding natural assets becoming essential.^[11]

Without more ambitious action, projected impacts may overwhelm available resources and threaten long-term sustainability.^[3]

Conclusion: Future at a Crossroads

By 2050, climate change will reshape Queenstown’s weather, the economy, landscape, and social fabric.^[1]

The community’s ability to adapt through strengthened policies, grassroots action, and innovation will determine whether challenges become opportunities.^[4]

A focused, collective push to cut emissions and boost resilience will help Queenstown weather the coming storm.^[3]

The decisions made today set the trajectory for the next generation.^[4]
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References

1. Climate Futures for Tasmania General Climate Impacts
2. How hot will your neighbourhood be by 2050
3. Tasmania's Climate Change Action Plan 2023–25
4. Managing Tasmania's climate risks and opportunities
5. Fire danger in Tasmania: the next 100 years
6. Projected climate change impacts in Tasmania
7. Climate Change Action Plan
8. Review of climate impact change work undertaken, research gaps and opportunities in the Tasmanian context
9. Will the weather be warmer in Tasmania in 20 years?
10. Impact of climate change: Tasmanian agriculture
11. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: What does it mean for Tasmania?

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Links

• Tasmanian Climate Futures Summary – General Climate Impacts (DPAC)
• How Hot Will Your Neighbourhood Be by 2050? (Climate Council)
• Parliamentary Report – Climate Change Adaptation in Australia (APH)
• Tasmanian Climate Action Plan 2023–25 (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• Tasmanian Government Climate Risk Assessment Response (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• Projected Climate Impacts for Tasmania (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• Overview of Climate Impacts in Tasmania (Department of Natural Resources and Environment)
• Review of Climate Impact Research and Gaps in Tasmania (University of Tasmania)
• Will the Weather Be Warmer in Tasmania in 20 Years? (Curious Climate Tasmania)
• Tasmanian Climate Action Plan Overview (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – What It Means for Tasmania (Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes)
• Climate Futures for Tasmania – General Climate Impacts Full Report (UTAS)
• Queenstown Weather Forecast (Bureau of Meteorology)
• Tasmanian Climate Science Overview (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• Tasmania Fire Danger Rating (Tasmanian Fire Service)
• Tasmanian Climate Change Act Review 2024–25 (Department of State Growth)
• Scientific Study: Palaeoclimate Insights into Southern Ocean Warming (ScienceDirect)
• Break O’Day Council Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2024 (NTARC)
• Tasmanian Government Climate Change Information Portal (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• State Climate Statement – Tasmania (Climate Change in Australia)

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‘Planetary health diet’ could save 40,000 deaths a day, landmark report finds - The Guardian

The Guardian - Damian Carrington Environment editor

Diet allows modest meat consumption and would
also slash food-related climate emissions by half,
says report by 70 leading experts from 35 countries

An example of what the planetary health diet might look like in Vietnam.
Photograph: supplied

Executive Summary

The 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems presents new evidence-based insights on nutrition and human health, within safe and just planetary boundaries.  New to this Commission are updates to the planetary health diet, measurement and assessment of the impact food systems have in driving transgressions of planetary boundaries, an exploration of multi-dimensional and underlying issues of food justice, new research and extensive modelling insights, and transformative and action-based recommendations and roadmaps. The Commission lays the foundations for food systems to take a central role in the post-SDG era, presenting global, regional, local, and individual means to achieve that while creating and retaining a just social foundation, that protects human health and minimises harms to planetary health.

Adoption of a plant-rich “planetary health diet” could prevent 40,000 early deaths a day across the world, according to a landmark report.

The diet – which allows moderate meat consumption – and related measures would also slash the food-related emissions driving global heating by half by 2050. 

Today, a third of greenhouse gas emissions come from the global food system and taming the climate crisis is impossible without changing how the world eats, the researchers said.  

Food production is also the biggest cause of the destruction of wildlife and forests and the pollution of water.

The planetary health diet (PHD) sets out how the world can simultaneously improve the health of people and the planet, and provide enough food for an expected global population of 9.6 billion people by 2050.

The diet is flexible, allowing it to be adapted to local tastes, and can include some animal products or be vegetarian or vegan. 

However, all versions advise eating more vegetables, fruits, nuts, legumes and whole grains than most people in the world currently eat. In many places, today’s diets are unhealthy and unsustainable due to too much meat, milk and cheese, animal fats and sugar.

People in the US and Canada eat more than seven times the PHD’s recommended amount of red meat, while it is five times more in Europe and Latin America, and four times more in China. However, in some regions where people’s diets are heavily reliant on starchy foods, such as sub-Saharan Africa, a small increase in chicken, dairy and eggs would be beneficial to health, the report found.

Planetary health diet v current diets
Adult diets in 2020 v planetary health recommendation, daily per capita intake in grammes

Guardian graphic.
Source: The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable and just food systems.
*Other fats, oils and sugars

Severe inequalities in the food system must also be ended to achieve healthy and sustainable diets, the researchers said. The wealthiest 30% of the world’s population generates more than 70% of food-related environmental damage, it found. 

Furthermore, 2.8 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet and 1 billion are undernourished, despite enough food being produced globally. The food system is also failing the 1 billion people living with obesity, the report said.

The report recommends shifting taxes to make unhealthy food more costly and healthy food cheaper, regulating the advertising of unhealthy food and using warning labels, and the shifting of today’s massive agricultural subsidies to healthier and more sustainable foods.

The report recommends shifting taxes to make healthy food cheaper. Photograph: Wu Hao/EPA

“What we put on our plates can save millions of lives, cut billions of tonnes of emissions, halt the loss of biodiversity, and create a fairer food system,” said Prof Johan Rockström, who co-chaired the EAT-Lancet Commission that produced the report. “The evidence is undeniable: transforming food systems is not only possible, it’s essential to securing a safe, just, and sustainable future for all.”

“This is not a deprivation diet,” said Prof Walter Willett of the Harvard TH Chan school of public health, and another commission co-chair. “This is something that could be delicious, aspirational and healthy. It also allows for cultural diversity and individual preferences, providing flexibility.”

The report, published in the Lancet, was produced by 70 leading experts from 35 countries and six continents. It builds on the 2019 report that introduced the PHD, but includes new evidence of the health benefits of the diet.

“We have been able to look at this diet in relation to health outcomes such as total mortality, diabetes, respiratory diseases, heart disease, stroke, etc and we found very strong inverse relationships” said Willett. The diet was also linked to reduced cancer and neurodegenerative diseases.

Overall, the researchers estimated global adoption of the PHD could prevent 15m early deaths a year in adults. The estimate did not include the impact of the diet reducing obesity, meaning it is probably an underestimate.

The PHD recommends plant-rich, flexible diets, including:

• Fruits and vegetables – at least five portions a day
• Whole grains – three to four portions a day
• Nuts – one portion per day
• Legumes (beans, peas, lentils) – one portion per day
• Dairy – one serving of milk, yoghurt or cheese per day
• Eggs – three to four a week
• Chicken – two portions a week
• Fish – two portions a week
• Red meat – one portion a week

Dr Marco Springmann from UCL in the UK and an author of the report said the differences between the PHD and current diets vary: “What needs to be reduced differs a lot. In low income countries, it’s the starchy foods and grains, whereas in high income countries it is animal-sourced foods, sugar, saturated fats, and dairy. It’s insane how much dairy is consumed in Europe and North America.”

The data underlying the report is available online and can be used to tailor different planetary health diets for the tastes of people in specific countries and of different ages. The website also shows how much the diets reduce deaths, improve nutrition, and cut environmental impacts. 

“Hopefully this will lead to more science-based policymaking,” said Springmann.

‘What needs to be reduced differs a lot [from country to country].
In low income countries, it’s the starchy foods and grains.’
Photograph: eFesenko/Alamy xxxx

The PHD is better than current average diets for many nutrients, including fatty acids, fibre, folate, magnesium and zinc. Adequate iron and vitamin B12 could be provided by green leafy vegetables, fermented soy foods and algae, the researchers said.

Moving diets towards the PHD could be achieved by helping consumers make better everyday choices, said Prof Line Gordon, director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, for example by shifting taxes to make healthy foods cheaper, and putting warning labels on unhealthy foods. “But it is not just about getting prices lower, it’s also about bringing purchasing power up so that people can afford a healthier diet” she said.

“Our recommendations are grounded in scientific evidence and real-world experience,” Gordon said. “Changes are already under way, from school meal programmes to regenerative agriculture and food waste reduction initiatives.” England banned price promotions on unhealthy foods on Wednesday and will ban advertising such foods online.

The report estimates that food-related ill health and environmental damage costs society about $15tn a year. It said investments to transform the food system would cost $200bn to $500bn a year, but save $5tn.

Alongside a shift in diets, the report calls for other changes to the food system, including cutting the loss and waste of food, greener farming practices, and decent working conditions, as a third of food workers earn below living wages.

The launch of the PHD in 2019 led to attacks from meat industry interests. Rockström said: “The [new report] is a landmark achievement. It is a state-of-the-art scientific assessment that quantifies healthy diets for all human beings in the world and the environmental boundaries all food systems need to meet to stay safe. So we have a really rigorous foundation for our [results]. We are ready to meet that assault.”

Links

• The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems
• A global and just future for food Line Gordon: developing the future of food systems
• Fabrice DeClerck: serving sustainability for planet, plate, and people
• Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems
• EAT–Lancet Commission 2.0: securing a just transition to healthy, environmentally sustainable diets for all 
• Shakuntala Thilsted: shifting our approach to food systems

Planetary Health Check 2025: Seven of Nine Boundaries Crossed, Humanity Nears Irreversible Tipping Points - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached [1] Climate change, biodiversity, and ocean acidification at dangerous levels [2] Societal and economic risks rising sharply [3] Justice and equity highlighted in new frameworks [4] Urgent call for systemic change and policy action [5]

Earth’s Alarming Health Check

This year’s “2025 Planetary Health Check” rings the loudest alarm yet: seven out of nine planetary boundaries have been breached, with trends pointing toward further deterioration and mounting danger [1].

Produced by the Planetary Boundaries Science Lab and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the report finds Earth’s essential life-support systems—climate, oceans, biodiversity, forests, and water—are all at elevated risk, endangering human wellbeing worldwide [2].

Notably, ocean acidification joins climate change and ecosystem collapse among the breached boundaries, threatening food security, economies, and cultural traditions [3].

As the report warns, humanity's continued growth and consumption are pushing the planet closer to irreversible tipping points, with consequences for society, global stability, and justice [4].

Researchers urge urgent, systemic reform—way beyond lifestyle tweaks—calling for governments and businesses to embed planetary health into every decision [5].

What are Planetary Boundaries?

Planetary boundaries are the “safe limits” for nine key Earth processes that help keep our environment stable, resilient, and capable of supporting life [1].

They include climate change, biodiversity, land use, freshwater use, nutrient cycles, novel entities (like chemicals), atmospheric aerosols, the ozone layer, and ocean acidification [2].

Breach one, and risk to planetary and human health rises; breach several, and the possibility of abrupt, irreversible harm grows sharply [1].

The framework helps societies measure where changes must happen to restore safety and prosperity now and for future generations [5].

Earth’s Vital Signs: Key Data from 2025

The latest assessment reveals that seven boundaries have been transgressed: climate change, ecosystem integrity, land system change, freshwater use, biogeochemical cycles (nitrogen and phosphorus), introduction of novel entities (plastic, chemicals), and, for the first time, ocean acidification [1].

CO₂ in the atmosphere now stands at 423 ppm, well above the safe boundary of 350 ppm, with warming accelerating and no signs of stabilisation [2].

Global forest cover has dropped to about 59%, far below the 75% considered safe for stable climate and ecosystems [3].

Human disruptions affect over 22% of global land area’s water flow and soil moisture—double preindustrial values—threatening drinking water supplies and agriculture [2].

Ocean acidity has crossed the official safety threshold; impacts are already being felt in key coastal and polar regions, endangering marine life and millions whose livelihoods depend on it [2].

Social and Economic Impacts

Australia and countries throughout the world are witnessing clearer links between the planetary crisis and social risks: weather-related disasters are growing deadlier as destabilised systems drive more frequent heatwaves, floods, and droughts—particularly hitting vulnerable communities hardest [2].

The rise in extreme events not only harms families and communities but also disrupts economies, raising costs and threatening infrastructure [5].

The fragmentation and decline of forests, reef collapse, polluted rivers, and erratic rainfall threaten food security and rural livelihoods across Australia and Asia-Pacific neighbours [3].

Meanwhile, ocean and atmospheric instability drive global trade disruptions and food price volatility, deepening the risk of poverty and inequalities [4].

Political and Cultural Dimensions

The report highlights emerging political responses: more cities, nations, and businesses are now using planetary boundary measurements to guide policies—Amsterdam and New Zealand among early adopters [5].

The concept of “safe and just” boundaries, advanced by the Earth Commission, seeks to protect both people and ecosystems while upholding fundamental rights and equity across nations and generations [4].

Cultural impacts are profound: the loss of environments alters traditions and identities built around forests, oceans, farming, and wildlife [3].

Researchers urge governments to embed planetary health checks into national laws, planning, education, and business disclosures, reflecting a global transition to evidence-based stewardship of Earth’s resources [5].

Extreme Weather, Tipping Points, and Urgent Solutions

2024 saw the first year with global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C; heatwaves and disasters are accelerating in frequency and impact, intensified by degraded land, declining biodiversity, and freshwater instability [2].

Scientists identify looming tipping points—Amazon rainforest collapse, ocean current changes, ice sheet loss—that could set off cascades of “runaway” changes affecting billions of lives [1].

The report also introduces new tracking tools and collaborative networks designed to turn scientific findings into practical solutions—aiming for a “Planetary Mission Control Centre” to guide global recovery [2].

Urgent, systemic reforms include phasing out fossil fuels, restoring forests and wetlands, reducing chemical pollution, and establishing safe minimum standards for air and water [5].

Outlook: Restoring Planetary Stability

While scientists warn the “window” for safe recovery is closing fast, Earth’s resilience remains remarkable—even now, robust policy action and universal cooperation can return us to safety [1].

The call is clear: societies must act together to restore boundaries, implement science-based targets, and reshape economies so future generations inherit a thriving planet [5].

References

1. Planetary Health Check 2025: Executive Summary (PBScience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2025)
2. Planetary Health Check: 7 of 9 boundaries breached (Earth Commission, Sept. 2025)
3. Planetary Boundaries: Health Check 2025 – Permalogica, Sept. 2025
4. Connecting Planetary Boundaries and Planetary Health – Planetary Health Alliance, Aug. 2025
5. Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached – Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sept. 2025

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Links

• Planetary Health Check 2025 Full Report (PDF)
• Planetary Health Check 2025 Executive Summary (PDF)
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – Planetary Boundaries Science Lab
• Stockholm Resilience Centre – Planetary Boundaries Framework
• Earth Commission: Planetary Health Check – Seven of Nine Boundaries Breached
• Permalogica: Planetary Boundaries Health Check 2025 Analysis
• Planetary Health Alliance: Linking Planetary Boundaries and Planetary Health
• Stockholm Resilience Centre News – Seven of Nine Planetary Boundaries Now Breached (2025)
• ABC News Climate and Environment Live Updates (2025)
• Nature (2025): Planetary Boundaries and Earth System Stability
• Planetary Health Check – Official Site
• World Economic Forum – State of Nature and Climate 2025 Report (PDF)
• ScienceDirect: Advances in Planetary Boundary Research (2025)
• PIK Potsdam News – Seven of Nine Planetary Boundaries Now Breached
• University of Copenhagen: Rising Risks to Earth’s Life-Support Systems (2025)
• The Lancet Planetary Health: Boundary Science and Human Wellbeing (2024)
• Human Level: The State of the Planet 2025 Overview
• National Institutes of Health (PMC): Planetary Boundaries and Global Health Review
• Science Advances: Quantifying Earth System Thresholds (2025)

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The Earth Uncloaked - a catastrophe in slow motion - Julian Cribb

Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

Woodman, spare that tree! Touch not a single bough!
In youth it sheltered me, And I’ll protect it now. – GP Morris 1837

AUTHOR

Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

From one side of the globe to the other, the ring of axe, the snarl of chainsaw and the roar of flame are sounding the knell for the world’s forests, as the green Earth turns scarred, charred and desolate.

Originally, forests cloaked 57% of the land. Today their area is 31%. 420 million hectares of forest have been lost since 1990 and 10 million more are now lost each year.

Rates of deforestation are worst in Russia, Brazil, Canada, the USA and China. But the trend is not all one way: in Scandinavia, for example, the process of forest loss is being reversed with new plantings and restoration. 

Deforestation (total loss) is not the only threat: thinning for timber, inroads by farming, fragmentation by roads and towns, pest invasions, wildfires and climate change also take a heavy toll of what remains. Forest loss is a primary driver of the 6^th extinction.

Together these forces, propelled by insatiable human demands, are whitling away at the last remaining intact forests on Earth. Between 2000 and 2020, the area of intact forest fell by 1.55 million sq kms – a span the size of France, Germany and Spain combined.

Ominously, over this period, the annual rate of forest loss sped up, from an average of 7.1m ha between 2000-2013 to 9m ha from 2013-2020. The uncloaking of the Earth is closely observed by the unblinking eyes of a thousand satellites orbiting the planet.

In Brazil, the Amazon rainforest has dwindled in extent by 17%, losing over 800 million trees in the last two decades. While the plight of the Amazon is notorious, the fact that Brazil has already destroyed 85% of its huge eastern tropical rainforest, the Mata Atlantica, and fragmented the remains, is less well-known. The removal of the Brazilian forests has profound consequences for the drying of the entire South American continent, and for global climate change through the gradual destruction of the largest carbon sink on the planet.

Another vast forest, vital to the Earth’s life support system but under savage attack, is the Northern Boreal Forest, which spans Canada, the USA, Scandinavia and Russia, and is falling before a combined assault from logging, farming, mining and energy extraction, urban spread, climate change and the increased wildfires, pests and diseases which follow extensive tree felling.

Figure 1. Causes of global tree cover loss 2021-24. Source: Global Forest Watch, 2025.

Despite its green image, the wholesale destruction of the world’s forests was led by Europe. Over six thousand years, with the invention of bronze and iron axes and spread of agriculture, it gathered pace. By 1800 half of its wooded area was gone. There has been little letup in recent times, with Europe today continuing to remove trees and having next to no primary forest left.

Today, the chief villains in global deforestation are not farmers or even miners, but the giant food corporations and their agribusiness offshoots, currently shredding the world’s forests and their wildlife so as to produce more beef, soybeans, chocolate and palm oil for the unhealthy industrial diets they have marketed so successfully to urban consumers.

Corporate food is a major factor in the removal of the rainforests of Southeast Asia, which has lost half its trees since logging began. In the first two decades of the C21st, the region lost over 610,000 sq kms, an area larger than Thailand. The countries most affected are Indonesia, Malaysia and Borneo and the main cause is clearing for industrial palm oil production. The orangutan, Javan rhino, and Sumatran tiger are among the wildlife critically endangered by the destruction.

A balancing act

The world forest scene is not one of unrelieved despair, as large areas are being replanted by eager volunteers or regenerate naturally every year, offsetting some of the losses. The following table shows how the gains compared with the losses between 2000–2020. All told, 101 million hectares more were lost than gained.

Figure 2. Changing tree cover 2000-2020. Source: Global Forest Watch, 2025.

Both Russia (+37mha/yr) and Canada (+17mha/yr) successfully replanted large areas of forest during this period – but not nearly as much as they removed.

Of huge significance is the growing area of disturbed forest, which is subject to selective logging, fragmentation by roads and farms, wildfire and pests or diseases. Disturbance has been found by scientists to convert forest from a carbon absorber to a net emitter – and thus, an accelerator of climate change. It is estimated that presently less than 30% of the world’s remaining forest area is undisturbed.

Climate impact

There is now ominous evidence from round the world that the Earth’s depleted forests are becoming a major contributor to Hothouse Earth – in a vicious feedback loop that few expected.

Tropical forest loss alone releases nearly 5 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year, which is equivalent to 10% of annual human emissions. This means that tropic forests now add as much carbon to the atmosphere as all industry worldwide.

The Amazon, once one the world’s most biologically diverse ecosystems and important carbon sinks, has been found by science to emit more CO2 than it now absorbs as a result of deforestation, fragmentation, wildfires and climate change.

Between 2001 and 2024, according to Global Forest Watch, the world’s forests emitted 9.15 billion tonnes of carbon, and removed -14.4 billion tonnes a year. This represents a net sink (reduction) of -5.29 billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon a year.

If all forests located outside of agricultural and urban areas were allowed to recover globally, they would have the potential to capture 226 gigatons of carbon, says the World Economic Forum. This would mop up almost a third of humanity’s carbon emissions.

Forest conservation

Forests deliver profound benefits to humanity, including

· Much of the oxygen we breathe.

· Trapping and storing carbon, reducing global warming.

· Bringing rain and feeding the global water cycle.

· Storing fresh water.

· Protecting the soil and increasing fertility.

· Vital resources for humans, livestock and wild animals.

As a result, forest protection is being actively promoted worldwide. Here are some salient initiatives:

· Trillion Trees Campaign: aims to plant and restore one trillion trees worldwide. Afforestation initiatives accelerated in 2025 in nations including Brazil, Kenya, and India.

· UN Strategic Plan for Forests: aims by 2030 to grow the world’s forest area by 3%, or 120 million hectares, over twice the size of France.

· International Tree Foundation

· Trees for the Future

· Global Tree Initiative

· The Bonn Challenge

· Plant a Billion Trees – The Nature Conservancy.

· World agroforestry - CIFOR

· The Great Green Wall of China.

· The Great Green Wall of Africa

Almost every country in the world has a tree planting program, some of them highly successful – notably those of India, Ethiopia, Turkey and Costa Rica. But the fact remains, these efforts are still being outrun by the industrial logging giants, Russia, Brazil, Canada, the USA and China. And many countries have a bet each way by promoting tree planting to the public while quietly and deceptively encouraging their logging and land clearing sectors.

Deforestation is a global catastrophe in slow motion. Despite the good intentions of many it is still accelerating, as humans continue to gnaw, like termites, at the very foundations of the Earth’s life support system – and their own future. 

Links to further articles by Julian Cribb

• The great dying  
• Australia issues ‘terrifying’ climate warning 
• 'Died of a delusion': the fate of modern civilisation? 
• Humanity is risking catastrophe, UN warns  
• The great human brain fade... 
•  Military experts warn of climate wars 
•  Water in crisis 
•  Our steady march to disaster 
•  The Earth is under chemical attack 
•  Saving a 'livable Earth' 
• Devouring the Earth 
•  Switching off Earth's life support... 

Hobart 2050: Hotter Days, Rising Seas, and Urgent Choices - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Hobart faces up to 3°C warmer average temperatures by 2050 [1] Heatwaves and bushfire danger expected to climb sharply [2] Winter rainfall will increase, summer rainfall will decline [3] Sea level rise will threaten coastal assets and homes [4] Local climate action is progressing but falls short of 2050 needs [5] Major impacts foreseen for nature, economy, and community life [6]

Hobart is bracing for a future defined by climate uncertainty.

By 2050, experts predict the city’s average temperatures could rise by up to 3°C, driving a sharp increase in extreme heat and bushfire risks [1].

Seasonal rainfall patterns are shifting, with wetter winters and drier summers, while coastal neighbourhoods face mounting dangers from sea level rise [3] [4].

Amid these challenges, locals and government leaders are rolling out community-driven initiatives, yet scientists warn that urgent and deeper action is still needed to help Hobart thrive in the decades ahead [5].

Rising Temperatures: Hobart’s New Normal

Climate projections suggest Hobart’s average temperatures will climb between 1.6°C and 3°C by 2050, depending on future emissions [1].

This warming will mean longer and more intense heatwaves, with the number of days above 35°C potentially doubling in some years [2].

Cool nights and frost-risk days will become increasingly rare, changing local conditions for people, farming, and native plants.

Experts say summer days over 25°C may rise from around 5 per year to more than 12, altering seasonal routines [1].

Heatwaves, Fire Weather and Health Risks

Fire danger in Hobart and the surrounding bushland is expected to rise sharply because of hotter, drier weather and longer fire seasons [2].

By 2050, Tasmanian bushfire danger days may increase by at least 10% per decade, with periods of “very high fire danger” becoming 120% more common than today [2].

This means steeper risks for property owners on the city fringe and greater threats to local biodiversity and farmland.

Health experts warn that heatwaves and fire smoke can cause spikes in asthma and cardiovascular disease, impacting community well-being [2].

Shifting Rainfall and Water Security

Climate scientists forecast more rainfall during Hobart’s winters but declining rain in summer, which creates new water management challenges [3].

Heavier winter storms may mean increased flooding in low-lying areas, while reduced summer rainfall adds stress to water supplies and agriculture [3].

Higher evaporation rates from warmer temperatures could further strain water systems, affecting everything from backyard gardens to hydroelectric generation.

Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more frequent, which can damage roads, infrastructure, and homes.

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Vulnerability

Tasmanian officials project sea levels around Hobart will rise by about 23 centimetres by 2050, increasing threats from storm surges and coastal flooding [4].

Some of the city’s most treasured waterfront spaces, including Salamanca and the River Derwent shoreline, could frequently be underwater during extreme events.

Local councils are reviewing regulations for new coastal developments, but thousands of homes and businesses remain exposed.

Marine heatwaves in nearby waters will also disrupt kelp forests and local fisheries, reshaping Tasmania’s iconic coastline [6].

Impacts on Nature and Local Economy

Climate shifts will disrupt native ecosystems, threatening Tasmanian devils, wedge-tailed eagles and other unique wildlife.

Forest and alpine habitats around Hobart may shrink or change as summers become drier and warmer [6].

Tourism operators face narrower “peak season” windows due to changing weather, while agriculture productivity could suffer from water stress and heat extremes [6].

Meanwhile, aquaculture and lobster fisheries may encounter new risks from warming seas and more frequent marine heatwaves.

Social and Cultural Impacts

Shifting weather will alter Tasmanian traditions from weekend camping to annual food and arts festivals.

Artists and community groups increasingly highlight environmental themes, while councils update emergency plans for vulnerable residents.

Growth in climate migration—people moving to or from Hobart for safety or opportunity—could reshape the city’s demographic makeup.

Local camaraderie becomes vital during recovery from storms, fires and heatwaves, reinforcing Tasmania’s community spirit.

Current Action Versus Future Needs

Tasmania’s government set ambitious goals for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and created a Climate Change Action Plan with $10 million committed to local programs [5].

Recent community grants empower neighbourhoods to launch energy efficiency projects and raise awareness about climate resilience [5].

Environmental groups praise these steps but warn they are just a start: deeper emissions cuts and stronger urban planning are crucial to avoid the gravest risks by mid-century.

Adapting homes, updating coastal defences, enhancing early-warning systems, and fostering community connections are top priorities for the years ahead.

Political Outlook and the Road to 2050

While all sides agree climate challenges loom, debate continues about how fast Tasmania can build resilience and cut emissions.

Reviews of the state’s Climate Change Act are under way to strengthen future policies, but experts urge action must match the scale of the risks faced [5].

With climate effects already evident in bushfires, storm damage and rising insurance costs, Hobart’s future depends on bold leadership and community resolve.

The choices made today will shape the city’s safety, prosperity and natural beauty for generations.

References

1. Climate Futures for Tasmania: General Climate Impacts
2. Climate Futures for Tasmania: Future Fire Technical Report
3. Projected Climate Change Impacts: RecFIT Tasmania
4. Macquarie Point Heat Risk and Climate Change Assessment
5. Tasmania’s Climate Change Action Plan 2023–25
6. IPCC Sixth Assessment: What it Means for Tasmania

Links

• Climate Futures for Tasmania - Overview
• Climate Futures Tasmania: Technical Reports
• Climate Futures for Tasmania: Report (NCCARF)
• Tasmania - Changing Climate (Climate Change in Australia)
• Climate Futures Tasmania: Publications and Research Reports
• Climate Change in Southern Tasmania – STCA

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Why Fascists Reject Climate Science - Gregory Andrews

Lyrebird Dreaming - Gregory Andrews

Author Gregory Andrews is: Founder and Managing Director of Lyrebird Dreaming A former Australian Ambassador and High Commissioner in West Africa Australia’s first Threatened Species Commissioner A leader in Indigenous policy

At the United Nations last month, Donald Trump stood before global leaders and the world and declared again that climate change is a hoax. 

He did this while floods and fires are ravaging communities, while coral reefs bleach before our eyes, and while scientists deliver ever more urgent warnings about the future of our kids and the entire planet.

It would be easy to dismiss Trump’s words as the rantings of one man, or the corruption of one political system. But his rhetoric fits a larger pattern. 

Around the world, far-right leaders and authoritarian movements so often cling to climate denial. 

And the question is: why? Why are the far right and fascists so often climate change denialists?

The alliance of power and denial

Part of the answer is simple. 

Fossil fuels mean power. They mean wealth, jobs, influence, and campaign donations. They underpin whole economies. 

Authoritarian leaders thrive on protecting those vested interests, whether in coal, oil, or gas. 

If they are to admit climate change is real, they must admit those empires are killing us. 

So instead, they call the science a conspiracy and double down on extraction.

Science is the enemy of authoritarianism

Another reason lies deeper. Fascism thrives on controlling the story - defining reality from the top down.

Independent science undermines that control. 

Evidence, facts, and peer review don’t bend to the will of the “strongman.” 

So authoritarian leaders attack science itself. 

They call it fake, elitist, corrupt. 

And climate science, which demands urgent collective action, is an easy target. (And the same goes for health science. Just look at Trump’s anti-vaccination actions!)

Nationalism against global cooperation

Climate change doesn’t respect borders. 

It demands international treaties, collective commitments, and global solidarity. 

But fascism clings to nationalism, sovereignty, and suspicion of “outsiders.” 

To admit the scale of climate change is to admit no nation can solve it alone - and that truth cuts against the authoritarian instinct to build walls, close borders, and hoard resources.

From denial to weaponisation

It’s also important to see how the far right is shifting. 

Some fascists still cry “hoax.” 

Others have moved to a new strategy: accept that climate change is real, but twist it into justification for exclusion and control. 

They talk of climate refugees and renewable energy threats. 

They imagine militarised borders and “pure” homelands. 

This is eco-fascism - not denial, but weaponisation of the crisis.

More than science, it’s about democracy

The real lesson is this: climate denial isn’t just bad science or policy. 

It’s overt political strategy. It shields fossil fuel elites. 

It undermines trust in experts. 

It blocks global cooperation. 

And it nurtures authoritarian power.

So here’s the thing. 

Resisting climate denial must be much more than just defending the science. 

It has to be about defending democracy itself. 

When Trump, Barnaby Joyce, or Andrew Hastie label climate change a hoax, they’re not only denying the atmosphere. 

They’re trying to deny us the future we deserve - one built on truth, solidarity, and justice.

Closing thought

Fascists deny climate change because they cannot control it. 

They can’t bend the laws of physics to their ideology. 

And so they pretend it isn’t real. 

Our task - as citizens, as voters, as people of conscience - is to prove them wrong, by choosing facts over lies, action over delay, and democracy over authoritarianism.

Links

• The Guardian – Why right-wing populists are obsessed with climate change denial
•  Nature – How political ideology shapes climate change belief and action 
•  Brookings Institution – How far-right parties exploit climate politics 
•  Scientific American – The real reasons why conservatives deny climate science  
• IPCC – Sixth Assessment Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023  
• Carbon Brief – Why people deny climate change and what to do about it

Climate Change Australia 2025 Update: Uncovering New Risks and Imperatives - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Australia's temperature has risen by 1.5°C since 1910 1 Extreme events: fire, heatwaves, floods, cyclones increasing 2 Mt Isa faces harsher heat, fire risk, and water stress 3 Current climate actions fall short of 2050 needs 4 Up to 750,000 Australian properties uninsurable by 2050 5 Cultural, ecological and economic impacts intensify rapidly with warming 6 Calls for urgent national adaptation and mitigation plans 7

Australians are experiencing a new era of climate extremes as rising temperatures reshape communities, health, and livelihoods across the continent ¹.

Unprecedented disasters from cyclones to firestorms have struck regions rarely considered vulnerable, pushing emergency systems and local economies to breaking point ².

New research and national risk assessments show that climate change is accelerating in unpredictable ways, with harsh impacts already observed in areas like Mt Isa ³.

The stakes for Australia’s future are stark: current action trails far behind what's required by 2050, while vulnerable populations, industries, and iconic natural assets confront mounting threats ⁴.

Australia’s Changing Climate

Scientific observations confirm that Australia's land and ocean temperatures have risen by 1.5°C since 1910, with extreme warming concentrated over recent decades ¹.

Heatwaves once rare now arrive more often and linger, while record-breaking fires, floods, and cyclones stress the country’s environment and infrastructure ².

Current rainfall patterns are shifting, with some areas experiencing intense downpours and others facing enduring drought ¹.

Marine zones have warmed sharply, leading to coral bleaching and the collapse of local fisheries ².

Major reports highlight this as an existential challenge, with even small temperature increases triggering outsized changes ⁴.

Obscure Yet Critical Impacts

Australia’s renowned bush ecosystems are changing at genetic and functional levels, affecting their ability to survive recurring fires and heat ².

The ferocious “Black Summer” of 2019–2020 and subsequent marine heatwaves have surprised scientists by deepening soil degradation and accelerating tree mortality in remote regions ⁶.

Recent thunderstorm asthma outbreaks—once considered rare—have been triggered by extreme temperature variations and pollen surges ⁶.

Some fast-growing drought-resistant plant species are replacing traditional Australian flora, threatening long-term ecological balances ².

Water-borne diseases and mosquito populations are expanding to new areas as rainfall and humidity patterns shift ⁶.

Case Study: Mt Isa and Surrounds

Mt Isa, a mining town in north-west Queensland, typifies the frontlines of climate change in Australia ³.

This region now records longer heatwaves: up from a few days per year to weeks at a time, with temperatures frequently exceeding 40°C ³.

Local bushfire risk has more than doubled, exacerbated by dry lightning storms and persistent drought ³.

Miners face hazardous exposure and cooling costs are rising for homes and businesses ³.

Water scarcity now threatens the viability of agriculture, mining, and urban water supplies in the wider Mount Isa region ³.

Efforts to manage risk—including heat refuge centres, new firefighting techniques, and water recycling—are proving essential, yet are challenged by budget and resource limits ³.

Some remote Indigenous communities have begun implementing traditional land management practices alongside modern fire prevention systems to reduce exposure ³.

Temperature, Rainfall, and Fire Weather

Extreme fire weather days have doubled since the 1980s, especially in inland and northern Australia ².

Annual average temperature is rising fastest in regional centres like Mt Isa and Alice Springs, expected to approach dangerous thresholds by 2040 if emissions continue unchecked ⁴.

Increased evaporation from higher heat intensifies drought conditions, damaging crop yields and natural habitats ².

Flash flooding events recur more often in cyclone-prone areas, disrupting business and threatening public safety ².

Fire risk extends deeper into spring and autumn, reducing seasons where fire crews can recover and prepare ².

Social, Cultural and Economic Ripple Effects

A national risk assessment released in September underscores the threat to food security, housing, and health as weather events escalate ⁴.

Insurers warn that up to 750,000 properties may become uninsurable by 2050 due to flooding, fire, and cyclone risk ⁵.

Mt Isa’s mining and agricultural sectors are particularly exposed, with crop yield reductions and increased worker health risks looming large ³.

Some rural hospitals and health clinics now report more cases of heat stress, respiratory illnesses, and mental health issues ⁶.

A growing body of research links climate stress to higher rates of displacement, especially in vulnerable rural and Indigenous populations ⁶.

Culturally significant ecosystems—such as the Channel Country and nearby lakes—are under threat of permanent alteration or loss ⁶.

Efforts to conserve cultural stories and land connections have intensified, but adaptation remains uneven and under-resourced ⁶.

Ecological Transformations Unfolding

By the end of the century, researchers project that most coral reefs in Australia will be gone and key fisheries will collapse if carbon emissions are not curbed rapidly ².

Extinction rates for plants and vertebrates continue to climb, as habitats shrink and species are pushed beyond their survival limits ².

Mt Isa and the broader western outback may lose up to a third of their biodiversity by mid-century without adaptation efforts ³.

Land clearing and environmental stress are accelerating soil erosion and salinity issues, creating further hurdles for agriculture and native vegetation ².

What Australia Is Doing—And What Must Change

Current policies, including investment in renewables and carbon targets under review for 2035, have only partially slowed greenhouse gas growth ⁴.

Expert panels and scientists now urge a minimum 75–85% cut in national emissions by 2035 to avoid catastrophic warming ⁷.

Local governments and businesses have begun rolling out adaptation measures, from heat-resistant infrastructure to new drought management plans ³.

Australia’s national adaptation plan, released this year, aims to boost climate knowledge, response coordination, and critical infrastructure investment ⁷.

Nonetheless, major barriers persist, including election-cycle uncertainties, fossil fuel dependency, and sluggish legislative progress ⁴.

Big questions remain about political will, collective action, and how to protect vulnerable communities through the economic transition ahead ⁷.

The international community has also put Australia under greater scrutiny, raising pressure to meet Paris Agreement targets and demonstrate climate leadership in the Indo-Pacific ².

Ultimately, experts agree: rapid, wide-reaching action before 2030 is essential if Australia is to avoid existential losses and seize any remaining opportunities for a safe, resilient future ⁴.

References

1. Australia's changing climate. CSIRO
2. The climate change scenario that could leave Australia unrecognisable. SBS News
3. WHY AUSTRALIA'S 2035 CLIMATE TARGET MATTERS. Climate Council
4. Is this Australia's climate wake-up call? Official report reveals hotter, harder future if we don't act now. The Conversation
5. WHY AUSTRALIA'S 2035 CLIMATE TARGET MATTERS. Climate Council
6. Climate change, environmental extremes, and human health in Australia. PMC
7. Is this Australia's climate wake-up call? Official report reveals hotter, harder future if we don't act now. The Conversation

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