Making polluters pay could fix Australia’s climate problem – and its budget: Michael Keating

 Pearls and Irritations - Michael Keating

A new report shows how making polluters pay will not only diminish the threat from climate change, but it can also help restore the budget and the economy.

Author Michael Keating Michael Keating is a former Secretary of the Departments of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Finance and Employment, and Industrial Relations.  He is presently a visiting fellow at the Australian National University.

The key domestic policy challenges facing Australia’s national government right now are climate change, restoring Australia’s fiscal capacity, and lifting Australia’s stagnant economic growth rate.

The best way forward in responding to these challenges are the tax changes proposed by the Superpower Institute in a very important report released on 29 January. 

Unfortunately, this report has been received very little attention by the mainstream media, and hence this summary that follows.

Climate change

As the Superpower Report demonstrates we are not on track to meet our climate targets.

“Sectors representing nearly 40 per cent of Australia’s emissions in 2005 have not begun to reduce. Transport emissions have risen by more than 20 per cent, industry by about seven per cent and stationary energy by more than 20 per cent. Almost all progress has come from land-use change”.

As the report says, “Australia’s current emissions-reduction policies are inefficient because they are narrow and fragmented, with large gaps in coverage… The current policy mix is also expensive to the Budget”, and none of the present policies raise the revenue required to support households and businesses in making the transition to net zero.

More than 50 years ago, the member countries of the OECD, including Australia, agreed that the polluter must pay.

Allowing free pollution is of course economically inefficient, as economic efficiency depends upon the people who destroy productive capacity and well-being being responsible for paying the costs of remediation. Otherwise, they have no incentive to stop polluting.

But making the polluter pay is not what we are presently doing in Australia, and most polluters incur no cost. The present Safeguard Mechanism is capturing only 30 per cent of Australia’s emissions. While the other main instrument for reducing carbon emissions – the Capacity Investment Scheme – has only commenced construction or commissioned less than 3GW of capacity compared to a target of 40GW of new renewable energy capacity and storage.

In addition, gas companies in Australia do not pay an adequate return for being allowed to extract the gas resources that really belong to all Australians. As the report finds, “Currently Australian state and federal governments take approximately 30 per cent of fossil fuel companies’ profits, through a combination of the corporate tax, royalties, and the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax”. This compares with the between 75 and 90 per cent that other major fossil fuel exporting countries typically take, without damage to their trade.

In particular, when fossil fuel prices rise to generate super profits, unlike in other countries, these additional profits in Australia do not translate into additional government revenue.

The Superpower Institute report has proposed two major new taxes to limit carbon emissions and secure a fairer return from our gas supplies: a Polluter Pays Levy (PPL), and a Fair Share Levy (FSL).

The PPL is a tax on the carbon embedded in fossil fuels extracted or imported for use in Australia. If applied to around 140 extraction sites operated by fewer than 60 companies, the Superpower Institute estimates that will cover more than 80 per cent of Australia’s emissions – well above the 30 per cent currently covered by the Safeguard Mechanism and the 34 per cent covered by policies for the electricity sector.

The PPL would begin in 2026 at $17 per tonne of CO2 equivalent and rise until it meets the EU carbon price in 2034, after which it would follow the EU price. In addition, the PPL should be accompanied by a European-style Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM, applied to energy-intensive imports so that domestic producers are not disadvantaged.

Modelling in the report shows that PPL would accelerate the reduction in emissions, delivering about 100 million tonnes of additional abatement after ten years, and more than double the total reductions expected under current policies.

The FSL is a tax on economic rents modelled on Norway’s Special Tax on Petroleum Income. Because rent taxes leave normal returns untouched, they do not affect future incentives to invest or trade, or Australia’s international competitiveness, and do not increase prices. In addition, because most of the profits from Australia’s oil and gas industry accrue to foreigners, a substantial share of this additional tax burden is borne offshore, while Australians are better off.

The proposed FSL of 40 per cent would lift Australia’s effective tax on fossil fuel profits to around 58 per cent, still at the lower end of global norms.

Restoring Australia’s fiscal capacity

The official forecasts show ongoing structural budget deficits forever of around two per cent of GDP. This represents a real danger to economic management, but it will not be fixed unless the government raises additional revenue or cuts government expenditures.

Of course, no-one wants to pay more tax, but the fact is that many government programs have been chronically under-funded for a decade or more. For example, the punitive university fee regime imposed by Morrison continues to distort tertiary education, equitable school funding under Gonski will not be fully realised until 2034, and public investment in universities, the CSIRO and R&D is lower in real terms than it was a decade ago. 

Hospital waiting lists remain too long, in part because aged care is still inadequate, with home care packages delayed for more than a year. Income support for unemployed people is widely regarded as insufficient, rent assistance remains too low, and public housing funding is well short of historic norms. In addition, it is generally agreed that we will need to spend a lot more on defence in future.

So clearly we need to raise more revenue, and the two taxes proposed in this report, represent by far the easiest way to make a substantial start.

It is estimated that together the two levies would raise on average $35.6 billion a year in additional revenue over the next 25 years.

However, the report recognises that many small businesses and households have limited opportunities to avoid the additional energy costs. The first call on this additional revenue must therefore be compensation payments to small businesses and households.

To insulate small businesses, the report proposes a Small Business Energy Compensation Payment of $325 per year, similar to the support provided by the former Energy Bill Relief Fund (EBRF) from 2023 to the end of 2025. It is estimated that this relief would require around $325 million per year of PPL revenue and would support around one million eligible small businesses.

The report proposes two payments to households to help insulate them from rising energy costs. However, as households electrify their homes these costs will fall.

First, a Household Compensation Payment will cover conservative estimates of the increases in energy bills before they are able to electrify their homes. The report estimates that this payment will cost an average of $4.1 billion each year, between 2026 and 2050, and it will be worth an average of $330 per household between 2026 and 2050, peaking at about $500 per household in 2033.

The second payment would be to those households, such as renters, those living in apartments and any others who face barriers to electrifying their homes. For the first decade of the PSL the report recommends committing $4 billion per year to supporting these people.

After these compensation payments are netted out, the report estimates that the PPL will deliver an average of $18.5 billion in net annual revenue through to 2050. In addition, it is estimated that the FSL will raise an average of around $13 billion a year.  So together these two taxes will make a very significant contribution to fixing our budget problems, as well as accelerating the desired reduction in carbon emissions.

Lifting Australia’s stagnant economic growth rate

Australia’s economic stagnation over the last 15 years or so largely reflects low investment as manufacturing investment has been wound back and we have switched to service industries. In addition, Treasury modelling released last September predicts that the annual value of fossil fuel exports will fall by more than $60 billion by 2030 as countries decarbonise their economies.

However, as the report says, Australia has a remarkable opportunity to accelerate its economic growth and maintain its exports in a decarbonising world. Australia’s renewable energy, mineral, and other natural resources give it a comparative advantage in producing and exporting zero-carbon, energy intensive goods such as green iron, aluminium, silicon, ammonia and fuels.

By embracing taxes on carbon pollution Australia will create the necessary incentives to promote the development of these new green industries and lift overall economic prosperity.

This report has provided a pathway for the Albanese Government to provide the leadership we expect from government and make a real difference to both the environment and the economy. Action along these lines will not cost the government electorally and it could well help isolate the Opposition.

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Lethal Heat, Soft Targets: Is the ACT’s New Climate Framework Enough for a Burning Canberra? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

New ACT climate paper shifts from fixed targets to a flexible framework backed by rolling action plans.1 Strategy groups act under eight themes, keeping a 2045 net zero goal but soft‑pedalling 2035 milestones.2 Government concedes it is unlikely to fully meet its 2025 emissions target, exposing a credibility gap.3 Community and environment groups have branded the discussion paper a vague “placeholder”.4 The ACT’s claim to climate leadership is under pressure amid weak national progress and ongoing fossil fuel approvals.5 Public consultation runs to 18 March 2026, framed by advocates as a last chance to demand a plan with teeth.6

On a not‑too‑distant summer afternoon in 2035, the bitumen in a quiet Gungahlin cul‑de‑sac is soft enough to take a footprint, the air still and 40‑plus degrees even after 6pm, and the only movement is the shimmer above the roofs of tightly packed townhouses.⁷

Inside, an evaporative cooler labours uselessly in air that is both scorching and dry, while a young family huddles in the only semi‑bearable room, scrolling their phones to find the nearest public “heat refuge” promised in the ACT’s new climate strategy.⁷

Outside, the patchy street trees offer almost no shade, and the concrete paths radiate stored heat accumulated over days of a heatwave that climate models say will become far more frequent in Canberra by mid‑century.⁷

Against this backdrop of lethal heating, the ACT Climate Change Strategy 2026–35 arrives wrapped in the cool language of “overarching frameworks”, “thematic pillars” and “sequenced action plans”.¹

It promises a fair and inclusive shift to a net‑zero, climate‑resilient city by 2045, but leaves key decisions about how steeply emissions must fall in the 2030s to future documents and future ministers.¹

Community groups and climate advocates say that gap between embodied heat in suburbs like Gungahlin and the paper’s abstract language could be measured in extra ambulance call‑outs, higher power bills, and lives lost in poorly insulated rentals.⁴

Now, with consultation open until 18 March 2026, Canberrans are being asked whether a framework without firm 2035 targets is enough as the climate crisis accelerates around them.⁶

The promise of a new framework

The ACT Climate Change Strategy 2026–35 is pitched as an evolution rather than a rewrite, shifting from a single, detailed plan to an overarching framework supported by a series of shorter‑term action plans that can be updated as technology, economics and federal policy change.¹

The government argues this model will allow it to respond more nimbly to new risks and opportunities, rather than locking in a fixed list of measures in 2026 that may be out of date by the early 2030s.¹

In practice, that means the strategy sets the direction and principles, while detailed commitments – from building standards to public transport timetables and retrofit programs – are pushed into rolling action plans with shorter time horizons.¹

Officials frame this as a way to avoid the “set and forget” problem that plagued some earlier climate documents, in which ambitious targets were not always matched by delivery mechanisms or regular public reporting.¹⁰

But critics warn that flexibility cuts both ways: a framework can be a vehicle for rapid escalation, or a convenient shell into which future governments pour watered‑down commitments if political winds change.⁴

Eight themes, one net‑zero horizon

The discussion paper organises the next decade of climate action into eight themes that run from energy and transport through to resilience, housing, nature and the economy, each intended to knit mitigation and adaptation together.¹

The themes include energy, transport, buildings and urban form, the natural environment, waste and the circular economy, industry and innovation, community resilience and wellbeing, and government leadership.¹

Across these pillars the strategy reaffirms the territory’s long‑standing goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2045, building on interim targets of a 50–60% cut by 2025, 65–75% by 2030 and 90–95% by 2040 against 1990 levels.⁸

Having already shifted its electricity supply to 100% renewable contracts, the ACT locates the bulk of remaining emissions cuts in phasing out fossil gas, electrifying transport, improving building performance and reshaping urban development to reduce car dependence.¹⁰

Electrification is the dominant through‑line: the paper foreshadows a gas‑free future for new suburbs, continued expansion of zero‑emissions public transport, and support for households to replace gas appliances and petrol cars with electric alternatives powered by renewables.¹⁰

On the adaptation side, the themes bundle commitments around resilient infrastructure, urban cooling, emergency management and nature‑based solutions such as urban forests and restored waterways that can blunt the worst impacts of extreme heat and storms.¹

Electrification and resilient infrastructure

The strategy doubles down on the ACT’s reputation as an early mover on electrification, with a clear signal that gas has no long‑term future in the territory’s homes, businesses or public assets.¹⁰

Earlier commitments – including phasing out gas by 2045, delivering all new government buildings and public schools as all‑electric, and transitioning the government’s passenger fleet and bus network to zero emissions – are presented as foundations for the next phase rather than completed work.¹⁰

Electrification is framed not just as a climate measure but as a cost‑of‑living and health intervention, with more efficient homes, cleaner air and reduced exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices cited as co‑benefits.¹

Resilient infrastructure emerges as the other major pillar, with the paper canvassing upgrades to energy and transport networks, drainage systems and public assets so they can withstand longer heatwaves, more intense storms and increased bushfire risk.¹

This includes proposals for more shaded streets, climate‑ready schools and community facilities that can double as refuges during extreme heat and smoke events, acknowledging that even rapid emissions cuts will not prevent dangerous warming already locked in by past pollution.⁹

The target the ACT is likely to miss

Beneath the aspirational language, the paper contains a blunt admission: the ACT is unlikely to fully achieve its 2025 emissions reduction target of 50–60% below 1990 levels, despite its vaunted status as “the nation’s climate action capital”.⁸

The government points to population growth, slower‑than‑expected shifts in transport and building emissions, and national policy constraints as reasons the territory is struggling to bend the curve fast enough in the early 2020s.¹

That frankness is unusual in Australian climate politics, where missed milestones are more often buried than acknowledged, but it also raises uncomfortable questions about whether the ACT can credibly promise steeper cuts again in the 2030s.¹¹

Under the existing trajectory, the ACT must not only regain lost ground from the 2025 shortfall but accelerate towards its 2030 and 2040 goals, cutting deeply into transport and building emissions that tend to be slow and capital‑intensive to shift.⁸

Critics say this is precisely why the new strategy should contain binding, sector‑specific targets for 2035 and beyond, rather than leaving the steepness of the emissions descent curve to future action plans and future parliaments.⁴

Frameworks, hard numbers and the 2035 gap

The timing of the ACT strategy coincides with the federal government adopting a national 2035 target of cutting emissions 62–70% below 2005 levels, a benchmark that highlights how much of Australia’s decarbonisation effort is now expected in the decade after 2030.¹²

National projections released late last year suggested Australia was on track for only about a 48% cut by 2035 on current settings, well short of that goal, underscoring how quickly policies will need to tighten if the country is to stay inside a 1.5C‑consistent carbon budget.¹²

Against that backdrop, the ACT’s decision to stop short of spelling out explicit 2035 targets in its core strategy looks to some like a retreat from the transparent, time‑bound goals that once set the territory apart from larger jurisdictions.⁸

Climate advocates argue that a framework without clear waypoints risks allowing incrementalism to creep back in, especially as the “easy wins” of renewable electricity have already been banked and the remaining cuts require reshaping transport, housing and land‑use patterns.¹¹

Others, including some policy experts, say a framework could still drive deep cuts if it is paired with legally binding carbon budgets, transparent sectoral plans and independent monitoring that forces future governments to explain any backsliding in public.¹⁰

For now, the draft paper leans more on the language of “pathways” and “options” than on the hard numbers and enforcement mechanisms that would give those pathways real teeth.¹

Voices from the ground

Outside the bureaucracy, patience is wearing thin among parts of Canberra’s climate movement, which has long celebrated the ACT’s leadership but now fears the territory is coasting on past achievements just as the crisis intensifies.⁴

The Conservation Council ACT Region has described the 2026–35 discussion paper as a “vague”, “hastily put‑together placeholder” that sketches broad principles but ducks crucial decisions about timelines and accountability for cutting emissions this decade and next.⁴

Housing advocates, renters’ groups and health organisations are also pressing for much stronger commitments on minimum energy performance standards, mandatory upgrades for the worst‑performing rentals and more ambitious urban greening to cut lethal heat in low‑income suburbs.⁹

They argue that without concrete timelines and funding for measures like deep retrofits, street trees and accessible cooling refuges, the burden of rising temperatures will continue to fall hardest on people in older homes, social housing and outer‑suburban estates with little shade.⁹

For these groups, the debate is less about the elegance of the framework and more about whether their members will be safer, healthier and less exposed by the time the next mega‑heatwave or smoke‑choked summer rolls through the capital.⁷

The government’s collective action case

The ACT government, for its part, insists the strategy is grounded in collective action and wellbeing, highlighting co‑benefits such as lower bills, cleaner air, active transport, improved biodiversity and more liveable neighbourhoods as central to the plan.¹

Ministers argue that framing climate policy through health, equity and quality of life – rather than only tonnes of carbon – will make it easier to build durable public support for the disruptive changes required in housing, transport and energy systems.¹

The paper talks about partnering with communities, businesses and First Nations organisations to co‑design local solutions, from neighbourhood‑scale energy projects to nature‑based adaptation and culturally appropriate emergency responses.¹

Yet in the absence of binding interim targets or guaranteed minimum investment levels, those aspirations risk reading as hopeful rather than assured, leaving community groups to fight the same battles budget by budget and project by project.⁴

The tension between the government’s emphasis on shared wellbeing and advocates’ demand for harder edges – targets, timelines, enforcement and funding – runs through almost every section of the draft strategy.⁴

Climate leadership at a crossroads

For more than a decade, the ACT has revelled in its image as Australia’s climate pioneer, from legislating ambitious targets to contracting 100% renewable electricity and pledging to phase out gas without buying offsets to meet its goals.¹⁰

That leadership has often stood in stark contrast to national policy, where the Safeguard Mechanism, heavy reliance on offsets and a slow‑moving coal and gas sector have left Australia off‑track for both its 2030 and 2035 targets.¹²

At the same time, the federal government has promoted “Nature Positive” laws and global biodiversity summits while continuing to approve new fossil fuel projects and maintain a pipeline of coal and gas developments that independent analysts say would blow the global 1.5C budget.¹³

Reports released in the wake of recent disasters such as Cyclone Alfred have described Australia as a “fossil fuel behemoth”, noting that its coal, oil and gas exports are on track to cause several times more climate damage than its domestic emissions.¹³

In that context, the ACT’s new strategy will be read not just as a local policy document but as a test of whether a self‑declared climate leader can maintain its edge with frameworks and principles rather than firm timelines and enforceable carbon budgets.⁸

If the territory loosens its grip on clear targets while the rest of the country continues to expand fossil fuel production under a Nature Positive banner, the gap between climate rhetoric and lived reality in suburbs like Gungahlin will only widen.¹²

Adaptation, accountability and a deadline

Beyond emissions accounting, the 2026–35 strategy will shape how Canberra adapts to a climate already changing faster than many models anticipated, with hotter summers, shifting rainfall and compounding risks from fire, heat and smoke.⁹

That makes decisions about building standards, rental protections, insurance, planning codes, urban forests and public infrastructure as consequential for residents’ day‑to‑day safety as decisions about the territory’s next megawatt of renewable generation.⁹

Advocates warn that if the strategy does not lock in stronger adaptation measures by the mid‑2030s – from mandatory cool roofs and higher energy performance to expanded green space in heat‑vulnerable suburbs – the costs will show up in health statistics, lost productivity and widening inequality.⁹

They argue that a credible plan for the next decade must combine clear emissions trajectories with legally backed adaptation benchmarks, transparent reporting and independent oversight, so that no government can quietly let the framework drift while temperatures climb.¹¹

For now, though, the most tangible line in the sand is not a 2035 carbon budget but a consultation deadline: public submissions on the ACT Climate Change Strategy 2026–35 close on 18 March 2026, a date community groups describe as a final chance for Canberrans to demand a plan with teeth before the shape of the next climate decade is effectively locked in.⁶

References

1. ACT Government – Developing the next ACT Climate Change Strategy 2026–35 discussion paper
2. ACT Climate Change Strategy targets and net zero by 2045 commitment
3. ACT Climate Change Strategy 2019–25 – 2025 emissions reduction target (50–60% below 1990)
4. Conservation Council ACT Region – commentary on 2026–35 climate strategy as “vague placeholder”⁴
5. Fossil Fuel Non‑Proliferation Treaty Initiative – Exporting Harm: Australia’s fossil fuel expansion and climate hypocrisy
6. ACT Government – Climate Change Strategy consultation dates (29 January–18 March 2026)
7. AdaptNSW – Projected climate change impacts and heatwaves in the ACT region
8. ASBEC – Overview of ACT Climate Change Strategy 2019–2025 and interim targets
9. AdaptNSW – Climate risks, health and adaptation needs in the ACT
10. ACT Greens – Commitments on electrification, gas phase‑out and zero‑emissions fleets
11. Climate Action Tracker – Australia’s policies, offsets reliance and decarbonisation pathways
12. ABC News – Australia projected to badly miss 2035 climate target of 62–70% cuts
13. The Australia Institute – Nature Positive rhetoric and fossil fuel approvals critique

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Australia’s Climate Blind Spot: Why Schools Still Fail to Teach the Defining Crisis of This Century - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Climate change appears in the Australian Curriculum but is unevenly taught across year levels. [1] Primary school students are not guaranteed structured climate change education. [1] Secondary climate education is stronger but varies by subject and teacher confidence. [2] Climate literacy is increasingly recognised as essential for economic, civic and social resilience. [3] A coherent national approach could better prepare students for a climate-shaped future. [4]

Australia’s education system is quietly failing to equip young people with the climate knowledge they will need to survive and govern a warming world.

Whether climate change is taught in Australia’s primary and secondary schools is no longer academic. 

Climate change is already reshaping Australia’s economy, ecosystems, infrastructure and public health. 

The children currently sitting in classrooms will spend their adult lives navigating escalating heat, extreme weather, ecological disruption and energy transition. 

Whether they understand these forces will influence how well Australia copes.

Climate change does appear in the Australian Curriculum. But its treatment is fragmented, uneven and often delayed until late secondary school. As a result, many students complete their schooling with only a partial understanding of climate science, risks, and responses.

How climate change appears in the Australian Curriculum

Australia’s national curriculum is set by the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA), with implementation overseen by States and Territories. In the most recent Version 9.0 update, ACARA significantly increased explicit references to climate change across learning areas.

ACARA documents identify more than thirty explicit mentions of climate change across science, geography, humanities, civics and cross-curriculum priorities. This represents a substantial increase compared with earlier versions, where climate change was frequently implicit or peripheral. ^[1]

In secondary school, climate change is most clearly addressed in Science and Geography, particularly in Years 9 and 10. Students are expected to learn about greenhouse gases, energy balance, observed warming, impacts and mitigation strategies. Civics and citizenship subjects may also touch on international climate agreements and governance.

However, the curriculum does not mandate a comprehensive climate learning sequence across all years. Much depends on subject selection, teacher confidence and school priorities.

Primary school climate education: largely optional

In primary school, climate change is rarely taught explicitly. While related concepts appear, such as weather, natural hazards, ecosystems and sustainability, there is no requirement that students understand climate change as a scientific and societal phenomenon.

Analyses of curriculum changes show that earlier geography content dealing with climate systems was reduced in favour of broader environmental themes. This has limited opportunities to introduce climate concepts early in an age-appropriate way. ^[5]

As a result, primary climate education often depends on individual teachers or schools choosing to go beyond minimum requirements. Some schools engage external programs or use state-based resources, but coverage remains inconsistent across jurisdictions.

This gap matters. Research shows that early climate education supports scientific literacy, critical thinking and emotional resilience. Delaying structured climate learning until adolescence risks leaving students unprepared to understand climate impacts they are already experiencing.

Secondary school climate education: uneven depth

Secondary schools provide more formal exposure to climate change, particularly in science. Students typically learn about the enhanced greenhouse effect, evidence of warming and human drivers. Geography classes may examine climate impacts, adaptation, and mitigation.

Yet even at this level, coverage is uneven. Climate change may be treated as one unit among many, sometimes rushed or disconnected from real-world decision making. Teachers report uncertainty about how deeply to engage with policy, economics, or social justice dimensions.

Studies and departmental reviews indicate that some educators avoid climate change due to perceived controversy, lack of training or concern about community backlash. ^[2]

The result is fragmented climate literacy. Students may learn isolated facts without understanding how climate change shapes energy systems, food security, employment, health, or governance.

Barriers teachers face

Teachers operate within crowded curricula and tight time constraints. Literacy and numeracy targets dominate early schooling, leaving little room for emerging cross-cutting issues unless they are clearly prioritised.

Many teachers report limited access to professional development focused on climate pedagogy. While scientific consensus is clear, translating climate knowledge into age-appropriate, solution-focused learning requires support.

There is also concern about student anxiety. Without guidance on constructive framing, some teachers avoid climate discussions rather than risk distress. This avoidance can inadvertently increase anxiety by leaving students without tools to understand or contextualise what they see in the world around them.

Why climate literacy matters

Climate change is no longer a niche scientific topic. It influences infrastructure design, public health planning, agriculture, insurance, defence, energy markets and labour demand. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) has repeatedly warned that climate impacts will intensify across Australia this century. ^[6]

Students leaving school today will enter a workforce shaped by decarbonisation, climate adaptation and disaster response. Climate literacy supports employability, civic participation and democratic decision making.

Young Australians themselves consistently express strong interest in learning about climate change and contributing to solutions. Education systems that ignore this reality risk disengagement and mistrust.

Should climate change be taught more comprehensively?

The evidence strongly suggests yes. A coherent national approach would ensure all students develop climate literacy regardless of school, postcode, or teacher background.

This would involve explicit learning outcomes at each stage of schooling, beginning with foundational concepts in primary years and progressing toward systems thinking, solutions and civic engagement in secondary school.

Climate change should be integrated across disciplines. Mathematics can explore data trends. Civics can examine governance. Arts can explore cultural responses. Science can provide the physical foundation.

Teacher support is essential. Commonwealth and state governments could expand professional development, resource hubs and curriculum guidance aligned with best practice and scientific consensus.

Preparing students for a climate-shaped future

Education alone cannot solve climate change. But without climate-literate citizens, Australia’s capacity to respond is weakened.

Schools shape how young people understand risk, responsibility, and possibility. Teaching climate change clearly, early and constructively is not political advocacy. It is preparation for reality.

The world Australian students will inherit is already warmer than the one their parents knew. Education systems that fail to acknowledge this are not neutral. They are unprepared.

References

1. ACARA: Australian Curriculum Version 9.0 and climate change
2. Australian Government Department of Education: Climate change education
3. IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report
4. Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO: State of the Climate
5. The Conversation: Climate change in the Australian Curriculum
6. CSIRO: Climate change science and impacts

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Burning issue: how the world’s biggest fossil fuel users are driving and reshaping the climate crisis - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Ten countries burning most fossil fuels drive the bulk of global CO₂ emissions and will decide whether the world stays within safe climate limits 1. Emissions from coal, oil and gas hit record highs in 2023 even as clean energy investment accelerates 2. Policy responses among major emitters range from aggressive coal phase‑outs to renewed fossil fuel expansion and subsidy regimes 3. By 2030, fossil fuel demand is projected to peak globally but remain stubbornly high in several producer economies 4. Communities in the top‑emitting countries already face escalating social, economic and ecological damage from a warming climate 5. Planners and policymakers must deliberately wind down fossil fuel production while scaling renewables, efficiency and just transition measures 6.

Heating the planet, one barrel and tonne at a time

Burning coal, oil and gas is still pushing global greenhouse gas emissions to record highs, even as the science makes clear that most fossil fuels must stay in the ground to avoid catastrophic climate change.²

Fossil fuels account for nearly 90% of carbon dioxide released by human activity, driving an “enhanced greenhouse effect” where extra heat is trapped in the atmosphere and oceans.¹

That additional heat is already supercharging deadly heatwaves, extreme rainfall, coral bleaching and bushfires, with impacts felt from Chinese manufacturing hubs to Indian farms and American suburbs.⁵

Responsibility for these emissions is highly concentrated, with ten economies led by China, the United States, India, the European Union and Russia producing the majority of global fossil‑fuel CO₂ each year.¹

These same countries are also central to solutions, because their policies on coal power, oil demand, gas infrastructure and industry will set the pace of the global energy transition this decade.⁴

Recent data suggests global demand for fossil fuels could peak before 2030 under current policies, but not fall fast enough to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C temperature goal.⁴

The choices these major emitters make now – whether to double down on fossil fuels or accelerate clean alternatives – will shape social stability, economic resilience and ecological survival far beyond their borders.⁵

The big ten: who burns the most

Recent emissions inventories show that China, the United States, India, the EU‑27, Russia, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and South Korea are the world’s largest national greenhouse gas emitters, dominated by fossil fuel combustion.¹

Together, these ten economies account for well over half of global fossil fuel consumption and nearly two‑thirds of greenhouse gas emissions, despite representing a smaller share of the world’s population.¹

China alone is responsible for more annual CO₂ from fossil fuels than any other country, driven by coal‑fired power, heavy industry and rising oil use for transport.⁹

The United States follows as the largest historical emitter, with high per‑capita oil and gas consumption, particularly in transport, buildings and electricity generation, although coal has declined.⁹

India’s emissions are growing rapidly from a lower base, as coal still dominates power generation and energy demand rises with industrialisation and urbanisation.⁹

The European Union’s emissions are falling overall, but gas‑fired power, industry and transport still produce substantial CO₂, and several member states remain reliant on imported fossil fuels.⁷

Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran stand out as major fossil fuel exporters whose domestic economies and state budgets are deeply tied to oil and gas production and associated emissions.⁵

Are the biggest emitters changing course

All of the top‑emitting countries have signed the Paris Agreement and pledged to reduce emissions, yet their actual policies on coal, oil and gas vary widely in ambition and credibility.⁵

China has committed to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, has already met its 2030 non‑fossil electricity target early and is adding record amounts of solar and wind capacity, but it is also still approving and building new coal power plants.¹⁰

The United States has legislated major clean energy subsidies and standards through laws such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which are expected to cut power sector emissions and accelerate electric vehicles, yet federal leasing for oil and gas and continued exports undermine a full phase‑out trajectory.¹⁰

India has expanded renewables rapidly and announced a net zero target for 2070, alongside initiatives for green hydrogen and energy efficiency, but it continues to rely on coal for grid stability and affordable power for development.⁹

The European Union has adopted a 2040 climate target, strengthened its emissions trading scheme and set deadlines to phase out unabated coal in many member states, though gas infrastructure and political backlash threaten to slow reforms.⁷

Japan and South Korea have pledged carbon neutrality by mid‑century and are tightening electricity plans, joining international alliances to phase down coal, while still banking on technologies such as co‑firing ammonia and hydrogen in fossil plants.¹

Major producers like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Indonesia continue to plan new oil, gas or coal projects, even as international institutions and civil society call for fossil fuel subsidy reform and clear end dates for extraction and combustion.⁵

What fossil fuel demand could look like in 2030

Energy outlooks from the International Energy Agency project that under today’s stated policies, global demand for coal, oil and gas will peak before 2030, largely due to rapid growth in renewables, electric vehicles and efficiency.⁴

In China, coal use is expected to plateau and then gradually decline this decade as solar, wind and nuclear expand, even though some new coal plants are being built for grid security and industrial demand.⁴

Oil demand in advanced economies including the United States, the European Union, Japan and South Korea is forecast to fall by 2030 as electric vehicles gain market share and fuel economy standards tighten.¹⁴

By contrast, oil and gas demand is projected to remain comparatively resilient in producer economies such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran, unless global climate policy and clean technology deployment move far faster than current trajectories.¹⁷

India and Indonesia are expected to see continued growth in energy demand overall, with scenarios showing coal and gas use peaking later if clean energy finance, technology transfer and grid upgrades fall short.⁸

Across all major emitters, announced pledges that fully implement net zero targets would cut fossil fuel use more sharply by 2030, but most countries have yet to align their detailed plans, investment decisions and subsidy regimes with those goals.⁴

The gap between declared ambition and concrete policy on fossil fuels will determine whether the world overshoots 1.5C in the early 2030s or manages a rapid, more orderly decline in emissions.⁹

Social and economic faultlines

The social consequences of continued fossil fuel use in the top‑emitting countries are already visible in worsening heat stress, lost labour productivity, food insecurity and mounting health impacts from air pollution.³

Farm workers in India and Indonesia are experiencing more days of dangerous heat and humidity, which reduce working hours and incomes while increasing the risk of heatstroke and kidney disease.³

In the United States, heatwaves and wildfire smoke linked to fossil fuel‑driven warming are straining health systems, raising mortality and adding billions of dollars in economic losses each year.⁶

China’s manufacturing regions and coastal cities face rising climate‑related disruption from typhoons, floods and droughts, threatening supply chains that serve global markets.⁹

Communities near coal mines, oilfields and gas export hubs from Russia to Saudi Arabia and Iran remain economically dependent on fossil fuel jobs and royalties, which exposes them to volatility as global demand shifts.⁵

Managing a just transition – where workers, regions and low‑income households are supported through reskilling, social protection and public investment – has become a central political challenge in each of these economies.⁸

Without deliberate planning, the eventual decline of fossil fuel industries could deepen inequality and trigger social unrest, especially in regions that lack economic diversification beyond coal, oil or gas.⁵

Ecological and cultural costs of endless combustion

Ecosystems in the major emitting countries are already under acute stress from the warming and weather extremes driven by continued fossil fuel combustion.³

Rising temperatures and changing rainfall are damaging forests, wetlands and croplands across China, India, Russia and the United States, increasing the risk of fire, pest outbreaks and crop failure.⁹

Ocean warming and acidification, fuelled by CO₂ from fossil fuels, threaten fisheries and coastal communities in Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Iran, undermining food security and cultural practices tied to the sea.³

Indigenous communities from Siberia to the Persian Gulf and North America are seeing traditional lands and livelihoods transformed by melting permafrost, changing animal migrations and more intense storms.⁵

Cultural heritage sites and historic cities in Europe, the Middle East and Asia face increasing risk from sea‑level rise, flooding and heatwaves, challenging conservation efforts and tourism‑based economies.⁷

These ecological and cultural losses are cumulative and often irreversible on human timescales, which means every additional year of high fossil fuel emissions narrows the space for effective adaptation.⁹

The burden falls disproportionately on vulnerable groups – including low‑income households, Indigenous peoples and small‑scale farmers – who have contributed least to historic fossil fuel emissions.⁵

Politics of delay and transition

Fossil fuel politics in the top‑emitting countries are shaped by powerful incumbents, from national oil companies and utilities to industrial lobbies and regions reliant on coal and gas revenue.⁵

At recent UN climate summits, more than 80 countries have pushed for a clear global roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, while major producers and petrostates have fought to weaken or delay commitments.⁴

In the European Union and parts of the United States, political backlash against climate policies has emerged as parties capitalise on concerns about energy prices, jobs and cultural identity.⁷

China and India argue that developed countries should move fastest to cut emissions and provide more finance and technology for clean energy, highlighting historical responsibility and per‑capita disparities.¹²

Producer economies such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran depend heavily on oil and gas export revenue, which creates strong incentives to resist rapid global decarbonisation without credible pathways for diversification.¹⁷

International initiatives like Just Energy Transition Partnerships and emerging campaigns for a Fossil Fuel Non‑Proliferation Treaty aim to co‑ordinate finance, policy and oversight for a fair phase‑down.²

Yet current pledges and funding remain far short of what is needed to support coal regions in South Africa and Indonesia, oil‑dependent economies in the Middle East, and gas‑linked communities in Russia and the United States.⁵

What planners and policymakers must do now

For regional planners and policymakers in the world’s major emitting countries, reducing long‑term climate risk now depends on deliberately managing the decline of fossil fuel use rather than assuming markets will solve it.⁸

Planning systems need to embed carbon budgets and climate risk assessments into decisions on new power stations, industrial zones, housing developments, ports and transport corridors.⁵

Regulators and treasuries must phase out fossil fuel subsidies and reorient public spending toward energy efficiency, public transport, storage, grid upgrades and distributed renewables that cut both emissions and household bills.⁵

Labour market and education policies should support workers in coal mines, oilfields, gas plants and heavy industry with retraining, income support and early‑warning systems for industrial restructuring.⁸

Urban planners in megacities from Beijing to Delhi, Jakarta and Houston can reduce fossil fuel dependence by prioritising compact, transit‑oriented development, building standards that cut energy demand and heat‑resilient public spaces.³

Critically, planners must involve affected communities, Indigenous groups and workers in decision‑making, to build legitimacy for transition plans and reduce the risk of political backlash.⁵

Coordinated regional planning that aligns land‑use, transport, energy and industry can lock in lower‑carbon pathways now and avoid expensive retrofits or stranded assets later this century.⁴

Stopping the burn: adaptation, policy and the end of fossil fuels

Even with rapid emissions cuts, climate impacts will intensify in the coming decades, which means adaptation must happen alongside an accelerated phase‑out of coal, oil and gas in the top‑emitting countries.⁹

Adaptation priorities include heat‑resilient housing and workplaces, upgraded drainage and flood defences, climate‑smart agriculture, coastal protection and disaster‑ready health systems in vulnerable regions.³

To stop burning fossil fuels, governments need clear timelines to end new exploration, halt approvals for unabated coal plants and retire existing fossil infrastructure in line with 1.5C‑consistent carbon budgets.⁵

National climate plans should spell out how and when coal, oil and gas production and consumption will decline, backed by laws, economic instruments and public investment that make clean energy the default choice.⁵

Internationally, richer high‑emitting countries have a responsibility to provide far more climate finance and technology support to emerging economies, so they can leapfrog to renewables instead of locking in fossil‑fuelled growth.¹²

Ultimately, phasing out fossil fuels is less a question of technical feasibility than of political will, public pressure and the speed at which governments decide to shift power, money and planning away from coal, oil and gas.¹

The decisions taken this decade in Beijing, Washington, Delhi, Brussels, Moscow, Riyadh, Jakarta, Tehran, Tokyo and Seoul will determine whether future generations inherit a liveable climate or a dangerously destabilised one.⁹

References

1. Global Carbon Project – Fossil CO₂ emissions at record high in 2023
2. World Resources Institute – Countries phasing out coal the fastest
3. NASA – Emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise
4. Carbon Brief – IEA: Fossil‑fuel use will peak before 2030
5. IISD – Next generation national climate plans must phase out fossil fuels
6. Stanford – Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached record high in 2023
7. Climate Action Tracker – EU policies and action
8. UNFCCC / IISD – Fossil fuel phase‑out and a just transition
9. EDGAR – GHG emissions of all world countries 2024 report
10. Climate Council – Power Shift: The US, China and the race to net zero
11. List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions
12. IEA – Oil 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2030
13. IEEJ – A global energy outlook to 2035 with strategic considerations

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Collapse is near, scientists warn - Julian Cribb

Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

AUTHOR Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

The apocalypse of civilisation is now closer than it has ever been in the whole of human history.

That’s the latest assessment of the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. You know, the chaps who devised the Doomsday Clock, back in 1947, after inventing the atomic bomb and then realising, oops, we may just have signed humanity’s death warrant.

They have just reset the clock at 85 seconds to midnight – the closest to absolute catastrophe it has ever been, even compared with the fearful depths of the Cold War and its mad nuclear arsenals.

This time the reasoning is based on not only on an out-of-control nuclear arms race – but also on the mad behaviour of some of the world’s most powerful countries, galloping global heating, the emerging threat of crazy scientists creating deadly new plagues and the ungoverned use of disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence, especially in the military sphere.

“Russia, China, the United States, and other major countries have instead become increasingly aggressive, adversarial, and nationalistic. Hard-won global understandings are collapsing, accelerating a winner-takes-all great power competition and undermining the international cooperation critical to reducing the risks of nuclear war, climate change, the misuse of biotechnology, the potential threat of artificial intelligence, and other apocalyptic dangers,” says Doomsday editor John Mecklin.

The trouble is that the latest assessment omits at least seven other global catastrophic threats which combine to place us a lot closer to midnight than the Chicago group have calculated. But first to what they are actually measuring in the human death-wish.

They noted an escalation in the threat of nuclear conflict between Europe and Russia, as well as Ukraine and Russia, and – with the withdrawal of the USA, the likely creation of a new European arsenal. The threat was also magnified between India and Pakistan as well as between Israel and Iran, while North Korea has traded its troops as Putin’s cannon-fodder in exchange for Russian nuclear weaponry. Meanwhile the anti-nuclear treaties have mostly fallen in a heap.

“In 2025, the world slipped closer to normalising nuclear risks. There was an almost complete absence of communication on strategic stability among nuclear adversaries and no sustained pressure from non-nuclear weapons countries for engagement. Also worrying is a lack of leadership on nuclear issues, with no country stepping up to stem the growing sense of disorder and breakdown of norms,” the group reported.

On climate it found: “Record-breaking climate trends continued in 2024 and 2025. Globally averaged temperature in 2024 was at the warmest level in 175 years of record-keeping. Likewise, atmospheric carbon dioxide—the greenhouse gas most responsible for human-caused climate change—reached a new high of 152 percent of 1750 levels.”

The average time between major climatic disasters like floods, droughts and hurricanes has decreased from 80 days in the 1980s to just 12 days now. Quote that to those who say nothing has changed.

Meanwhile the Trump, Putin and Al Salman regimes, along with others, are doing everything they can to bake your kids as quickly as possible. Even if all the world’s caron reduction schemes were implemented, the world is still going to +2.5 degrees this century, the Chicago group warns.

Their third major threat of a global wipeout is the recent warning that biotechnology and AI can now be combined to develop a plague capable of destroying not only humans, but most life on Earth along with them.

Dozens of scientists have now proposed creating “mirror life” from living disease organisms in the laboratory. These are organisms with an opposite chirality (molecular shape) to existing pathogens, which means that nobody (and maybe no animal) would have any immunity to them, since our immune system is adapted to molecules of a particular shape.

Scientists and policymakers recently agreed the threat of this happening is real – but there are no global means of controlling or preventing it from happening, especially by malicious actors, the Doomsday Clock authors warn.

The global fascination with Artificial Intelligence has led to a stampede to apply it in as many new uses as possible, before other countries can do so. And this is what is arming and driving the race to use AI to build ever-more dreadful nuclear and biological weapons systems.

At the same time “Increasing chaos, disorder, and dysfunction in the world’s information ecosystem threaten society’s capacity to address difficult challenges, and it is clear that AI has great potential to accelerate these processes of information corruption.”

In short, society will not know if anything is true any longer or not, and will soon lose all ability to make intelligent decisions. It will be reduced to the same informational state as the Dark Age following the fall of the Roman Empire.

Those are the chief factors that caused the Chicago Group to advance the hands of the Doomsday Clock to 85 second to midnight, the harshest warning it has ever uttered.

Despite that, they forgot to mention that:

- Every child on the planet is being poisoned and brain-damaged daily by the ever-growing flood of toxic chemistry released by global society, and hardly anything is being done to halt it.

- The world water crisis is growing worse by the day, and is being exacerbated by global heating. Worldwide, rivers are dying.

- There is an alarming decline in the health of the world’s oceans, due to human activity, while fisheries are collapsing everywhere.

- The world food supply is approaching collapse due to lack of water, loss of topsoil, universal use of poisons and climate change.

- Rates of extinction are accelerating universally with the collapse of ecosystems threatening the survival of humans also.

- Forests are still being felled at unsustainable rates.

- The human population is 8.3 billion and growing at +70 million people a year.

- Human demand for resources is now nearly double what the Earth can supply sustainably.

- Seven of the Earth’s nine safety boundaries have now been breached.

If the scientists of the Chicago Group included these other catastrophic threats to humanity, they would probably push the hands of the Doomsday Clock far closer to midnight than in their latest appraisal, which covers only about one third of the major threats to human existence. They are looking at only a fraction of the problem.

The only way out for humanity of the hole we are digging for ourselves is to develop a binding world agreement, and an action plan, to abate all the threats simultaneously. Not just one or two of them. All of them.

That agreement is the Earth System Treaty, proposed by the Council for the Human Future. Without it we are, quite simply, embracing the Doomsday foretold by the Clock. And sooner than the most informed expect.

Julian Cribb Articles

• De-icing the Earth: a fatal human choice. 
• Rivers of Death
• Unlike politicians, thermometers do not lie
• Welcome to BunkerWorld: Home of the rich and fearful
•  Wisdom of the elders
•  The black work of Big Oil
•  Stealing the Breath of Life
•  The Earth Uncloaked - a catastrophe in slow motion
•  Australia issues ‘terrifying’ climate warning
•  Military experts warn of climate wars
•  Tackling the Earth Emergency
•  A distracted world marches steadily towards catastrophe

Science Warns of Future Where Billions Bake - Gregory Andrews

Lyrebird Dreaming - Gregory Andrews 

Author Gregory Andrews is: Founder and Managing Director of Lyrebird Dreaming A former Australian Ambassador and High Commissioner in West Africa Australia’s first Threatened Species Commissioner A leader in Indigenous policy

As southeastern Australia swelters through its second record-breaking heatwave within weeks, it’s important to connect the dots between the weather here and the global science on a warming world.

A major new study from researchers at the University of Oxford has found that the number of people living with “extreme heat” will nearly double by 2050 if global warming reaches 2°C above pre-industrial levels. 

And we all know this is now a scenario that’s almost certain given the lack of political will for rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions. 

The study shows almost one-quarter of the world’s population are already living under conditions defined as extreme heat. And twenty years from now, that share is set to expand to over 40 per cent - almost 4 billion people.

In practical terms, what the Oxford team modelled is a world where dangerous heat becomes the norm, not the exception. 

Where heatwaves like those Australia is experiencing now aren’t just blips; but rather, sustained heat intense enough to overwhelm human thermoregulation, stress health systems, seriously disrupt food and water supplies, and permanently harm ecological systems. 

This shift is also projected to kick in soon after the 1.5 °C threshold. That means it’s happening!

Heatwaves are already Australia’s most lethal natural hazard. They cause more deaths than bushfires, floods, and cyclones combined, disproportionately affecting older people, outdoor workers, First Nations, low-income communities, and anyone without reliable access to cooling. This isn’t hyperbole - it’s what public health data shows.

The science is crystal clear: climate change isn’t just making heatwaves happen - it’s making them hotter, longer, and more frequent. Human-caused warming amplifies the intensity of heat events by stacking the deck with higher baseline temperatures and stronger extremes. With every fraction of a degree of warming, heatwaves climb to new highs, last longer, and occur more frequently.

So as the mercury keeps hitting highs this summer, we can’t treat these events as isolated weather anomalies. They are yet another warning bell of a climate system responding to centuries of burning coal, oil, and gas. And they remind us why half-hearted climate targets and offset accounting won’t cut it. 

The world the Oxford researchers describe - one where billions live under prolonged extreme heat - is set to become our children’s normal. 

References  

• Nearly half the world’s population will experience extreme heat under 2 °C warming
• IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Synthesis Report
• Climate change and health, World Health Organization
• State of the Climate in Australia, Bureau of Meteorology
• State of the Climate, CSIRO
• Increasing frequency and intensity of heat extremes due to human influence
• Extreme heat and human health, Australian Government Department of Health
• The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change
• Emissions Gap Report, United Nations Environment Programme
• Heatwaves are Australia’s new normal and they’re going to get worse

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Southward Bound: How Warming Seas Are Driving Sharks and Marine Life Down Australia’s Coast - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Sharks shifting south along east coast1 Ocean temps hit record highs2 Poleward migration global trend3 Threats to fisheries, biodiversity4 Expert warnings on habitat squeeze5 Urgent need for policy shifts6

Off Nambucca Heads, on the NSW Mid North Coast, a research vessel slices through dawn haze as a bull shark's fin slices the surface, a sight once rare this far south.

Scientists aboard, from UNSW's marine lab, tag the creature, noting water at 28°C, 2°C above norms for January 2026².

This shark has journeyed 500km south from Queensland, chasing tolerable temps amid the East Australian Current's relentless push¹.

CSIRO data logs east coast seas warming 0.8°C per decade since 2015, mirroring global trends driving marine life poleward².

White sharks now linger off Sydney year-round, bull sharks extend NSW stays by a day yearly, and hammerheads invade Tasmania's cooler realms¹.

It's not isolated: tuna, turtles, coral fish follow suit, reshaping ocean food webs from Cairns to the Roaring Forties³.

As Australia enters uncharted oceanic territory by 2040, fishers and ecologists warn of collapsing quotas, novel predators, and biodiversity flux⁴.

Record Warming Fuels Flight

IMOS (Integrated Marine Observing System) buoys off Sydney Harbour clocked 2025's peak sea surface temps at 29.5°C, shattering records by 1.2°C, per CSIRO's annual marine update². 

This heat spike, tied to a third global coral bleaching event, forces ectotherms like sharks – reliant on ambient water for thermoregulation – to migrate or perish. NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) 2026 ocean heat content data confirms southern hemispheres absorbing 91% of excess planetary warmth, accelerating the East Australian Current southward by 3km yearly¹⁰.

Dr Jessica Meeuwig, UWA marine ecologist, observes: "Sharks are grey nomads heading south as tropics turn lethal – bull sharks now claim three extra NSW months by 2030."¹ 

Her team's acoustic tracking reveals juveniles extending Sydney sojourns 15 days over 15 years. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR6 projects 2–4°C east coast rises by 2100 under medium emissions, compressing habitable bands¹¹.

Parallel global patterns emerge: US Northeast lobster fisheries crashed as warming evicted them poleward 240km since 1960s, per EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) indicators⁹. 

In Australia, scalloped hammerheads – once tropical – now prowl Jervis Bay, displacing locals.

Shark Shuffle Disrupts Food Webs

Bull sharks shadowing estuaries chase whiting and bream southward, starving northern prey stocks while novel competition hits Tasmanian cool-water species¹. 

UNSW's Dr Blake Lubitz models bull shark range expanding 500km south by 2050, overlapping with declining gummy sharks. Trophic cascades loom: overabundant tropicals devour juvenile temperate fish, eroding biodiversity hotspots like Twofold Shelf⁵.

"Habitat compression squeezes juveniles – north retreats, south no refuge yet," warns Southern Cross University's Adrienne Gooden, tracking whites via satellites¹. 

Her data shows sub-adults clustering at 16–24°C optima, now shifting Victoria-NSW borders. University of Tasmania's Gretta Pecl documents 82% of southeast species poleward-bound, averaging 59km/decade¹².

Coral trout and red emperor, reef icons, flee a warming GBR (Great Barrier Reef) at 7km/year, per AIMS (Australian Institute of Marine Science) long-term monitoring, invading southern trawl grounds⁴.

Fisheries Face Flux

Commercial prawners off Eden report 40% bull shark bycatch hikes since 2023, shredding nets and slashing hauls, says NSW DPI (New South Wales Department of Primary Industries) fisher logs¹. 

Quotas for southern calamari plummet as invaders disrupt spawning; kingfish – shifting 102km/decade east coast – evade traditional gillnets⁶. 

Economic toll: $200m annual hit projected for east coast fleets by 2040, per FRDC (Fisheries Research and Development Corporation) climate vulnerability assessment.

Local fisher Mick Reilly, Stroud Holidays charter captain, laments: "Used to dodge tigers north of Coffs; now makos tail us to Port Stephens – clients spooked, bookings down 30%."¹ 

Recreational sectors echo pain: surf clubs log novel white shark patrols from Seal Rocks to Bicheno. Tasmania's abalone divers face hammerhead swarms, halting harvests.

IPCC flags fisheries yield drops 20–30% in tropics, gains fleeting in poles before ecosystems destabilise¹¹.

Global Echoes, Local Alarms

CSIRO-IMOS fusion maps tuna poleward at 400km/decade globally, greens turtles nesting south to Sydney for cooler hatcheries². 

Peer-reviewed meta-analysis in Nature Climate Change (2023) tracks 595 fish stocks: 70% poleward, velocity matching heat gradients³. 

European sardines oust herring; Alaskan pollock southbound on cool cycles.

University of Sunshine Coast's Alice Pidd notes: "Kingfish blitz 102km/decade here – rules for parks, quotas must evolve."⁴ 

Deakin's Louisa Graf probes Victorian rays: tropicals outcompete, pushing cold-affiliates westward. NOAA's Gulf models predict snapper 300km north by 2050 – Australia's mirror inverted.

Ocean acidosis compounds: undersaturated aragonite dissolves pteropod shells, base of shark food chains¹⁰.

Adaptation Hurdles Ahead

Marine parks like Solitary Islands face invader influx sans tropical exclusion; dynamic boundaries needed, urges IMOS director². 

Fisheries quotas lag migrations – AFMA's (Australian Fisheries Management Authority) static TACCs (Total Allowable Commercial Catches) blind to 20km/year shifts. Policy lag risks extinctions: whitefin swellsharks retreat Bass Strait under dual fishing-heat pressure⁸.

Prof David Schoeman (UniSC) cautions: "Post-2040 averages exceed 2015 extremes – conservation paradigms obsolete."⁶ 

UNSW advocates AI-driven acoustic arrays for real-time tracking, feeding adaptive management.

 Community co-design is vital: First Nations knowledge integrates holistically with western science for resilient parks.

Federal marine estate review, due 2027, must embed climate velocity, or watch icons flee.

References

• Sharks seek sea change as ocean temperatures rise - ABC News
• Ocean Warming and Marine Life Migration - Seaside Sustainability
• Study: Most marine fish are responding to ocean warming by relocating toward the poles - Global Seafood
• Marine wildlife fleeing to poles due to global heating - Island Times
• Feeling the Heat: Warming Oceans Drive Fish Into Cooler Waters - Yale E360
• Climate change: global heating warming oceans uncharted future Australia - The Guardian
• Warming oceans are changing marine habitats - The Invading Sea
• Global warming to reshape Australian shark and ray populations - Marine Conservation
• Climate Change Indicators: Marine Species Distribution - US EPA
• Climate Change Indicators: Marine Species Distribution - NOAA
• IPCC AR6 Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change
• IMOS-UTAS Marine Migration Atlas

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