Mending the Planet: The Power of Wind, Sun, and Nature’s Networks - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Rapidly decarbonise global electricity systems[2] Phase out coal, oil, and unabated gas completely[1] Electrify transport, heating, and industry while improving efficiency[2] Slash methane and other short-lived pollutants[4] Protect and restore forests, soils, and blue carbon ecosystems[5] Invest in carbon removal and end fossil fuel subsidies[6]

Stopping global warming demands swift, systemic change across energy, transport, land, and industrial systems.

Scientists agree that deep, rapid cuts to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are the only way to avoid catastrophic climate disruption. ^[1]

The five most critical steps are decarbonising electricity, phasing out fossil fuels, electrifying demand, reducing methane, and protecting natural carbon sinks. ^[2]

These measures must work together, since partial action leaves major sources of emissions unchecked and global temperatures rising. ^[1]

Governments, industries, and citizens all have clear, immediate roles to play in reshaping economies and energy use within this decade. ^[2]

Fast, collective action not only cuts emissions, but also improves air quality, public health, and economic stability. ^[2]

This article explains the five highest-impact strategies to halt global warming, backed by the best available evidence. ^[1]

1. Decarbonise electricity at scale

Electricity generation produces about one-third of global carbon emissions, making it the first sector that must reach net zero. ^[2]

Replacing coal and gas with renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower delivers the fastest and most reliable emissions cuts. ^[2]

Countries that invest heavily in renewable capacity and grid upgrades achieve both cleaner power and cheaper electricity. ^[2]

Governments can accelerate progress through stable policies, long-term investment incentives, and fair access to clean energy technologies. ^[2]

2. End unabated fossil fuel combustion

The burning of coal, oil, and gas without carbon capture remains the single largest source of global warming. ^[3]

Phasing out coal power, restricting new oil and gas developments, and capping existing production are vital steps to stay within carbon limits. ^[1]

Every year of delay increases the need for costly and uncertain carbon removal technologies later this century. ^[1]

Ending fossil fuel subsidies and implementing transparent carbon pricing would shift investment decisively toward clean alternatives. ^[6]

3. Electrify demand and boost efficiency

Transport, heating, and industrial processes that currently rely on fossil fuels can run on clean electricity, sharply cutting emissions. ^[2]

Energy efficiency—through better building design, advanced appliances, and modern manufacturing—reduces waste and demand simultaneously. ^[2]

Electric vehicles, heat pumps, and industrial electrification together can remove billions of tonnes of CO₂ each year when powered by renewables. ^[2]

Strong standards, rebates, and infrastructure investment make electrification accessible and affordable for households and businesses alike. ^[2]

4. Cut methane and other short-lived pollutants

Methane traps far more heat than carbon dioxide, but it breaks down within decades, so reducing it offers rapid climate benefits. ^[4]

Most methane emissions come from fossil fuel leaks, agriculture, and waste—sectors where solutions already exist and are relatively inexpensive. ^[4]

The Global Methane Pledge aims to cut emissions by 30 per cent by 2030, a step that could slow near-term warming measurably. ^[4]

Modern monitoring and regulations can identify leaks, enforce reductions, and deliver one of the quickest wins in climate policy. ^[4]

5. Protect and restore natural carbon sinks

Forests, soils, wetlands, and coastal ecosystems absorb huge amounts of carbon and shield humanity from extreme weather. ^[5]

Stopping deforestation, restoring damaged landscapes, and expanding blue carbon habitats offer cost-effective, nature-based mitigation. ^[5]

These ecosystems also protect biodiversity and support local communities, making climate and conservation goals mutually reinforcing. ^[5]

Strong land rights, transparent governance, and long-term finance are essential to safeguard nature’s role in climate stability. ^[5]

Beyond the five steps

Even with full implementation of these measures, residual industrial emissions will require carbon capture or removal technologies. ^[1]

Such technologies must complement, not replace, deep emission cuts and responsible resource management. ^[1]

Rapid decarbonisation also brings cleaner air, new industries, and enhanced energy security—benefits that extend far beyond climate goals. ^[2]

What remains essential is coordinated global action that turns pledges into measurable progress. ^[6]

Conclusion

To stop global warming, the world must act simultaneously on power, pollution, and protection of natural systems. ^[1]

No single technology or country can achieve this alone, but collective resolve can still steer humanity toward safety. ^[2]

The decisive years are now, not later—what nations do this decade will define the planet’s trajectory for centuries. ^[6]

Implementing these five proven actions gives the world its best and last realistic chance to stop global warming. ^[1]

References

1. IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change — Summary for Policymakers.
2. International Energy Agency, Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.
3. Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Budget (latest assessment and data).
4. Climate and Clean Air Coalition and UNEP, Global Methane Assessment (2021).
5. Global Forest Watch, Global forest change and primary forest loss data.
6. World Meteorological Organization data reported by Reuters, CO₂ levels hit highest ever recorded (2025).

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Forty per cent of Australian women without kids hesitant to have children because of climate change, survey finds - The Guardian

 The Guardian - Donna Lu

More than a third of Coalition voters
believe temperatures will not rise at all, poll shows

The survey has found that while 40.4% of women said they were hesitant about having children due to the changing climate, only 17% of men shared that opinion. Photograph: abriendomundo/Getty Images

About 40% of Australian women without kids say they are hesitant to have children because of climate change, a new survey suggests.

The survey, on attitudes about the impacts of global heating, also found that half of Australians were very or extremely concerned about climate change and two in five believed the climate would be “much hotter” in 2050.

Commissioned by Clive Hamilton, a professor of public ethics at Charles Sturt University, and carried out by Roy Morgan Research, the survey also found that more than a third of Coalition voters believed the climate would not change at all.

The survey – which involved a nationally representative sample of 2,000 people – found Labor, Greens and independent voters were three times more likely to express high levels of concern about climate change compared with conservative voters.

Concern about climate change was also much more strongly correlated with education level than with age.

Among parents, three in five Labor voters expressed high concern about their children’s future in a changing climate, compared with one in five Coalition voters.

“Compared to men, women expect it to become hotter, are more anxious, and feel more insecure due to the changing climate, suggesting values of care make them more open to the scientific warnings of danger,” Hamilton wrote in a research paper on the survey findings.

Among non-parents, 40.4% of women said they were moderately or very hesitant about having children because of the changing climate, but only 17% of men (one in six) reported the same.

Hamilton suggests that greater hesitancy among women points to a “gendered calculus of risk”.

“Evidence we do have suggests that values of care make women much more open to the alarming nature of the scientific evidence and the visceral impact that weather events have on people,” he said.

Rising levels of climate concern could result in a decline in Australia’s birthrate, Hamilton added.

“There’s a massive disconnect between the conversations that are being had among young people about having children, and government and policy discussions about Australia’s demographic future,” he said. “This survey shows that this is an issue that can’t be ignored.”

The findings roughly align with those of a 2019 Australian Conservation Foundation survey, which found that one in three Australian women under 30 said they were reconsidering having children because of concerns about “an unsafe future from climate change”.

The Roy Morgan survey also involved respondents in areas affected by floods and fires since 2019. Living through extreme weather events had only a small effect on concern about climate change, it found.

“People have ways of explaining it away, or attributing it to natural factors, or are … unwilling to blame climate change for their misfortune,” Hamilton said.

Prof Iain Walker, a social psychologist at the University of Melbourne who was not involved in the survey, said that finding was consistent with other research both from Australia and internationally, which suggested that “experiencing extreme weather events makes little difference, and what difference it does make is likely short-lived”.

“I think the explanation to the counterintuitive effect lies in how people interpret the weather event,” Walker said. “People who already accept anthropogenic climate change will accept a flood or heatwave as more evidence that climate change is happening; those who already reject climate change will explain away the extreme weather events.”

Though the areas the survey identified as affected by extreme weather events were outside capital cities, it found that concern about the climate crisis was somewhat higher in cities than regional areas.

Links

• Recent Australian survey by Clive Hamilton / Roy Morgan Research
• Australia’s horrifying climate future in four charts – and how we can avoid the worst 
• The women choosing the climate over having a baby
• What do Australians think about climate change?
• Women’s Environmental Leadership Australia Report: Gender, Climate and Environmental Justice in Australia
• New survey shows women will change their lives – and votes – for climate action
• Climate change, mental health, and reproductive decision‑making: A systematic review
• The Climate Load (Australia)

COP30: A Test for Global Climate Action - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

COP30 is the next major test of the Paris process and global climate cooperation.[1] Delivery on finance, especially loss, damage, and adaptation, will shape outcomes.[5] Renewable energy and sustainable biofuels will be highlighted as implementation pathways.[8] Geopolitics and uneven national commitments threaten collective progress.[3] Operationalising previous decisions, not only new pledges, is a central test.[0] Civil society and Indigenous voices will press for equitable, transparent finance, and protection of forests.[5]

COP30 in Belém will test whether past summit promises become measurable action.

The summit’s outcome will hinge on finance, implementation, adaptation, and political will.

Countries must show updated national commitments, and measurable progress toward the 1.5°C goal.

If finance pledges for loss, damage, and adaptation remain vague, the summit will have limited impact.

Renewable energy scale-up, and sustainable biofuels are practical pathways that delegations will promote.

Geopolitical tensions and uneven ambition among major emitters pose the summit’s greatest constraint.

Civil society and Indigenous groups will watch closely for commitments that protect forests and frontline communities.

Why COP30 matters

COP30 is the main annual multilateral forum where nearly all countries negotiate collective climate action under the UNFCCC framework.^[1]

The conference comes after COP29, which focused attention on a new collective quantified finance goal and revealed deep divides on resource allocation.^[3]

COP30 in Belém offers an opportunity to move from broad commitments to operational detail on finance, adaptation, and implementation of the UAE consensus, and other prior decisions.^[0]

The selection of Belém and the Amazon setting places forests and land use on the agenda in a symbolic and practical way for global mitigation and biodiversity links.^[9]

Key agenda items

Countries will present updated nationally determined contributions or explain why updates are delayed, which affects credibility and aggregated ambition.^[6]

Operationalising finance flows to support mitigation, adaptation, and the Loss and Damage Fund will be a central negotiating thread.^[5]

The UAE Consensus goals on tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency remain implementation priorities and will be reviewed for progress and concrete pledges.^[4]

Sustainable biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel targets are expected to feature as specific sectoral measures to reduce emissions in hard-to-abate transport sectors.^[8]

Main obstacles

The single largest obstacle is the political gap between wealthy and developing countries over who pays for historical and ongoing losses caused by climate change.^[5]

Another obstacle is the uneven updating of pledges, with only a minority of countries submitting robust new NDCs on the timetable many analysts expected.^[6]

Geopolitical strain, including reduced engagement by some major powers, complicates consensus building and reduces pressure for strong outcomes.^[11]

Technical and institutional hurdles remain in converting high-level finance pledges into accessible, on-the-ground funding for adaptation and loss and damage.

Finance and loss and damage

Progress on the Loss and Damage Fund’s mobilisation and disbursement mechanisms will determine whether vulnerable states see material relief this decade.^[5]

Donor pledges must be paired with transparent rules that reduce bureaucratic barriers and ensure funds reach communities rather than being delayed by administrative complexity.^[9]

Discussions about a new collective quantified finance goal aim to set a clear numeric target for climate finance flows to 2035 and beyond, but details remain contentious.^[3]

Politics, implementation, and credibility

Delivering measurable implementation of existing agreements will matter more than symbolic language in the final COP texts.^[0]

Host country priorities shape agenda weight and Brazil’s choice of Belém highlights land use, forest protection, and the Amazon’s role in climate stability.^[9]

Civil society scrutiny and Indigenous advocacy will be crucial in holding negotiators to commitments and making the process more accountable.^[5]

Outcomes to watch

Successful COP30 outcomes would include clear operational rules for loss and damage disbursement and a timetable for increased adaptation finance.^[5]

Concrete sectoral pledges, such as biofuel production targets or renewable deployment roadmaps, will show implementation focus beyond abstract language.^[8]

A failure to define financing mechanisms, or to secure stronger NDCs, would leave the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal increasingly out of reach.

Conclusion

COP30 is less a single decisive moment than a step in a long sequence, where implementation and finance must finally catch up to rhetoric.

The summit’s true measure will be whether negotiators turn prior commitments into clear funds, programs, and verifiable national actions.

For citizens and vulnerable communities, the most important outcome will be material support for adaptation and loss recovery, rather than new promises alone.^[5]

References

1. Why COP30 matters & how it can succeed (C2ES PDF)
2. About COP30 - UNFCCC
3. COP29: Progresses and challenges to global efforts on the climate
4. Delivering on the UAE Consensus: Tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity (IRENA)
5. Loss and Damage: a people’s priority to be upheld at COP30 (Amnesty)
6. About COP30 (COP30 official site)
7. IRENA chief expects sustainable biofuels to feature as key COP30 theme (Reuters)
8. COP30: Optimistic Brazil seeks to secure concrete progress on climate action (Le Monde)
9. COP 29: Progress, pitfalls, and the road ahead for climate action (Hogan Lovells)

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Stealing the Breath of Life - Julian Cribb

 Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

I was much further out than you thought. 
And not waving but drowning – Stevie Smith, 1957 

AUTHOR

Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

When you suffocate or drown, every fibre of your being cries out for the breath of life, oxygen. It is the body’s ungovernable response to the extinguishing of your flame.

Could that really be the fate that today’s humans, knowingly or not, are engineering for their children and grandchildren? To choke out on a planet whose atmosphere can no longer support our kind?

The scientifically attested facts make unpleasant, but necessary reading. Oxygen levels in the air and seas of our frail blue Planet have been going down slowly for eons. Then, suddenly, in a rush.

Just over ten years ago two scientists, Ralph Keeling and Andrew Manning, who had been carefully observing the sharp rise in the Earth’s atmospheric CO2 due to human burning of fossil fuels and felling of forests noticed something else: it was parallelled by a fall in oxygen levels.

Figure 1. Decline in Earth’s atmospheric oxygen levels, 
measured over the Southern Ocean at Cape Grim, Australia 1990-2024.
 Source: Scripps Institute.

 Back when the dinosaurs reigned, Earth’s atmosphere contained 23-28% oxygen, which was probably needful to support their massive frames. Today the number is just under 21%, and falling by about 4 parts per million (ppm) a year. 

A steady decline over the last million years has accelerated sharply in the last 150, with 12% of the loss occurring on modern society’s brief watch (just 0.015% of the elapsed time).

The explanation is not far to seek: every CO2 molecule we create when we start a car, burn coal or light a barbecue sucks two molecules of breathable oxygen out of the air. 

In a typical year our carbon emissions alone remove around 100 billion tonnes of oxygen from the atmosphere. And that does not include the CO2 or methane emitted by 8.2 billion humans and their 100 billion livestock.

But there is an added twist to the story which makes it far more scary. The world’s oceans and forests, the planet’s primary oxygen pumps, are dying – and the reason is us.

Atmosphere

Human activities and climate change are increasingly disrupting the natural oxygen cycle, which has maintained Earth’s atmosphere for hundreds of millions of years. 

Deforestation, land clearing, the spread of deserts, industrial pollution and urban sprawl are reducing the number of trees and plants, which are the source of photosynthesis, the sun-powered process that produces the oxygen we breathe.

Earth’s air is not naturally rich in oxygen. It has probably only been ‘breathable’ for about 20-30% of the planet’s existence. For the first two or three billion years since life appeared there was almost no O2, much like Mars today. 

The life that existed then did not need it – indeed, oxygen was the waste that they excreted – and the gas did not begin to rise sharply until the ‘Oxygen Catastrophe’ which almost obliterated life between 2400 million and 2000 million years ago. 

The air itself did not become rich in oxygen until around 850 million years ago. Thereafter some living organisms adapted to using oxygen and, around 700 million years ago this gave rise to explosion of different species we know as the ‘Tree of Life’, including ourselves.

Hereafter atmospheric oxygen levels are expected to continue a slow, steady decline - unless humans do something particularly stupid to speed it up.

Oceans

Globally, the ocean has lost around 2% of its dissolved oxygen since the 1950s and is predicted to lose a further 1–7% by 2100.

Although oxygen levels vary by region, most parts of the ocean are experiencing loss. This is chiefly due to ocean warming, as warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen. 

Warming also causes the oceans to stratify or form layers, meaning that oxygen is less well mixed into the deeper waters which then become hostile to life.

More than 500 ‘ocean dead zones’ have been detected around the world, generally in coastal regions close to heavy human populations or farming areas. Their numbers are increasing as humanity proliferates.

The zones are largely driven by eutrophication – the over-enrichment of sea water by fertiliser, eroded topsoil, human sewage and industrial wastes. This causes algal blooms which then die and are devoured by bacterial blooms. These bacteria then strip the oxygen out of the water, producing a ‘dead’ layer than cannot support normal sea life.

The oceans are the main source of oxygen in the air we breathe, their plankton producing more than half of what currently keeps us alive.

It should therefore come as a profound concern that Chinese scientists have recently reported that the oceans are becoming less green. The decline in greenness is due to a loss of chlorophyll, which is the chemical in plants that enables them to absorb sunlight and use it to convert CO2 to oxygen. And the chlorophyll is declining due to ocean warming.

Overall, this indicates that the major Earth process which forms a breathable atmosphere may be breaking down - and humans are to blame.

The picture is far from uniform, but as the scientists caution “Our analysis suggests widespread decline in ocean greenness”. And that spells trouble for folk who wish to breathe, not just now maybe – but certainly later.

Coupled with the decline in ocean greenness is the equally disturbing rise in ocean acidity – a factor that has now breached planetary safety limits, according to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Ocean acidification is caused by CO₂ from the burning of fossil fuels dissolving into seawater, which forms carbonic acid, turning the ocean slightly more acidic. Since the 1850s, the acidity of the oceans has increased by around 30–40%. 

The implications for sea life are immense: it directly affects organisms with calcium carbonate shells and skeletons, like corals, shellfish and many kinds of plankton, disrupting food webs that stretch all the way from microscopic sea life to fish, whales and, ultimately, humans. This affects the total productivity of the oceans and, ultimately, their ability to yield oxygen.

Failing forests

On land, the picture is, if anything, more disturbing. Prior to humans, 57 per cent of the Earth’s land area was cloaking in forest. Today that number is 31 per cent and falling, meaning we have nearly halved the original area of forest. 

What remains is far from healthy, having been logged, thinned, fragmented and altered vastly from its natural state by human activities including roads, farms and towns. This greatly reduces its ability to generate fresh oxygen and, to make matters worse, some forests have become net emitters of CO2.

Recently some people have taken comfort in the fact that the Earth overall is becoming greener, incorrectly believing it is due to higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere. In fact, it is due to the spread of grasses in the form of crops and pastures, as humans replace forests with agriculture. And grasses produce nothing like the amount of oxygen that forests do. By feeding our vast numbers we are building a planet on which it will be harder to breathe.

Like global warming, the new ‘Oxygen Holocaust’ is starting slowly and many may pretend it is of small concern. But the power of humans to engineer vast change in the Earth has always been underestimated. Our ability to disable the oxygen machine is just the latest twist in the saga of our planetary mismanagement.

For instance, most people assume we will manage to halt global heating at +2 or at most +4 degrees. In fact, at present rates of fossil fuel use, the planet will hit +8 degrees within a century or two. The misunderstanding arises from the fact that 2100 (+4) is the furthest ahead that current IPCC forecasts look, whereas actual heating continues long after.

Coupled with reducing the Earth to a charred cinder is the fact that we are, by the same mechanisms, building a planet with an unbreathable atmosphere – one with less than 19.5 per cent of free oxygen.

Human impacts

The potential consequences of decreased oxygen levels are vast, affecting both individual health and society’s ability to function. Low oxygen availability causes lung problems, especially for the old, the very young and those with respiratory conditions.

Crucially – as any diver or mountaineer can tell you - low oxygen levels impair your ability to think, to reason, to make good decisions. This damages productivity and quality of life for the whole of a more thoughtless society.

As resources become scarcer, competition for access to clean air and water will exacerbate existing inequalities. This may heighten social unrest, geopolitical tensions and conflict, as nations struggle to exist in a disintegrating world. Two industries particularly vulnerable to lower oxygen levels are animal agriculture and fish aquaculture, our main sources of protein.

At present the decline in global oxygen is small, and no cause for panic. But the human ability to geoengineer catastrophe is large – and growing every day.

Unless we grasp the mistakes we are making with a clear mind and reverse them, we may steal the very breath of life from our grandchildren.

What kind of a parent does that? 

Links

• Studies of recent changes in atmospheric O2 content
• Earth’s Atmospheric Oxygen Decline: Causes, Consequences, and Projections
• Great Oxidation Event
• The future lifespan of Earth’s oxygenated atmosphere
• What Are Ocean Dead Zones?
• How much oxygen comes from the ocean?
• Declining ocean greenness and phytoplankton blooms in low to mid-latitudes under a warming climate
• Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached – ocean acidification joins the danger zone
• The Effects of Ocean Acidification on Phytoplankton Communities
• The Earth Uncloaked - a catastrophe in slow motion
• Vegetation greenness in 2024
• Past and future warming – direct comparison on multi-century timescales
• Minimum Oxygen Concentration For Human Breathing

Unanswered Questions: Australia’s Uncertain Future in a Warming World - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Regional rainfall shifts remain uncertain and matter for water security.[1] Sea level rise will vary locally and threatens low coastal infrastructure.[2] Marine heatwaves are driving repeated coral bleaching events.[3] Heat, drought, and pests complicate future crop yields and livestock health.[4] Longer fire seasons change risk management needs for communities.[1] Gaps in health, insurance, and social planning leave the vulnerable exposed.[5]

Australia is heating up.

The science on that point is no longer in dispute.

Yet as the continent bakes, vital details about what happens next remain elusive.

Scientists can trace unmistakable trends in rising temperatures, shifting sea levels, and intensifying extremes. 

But the precise fallout — how these forces will collide in a particular valley, city, or reef — is harder to predict.

That uncertainty leaves governments and communities staring at an incomplete map. 

The missing pieces matter profoundly: water reliability, food security, coastal resilience, and public health all depend on knowing what lies ahead.

Across Australia, planners and researchers are confronting questions that remain open-ended: questions about timing, scale, and the interactions shaping a hotter, more volatile climate.

This article outlines the central scientific gaps still confronting Australia’s response to climate change and draws on authoritative research to illuminate what is known, and what is not. ^[2]

For those charged with preparing the nation for the century’s defining test, acknowledging those uncertainties may be the surest way to act before it is too late.

Regional climate and extremes

Key uncertainties remain about how rainfall patterns will change across Australia’s diverse climate zones. ^[1]

Climate models consistently project hotter average temperatures, but disagree on magnitude and seasonality of rainfall shifts in northern and central Australia. ^[1]

Scientists also cannot yet say precisely how the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will change in all coastal cities. ^[2]

Interactions among large scale modes such as ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Southern Annular Mode, add uncertainty to extreme-season forecasts. ^[2]

Sea level rise and coasts

Global sea level projections provide a range, but local rise around Australia will vary because of ocean dynamics and land movement. ^[2]

That spatial variability makes it hard to set uniform standards for coastal planning and insurance pricing. ^[6]

Uncertainty about extreme sea level events combined with storm surge and rainfall driven flooding complicates evacuation and infrastructure design. ^[2]

Oceans reefs and marine ecosystems

Marine heatwaves are increasing and are a major driver of repeated mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef. ^[3]

Researchers still lack precise thresholds for when reefs shift from recovery to long term decline under recurring heat stress. ^[3]

Questions also remain about the speed at which kelp forests, seagrass, and commercially important fish, will move or collapse. ^[7]

Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

Many Australian species are range restricted, and scientists are uncertain whether migration corridors or microrefugia (small, local areas with stable microclimates that allow species to survive during regional environmental changes) will be sufficient. ^[9]

There is also limited empirical evidence about ecosystem tipping points where repeated disturbances prevent recovery. ^[11]

Understanding evolutionary adaptation rates for key species remains an open research priority. ^[9]

Agriculture water and food systems

Projected changes in rainfall evaporation and frost alter crop suitability, but the net effect on yields varies by crop technology and location. ^[4]

Scientists still need better integrated models that combine pests, diseases, soil change, and social adaptation at farm scale. ^[4]

Water allocation rules and groundwater responses to climate extremes are another domain with substantial practical uncertainty. ^[1]

Bushfires compound events and long term landscape change

Fire seasons are lengthening in many parts of Australia, but the compound effect of repeated fires, drought, and subsequent floods is not well quantified. ^[2]

There is uncertainty about how vegetation types will convert permanently after successive high severity fires. ^[13]

Human health social systems and inequality

Heat related illness and mental health impacts are rising, but long term burden estimates depend on adaptation capacity and public health responses. ^[5]

Questions remain about internal migration patterns from high risk regions and how cities will absorb displaced people. ^[11]

Economy insurance and governance

The economic tipping points where assets become effectively uninsurable or abandoned are not fully modelled for many communities. ^[6]

Policymakers also lack integrated costed pathways that combine mitigation adaptation and social protection at the national scale. ^[11]

Research gaps and how science can help

Closing these gaps requires better regional projections, long term ecological monitoring, and cross-disciplinary modelling. ^[1]

It also requires open data, local engagement, and investments in health infrastructure, emergency services, and natural systems monitoring. ^[5]

Finally, workers and communities need relevant information, not just global averages, so adaptation can be targeted. ^[11]

Conclusion

Australia faces known risks and clear unknowns that matter directly to water, food, health, and heritage. ^[2]

Addressing unanswered questions will require sustained funding, transdisciplinary teams, and stronger links between science and policy. ^[1]

Transparent sharing of projections and assumptions will help communities make informed choices about adaptation and risk. ^[11]

References

1. Climate Change in Australia — Climate Projections for global warming levels
2. CSIRO State of the Climate
3. AIMS — Coral bleaching events
4. CSIRO — Climate mitigation and adaptation in agriculture
5. MJA–Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia 2024
6. CSIRO — Climate projections and regional information for Australia
7. Australian Academy of Science — The risks to Australia of a 3°C warmer world
8. IPCC AR6 Working Group I — The Physical Science Basis
9. CSIRO — Australia’s changing climate and fire weather
10. AIMS — World’s biggest coral survey confirms sharp decline
11. Australian Academy of Science — Climate change reports and policy analysis
12. Bureau of Meteorology — State of the Climate
13. CSIRO — Fire science and land management

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Q&A: Which regions in Australia face highest sea-level risk by 2050? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

By 2050, over 1.5 million Australians face sea-level rise threats1 Queensland, NSW, and Victoria are the most exposed states3 Critical risks include flooding, erosion, and community displacement4 Adaptation strategies are required for all coastal cities5 Mitigation needs immediate emissions reductions6 Insured and uninsured property losses will be vast7

Sea-Level Rise in Australia: Regions, Risks, and The Path Forward

Australia’s coastline faces a major reckoning by 2050 as sea levels climb faster, reshaping both habitats and human settlements.¹

More than 1.5 million people living along the country’s shores are at direct risk from flooding, erosion, and displacement, according to the latest national climate risk assessment.¹

Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria are the most vulnerable, with urban areas from Brisbane to Sydney, Melbourne, and up to the northern coasts likely to encounter the greatest impacts.³

By mid-century, sea levels around Australia could rise by 15 to 30 centimetres, transforming frequent high-tide flooding into a constant threat for coastal communities.²

Much of Australia’s infrastructure, homes, and vital ecosystems are clustered within 50 kilometres of the ocean and will face irreparable damage from inundation, storm surge, and beach loss.⁴

Projected financial damages are immense, with values in the tens of billions of dollars not covered by insurance and property devaluation already underway.⁷

Without rapid and deep emissions cuts, projected warming of more than 2°C would lock Australia into decades of worsening sea-level risks.⁶

Urgent adaptation policies, both public and private, are needed to safeguard the nation’s coasts, manage retreat from at-risk zones, and ensure a just transition for affected communities.⁵

Regions of Highest Concern by 2050

The newly released National Climate Risk Assessment identifies coastal Queensland as the state most at risk, home to 18 of the 20 most-exposed local government areas.³

This includes low-lying suburbs stretching from Cairns in the north through Townsville and down to the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane.

New South Wales is also a hotspot for risk, from Newcastle’s harbour to the Central Coast and the metropolitan sprawl of Sydney’s eastern bays.³

Victoria’s coastal strip, including the Mornington Peninsula, Port Phillip, and Bellarine, faces progressively higher tides, groundwater intrusion, and shoreline retreat.³

Other high-risk zones span Perth’s suburbs, Adelaide’s Gulf St Vincent, and remote First Nations communities in the Top End and Torres Strait, where sea levels are rising even faster than the national average.³

Even cities far from the tropics, such as Hobart, are not exempt, as Antarctic melt accelerates impacts along southern coasts.

Consequences: The Human and Environmental Toll

Frequent inundation will displace families, disrupt major transport links, and undermine industries clustered at the shore, from tourism to shipping and fisheries.⁴

By 2050, the financial sector projects a significant drop in property values, up to 10% fall in vulnerable areas, compounding a rise in uninsurable homes.⁷

Vital ecological assets are also under siege: endangered wetlands, coastal bushland, and the irreplaceable Great Barrier Reef risk will collapse under accelerating marine change.³

Indigenous communities in places like the Torres Strait have already taken Australia to the United Nations over the loss of ancestral lands to rising water.³

Insurance generally excludes gradual sea-level encroachment, leaving many households exposed to costs above and beyond their means.⁷

Mitigation: Addressing the Root Cause

Sea-level rise is only partly avoidable. Decisions made this decade on fossil fuel use and emissions will set the ultimate scale of the crisis.⁶

If the global average temperature surpasses 2°C, sea-level rise could exceed 50 centimetres by century’s end and surge well past a metre by 2100 for high-emissions scenarios.²

This locks in catastrophic loss for many communities and further cost for the public and private sector.⁷

Australia’s emissions per capita remain among the world’s highest, giving the nation a critical role in both mitigation and adaptation.⁶

Accelerating clean energy transitions and phasing out coal and gas are the minimum requirements to avoid the worst outcomes.⁶

Adaptation: How Australia Must Respond

No amount of emissions reduction will eliminate sea-level rise this century, making adaptation policies vital.⁵

This includes updating coastal planning codes to reflect higher flood risks, increasing funding for managed retreat programs in at-risk suburbs, and building nature-based barriers like wetlands or oyster reefs where suitable.⁵

Key government documents highlight the importance of the Reef 2050 Plan, adaptation strategies for First Nations communities, and 'Preparing Australia' investments that strengthen disaster resilience.⁵

Eventually, some areas may need to be surrendered to the sea under planned retreat, with investment shifted to resettlement and transition support.⁴

Adapting to higher seas must also mean direct engagement with affected communities, local government leadership, and sustained funding for research and innovation in coastal defence.⁵

Integration of adaptation into every level of urban design, infrastructure development, and social policy is now a necessity, not a luxury.⁵

References

1. First climate risk assessment finds 1.5m Australians at risk from sea-level rise
2. Sea Level Rise in Australia: Risks and Adaptation
3. First climate risk assessment: Most-exposed regions by 2050
4. Climate change impacts on sea level rise – AdaptNSW
5. National Climate Risk Assessment Briefing – Climate Council
6. Emissions pathways and mitigation needs for Australian sea-level rise
7. Economic impacts and insurance gaps: Sea Level Rise in Australia

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Floods, Bushfires, Cyclones: How Climate Change In Australia Is Making Home Insurance Unaffordable - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Insurance premiums have surged due to climate change[1] Extreme weather events tripled insurance claim costs[2] Flooding is Australia's costliest climate peril[3] Many households face insurance affordability stress[4] High-risk areas risk becoming uninsurable[5] Policy action is needed to safeguard coverage[6]

Climate change is dramatically reshaping the insurance landscape across Australia, driving up costs in ways now impossible to ignore.

As extreme weather becomes more frequent and severe, insurers have responded by raising premiums, withdrawing coverage in high-risk zones, and indexing claims to rising repair costs.^[2]

Floods, bushfires, and cyclones have generated record-breaking damage, more than tripling annual insurance claims compared with past decades.^[3]

This has left thousands of Australian households, especially in vulnerable regions, struggling with unaffordable or unavailable insurance.^[4]

For many, insurance premiums now consume weeks of household income each year, with severe affordability stress and rising protection gaps.^[4]

Insurers warn that without major investment in adaptation and resilience, as much as 1 in 25 properties could become uninsurable within years.^[5]

The challenge is political, economic, and social: the cost of living and the stability of property markets now hinge on decisive climate policy and smarter risk management.^[6]

The stakes for both homeowners and the national economy are escalating, with insurers, government, and communities all seeking solutions.^[6]

Rising Premiums and Costs

Climate change has caused insurance premiums to rise far above the rate of inflation in every capital city, putting pressure on household budgets nationwide.^[1]

The average home insurance premium climbed by at least 14% between 2022 and 2023, with riskier regions facing increases of 66% since 2020.^[1]

Floods, fires, and storms triggered over $7 billion in claims in 2022 alone, almost doubling previous records.^[2]

Insurance losses from declared catastrophes now amount to 0.7% of GDP, compared to just 0.2% from 1995-2000.^[2]

Insurance Council data shows average annual claims from extreme weather more than doubled over five years, now exceeding $4.5 billion annually.^[2]

Rising repair and construction costs further exacerbate premiums for homes, workplaces, and businesses.^[2]

Insurer profits have not kept pace with premium growth, meaning rising claims and reinsurance costs are not simply absorbed.^[2]

This multi-layered pressure means insurance cost increases vastly outstrip the Consumer Price Index in every major city.^[1]

Extreme Weather: The Main Driver

Flooding is now the costliest natural disaster peril facing Australia, accounting for the majority of recent insurance payouts.^[3]

Data from the Insurance Council reveals 1.2 million properties face some level of flood risk, with about 230,000 properties enduring a 1-in-20 annual chance of inundation.^[3]

Bushfires, cyclones, hailstorms, and severe storms also contribute to rising insurance claims, impacting households across the nation.^[3]

The surge in extreme events has forced insurers to refine risk modelling, increasing premiums and reducing affordable coverage in disaster-prone regions.^[3]

Major individual events, such as the 2023 Christmas storms and ex-Tropical Cyclone Jasper, generated claims averaging tens of thousands of dollars per property.^[3]

The growing frequency and intensity of natural hazards directly reflect global warming trends, with impacts spread nationwide.^[3]

Policy experts say worsening extreme weather remains the single greatest threat to insurance affordability and accessibility.^[3]

Australia's climate crisis is now a lived experience for millions, not just a future risk.^[3]

Affordability Stress and Protection Gap

Nearly one in eight Australian households, about 1.25 million, experience “insurance affordability stress,” paying over four weeks gross income on annual premiums.^[4]

One in twenty households faces even greater hardship, spending more than seven weeks of annual income just to insure their homes.^[4]

Insurance costs vary sharply by geography, with northern regions and cyclone-exposed areas often paying double the premiums of southern states.^[4]

Insurers have started withdrawing coverage entirely from some high-risk flood and bushfire zones, leaving communities exposed.^[5]

This protection gap endangers household wealth, mortgage access, and property values, challenging the very foundation of asset security.^[5]

Industry data suggest 4% of Australian properties are high-risk and another 10% face abnormal insurance costs due to climate-related claims.^[5]

Climate experts say over 80% of homes in some suburbs may soon be uninsurable, with managed retreat and relocation becoming urgent topics.^[5]

Without market and policy reform, the protection gap could destabilise housing and financial systems both regionally and nationally.^[5]

Where To From Here?

Insurers and regulators emphasise that effective, multi-level policy action is essential to preserving affordable coverage as climate risks escalate.^[6]

Solutions highlighted include better land-use planning, stronger building codes, and public investment in resilience—such as improved flood defences and home strengthening programs.^[6]

Government intervention, like the $10 billion cyclone pool, has delivered modest impacts but requires ongoing review and calibration.^[6]

Insurers advocate transparent consumer information, incentivising private investment in household resilience, and public funding mechanisms for high-risk zones.^[6]

Adaptation, mitigation, and managed retreat are politically sensitive, but increasingly necessary as insurance withdrawal accelerates in climate-exposed areas.^[6]

Many experts warn that the traditional insurance model can no longer handle the nonlinear impacts of climate change.^[6]

The challenge is urgent and ongoing: how to provide fair, affordable, and sustainable protection in an era of climate volatility.^[6]

Policy, consumers, and insurers must work together to close the protection gap and build a more resilient future for all Australians.^[6]

References

1. Australia and NZ face home insurance crisis due to climate, Green Central Banking, 2025
2. Extreme weather costs triple in Australia as insurers face rising claims, Insurance Business Magazine, 2025
3. Insurers incurred $2.19bn in claims from extreme weather in 2023-24: ICA, Reinsurance News, 2024
4. Premium price: The impact of climate change on insurance costs, The Australia Institute, 2024
5. Scores of suburbs risk being priced out of cover, climate group warns, Insurance News, 2025
6. When Entire Regions Become Uninsurable, Future Proof, 2024

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