Australia Holds the Pen at COP31 as Coal and Gas Approvals Test Its Credibility - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia leads COP31 negotiations in Antalya
while approving new coal and gas projects at home

Key Points

Türkiye holds the COP31 presidency while Australia holds exclusive authority over the negotiations.[1] Türkiye’s environment minister, Murat Kurum, says Türkiye holds the final say at Antalya.[2] The partnership agreement sets consultation as the response to any difference between Türkiye and Australia.[3] The Pacific Resilience Facility, a Pacific-owned fund, holds about US$180 million in pledges against a US$500 million target.[4] Bowen said the planned cover decision could recognise a UN finding that a temporary breach of 1.5°C is inevitable.[5] More than 500 academics told the Prime Minister that expanding coal and gas at home undermines Australian leadership abroad.[6]

In October, a delegation visited Tuvalu’s Funafuti atoll to see how the nation strengthens coastal defences against rising seas. 

The visit opened the Pre-COP, a ministerial meeting that precedes the main summit. That landscape frames the stakes for Australia at COP31.^[7]

COP31 convenes in Antalya under a split presidency. Türkiye hosts and presides, while Australia leads the formal talks through Chris Bowen, the President of Negotiations. 

The arrangement places Pacific priorities and Australian coal and gas decisions under one spotlight.^[1]

The High-Stakes Diplomatic Tightrope

COP31 divides leadership between two governments. Türkiye hosts the summit and chairs the sessions where governments adopt decisions. 

Australia leads the negotiations, prepares draft texts and works with the UN climate secretariat on negotiating matters.^[1]

Ambiguity over final authority creates the first risk. Murat Kurum, Türkiye’s COP31 President, told journalists that Türkiye holds the final say in Antalya. Australia’s team points to Bowen’s Bonn speech describing a seamless partnership with one goal.^[2]

The global spotlight raises the cost of any gap between words and actions. More than 500 academics told the Prime Minister that expanding coal and gas at home undermines Australian leadership abroad. The letter, sent days before the summit, cites research ranking Australia among OECD nations for high per-person emissions.^[6]

Brokering consensus tests Australia’s drafting skill. Bowen and Kurum agreed a presidency-led cover decision, a summary text that avoids a lengthy political statement. Governments must still adopt it by consensus, which keeps every word negotiable.^[5]

The Split-Presidency Model

The modalities, the official terms of the partnership, let the COP31 President assign an Australian as President of Negotiations. That person also serves as COP Vice President and leads the negotiations for the conference’s duration. Türkiye hosts the talks in Antalya, and Kurum serves as COP31 President.^[2]

The agreement gives Bowen exclusive authority in relation to the negotiations, exercised in consultation with Türkiye. Australia prepares draft texts and works with the UN climate secretariat on negotiating matters. Türkiye chairs the session where governments decide whether to adopt the text.^[1]

The agreement addresses disputes through consultation. If the two governments differ, consultations continue until they resolve the difference to mutual satisfaction. Türkiye also selects the Australian representative for the role.^[3]

DiploFoundation summarises the model as a gavel and a pen. Türkiye holds the gavel, and Australia holds the pen. Bowen has said he and Kurum would bring down the final gavel together.^[1]

Pacific Neighbours and Existential Threats

The Pacific entered the Pre-COP with three priorities. The region pushed to keep 1.5°C alive, reform climate finance access and add ocean governance to the UN negotiations. The Taku Pakasoa Declaration, a political statement, closed the meeting, and its title means strength in unity in Tuvaluan.^[7]

Bowen noted that Tuvalu’s highest point stands just 1.5 metres above sea level. Kurum said US$1.5 billion for 1.5 degrees would save the Pacific. Fiji’s Minister for Environment and Climate Change, Lynda Tabuya, said the Pacific will hold COP31 to that target.^[4]

The Pacific Islands Forum represents 18 nations and territories. It seeks US$500 million for the Pacific Resilience Facility, its own fund, and Fiji pledged US$10 million at the Pre-COP. One speaker told the summit that recovery funding arrives as loans, debt and dense red tape.^[7]

UN human rights experts set a high bar for Australia’s leadership. They said a historically high-emitting country should show the highest ambition at home and abroad, notably fossil fuel phase-out. They also warned of foreseeable, widespread harm to health and food systems from fossil fuels across their life cycle.^[8]

Climate Finance and the 1.5°C Target

The Pacific Resilience Facility is a Pacific-owned fund that provides grants rather than loans. Countries avoid extra debt. The money goes to seawalls, clean water and home protection.^[4]

Pledges total about US$180 million against a US$500 million target for the end of 2026. Pacific Islands Forum Secretary-General Baron Waqa set out those figures. The facility’s long-term goal is US$1.5 billion, matching the Pacific’s COP31 demand.^[4]

Loss and damage finance covers climate harm beyond what adaptation can prevent. Lowy Institute analysis says pre-agreed triggers could release cash within days through bodies such as the Pacific Resilience Facility. It argues that faster disbursement, rather than a bigger fund, is the fix.^[9]

Overshoot describes global temperatures rising above 1.5°C before falling back. Bowen said the cover decision could recognise a UN finding that overshoot is inevitable but reversible. Whether that language yields enforceable pathways remains the open question in Antalya.^[5]

Domestic Fossil Fuel Contradictions

UN experts argue that global leadership requires matching action at home. They noted that Australia has approved over a dozen new coal mines, expansions and other fossil fuel projects since 2022. The Australian Human Rights Commission’s first climate report had urged a fossil fuel phase-out.^[8]

The 503 signatories wrote from universities and research institutes in every state and territory. They sought a binding timetable to phase out coal, gas and oil, and a ban on new fossil fuel projects. Signatories include board member Lesley Hughes, Bill Hare of Climate Analytics and climate scientist David Karoly.^[6]

The UN experts also questioned Australia’s reliance on carbon offsets, credits that polluters buy instead of cutting their own emissions. They said the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Act permits unlimited offset use to address excess emissions. They cited evidence that at least 75 per cent of Australian carbon credits fail to deliver real reductions.^[10]

The Albanese government defended its record in a formal response to the UN experts. It described its 2035 target as among the most ambitious in the world. It added that Australia is working to transition away from fossil fuels in its domestic energy system.^[10]

COP31 puts an untested governance model under scrutiny. Türkiye chairs and Australia drafts, so both governments share the credit and the blame. Clarity on those roles will emerge only through consultation and consistent conduct.

The Pacific needs fast grant finance and a credible route back to 1.5°C. Pledges so far cover just over one third of the Pacific Resilience Facility’s 2026 target. Frontline communities carry the cost of every delay.

Australia holds the pen while approving coal and gas at home. Academics and UN experts apply one test: consistency between domestic decisions and international leadership. Accountability depends on whether Canberra’s actions match the language it drafts in Antalya.

References

1. COP31: who holds the pen, who holds the gavel. DiploFoundation explains the division of roles, Bowen’s exclusive negotiating authority and the gavel and pen analogy.

2. Türkiye says it has “final decision” at COP31 despite Australia running negotiations. Climate Home News reports Kurum’s claim to the final say and the delegated negotiating functions in the modalities.

3. It’s official: Turkey will be boss of COP31 climate talks. Politico quotes the published deal text on consultation to resolve differences and on Türkiye assigning the Australian representative.

4. Tabuya: Pacific will hold COP31 to US$1.5b. The Fiji Sun records the Pacific Resilience Facility pledges, its grant model and the US$1.5 billion target.

5. Australia says COP31 co-presidency will work on a cover decision. Climate Home News details the planned presidency-led cover decision and Bowen’s comments on 1.5°C overshoot.

6. Australia cannot ‘credibly lead’ COP31 without reform. AAP reports the open letter from 503 academics calling for an end to new coal and gas approvals.

7. Pacific ‘Pre-COP’ draws attention to islands’ plight. Dialogue Earth covers the Funafuti visit, Pacific priorities, the Taku Pakasoa Declaration and Resilience Facility fundraising.

8. Australia’s global leadership must be underpinned by ambitious human rights-based climate action: UN experts. The UN human rights office publishes the Special Rapporteurs’ statement on Australia’s fossil fuel approvals and leadership role.

9. COP31: Rebuilding the Loss and Damage Fund for speed. The Lowy Institute argues that pre-agreed triggers and faster disbursement should shape loss and damage finance.

10. UN experts scrutinise Australia’s climate leadership days before COP31. The Point reports the UN experts’ concerns about carbon offsets and the Albanese government’s response.

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Faster Warming, Slower Action: Australia's Test Before COP31 - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Warming has accelerated and a temporary breach of 1.5°C is now inevitable

Key Points

Warming has averaged about 0.35°C per decade since 2015, against just under 0.2°C from 1970 to 2015.[1] The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says limiting warming to 1.5°C with limited overshoot is no longer possible. The best case peaks near 1.7°C to 1.8°C.[2] National pledges would cut emissions only 5 to 8 per cent by 2030, against the 18 per cent UNEP requires.[3] Returning below 1.5°C needs carbon removal at four times today's scale. Each extra year above the limit raises irreversible risks.[4][5] Australian projections reach a 48 per cent cut by 2035, short of the 62 to 70 per cent target.[6] Australia presides over COP31 negotiations as 503 academics demand an end to new coal and gas projects.[7]

This month, negotiators gather for the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Türkiye. Australia's Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen presides over the formal talks.^[7]

Two findings reshape the debate. 

Warming has accelerated, and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) now calls a temporary breach of 1.5°C unavoidable. 

Overshoot describes warming that exceeds 1.5°C and later returns below it.^[8]

A Faster Rate of Warming

Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Grant Foster tested five temperature datasets. 

They removed El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar variation, the natural fluctuations that mask long-term trends. 

Two statistical tests then found acceleration at above 98 per cent confidence in every dataset.^[9]

Over the past decade, warming has averaged about 0.35°C per decade. Between 1970 and 2015, the average stayed just under 0.2°C. The team reports the first statistically significant detection of acceleration in the warming trend.^[1]

If that rate persists, the long-term 1.5°C threshold arrives between 2026 and 2029. The Paris Agreement judges the limit across about 20 years, so 2024 alone fell short of a breach. Claudie Beaulieu, whose 2024 study found no detectable surge, warns the acceleration may prove temporary.^[9]

Scientists dispute the finding's strength. Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania sees a roughly constant warming rate. Zeke Hausfather calls the adjustment imprecise and points to falling sulfur dioxide pollution as the likeliest driver.^[9]

The End of the No-Overshoot Pathway

UNEP issued its Emissions Gap Report 2026, The Point of Return, on October 21. The report concludes that limiting warming to 1.5°C with limited overshoot is no longer possible. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) played a pivotal role in the modelling.^[2]

Global emissions reached 58.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025. That unit converts every greenhouse gas into carbon dioxide's warming effect. Emissions now sit about 80 per cent above the level that limited overshoot required by 2030.^[8]

The best remaining scenario peaks near 1.7°C to 1.8°C around mid-century. It then returns to 1.5°C by 2100 with a 50 per cent chance. Without urgent action, even that narrow path will quickly close.^[2]

UNEP says older pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assumed cuts from 2020 and have become outdated. Every five years of delay locks in another 0.1°C of warming. The task now is to minimise the size and scale of the overshoot.^[8]

The Arithmetic of Rapid Cuts

The lowest-overshoot pathway demands global cuts of 18 per cent by 2030 and 45 per cent by 2035. Cuts then reach 69 per cent by 2040. Each figure compares with 2025 emissions.^[2]

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the climate pledges each country lodges under the Paris Agreement, deliver far less. Full implementation cuts only 5 to 8 per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035. UNEP also says coal-fired electricity must fall at least 75 per cent by 2035 and effectively end by 2040.^[3]

Staying on the lowest-overshoot path needs global emissions to fall 5.7 per cent a year over the next decade. UNEP notes that pace outstrips the 5 per cent annual cut needed had action begun in 2019. A below-2°C pathway demands 11, 24 and 37 per cent cuts by 2030, 2035 and 2040.^[8]

Current policies point to 2.8°C of warming this century, and full NDC delivery still reaches 2.6°C. Adding every net-zero pledge lowers the figure only to 2.1°C. Renewable capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated since the Paris Agreement, which shows faster progress is possible.^[2]

Removal, Risk and Irreversible Loss

The lowest-overshoot route also needs carbon dioxide removal (CDR), pulling roughly 320 gigatonnes from the air this century. A gigatonne equals one billion tonnes, so that total matches about eight years of 2024 emissions. UNEP calls that task a huge effort.^[2]

Removal today totals about 2.2 gigatonnes a year, almost all from forests. Researchers say it must reach 8.8 gigatonnes by 2050. Novel technologies supply under 0.1 per cent of current removals.^[4]

Forests compete with agriculture for land and risk releasing stored carbon through fire and disturbance. Ocean modelling shows upper-ocean temperatures would stay flat for at least 30 to 40 years after surface temperatures fall. Researchers also flag large uncertainty over how well novel technologies would work at scale.^[4]

UNEP's September report, Limiting Overshoot, links every extra year above 1.5°C to rising risk. Hazards include faster sea-level rise, coral reef collapse, more extreme heat and wildfire, and ice sheet tipping points. Returning below 1.5°C would leave some of that damage in place.^[5]

Australia's Accountability Gap

The federal government's November 2025 projections show Australia has cut emissions 28.5 per cent since 2005. They reach 42 per cent by 2030, one point short of the legislated 43 per cent target. Emissions fell 2.2 per cent in the latest annual figures.^[6]

For 2035, the projections reach 48 per cent against a target range of 62 to 70 per cent. Minister Bowen told parliament that a gap between projections and a decade-away target is normal. The Climate Change Authority recommended that range in September 2025, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese accepted it.^[6]

On November 3, 503 Australian academics wrote to the Prime Minister. They argued that Australia lacks credibility to lead abroad while expanding coal and gas at home. Signatories include Climate Change Authority board member Lesley Hughes and climate scientist David Karoly.^[7]

The letter seeks a ban on new fossil fuel projects, including those in the Hunter Valley and Beetaloo. Federal approval for the Hunter Valley Operations extensions remains pending. Anne Poelina, an Indigenous knowledge researcher, wants the Prime Minister to hear frontline communities opposing a Kimberley fracking proposal.^[7]

The evidence converges on one conclusion. Warming has quickened, the 1.5°C limit will give way, and the task now is to shrink and shorten the overshoot.

UNEP has published the arithmetic of cuts and removals. Australian projections still fall well short of the 2035 target, while new coal and gas approvals await federal decisions. Each approval shapes the height and length of the peak.

Accountability starts at COP31, where Australia presides over the negotiations. Credible leadership needs policies that match the targets, honest reporting of gaps and a hearing for frontline communities. First Nations and frontline voices belong at the centre of that reckoning.

References

1. Significant acceleration of global warming since 2015. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research release on the Geophysical Research Letters study by Foster and Rahmstorf.

2. UNEP Emissions Gap report 2026. Summary from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, lead modeller of the report, including removal needs and warming scenarios.

3. New UNEP report lays out emission cuts needed for return to 1.5°C. UNEP press release on the Emissions Gap Report 2026, covering required cuts, pledge shortfalls and temperature projections.

4. Experts: Why carbon removal needs a 'major scale up' to return warming to 1.5C. Carbon Brief report from the Milan conference on the scale, limits and policy needs of carbon dioxide removal.

5. The UN Environment Programme warns world will overshoot 1.5°C, but return remains possible. Mail & Guardian summary of UNEP's Limiting Overshoot report and its warnings on tipping points and lasting damage.

6. Australia projected to fall short of its 2035 climate target. The Daily Aus account of the federal emissions projections released in November 2025 against the 2030 and 2035 targets.

7. Australia cannot 'credibly lead' COP31 without reform. AAP report on the open letter from 503 academics to the Prime Minister days before COP31.

8. UNEP: Opportunity has 'been lost' to meet 1.5C warming limit without 'overshoot'. Carbon Brief's detailed coverage of the report's pathways, annual reduction rate and cost of delay.

9. Pace of global warming has nearly doubled since 2015, reveals study. Carbon Brief analysis of the study's method, five datasets, breach window and expert disagreement.

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Australia's Food Crops Face a Genetic Race Against Climate Change - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia's changing climate is threatening crop productivity and 
accelerating the search for genetically resilient fruit and vegetable varieties

Key Points

Climate change will increase selection pressures favouring heat-tolerant and drought-resistant crop varieties. Genetic change will depend primarily on breeding and selection. [1] Rising carbon dioxide concentrations threaten the nutritional composition of several food crops, particularly their mineral and protein content. [3] Warmer winters threaten winter-chill requirements in apples, while extreme heat damages fruit development and quality. [4] Floods, droughts and heatwaves threaten production reliability, increasing pressure on growers and household food budgets. [6] Supermarkets and distribution networks face growing pressure to diversify suppliers and accommodate variable harvest quality. [6] Australia's National Adaptation Plan and mandatory climate reporting provide frameworks for managing agricultural risks. [7][8]

At first light, an Australian orchardist walks between rows of fruit trees, inspecting the developing crop. 

Some branches carry healthy fruit while others show signs of heat stress and uneven development. 

Each growing season brings fresh decisions about irrigation, varieties and the financial viability of the orchard.

Across Australia's agricultural regions, rising temperatures, changing rainfall and increasingly damaging extremes are altering the conditions under which food crops grow. 

Researchers and growers face an increasingly urgent task: identifying varieties capable of maintaining reliable production under conditions that increasingly challenge established agricultural practices. ^[1]

Climate Change and Crop Genetics

By 2030, Australia's principal fruit and vegetable crops will face stronger environmental selection pressures. Heat tolerance, efficient water use, resistance to disease and reliable flowering will become increasingly valuable breeding characteristics.

 These pressures affect bananas, apples, citrus, strawberries, watermelons, leafy vegetables, potatoes, tomatoes, carrots, onions, mushrooms, pumpkins, peas and beans. ^[1]

Genetic variation describes inherited differences between individual plants and crop varieties. Breeders identify useful variations through conventional crossing, field trials and molecular techniques. 

Genomic selection uses information across an organism's DNA to estimate which breeding candidates carry desirable characteristics. Australian research institutions already apply these approaches to improve heat and drought tolerance in agricultural crops. ^[2]

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide creates another challenge for crop quality. A 2025 meta-analysis examined 43 food crops and 29,524 observation pairs. Researchers identified widespread changes in plant nutrient composition, with zinc showing particularly substantial reductions. 

The study demonstrates that increased plant growth can coexist with declining nutritional value. ^[3]

These changes involve plant physiology and nutrient allocation rather than an automatic rewriting of crop genomes. Genetic adaptation depends on inherited variation, reproduction and deliberate breeding decisions. By 2030, breeders may introduce improved varieties, but no reliable national forecast quantifies genetic changes across every Australian horticultural crop. ^[2][3]

Orchard and Farm Productivity

Australian agriculture faces increasingly difficult combinations of heat, rainfall variability and water scarcity. CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology project continued warming, more extremely hot days and declining cool-season rainfall across much of southern Australia. These changes threaten growing conditions and increase pressure on irrigation supplies. ^[1]

Apple production illustrates the genetic and commercial consequences. Deciduous fruit trees require winter chilling, a period of sufficiently cool temperatures that supports subsequent flowering. Warmer winters can reduce accumulated chill, disrupt flowering and weaken fruit production. Growers may consequently favour lower-chill cultivars suited to changing regional conditions. ^[4]

Citrus faces different pressures. Higher temperatures and changing humidity can affect flowering, fruit setting, fruit size and irrigation requirements. NSW produces approximately 52 per cent of Australia's oranges. Its climate vulnerability assessments examine future suitability across important horticultural commodities and growing regions. ^[5]

Extreme heat, flash flooding and prolonged drought also threaten vegetables. Heat can interrupt pollination, reduce fruit setting and accelerate moisture loss. Excessive rainfall can damage roots, increase fungal diseases and prevent harvesting. Changing pest and weed distributions create additional demands for crop protection and farm management. ^[1][5]

Food Production and Consumer Security

Agricultural losses increasingly connect climate extremes with household food costs. Australia's experience during 2022 demonstrated the vulnerability of fresh produce supplies. Repeated flooding damaged major eastern production regions, destroyed crops and disrupted transport infrastructure. Vegetable shortages contributed to substantial increases in retail prices. ^[6]

A Senate inquiry reported that fruit and vegetable prices increased by an average of 16 per cent during the year to late 2022. Cyclone Larry had previously demonstrated similar vulnerabilities through extensive damage to Queensland's banana industry. Such events expose the financial consequences of concentrated production and disrupted distribution. ^[6]

Supply disruptions carry nutritional consequences beyond supermarket prices. Lower-income households face greater difficulty maintaining affordable access to fresh vegetables and fruit when prices rise. Reduced availability of nutrient-rich produce can compound existing dietary inequalities. Rising carbon dioxide also introduces potential nutritional losses within otherwise successful harvests. ^[3][6]

Australia's biosecurity requirements also shape its ability to respond to domestic shortages through imports. The Department of Agriculture requires permitted produce to satisfy strict pest, disease and food-safety conditions. These safeguards protect agricultural industries, although alternative overseas supplies depend on approved commodities and exporting countries. ^[9]

Supermarkets and Agricultural Supply Chains

Climate-related production instability creates commercial risks throughout Australia's supermarket supply chains. Retailers depend on predictable volumes, consistent quality and reliable transport. Heatwaves, floods and droughts can disrupt those expectations simultaneously across several growing regions. 

Buyers consequently face stronger incentives to diversify sourcing arrangements and improve supply monitoring. ^[6]

Commercial appearance standards create another vulnerability. Weather-stressed fruit and vegetables can develop irregular shapes, blemishes and variable sizes while remaining suitable for consumption. Retailers that accept a wider range of appearances can reduce unnecessary rejection and food waste. Such purchasing changes could provide growers with additional market opportunities.

Shorter distribution routes and regional procurement can also improve resilience. Australia's agricultural supply chains depend on transport corridors, storage facilities, processing infrastructure and distribution centres. Flood damage to roads and bridges can interrupt several stages simultaneously. 

Alternative transport arrangements and geographically diversified suppliers reduce exposure to individual disruptions. ^[6]

Supermarket contracts will therefore face increasing pressure to accommodate changing harvest conditions. Flexible purchasing arrangements could support farmers confronting unpredictable production volumes. However, smaller producers require sufficient bargaining power and financial security to participate. 

Transparent contracts and meaningful risk-sharing arrangements remain important safeguards for agricultural businesses.

Australian Government and Regulatory Responsibilities

Australia's 2025 National Adaptation Plan establishes a national framework for responding to significant physical climate risks. It identifies primary industries and food as one of seven priority systems. The plan emphasises evidence-based action, collaboration and protection for communities facing disproportionate climate impacts. ^[7]

The government also identifies agricultural adaptation priorities involving improved water efficiency, technological innovation, research and crop diversification. Its Regional Investment Corporation provides concessional finance for eligible agricultural businesses. The National Adaptation Plan also outlines additional support for climate resilience and agricultural productivity. ^[7]

Mandatory climate-related financial disclosure introduces another regulatory responsibility. Australia's corporate sustainability reporting regime requires eligible companies to disclose material climate risks, opportunities, emissions and governance arrangements. 

ASIC oversees compliance with the Corporations Act and applicable climate reporting standards. These requirements can improve visibility across major agricultural and grocery businesses. ^[8]

However, reporting requirements alone cannot protect Australia's food production system. Governments must connect climate assessments with practical agricultural investment, research funding and regional infrastructure planning. 

First Nations knowledge and community experience also deserve meaningful participation. Accountability requires measurable adaptation outcomes and transparent evaluation of public expenditure. ^[7]

By 2030, Australia's agricultural landscape will face greater pressure to adapt to rising temperatures, changing rainfall and increasingly damaging extremes. Genetic diversity and improved breeding will help determine which crops remain productive across changing growing regions.

The consequences extend beyond farms. Crop quality, nutritional security, supermarket prices and household food affordability all depend on reliable agricultural production. Farmers, researchers, retailers and governments share responsibility for managing these interconnected risks.

Australia now has national adaptation and corporate disclosure frameworks. Their effectiveness will depend on sustained investment, transparent accountability and practical support for growers. 

Protecting future food supplies requires action across the entire production system, from genetic research and healthy soils to supermarket purchasing policies.

References

1. CSIRO, Climate Projections for Australia. National climate projections covering temperature, rainfall, drought and extreme weather conditions.

2. University of Sydney, Plant Breeding Institute. Research into genomic selection, crop diversity and improved heat and drought tolerance in Australian agricultural breeding programs.

3. Ter Haar, van Bodegom and Scherer, CO2 Rise Directly Impairs Crop Nutritional Quality, Global Change Biology, 2025. A large meta-analysis examining elevated carbon dioxide and nutritional changes across 43 food crops.

4. Horticulture Industry Network, Apple and Pear Production in a Changing Climate. Australian research examining winter chill, flowering, fruit quality and adaptation strategies.

5. NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Horticulture and Viticulture Climate Vulnerability Assessment. Regional assessments of climate suitability for important horticultural commodities.

6. Australian Senate, Cost of Living Inquiry, Chapter 6: Food and Groceries. Parliamentary examination of food price increases and climate-related disruptions to agricultural production and distribution.

7. Australian Government, National Adaptation Plan, 2025. National framework outlining agricultural adaptation, climate resilience and government responsibilities.

8. Australian Securities and Investments Commission, What Should Your Sustainability Report Contain?. Regulatory guidance covering mandatory climate-related financial disclosures and corporate reporting obligations.

9. Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Importing Fresh Produce for Commercial Purposes. Australian biosecurity and import requirements governing commercially imported fruit and vegetables.

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Australia's Children Face a Lifetime of Heat, a Major Health Report Finds - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Children across Australia and New Zealand already carry
a rising climate health burden that will last their lifetimes

Key Points

The eighth MJA–Lancet Countdown Oceania report finds children already suffer climate harm and face a lifetime of exposure.[1] Australian infants endured 4.6 heatwave days a year over 2016 to 2025, 66 per cent above baseline.[2] Half of 16,230 surveyed Australians aged 14 to 19 report climate worry or sadness. One in seven says it harms daily life.[1] A new indicator tracks time on Country, using Indigenous-governed data in this report for the first time.[3] Heat-related deaths carry estimated costs of US$1.49 billion a year, more than double early-century costs.[1] A children's health bill failed to become law, yet the UN climate conference COP31 offers Australia an opening.[4]

Anjali Sharma took the federal Environment Minister to court as a teenager over a coal mine expansion. 

She now leads the Climate Duty of Care campaign and cites a children's wellbeing bill that failed to pass. 

A duty of care is a legal obligation to take reasonable care to avoid harming others.^[2]

The 2026 MJA–Lancet Countdown Oceania report tracks 28 indicators across five health and climate domains. 

Forty-one experts from 18 institutions wrote the eighth annual edition. 

Domains span hazards, adaptation, mitigation, economics and political engagement.^[3]

Report overview

The report concludes that children already bear climate impacts and face a lifetime of exposure to come. 

Heatwave exposure for infants and older adults has risen substantially across both countries over the past decade. 

A heatwave is a spell of unusually high temperatures that lasts several days.^[1]

Infants in Australia endured an average of 4.6 heatwave days a year across 2016 to 2025. That figure sits 66 per cent above the 1986 to 2005 baseline. Parents for Climate chief executive Nic Seton describes that as two-thirds more heatwave days than a generation ago.^[2]

Lead author Paul Beggs ranks climate change as the century's largest health threat. He says children and young people already feel the physical and mental effects. Rising heat also limits safe outdoor activity, lowers participation and raises heat illness during exercise.^[5]

Australia holds the role of President of Negotiations at COP31, the 31st United Nations climate conference, in November. The report treats that role as a chance to place health at the centre of international climate action. Authors urge stronger commitments to cut emissions and to adapt.^[5]

Health hazards and impacts

Climate change makes hot spells more frequent and longer, which raises heatwave days for infants and older adults. An urban heat island, where built surfaces trap heat, adds to the load. Associate Professor Aditya Vyas reports Western Sydney heatwaves run 10 degrees hotter than the affluent east.^[2]

Attribution science measures how much climate change adds to a specific hazard. Across 2021 to 2025, 65 per cent of Australian heatwave days trace to climate change. Climate Councillor Andrew Watkins notes Port Augusta became the southernmost place on Earth to record 50 degrees last summer.^[2]

Countdown data show very high or extreme fire danger exposure reached 33.6 days per person across 2013 to 2022. Anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder and depression rank among the most reported mental health problems after bushfires. The 2019 to 2020 fires caused about 450 deaths through injury and air pollution.^[6][7]

Drought ranks among Australia's most important climate extremes, with substantial effects on physical and mental health. A Curtin University study of 35,309 girls and young women aged 13 to 24 spanned 14 countries. In those low- and middle-income countries, prolonged extreme drought carried 21 per cent higher odds of sexual violence.^[6][8]

Mental health and wellbeing

The survey reached 16,230 Australians aged 14 to 19. Half reported worry or sadness about climate change and its threat to people. The authors say the threat to physical and mental health continues to grow.^[1]

About one in seven respondents, or 13.5 per cent, said climate feelings negatively affect their daily life. Separately, 49 per cent said they worry that climate change threatens people and the planet. ECOMIND co-founder Georgia Monaghan argues that government inaction, as well as climate itself, fuels young people's distress.^[2]

Today's children face decades of exposure ahead, a point that gives the report its title. The authors say climate change shapes child health through heat, severe weather, worsening environments and youth mental health strain. Climate education, advocacy and collective action can build agency, coping and hope among children, the report adds.^[4]

The survey adds a direct measure of how young people feel, which exposure statistics alone leave unmeasured. That measure sits beside indicators on hazards, adaptation, mitigation, economics and political engagement.^[1]

Adaptation and equity

New Zealand published its Health National Adaptation Plan 2024 to 2027 in October 2024. A health national adaptation plan sets how a health system prepares for climate impacts. The report says the plan lays foundations for resilience and recognises environmental and social determinants of health.^[1]

Climate services supply tailored climate data and forecasts to decision makers, including health authorities. The report rates provision to the health sector in Australia and New Zealand as advanced.^[1]

For the first time, the report tracks Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander time on Country with Indigenous-governed data. Almost 60 per cent of adults spent time on Country between 2021 and 2025. Dr Bronwyn Wilkes, a Gundungurra woman, says an estimated 14.3 per cent wanted that time but lacked access.^[3]

Weather-related disasters displaced 32,177 people in Australia in 2024, including 25,000 through flooding in Queensland. A 2024 Deloitte study for UNICEF Australia counts over 1.4 million children and young people facing disasters annually. Associate Professor Aditya Vyas calls GP clinics and emergency departments the first line of defence in disasters.^[2]

Mitigation, economics and action

Heat-related mortality carries estimated costs averaging US$1.49 billion a year across 2021 to 2025. Inflation-adjusted, that sum more than doubles the cost at the start of the century. A net carbon price weighs pricing against fuel subsidies, and Australia's stood at minus AU$27.80 per tonne in 2024.^[1][2]

Australian healthcare-related greenhouse gas emissions generally declined from 2016 to 2023, in both total and per capita terms. Spikes around 2018 and a modest rise from 2022 to 2023 interrupt the trend. Globally, health-care emissions rose 25.5 per cent since 2016, so Australia diverges from the worldwide pattern.^[4]

Cutting emissions also delivers health co-benefits, a domain the report tracks directly. This edition shifts from electric vehicle uptake to indicators on walking and cycling. Globally, cleaner energy cut indoor air pollution deaths by an estimated 400,000 in 2023 versus 2016.^[4]

The Climate Change Amendment (Duty of Care and Intergenerational Climate Equity) Bill 2025 failed to become law. It sought to amend the Climate Change Act 2022, which legislates national emissions targets, so decision-makers weigh children's health. The report counts it among important lost opportunities, and two UN experts now question coal and gas approvals.^[2]

The 2026 MJA–Lancet Countdown Oceania report shows children carrying climate harm today and facing decades more. Heatwaves, bushfire smoke, drought and distress converge on young Australians, while heat deaths already cost US$1.49 billion annually.

A children's duty of care bill failed to pass, while a negative net carbon price effectively subsidises fossil fuels. Accountability rests with the federal decision-makers who set targets, approvals and subsidies.

COP31 offers Australia a platform to put health at the centre of negotiations. The evidence supports faster emissions cuts, stronger adaptation and child-centred policy before the next summer. Each season of delay adds to the lifetime exposure already facing today's children.

References

1. The 2026 Oceania Report of the MJA–Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change . This peer-reviewed abstract supplies the headline findings on heatwaves, youth distress, costs and adaptation.

2. Kids already paying for climate pollution as UN puts Australia's coal and gas approvals under scrutiny . This Climate Media Centre release lists the report's key findings, expert comments and the UN allegation letter.

3. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples' access to Country now a climate and health measure . The Australian National University explains the first Indigenous-governed indicator and its Mayi Kuwayu Study data.

4. Global climate health stocktake brings grim news and prescriptions for urgent action . Croakey Health Media summarises the Oceania findings alongside the global Lancet Countdown, including emissions and active transport indicators.

5. Children bear the brunt of climate change, warns new report . Macquarie University announces the report and quotes lead author Professor Paul Beggs on heat exposure and COP31.

6. The 2023 Report of the MJA–Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: Sustainability Needed in Australia's Health Care Sector . The earlier edition documents bushfire danger exposure, mental health effects and drought impacts.

7. Eight years of the MJA–Lancet Countdown: the evidence on climate and health is clear . Editor-in-Chief Virginia Barbour recounts the 2020 Countdown figures on bushfire deaths and air pollution.

8. Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study . This Curtin University peer-reviewed study links prolonged extreme drought to higher odds of sexual violence among 35,309 girls.

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Clean Grid, Gas Gap: Western Australia's Climate Contradictions - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Western Australia has set a 75 per cent renewable target
while methane and drought pressures intensify

Key Points

Western Australia set a 75 per cent renewable target for its main grid by 2030-31.[1] Renewables supplied 39 per cent of SWIS electricity in 2024-25, about triple the 2016 share.[2] Government-cited modelling projects an 89 per cent rise in industrial energy prices by 2032 without new initiatives.[1] Satellites recorded methane above Chevron's Gorgon plant averaging 7.8 tonnes an hour in late August.[3] Conservation Council of WA says state emissions have risen 19 per cent since 2005.[4] South West July rainfall reached 37.2 per cent of average. The Alkimos desalination plant targets a 2028 start.[5][6]

A Murdoch University researcher watched two Bunbury dolphins, Smiley and Star, strand within minutes this winter. 

Parks and Wildlife Service staff carried both animals to deeper water, where they later foraged normally. 

Population ecologist Dr Krista Nicholson says a drying climate dries estuaries, and shifting water levels may raise those risks.^[7]

Three pressures now converge in Western Australia: rapid grid change, a methane controversy and a drier, fire-prone landscape. 

Each tests state institutions in a different way. 

The evidence below shows where governance has kept pace and where gaps remain.

A New Grid Target

On 27 October, Western Australia set a formal target of 75 per cent renewable electricity by 2030-31. 

The target covers the South West Interconnected System (SWIS), the grid serving Perth and much of the South West. 

Energy Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson calls the goal a statement of intent that aims to attract private investment.^[1]

Renewables supplied 39 per cent of SWIS electricity use in 2024-25, around three times the 2016 share. The new target nearly doubles that share within five years.^[2][1]

By the end of the decade, the government has vowed to close its last state-owned coal generators at Collie. The one privately owned coal generator is also likely to close. State-owned Synergy and Water Corporation have written some of the purchase agreements underpinning new developments.^[1]

In 2012, an energy minister opened Greenough River, the nation's first large-scale solar farm, and vowed to stop there. Western Australia now accounts for half of the nation's 10 wind projects past financial close, when lenders commit funds. Construction began this month on the 470 MW Parron Maam Marang project north of Perth.^[1]

Prices, Gas and Industry

The state government cites modelling supported by Boston Consulting Group. It found industrial energy prices could rise 89 per cent by 2032 without new initiatives. The government presents the target as an affordability measure as well as a climate measure.^[1]

A Made in WA Energy Affordability Investment Program offers manufacturers low-interest loans of up to A$15 million. Firms can spend the money on solar and battery systems and equipment upgrades. Officials say the equipment upgrades let manufacturers use cheaper energy.^[1]

Sanderson calls renewables backed by storage and gas the cheapest, most reliable mix. Gas therefore keeps a firming role, supplying power when wind and solar output falls. Climate Energy Finance head Tim Buckley urges iron ore miners to follow Fortescue and decarbonise their own power.^[1]

Unions and investors back the target. UnionsWA Secretary Rikki Hendon wants secure, well-paid renewable jobs for workers who currently depend on coal and gas. Clean Energy Investor Group chief Richie Merzian calls Western Australia the third most attractive state for investment.^[1]

Methane Above Barrow Island

Independent satellite monitoring detected persistent methane clouds above Chevron's Gorgon liquefied natural gas plant on Barrow Island. The Tanager-1 satellite recorded the plumes on five consecutive passes since November last year. Observations ranged from about one to eight tonnes of methane an hour.^[3]

The latest pass, in late August, averaged about 7.8 tonnes of methane an hour. Methane is a greenhouse gas the United Nations rates 80 times more harmful than carbon dioxide. The ABC equates that rate to burning more than 110,000 kilograms of coal an hour.^[3]

The latest reading far exceeds a super-emitter event under US Environmental Protection Agency guidelines. The United Nations warned Chevron, which says satellite data carries a wide range of uncertainty. Chevron also says it is engaging with the UN Environment Programme.^[3]

A UN Environment Programme spokesperson says Chevron and the Australian Government have yet to provide formal feedback. Data Desk researcher Louis Goddard says the consistent readings suggest an operational issue near the plant's acid gas removal units. Dr Bruce Norris of the University of Western Australia estimates a few thousand tonnes may have leaked over a year.^[3]

Targets and Accountability

Conservation Council of WA director Matt Roberts says state emissions have risen 19 per cent since 2005. He adds that Western Australia remains the only state lacking an interim emissions reduction target. Roberts made those remarks as the Global Citizen NOW summit opened in Perth.^[4]

The reports reveal a jurisdictional gap. Methane sits outside Gorgon's federal approval, so the National Environmental Protection Agency referred ABC enquiries to state regulators. The WA Government concedes uncertainty about its role, while its environment department investigates.^[3]

Chevron received a similar methane notification in July last year. Carbon capture and storage, designed to bury emissions underground, has drastically underperformed at the project since 2016. Chevron also reported unknown amounts of gas seeping to Barrow Island's surface last year.^[3]

Australia helps fund the system that flagged the plumes. Carbon Mapper operates the satellite within the UN's International Methane Emissions Observatory, which lists Australia as a key donor. UNEP will update its public methane data once feedback arrives.^[3]

Dry Country, Fire and Heat

Rainfall across the South West averaged 42.05 millimetres in July, just 37.2 per cent of the long-term average. That ranked as the second-driest July on record, behind 2012. August then ran 62 per cent above average statewide.^[5][8]

Perth's A$2.8 billion Alkimos Seawater Desalination Plant reached a marine milestone in September. Tunnel boring machines completed two of Australia's longest undersea tunnels, which carry seawater in and brine out. The plant targets operation in 2028, supplying an initial 50 billion litres of drinking water yearly.^[6]

The Government activated harvest water bombers early to meet a heightened fire risk across the Wheatbelt. A two-aircraft strike team now operates from Narrogin, with two more starting in Geraldton and Esperance on 1 November. Last season, harvest fires reached Emergency Warning level, threatening lives and property.^[9]

Doctors for the Environment's WA branch reports more than 7000 heat-related hospital admissions and 300 deaths in a decade. The group urges the Cook Government to stop approving gas projects and cut emissions. The doctors warn the state health system will struggle with more heatwave patients.^[10]

Western Australia has set a clear direction for its main electricity grid. A 75 per cent renewable target, paired with coal closures, gives investors and workers a measurable goal. Industry loans aim to cushion manufacturers from projected price rises.

Accountability remains less settled. Gorgon's methane plumes, a regulatory gap and a missing interim target leave gas emissions without a clear owner. Chevron cites uncertainty in satellite data, which makes closer measurement essential.

Dry winters, harvest fires and heat illness show the cost of delay. The next test is whether the state matches its grid ambition with enforceable limits on methane and economy-wide emissions.

References

1. State sets 75 pct renewable energy target as it transitions away from coal by end of decade, RenewEconomy, 27 October 2026. Reports the target, the Collie coal exit, the Boston Consulting Group modelling, the manufacturer loans and stakeholder reactions.

2. Western Australia transmission plan to unlock 2.6 GW of renewable energy, pv magazine Australia, 19 September 2025. Records that renewables supplied 39 per cent of SWIS electricity use in 2024-25, about triple the 2016 share.

3. UN sends warning to Chevron after plumes of methane found over Gorgon project, ABC News, 23 October 2026. Documents the satellite detections, the United Nations alert, the regulatory responses and expert assessments.

4. Civil society urges WA Government to confront WA's role in climate crisis during Global Citizen NOW summit, Conservation Council of WA, October 2026. Supplies the 19 per cent emissions rise since 2005 and the absence of an interim target.

5. Wet start to August after 2nd-driest July on record in southwest WA, Weatherzone, August 2026. Quantifies the South West's July rainfall against the long-term average and the 2012 record.

6. Alkimos Desalination Plant marks marine milestone, Water Corporation, 1 September 2026. Confirms the completed undersea tunnels and the 2028 operating target.

7. Double dolphin stranding highlights growing risks in WA estuaries, Murdoch University, 7 August 2026. Describes the Bunbury strandings and Dr Krista Nicholson's assessment of estuary risks.

8. Monthly Climate Summary for Western Australia, August 2026, Bureau of Meteorology, 1 September 2026. Gives statewide August rainfall as 62 per cent above the 1961-1990 average.

9. Aircraft Deployed Early to Protect WA Grain Growers, Mirage News (WA Government release), 27 October 2026. Details the Narrogin strike team, the 1 November deployments and last season's Emergency Warning fires.

10. Doctors call for climate change action, less new gas, AAP. Reports Doctors for the Environment WA's heat hospitalisation and death figures and its call to halt new gas approvals.

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From Flood to Fire: South Australia's Climate Whiplash - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

South Australia faces a hotter and drier summer
after its wettest winter in almost five decades

Key Points

The Country Fire Service opened the Fire Danger Season on 15 October in three northern districts, earlier than last year.[1] September's mean maximum temperature reached 27.5°C, 3.86°C above the 1961–1990 average and the third-warmest September since 1910.[2] South Australia recorded its sixth-wettest winter on record and its wettest since 1978.[3] The World Meteorological Organization forecasts record Pacific sea-surface temperatures from October to December, with the El Niño peaking around December.[4] Salinity and water levels most strongly shape Coorong phytoplankton, which sets the risk of harmful algal blooms.[5] Governments committed $102.5 million to an Algal Bloom Summer Plan that funds shellfish reefs and a dedicated research office.[6]

Hail and damaging winds swept across Adelaide on Sunday 11 October, toppling trees onto cars and blocking roads. 

Several storms crossed the state that afternoon and mostly cleared by 9 pm. Fallen trees accounted for most calls to the State Emergency Service.^[7]

That storm followed the wettest winter in South Australia since 1978 and a record-warm September in Adelaide. Fire authorities have also advanced the Fire Danger Season across the north. 

This investigation examines fire, water, coastal and algal threats converging on a state that spent winter sodden.

Fire and Heat

The Country Fire Service (CFS) opened the 2026–27 Fire Danger Season on 15 October in three northern districts. 

Flinders, North East Pastoral and North West Pastoral start earlier than last year because of elevated fuel loads. Vegetation curing, the drying of grass until it burns readily, adds to the risk.^[1]

Eastern Eyre and West Coast again start on 15 October, and Lower Eyre Peninsula follows on 15 November. Riverland, Murraylands, Lower South East and Upper South East begin on 1 November. A permit is required for most burning during the season.^[1][8]

Adelaide (West Terrace) recorded its highest September mean temperature on record. Across the state, the mean maximum reached 27.5°C, which is 3.86°C above the 1961–1990 average. That ranked third-warmest for any September since 1910, while rainfall finished 33% below average.^[2]

Emergency Leaders for Climate Action put the annual cost of bushfires at about $6 billion. Single major events, such as Black Summer, cost almost $30 billion. About 5.6 million households, roughly half the nation, face bushfire exposure.^[9]

Drought and Water Security

El Niño is a warming of tropical Pacific surface waters that shifts rainfall and temperature patterns across Australia. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts record sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific from October to December. The event should peak around December.^[4]

El Niño raises the likelihood of hotter, drier conditions across much of southern Australia. Other climate drivers shape local outcomes, as this wet winter inside an El Niño year shows. The swing from soaked ground to dry spring heightens fire risk.

South Australia sits at the downstream end of the Murray-Darling Basin, where upstream decisions shape river flows. The Basin Plan is the national framework that limits water extraction and returns water to the environment. The state government's May 2026 submission to the Basin Plan review insists on full recovery against every target.^[10]

The submission points to incomplete water recovery in the southern Basin. Incomplete recovery leaves downstream communities and ecosystems with less margin as El Niño intensifies. The review outcome will show whether recovery targets match a hotter climate.^[10]

Coorong and Algal Blooms

The Coorong lies on Ngarrindjeri Country at the mouth of the River Murray. Phytoplankton, the microscopic organisms that drift in its water, anchor the food web. Pipis, mussels, insects and small fish all eat them.^[5]

A Flinders University-led study found salinity and water levels most strongly shape Coorong phytoplankton. Climate-driven shifts in freshwater flows therefore reorder which species dominate. Salinity, the concentration of dissolved salt, swings sharply between drought and flood.^[5]

Harmful algal blooms follow different pathways. Drought-driven, high-salinity conditions raise the risk of dinoflagellate blooms, a group of single-celled plankton. High-nutrient, low-salinity conditions favour cyanobacteria, the blue-green algae.^[5]

The state and federal governments announced a $102.5 million Algal Bloom Summer Plan. It funds large-scale and community shellfish reef restoration and trials of bloom-management methods in controlled waterways. A new Office for Algal Bloom Research will undertake long-term studies of bloom events.^[6]

Coasts and Storms

Climate Ready Coasts is the state program that improves coastal management and accelerates coastal hazard adaptation planning. A coastal hazard is any process, such as erosion or storm surge, that threatens shoreline property and ecosystems. Planning of this kind sets protection priorities before storms and erosion force the decision.^[6]

Higher seas raise the baseline for storm surge, so the same storm reaches further inland. Erosion removes sand from beaches that buffer coastal suburbs. Both pressures build slowly and then arrive in single events.

Around four in five State Emergency Service calls on Sunday 11 October involved fallen trees. Trees blocked roads and fell onto vehicles across Adelaide. Damage spread across metropolitan Adelaide rather than the coast alone.^[7]

South Australia's 2025 Transport Strategy includes actions to weigh climate impacts in key transport decisions. The strategy also aims to strengthen transport resilience against major weather events. Storm-blocked roads show where that aim meets daily travel.^[6]

Adaptation and Policy

The state's Climate Change Resilience and Adaptation Actions outline government-led steps to prepare for climate impacts. The actions support efforts across all levels of government, business and the community. The document covers coasts, transport and algal bloom response, among other areas.^[6]

The 2024 Statewide Climate Change Risk and Opportunity Assessment will inform a review and update of those actions. That sequencing puts evidence ahead of revised commitments. Updated actions should reflect the latest evidence on heat, rainfall and sea level.^[6]

The state describes the actions as only a portion of broader efforts across governments, business and communities. That framing leaves the public without a single measure of total delivery. Independent tracking would close that gap.^[6]

Several decisions will shape the response to this summer's risks. The Basin Plan review, the adaptation actions update and algal research funding will test whether governance matches the risk. Frontline communities, including Ngarrindjeri people on the Coorong, carry the consequences of delay.

South Australia enters summer with a wet winter's growth drying under early heat. Fire authorities advanced the season, yet fuel and weather leave a narrow margin. The early declaration shows agencies reading the same evidence that scientists publish.

Water, coastal and algal risks compound the fire threat. The Basin Plan review, Coorong research and the algal bloom plan each depend on governments delivering their commitments. Delay in any one area increases pressure on the others.

Accountability now rests on published milestones, transparent funding and measurable outcomes. Bureau of Meteorology data and the state's own risk assessment supply the benchmarks. Residents deserve to see which agency owns each action and by when.

References

1. CFS urges preparedness as early start to Fire Danger Season declared. The SA Country Fire Service announces earlier 2026–27 season starts in northern districts, citing fuel loads and curing.

2. Monthly Climate Summary for South Australia: September 2026. The Bureau of Meteorology reports temperature and rainfall rankings and records for the state in September.

3. Australia in Winter 2026: Seasonal Summary. The Bureau of Meteorology ranks South Australia's winter rainfall as the sixth-wettest on record and the wettest since 1978.

4. Sea-surface temperatures reflect strengthening El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts record Pacific sea-surface temperatures and a December El Niño peak.

5. Shifts in flow and salinity shape phytoplankton communities in the Coorong. The CLLMM Research Centre summarises how salinity and water levels shape plankton and harmful algal bloom risk.

6. Responding to climate change risk and opportunity: South Australia's adaptation actions. The Department for Environment and Water outlines state adaptation actions, including the Algal Bloom Summer Plan and Climate Ready Coasts.

7. Damaging winds, severe storm cause damage and trees to fall in Adelaide. ABC News reports hail, damaging winds and fallen trees across Adelaide on 11 October.

8. CFS declares Fire Danger Season for South East, Murraylands and Riverland. The SA Country Fire Service confirms 1 November start dates for four further districts.

9. Supercharged fire seasons cost Australia $6b annually as El Niño summer looms. ABC News reports Emergency Leaders for Climate Action modelling of national bushfire costs and household exposure.

10. South Australian Government Submission to the Murray-Darling Basin Authority's Basin Plan Review. The state government sets out its May 2026 position on water recovery and Basin Plan delivery.

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