Q&A: What health issues are linked to climate change in Australia, and which populations are most vulnerable? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Extreme heat, bushfires, and floods are now the leading climate-linked threats to health. [1] Respiratory problems and heart disease spikes have been recorded after major climate disasters. [3] Climate change spreads mosquito-borne and exotic diseases into new areas. [9] Young people, elderly, Indigenous Australians, those in poverty or with chronic conditions are most at risk. [5] Urgent action is needed to modernise healthcare, adapt communities, and reduce emissions. [2]

Australia faces a growing public health crisis as climate change intensifies heatwaves, worsens air quality, spreads new diseases, and leaves increasing numbers of people shaken by disaster and stress.

Rising temperatures and extreme weather events are already leading to more heat-related and respiratory illnesses, with lasting consequences for mental health.​

The most at-risk groups include older adults, children, Indigenous Australians, low-income households, and those with pre-existing medical conditions.​

Case studies since 2020 reveal sharp increases in hospital visits during heatwaves and bushfires, and scientific data show urgent adaptation and healthcare reforms are needed.​

Tackling these health risks demands rapid action across all sectors to build resilience, support vulnerable communities, and cut greenhouse gas emissions.​

Extreme Heat and Heat-related Illnesses

Australia has warmed by over 1.5°C since 1910, with heatwaves becoming longer, more frequent, and more severe.^[4]

Heat kills more Australians than any other natural disaster, and at least 49,000 years of healthy life are lost annually to cardiovascular disease triggered by hot weather.^[6]

Recent modelling shows the number of deaths associated with heat-exacerbated heart disease could double or triple by 2050 if global warming trends persist.^[6]

Children, older adults, outdoor workers, and people with chronic medical issues face particular danger during heatwaves.^[5]

The “urban heat island” effect amplifies risk in major cities, where nights often fail to cool down and air pollution worsens.^[5]

Respiratory Conditions and Air Quality

Climate change drives more frequent and intense bushfires, producing smoke that chokes cities for weeks.^[3]

During the 2019–2020 “Black Summer” bushfires, an estimated 417 excess deaths and over 3,000 cardiovascular-related hospital admissions were linked to smoke exposure.^[3]

Asthma and hay fever attacks also spike, owing to increased pollen release during hotter, longer springs and bushfire smoke.^[7]

People with asthma, lung disease, heart conditions, and children are most susceptible.^[5]

Mental Health Impacts

Extreme heat and disasters take a mounting toll on Australians’ mental wellbeing.^[8]

Research finds nearly half of the mental and behavioural disorder burden by 2050 could stem from higher temperatures alone.^[8]

Young people are particularly vulnerable, especially those exposed to climate disasters or who already experience financial hardship.^[11]

Post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety rise in disaster-hit areas, while many report a sense of climate-related distress and loss.^[12]

Vector-borne and Infectious Diseases

Rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns allow disease-carrying mosquitoes and exotic viruses to thrive further south and for longer periods.^[9]

Recent outbreaks of Japanese encephalitis, which caused several deaths in 2022, underline growing risks linked to changing bird migration and mosquito ranges.^[9]

Experts warn other diseases, such as those spread by bats or other insects, may follow as climate disruptions intensify.^[9]

Disproportionate Impact on Vulnerable Populations

Older adults, children, people with disabilities, pregnant women, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, and those living in poverty or rural and remote areas are at the highest risk.^[5]

Communities with fewer resources, such as limited cooling, inadequate housing, or less access to medical care, often suffer far greater health impacts during and after disasters.^[10]

References

1. Review Health risks of climate change in Australia
2. National Health and Climate Strategy
3. Climate change, environmental extremes, and human health in Australia
4. Australia's changing climate
5. Climate impacts on our health and wellbeing | AdaptNSW
6. Extreme heat increases heart disease burden | Newsroom
7. Airborne pollen and respiratory allergies: Case Study
8. Extreme heat poses threat to mental health | Newsroom
9. Threat of exotic vector-borne diseases worsening with climate change, scientists say
10. Climate Change Resilience (ACOSS)
11. 6 in 10 young Aussies worry about climate change
12. Climate Trauma: Report on Mental Health Impacts

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Australians: Here is Climate Change Action We All Can Take - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Australians of all ages can take climate action suited to their stage of life[1] Practical steps include clean energy, sustainable transport, ethical investment, and civic advocacy[2] Community and intergenerational collaboration amplify impact and resilience[3]

All Australians can act on climate change in ways that fit our lives and values.

Climate change affects everyone, but the way we respond can depend on our stage of life, resources, and influence.

From students to retirees, Australians can act together to reduce emissions, protect the environment, and strengthen community resilience.

Students: Learning, Leading, and Inspiring

Young Australians are already at the forefront of climate activism and education.

Students can push for climate literacy in schools, join sustainability clubs, and participate in youth climate movements.[1]

They can encourage their schools to install solar panels, switch to renewable electricity providers, and promote waste reduction programs.[2]

Even simple changes such as walking, cycling, or using public transport to get to school reduce emissions and set powerful examples for others.[3]

Young Adults: Choosing Sustainable Lifestyles

For Australians in their 20s and 30s, lifestyle choices can make a big impact.

Opting for low-carbon diets, avoiding fast fashion, and minimising car use are effective ways to shrink personal footprints.[4]

Renters can choose energy-efficient appliances and ask landlords about insulation and renewable energy options.[5]

Supporting ethical banks and super funds that divest from fossil fuels will channel money toward clean industries and sustainable growth.[6]

Parents and Families: Building Habits and Hope

Parents hold unique power to influence future generations through their choices and conversations.

Teaching children about energy use, biodiversity, and climate science builds awareness and action.[7]

Families can adopt low-waste lifestyles, grow food in home or community gardens, and invest in home efficiency upgrades.[8]

Collective actions, like joining local environmental groups or advocating for school solar programs, strengthen communities while lowering emissions.[9]

Homeowners: Cutting Energy and Costs

Homeowners have opportunities to reduce emissions through energy upgrades and smart design.

Installing rooftop solar, battery storage, and efficient heat pumps can slash household emissions by up to 70 per cent.[10]

Upgrading insulation, draught-proofing, and LED lighting delivers immediate savings while improving comfort.[11]

Rebates and incentives through programs like the Federal Home Energy Upgrade Fund make these improvements more accessible.[12]

Workers and Business Owners: Driving Change in the Economy

Australia’s workforce can help accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Workers can push employers to adopt sustainability targets, switch to renewable power, and reduce waste.[13]

Small businesses can cut costs and attract customers by adopting green certifications or carbon-neutral practices.[14]

Choosing suppliers with strong environmental standards magnifies the impact across supply chains.[15]

Community Members: Acting Locally

Neighbourhood and community initiatives can scale up climate action rapidly.

Participating in local sustainability groups or tree-planting events builds resilience and solidarity.[16]

Advocating for better public transport, bike lanes, and local renewable projects ensures equitable and long-term benefits.[17]

Community energy cooperatives, like Hepburn Wind in Victoria, show how citizens can own and profit from clean energy.[18]

Retirees: Legacy and Mentorship

Older Australians can combine wisdom and financial influence to help shape a sustainable legacy.

Retirees can install energy-efficient systems, support local conservation efforts, and advocate for climate-aware policy.[19]

Investing retirement savings in ethical funds and mentoring younger activists amplifies impact across generations.[20]

Many retirees also volunteer with Landcare or community gardens, helping restore ecosystems and community spirit.[21]

Policy Engagement: Voices That Matter

Individual action gains strength when paired with civic participation.

Australians of all ages can write to MPs, attend town meetings, and vote for policies supporting renewable energy and environmental protection.[22]

Grassroots advocacy has repeatedly influenced national energy policy and helped secure stronger emissions targets.[23]

Democracy and climate action are deeply linked, and every voice adds weight to the call for change.[24]

References

1. Climate Council – Climate Change Education in Australian Schools
2. Solar Citizens – School Solar Programs
3. VicRoads – Sustainable Transport Initiatives
4. United Nations – ActNow: Sustainable Food Choices
5. Australian Government – Energy Rebates for Renters
6. Market Forces – Compare Banks and Super Funds
7. CSIRO – Education for Sustainability
8. NSW EPA – Sustainable Home and Garden
9. Community Power Agency – Local Energy Initiatives
10. Clean Energy Council – Home Solar and Battery Guide
11. Australian Government – Energy Efficient Home Design
12. Energy.gov.au – Home Energy Upgrade Fund
13. Climate Active – Carbon Neutral Certification
14. Business.gov.au – Sustainable Business Practices
15. Sustainability Victoria – Business Resources
16. Clean Up Australia – Volunteer Programs
17. Department of Infrastructure – Sustainable Transport
18. Hepburn Wind – Community Energy Project
19. Climate Council – Climate Action Guide
20. Responsible Investment Association Australasia – Ethical Investing
21. Landcare Australia – Volunteer
22. Parliament of Australia – Contact Your MP
23. Australian Conservation Foundation – Campaigns and Advocacy
24. GetUp – Climate Justice Campaign

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Australia Braces for a Summer of Climate Extremes - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Above-average temperatures forecast across much of Australia.[1] High fire danger warnings in southern/eastern states.[2] Flooding risk persists for eastern regions.[4] Insurance losses due to extreme weather among world’s highest.[3] Community and government adaptation crucial for resilience.[5]

The coming Australian summer is forecast to bring above-average temperatures, worrying fire weather, and a complex mix of heavy rain and dry spells in different regions.^[1]

Communities across eastern and southern Australia should brace for hotter days and heightened risks, especially in fire-prone areas, while selected eastern regions see an increased chance of flooding.^[2]

Economists, ecologists, and sociologists warn of far-reaching social, economic, and ecological disruptions, with insurance claims and government expenditure on disaster response forecast to rise sharply.^[3]

Australian culture faces another season of adapting: heatwaves will change community events, disrupt festivals and sports, and place new stress on vulnerable groups.^[4]

Policymakers are being urged to ramp up climate mitigation strategies, including emergency planning, green infrastructure, and community education.^[5]

Temperature and Heatwaves: Forecasts and Risks

Daytime temperatures are forecast to be above average for most of the continent outside parts of coastal New South Wales.^[1]

Maximum temperatures are likely to surpass historical averages by 1-4°C in many areas, with Victoria and Tasmania facing the highest chances of unusual heat events.^[1]

Multiple days above 35°C will be common in the southern and eastern interiors, while humid heatwaves may afflict Darwin and northern regions.^[2]

Heatwaves are expected to last longer than in previous years, putting pressure on vulnerable Australians, especially elderly populations in major cities and remote communities.^[4]

Public health warnings have already been issued, urging people to monitor for dehydration, heat stress, and respiratory problems.^[2]

Fire Weather: Escalating Dangers

Fire danger warnings have been declared early, especially in southern and eastern Australia, where warm and dry conditions will align with strong winds.^[2]

The Bureau of Meteorology’s forecast points to heightened fire risks for the Greater Sydney region and much of Queensland, with bans and emergency response teams already on standby.^[2]

While some parts of eastern Australia may see more rain, brief dry spells and intensifying heat can rapidly elevate bushfire danger even in normally wet regions.^[1]

Climate projections suggest bushfires could become more intense and erratic, with fire seasons starting earlier and lasting longer over the coming years.^[4]

Rainfall Patterns: A Mixed Picture

Rainfall outlooks remain complex, with the possibility of above-average rain for much of the southeast and northeast—as much as 60-80% above median in some regions—while other areas have equal chances of dry or wet conditions.^[1]

Heavy storms and tropical weather are anticipated to peak in January to March, which could bring flash flooding and disruptions to transport and agriculture.^[4]

Recent shifts in the Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña climate patterns influence forecasts, with uncertainty over how ocean temperatures may amplify extremes.^[1]

Social and Economic Impacts

Extreme heat and volatile weather will place additional strain on health systems and emergency response services, especially in regional communities.^[2]

Rising insurance costs, home repairs, and crop losses represent significant economic threats, with Australia ranking among the world’s highest for per capita weather-related insurance claims.^[3]

Remote and Indigenous communities face unique cultural and social disruptions, including lost land and interrupted traditional events due to floods or fires.^[4]

Ecological and Cultural Impacts

Warming conditions endanger native wildlife, with heat stress, shifting migration patterns, and habitat loss threatening struggling species such as koalas, bandicoots, and numerous birds.^[4]

Coral bleaching risk rises as elevated sea surface temperatures persist along the coast, particularly following the record-breaking ocean heat now observed in the region.^[1]

Australian cultural life—festivals, sports, and family gatherings—will adapt in response to extreme heat, with cooling spaces, altered schedules, and new health safety measures becoming the norm.^[4]

Political Actions and Required Mitigation

Governments and local councils are encouraged to intensify efforts to protect communities from climate impacts this summer.^[5]

Important strategies include strengthening emergency management, updating fire response plans, building green infrastructure, and increasing community engagement on heat awareness.^[2]

Individual actions—staying informed through official sources, preparing emergency kits, supporting vulnerable neighbours—will be crucial in boosting local resilience.^[5]

Conclusion: Adapting for a Safer Future

Australia faces a challenging summer marked by rising heat, serious fire risks, uncertain rainfall, and evolving climate realities.^[1]

Through collective action and government leadership, there is potential to buffer communities and ecosystems against the worst impacts, and lay the groundwork for long-term climate resilience.^[5]

References

1. Rainfall and temperature long-range forecasts – Bureau of Meteorology
2. BOM forecast shows hot weather and high fire danger to southern and eastern Australia
3. New data shows Australia's extreme weather losses among highest in the world
4. Surprise La Niña hints at another wet and stormy Australian summer
5. Heatwaves - AdaptNSW - NSW Government

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Queenstown Tasmania 2050: A Mining Town Faces the Heat of Climate Change - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Queenstown projected to warm by 1.6°C to 2.9°C by 2050[1] Increased frequency and severity of heatwaves predicted[2] Fire danger season expected to lengthen and intensify[5] Winter rainfall up, summer rainfall down after 2050[6] Policies by 2025 focused on adaptation, but stronger action required[3]

Climate Change Shifting Queenstown’s Future

Queenstown, Tasmania, is bracing for a climate-altered future shaped by more extreme weather, social adaptation, and shifting economic prospects. 

Rising temperatures, intensifying heatwaves, and an evolving rainfall pattern are forecast to transform life in this rugged mining town by the middle of the century.^[1]

Scientific models indicate that Queenstown and its surrounds will experience hotter days, longer fire danger seasons, and more pronounced changes in when and how rain falls.^[2]

The local government’s climate response, shaped by recent statewide plans, is attempting to shore up resilience and reduce emissions.

However, experts warn that more dramatic action is needed to protect livelihoods and landscapes.^[3]

From economic risks to cultural shifts, the impacts of climate change will touch every aspect of Queenstown’s community.^[4]

Rising Temperatures and Heatwaves

By 2050, Queenstown is expected to be warmer by at least 1.6°C under a low-emissions scenario and up to 2.9°C if global emissions track current trends.^[1]

This warming will result in hotter summers and milder winters, with average daily minimum temperatures rising faster than daily maximums.^[1]

Heatwaves—extended periods of high temperatures—will be more frequent and last longer, raising health risks for older residents and children.^[2]

Tasmanian models suggest that days over 35°C could double in some regions, impacting outdoor work, sports, and tourism.^[2]

Shifting Rainfall Patterns

Climate forecasts for Queenstown and Tasmania’s west show total annual rainfall may not change dramatically, but its distribution will.^[1]

Winter rainfall is projected to increase significantly, while summer rainfall is set to decline after 2050.^[6]

This seasonal imbalance will challenge water resource management and could affect local agriculture and wilderness ecosystems.^[7]

Less summer rain and higher evaporation rates could exacerbate periods of drought and stress the region’s forests and rivers.^[1]

Intensifying Fire Weather

Queenstown’s fire danger season, already a concern in remote western Tasmania, is forecast to lengthen and intensify.^[5]

Spring and summer will see more days classified as “high fire danger,” driven by warmer temperatures, lower humidity, and shifting wind patterns.^[5]

This raises the likelihood of total fire bans and creates operational challenges for local emergency services.^[5]

Ecologically, bushfires pose a threat to World Heritage areas and endangered species, altering habitats and community structure.^[5]

Socially, repeated evacuations and property risk may increase community anxiety and stress.^[5]

Economic and Social Impacts

Queenstown’s economy, which is strongly linked to mining, small-scale agriculture, and eco-tourism, faces emerging strain from climate change.^[8]

Reduced summer rainfall and more frequent fires could disrupt tourism, damage infrastructure, and affect mining operations reliant on water.^[7]

Higher temperatures and changing rainfall will force local farms to adapt crops and livestock, requiring new technology and investment.^[7]

Socially, increased heatwaves and emergencies may strain local health systems, demand new community support structures, and challenge vulnerable residents.^[5]

Cultural and Ecological Change

Ecologically, Queenstown’s forests and rivers, already recovering from mining’s legacy, are vulnerable to temperature-driven stress and altered rainfall.^[1]

More frequent fires and invasions of new pests and weeds could dramatically change local flora and fauna.^[5]

Cultural heritage, including Indigenous connections to land, faces disruption as traditional practices must adapt to changing conditions.^[9]

Community events, outdoor recreation, and tourism will also need to adjust to more unpredictable and extreme weather.^[4]

2025 Policy Action vs. 2050 Needs

The Tasmanian government’s 2023–25 Climate Change Action Plan prioritises resilience, emissions reduction, research, and adaptation grants.^[3]

Measures include emissions cuts, support for clean transport, and updating regional climate models.^[10]

Yet, climate experts argue these steps must be rapidly scaled up to match the projections for Queenstown by 2050, with deep emission cuts, stronger community preparedness, infrastructure upgrades, and safeguarding natural assets becoming essential.^[11]

Without more ambitious action, projected impacts may overwhelm available resources and threaten long-term sustainability.^[3]

Conclusion: Future at a Crossroads

By 2050, climate change will reshape Queenstown’s weather, the economy, landscape, and social fabric.^[1]

The community’s ability to adapt through strengthened policies, grassroots action, and innovation will determine whether challenges become opportunities.^[4]

A focused, collective push to cut emissions and boost resilience will help Queenstown weather the coming storm.^[3]

The decisions made today set the trajectory for the next generation.^[4]
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References

1. Climate Futures for Tasmania General Climate Impacts
2. How hot will your neighbourhood be by 2050
3. Tasmania's Climate Change Action Plan 2023–25
4. Managing Tasmania's climate risks and opportunities
5. Fire danger in Tasmania: the next 100 years
6. Projected climate change impacts in Tasmania
7. Climate Change Action Plan
8. Review of climate impact change work undertaken, research gaps and opportunities in the Tasmanian context
9. Will the weather be warmer in Tasmania in 20 years?
10. Impact of climate change: Tasmanian agriculture
11. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: What does it mean for Tasmania?

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Links

• Tasmanian Climate Futures Summary – General Climate Impacts (DPAC)
• How Hot Will Your Neighbourhood Be by 2050? (Climate Council)
• Parliamentary Report – Climate Change Adaptation in Australia (APH)
• Tasmanian Climate Action Plan 2023–25 (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• Tasmanian Government Climate Risk Assessment Response (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• Projected Climate Impacts for Tasmania (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• Overview of Climate Impacts in Tasmania (Department of Natural Resources and Environment)
• Review of Climate Impact Research and Gaps in Tasmania (University of Tasmania)
• Will the Weather Be Warmer in Tasmania in 20 Years? (Curious Climate Tasmania)
• Tasmanian Climate Action Plan Overview (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – What It Means for Tasmania (Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes)
• Climate Futures for Tasmania – General Climate Impacts Full Report (UTAS)
• Queenstown Weather Forecast (Bureau of Meteorology)
• Tasmanian Climate Science Overview (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• Tasmania Fire Danger Rating (Tasmanian Fire Service)
• Tasmanian Climate Change Act Review 2024–25 (Department of State Growth)
• Scientific Study: Palaeoclimate Insights into Southern Ocean Warming (ScienceDirect)
• Break O’Day Council Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2024 (NTARC)
• Tasmanian Government Climate Change Information Portal (Recreation, Fitness & Sport Tasmania)
• State Climate Statement – Tasmania (Climate Change in Australia)

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‘Planetary health diet’ could save 40,000 deaths a day, landmark report finds - The Guardian

The Guardian - Damian Carrington Environment editor

Diet allows modest meat consumption and would
also slash food-related climate emissions by half,
says report by 70 leading experts from 35 countries

An example of what the planetary health diet might look like in Vietnam.
Photograph: supplied

Executive Summary

The 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems presents new evidence-based insights on nutrition and human health, within safe and just planetary boundaries.  New to this Commission are updates to the planetary health diet, measurement and assessment of the impact food systems have in driving transgressions of planetary boundaries, an exploration of multi-dimensional and underlying issues of food justice, new research and extensive modelling insights, and transformative and action-based recommendations and roadmaps. The Commission lays the foundations for food systems to take a central role in the post-SDG era, presenting global, regional, local, and individual means to achieve that while creating and retaining a just social foundation, that protects human health and minimises harms to planetary health.

Adoption of a plant-rich “planetary health diet” could prevent 40,000 early deaths a day across the world, according to a landmark report.

The diet – which allows moderate meat consumption – and related measures would also slash the food-related emissions driving global heating by half by 2050. 

Today, a third of greenhouse gas emissions come from the global food system and taming the climate crisis is impossible without changing how the world eats, the researchers said.  

Food production is also the biggest cause of the destruction of wildlife and forests and the pollution of water.

The planetary health diet (PHD) sets out how the world can simultaneously improve the health of people and the planet, and provide enough food for an expected global population of 9.6 billion people by 2050.

The diet is flexible, allowing it to be adapted to local tastes, and can include some animal products or be vegetarian or vegan. 

However, all versions advise eating more vegetables, fruits, nuts, legumes and whole grains than most people in the world currently eat. In many places, today’s diets are unhealthy and unsustainable due to too much meat, milk and cheese, animal fats and sugar.

People in the US and Canada eat more than seven times the PHD’s recommended amount of red meat, while it is five times more in Europe and Latin America, and four times more in China. However, in some regions where people’s diets are heavily reliant on starchy foods, such as sub-Saharan Africa, a small increase in chicken, dairy and eggs would be beneficial to health, the report found.

Planetary health diet v current diets
Adult diets in 2020 v planetary health recommendation, daily per capita intake in grammes

Guardian graphic.
Source: The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable and just food systems.
*Other fats, oils and sugars

Severe inequalities in the food system must also be ended to achieve healthy and sustainable diets, the researchers said. The wealthiest 30% of the world’s population generates more than 70% of food-related environmental damage, it found. 

Furthermore, 2.8 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet and 1 billion are undernourished, despite enough food being produced globally. The food system is also failing the 1 billion people living with obesity, the report said.

The report recommends shifting taxes to make unhealthy food more costly and healthy food cheaper, regulating the advertising of unhealthy food and using warning labels, and the shifting of today’s massive agricultural subsidies to healthier and more sustainable foods.

The report recommends shifting taxes to make healthy food cheaper. Photograph: Wu Hao/EPA

“What we put on our plates can save millions of lives, cut billions of tonnes of emissions, halt the loss of biodiversity, and create a fairer food system,” said Prof Johan Rockström, who co-chaired the EAT-Lancet Commission that produced the report. “The evidence is undeniable: transforming food systems is not only possible, it’s essential to securing a safe, just, and sustainable future for all.”

“This is not a deprivation diet,” said Prof Walter Willett of the Harvard TH Chan school of public health, and another commission co-chair. “This is something that could be delicious, aspirational and healthy. It also allows for cultural diversity and individual preferences, providing flexibility.”

The report, published in the Lancet, was produced by 70 leading experts from 35 countries and six continents. It builds on the 2019 report that introduced the PHD, but includes new evidence of the health benefits of the diet.

“We have been able to look at this diet in relation to health outcomes such as total mortality, diabetes, respiratory diseases, heart disease, stroke, etc and we found very strong inverse relationships” said Willett. The diet was also linked to reduced cancer and neurodegenerative diseases.

Overall, the researchers estimated global adoption of the PHD could prevent 15m early deaths a year in adults. The estimate did not include the impact of the diet reducing obesity, meaning it is probably an underestimate.

The PHD recommends plant-rich, flexible diets, including:

• Fruits and vegetables – at least five portions a day
• Whole grains – three to four portions a day
• Nuts – one portion per day
• Legumes (beans, peas, lentils) – one portion per day
• Dairy – one serving of milk, yoghurt or cheese per day
• Eggs – three to four a week
• Chicken – two portions a week
• Fish – two portions a week
• Red meat – one portion a week

Dr Marco Springmann from UCL in the UK and an author of the report said the differences between the PHD and current diets vary: “What needs to be reduced differs a lot. In low income countries, it’s the starchy foods and grains, whereas in high income countries it is animal-sourced foods, sugar, saturated fats, and dairy. It’s insane how much dairy is consumed in Europe and North America.”

The data underlying the report is available online and can be used to tailor different planetary health diets for the tastes of people in specific countries and of different ages. The website also shows how much the diets reduce deaths, improve nutrition, and cut environmental impacts. 

“Hopefully this will lead to more science-based policymaking,” said Springmann.

‘What needs to be reduced differs a lot [from country to country].
In low income countries, it’s the starchy foods and grains.’
Photograph: eFesenko/Alamy xxxx

The PHD is better than current average diets for many nutrients, including fatty acids, fibre, folate, magnesium and zinc. Adequate iron and vitamin B12 could be provided by green leafy vegetables, fermented soy foods and algae, the researchers said.

Moving diets towards the PHD could be achieved by helping consumers make better everyday choices, said Prof Line Gordon, director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, for example by shifting taxes to make healthy foods cheaper, and putting warning labels on unhealthy foods. “But it is not just about getting prices lower, it’s also about bringing purchasing power up so that people can afford a healthier diet” she said.

“Our recommendations are grounded in scientific evidence and real-world experience,” Gordon said. “Changes are already under way, from school meal programmes to regenerative agriculture and food waste reduction initiatives.” England banned price promotions on unhealthy foods on Wednesday and will ban advertising such foods online.

The report estimates that food-related ill health and environmental damage costs society about $15tn a year. It said investments to transform the food system would cost $200bn to $500bn a year, but save $5tn.

Alongside a shift in diets, the report calls for other changes to the food system, including cutting the loss and waste of food, greener farming practices, and decent working conditions, as a third of food workers earn below living wages.

The launch of the PHD in 2019 led to attacks from meat industry interests. Rockström said: “The [new report] is a landmark achievement. It is a state-of-the-art scientific assessment that quantifies healthy diets for all human beings in the world and the environmental boundaries all food systems need to meet to stay safe. So we have a really rigorous foundation for our [results]. We are ready to meet that assault.”

Links

• The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems
• A global and just future for food Line Gordon: developing the future of food systems
• Fabrice DeClerck: serving sustainability for planet, plate, and people
• Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems
• EAT–Lancet Commission 2.0: securing a just transition to healthy, environmentally sustainable diets for all 
• Shakuntala Thilsted: shifting our approach to food systems

Planetary Health Check 2025: Seven of Nine Boundaries Crossed, Humanity Nears Irreversible Tipping Points - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached [1] Climate change, biodiversity, and ocean acidification at dangerous levels [2] Societal and economic risks rising sharply [3] Justice and equity highlighted in new frameworks [4] Urgent call for systemic change and policy action [5]

Earth’s Alarming Health Check

This year’s “2025 Planetary Health Check” rings the loudest alarm yet: seven out of nine planetary boundaries have been breached, with trends pointing toward further deterioration and mounting danger [1].

Produced by the Planetary Boundaries Science Lab and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the report finds Earth’s essential life-support systems—climate, oceans, biodiversity, forests, and water—are all at elevated risk, endangering human wellbeing worldwide [2].

Notably, ocean acidification joins climate change and ecosystem collapse among the breached boundaries, threatening food security, economies, and cultural traditions [3].

As the report warns, humanity's continued growth and consumption are pushing the planet closer to irreversible tipping points, with consequences for society, global stability, and justice [4].

Researchers urge urgent, systemic reform—way beyond lifestyle tweaks—calling for governments and businesses to embed planetary health into every decision [5].

What are Planetary Boundaries?

Planetary boundaries are the “safe limits” for nine key Earth processes that help keep our environment stable, resilient, and capable of supporting life [1].

They include climate change, biodiversity, land use, freshwater use, nutrient cycles, novel entities (like chemicals), atmospheric aerosols, the ozone layer, and ocean acidification [2].

Breach one, and risk to planetary and human health rises; breach several, and the possibility of abrupt, irreversible harm grows sharply [1].

The framework helps societies measure where changes must happen to restore safety and prosperity now and for future generations [5].

Earth’s Vital Signs: Key Data from 2025

The latest assessment reveals that seven boundaries have been transgressed: climate change, ecosystem integrity, land system change, freshwater use, biogeochemical cycles (nitrogen and phosphorus), introduction of novel entities (plastic, chemicals), and, for the first time, ocean acidification [1].

CO₂ in the atmosphere now stands at 423 ppm, well above the safe boundary of 350 ppm, with warming accelerating and no signs of stabilisation [2].

Global forest cover has dropped to about 59%, far below the 75% considered safe for stable climate and ecosystems [3].

Human disruptions affect over 22% of global land area’s water flow and soil moisture—double preindustrial values—threatening drinking water supplies and agriculture [2].

Ocean acidity has crossed the official safety threshold; impacts are already being felt in key coastal and polar regions, endangering marine life and millions whose livelihoods depend on it [2].

Social and Economic Impacts

Australia and countries throughout the world are witnessing clearer links between the planetary crisis and social risks: weather-related disasters are growing deadlier as destabilised systems drive more frequent heatwaves, floods, and droughts—particularly hitting vulnerable communities hardest [2].

The rise in extreme events not only harms families and communities but also disrupts economies, raising costs and threatening infrastructure [5].

The fragmentation and decline of forests, reef collapse, polluted rivers, and erratic rainfall threaten food security and rural livelihoods across Australia and Asia-Pacific neighbours [3].

Meanwhile, ocean and atmospheric instability drive global trade disruptions and food price volatility, deepening the risk of poverty and inequalities [4].

Political and Cultural Dimensions

The report highlights emerging political responses: more cities, nations, and businesses are now using planetary boundary measurements to guide policies—Amsterdam and New Zealand among early adopters [5].

The concept of “safe and just” boundaries, advanced by the Earth Commission, seeks to protect both people and ecosystems while upholding fundamental rights and equity across nations and generations [4].

Cultural impacts are profound: the loss of environments alters traditions and identities built around forests, oceans, farming, and wildlife [3].

Researchers urge governments to embed planetary health checks into national laws, planning, education, and business disclosures, reflecting a global transition to evidence-based stewardship of Earth’s resources [5].

Extreme Weather, Tipping Points, and Urgent Solutions

2024 saw the first year with global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C; heatwaves and disasters are accelerating in frequency and impact, intensified by degraded land, declining biodiversity, and freshwater instability [2].

Scientists identify looming tipping points—Amazon rainforest collapse, ocean current changes, ice sheet loss—that could set off cascades of “runaway” changes affecting billions of lives [1].

The report also introduces new tracking tools and collaborative networks designed to turn scientific findings into practical solutions—aiming for a “Planetary Mission Control Centre” to guide global recovery [2].

Urgent, systemic reforms include phasing out fossil fuels, restoring forests and wetlands, reducing chemical pollution, and establishing safe minimum standards for air and water [5].

Outlook: Restoring Planetary Stability

While scientists warn the “window” for safe recovery is closing fast, Earth’s resilience remains remarkable—even now, robust policy action and universal cooperation can return us to safety [1].

The call is clear: societies must act together to restore boundaries, implement science-based targets, and reshape economies so future generations inherit a thriving planet [5].

References

1. Planetary Health Check 2025: Executive Summary (PBScience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 2025)
2. Planetary Health Check: 7 of 9 boundaries breached (Earth Commission, Sept. 2025)
3. Planetary Boundaries: Health Check 2025 – Permalogica, Sept. 2025
4. Connecting Planetary Boundaries and Planetary Health – Planetary Health Alliance, Aug. 2025
5. Seven of nine planetary boundaries now breached – Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sept. 2025

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Links

• Planetary Health Check 2025 Full Report (PDF)
• Planetary Health Check 2025 Executive Summary (PDF)
• Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – Planetary Boundaries Science Lab
• Stockholm Resilience Centre – Planetary Boundaries Framework
• Earth Commission: Planetary Health Check – Seven of Nine Boundaries Breached
• Permalogica: Planetary Boundaries Health Check 2025 Analysis
• Planetary Health Alliance: Linking Planetary Boundaries and Planetary Health
• Stockholm Resilience Centre News – Seven of Nine Planetary Boundaries Now Breached (2025)
• ABC News Climate and Environment Live Updates (2025)
• Nature (2025): Planetary Boundaries and Earth System Stability
• Planetary Health Check – Official Site
• World Economic Forum – State of Nature and Climate 2025 Report (PDF)
• ScienceDirect: Advances in Planetary Boundary Research (2025)
• PIK Potsdam News – Seven of Nine Planetary Boundaries Now Breached
• University of Copenhagen: Rising Risks to Earth’s Life-Support Systems (2025)
• The Lancet Planetary Health: Boundary Science and Human Wellbeing (2024)
• Human Level: The State of the Planet 2025 Overview
• National Institutes of Health (PMC): Planetary Boundaries and Global Health Review
• Science Advances: Quantifying Earth System Thresholds (2025)

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The Earth Uncloaked - a catastrophe in slow motion - Julian Cribb

Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

Woodman, spare that tree! Touch not a single bough!
In youth it sheltered me, And I’ll protect it now. – GP Morris 1837

AUTHOR

Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

From one side of the globe to the other, the ring of axe, the snarl of chainsaw and the roar of flame are sounding the knell for the world’s forests, as the green Earth turns scarred, charred and desolate.

Originally, forests cloaked 57% of the land. Today their area is 31%. 420 million hectares of forest have been lost since 1990 and 10 million more are now lost each year.

Rates of deforestation are worst in Russia, Brazil, Canada, the USA and China. But the trend is not all one way: in Scandinavia, for example, the process of forest loss is being reversed with new plantings and restoration. 

Deforestation (total loss) is not the only threat: thinning for timber, inroads by farming, fragmentation by roads and towns, pest invasions, wildfires and climate change also take a heavy toll of what remains. Forest loss is a primary driver of the 6^th extinction.

Together these forces, propelled by insatiable human demands, are whitling away at the last remaining intact forests on Earth. Between 2000 and 2020, the area of intact forest fell by 1.55 million sq kms – a span the size of France, Germany and Spain combined.

Ominously, over this period, the annual rate of forest loss sped up, from an average of 7.1m ha between 2000-2013 to 9m ha from 2013-2020. The uncloaking of the Earth is closely observed by the unblinking eyes of a thousand satellites orbiting the planet.

In Brazil, the Amazon rainforest has dwindled in extent by 17%, losing over 800 million trees in the last two decades. While the plight of the Amazon is notorious, the fact that Brazil has already destroyed 85% of its huge eastern tropical rainforest, the Mata Atlantica, and fragmented the remains, is less well-known. The removal of the Brazilian forests has profound consequences for the drying of the entire South American continent, and for global climate change through the gradual destruction of the largest carbon sink on the planet.

Another vast forest, vital to the Earth’s life support system but under savage attack, is the Northern Boreal Forest, which spans Canada, the USA, Scandinavia and Russia, and is falling before a combined assault from logging, farming, mining and energy extraction, urban spread, climate change and the increased wildfires, pests and diseases which follow extensive tree felling.

Figure 1. Causes of global tree cover loss 2021-24. Source: Global Forest Watch, 2025.

Despite its green image, the wholesale destruction of the world’s forests was led by Europe. Over six thousand years, with the invention of bronze and iron axes and spread of agriculture, it gathered pace. By 1800 half of its wooded area was gone. There has been little letup in recent times, with Europe today continuing to remove trees and having next to no primary forest left.

Today, the chief villains in global deforestation are not farmers or even miners, but the giant food corporations and their agribusiness offshoots, currently shredding the world’s forests and their wildlife so as to produce more beef, soybeans, chocolate and palm oil for the unhealthy industrial diets they have marketed so successfully to urban consumers.

Corporate food is a major factor in the removal of the rainforests of Southeast Asia, which has lost half its trees since logging began. In the first two decades of the C21st, the region lost over 610,000 sq kms, an area larger than Thailand. The countries most affected are Indonesia, Malaysia and Borneo and the main cause is clearing for industrial palm oil production. The orangutan, Javan rhino, and Sumatran tiger are among the wildlife critically endangered by the destruction.

A balancing act

The world forest scene is not one of unrelieved despair, as large areas are being replanted by eager volunteers or regenerate naturally every year, offsetting some of the losses. The following table shows how the gains compared with the losses between 2000–2020. All told, 101 million hectares more were lost than gained.

Figure 2. Changing tree cover 2000-2020. Source: Global Forest Watch, 2025.

Both Russia (+37mha/yr) and Canada (+17mha/yr) successfully replanted large areas of forest during this period – but not nearly as much as they removed.

Of huge significance is the growing area of disturbed forest, which is subject to selective logging, fragmentation by roads and farms, wildfire and pests or diseases. Disturbance has been found by scientists to convert forest from a carbon absorber to a net emitter – and thus, an accelerator of climate change. It is estimated that presently less than 30% of the world’s remaining forest area is undisturbed.

Climate impact

There is now ominous evidence from round the world that the Earth’s depleted forests are becoming a major contributor to Hothouse Earth – in a vicious feedback loop that few expected.

Tropical forest loss alone releases nearly 5 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year, which is equivalent to 10% of annual human emissions. This means that tropic forests now add as much carbon to the atmosphere as all industry worldwide.

The Amazon, once one the world’s most biologically diverse ecosystems and important carbon sinks, has been found by science to emit more CO2 than it now absorbs as a result of deforestation, fragmentation, wildfires and climate change.

Between 2001 and 2024, according to Global Forest Watch, the world’s forests emitted 9.15 billion tonnes of carbon, and removed -14.4 billion tonnes a year. This represents a net sink (reduction) of -5.29 billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon a year.

If all forests located outside of agricultural and urban areas were allowed to recover globally, they would have the potential to capture 226 gigatons of carbon, says the World Economic Forum. This would mop up almost a third of humanity’s carbon emissions.

Forest conservation

Forests deliver profound benefits to humanity, including

· Much of the oxygen we breathe.

· Trapping and storing carbon, reducing global warming.

· Bringing rain and feeding the global water cycle.

· Storing fresh water.

· Protecting the soil and increasing fertility.

· Vital resources for humans, livestock and wild animals.

As a result, forest protection is being actively promoted worldwide. Here are some salient initiatives:

· Trillion Trees Campaign: aims to plant and restore one trillion trees worldwide. Afforestation initiatives accelerated in 2025 in nations including Brazil, Kenya, and India.

· UN Strategic Plan for Forests: aims by 2030 to grow the world’s forest area by 3%, or 120 million hectares, over twice the size of France.

· International Tree Foundation

· Trees for the Future

· Global Tree Initiative

· The Bonn Challenge

· Plant a Billion Trees – The Nature Conservancy.

· World agroforestry - CIFOR

· The Great Green Wall of China.

· The Great Green Wall of Africa

Almost every country in the world has a tree planting program, some of them highly successful – notably those of India, Ethiopia, Turkey and Costa Rica. But the fact remains, these efforts are still being outrun by the industrial logging giants, Russia, Brazil, Canada, the USA and China. And many countries have a bet each way by promoting tree planting to the public while quietly and deceptively encouraging their logging and land clearing sectors.

Deforestation is a global catastrophe in slow motion. Despite the good intentions of many it is still accelerating, as humans continue to gnaw, like termites, at the very foundations of the Earth’s life support system – and their own future. 

Links to further articles by Julian Cribb

• The great dying  
• Australia issues ‘terrifying’ climate warning 
• 'Died of a delusion': the fate of modern civilisation? 
• Humanity is risking catastrophe, UN warns  
• The great human brain fade... 
•  Military experts warn of climate wars 
•  Water in crisis 
•  Our steady march to disaster 
•  The Earth is under chemical attack 
•  Saving a 'livable Earth' 
• Devouring the Earth 
•  Switching off Earth's life support...