Between Fire and Flood: The Reality of Australia’s 2035 Climate Sprint - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Australia recorded its 4th warmest year in 2025, shattering historical expectations for a "cool" phase. 1 The "Heat-Niña" phenomenon has fundamentally redefined the impact of traditional climate cycles. 3 The Great Barrier Reef faces a dual threat from localised bleaching and sediment-heavy flood plumes. 4 The Federal Government has surged its 2035 emissions reduction target to a 62–70% range. 8 Meeting new climate goals requires tripling the current rate of national emissions reductions. 11 AEMO warns two-thirds of coal power must retire by 2035 to maintain grid stability and targets. 12

Australia’s climate baseline has officially shattered after 2025 was confirmed as the nation’s fourth-warmest year on record, despite the cooling influence of a La Niña cycle.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s Annual Climate Statement reveals a continent grappling with a permanent shift in atmospheric behaviour. ^[1]

With national mean temperatures sitting 1.23°C above the 1961–1990 average, the data suggests that even our "cool" years are now significantly hotter than the "hot" years of the previous century. ^[2]

This thermal creep has culminated in the "Heat-Niña" of 2025, a freakish hybrid event that saw the second-warmest summer on record occur during what should have been a dampening weather pattern. ^[3]

Off the coast, the Great Barrier Reef is enduring a perilous "tale of two stresses" as it battles both rising sea temperatures and the toxic aftermath of tropical storms. ^[4]

In response to these compounding crises, the Australian government has dramatically pivoted its policy, committing to a 62–70% emissions reduction target by 2035. ^[8]

This "2035 Sprint" necessitates a radical industrial overhaul, with energy market regulators warning that two-thirds of the coal fleet must vanish within a decade. ^[12]

Economists and scientists alike are now warning that the window for a gradual transition has closed, replaced by a mandatory sprint toward decarbonisation. ^[11]

The reality of a 1.23°C anomaly means that the "normal" we once understood is no longer a viable reference point for policy or survival.

As the nation looks toward a precarious 2026, the fragility of our ecosystems and the urgency of our energy transition have never been more exposed.

2025: The Year the Baseline Broke

For decades, Australian meteorology was defined by the predictable oscillation between El Niño and La Niña, but 2025 has proved that this cycle is no longer a reliable shield against global heating.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirmed on February 9, 2026, that the national mean temperature for 2025 was 1.23°C above the standard reference period. ^[1]

This figure places 2025 as the fourth-warmest year since records began in 1910, a statistic that becomes even more alarming when the underlying climate drivers are considered.

Typically, a La Niña event facilitates cooler surface temperatures across the Australian continent due to increased cloud cover and rainfall.

However, 2025 defied these historical norms, delivering a "Heat-Niña" that saw persistent heatwaves rolling across the southern states during the height of the wet phase.

The summer of 2024–25 was the second warmest on record for Australia, a fact that has forced climatologists to reconsider the cooling capacity of the Pacific Ocean’s natural cycles. ^[3]

Data indicates that the heat trapped in the upper layers of the ocean is now so substantial that it can override the traditional cooling mechanisms of the atmosphere.

This "broken baseline" means that the floor of our temperature range has been elevated, making moderate heatwaves more frequent and extreme heatwaves more deadly.

Regional data from the BOM highlights that parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory experienced temperatures consistently 2°C above average for the majority of the year.

The persistence of these anomalies suggests that the natural variability of the Australian climate is being increasingly drowned out by the steady signal of anthropogenic warming.

Experts argue that the 1961–1990 average, used as a benchmark for decades, may no longer be relevant for a nation currently experiencing 21st-century extremes.

As we move further into 2026, the question is not whether the baseline will return to normal, but how much further it will climb.

The Great Barrier Reef: A Tale of Two Stresses

The Great Barrier Reef is currently the epicentre of a complex climate battleground, where the threats are no longer just thermal, but also hydrological.

As of February 5, 2026, the Reef is caught in a pincer movement between lingering heat stress and the sudden influx of terrestrial runoff.

Recent aerial and underwater surveys have detected "high" levels of coral bleaching in the Southern region, with 31–60% of surveyed corals showing signs of pigment loss. ^[5]

Sea surface temperatures remain between 0.3°C and 0.7°C above the seasonal average, keeping the Reef on a knife-edge of a potential mass bleaching event. ^[4]

While heat is a well-known adversary, the arrival of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Koji in January 2026 has introduced a secondary, more insidious stressor.

The storm dumped record-breaking rainfall across the Queensland coast, resulting in massive freshwater plumes that have extended far into the inshore reef systems. ^[6]

These plumes carry vast quantities of sediment and agricultural nutrients, which can "smother" coral polyps and block the sunlight necessary for photosynthesis. ^[7]

While the rain provided a temporary, localised cooling effect, the trade-off has been a significant drop in salinity levels that can lead to "freshwater bleaching."

Marine biologists from the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) are concerned that the cumulative impact of these stresses will reduce the Reef's ability to recover during the winter months. ^[5]

The sediment plumes are particularly damaging to the fragile branching corals that serve as critical habitats for fish species.

This dual-stress scenario highlights the multifaceted nature of climate change, where one "relief" (rainfall cooling the water) creates another catastrophic problem (sediment runoff).

The Reef’s resilience is being tested to its absolute limit, as it navigates a summer defined by both fire in the water and floods from the land.

The "62-70% Sprint" (New Policy)

The political landscape in Canberra underwent a seismic shift in late 2025 when the Australian government officially updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). ^[8]

Recognising that the previous targets were insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the new commitment aims for a 62–70% reduction in emissions by 2035.

This new target represents one of the most ambitious climate pivots in the nation’s history, moving Australia from a laggard to a leader in the developed world.

However, the scale of the challenge is immense, as hitting these numbers requires the rate of emissions reduction to triple over the next ten years. ^[11]

The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) has indicated that this "sprint" will involve every sector of the economy, from heavy industry to domestic transport. ^[8]

Central to this strategy is the massive expansion of the "Capacity Investment Scheme," which aims to provide a safety net for the rapid deployment of renewable energy and storage. ^[10]

The 2026 Integrated System Plan (ISP), released by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), provides the blueprint for this transformation. ^[9]

The ISP makes it clear that the transition is no longer a choice but a logistical necessity to prevent a complete collapse of the ageing energy grid.

Policy analysts suggest that the 62–70% target is not just an environmental goal but a prerequisite for Australia’s future economic competitiveness in a decarbonising global market.

Green hydrogen, critical mineral extraction, and large-scale solar exports are expected to form the backbone of this new economy.

Yet, the political cost of such a rapid shift remains high, with regional communities and trade unions seeking guarantees that no worker will be left behind.

The 2035 target has set the stage for a decade of intense legislative activity and industrial disruption.

AEMO and the End of Coal

The most confronting aspect of the 2026 Integrated System Plan is the projected timeline for the retirement of Australia’s coal-fired power stations.

AEMO projects that approximately two-thirds of the remaining coal fleet will be decommissioned by 2035, leaving a massive gap in the nation’s baseload power supply. ^[12]

To fill this void, Australia must build out its renewable energy capacity and transmission infrastructure at a pace never before seen in the Southern Hemisphere.

The Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) has been designated as the primary tool to incentivise the billions of dollars in private investment required for this build-out. ^[10]

Grid stability is the paramount concern for AEMO, which is tasked with managing the influx of variable renewable energy while ensuring the "lights stay on."

The 2026 ISP emphasizes that the "firming" of the grid—via batteries, pumped hydro, and gas-fired peaking plants—is the most urgent priority for the next five years. ^[9]

Many of Australia’s coal plants are reaching the end of their operational lives, becoming increasingly unreliable and expensive to maintain.

The sudden closure of major plants like Eraring or Yallourn could trigger price spikes and supply shortfalls if the renewable replacements are not ready.

AEMO’s data suggests that the transition to a 82% renewable grid by 2030 is still technically feasible but requires immediate and sustained action. ^[12]

The social license for this transition is also under pressure, as the construction of high-voltage transmission lines often faces opposition from local landholders.

Despite these hurdles, the economic reality of cheap wind and solar is driving the market faster than many politicians had anticipated.

The end of coal in Australia is no longer a distant prospect but a looming deadline that will define the success or failure of the 2035 Sprint.

Analytical Summary

The climate data of 2025 and early 2026 confirms that Australia has entered an era of "unprecedented volatility" where traditional climate models provide little comfort.

The emergence of the "Heat-Niña" demonstrates that global ocean heating has reached a threshold where it can neutralise historical cooling cycles.

On the Great Barrier Reef, the dual pressures of thermal bleaching and sediment plumes from extreme weather events create a compounding crisis that threatens the very existence of the ecosystem.

The federal government’s 62–70% emissions target for 2035 is a necessary, albeit late, response to these physical realities, demanding a tripling of current reduction efforts.

The rapid retirement of coal, as outlined by AEMO, represents the most significant industrial transformation in Australian history, fraught with both technical and social risks.

Ultimately, the "broken baseline" of 2025 serves as a final warning that the cost of inaction is now far higher than the cost of a rapid, radical transition.

References

1. Bureau of Meteorology - Annual Climate Statement 2025
2. Bureau of Meteorology - Time Series of Australian Temperatures
3. Bureau of Meteorology - Australian Rainfall and Temperature History
4. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority - Current Reef Health
5. Australian Institute of Marine Science - Long-term Reef Monitoring
6. Bureau of Meteorology - Tropical Cyclone History and Impacts
7. Australian Institute of Marine Science - Water Quality and Sedimentation Research
8. DCCEEW - Australia's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
9. AEMO - 2026 Integrated System Plan (ISP)
10. DCCEEW - Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) Overview
11. Climate Council - Analysis of 2035 Emissions Targets
12. AEMO - Coal Fleet Retirement Projections and Grid Stability

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Climate Change Drives Surge in Australia's Critically Endangered Species - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Australia's critically endangered species have surged amid climate impacts.1 Rising temperatures and fires exacerbate habitat loss.2 Mountain species face shrinking snow-covered habitats.3 Marine ecosystems suffer repeated bleaching events.4 Freshwater fish populations crash in droughts.5 Policy reforms lag behind accelerating threats.6

Climate Crisis Pushes Australia's Wildlife to the Brink

In the shadowed gullies of Victoria's Central Highlands, a tiny marsupial clings to survival.

The Leadbeater's possum, Australia's rarest, darts through scorched eucalypts, its glider-like membrane useless in a world without gliding fog.

Once numbering thousands, fewer than 1000 remain, their habitat ravaged by the 2019-20 Black Summer fires.¹

Ecologist David Lindenmayer surveys the burn scars, his voice heavy.

"We've lost 50% of their habitat in a single event," he says.

"Climate change loaded the gun; fires pulled the trigger."²

This possum's plight mirrors a national catastrophe.

Australia now lists over 100 species as critically endangered, up 30% since 2015.³

Climate change—through heat, drought, deluge and blaze—amplifies every threat.

National Biodiversity in Freefall

The 2021 State of the Environment report painted a grim picture.

One in five plant and animal species face extinction.⁴

Since 2000, 59 species have vanished, the highest rate globally.

The Threatened Species Index shows a 25% decline in monitored species since 2000.⁵

Rising temperatures compound this.

Average land temperatures have climbed 1.5°C since 1910, double the global rate.⁶

Heatwaves now strike three times more often.

Droughts intensify, slashing water flows by 20-40% in southern rivers.⁷

Bushfires burn bigger and hotter; the 2019-20 inferno charred 97,000 square kilometres.

Habitat loss from clearing adds 10,000 hectares annually.⁸

CSIRO models predict 60% more extreme fire weather days by 2050.⁹

Alpine Ghosts

In the Victorian Alps, the mountain pygmy-possum faces oblivion.

This golf-ball-sized marsupial hibernates under snow, which has shrunk 30% since 1990.¹⁰

Warmer springs trigger early bogong moth flights, depriving it of food.

Biologist Philip Brodersen monitors the last colonies.

"Snow cover is their blanket and fridge," he explains.

"Without it, they starve or overheat."¹¹

Numbers have plummeted from 5000 to under 1000 since 2000.

Fires reached their snowline refuges in 2020, killing half the population.

With snow seasons halving by 2070, relocation offers slim hope.

Coral Catastrophe

Off Far North Queensland, Lizard Island's reefs tell a bleaker tale.

The Great Barrier Reef has bleached five times since 2016, killing 50% of corals.¹²

Marine heatwaves—three times more likely due to climate change—cook the symbiosis.

Species like the peppermint boxfish and harlequin shrimp vanish with their homes.

Reef ecologist Terry Hughes logs the losses.

"Recovery takes 10-15 years between events," he says.

"Now they hit every two."¹³

Acropora corals, once dominant, now cover just 4% of surveyed reefs.

Fewer fish means collapsing food webs.

Global heating pushes survivors toward poles, but reefs can't migrate.

Riverine Collapse

The Murray-Darling Basin's Macquarie perch gasps in shrinking pools.

Droughts and irrigation have cut flows 50%, warming waters to lethal levels.¹⁴

Blackwater events—oxygen crashes from decaying algae—suffocate fish en masse.

Fisheries scientist Mark Lintermans surveys ghost streams.

"Cold-water releases from dams used to save them," he notes.

"Now summers hit 30°C everywhere."¹⁵

Numbers have fallen 90% since European settlement.

Invasive carp explode in warmer waters, outcompeting natives.

Climate models forecast 2-4°C basin warming by 2050.

Policy Under Fire

The Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC) governs threats.

Yet a 2020 review found it fails climate integration.¹⁶

Only 5% of 500 recovery plans address climate change explicitly.

The 2022-2032 Threatened Species Action Plan aims for zero extinctions.

Experts doubt it amid 2°C warming trajectories.¹⁷

"We need nature laws fit for climate reality," says Biodiversity Council head Amanda Martin.

Federal spending on recovery remains under 0.1% of budget.

New 2025 listings added 20 species, mostly climate-vulnerable.¹⁸

Seeds of Hope

Amid despair, action stirs.

Indigenous rangers restore 1 million hectares using cultural fire.

Drones seed fire-killed forests; AI models track populations.

Victorian possum translocations show promise.

Yet urgency defines the hour.

Cuts to emissions offer the only brake.

As Lindenmayer warns: "Delay extinction today, or regret it tomorrow."

Communities rally, but nature's clock ticks relentlessly.

References

1. DCCEEW Threatened Species List
2. Biodiversity Council: Climate Extinction Risks
3. Australia State of the Environment 2021
4. SoE Biodiversity Overview
5. Threatened Species Index
6. CSIRO State of the Climate
7. Climate Change in Australia Report
8. ACF Threatened Species Report
9. CSIRO Climate Projections
10. Phenoca: Pygmy Possum
11. Wombat Foundation Report
12. NOAA Reef Bleaching
13. AIMS Reef Surveys
14. MDBA Basin Report
15. Canberra Times: Macquarie Perch
16. EPBC Review Final Report
17. Threatened Species Action Plan
18. ACF 2025 Listings

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Heat, storms and sirens: how Darwin’s sporting heart is reshaping itself for a hotter future - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Darwin’s rising heat and humidity are already reshaping how and when sport is played in the Top End. 1 Climate projections point to many more days of dangerous heat stress for outdoor athletes this century. 2 Local clubs and leagues are shifting training, rewriting heat and lightning policies, and investing in shade and cooling. 3 Extreme conditions risk pricing out grassroots and community sport, especially for remote and Indigenous communities. 4 Darwin’s experience mirrors a broader national and international trend as cities from Cairns to Perth adjust sports calendars to a hotter climate. 5 The future of sport in tropical Australia will depend on how quickly adaptation, urban design and emissions cuts keep pace with the heat. 6

Beating the sun to the ball

The first whistle comes long before sunrise at Marrara, when the sky over Darwin is still purple and the air already feels like a wet towel. ¹

Under the floodlights, junior footballers jog laps in 29-degree heat and thick, invisible humidity, their coaches urging them to drink now because it will only get hotter when the sun lifts over the palms. ⁷

Parents cluster in the shade of the grandstand, knowing that by mid-morning the same oval will be too hot to touch, let alone to play four quarters of Territory footy. ⁸

Training at 5am was once a pre-season novelty, something done in the build-up before the late storms rolled in, but in recent summers coaches say it has become the norm rather than the exception. ⁶

By late afternoon, storms march in from the Arafura Sea, bringing spectacular lightning that can shut down matches in minutes under strict safety rules. ⁹

For Football NT and AFL Northern Territory, juggling the fierce wet-season thunderheads with rising temperatures has become a constant exercise in rescheduling, shortening quarters and finding slivers of safe time in the day. ³

Across town, cricket nets stand empty through the hottest hours as junior coaches push sessions later into the night, while athletics squads talk about “chasing the breeze” in whatever cool change the monsoon offers. ¹⁰

Darwin’s climate has always demanded flexibility, but the numbers now tell a sharper story, with more very hot days and warm nights, and humidity that keeps bodies from shedding heat. ²

Sports physicians warn that this combination of heat and moisture drives up the risk of heat stress and exertional heat illness far faster than temperature alone, especially for children and older players. ¹¹

As the Northern Territory contemplates projections that parts of the Top End could become close to unliveable during future heatwaves, sport is emerging as an early test of how a tropical city can adapt or be forced to pull back. ⁴

Climate science – Darwin’s new baseline

Darwin sits squarely in Australia’s tropical north, where the Bureau of Meteorology describes a pronounced wet season from November to April marked by monsoonal rain, high humidity and frequent thunderstorms. ⁷

Typical wet-season temperatures already range from around 25 to 32 degrees, with humidity often pushing above 80 per cent, conditions that make sweating less effective at cooling the body. ⁷

Even in the dry season, average daytime maximums hover in the low 30s with humidity around 60 per cent, which means “cooler” months elsewhere in Australia still present heat challenges in Darwin. ¹⁸

Nationally, the latest State of the Climate report from CSIRO and the Bureau finds that Australia has already warmed by about 1.5 degrees since 1910, with more frequent and intense heat extremes over land. ²

The report projects a continued increase in air temperatures and a rise in dangerous heat days in coming decades, especially if global emissions remain high. ²

For the Top End, this means more days and nights where heat and humidity combine to push wet bulb globe temperature, a measure that blends temperature, humidity, sun and wind, into ranges considered unsafe for strenuous outdoor sport. ¹³

A growing body of climate-health research in northern Australia warns that these conditions are likely to become more common and more intense, with reports by health and community groups cautioning that extreme heat could make parts of the Territory difficult to inhabit without major adaptation. ⁴

Policy groups working with the Darwin Living Lab have noted that local culture often treats heat as something to be toughed out, yet interviews with clubs and communities show that this attitude is beginning to shift as the risks sharpen. ⁶

Researchers argue that sport is particularly vulnerable because high-intensity exercise boosts internal heat production, leaving less margin for error when the climate baseline lifts. ⁵

In practical terms, that means more early-morning and night-time sport, more cancelled fixtures during heatwaves and storms, and more pressure on lungs, hearts and hydration whenever play does go ahead. ²²

Sporting strain – bodies, fans and fields

On the ground, the first signs of climate stress show up in how coaches mark up their whiteboards and how often officials reach for the heat policy. ²¹

Sports Medicine Australia’s extreme heat policy notes that as humidity rises, sweat evaporates less efficiently, so the same thermometer reading can carry very different risks in Darwin compared with a dry inland town. ⁸

The guidelines recommend rescheduling or modifying play once heat-stress indices pass certain thresholds, suggesting that vigorous sport should avoid the hottest part of the day and that more shade, water and cooling strategies are essential. ⁸

Community sport already has sobering examples, with documented cases of players collapsing or suffering heat strain during matches in southern cities at temperatures that are routine in the Top End. ²

In Darwin, club volunteers describe extra drink breaks, ice towels on boundary lines and a culture where players are encouraged, rather than shamed, to pull themselves off if they feel dizzy or nauseous. ²³

For spectators, the strain is different but no less real, as metal seats, concrete terraces and unshaded hill areas turn into heat sinks that can deter families and older fans from turning up at all. ⁷

Venue operators report that the combination of hot nights and volatile storms during the wet makes it harder to plan fixtures and maintain surfaces, with heavy downpours damaging turf and lightning rules forcing sudden evacuations. ¹

Football NT’s own lightning policies warn administrators that wet-season storms, while spectacular, can be a “nightmare”, recommending postponements when lightning is predicted within 10 kilometres of a match. ¹

Australian sport more broadly has had a preview of what climate volatility can do, with major events impacted by smoke, flooding and heatwaves in recent years, prompting national sports bodies to treat climate change as a core risk rather than a background issue. ⁷

For Darwin’s players, the lived experience of all this is simpler, captured in phrases like “we train in the dark now” and “we’ll call it if the clouds build too fast”, a quiet rewriting of sporting routines around the new climate. ⁶

Policy and adaptation – changing the rules of the game

In response, Territory sports bodies are slowly hardening their policies and infrastructure against the heat. ³

AFL Northern Territory has an extreme weather and severe weather rule that allows officials to alter match schedules, add longer breaks, increase water carriers or even postpone games when the Bureau issues heatwave or thunderstorm warnings. ²⁴

The league says it monitors Bureau data in real time, adjusting kick-off times to avoid the worst of the afternoon heat and providing guidance to clubs on cooling tactics and player safety. ²⁴

Similar hot-weather templates circulated through national sporting systems urge clubs to reschedule play when combined heat and humidity indices exceed safe thresholds and to build shade, drinking stations and rest areas into every venue. ¹³

The Australian Institute of Sport and partner organisations have promoted the use of wet bulb globe temperature and sport-specific heat tools to help coaches decide when to modify or abandon sessions. ²³

At the policy level, the Northern Territory Government’s climate change response and related adaptation plans frame sport and recreation as part of a broader push to make communities “climate ready”. ²⁶

Adaptation frameworks for northern development highlight the need for changes to working hours, school timetables and community practices, including more night-time activities and climate-appropriate clothing, to reduce heat exposure. ²²

Urban designers working with the Darwin Living Lab emphasise shade trees, reflective materials and breezeways around ovals and courts, arguing that passive cooling can significantly lower ground-level temperatures. ⁶

Nationally, the Australian Sports Commission’s clearinghouse on sport and climate notes that days over 35 degrees and high UV exposure are already affecting training loads and participation, particularly in outdoor codes. ²⁷

For Darwin’s administrators, these guidelines translate into concrete decisions such as investing in shade structures over junior courts, installing misting fans in grandstands and exploring whether more competitions can shift towards the slightly milder dry-season months. ²⁵

Equity and identity – who gets left on the sideline

Heat does not fall evenly, and neither do the costs of adapting sport to a hotter climate. ⁴

Territory health advocates warn that low-income households and remote communities, including many Aboriginal communities, already bear the brunt of poor housing, limited cooling and high energy costs during heatwaves. ⁴

Climate adaptation groups in the NT stress that equitable adaptation must protect environmental, social and cultural values, which in practice means ensuring that sport remains accessible rather than becoming a luxury for those who can pay for indoor courts and air-conditioned gyms. ²⁶

For Indigenous sporting pathways, which often depend on community-run footy, basketball and athletics programs, hotter days and disrupted seasons threaten a key avenue for health, connection and local pride. ⁶

Remote clubs may find it harder to comply with detailed heat policies that assume easy access to real-time weather apps, specialised equipment or covered facilities. ²³

Advocates argue that funding for shade, cooling and transport needs to flow first to these communities, both to protect health and to avoid a slide in participation and the associated health costs of inactivity. ⁹

At the same time, sport remains central to the Territory’s identity, from packed NTFL grand finals to the role of community carnivals in remote towns, meaning any climate-driven retreat from outdoor sport would carry cultural as well as physical losses. ⁷

National analyses of climate and sport warn that without careful planning, extreme heat could drive down grassroots participation, especially among children, older people and those without access to air-conditioned spaces. ⁹

For Darwin, which leans heavily on its image as a place of outdoor life, sunset games and year-round activity, that prospect cuts against how the city sees itself. ⁴

The challenge, local advocates say, is to make adaptation not just a technical exercise in shade sails and schedules, but a conversation about fairness, opportunity and whose games get to go ahead. ²⁶

Beyond Darwin – shared heat, different responses

Darwin is not alone in facing hotter, trickier conditions for sport, but its tropical climate magnifies the stakes. ⁵

Further down the Queensland coast, cities like Cairns and Townsville are also grappling with steamy summers and a growing number of days above 35 degrees, prompting local leagues to move junior games to evenings and expand shade at grounds. ⁷

In Perth, prolonged heatwaves have pushed some community sport fixtures into twilight and night slots and raised questions about the safety of synthetic surfaces that can reach extreme temperatures in direct sun. ²

The Climate Council has documented multiple examples of elite events disrupted by fire, flood, heat and smoke, illustrating how climate change is already changing where and when sport can be safely played. ⁷

Internationally, cities in Southeast Asia and the Pacific with similar hot, humid climates have experimented with evening-only competition windows, indoor training hubs and stricter youth heat thresholds. ⁵

Researchers studying climate impacts on sport describe most current responses as incremental adaptation rather than transformative change, arguing that sporting organisations are still at an early stage in integrating climate risk into their core planning. ⁵

For Darwin’s clubs and councils, this wider pattern offers both warning and guidance, showing that adaptation is possible but requires sustained investment, clear policies and a willingness to rethink long-held routines. ²²

National clearinghouse work on sport and climate suggests that aligning local policies with federal guidance can help spread good practice, from shared heat tools to standardised education for coaches and volunteers. ²⁷

At the same time, experts caution that reliance on adaptation alone, without deeper emissions cuts, risks pushing sporting communities into an ever-shrinking envelope of safe play. ²

In that sense, Darwin’s ovals and courts are small but vivid theatres for a much larger story about how societies adjust to a climate that is moving faster than many institutions were built to handle. ¹⁴

Outlook – adaptation or attrition

Looking ahead, scientists are clear that without rapid global emissions reductions, northern Australia will see more extreme heat, more humid-hot days and more intense rainfall bursts that challenge infrastructure. ⁶

Climate-adaptation advocates in the Territory argue that becoming “climate ready” will require collaboration across sport, health, housing, energy and planning, so that safe play is built into how the city grows. ²⁶

If that adaptation succeeds, future Darwinites may still lace up for footy, cricket and athletics, but at different hours, under deeper shade and with heat policies as familiar as the rules of the game. ²³

If it falters, the risk is a slow attrition, where participation ebbs, fixtures shrink and the city’s outdoor sporting culture recedes to a narrower band of months and people who can afford to buy their way out of the heat. ⁹

For now, the pre-dawn drills at Marrara offer a glimpse of both resilience and constraint, as players find ways to keep the ball moving while the climate around them shifts. ⁶

References

1. Tourism Australia – Weather in Darwin
2. Bureau of Meteorology & CSIRO – State of the Climate 2024
3. AFL Northern Territory – Severe Weather and Extreme Heat Rules
4. ABC News – Extreme heat and the Northern Territory
5. ClimaHealth – Climate impacts in sport: Extreme heat and adaptation
6. Darwin Living Lab – Understanding extreme heat and air quality in Darwin
7. Climate Council – Game, Set, Match: Calling Time on Climate Inaction
8. Sports Medicine Australia – Extreme Heat Policy
9. ACT Commissioner for Sustainability – Climate Change and Sport
10. Australasian Leisure Management – Extreme heat risk in NT tourism, sport and recreation
11. Australian Sports Commission – Sport, Climate and the Environment
12. Playing in the Heat – Guidelines for Sport
13. Sports Medicine Australia – Hot Weather Guidelines and Sports Heat Tool
14. CSIRO – State of the Climate overview
15. Football NT – Lightning Policy
16. NCCARF – Climate‑adaptive northern development
17. ALEC – Climate change adaptation in the Northern Territory
18. Time and Date – Climate and weather averages for Darwin

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Changing the Game: How Climate Change Is Reshaping Sport in Hobart - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Hotter summers and erratic weather are disrupting Hobart’s community sport calendars and forcing last‑minute rescheduling of games1 Iconic grounds like Blundstone Arena and coastal ovals are under growing pressure from turf stress, heavy rain and rising seas2 Heat, smoke and UV are emerging as frontline health risks for athletes, volunteers and spectators in southern Tasmania3 Councils and clubs face rising costs to keep facilities playable as climate extremes push up maintenance, insurance and cancellation risks4 Hobart’s climate strategies and Tasmania’s risk assessments now treat sport facilities as critical community infrastructure needing adaptation5 By 2050, more hot days, bushfire smoke and coastal inundation are likely to reshape how, when and where Hobartians play sport6

Changing the Game on the River Derwent

The first thing you notice at the suburban oval in Sandy Bay is not the sound of the whistle, but the shimmer of heat rising off the grass on a day that locals used to call rare. ¹

It is a Saturday afternoon in late January and the junior cricket match has already been pushed back an hour to dodge the worst of the UV, yet the boundary line is still ringed with parents huddling under hastily erected shade tents as the temperature edges past 30C. ¹

Umpires pause play more often now, calling extra drink breaks and instructing coaches to rotate fielders out of the sun‑soaked infield so no teenager spends too long in the hot spots. ³

On the hill beyond the pavilion, older club members swap stories of when Hobart summers were “milder” and days like this came only once or twice a season, not in the clusters that increasingly define the city’s heatwaves. ²

They talk about the smoky days too, when the view across the River Derwent disappeared during the 2019–20 bushfire season and organisers quietly cancelled junior training because the air stung in the lungs. ³

That summer of smoke was a turning point, as hazardous air quality closed outdoor events across south‑eastern Australia and even triathlons in Tasmania were scrapped, signalling that climate change was no longer a distant threat but a direct interruption to the sporting calendar. ³

In Hobart, a city that prides itself on cool conditions ideal for running, rowing and footy, local leagues now juggle fixtures around extreme heat, heavy downpours and high‑risk fire days in a way administrators say would have been unthinkable two decades ago. ²

At Blundstone Arena, the state’s showpiece cricket ground at Bellerive, ground staff work year round to keep a lush surface alive through increasingly demanding seasons, aware that rainfall patterns and heat stress are subtly reshaping their profession. ²

For players from community clubs to Big Bash professionals, the changing climate is no longer just a talking point in post‑match interviews; it is something they feel in their throats when smoke rolls in, in their heads when humid heat lingers after dark, and in their wallets when cancelled fixtures cut into match fees. ⁶

As Hobart councils, clubs and state agencies piece together climate resilience strategies, sport has become an unexpected frontline, revealing how a warming world is rewriting the rules of weekly routines and community life on the lower Derwent. ⁵

Why Hobart’s Climate Now Matters On Field

Hobart still markets itself as a cool‑temperate capital, yet the City of Hobart notes that the city already averages around seven days a year over 30C and that number is projected to rise to about ten by 2050 as climate change accelerates. ²

Those extra hot days may sound modest compared with mainland heatwaves, but for a city built around outdoor sport, even a handful more scorchers can mean more postponed games, more early‑morning kick‑offs and more pressure on volunteers to make rapid calls on player safety. ²

The city’s Climate Ready Hobart strategy warns that residents should prepare for more intense bushfires, floods and coastal inundation over coming decades, underlining that extreme weather is expected to become a more routine part of life rather than an exception. ⁵

At the state level, Tasmania’s risk assessments for climate change point to hotter conditions, more intense rainfall events and heightened fire danger, with flow‑on consequences for human health, infrastructure and key sectors including tourism and recreation. ⁶

For sports administrators, that big‑picture science translates into granular questions such as how to manage heat stress at junior fixtures, when to cancel training due to smoke or storms, and whether historic grounds can cope with more frequent flooding. ⁶

Researchers in the Climate Futures for Tasmania project, led by University of Tasmania scientists, have shown that under high emissions scenarios the state could see significantly warmer conditions by late century, with implications for everything from snow sports to the reliability of cool summer days. ⁴

For Hobart’s coastal suburbs and low‑lying ovals, projections of sea‑level rise and storm surges add another layer of risk, as grounds close to the Derwent foreshore or estuarine wetlands face greater exposure to saltwater inundation and erosion. ⁵

These trends intersect with local social realities, because the council’s climate risk assessments also highlight that hotter days and heatwaves can exacerbate health inequalities, especially for older residents and those with existing conditions who may be less able to adapt quickly. ⁵

In practice, that means the question of whether community sport can continue safely in hotter, smokier summers becomes part of a broader debate about resilience, equity and access to cool, green public spaces in Hobart’s suburbs. ²

It is this convergence of climate science, local planning and community wellbeing that is now pushing sport administrators, councils and clubs to treat climate adaptation as core business rather than a side issue for future committees. ⁵

Fixtures in Flux: Heat, Rain and Smoke

Across southern Tasmania, administrators describe a quiet revolution in how fixtures are scheduled, as summer heat spikes, intense rain bands and smoky days become more common features of the sporting year. ²

The Bureau of Meteorology’s long‑term climate statistics for Hobart show that summer maximums have trended upwards over recent decades, while rainfall has become more variable, with dry spells punctuated by short, heavy falls that can waterlog playing surfaces. ⁷

Junior cricket and football competitions report more early‑morning or twilight scheduling in January and February to avoid the highest UV and heat loads, a practical adaptation that nonetheless disrupts family routines and volunteer rosters. ³

During the 2019–20 bushfire season, hazardous smoke from fires burning across south‑eastern Australia led to cancellations or relocations of outdoor events nationwide, including a Tasmanian triathlon that was scrapped because of poor air quality linked to local fires. ³

Those months of smoke prompted the Australian Institute of Sport to issue guidance for athletes, recommending that healthy individuals reschedule outdoor training when the air quality index exceeds 150 and advising asthmatic athletes not to train outdoors at lower thresholds. ⁸

Although Hobart’s air quality is generally good by global standards, increases in bushfire smoke incidents are a growing concern for endurance sports such as rowing and distance running that rely on long training sessions outdoors. ⁶

Rainfall extremes also play havoc with fixtures, as intense downpours saturate turf fields and force last‑minute closures to protect both players and playing surfaces, while nearby weeks can remain unusually dry, stressing grass and complicating pitch preparation. ⁷

Local sport and recreation agencies point out that such volatility has cumulative effects, because repeated cancellations can weaken club finances, erode player engagement and make it harder to justify investment in volunteer‑run competitions. ⁹

For families in Hobart’s heat‑exposed suburbs, which the city’s recent urban heat mapping has identified as several degrees warmer than surrounding areas on hot days, these disruptions can reduce access to affordable physical activity close to home. ²

In turn, the future of local sport in a changing climate increasingly depends on how well clubs, councils and state agencies can redesign competitions, training times and support systems to keep people safely active despite more frequent weather‑driven interruptions. ⁹

Stadiums Under Stress: Hobart’s Vulnerable Venues

Sport in Hobart is inseparable from its grounds, from the boutique grandstands of Blundstone Arena to the community terraces at North Hobart Oval and the wind‑swept fields of Queenborough Oval near the Derwent. ¹

Blundstone Arena’s turf managers already operate in a tricky climate, juggling limited warmth and daylight with heavy year‑round usage, and have invested in specialised ryegrass mixes, sand profiles and intensive oversowing to keep the surface resilient. ¹

Industry case studies describe how the arena’s outfield was reconstructed with hundreds of tonnes of coarse sand and robust ryegrass strains to improve drainage and turf recovery, a model for climate‑smart turf management in cooler but increasingly variable conditions. ¹

As rainfall patterns shift and evaporation increases, water security for grounds becomes more pressing, echoing national research that shows climate change and prolonged dry periods can severely constrain access to irrigation water for sports fields. ¹⁰

For coastal and low‑lying venues around Hobart, the risks are different but equally significant, with the city’s Climate Ready Hobart documents flagging increased coastal inundation and erosion as key threats to infrastructure in coming decades. ⁵

Ovals near estuaries or the riverfront face the prospect of more frequent flooding and saltwater intrusion, which can damage turf, undermine drainage systems and increase the cost and complexity of maintenance. ⁵

Council strategies now emphasise integrating climate risk into asset management, essentially treating sportsgrounds and clubrooms as critical community infrastructure that must withstand future extremes rather than simply be repaired after each event. ⁵

Active Tasmania, the state’s sport and recreation arm, supports local governments and clubs to upgrade facilities through infrastructure grants, providing opportunities to incorporate shade, water‑efficient irrigation and resilient surfaces into redevelopment projects. ⁹

While debates over a proposed multipurpose stadium at Macquarie Point focus heavily on economics and design, they also highlight the need to consider sea‑level rise, storm surges and heat in long‑lived investments that will shape Hobart’s sporting landscape for decades. ⁷

Taken together, these pressures mean that from elite venues to suburban ovals, Hobart’s future sporting capacity will hinge on sustained investment in adaptation, not only glamorous new stands. ⁵

On the Sidelines of Safety: Heat, Smoke and UV

For athletes and volunteers, the most tangible effects of climate change are not policy documents but the physical strain of training and competing in hotter, smokier and more UV‑intense conditions. ³

Medical researchers analysing the 2019–20 bushfire season have documented how prolonged smoke exposure exacerbated respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, prompting public health advice that people reduce outdoor activity and stay indoors when air quality deteriorated. ⁶

That advice sits uneasily with the rhythms of community sport, where teams are reluctant to call off long‑anticipated finals and where players may feel pressure to ignore irritated airways or headaches during smoky training sessions. ⁶

The Australian Institute of Sport’s smoke haze guidelines give clearer thresholds, recommending that clubs reschedule outdoor sessions once the air quality index passes set levels and cautioning that athletes with asthma are at heightened risk even at lower readings. ⁸

Similar guidance exists for extreme heat, with national sports medicine bodies urging administrators to modify or cancel play when temperatures and humidity push up the risk of heat exhaustion or heat stroke, particularly for children and older participants. ¹¹

In Hobart, where heat has often been perceived as a minor issue compared with mainland centres, these protocols are starting to be taken more seriously as the number of hot days creeps upward. ²

Sports organisations are encouraged to adopt sun protection policies that address both UV exposure and heat stress, including provision of shade, regular hydration breaks and education on recognising early signs of overheating. ¹²

For clubs with limited resources, implementing such measures can be challenging, yet failure to do so risks not only player health but also liability if injuries occur in foreseeable conditions linked to climate trends. ¹²

In this context, the role of institutes like the Tasmanian Institute of Sport becomes crucial, as they can translate national guidelines and emerging research into locally relevant training programs and safety protocols for athletes and coaches. ⁸

Ultimately, keeping sport safe in a warming Hobart will mean normalising the idea that cancelling or reshaping a fixture for health reasons is a sign of responsibility, not weakness. ¹¹

Counting the Cost: Tourism, Events and Club Finances

Beyond the boundary line, climate disruption to sport in Hobart carries economic consequences for tourism operators, councils and small clubs that depend on reliable calendars and predictable weather. ⁶

Major fixtures at Blundstone Arena, from international cricket to Big Bash matches, draw visitors to the city, filling hotels and restaurants, but they are also increasingly exposed to cancellation or delay risks from rain, smoke or heat. ¹

More broadly, state reports on climate impacts note that sectors such as tourism and outdoor recreation face heightened uncertainty as extreme weather events become more frequent, threatening both revenue and insurance affordability. ⁶

Tasmania’s tourism strategies now explicitly link environmental sustainability and emissions reduction to the long‑term appeal of the state as a destination, acknowledging that climate disruptions can damage both brand and business confidence. ¹³

For councils, maintaining sports infrastructure under more variable climate conditions adds to budget pressures, as they must repair flood damage, invest in improved drainage or shade structures and potentially relocate or redesign vulnerable facilities. ⁵

Active Tasmania’s facility development and grant programs help offset some of these costs, yet demand for upgrades often exceeds available funding, especially in regions where multiple ovals, courts and clubrooms require simultaneous adaptation. ⁹

At club level, the financial risks are immediate, because repeated washouts or heat‑related cancellations can reduce bar takings, gate receipts and sponsorship value, undermining already tight budgets. ¹⁰

Insurance is another emerging pressure point, with national discussions highlighting how increased climate‑related damages are pushing premiums higher for many community organisations that rely on older facilities. ⁶

In Hobart, where sport is central to social life in many suburbs, the erosion of club finances due to climate volatility risks widening inequalities, as well‑resourced clubs adapt while others struggle to survive. ⁶

The question for policymakers is whether adaptation funding and planning can keep pace with these economic stresses, ensuring that community sport remains accessible across the city, not only in its wealthiest postcodes. ⁵

Planning Ahead: Climate‑Ready Sport by 2050

Looking ahead to 2035–2050, the contours of a climate‑ready sporting city in Hobart are starting to emerge in council strategies, state risk assessments and early on‑ground experiments. ⁵

The Climate Ready Hobart strategy lays out priorities for a climate‑ready built environment, a greener city and disaster preparedness, signalling that future investments in parks and sports facilities should embed resilience rather than retrofit it. ⁵

That could mean more shade structures over grandstands and playgrounds, expanded tree canopy around ovals in heat‑prone suburbs, and redesigned clubrooms that can double as cool refuges on extreme heat days. ²

Clubs are already experimenting with altered training times, shifting sessions to mornings or evenings in the height of summer and using digital alerts to communicate heat or smoke‑related changes to members. ⁸

Some facilities may move towards hybrid or synthetic playing surfaces that better tolerate heavy use and variable rainfall, although such shifts raise questions about cost, injury risk and the feel of traditional codes like AFL and cricket. ¹⁰

At the policy level, Tasmania’s evolving climate projections and risk assessments provide a framework for mainstreaming climate considerations into sport funding decisions, so that new or upgraded venues are designed with future heat, rainfall and coastal risks in mind. ⁴

Education will be as important as engineering, because building a culture where athletes, coaches and parents understand and act on heat, smoke and UV risks can reduce harm even when infrastructure is imperfect. ¹¹

In many ways, sport offers a practical entry point for climate engagement, as decisions about start times, shade, water and air quality are immediately relevant to families and communities. ⁶

By mid‑century, if Hobart succeeds in its resilience ambitions, weekend sport could look slightly different – more morning games, more tree‑lined ovals, more flexible calendars – but still feel recognisably like the communal ritual it is today. ⁵

The stakes are high, because what is being defended is not only fixtures and facilities but the web of relationships, identity and belonging that sport sustains in a small, passionate sporting city at the edge of a warming sea. ⁶

What Climate‑Changed Sport Reveals About Hobart

In Hobart, climate change is no longer an abstract graph but a reshaping force on the ovals, courts and rivers where people gather each week to play, coach, cheer and volunteer. ²

From the reconstructed turf of Blundstone Arena to the heat‑mapped suburbs of New Town and Lenah Valley, the city’s sporting infrastructure is quietly absorbing the pressures of hotter days, heavier downpours and smokier summers. ¹

The responses under way – new climate strategies, upgraded drainage, shade structures, evolving safety protocols – show that adaptation is possible, but also that it demands sustained investment and attention. ⁵

As Tasmania’s climate projections grow sharper and its tourism and economic strategies grapple with the realities of a warming world, sport offers a revealing lens on how communities value shared spaces and collective wellbeing. ⁴

If Hobart can protect and reimagine its sporting life in the face of climate disruption, it will not only preserve cherished traditions but also demonstrate the kind of practical, local resilience that larger systems changes will require. ⁵

References

1. City of Hobart – Hobart suburbs most at risk from summer heat shocks
2. City of Hobart – Climate Risk First Pass Assessment Report
3. Guardian Australia – Bushfire smoke impacts on sport and events
4. Climate Futures for Tasmania – General climate impacts summary
5. City of Hobart – Climate Ready Hobart Strategy 2040
6. The Critical Decade – Tasmanian impacts of climate change
7. Bureau of Meteorology – Climate statistics for Hobart (Site 094029)
8. Australian Institute of Sport – Advice to athletes on smoke haze
9. Active Tasmania – Facility development and infrastructure grants
10. Climate Proofing Sport and Recreational Facilities Strategy (Loddon Shire)
11. Sports Medicine Australia – Extreme heat risk and response guidelines
12. NSW Office of Sport – Sun, heat and air quality guidelines
13. Tasmanian Parliament – Tourism, climate change and net zero discussion
14. Austadiums – Turf management at Blundstone Arena

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Trump’s EPA decides climate change doesn’t endanger public health – the evidence says otherwise: The Conversation

The Conversation - Jonathan Levy  Howard Frumkin  Jonathan Patz  Vijay Limaye 

Rising global temperatures are increasing the risk of heat stroke on hot days, among many other human harms. Ronda Churchill/AFP via Getty Images

Authors Jonathan Levy Professor and Chair, Department of Environmental Health, Boston University  Howard Frumkin Professor Emeritus of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington  Jonathan Patz Professor of Environmental Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison  Vijay Limaye Adjunct Associate Professor of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison

The Trump administration took a major step in its efforts to unravel America’s climate policies on Feb. 12, 2026, when it moved to rescind the 2009 endangerment finding – a formal determination that six greenhouse gases that drive climate change, including carbon dioxide and methane from burning fossil fuels, endanger public health and welfare.

But the administration’s arguments in dismissing the health risks of climate change are not only factually wrong, they’re deeply dangerous to Americans’ health and safety.

As physicians, epidemiologists and environmental health scientists, we’ve seen growing evidence of the connections between climate change and harm to people’s health. 

Here’s a look at the health risks everyone face from climate change.

Health risks and outcomes related to climate change. World Health Organization

Extreme heat

Greenhouse gases from vehicles, power plants and other sources accumulate in the atmosphere, trapping heat and holding it close to Earth’s surface like a blanket. Too much of it causes global temperatures to rise, leaving more people exposed to dangerous heat more often.

Most people who get minor heat illnesses will recover, but more extreme exposure, especially without enough hydration and a way to cool off, can be fatal. People who work outside, are elderly or have underlying illnesses such as heart, lung or kidney diseases are often at the greatest risk.

Heat deaths have been rising globally, up 23% from the 1990s to the 2010s, when the average year saw more than half a million heat-related deaths. Here in the U.S., the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome killed hundreds of people.

Heat-related deaths in the US

 

The number of heat-related deaths reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention increased in recent years as the U.S. saw some of its hottest years on record.

2023 count was provisional data

Chart: The Conversation, CC-BY-ND Source: Jeffrey T. Howard, et al., JAMA, 2024 Created with Datawrapper

Climate scientists predict that with advancing climate change, many areas of the world, including U.S. cities such as Miami, Houston, Phoenix and Las Vegas, will confront many more days each year hot enough to threaten human survival.

 

Extreme weather

 

Warmer air holds more moisture, so climate change brings increasing rainfall and storm intensity and worsening flooding, as many U.S. communities have experienced in recent years. Warmer ocean water also fuels more powerful hurricanes.

Increased flooding carries health risks, including drownings, injuries and water contamination from human pathogens and toxic chemicals. People cleaning out flooded homes also face risks from mold exposure, injuries and mental distress.

Flooding from hurricanes and other extreme storms can put people at risk of injuries during the cleanup
while also triggering dangerous mold growth on wet wallboard, carpets and fabric. This home flooded up
to its second flood during Hurricane Irma in 2017. Sean Rayford/Getty Images

Climate change also worsens droughts, disrupting food supplies and causing respiratory illness from dust. Rising temperatures and aridity dry out forests and grasslands, making them a setup for wildfires.

 

Air pollution

 

Wildfires, along with other climate effects, are worsening air quality around the country.

Wildfire smoke is a toxic soup of microscopic particles (known as fine particulate matter, or PM2.5) that can penetrate deep in the lungs and hazardous compounds such as lead, formaldehyde and dioxins generated when homes, cars and other materials burn at high temperatures. Smoke plumes can travel thousands of miles downwind and trigger heart attacks and elevate lung cancer risks, among other harms.

 

Wildfires can be a large source of health-harming PM2.5

 

During big wildfire years, California's average level of fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, can almost double. Air pollution research shows PM2.5 can harm human health.

Chart: The Conversation/CC-BY-ND Source: Rachel Connolly, et al., 2024 Created with Datawrapper

Meanwhile, warmer conditions favor the formation of ground-level ozone, a heart and lung irritant. Burning of fossil fuels also generates dangerous air pollutants that cause a long list of health problems, including heart attacks, strokes, asthma flare-ups and lung cancer.

 

Infectious diseases

 

Because they are cold-blooded organisms, insects are directly influenced by temperature. So with rising temperatures, mosquito biting rates rise as well. Warming also accelerates the development of disease agents that mosquitoes transmit.

Mosquito-borne dengue fever has turned up in Florida, Texas, Hawaii, Arizona and California. New York state just saw its first locally acquired case of chikungunya virus, also transmitted by mosquitoes.

As global temperatures rise, regions are becoming more suitable for mosquitoes to transmit dengue virus. The map shows a suitability scale, with red areas already suitable for dengue transmissions and yellow areas becoming more suitable. Taishi Nakase, et al., 2022, CC BY

And it’s not just insect-borne infections. Warmer temperatures increase diarrhea and foodborne illness from Vibrio cholerae and other bacteria and heavy rainfall increases sewage-contaminated stormwater overflows into lakes and streams. At the other water extreme, drought in the desert Southwest increases the risk of coccidioidomycosis, a fungal infection known as valley fever.

 

Other impacts

 

Climate change threatens health in numerous other ways. Longer pollen seasons increase allergen exposures. Lower crop yields reduce access to nutritious foods.

Mental health also suffers, with anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress following disasters, and increased rates of violent crime and suicide tied to high-temperature days.

New York and many other cities now open cooling centers during heat waves to help residents, particularly older adults who might not have air conditioning at home, stay safe during the hottest parts of the day. Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

Young children, older adults, pregnant women and people with preexisting medical conditions are among the highest-risk groups. Lower-income people also face greater risk because of higher rates of chronic disease, higher exposures to climate hazards and fewer resources for protection, medical care and recovery from disasters.

 

Policy-based evidence-making

 

The evidence linking climate change with health has grown considerably since 2009. Today, it is incontrovertible.

Studies show that heat, air pollution, disease spread and food insecurity linked to climate change are worsening and costing millions of lives around the world each year. This evidence also aligns with Americans’ lived experiences. Anybody who has fallen ill during a heat wave, struggled while breathing wildfire smoke or been injured cleaning up from a hurricane knows that climate change can threaten human health.

Yet the Trump administration is willfully ignoring this evidence in proclaiming that climate change does not endanger health.

Its move to rescind the 2009 endangerment finding, which underpins many climate regulations, fits with a broader set of policy measures, including cutting support for renewable energy and subsidizing fossil fuel industries that endanger public health. In addition to rescinding the endangerment finding, the Trump administration also moved to roll back emissions limits on vehicles – the leading source of U.S. carbon emissions and a major contributor to air pollutants such as PM2.5 and ozone.

 

It’s not just about endangerment

 

The evidence is clear: Climate change endangers human health. But there’s a flip side to the story.

When governments work to reduce the causes of climate change, they help tackle some of the world’s biggest health challenges. Cleaner vehicles and cleaner electricity mean cleaner air – and less heart and lung disease. More walking and cycling on safe sidewalks and bike paths mean more physical activity and lower chronic disease risks. The list goes on. By confronting climate change, we promote good health.

To really make America healthy, in our view, the nation should acknowledge the facts behind the endangerment finding and double down on our transition from fossil fuels to a healthy, clean energy future.

 

References

• Effects of Human-Caused Greenhouse Gas Emissions on U.S. Climate, Health, and Welfare​
• Climate Change and Health​
• Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under the Clean Air Act (2009)​
• Trends in Heat-Related Mortality in the United States​
• The 2024 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change​
• Increasing Lethal Heat Exposure Under Climate Change​
• Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke and PM2.5 in the Western United States​
• Dengue in the United States: 2024 Outbreak Updates​
• Climate Change Inaction Costs Millions of Lives Each Year​
• Where Greenhouse Gases Come From