Fossil Fuel Fascism: When a Dying Industry Tries to Take Democracy With It - Gregory Andrews

Lyrebird Dreaming - Gregory Andrews

Author Gregory Andrews is: Founder and Managing Director of Lyrebird Dreaming A former Australian Ambassador and High Commissioner in West Africa Australia’s first Threatened Species Commissioner A leader in Indigenous policy

There is a phrase that captures something ugly about the world we are now living through.

It sounds extreme. But so is the behaviour it describes. 

Fossil fuel fascism is what happens when the coal, gas, and oil industries begin to lose the economic argument, the scientific argument and the moral argument - and respond by attacking democracy itself.

It’s not simply climate denial. It’s not just lobbying. It’s not even just greenwashing. 

It’s the hardening of fossil fuel politics into something more nasty and aggressive: disinformation, culture war, attacks on science, intimidation of activists, capture of governments, weakening of environmental laws, and use of state power to protect industries that are cooking the planet. 

It also thrives on chaos, division, and war because a frightened, divided and exhausted public is easier to distract from the accelerating consequences of global heating.

The Guardian recently described this as part of a global energy power shift. China is racing ahead as an “electrostate”, dominating solar, wind, batteries and EVs, while the US under Trump is retreating into oil, gas, deregulation and fossil-fuel nationalism. The old American oil order is not disappearing quietly. It is fighting back.

This is the key point. Fossil fuel fascism is not a sign of strength. It’s a sign of panic.

For more than a century, fossil fuels shaped global power. Oil built empires. Coal powered industrialisation. Gas was sold as the “cleaner” bridge that would take us safely into the future.

Guernica by Pablo Picasso is perhaps the world’s most-famous anti-Fascist artwork

But the future has arrived - and it’s electric. Renewables are no longer the expensive alternative. They’re increasingly the cheapest form of new energy. IRENA found that in 2024, 91 per cent of newly commissioned utility-scale renewable capacity produced power more cheaply than the lowest-cost fossil fuel alternative. 

Utility-scale solar was 41 per cent cheaper, and onshore wind 53 per cent cheaper, than the cheapest fossil fuel option. Renewables also avoided an estimated US$467 billion in fossil fuel costs in 2024 alone. That changes everything.

Now that clean energy is cheaper, fossil fuel politics can no longer rely on the old argument that coal, oil and gas are necessary for prosperity. So the argument shifts. Suddenly renewables are “woke”. Climate action is “elitist”. EVs are an attack on freedom and emit dangerous radiation. Wind farms are a threat to the nation. Scientists are political enemies. Protesters are extremists. Gas becomes “security”. Coal becomes “sovereignty”. Delay becomes patriotism.

And while we’re pushed from one outrage to the next - culture wars, real wars, manufactured crises and political chaos - the planet keeps heating in the background.

This is how a dying industry disguises self-interest as national interest.

And Australia shouldn’t pretend it’s only an American disease. We have our own version. Wrapped in hi-vis vests and divisive language. We have a political system still deeply influenced by fossil fuel money. 

We approve new coal and gas projects while claiming to take climate change seriously. We count domestic emissions while pretending exported emissions vanish at the port. We talk about the clean energy transition while expanding the very industries driving climate breakdown. And when communities, scientists, young people, First Nations custodians or climate advocates object, they’re too often treated as obstacles to progress rather than voices of reason.

But fossil fuel fascism will be overcome for one simple reason: it is fighting the future.

The clean energy transition is now powered by technology, economics and public demand. Solar panels, batteries, heat pumps, electric vehicles and renewable grids are not fringe ideas anymore. They’re infrastructure. They’re jobs. They’re cheaper bills. They’re cleaner air. They’re energy independence.

The International Energy Agency says renewable power capacity is set to grow faster between 2025 and 2030 in more than 80 per cent of countries than it did in the previous five years, with solar accounting for almost 80 per cent of the global increase. The fossil fuel industry can slow the transition. It can corrupt it. It can make it more unjust. It can make the climate damage worse. But it cannot stop the physics, the economics or the moral force of people wanting a liveable future.

So what do we do?

First, we name it. Fossil fuel obstruction is not “balance”. It’s not “pragmatism”. It’s not “keeping the lights on”. When governments approve new fossil fuel projects in a climate emergency, they are choosing to make the crisis worse.

Second, we electrify everything we can. Rooftop solar. Batteries. Efficient homes. Heat pumps. Induction cooking. Electric cars, bikes, and buses. Every household, business, and community that gets off fossil fuels weakens the political power of the fossil fuel industry.

Third, we stop rewarding climate vandalism. Move banking, superannuation and investments away from companies funding fossil fuel expansion. Ask councils, universities, festivals, galleries, and community organisations who sponsors them. Culture matters. Social licence matters.

Fourth, we mobilise and vote like the climate is real. Not as a side issue. Not as a nice-to-have. But as the foundation of economic security, food security, health security and intergenerational justice. For me, that means getting involved in the community-based independents movement to get more people like David Pocock, Sophie Scamps and Kate Chaney elected to our Parliament. 

And finally, we refuse despair. Despair is useful to the fossil fuel industry because it turns us citizens into spectators. Hope, properly understood, is not optimism. It’s discipline. It’s action. It’s choosing to fight because the future is still being made.

Fossil fuel fascism is rising because the fossil fuel age is ending. Our job is to make sure it ends democratically, justly and fast.

Gregory Andrews Climate Change Articles

• Climate Policy Counts Dollars and Tonnes. What if We Counted the Dead?
• The Climate Crisis is a Health Crisis
• The Science Is In: Global Warming Is Accelerating
• While We Watch Iran, the Planet Keeps Burning
• Have your say on Canberra’s next Climate Strategy: It will be make or break
• Science Warns of Future Where Billions Bake
• Two Years to 1.7°C: the “Prediction Game” We Can’t Afford to Lose
• Emergency Photos Ops Aren't Climate Leadership
• Why Fascists Reject Climate Science
• Don’t Be Distracted: Earth’s Life Support Systems Are Collapsing
• Diesel rebates for miners and a new EV tax? Australia’s climate policy double-think
• What Gas is That? Get to Know Your Climate Pollutants

The Uneven Ground: How Climate Change Is Reshaping Women's Lives in Australia - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia's escalating climate disasters are falling hardest on women
who own less, recover slower, and carry the burden of care 
that never appears in disaster cost assessments

Key Points

Extreme heat is linked to elevated rates of preterm birth and stillbirth, with each 1°C temperature rise increasing preterm birth odds by around four per cent. 1 Domestic violence surges after natural disasters in Australia, with Black Saturday research confirming increased violence against women across affected Victorian shires. 2 Women in the Murray-Darling Basin report depression, family breakdown, and escalating caring burdens as drought and water scarcity destroy farm income and household stability. 3 Torres Strait Islander women face existential loss of Country as sea levels rise at more than double the global average, threatening cultural custodianship across generations. 4 Women hold fewer than 39 per cent of clean energy jobs in Australia and remain concentrated in administrative rather than technical or leadership roles. 5 Australia's disaster response and climate adaptation frameworks contain significant structural gaps in gender analysis, leaving women's compound vulnerabilities largely unaddressed. 6

At the height of the 2022 floods, women in Lismore, northern NSW, were wading through contaminated water to reach children. 

They had no cars. Several had no phones. The evacuation orders had come by text. 

Disability care workers, overwhelmingly female, stayed with clients who could not be moved. Emergency shelters offered no privacy screening, no sanitary supplies. 

In the months that followed, housing services recorded a sharp rise in women presenting with housing instability and domestic violence. The flood had broken open everything that was already fragile.

This is what gendered climate vulnerability looks like in practice. It sits beneath the aggregate damage figures, invisible in the official tallies. 

Women own fewer assets to lose, carry heavier care obligations when systems fail, and earn less to rebuild. 

They concentrate in the industries climate disrupts first. They get sick differently from the heat. They die less often in the acute disaster and suffer more in the long aftermath.

The Body Under Pressure

Heat is doing something to Australian pregnancies. A 2024 meta-analysis across 198 studies and 66 countries, including substantial Australian data, found that for every 1°C rise in ambient temperature, the odds of preterm birth increase by approximately four per cent. During heatwaves, that figure rises to 26 per cent. ¹

University of Queensland researchers have spent years tracking maternal exposure to ambient temperature across Queensland birth registers, documenting associations between extreme heat in the third trimester and preterm birth, stillbirth, and low birth weight. 

Their work points toward a particular cruelty: the pregnancies most exposed are in regional and outer suburban areas, where housing stock lacks insulation and cooling, and where women are less able to avoid outdoor heat exposure. As Australian summers lengthen, the window of reproductive risk widens.

For older women, the health calculus shifts. Respiratory medicine researchers have documented the long-term cardiovascular and pulmonary consequences of repeated bushfire smoke exposure, with elderly women facing compounded risk from pre-existing conditions amplified by particulate inhalation. The Black Summer of 2019-20 blanketed Sydney for weeks in smoke that frequently breached hazardous thresholds. Many older women in outer metropolitan and peri-urban areas spent that summer indoors, unable to open windows in summer heat, managing asthma, managing fear.

Vector-borne disease is expanding southward. Warming temperatures are extending the habitat range of mosquito species that carry Ross River virus and dengue, with coastal and peri-urban women facing elevated exposure through domestic and community care roles that keep them close to yards, gardens, and stormwater systems. The interaction between climate, ecology, and women's gendered use of space creates health vulnerabilities that standard occupational risk frameworks rarely map.

The Hidden Ledger of Care

Australian disaster cost estimates run to tens of billions of dollars. They count damaged infrastructure. They record insurance payouts. What they leave out is the economy of care that holds communities together during and after disaster, and that economy is run almost entirely by women.

During flood evacuations, women coordinate children, manage pets, communicate with elderly parents, liaise with schools about disrupted schooling, and maintain the household's administrative coherence under conditions of acute stress. In recovery, they manage insurance claims, find temporary accommodation, register for payments, and absorb the emotional demands of traumatised family members. ABS time use data has consistently shown women performing a disproportionate share of unpaid care and domestic work in normal conditions. In disaster conditions, that asymmetry deepens. ⁶

Women in frontline health and community services carry a version of this burden professionally. Emergency nurses, rural GPs, community health workers, and social workers, professions where women constitute the large majority of the workforce, absorb the cascading health and welfare consequences of climate disasters. The moral injury of managing inadequate resources against overwhelming need, of seeing the same patients return with new crises, constitutes a climate health impact on its own terms, one accumulating with each successive fire season or flood event.

The psychological weight of domestic climate adaptation also falls unevenly. Women in drought-affected households describe the daily cognitive load of rationing water, adjusting food budgets as climate-driven price shocks move through the fresh produce supply chain, preparing emergency plans, and monitoring fire risk apps. This is invisible labour, performed without support, without recognition, and without end.

The Murray-Darling: A Case Study in Accumulated Loss

Margaret Alston and colleagues at Monash University spent years in the Murray-Darling Basin during and after the Millennium Drought, listening to farm women describe what sustained water insecurity actually does to a household. The findings published in the journal Research, Action and Policy were stark: women reported depression, work-related family separations, marital breakdown, increasing financial responsibility for family sustenance as farm incomes collapsed, and escalating incidences of violence against them linked to drought stress. ³

Farm women in the Basin hold a particular structural exposure. Their unpaid labour, managing books, managing domestic operations, managing the social glue of the enterprise, rarely appears in farm income calculations. Their retirement savings are tied to land that loses value during drought. Their career continuity is disrupted by the cycles of agricultural crisis. The superannuation gap between men and women is wide across Australia, and wider still in rural communities where women's formal employment histories are interrupted by the demands of the family agricultural enterprise.

Climate change is intensifying the pressure on these women without a corresponding increase in support. The National Farmers Federation has produced agricultural outlook reports tracking commodity impacts and water availability projections. What those reports leave largely unexamined is the gendered distribution of the losses they document. Women own a minority share of agricultural land in Australia, inherit less, and have fewer liquid assets to draw on during prolonged income disruption. The Basin's next climate stress event will find them in the same position as the last, only older, and with less time to rebuild.

When Disasters Follow Women Home

Dr Debra Parkinson's research is among the most cited in Australian disaster studies, and the core finding remains disturbing: domestic violence increases in the aftermath of natural disasters. Her qualitative research across two Victorian shires following the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, drawing on in-depth interviews with 30 women, confirmed that violence against women rose in the disaster's wake. The data gap that made her work necessary, no reliable statistics had existed beforehand, itself revealed the historical resistance to examining male violence against women in post-disaster contexts. ²

Subsequent research has mapped this pattern internationally. A 98 per cent increase in physical victimisation of women followed Hurricane Katrina. A 53 per cent surge in family violence call-outs occurred on the weekend of the Christchurch earthquake. The mechanisms are consistent: economic stress, social displacement, alcohol, cramped temporary housing, severed support networks, and the concentrated exposure of women and children to men whose psychological resources have been stripped bare by disaster.

As bushfires intensify under climate change, this dynamic will worsen. The services designed to receive women fleeing violence, community legal centres, specialist DFV services, women's shelters, are the same services placed under maximum pressure by the disasters that generate the violence. In regional communities where services already operate on thin margins, disaster events can break the referral pathways entirely.

Climate-driven economic precarity compounds the picture. Farm debt, uninsurability in high-risk postcodes, job loss in climate-disrupted tourism and hospitality sectors, all concentrate financial pressure in households where women's economic autonomy is already constrained. The link between economic coercion and intimate partner violence is well established. Climate change is manufacturing the conditions for both.

Country Going Under

Women on the island of Saibai in the Torres Strait have told the Australian Human Rights Commission that within their lifetimes they may need to leave the place of their birth, the resting place of generations before them. Sea levels in the Torres Strait are rising at more than double the global average, at around 6.4 millimetres per year since 1992. For low-lying coral cay islands composed of alluvial sediments only metres above sea level, the physics are unforgiving. ⁴

For Torres Strait Islander women, the stakes exceed the material. Women hold custodianship of Country in ways that are legal, cultural, and spiritual simultaneously. The erosion of shorelines, saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers, coral bleaching, seagrass die-back, the disruption to marine species on which communities depend for subsistence and ceremony, all of these are losses that accumulate in the body as a form of ecological grief that Western mental health frameworks lack the vocabulary to fully describe.

The Torres Strait Regional Authority has confirmed that most parts of the low-lying inhabited islands will eventually be lost to sea level rise. The UN Human Rights Committee, in a 2022 ruling arising from a complaint by Torres Strait Islander community members filed in 2019, found that Australia's climate inaction constituted a violation of their right to family life and right to culture. The legal finding has produced limited material change.

Aboriginal women across mainland Australia are experiencing related forms of dispossession. Changes to seasonal calendars disrupt the transmission of plant medicine knowledge, food harvesting practices, and ceremony across generations. The warming of Country erases the ecological cues through which that knowledge is indexed. Once broken, these chains of transmission do not repair themselves.

The Green Economy's Uneven Dividend

Australia's clean energy transition will require the workforce to more than double. According to the Clean Energy Council, the sector needs to grow from roughly 21,500 workers to more than 59,000 to build and operate the generation, storage, and transmission infrastructure required to reach 82 per cent renewable electricity in the National Energy Market. Half the population, women, remain significantly underutilised in building this future. ⁵

Women currently hold fewer than 39 per cent of clean energy workforce roles in Australia. Their representation in technical, trades, and generation roles is lower still. The gender disparity is sharpest in upstream positions, electricity generation, network, transmission, and field jobs. Administrative and support functions retain the familiar pattern: women concentrated in the roles that pay least and carry least decision-making authority.

In the Latrobe Valley, where Victoria's coal-fired electricity sector is winding down and offshore wind is beginning to scale up, the transition dynamic is revealing. The declining coal workforce is male-dominated and the subject of substantial policy attention and retraining investment. The day-to-day coordination work that makes the transition real at community level, the trust-building, community engagement, education, and social infrastructure functions, falls largely to women, most of it unpaid or in lower-paid community sector roles.

Jobs and Skills Australia has identified increasing women's participation as essential to the workforce scale-up the transition requires. The federal government's $60.6 million Building Women's Careers programme, announced in the 2024 budget, is a step toward addressing structural barriers. Whether it reaches the scale and depth required to shift entrenched patterns across STEM education and workplace culture is a different question.

Governance Failures and the Data That Does Not Exist

Australia produces significant volumes of climate risk data. The Climate Change Authority's National Climate Risk Assessment, the work of CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, and state emergency management bodies, all map hazard exposure, projected costs, and adaptation priorities. The gender analysis within those documents is thin. Systematic gender-disaggregated data collection across health, housing, labour, and disaster response datasets remains patchy. The information needed to design gender-responsive policy is, in many crucial areas, absent. ⁶

Australia's legal framework for disaster response, including the National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework and state emergency management acts, references vulnerability but rarely operationalises gender equity in the specific, enforceable terms that would shift practice. Women's Environmental Leadership Australia's 2024 report on gender, climate, and environmental justice identified the vulnerability of women and gender-diverse people as amplified by intersecting factors including socioeconomic status, cultural and linguistic diversity, and disability, and called for systematic institutional responses that have been slow in coming.

Climate litigation is beginning to fill some of the governance vacuum. The Environmental Defenders Office has supported duty of care cases and planning law challenges that bear on the rights of future generations, many brought by or on behalf of women and young people. The Torres Strait complaint to the UN Human Rights Committee demonstrated the reach of international human rights law into Australia's domestic climate policy failures. These legal mechanisms are consequential but slow, expensive, and accessible to few.

What Remains

The picture that emerges from the research is one of compound disadvantage operating across multiple scales simultaneously. Individual women in drought-affected farming communities face financial ruin, psychological distress, and elevated risk of violence at the household level, while the institutional frameworks designed to protect them contain structural gaps at the policy level. Torres Strait Islander women face existential dispossession at the community level, while the international legal architecture that vindicates their rights lacks enforcement teeth at the geopolitical level.

None of these problems is intractable. Gender-disaggregated data collection can be mandated. Disaster response frameworks can embed gender equity as an operational standard, not an aspiration. Clean energy workforce programmes can prioritise women in technical and leadership roles, in the communities most affected by transition, in the trades that will pay most. Climate adaptation funding can be directed to the community-level organisations, overwhelmingly led and staffed by women, that build the resilience governments claim to want.

What the evidence demands is a reckoning with the structural causes of women's greater climate exposure. Climate change does not create these inequalities. It finds them already in place, then deepens every fault line. The policy response that treats gender as a secondary consideration, something to address once the main work of decarbonisation and adaptation is done, has already cost women in flood plains and farm communities and Torres Strait communities more than any official damage estimate acknowledges. The arithmetic of delay runs through women's bodies, women's savings, and women's futures.

References

1. Chersich, M. et al. (2024). A systematic review and meta-analysis of heat exposure impacts on maternal, fetal and neonatal health. Nature Medicine. See also: Dalugoda, Y. et al. (2024). Spatiotemporal Association Between Temperatures and Adverse Birth Outcomes, Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Sciences, University of Queensland.
2. Parkinson, D. and Zara, C. (2013). The hidden disaster: domestic violence in the aftermath of natural disaster. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 28(2). See also: Parkinson, D. (2019). Investigating the Increase in Domestic Violence Post Disaster: An Australian Case Study. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 34(11).
3. Alston, M. and Whittenbury, K. (Eds.) (2013). Climate Change, Women's Health, Wellbeing and Experiences of Gender Based Violence in Australia. In Research, Action and Policy: Addressing the Gendered Impacts of Climate Change. Springer, Dordrecht. See also: Yazd, S.D., Wheeler, S.A. and Zuo, A. (2019). Understanding the impacts of water scarcity and socio-economic demographics on farmer mental health in the Murray-Darling Basin. Ecological Economics.
4. Torres Strait Regional Authority. Climate Change in the Torres Strait. TSRA, 2024. See also: Australian Human Rights Commission. Intervention on Climate Change Impacts in the Torres Strait. AHRC.
5. Australian Renewable Energy Agency. (2025). Marching forward: the women leading the way in clean energy. ARENA. See also: Clean Energy Council. Clean Energy Australia Report, 2023.
6. Women's Environmental Leadership Australia. (2024). Gender, Climate and Environmental Justice in Australia. WELA. See also: Climate Change Authority. National Climate Risk Assessment. Commonwealth of Australia, 2023.
7. Australian Women's Health Alliance. (2025). Towards Climate, Health and Gender Justice: Addressing the Intersecting Impacts of Climate Change. AWHA.
8. Victorian Women's Trust. (2024). Heat Waves and Gender Gaps: Navigating the Complexities of Climate Change in Australia. VWT.
9. Gender and Disaster Australia. (2024). The Work of Gender and Disaster Australia. Presented at NEMA, 2024.
10. Jobs and Skills Australia. Cited in: The Policy Maker. (2025). (Em)powered women: towards a gender-inclusive workforce for Australia's clean energy future. APPI.
11. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Labour Force Survey; Gender Indicators, Australia. ABS, 2024.
12. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Mental Health Services in Australia; Australia's Health. AIHW, 2024.
13. ClientEarth. (2022). Torres Strait climate claimants win their historic human rights fight against the Australian Government. ClientEarth.

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The Uninsurable Nation: How Climate Risk Is Hollowing Out Australian Property Markets From Within - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Home insurance is disappearing across Australia's flood plains, 
bushfire corridors and eroding coastlines, leaving hundreds of 
thousands of families financially exposed and a banking system 
quietly absorbing risk it has not yet priced

Key Points

APRA's 2026 Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment projects one in four Australian homes will be uninsured by 2050, up from one in seven today. 1 Two-thirds of households surveyed in Lismore's flood zone currently hold no flood insurance, mostly because they cannot afford it. 2 Australian home insurance premiums rose at 7.2% annually between 2010 and 2025, more than double the 3.1% average wage growth over the same period. 3 Research on the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley shows properties in 1-in-100-year flood zones already sell at an approximately 11% discount to comparable low-risk homes. 4 RMBS issued by small regional banks carry disproportionately higher physical climate risk, with securitisation markets yet to fully incorporate this exposure. 5 The Insurance Council of Australia is lobbying for a government-backed Flood Defence Fund, arguing no equivalent to the Cyclone Reinsurance Pool currently protects flood-affected communities. 6

In the weeks after the 2022 Northern Rivers floods, residents of South Lismore began receiving letters. Not from emergency services. Not from the government. From their insurers. 

The letters said, in the dry language of actuarial assessment, that their homes were no longer insurable. Some had lived there for thirty years. A few had just finished paying off their mortgages. What the letters really said was: you are on your own.

A 2024 survey by Resilient Lismore found that two-thirds of households in the flood zone had no flood insurance, the majority because they could not afford it. ² 

Some had been quoted annual flood premiums of twenty thousand dollars or more. Others had simply been refused. 

For a town that sits in a river basin with a documented flood history stretching back to the colonial era, major floods in 2020, 2017, 2015, 2013, 2012 and the catastrophic 14.4-metre inundation of 2022, the retreat of insurance capital was not a surprise to hydrologists. It was a surprise to everyone who had a mortgage.

Lismore is not anomalous. It is instructive. Across Australia, a structural shift is occurring in the relationship between climate risk, private insurance, residential property and bank lending that is playing out below the surface of official discourse and well ahead of policy response. The question is no longer whether insurance deserts will form. They are forming now. The question is what they will leave behind.

The Scale of the Protection Gap

Australia's prudential regulator published its landmark Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment in early 2026. The headline figure is stark. Approximately one in seven Australian households is currently uninsured. ¹ 

By 2050, under both modelled scenarios, that figure rises to one in four. That is roughly one million additional households losing insurance protection over twenty-five years, at a rate of around 40,000 families every year. The five major insurers that participated, Allianz, Hollard, IAG, QBE and Suncorp, together hold around 80 per cent of the Australian home insurance market by gross written premium. Their own internal modelling produced those numbers, under APRA's supervision.

Between 2010 and 2025, Australian home insurance premiums rose at an average annual rate of 7.2 per cent. Wages grew at 3.1 per cent annually over the same period. ³ 

That gap has been compounding for fifteen years. In the Greater Sydney area alone, average home insurance rose by as much as 66 per cent since 2020. The Actuaries Institute estimated in 2024 that 1.6 million Australian households were already experiencing some form of insurance affordability stress. 

Climate Valuation, a property risk analytics firm, puts the current number of homes that are either uninsurable or practically unaffordable to insure at around 380,000, with the trajectory toward one in ten by 2035.

The Insurance Council of Australia has documented that insurance claims from catastrophic events rose by nearly 50 per cent in the five years to 2024, while around 1.2 million properties face some level of flood risk. Weather-related insured losses exceeded seven billion dollars in 2022 alone. ⁶ 

Of this, 80 per cent of the uninsurability risk nationally is attributable to riverine flooding. Bushfire and flash flooding account for most of the rest. Coastal erosion, slower and harder to model, is the third axis of a problem that planning systems have consistently underweighted.

The Mechanics of Disappearance

When insurers raise premiums or exclude specific perils from standard policies, they are not acting arbitrarily. They are translating data from third-party hazard modelling suites, layered over address-level exposure databases, into actuarial pricing. Risk Frontiers, Geoscience Australia's flood mapping datasets, satellite-derived coastal erosion models and global reinsurance pricing signals all feed into the algorithms that determine what a household pays. 

The insurer does not always disclose which maps govern a given address. The household often has no mechanism to challenge the assessment.

In coastal erosion zones like Wamberal on the NSW Central Coast, properties on the ocean side of a single street can face premiums an order of magnitude higher than those fifty metres inland. The automated underwriting logic responds to modelled inundation probability and retreat projections. It does not respond to the emotional reality of a family that bought a home, raised children there and now cannot sell it to anyone with a mortgage. ⁷ 

Banks require proof of insurance as a condition of settlement. Without insurance, the property cannot be sold to a mortgaged buyer. It becomes, in the blunt language of the market, a cash-buyer asset. That transition is not hypothetical at Wamberal. It is already occurring.

A significant driver of premium escalation is the international reinsurance market, which prices Australian catastrophe risk against a global portfolio of climate-exposed assets. As global losses from extreme weather have risen, reinsurance capital has become more expensive and, in some lines, more restricted. The cost is passed directly to the retail insurer and then to the consumer. 

In disaster-prone regional Queensland and northern New South Wales, the combined effect of local claims histories and international reinsurance repricing has produced the premium levels that now render entire postcodes uneconomic for standard household insurance products.

What Happens to a Mortgage

Home insurance is not optional for mortgaged property in Australia. It is a contractual condition of the loan. Banks require coverage for the life of the mortgage, and most lending contracts specify that a lapse in insurance constitutes a technical default. APRA's 2025-26 Corporate Plan is explicit on this point: declining insurance coverage among borrowers exposes banks to greater losses from climate risk. ⁸ 

A borrower who cannot obtain affordable insurance is, technically, in breach of their mortgage terms from the moment the policy lapses.

In practice, most Australian banks do not actively monitor post-settlement insurance compliance at the individual loan level. The mechanisms are ad hoc: periodic reminders at renewal, reliance on borrower self-reporting, occasional checks triggered by a disaster event. There is no centralised system that flags an individual mortgage as non-compliant when the insurance policy expires unrenewed. 

The exposure accumulates quietly. As APRA's Insurance CVA makes clear, a widening protection gap increases both the probability of mortgage default and the size of the loss when default occurs, because an uninsured damaged property may no longer cover the outstanding loan amount.

Reserve Bank research from 2024 found that residential mortgage-backed securities issued by small regional banks and credit unions carry disproportionately higher physical climate risk. ⁵ 

The RMBS market has not yet fully incorporated this exposure into credit enhancement structures. Regional lenders, by the nature of their geographic concentration, hold loan books with larger proportional exposure to high-risk postcodes than the major banks. If property values in those postcodes deteriorate materially, driven by uninsurability and the contraction of the mortgage market, the credit quality of those loan books deteriorates with them.

The Big Four banks conducted climate stress tests under APRA supervision in 2022. They predicted they would respond to higher climate risk by cutting back on high loan-to-valuation lending and reducing exposure to higher-risk regions. That rational commercial response, if enacted systematically, becomes a self-fulfilling driver of property devaluation. 

When banks withdraw lending from a postcode, cash-only transactions become the norm. Prices fall. Equity erodes. Owners who financed against a higher valuation find themselves underwater. ⁹

Property Values and the Price of Risk

Research published in early 2026, drawing on home sales data and digital flood maps from the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley, found that properties in the 1-in-100-year annual exceedance probability flood zone sold at an approximately 11 per cent discount compared to equivalent properties outside the zone. ⁴ 

In Richmond, a town of around 14,500 people in the valley with five major floods between 2020 and 2022, that translated to a median discount of around $89,000. The research noted that the discount reflected standard modelled flood risk but that buyers were systematically underweighting the far more destructive low-probability, high-severity flood events that the valley is capable of producing.

Insurers have already updated their pricing to account for these extreme events. The gap between what the market discounts a property for and what insurers charge to cover it signals something uncomfortable: the insurance pricing is ahead of the transaction pricing. Property buyers are still absorbing risk they have not fully priced. When a major flood event reprices the risk in a single season, the adjustment is sudden and severe.

In coastal erosion zones, the dynamics are structurally different. As insurance for the built structure disappears, the value of a beachfront or estuarine property collapses toward land value alone. 

At places like Wamberal Beach on the NSW Central Coast, where homes have been progressively threatened by erosion and where insurers have retreated from structural coverage, a property that commanded a premium for its ocean outlook increasingly holds its value only in the land parcel, and even that becomes uncertain as the shoreline moves. ⁷ 

The structure itself becomes worthless on the open market to anyone who cannot finance it and cannot insure it.

In Queensland, Climate Council modelling projected that one in sixteen homes statewide, or around 193,000 dwellings, could be classified as high-risk for insurance purposes by 2030. Federal electorates including Moncrieff, Wright, Griffith and Maranoa dominated the national top ten. In the highest-risk areas nationally, the proportion of properties facing effective uninsurability reaches 27 per cent.

A Socioeconomic Filter

The population bearing the greatest uninsurability risk is not randomly distributed. Flood plains, older riverine settlements and low-lying coastal towns disproportionately house working-class families, retirees on fixed incomes and people without the financial reserves to relocate. In Lismore's flood zone, Resilient Lismore's survey data documents a population with significant socioeconomic disadvantage. Affordability was the dominant reason for absent coverage. ² 

People who had returned to high-risk locations simply because they had nowhere else to go found insurers would not cover them at any price.

The rental dimension compounds this. When a landlord's insurance premiums rise sharply, those costs are absorbed first by the landlord and then passed to tenants. In a regional rental market with limited vacancy and housing stock already constrained by disaster damage, renters have little leverage to resist. The insurance cost effectively becomes an undisclosed component of the rent. The tenant carries the cost but not the coverage.

For elderly property owners who lack the liquidity to sell into a depressed market and the physical capacity to relocate independently, the situation approaches a permanent trap. Their homes, which often represent the primary store of intergenerational wealth for working-class families, are losing insurable value in real time. 

The ability to pass that asset to the next generation, mortgaged, insured and functional, is degrading. When the next major disaster strikes an uninsured community, the recovery will be financed by the household, by emergency government payments, or not at all.

The Governance Gap

The Northern Australia Cyclone Reinsurance Pool, established by the federal government in 2022 with a ten billion dollar backstop, demonstrated that public intervention can stabilise a private insurance market under acute climate pressure. When Cyclone Alfred was declared an insurance catastrophe in early 2025 with more than 63,000 claims lodged, the pool's structure meant that consumers were largely shielded from sharp premium spikes. ⁶ 

No equivalent mechanism exists for flood, the peril responsible for 80 per cent of Australia's uninsurability risk.

The Insurance Council of Australia is now lobbying for a government-backed Flood Defence Fund, arguing that a structural equivalent to the cyclone pool is the only mechanism capable of preserving affordable cover in flood-exposed communities at scale. 

The analogy with Florida's Citizens Property Insurance Corporation is instructive as both a model and a warning. Florida's insurer of last resort was originally conceived as a temporary backstop. It became, over two decades, the dominant insurer in the state, absorbing risk that private markets would not write and accumulating contingent public liabilities in the process.

Local governments in high-risk zones face a compounding fiscal problem. Their rate revenue is assessed against property values. As uninsurability drives down those values, the municipal rate base erodes. Infrastructure maintenance, emergency preparedness and the mitigation works required to reduce insurance risk all cost money that a shrinking rate base cannot reliably generate. The councils that most need levee upgrades and drainage improvements are the ones with the least financial capacity to fund them.

The planning system's role in creating this exposure cannot be avoided. Residential lots were approved across Australian flood plains and high-severity bushfire zones for decades by local councils that either could not foresee or chose not to confront the climate trajectory. In many cases, developer appeals overrode council refusals that had been grounded in flood risk. 

The structures built under those approvals are now the inventory of the insurance desert. A resident of South Lismore who bought on a flood plain because that was what was available, at a price they could afford, in the town where their family lived, had no individual means to anticipate that their street would one day be deemed uninsurable by an algorithm in an underwriting office in Sydney.

Looking Forward

The contraction of private insurance from Australia's highest-risk residential zones is not a failure of the insurance market. It is the market communicating a signal that the planning system, the banking sector and successive governments have been reluctant to hear. Risk that cannot be priced cannot be insured. Risk that cannot be insured cannot be mortgaged. 

Property that cannot be mortgaged cannot be sold at values that reflect what households paid for it. That sequence, playing out in slow motion in Lismore, in Richmond, in Wamberal, in northern Queensland, is the real estate equivalent of a balance sheet reckoning.

APRA will release further findings from its Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment to federal government and key agencies including the National Emergency Management Authority. 

The data will sharpen policy choices that are already uncomfortable: whether to subsidise insurance in zones that climate science says should not bear permanent residential development; whether to expand government-backed insurance pools knowing the contingent fiscal risk; whether to mandate managed retreat from the highest-exposure areas and at what compensation. None of these choices is without cost. The question is who bears it.

What is clear from the trajectory is that the cost of inaction accumulates faster than the cost of intervention. Between 2015 and 2024, the protection gap in Australia meant that 33 per cent of economic losses from natural catastrophes went uninsured, against a global average of 57 per cent. Australia, in other words, was already absorbing an unusually high proportion of its disaster losses without insurance cover. 

Every year that the protection gap widens, the bill deferred to households, to governments and to the financial system grows larger. 

The letters arriving in Lismore after 2022 were the beginning of an accounting that the rest of the country has not yet opened.

References

1. Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. 2026. Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment: One in Four Australian Homes Projected Uninsured by 2050. APRA.

2. Resilient Lismore. 2024. 2024 Lismore Flood Zone Survey and Outreach Project. Resilient Lismore.

3. Insurance Business Australia. 2026. One in Four Australian Homes Will Be Uninsured by 2050, Regulator Warns. Insurance Business.

4. The Conversation. 2026. We Pay Less for Houses in One-in-100-Year Flood Zones, But Overlook Risks of More Devastating Floods. The Conversation.

5. Reserve Bank of Australia. 2024. Assessing Physical Climate Risk in Repo-Eligible Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities. RBA Bulletin.

6. Money Magazine Australia. 2025. Uninsurable: The Truth About Australia's Flood Insurance Crisis. Money Magazine.

7. Australian Property Update. 2025. Flood, Fires, and Coastal Erosion: Assessing Property Risks. Australian Property Update.

8. Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. 2025. APRA Corporate Plan 2025-26. APRA.

9. Investing.com. 2022. Australian Banking System Cushioned for Imminent Climate Change-Related Risks, Regulator Says. Reuters/Investing.com.

10. Lismore City News. 2023. Uninsurable, Unsellable, Unrentable: Flood Insurance Inquiry Welcomed to Protect Homeowners. Lismore City News.

11. Green Central Banking. 2025. Australia and NZ Face Home Insurance Crisis Due to Climate, Experts Warn. Green Central Banking.

12. Reserve Bank of Australia. 2025. Financial Stability Review, October 2025: Resilience of the Australian Financial System. RBA.

13. Climate Council of Australia. 2022. Uninsurable Nation: Australia's Most Climate-Vulnerable Places. Climate Council.

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Australia's Courtroom Climate Judgement - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia's climate legal battles are outpacing Parliament
and forcing corporations to account for promises they cannot keep

Key Points

The Federal Court rejected a novel duty of care for Torres Strait Islanders in 2025, closing a key pathway for future government climate claims. 1 ASIC's greenwashing enforcement hit a record, with penalties of $11.3 million against Mercer and $12.9 million against Vanguard. 2 The 2019 Rocky Hill decision established that downstream emissions are a legitimate basis for rejecting fossil fuel development. 3 Mandatory climate disclosure commenced for Australia's largest companies from January 2025, creating new litigation pathways. 4 Santos won its Federal Court greenwashing case in February 2026, signalling courts will scrutinise evidence rigorously. 5 Australian courts are now engaging seriously with climate science but remain reluctant to expand government liability into policy territory. 6

The courtroom in Sydney's Queen's Square has rarely felt like the right place to argue about the future of the Great Barrier Reef or rising seawater in Torres Strait. 

Yet across the past six years, that is precisely where some of the most consequential debates in Australian climate policy have played out before judges asked to interpret old laws in a warming world.

Australia has no Bill of Rights, no constitutional guarantee of a healthy environment, and no standalone Climate Act. 

What it has, increasingly, is litigation. Citizens, community organisations, and activist investors are using consumer law, corporations law, administrative review, and planning statutes to do what federal legislation has not: hold emitters and governments accountable for what they say and what they do. 

The results are messy, contested, and genuinely significant.

Two threads run through this legal story. 

One is the search for a common law duty of care, a theory that governments and corporations owe future generations an obligation to reduce harm from climate change. 

The other is the greenwashing wave: a surge of regulatory and activist litigation targeting companies whose environmental claims have outrun their actual conduct. Both are reshaping corporate behaviour faster than any parliamentary committee.

The Duty of Care That Keeps Failing

The most ambitious attempt to use tort law for climate accountability ended quietly on 15 July 2025. Justice Wigney of the Federal Court dismissed the class action brought by two Torres Strait Island elders, Uncle Pabai Pabai and Uncle Guy Paul Kabai, on behalf of the traditional inhabitants of the Torres Strait. ¹ 

Their argument was precise: the Commonwealth owed them a duty to set emissions targets aligned with the best available science, and had breached that duty through a decade of inadequate action.

Justice Wigney declined to accept it. Emissions reduction targets, he found, involve matters of core government policy that courts are not equipped to adjudicate. ⁶ 

The reasoning tracked closely with the Full Federal Court's earlier reversal in Sharma, where a novel duty owed by the Environment Minister to school-aged children was initially recognised, then stripped on appeal in 2022. Together, the two cases draw a hard line around judicial intervention in climate policy: courts will hear the science, but they will not dictate the response.

That is not nothing. Justice Wigney also made a finding that if such a duty had existed, the Commonwealth would have been in breach for failing to set targets consistent with the best available science. It is a judicial aside, technically irrelevant to the outcome, and yet it sits in the record. The applicants have filed an appeal to the Full Federal Court. 

Whether the appellate bench revisits the duty analysis or confirms it will partly determine whether this strand of litigation has a future in Australia.

What the Pabai case exposed, beyond the doctrinal question, was the human weight behind the legal argument. The Torres Strait Islands sit barely above sea level. Storm surges already inundate graveyards. The cultural practice the applicants called Ailan Kastom, connection to sea, land, and ancestors, was argued to constitute a recoverable loss under negligence. 

Justice Wigney declined to recognise it as compensable harm. The communities whose existence prompted the case remain as exposed as they were when the proceedings began.

Planning Law as Climate Veto

While federal tort law has stalled, state planning tribunals have moved with more confidence. The clearest precedent remains Gloucester Resources v Minister for Planning, decided by the NSW Land and Environment Court in February 2019. Chief Justice Preston rejected the Rocky Hill coal mine project not primarily on procedural grounds, but on substantive climate ones. An open cut coal mine in that valley, he found, would be in the wrong place at the wrong time. ³

The significance of that framing is still unfolding. Chief Justice Preston found a causal link between the project's emissions and climate change, and crucially refused the argument that a project producing a small fraction of global emissions could not meaningfully contribute to global warming. Every tonne counts. 

That reasoning has filtered through the NSW Independent Planning Commission and influenced subsequent coal mine assessments. The Bylong Coal Project was rejected on similar grounds just months later.

State tribunals have produced more durable climate jurisprudence than federal courts partly because planning appeals turn on merits, not legal novelty. A judge assessing whether a mine is in the public interest can weigh emissions directly. The standard does not require inventing a new duty of care. It requires good science and a willingness to use it, both of which Chief Justice Preston demonstrated.

That asymmetry between jurisdictions is a feature, not a bug, for climate litigants. Activist lawyers are choosing their terrain carefully, and state planning law offers ground that federal negligence doctrine does not.

The Greenwashing Reckoning

While duty of care arguments have struggled, a second front has opened with far greater commercial impact. ASIC's campaign against greenwashing in the financial sector produced the most consequential climate-related penalties in Australian legal history across 2024 and 2025. 

Mercer Superannuation was ordered to pay $11.3 million after admitting it made misleading statements about the sustainable credentials of its investment options. Vanguard Investments Australia followed, ordered to pay $12.9 million for misrepresenting ESG exclusionary screens applied to a bond fund with more than $1 billion under management. Active Super was penalised a further $10.5 million. ²

What the three cases share is a simple evidentiary problem: each company said it excluded certain industries from its sustainable options, and each invested in them anyway. The gap between published policy and actual portfolio was the violation. Under section 18 of the Australian Consumer Law, a statement does not need to be deliberately false to constitute misleading conduct. It only needs to create a false impression. 

Aspirational language, the vague promise of alignment with net zero, is now legally precarious unless it rests on a credible and documented methodology.

The activist litigation front produced a more mixed result. The Australian Centre for Corporate Responsibility's case against Santos over net zero pathway statements was heard in late 2024, with the Federal Court handing down its decision in February 2026. ⁵ 

The court found the allegations of misleading conduct were not made out. Santos' forward-looking climate statements, however contested their methodology, were found to have a reasonable basis. The decision is being closely studied by environmental law groups. It does not close the door on greenwashing claims against energy companies, but it narrows it considerably.

A separate first-of-its-kind greenwashing proceeding against a major energy company marketing a consumer product as carbon neutral was settled just before trial commenced, leaving no public precedent on how courts would assess carbon neutrality claims for retail products. Settlements of that kind, reached at the threshold of proceedings, suppress the very jurisprudence that future litigants need.

Directors in the Frame

The passage of mandatory climate disclosure legislation in September 2024 introduced the sharpest shift in corporate exposure. From January 2025, Australia's largest companies are required to prepare annual sustainability reports aligned with the International Sustainability Standards Board framework, filed as part of their statutory annual reports and subject to director sign-off. ⁴ 

Directors are legally responsible for the accuracy of those disclosures under the existing liability framework of the Corporations Act.

The legislation includes a modified liability window. For the period from July 2025 to June 2028, only ASIC, not private litigants, can bring action relating to Scope 3 emissions disclosures, scenario analysis, and transition plan statements. ⁴ 

The rationale was to give companies time to develop disclosure capability without being immediately exposed to class actions. After that window closes, private litigation becomes available for claims that climate disclosures were materially misleading.

Securities lawyers are already anticipating what that wave might look like. The first sustainability reports from Group 1 entities, covering the 2025 financial year, are due in 2026. Once those documents are in the public domain, plaintiff firms will compare disclosed transition plans against actual emissions trajectories, capital expenditure in fossil fuels, and public statements by executives. 

The distance between what a company says about its climate risk and what an investor later experiences as a financial loss is the territory where climate disclosure fraud claims will be built.

The Legislative Gap

Courts filling the space that legislation has not occupied creates its own tensions. The Sharma line of cases prompted debate about whether judges should be setting climate policy by default, when it is Parliament's role to do so. The courts have largely answered that question themselves, by refusing to extend duty of care to government emissions decisions. But in the process, they have handed corporations more clarity about where their exposure actually lies: not in novel tort, but in what they say publicly about their own conduct.

The Albanese government's Safeguard Mechanism reforms, tightening emissions baselines on Australia's largest industrial facilities, were designed partly to give the largest emitters a regulatory framework they could point to in litigation. Compliance with the Safeguard Mechanism is not, however, a defence to a greenwashing claim. A company can meet its regulatory baseline and still have misrepresented its net zero trajectory to investors. Those are separate legal questions.

Practitioners working across both domains note the irony: the legislative framework is most developed exactly where courts have been least willing to go, government emissions policy, and least developed where courts have been most active, corporate disclosure and planning approvals. That inversion shapes the strategy of every climate litigant in the country.

The International Dimension

Australian climate litigation does not develop in isolation. The International Court of Justice handed down its Advisory Opinion on state climate obligations on 23 July 2025, finding that customary international law imposes climate-related obligations on states beyond what treaty commitments specify. ⁷ 

The opinion is non-binding, but it gives advocates a body of international reasoning to introduce into domestic arguments, particularly in cases where administrative law review requires consideration of Australia's international obligations.

The 2025 Global Trends in Climate Change Litigation snapshot, produced by the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics, noted that the overall growth rate of climate litigation is stabilising as the field matures and more complex, targeted cases replace broader framework actions. ⁸ 

Australia's trajectory fits that pattern: the era of the landmark test case is giving way to sector-specific enforcement, disclosure liability, and strategic planning challenges.

What connects the Australian cases to comparable proceedings in the Netherlands and Germany is the same underlying pressure: legal systems built for a stable climate are being asked to respond to systemic disruption. The difference is that Australia lacks constitutional rights provisions, making courts more cautious about expanding common law duties into policy territory. 

That caution has disappointed climate advocates. It has not, however, stopped litigation. It has simply redirected it toward harder, more technical terrain.

What Comes Next

The appeal by the Torres Strait Islander applicants in Pabai is proceeding before the Full Federal Court. If the appellate bench finds differently on the duty question, the implications for Commonwealth climate policy would be immediate and profound. Even a partial reversal, on the adaptation obligations rather than the emissions targets, would open new liability pathways. That remains a significant legal risk on the government's horizon.

Greenwashing enforcement will intensify as the first mandatory sustainability reports land. ASIC has signalled it will not make greenwashing an explicit priority in 2026, but the agency has also been unambiguous that this does not represent a withdrawal from climate-related enforcement. The combination of mandatory disclosure and the existing penalties framework means any significant gap between what a company reports and what it actually does becomes a live legal question.

The courtroom has not solved the climate crisis. It was never going to. But it has done something more specific: it has changed the calculus of risk for boards, fund managers, and infrastructure developers across the country. 

In a nation where federal climate legislation has moved fitfully for three decades, that shift in corporate exposure may prove to be the most durable consequence of a long and expensive era of legal contest.

References

1. Human Rights Law Centre. (2025). Federal Court Determines the Commonwealth Owes No Duty of Care to Protect Torres Strait Islanders from Climate Change. HRLC Case Summary.

2. Australian Securities and Investments Commission. (2024). ASIC's Vanguard Greenwashing Action Results in Record $12.9 Million Penalty. ASIC Media Release.

3. Norton Rose Fulbright. (2019). Wrong Place at the Wrong Time: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Contribute to Coal Mine Refusal. Norton Rose Fulbright Insights.

4. DLA Piper. (2024). Key Elements of the New Australian Mandatory Climate-Related Reporting Requirements. DLA Piper Insights.

5. Ashurst. (2026). Climate Litigation in Australia: Key Developments in 2025 and What's Ahead for 2026. Ashurst Insights.

6. Corrs Chambers Westgarth. (2025). Pabai Decision: Federal Court Finds No Duty of Care to Protect Torres Strait Islanders from Climate Change. Corrs Insights.

7. International Court of Justice. (2025). Advisory Opinion on the Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change. ICJ, July 2025.

8. Setzer, J. and Higham, C. (2025). Global Trends in Climate Change Litigation: 2025 Snapshot. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics.

9. ASIC. (2024). ASIC's First Greenwashing Case Results in Landmark $11.3 Million Penalty for Mercer. ASIC Media Release.

10. Gilbert + Tobin. (2025). Mandatory Climate-Related Financial Disclosure Has Commenced: What You Need to Know. Gilbert + Tobin Insights.

11. LexisNexis. (2025). Climate Litigation in Australia: Emerging Legal Duties for Lawyers. LexisNexis Insights.

12. Environmental Defenders Office. (2025). Pabai v Commonwealth of Australia. EDO Case Summary.

13. Lexology / Ashurst. (2025). Climate Litigation Is Shaping the Regulatory Landscape in Australia. Lexology.

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The Reckoning Comes to Coal Country: Australia's Regional Towns Stare Down the Stranded Asset Crisis - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Across regional Australia councils quietly scramble
as coal and gas revenues face irreversible decline

Key Points

Under current planning approvals, 32 of NSW's 39 coal mines are expected to close by 2040, directly threatening 25,000 jobs and the finances of every council in the Hunter and Central West regions. 1 BHP has committed to closing Mt Arthur Coal, NSW's largest mine, by 2030, leaving Muswellbrook facing economic and social upheaval with limited legally binding corporate obligations to the community. 2 The Latrobe Valley received over $1.6 billion in transition investment after Hazelwood closed in 2017, yet reporting transparency from the Latrobe Valley Authority has remained seriously deficient. 3 Auditor-general reports across Australian jurisdictions consistently identify shortfalls in mine rehabilitation bond provisions, leaving State governments and communities exposed to unfunded environmental liabilities. 4 NSW coal generates $2.7 billion in annual royalties, but no direct funding stream currently flows to mining-impacted communities for economic transformation planning. 5 Isaac Regional Council, Australia's largest resource region by area, has called for a formal Queensland Government authority to manage coal region transformation, signalling the scale of transition risk it cannot manage alone. 6

In Moranbah, Queensland, the town pub still fills on a Friday afternoon. The fly-in, fly-out rosters still tick over. The mines around the Bowen Basin still move coal. 

But inside the offices of Isaac Regional Council, the conversations have shifted. 

Council moved a motion at the Local Government Association of Queensland's annual conference last year calling on the State Government to establish a formal regional authority to manage what it called "transformational changes in coal mining regions". ⁶ 

For a Council that governs Australia's self-described largest resource region, that motion was not abstract advocacy. It was an admission that the forces reshaping global energy markets are moving faster than any single Local Government can absorb.

Stranded assets, so often framed as a problem for institutional investors and company balance sheets, lands differently on a rate roll. 

When a coal mine's assessed capital value falls, so does the rateable value the Council depends on. When a company mothballs or writes down assets, the Local Government area that built its roads, sewers, and sporting facilities on that rate base does not get a matching write-down of its obligations. 

The liability stays. The income does not.

Australia is entering a period in which that gap, between what resource-dependent councils owe and what they can collect, will become one of the defining fiscal pressures of regional governance. Few councils, and fewer State Governments, have stated this plainly.

The Scale of What Is Coming

The numbers in New South Wales alone are stark. Under existing planning approvals, all four of the 

tate's coal-fired power stations and 32 of its 39 coal mines are projected to close by 2040. ¹ 

Around 25,000 people work directly in NSW coal mining. When indirect employment, contractors, logistics, and the hospitality and retail that follows mine wages around is included, the Hunter Valley region alone faces the potential loss of close to 50,000 direct and indirect jobs over the next two decades. ⁷

NSW coal generated $2.7 billion in royalties for the State Government in the 2025 financial year and $23.4 billion in export revenue. ⁵ 

Almost none of that royalty flows directly back to the councils whose roads carry the coal trucks, whose hospitals treat the miners, or whose water systems serve the towns built around extraction. The NSW Government's own Royalties for Rejuvenation scheme, which directed funds back to coal communities, was effectively frozen under the previous Liberal-National Government, with more than $100 million sitting unspent while councils deferred maintenance and watched their infrastructure backlogs grow.

Queensland presents a different but related picture. Isaac Regional Council covers 58,709 square kilometres of central Queensland coalfields, encompassing towns such as Moranbah, Dysart, Middlemount, and Glenden. Its rate base is overwhelmingly tied to mining sector ratepayers. The Council's financial statements for the year ended June 2024 reveal a remediation provision of more than $38 million, an obligation growing steadily each year. ⁸ 

The Council's broader financial sustainability depends on mining rates income remaining at or near current levels. No publicly available document maps what happens to that budget if two or three major Bowen Basin mines reduce production or close within the same five-year window.

Muswellbrook: A Town That Knows the Clock Is Running

Of all the towns facing a defined countdown, Muswellbrook in the Upper Hunter Valley of NSW is the most legible. BHP has committed to transitioning its Mt Arthur Coal mine, NSW's largest, to closure by 2030. ² 

The mine currently employs around 2,200 people. Many live locally. It has shaped the town since the 1960s. When University of Newcastle researchers from the Institute for Regional Futures spoke to 69 community members between March and December 2024, the responses carried a quality that no economic impact statement captures. "We're not going anywhere. We love our house and our land," one participant said. Another: "I'm gonna get carried out of here in a box, too."

The researchers published their findings in late 2025, urging BHP to leave a positive and lasting legacy and recommending a place-based, community-endorsed closure strategy. ² 

The language of the report is careful. It does not say BHP's existing commitments are sufficient. It says the community has hopes. That distinction matters. The question of whether BHP's transition commitments to Muswellbrook Shire Council are legally binding obligations or reputational statements remains, for practical purposes, unanswered in any public document. Planning approval conditions can bind companies to rehabilitation timelines. They rarely bind them to employment outcomes, school maintenance contributions, or community fund continuity after closure.

The asymmetry here is structural. A company can disclose in its sustainability report that it is committed to a just transition. It can also, without breaching that statement, reduce its workforce progressively over five years, shift contractors off-site, and allow community sponsorships to lapse. By the time formal closure arrives, the economic drawdown has already occurred. Muswellbrook's central business district will not register that loss on a single date.

The Rehabilitation Bond Problem

Running alongside the employment question is one that receives even less public attention: who pays for the mess. Mine rehabilitation in Australia is supposed to be funded by bonds held by State governments, calibrated to cover the full cost of restoring land to a safe condition after operations cease. The calibration has, across multiple jurisdictions and repeated audits, been found wanting.

Auditor-general reports across Australian jurisdictions have consistently identified shortfalls between the bonds held and the true cost of rehabilitation. ⁴ 

Queensland's Mine Rehabilitation Commissioner, in the 2024-25 annual report, tracks the industry-wide Environmental Rehabilitation Cost liability as a figure that has grown substantially since 2019, with progressive rehabilitation performance across coal mines persistently lagging behind what mine plans projected. ⁹ 

Queensland has, by its own account, achieved only one successful coal mine lease surrender under contemporary environmental regulations. That is one completed rehabilitation, against a field of dozens of operating mines, many of which have no publicly stated closure date.

If bonds are inadequate and rehabilitation costs fall to State governments, the fiscal consequences reach beyond environment departments. They reach the councils in those communities, which may find themselves managing degraded landscapes and reduced rateable land values for decades after the mines close. The cost does not disappear. It disperses.

The Latrobe Valley: A Lesson in What Sufficient Funding Looks Like, and Doesn't

The most studied transition case in Australian history remains the Latrobe Valley in Victoria, where the Hazelwood power station closed without warning in March 2017, eliminating around 750 direct jobs and triggering a cascade of secondary employment losses. The Victorian State Government responded by establishing the Latrobe Valley Authority and committing, over subsequent years, to more than $1.6 billion in programs and infrastructure investment. ³ 

Regional Development Victoria reports that employment in Gippsland is now higher than it was a decade ago, and that an economic growth reimbursement scheme supported 374 businesses and created 1,156 jobs.

ANU researchers who evaluated the transition in its first three years found "promising initial progress," noting that the programme worked best where it combined proactive industry policy, respectful community engagement, and adequately funded coordinated investment. ¹⁰ 

Those conditions, the authors stressed, needed to be in place simultaneously. Any one of them alone was insufficient.

But the Latrobe Valley transition also reveals the fragility of political commitment. The Latrobe Valley Authority's reporting transparency was subsequently criticised in a Victorian parliamentary committee inquiry, which noted that no community performance report had been published since 2019 despite the LVA being funded to deliver ongoing transition support. State opposition members cited an inability to assess whether job creation targets were being met or whether the programme had achieved its stated goals. 

A transition funded at scale still depends on institutions that are accountable and transparent about outcomes. When accountability lapses, community confidence in the process erodes precisely when it is most needed.

The Policy Gap: Royalties, Risk, and Responsibility

The NSW Government launched its Future Jobs and Investment Authority in June 2025, backed by $27.3 million over four years and a mandate to work across the Hunter, Central West, Illawarra, and North West regions. ¹ The authority will also unlock the previously frozen Royalties for Rejuvenation funds. It is, on paper, a serious institutional response. Mandatory three-year mine closure notifications will now require operators to give communities and governments advance warning before shutting down.

Whether $27.3 million across four years, covering four distinct regions and potentially dozens of closing mines, is adequate to the scale of the task is a question the   Government has not answered directly. The Hunter Valley's own advocacy body estimated in September 2025 that the closure of just two mines by 2030 would eliminate close to 12,000 direct and indirect jobs in the region alone. ⁷ 

The arithmetic is uncomfortable. The funding envelope, against that employment exposure, is not a transition programme. It is a planning exercise.

Royalties sit at the centre of this problem. In NSW, mining royalties exceeded $3 billion in the 2025-26 State budget. ⁵ 

Communities in coal regions host the operations, bear the noise, the dust, the road wear, and the social complexity of transient workforces, and contribute decisively to a State revenue stream that flows overwhelmingly to consolidated revenue in Sydney. The principle that a share of resource royalties should be retained in origin communities is not radical. It is routine in Western Australia, where Royalties for Regions redistributes a portion of State royalties back to regional areas. The NSW equivalent was allowed to stagnate. 

Councils like those in the Hunter Valley pursued FOI requests, submitted motions to the Local Government NSW annual conference, and lobbied through the Hunter Joint Organisation for a dedicated community transformation fund. What they received was a $27.3 million authority and an unlocked legacy fund.

Workers and the Invisible Countdown

Behind the fiscal arguments, the human exposure is different in character. A coal miner in the Bowen Basin or Upper Hunter with fifteen years of tenure is often in their forties, carrying a mortgage on a house whose value is tied to the mine that pays it, and accumulating superannuation entitlements that assume continued employment to retirement. Redundancy at 48, in a regional town where alternative employment at equivalent wages does not exist, is a financial event with consequences that ripple through decades, not years.

Research on the social impacts of mine closures in comparable settings, including the Hazelwood closure studies and international literature on Appalachian coal communities, consistently identifies elevated mental health presentations, increased financial counselling demand, and rising domestic violence incidents in the period immediately following major closures or significant workforce reductions. 

The causal pathway is not mysterious. Financial stress, loss of occupational identity, and community population decline interact in ways that primary health networks in resource regions are already, in many cases, under-resourced to manage.

The fly-in, fly-out workforce complicates the picture. A significant proportion of workers at any given Bowen Basin mine live not in Moranbah or Dysart but in Mackay, Townsville, or Brisbane. When the mine closes, they do not leave a ghost town behind. They vanish from that community's payroll without ever having appeared in its census figures. 

The towns that will feel the closure most severely are those with the highest proportion of resident workers, long-tenure families, and locally-owned businesses that depend on foot traffic from mine wages. Identifying those towns with precision, before the closure, is precisely the kind of modelling that no State Government has publicly released.

What Accountability Would Actually Look Like

A coherent accountability framework for stranded asset risk in Australian Local Government does not currently exist. Councils in coal and gas regions are not required to disclose to ratepayers the proportion of their rate base derived from resource sector ratepayers, the contingency scenarios they have modelled for revenue decline, or the infrastructure backlog they are carrying against an uncertain revenue future. 

Listed companies with equivalent concentration risks face mandatory disclosure under ASX continuous disclosure obligations and, from January 2025, mandatory climate-related financial disclosure requirements. Councils do not.

Community benefit agreements between mining companies and Local Governments or State agencies are, in most cases in Australia, not publicly registered, not independently monitored, and not enforceable in a manner that has ever been successfully tested in court. The commitments companies make at the time of project approval, to local employment, community funds, infrastructure maintenance, often sit in planning approval conditions that are monitored, if at all, by resources departments with limited capacity and lower political priority.

Isaac Regional Council's call for a Queensland regional authority to manage transformation represents an acknowledgement that Local Government, on its own, cannot hold the pieces together. ⁶ 

Muswellbrook's residents, speaking to researchers who asked them plainly what they hoped for, said they wanted industry to leave a positive legacy. Not as charity. As obligation. That language, legacy as obligation, is the gap between where Australian policy currently sits and where it needs to arrive.

The Reckoning

The stranded asset crisis in Australia's coal and gas towns is not a future event to be modelled. It is an unfolding process, unevenly distributed across communities that have little capacity to manage it alone and governments that have, in most cases, not yet told them the full shape of what is coming. The German coal transition committed EUR 40 billion over 20 years to the Ruhr and Lausitz regions, building new infrastructure, retraining workers, and cushioning the fiscal collapse of municipalities that had been built around extraction. Australia's current commitments are not in that register.

What happens to a town when its major employer closes is not a mystery. The Latrobe Valley documented it. Appalachian communities in the United States documented it. Regional cities in the Ruhr documented it. The pattern, depopulation, infrastructure deterioration, health system pressure, property value decline, school enrolment shrinkage, is well established in the evidence base. The question for Australia is not what happens. 

The question is whether State and Federal Governments will choose, before the closures arrive at scale, to make legally enforceable commitments proportionate to the scale of the disruption. 

The towns are already deciding. The governments have not.

References

1. NSW Government. 2025. Future Jobs and Investment Authority Model to Secure Jobs and Economic Opportunities in Coal Mining Communities. NSW Government Media Release.

2. Askland, H. et al. 2025. We're Not Going Anywhere: Muswellbrook Faces Transition Beyond Coal Head On. University of Newcastle Institute for Regional Futures.

3. Regional Development Victoria. 2025. Latrobe Valley Economic Transition. Victorian Government.

4. Discovery Alert. 2025. Queensland Mine Rehabilitation: Complete 2025 Guide. Discovery Alert.

5. Hunter Joint Organisation. 2025. Post Mining Land Use: 2025-26 Advocacy Factsheet. Hunter Joint Organisation of Councils.

6. Isaac Regional Council. 2024. Queensland's Largest Mining Council Calls for Regional Authority to Manage Transformation. Isaac Regional Council Media Release.

7. Clayton Utz. 2026. A New Chapter: What the NSW Coal Industry 2026-50 Policy Means for the Future of Coal Mining in New South Wales. Clayton Utz Insights.

8. Isaac Regional Council. 2024. Financial Statements for the Year Ended 30 June 2024. Isaac Regional Council.

9. Queensland Mine Rehabilitation Commissioner. 2025. 2024-25 Annual Report. Queensland Government.

10. Wiseman, J., Workman, A., Fastenrath, S., and Jotzo, F. 2020. After the Hazelwood Coal Fired Power Station Closure: Latrobe Valley Regional Transition Policies and Outcomes 2017-2020. ANU Crawford School of Public Policy.

11. NSW Government. 2024. $37.7 Million to Support Regional Communities and Protect Workers. NSW Budget 2024-25 Media Release.

12. Bland Shire Council. 2025. Bland Shire Council Seeks Support for Return of Mining Royalties to Local Communities. Bland Shire Council Media Release.

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