A nature-based food revolution - Julian Cribb

Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

AUTHOR Julian Cribb AM ATSE is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency.  He is Co-founder, Council for the Human Future.  Julian Cribb's latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

Forget AI. The technological advance that will save the most human lives is being led by two million Indian farmers, who are pioneering advanced natural food production in a revolutionary movement that is spreading almost by the hour.

An overfed but badly-nourished, global society has largely forgotten what it means to go hungry. 

So long as supermarket shelves are a-bulge with empty industrial calories laced with petrochemicals, people tend to forget that no human or community can last long without good food.  

A super-El Nino bearing down on the world’s agriculture threatens to reinforce the lesson.

The global food crisis has been building steadily for two decades. It is driven by massive uncontrolled soil loss, growing water scarcity, failing farm ecosystems, overuse of poisons, declining nutritional value of food and a climate running rapidly beyond the realm of technical solution.

In India, where climate-driven famines have occurred frequently over thousands of years, the hard-learned lesson that food comes first has not been lost. 

A farmers group called Andhra Pradesh Community Managed Natural Farming (APCNF) has received the world’s largest environmental award, the Food Planet Prize 2026, for developing and sharing a new model of science-backed agroecology aimed at securing both food production and the environment that supports it.

Driven primarily by women’s groups, the Andra Pradesh farming revolution began with just 11 farms in 2018. Thanks to 10,000 eager volunteer trainers it has been taken up by over 1.8 million small farms in 21 Indian States in under a decade.

The AP model has already been shared with farmers in Zambia, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, with Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria and the DRCongo due to follow shortly. The plan is to extend it worldwide by the mid 2030s.

Unlike a good many ‘natural farming’ movements, the Andra Pradesh model is science-driven, fusing state-of-the-art soil and plant science and microbiology with traditional methods and widely-accepted principles of natural farming.

In essence, the AP approach gets soil microbes to do the heavy lifting. These are used to restore lost fertility, build nutrient cycling and boost carbon storage while also improving the aeration and water penetration of the soils, leading to better, more nutritious and drought-resistant crops in harsh climate times. They eliminate the need for toxic chemicals and reduce the need for industrial fertiliser.

While it has strong support from India’s State and Federal Governments the lynchpin of the project’s success are hundreds of women’s self-help groups, who ensure local ownership by participating communities. At local level the program seeks to engage 10-15 per cent of village farms in the first year and reach over 80% by years 3-5.

At its heart, the AP model uses year-round cover crops to protect the soil, promote microbial activity, prevent weeds, end chemical use, rebuild soil fertility and structure, and conserve more moisture to ‘droughtproof’ farms. More than 30 different crops are grown, from grains and legumes to leafy vegetables, cover crops and soil improvers. 

The technique has been refined for farming at every scale from kitchen garden and smallholdings up to tenant farms and commercial operations. Above all, it is designed to deliver a viable livelihood to poor farmers with only a few hundred square metres of arable land, who can start earning income within 15 days. In practice, farm incomes were found to improve by between 19-36% in the first year.

While it might look like a case of ‘high science/low technology’ the AP method does not shun recent technical innovations such as the use of drones for farm planning and seeding. It uses sophisticated innoculants to re-establish complex soil biology in dying soils. 

Also, unlike most modern farming methods, the AP approach focuses strongly on the nutritional value of the crops being grown, especially for the families growing them. In other words, it sees farming as being about healthy food – not as the neglected limb of an uncaring industrial machine focussed purely on money.

This represents an important departure from traditional western agro-industry, with its focus on bulk commodities of declining nutritional value, health and safety – one from which more and more western farmers, shackled to corporate food, increasingly wish to break free.

The US$1.5 million Curt Bergfors Food Planet Prize will go towards opening up more demonstration sites worldwide for the AP natural farming model, adapting it to local conditions and farmer needs, to building new scientific partnerships, establishing a natural farming leadership course and training a cadre of “farmer-scientists” able to measure the results they achieve scientifically.

The salient aspect of the Andra Pradesh project is that it is not alone. Worldwide the regenerative farming and food movement is mushrooming as farmers abandon the toxic, mechanical systems of yesterday. Worth an estimated $17 billion in 2026, ‘regen; is forecast to reach $50bn by the early 2030s, due to rising farmer and consumer demand.

Whether such a scale-up can feed a hungry planet of 9 billion people, beset by climate crisis, resource loss and mass extinction remains doubtful – unless at the same time there is success in voluntarily lowering the human populationcloser to what the Earth can actually carry long-term. The fact that women are leading both global movements – family planning and regenerative food – gives grounds for sober hope that a collapse in human society can be defrayed, and that female intelligence will prevail over male hubris.

While the masculine techno boosters hail developments such as Artificial Intelligence, robotics and biotech as the next big frontiers in technology, regenerative and renewable food are arguably far more significant to the human destiny – and to the fate of every individual living on Earth.

After all, nobody can eat AI, robots or corporate dollars. Nor can those alone protect and restore a habitable planet for our grandchildren.

Julian Cribb Articles

• When the Earth's well runs dry...
• The Coming Famine
• The greatest threat to global security
• Turning Waste Into Wealth
• Up to our eyeballs in 💩💩💩
• Plasticide: a crime against humanity Our Rising Oceans
• Will climate change put women in the ascendant?
• When the water runs out...
• The great dying
• Australia issues ‘terrifying’ climate warning
• 'Died of a delusion': the fate of modern civilisation?
• Collapse is near, scientists warn
• De-icing the Earth: a fatal human choice. 
• Rivers of Death
• Unlike politicians, thermometers do not lie
• Welcome to BunkerWorld: Home of the rich and fearful
• Wisdom of the elders
• The black work of Big Oil
• Stealing the Breath of Life
• The Earth Uncloaked - a catastrophe in slow motion 
  
• Military experts warn of climate wars
• Tackling the Earth Emergency
• A distracted world marches steadily towards catastrophe

Coal and gas giants spending tens of millions on programs in schools and children's sport - ABC

ABC — Senior Political Correspondent Jake Evans

A report has identified more than 260 mining-backed programs in children's settings, saying taken together it shows a network of influence on young people. (Glencore/Comms Declare)

In Short

A new report has identified a network of more than 260 coal, oil and gas-sponsored programs in childhood settings. Comms Declare says it paints a picture of an "extensive industry presence" in schools and children's sport, including direct teaching by mining companies and partners in some instances. Greens and independent senators say questions over whether more transparency and guardrails for industry-sponsored education should be examined through a senate inquiry.

Coal, oil and gas companies are spending tens of millions of dollars on programs in childhood settings, with a new report revealing the scale of investments by the resources industry to lift its brand and influence.
A network of more than 260 teaching programs, children's sport club sponsorships, partnerships with educational institutions and more has been funded by Santos, Shell, Chevron, BHP and other mining companies, climate advocacy group Comms Declare has identified.
Researchers found more than $50 million had been spent by mining companies in just six of those programs, suggesting far more is being spent by the industry across school and youth institutions.
While some are branding deals, such as Woodside Nippers in WA, others are years-long partnerships, like Queensland Museum's climate education program supported by Shell QGC, multi-day camps or mining site tours, or teaching training courses.
Many of those programs have helped to drive jobs for young people, particularly in regional areas, and prop up community organisations struggling for funding. Governments also expect the highly profitable sector to reinvest in the communities that it operates.
But the report says there are no dedicated oversight mechanisms for industry partnerships in childhood settings, few disclosure requirements for sponsorship arrangements involving schools and in some cases, little governance over how industries engage with children under those partnerships.
"A child may recognise that a television commercial is trying to sell them something. They are far less likely to view information provided by a teacher, museum educator, sporting coach or educational institution through the same lens," researchers said.
"Viewed individually, many of these programs may appear limited in scope. Viewed collectively, they reveal an extensive industry presence across the environments in which children learn, play and grow."

Comms Declare identified a number of partnerships between industry and schools, many of which are state-supported. (Comms Declare)

Lesson plans provided by mining industry

The report also raises questions over the quality of education available through some of the teaching resources offered to classrooms.
"Some educational programs and materials reviewed for this report presented climate impacts while giving limited attention to the role of fossil fuel production in driving those impacts," researchers said.
"In several cases, climate change was framed primarily through adaptation, technological responses or individual behaviour."
Comms Declare pointed to Woodside-supported teaching materials as one example.
The researchers cite a Woodside Australian Science Project (WASP) resource that says "while we often think that greenhouse gas emissions are only from industrial activities, we all contribute to the global carbon footprint", which then guides children "at length" to consider their contribution to global warming by how they get to school, without mentioning that CO2 emissions are primarily driven by the use of coal, oil and gas.
A 2021 corporate report by Woodside said its WASP project had reached 12,300 children "in-classroom" and provided professional development to thousands of teachers, and said of the early-career educators it had engaged, "100 per cent of pre-service teachers intend to use WASP resources in their classroom".
Woodside told the ABC it did not provide content for the education programs it helps to fund, and the specific content was a matter for the funding recipients that delivered those programs.

Comms Declare says many of the programs it identified provided valuable services to in-need communities. (Santos/Comms Declare)

In Queensland, a program called Oresome Resources, supported by the Queensland Resources Council, offers to "take the pressure off lesson planning" with material provided through its education arm, the Queensland Minerals and Energy Academy.
The council says Oresome Resources recorded more than 43,500 users this financial year, and all its workshops align with the Australian curriculum and are developed by educators with a science education background, and that the site's lessons are regularly reviewed and updated.
Some of the materials, however, appear not to have been updated since 2010.
The site acknowledges some materials provide a "point of view of the minerals and energy sector", such as a PowerPoint presentation on the advantages and disadvantages of different energy sources that describes solar power as "not reliable" because it is not always sunny and the "cost of power is high", while saying one advantage of solar is its "limited CO2 emissions".
Coal, the presentation says, provides "income from exports" and is a "source of cheap, reliable electricity", while noting it emits air pollutants such as carbon dioxide and uses large amounts of water.

An infographic on wind turbines, which emphasises that renewables production depends on coal, produced by the Queensland Resources Council and provided to students through Oresome Resources. (Oresome Resources)

Queensland Resources Council chief executive Janette Hewson said the minerals and energy academy was a partnership between the state government and industry that was highly regarded, and funded by successive governments over its 20-year history.
The academy says students at schools it has partnered with are three times more likely to pursue an apprenticeship in mining, and also more likely to pursue study in engineering or related fields at university.
A previous report by Comms Declare in 2025 identified a Queensland Museum program supported by Shell QGC that encouraged students to design their own carbon capture and storage technology, which was removed for review following that report.

Demand for senate inquiry

Greens early childhood spokesperson Steph Hodgins-May said resources companies were spending money in order to exert influence.
"I can't imagine if my son came home from school, or my daughter said they had been dressed up in a Santos T-shirt and were learning about oil from a corporation who, you know, makes billions of dollars off Australia's resources, pays very little tax and is frankly in there to build their social licence," Senator Hodgins-May said.
"Profits are their bottom line. If they are spending money on a program, they need to be able to demonstrate to their shareholders that there is a return on that — and I don't blame the corporations, they are going to do what they can do to make money, but I blame the government.
"I find it extraordinary that there has been no oversight over this for so long; we think it urgently demands a Senate inquiry."

Steph Hodgins-May will advocate for the issue to be referred to a senate inquiry. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)

Comms Declare said many of the sponsorship arrangements it reviewed provided genuine and valuable services within under-resourced communities.
But the researchers said the partnerships raised broader questions about whether existing transparency and accountability mechanisms were sufficient.
A 2020 review of school banking programs by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission, prompted by revelations that Commonwealth Bank staff had fraudulently activated children's Dollarmites accounts to meet sales targets, found young children were "vulnerable consumers" being exposed to sophisticated marketing tactics.
Its rulings resulted in some banking programs being removed from schools.
Independent senator David Pocock said vested interests should not be trusted to provide education without oversight.
"These are companies that have a track record of trying to shape the public understanding of climate change, of trying to shape the public debate around climate change," Senator Pocock said.
"We don't allow tobacco companies to go into schools and teach about respiratory health, or whatever it might be. This is something we have got to be looking at.

David Pocock says companies with vested interests should not be teaching their own material. (ABC News: Adam Kennedy)

"They engage in children's education and all these programs to try and shape what young people are learning and understand about the gas industry and fossil fuels in Australia."
The senator added that schools should be properly funded to provide education themselves, rather than having to rely on industry to step in.

How Climate Change Is Pushing Australia's Trees Past the Point of Survival - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Climate change is pushing Australia's native trees
toward biological limits across every forest type

Key Points

Drought-stressed eucalypts are losing more than three quarters of their hydraulic capacity before canopy collapse begins.[1] Snow gum treelines advanced only where fire stayed away, with saplings largely absent from burnt alpine ground.[4] Alpine ash forests need two decades to mature, yet repeated mega-fires are burning stands before seed reserves rebuild.[7] Mountain ash carrying capacity is falling by nine per cent for every degree of warming already recorded.[9]

Australia's forests face an accelerating biological crisis as global temperatures climb. 

Eucalypts, alpine ash, snow gums and Gondwanan rainforest relics all show measurable signs of stress. 

Investigators are now tracing these changes to hydraulic failure, altered fire regimes and expanding pathogens.

This investigation examines recent Australian tree research from universities, CSIRO and government agencies. It traces physiological collapse from northern savanna woodlands to Tasmanian wilderness rainforest. 

The evidence points toward structural, ecological and economic consequences still unfolding.

Physiological Stress and Hydraulic Failure

Eucalypt species rely on stomatal closure to survive extreme heat, but this defence carries a cost. Researchers studying the 2019 eastern drought found dieback trees had lost between 78 and 100 per cent of hydraulic conductivity. That scale of xylem embolism marks catastrophic hydraulic failure rather than ordinary water stress.^[1]

Western Australia's jarrah and marri forests showed similarly uneven damage during the record 2023 to 2024 heatwave and drought. University of Western Australia researchers combined satellite imagery with groundwater and soil data across the South West. Trees on shallow, rocky ground with little groundwater access suffered the most severe die-off.^[3]

A second mechanism compounds hydraulic failure across drought-affected forests. Prolonged stomatal closure starves trees of carbon needed for metabolic and defensive functions. Scientists now treat hydraulic failure and this carbon starvation as interdependent drivers of Australian eucalypt mortality.^[2]

Together these findings reframe eucalypt resilience as finite rather than limitless. Species long assumed to tolerate Australian extremes are approaching measurable physiological ceilings. Forest managers now face pressure to identify which stands are closest to that threshold.

Ecosystem Shifts and Range Contraction

Snow gum treelines in the Victorian Alps were tracked across sixteen years at four mountains. Seedling recruitment advanced upslope only in areas that stayed unburnt during that period. After fire swept through, researchers found no saplings establishing above the treeline at all.^[4]

Tasmania's Gondwanan rainforest relics face a parallel contraction driven by drying conditions. Fire scientists describe a steady rise in lightning-ignited bushfires across the island's cool, wet west. These blazes threaten pencil pines and myrtle beech stands that evolved for a climate now retreating.^[5]

Southwest Western Australia has recorded measurable rainfall decline over four decades of climate change. Reduced water availability, combined with rising temperatures and evaporation, is accelerating dieback across the region's eucalypt forests. Consultants increasingly attribute chronic canopy decline directly to this drying trend.^[6]

Northern Australian savannas face a different range pressure from invasive gamba grass. This African species burns up to eight times hotter than native grasses, killing fire-sensitive trees outright. Surviving canopy gaps then invite further grass invasion, turning open woodland into flammable grassland.^[10]

Altered Fire Regimes and Regeneration Failure

Alpine ash regenerates exclusively from seed released by fire, a strategy known as obligate seeding. Young trees need roughly twenty years to reach reproductive maturity and rebuild canopy seed stores. Fires returning faster than that interval can wipe out a stand's entire regeneration capacity.^[7]

The Black Summer fires of 2019 and 2020 struck many alpine ash stands still recovering from earlier blazes. Ecologists warn some regions have now burnt so often that local extinction becomes plausible. Modelling efforts are underway to identify which remaining stands most urgently need protection.^[7]

Montane forest studies link drought conditions directly to more severe wildfire outcomes at high elevation. Obligate seeder species prove particularly vulnerable when short fire intervals prevent a viable canopy seedbank forming. Resprouting species such as snow gum fare comparatively better, though repeated fire still reshapes their structure.^[7]

These regeneration failures represent a structural shift rather than a temporary setback. Forests once defined by predictable fire cycles are entering unfamiliar territory. Land managers increasingly describe some alpine ecosystems as approaching ecological collapse.

Pests, Pathogens and Biotic Threats

Myrtle rust arrived in New South Wales in 2010 and spread rapidly along the eastern seaboard. The fungus now infects Myrtaceae across New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. Government scientists consider eradication no longer feasible anywhere in Australia.^[8]

At least fifteen rainforest tree species now face extinction risk in the wild from myrtle rust infection alone. Myrtaceae make up Australia's largest plant family, spanning eucalypts, tea trees and paperbarks. A pathogen this widespread therefore threatens forest structure well beyond any single species.^[8]

Phytophthora dieback remains a longstanding threat across Western Australian jarrah forest and heathland. Drying conditions and reduced soil moisture appear to be reshaping how and where this pathogen spreads. Land managers already treat Phytophthora management as inseparable from broader drought and thinning strategy.^[6]

Underground, warming and aridity are placing new pressure on tree root systems and their fungal partners. Mycorrhizal networks help native trees access water and nutrients through drought and disturbance. Disruption to these partnerships could compound every other stress documented across Australian forests.

Carbon Sequestration and Biomass Dynamics

Mountain ash forests store between 415 and 819 tonnes of carbon per hectare, more than the Amazon. Half a century of Victorian forest data now shows warming is steadily reducing how many trees these stands can support. Each additional degree of warming cuts tree carrying capacity by roughly nine per cent.^[9]

Researchers project a three degree rise by 2080 could shrink mountain ash carrying capacity by 24 per cent. That decline equates to losing roughly 240,000 hectares of mature forest carbon stock. Regeneration failure after severe fire could push losses beyond this estimate.^[9]

These figures carry consequences far beyond forestry accounting or biodiversity reporting alone. Australia's national emissions targets rely partly on forests continuing to sequester carbon reliably. A shrinking carbon sink undermines that assumption at exactly the moment climate policy depends on it most.

Governments have monitored these pressures for years without matching investment in forest resilience programs. Scientists studying jarrah, alpine ash and mountain ash all describe similar structural warnings. The accountability gap between documented risk and funded protection remains stubbornly wide.

Australian trees are recording climate change through physiological damage that scientists can now measure directly. Hydraulic failure, fire-driven regeneration collapse and expanding pathogens are converging across jarrah, alpine ash and mountain ash forests alike.

These are structural shifts rather than isolated events confined to a single drought or fire season. Carbon-dense old-growth forests face mounting risk precisely when their storage capacity matters most for national climate targets.

Accountability now rests with governments and land managers who hold the evidence but have been slow to fund large-scale protection. Australia's forests are signalling distress well ahead of the policies meant to safeguard them.

References 

1. Hydraulic failure and tree size linked with canopy die-back in eucalypt forest during extreme drought . New Phytologist study documenting xylem embolism levels behind 2019 eastern Australian eucalypt canopy dieback.

2. Canopy dieback and recovery in Australian native forests following extreme drought . Scientific Reports research on hydraulic failure and carbon starvation as interdependent drought mortality mechanisms.

3. Study reveals impact of extreme heat and drought on Australia's jarrah forests . University of Western Australia research linking shallow soils and groundwater access to uneven jarrah forest die-off.

4. Alpine treeline ecotone stasis in the face of recent climate change and disturbance by fire . PLOS ONE study tracking snow gum treeline recruitment across sixteen years in the Victorian Alps.

5. Tasmania's forests are burning more as climate change dries them out . The Conversation analysis of rising lightning-ignited fire threatening Tasmania's Gondwanan rainforest refugia.

6. Dieback and Tree Decline . Shire of Mundaring information on rainfall decline, drought and Phytophthora dieback across southwest Western Australia.

7. Can we keep Australia's endangered alpine ash on the map? . The Conversation report on obligate seeder biology and repeated Black Summer fire impacts on alpine ash survival.

8. Myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) . Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water overview of myrtle rust spread and species risk.

9. Climate change is driving a silent, sinister change in Australia's mountain ash forests . The Conversation summary of research showing mountain ash carrying capacity and carbon storage declining with warming.

10. Gamba Grass . Weeds Australia profile detailing gamba grass fire intensity and its impact on native tree cover in northern savanna.

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Heat, Ticks and Bushfires: The New Climate Threats Facing Australia's Pets - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

NSW data show heat-related illness kills almost a quarter of affected dogs.[1] Paralysis tick habitat is projected to expand south toward Melbourne.[3] RSPCA warns bushfire intensity threatens companion animals each summer.[6] The AVA now treats climate change as an animal welfare emergency.[9]

Rising heat and disasters are reshaping the health of Australia's family pets.
Dogs and cats share Australian homes with families across capital cities, coastal towns and inland regions. 
Their bodies and everyday behaviour are increasingly tested by a warming, more volatile climate. 
Veterinarians, animal charities and university researchers are now documenting the cumulative strain in detail.
This investigation examines five fronts where climate change is reaching directly into the family pet's daily life. 
It covers heat stress, disease spread, disaster displacement, behavioural change and the policy response taking shape. Together they reveal a welfare challenge that is still gathering pace across the country.^[9]

Heat Stress and Physical Health
Heatwaves push the thermoregulation systems of dogs and cats well past safe physiological limits. Unlike humans, dogs rely mainly on panting rather than sweating to release excess body heat. Cats often hide quietly during heat stress, masking distress until illness becomes advanced and harder to treat.
A New South Wales study spanning two decades of veterinary records found 119 confirmed heat-related illness cases in dogs. Almost a quarter of the affected animals died from the condition despite treatment. Large, obese and brachycephalic dogs consistently faced the steepest risk of a fatal outcome.^[1]
Flat-faced breeds such as bulldogs, pugs and French bulldogs struggle hardest to cope with rising temperatures. Their narrow airways restrict airflow, undermining the panting response that dogs depend on for cooling. Demand for these breeds has grown steadily even as Australian heatwave severity continues to increase.^[2]
Repeated, non-fatal episodes of heat exhaustion can leave lasting organ and tissue damage in surviving dogs. Urban pavement absorbs and radiates intense heat, scorching paws during otherwise routine summer exercise routines. Veterinary researchers describe coat thickness, body weight and advanced age as compounding hazards during extreme conditions.^[2]

Vector-Borne Diseases and Parasites
Climate modelling indicates the eastern paralysis tick's geographic range may gradually shift south toward greater Melbourne. Warmer, wetter conditions developing in southern regions could make the habitat newly suitable for the species. The tick already kills a significant number of dogs and cats annually along the eastern seaboard.^[3]
Separate ecological modelling projects the tick's range extending into Tasmania and parts of Western Australia by 2050. Researchers link part of the spread to the transport of infested pets beyond traditionally endemic zones. Coastal population density across the eastern states compounds the overall exposure risk for households.^[4]
Mild Australian winters allow mosquito populations to persist year round across many regions, sustaining heartworm transmission risk. Veterinary clinics now treat parasite prevention as a continuous baseline rather than a seasonal precaution. Missed monthly doses can leave pets dangerously exposed during unexpected warm spells in cooler months.^[5]
Extended flea seasons aggravate flea allergy dermatitis, a genuinely painful skin condition affecting sensitive pets. Clinics report steady year-round demand for treatments once confined largely to warmer months of the year. Vaccination schedules and broader biosecurity protocols are adapting accordingly across Australian veterinary practice nationwide.^[5]

Extreme Weather and Emergency Displacement
Bushfires have grown more frequent and intense across Australian summers as hot, dry conditions persist longer. The RSPCA identifies companion animals among the most vulnerable creatures during these unpredictable events. Evacuation planning that genuinely accounts for pets remains uneven and inconsistent among Australian households.^[6]
Smoke inhalation from mega-fires affects respiratory health in both indoor and outdoor companion animals alike. Brachycephalic dogs and cats with existing airway conditions face significantly heightened danger during smoke haze events. Owners across affected regions are urged to monitor breathing closely whenever air quality deteriorates sharply.^[6]
Animal shelters face surging demand for emergency boarding during major floods and bushfires alike. Capacity limits force charities to coordinate across state borders for additional relief support and supplies. Clean water access and strict biosecurity become urgent priorities once floodwaters finally begin to subside.^[6]
Research into the 2015 Pinery bushfire in South Australia found strong owner attachment shaped evacuation outcomes for pets. Animals that survived the disaster often showed lasting behavioural change in the months afterward. Researchers argue preparedness planning must treat pets as genuine, core household members rather than afterthoughts.^[8]

Behavioural and Psychological Impacts
Prolonged indoor confinement during extended heatwaves can fuel anxiety and destructive behaviour in high-energy dog breeds. Restricted exercise removes a key outlet for accumulated stress and pent-up physical energy. Owners report increased chewing, pacing and vocalisation across consecutive hot spells lasting several days.
Rising ambient temperatures can also alter social interactions and aggression levels among ordinary domestic cats. Heat discomfort tends to reduce tolerance for handling, play and close physical contact generally. Behaviourists note withdrawal and irritability as common warm-weather patterns observed across many Australian households.
Climate-linked stress reaches well beyond cats and dogs into birds, pocket pets and reptile species too. Feather picking and altered feeding patterns can signal distress in companion birds during heat events. Reptiles depend heavily on stable thermal gradients that increasingly extreme weather patterns can seriously disrupt.
Emergency planning research shows owner stress during disasters often mirrors directly into measurable pet anxiety and fear responses. Emotional attachment to animals strongly shapes household evacuation decisions made during fast-moving bushfire emergencies. Communicators are urged to treat that bond as a genuine preparedness asset rather than an obstacle.^[7]

Veterinary Care and Policy Changes
The Australian Veterinary Association now recognises climate change as a serious threat to national animal health and welfare. The association acknowledges human activity as the primary driver behind this acceleration in risk. It calls on government to respond with coordinated, science-based policy action across jurisdictions.^[9]
Clinics are adapting emergency protocols to manage seasonal surges of heat-damaged animals presenting for urgent treatment. Some practices have pursued carbon-neutral certification while expanding capacity for extreme weather caseloads. Veterinary bodies increasingly frame sustainable practice as a core professional responsibility rather than an optional extra.^[9]
Australia's prudential regulator is modelling how climate-driven losses could affect general insurance affordability nationally through 2050. Rising claims costs and growing reinsurance pressures are already lifting household premiums across the country. Pet insurance providers face similar upward pressure stemming from broader veterinary cost inflation.^[10]
Local councils face growing calls to share practical climate-proofing guidance directly with suburban pet owners. Advice typically spans shade provision, reliable water access and well-stocked emergency evacuation kits for households. Veterinary groups argue these education campaigns are now an essential welfare investment for every council area.^[9]

Heat, Parasites, Disasters, Welfare
Australia's pets face a warming climate on several fronts at once. Heat illness, expanding parasite ranges and disaster displacement now intersect with measurable welfare costs. Veterinary records and ecological modelling confirm the trend is accelerating well beyond early projections.
Behavioural strain compounds the physical burden, often mirroring the stress carried by owners themselves. Shelters, clinics and insurers are adjusting, yet preparation remains inconsistent across households and regions. Governance gaps persist between veterinary advocacy and binding climate policy.
Genuine accountability requires councils, insurers and government to treat pet welfare as core climate planning. Families who build pets into emergency plans improve outcomes for the whole household.

References 
1. Incidence and risk factors of heat-related illness in dogs from New South Wales, Australia (1997-2017) . Australian Veterinary Journal study analysing two decades of confirmed canine heat-related illness cases.
2. Heat stress in domestic dogs: morphological and environmental risk factors for dog welfare in a warming world . Frontiers review of thermoregulation physiology and breed-specific heat vulnerability in dogs.
3. Climatic requirements of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, with a consideration of its possible geographic range up to 2090 . ScienceDirect modelling study projecting southward expansion of paralysis tick habitat under climate change.
4. Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050 . Scientific Reports analysis projecting tick range extension into Tasmania and Western Australia.
5. Hot weather, bugs and parasites . Vetwest Veterinary Clinics guidance on year-round flea, heartworm and tick risk in Australian conditions.
6. Caring for animals in bushfire season . RSPCA Australia advice on bushfire preparedness and risks to companion animals.
7. Does emotional closeness to pets motivate their inclusion in bushfire survival plans? . Australian Journal of Emergency Management research on owner attachment and bushfire preparedness.
8. Attachment, Bushfire Preparedness, Planning, and Response among Animal Guardians: A South Australian Case Study . Peer-reviewed case study of pet owners affected by the 2015 Pinery bushfire.
9. Climate change and animal health, welfare and production . Australian Veterinary Association policy on climate change as an animal welfare priority.
10. Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment . APRA modelling of climate-driven impacts on general insurance affordability in Australia to 2050.

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From Coal Country to Clean Energy Superpower: Australia's High-Stakes Transformation - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia holds the renewable resources to replace
fossil fuels and become a global clean energy leader

Key Points

AEMO's 2024 Integrated System Plan projects $122 billion in transmission upgrades will be required to enable 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2050.[1] Federal investment in retraining and economic diversification is essential for coal-dependent communities in the Hunter and Latrobe valleys, where structural unemployment looms.[4] Australia's National Climate Risk Assessment identifies biodiversity collapse as a critical systemic risk demanding urgent regulatory reform.[6] Free, prior and informed consent from Traditional Owners is a legal requirement for renewable energy projects on Native Title land.[8]

Australia exports more fossil fuels per capita than almost any comparable economy. 

The gap between its clean energy ambition and its continued fossil fuel expansion is a defining political tension. 

Trading partners in Europe and Asia are accelerating decarbonisation and reshaping demand.

The federal government has committed to an 82 per cent renewable electricity target by 2030. Meeting that target requires coordinated grid overhaul, industrial restructuring and ecosystem protection. 

The evidence shows governance must urgently match the scale of Australia's clean energy ambition.^[1]

Grid Infrastructure and Energy Export Transformation

Australia's electricity grid was designed for centralised coal generation and struggles to integrate distributed renewable sources. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) 2024 Integrated System Plan projects $122 billion in new transmission investment will be required by 2050.^[1]

Renewable Energy Zones, or REZs, concentrate generation in high-resource regions to reduce long-distance transmission costs. The New England REZ in New South Wales already has more than 12 gigawatts of committed capacity. Connecting REZs to coastal load centres demands new high-voltage direct current transmission infrastructure.^[2]

Green hydrogen, produced by splitting water using surplus renewable electricity, offers a pathway to replace liquefied natural gas exports. Dedicated port facilities, pipeline networks and ammonia storage terminals are required to transport these fuels safely to international markets. Western Australia and the Northern Territory hold the land and solar resources for large-scale production hubs.

Sun Cable's Australia-Asia PowerLink project proposes transmitting Northern Territory solar energy to Singapore via a subsea high-voltage direct current cable. The project entered voluntary administration in 2023 before acquisition by Squadron Energy and Grok Ventures. Its revival signals that direct electricity exports to Southeast Asia are commercially viable.^[3]

Economic Restructuring and Just Transitions

The Hunter Valley in New South Wales and Victoria's Latrobe Valley face structural unemployment as coal operations close. Federal investment in retraining, infrastructure and economic diversification is essential to prevent regional collapse. The Productivity Commission has documented how previous industry transitions left affected communities without adequate long-term support.^[4]

Australia's critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements, underpin global clean energy supply chains. Fossil fuel workers possess transferable skills in heavy machinery operation, mine surveying and safety management. Federal vocational programmes must be expanded urgently to channel these workers into critical minerals extraction and processing.

Green steel, made via hydrogen-powered direct reduction rather than coking coal, could transform Australian iron ore into a premium export. BlueScope and Fortescue are both investigating green steel production at commercial scale in Australia. The Future Made in Australia package allocates targeted production incentives to accelerate green metals manufacturing.^[5]

As Asian economies commit to net-zero targets, international demand for Australian thermal coal faces sustained long-term contraction. State governments in Queensland and New South Wales remain heavily reliant on coal royalties to fund public services. Structural economic adjustment plans must be funded and activated now to prevent foreseeable fiscal and social collapse.

Ecosystem Protection and Biodiversity Safeguards

Australia hosts more than 80 per cent of its mammal, reptile and plant species found nowhere else on Earth. Poorly sited solar and wind farms can fragment the habitats of threatened native species and disrupt wildlife corridors. Strategic planning within REZs must exclude areas of high biodiversity value from energy development.^[6]

Critical mineral extraction poses significant contamination risks to underground water systems across arid and semi-arid Australia. The Great Artesian Basin, the world's largest and deepest freshwater aquifer, underlies 22 per cent of the continent. Mandatory independent water monitoring must be embedded in all new mining approvals to protect this irreplaceable resource.

Offshore wind developments in the Gippsland declared area intersect with southern right whale migration routes and sensitive marine ecosystems. The Offshore Electricity Infrastructure Act 2021 establishes a licensing framework but requires stronger marine biodiversity conditions. Independent environmental monitors must be embedded in project approvals to enforce protections for whales and migratory seabirds.^[7]

Decommissioned power stations leave behind ash dams, contaminated soils and disturbed landscapes requiring decades of remediation. Australia lacks binding national standards for post-closure rehabilitation of fossil fuel sites. Federal legislation must compel operators to fund and execute full land restoration before surrendering their licences.

First Nations Stewardship and Land Management

Projects on Native Title land require free, prior and informed consent from Traditional Owners under both international and domestic law. The Native Title Act 1993 provides procedural rights while leaving financial participation in projects largely unguaranteed. Binding benefit-sharing agreements must be legislated as a prerequisite for project approval on Country.^[8]

Equity-sharing models, in which communities hold ownership stakes in renewable energy infrastructure, create long-term revenue streams for Traditional Owners. Indigenous Land Councils in the Northern Territory have negotiated profit-sharing agreements with solar developers operating on homelands. These precedents provide a replicable framework for First Nations economic participation across the clean energy transition.

Cultural burning, the controlled application of fire to manage fuel loads and regenerate Country, reduces bushfire risk to renewable infrastructure. Traditional Owners have applied landscape fire management practices for tens of thousands of years with documented ecological benefit. Integrating this knowledge into environmental impact assessments for large-scale energy facilities is both ecologically sound and legally overdue.^[9]

Indigenous ecological knowledge provides detailed understanding of species distributions, seasonal water flows and landscape connectivity across vast areas. Embedding this knowledge into national park management and biodiversity offset schemes requires formal legislative recognition. The EPBC Act must be amended to require First Nations co-management of land adjoining renewable energy corridors.

Policy, Regulation, and Climate Resilience

Australia's approval processes for clean energy projects currently take years longer than comparable international timelines. The federal government is establishing Environment Protection Australia to streamline environmental assessments and reduce regulatory duplication. Approval reform must preserve biodiversity protections while eliminating duplication between federal and state environmental frameworks.^[6]

The Murray-Darling Basin, home to more than 50 nationally threatened species, faces declining inflows from altered rainfall patterns. Water buyback schemes under the Murray-Darling Basin Plan must be accelerated to secure minimum environmental flows before further deterioration occurs. Climate projections indicate southern Australia will receive substantially less rainfall by the middle of this century.^[10]

Australia's Safeguard Mechanism, reformed in 2023, requires major industrial emitters to reduce emissions against annual declining baselines. Production tax credits and accelerated depreciation for long-duration battery storage would redirect private capital from gas exploration into clean energy. Clear and durable policy settings are essential to give investors the confidence the transition demands.^[9]

Coastal cities including Darwin, Cairns and Broome face escalating storm surge and inundation risk from rising sea levels. Urban planning codes in vulnerable municipalities must be updated to prohibit new residential development in mapped inundation zones. A nationally consistent coastal adaptation framework backed by federal legislation is urgently required.

Australia stands at a historically significant crossroads. The fossil fuel economy that built this nation is now the primary obstacle to its future security. Governance reform, industrial transformation and ecological stewardship must advance in concert.

The evidence across all five domains is consistent. Australia holds the renewable resources, critical minerals and export infrastructure to lead the global clean energy transition. Binding legislation and genuine accountability mechanisms remain the missing links between ambition and delivery.

Institutions responsible for approvals, investment and land management must act at a scale commensurate with the challenge. Fossil fuel communities and vulnerable ecosystems alike deserve coordinated protection and enforceable legal safeguards. Australia's window to become a clean energy superpower is real but finite.

References  

1. 2024 Integrated System Plan. Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The ISP models least-cost electricity system pathways and projects $122 billion in transmission investment will be required across the National Electricity Market by 2050 to support full renewable integration.

2. GenCost 2023-24. CSIRO. The annual GenCost report benchmarks the costs of electricity generation technologies in Australia and consistently finds utility-scale solar and wind are now the lowest-cost sources of new electricity generation on the continent.

3. Australia-Asia PowerLink. Sun Cable. Sun Cable's flagship project proposes transmitting large-scale Northern Territory solar energy to Singapore via a high-voltage direct current subsea cable, representing a new commercial model for direct Australian clean energy export to Asia.

4. Transitioning Regional Economies. Productivity Commission, 2017. This study documents the economic and social consequences of major industry transitions in Australian regional communities and recommends proactive federal support to prevent structural unemployment and civic decline.

5. Future Made in Australia. Australian Government, Department of Industry, Science and Resources, 2024. This policy framework outlines federal production incentives, co-investment mechanisms and strategic industry plans designed to attract green hydrogen, green metals and clean manufacturing to Australia.

6. National Climate Risk Assessment 2023. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. This assessment identifies cascading and systemic climate risks facing Australia, including biodiversity collapse, ecosystem degradation and gaps in existing environmental regulatory frameworks.

7. Offshore Electricity Infrastructure Act 2021. Parliament of Australia. This Act establishes a licensing and regulatory framework for offshore wind, wave and tidal electricity generation projects in Australian Commonwealth waters, including the Gippsland declared area.

8. National Native Title Tribunal. Australian Government. The NNTT administers registration, mediation and agreement-making processes under the Native Title Act 1993, including future act processes directly relevant to renewable energy and infrastructure development on Native Title land.

9. Climate Council of Australia. Independent climate policy research body. The Climate Council publishes evidence-based analysis of Australia's energy transition, clean energy policy settings, and the role of First Nations ecological knowledge and cultural burning in landscape and fire management.

10. Basin Plan. Murray-Darling Basin Authority. The Basin Plan governs water sharing across the Murray-Darling system and documents the compounding pressures of climate-driven rainfall decline, reduced inflows and agricultural demand on threatened species and environmental water allocations.

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Australia’s Flagship Climate Policy Is Failing to Cut Emissions - Gregory Andrews

Lyrebird Dreaming  –  Gregory Andrews

Australia's biggest industrial polluters are supposed to be reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. That is the purpose of the Safeguard Mechanism, the federal government's flagship policy for cutting emissions from large industrial facilities.

On paper, it sounds like a sensible approach. The country's largest emitters are each given an emissions limit, and those limits become progressively tighter over time. The expectation is that companies invest in cleaner technologies and reduce the pollution coming from their operations. Unfortunately, there's a major flaw.

Companies that exceed their emissions limits don't have to reduce their own pollution. Instead, they can purchase carbon credits to meet their obligations. In effect, they can continue emitting while paying for emissions reductions that are claimed to occur elsewhere.

A new report by The Australia Institute, Safeguarding the Fossil Fuel Industry, has just unpacked how this loophole is undermining the entire scheme. Rather than driving genuine decarbonisation, Australia's central climate policy has become little more than an accounting exercise.

The numbers tell the story. Nearly three-quarters of the facilities covered by the Safeguard Mechanism are exceeding their emissions limits and rely on carbon credits to comply with the scheme. The Australia Institute estimates that, beneath the headline figures, the scheme is delivering real emissions reductions of just 0.4%.

To be clear, offsets should not inherently be off the table. There will always be industries where emissions are difficult to eliminate immediately, and genuine carbon projects can play a role during the transition. The problem is that under the Safeguard Mechanism, there's effectively no meaningful limit on how heavily companies can rely on them instead of reducing pollution at the source. The quality of offsets that are allowed is also a serious concern.

Nor are offsets the scheme's only weakness. It covers less than one-third of Australia's emissions, contains carve-outs for emissions-intensive industries like agriculture and takes no account of the emissions from Australia's exported coal and gas.

Climate change is driven by greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere. The atmosphere doesn't distinguish between emissions that have been "offset" on paper and emissions that have been physically avoided. If a coal mine or gas processing plant continues releasing millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide each year, Australia's contribution to climate change continues unless those emissions are actually reduced.

This matters because the Safeguard Mechanism isn't a minor policy. It's the centrepiece of Australia's strategy for reducing emissions from its largest industrial facilities. Its failure to drive real emissions reductions creates a fundamental weakness in Australia's climate policy.

And the challenge becomes even greater while new coal and gas projects continue to be approved. Every new fossil fuel development increases the task of reducing emissions elsewhere in the economy. If existing facilities are also allowed to rely heavily on offsets, the transition becomes slower, more expensive and less certain.

Australia needs a Safeguard Mechanism that genuinely safeguards the climate. That means requiring real emissions reductions at facilities themselves. Carbon credits could remain a tool of last resort for emissions that genuinely cannot yet be eliminated, not the default pathway for continued pollution.

Australians understand the principle of personal responsibility. If we make a mess, we clean it up ourselves. We don't pay someone else to clean up their mess elsewhere and kid ourselves that somehow our mess has been tidied up. The same principle should apply to Australia's biggest polluters.

The Safeguard Mechanism was designed to reduce industrial emissions. It should be judged by one simple question: are Australia's biggest polluters actually emitting less greenhouse gases into the atmosphere?

If the answer's no, then the policy needs fixing.

Gregory Andrews Climate Change Articles

• Winter's Here, The Snowfields Are Open, But There's No Snow
• Worried About Climate Collapse? Here's Ten Things You Can Actually Do
• Fossil Fuel Fascism: When a Dying Industry Tries to Take Democracy With It
• Climate Policy Counts Dollars and Tonnes. What if We Counted the Dead?
• The Climate Crisis is a Health Crisis
• The Science Is In: Global Warming Is Accelerating
• While We Watch Iran, the Planet Keeps Burning
• Have your say on Canberra's next Climate Strategy: It will be make or break
• Science Warns of Future Where Billions Bake
• Two Years to 1.7°C: the “Prediction Game” We Can't Afford to Lose
• Emergency Photo Ops Aren't Climate Leadership
• Why Fascists Reject Climate Science
• Don't Be Distracted: Earth's Life Support Systems Are Collapsing
• Diesel rebates for miners and a new EV tax? Australia's climate policy double-think
• What Gas is That? Get to Know Your Climate Pollutants