Warming Pushes Mosquito-Borne Disease Deeper Into Australia - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Warming and flooding are widening the reach
of mosquito-borne disease across Australia

Key Points

Warmer, wetter conditions widen the zones where dengue and malaria mosquitoes can thrive.[1] Associate Professor Katie Anders warns that dengue outbreaks could spread further south as temperatures rise.[2] CSIRO identifies mosquito-borne disease as the most climate-sensitive communicable disease type in Australia.[3] Domestic water tanks could extend Aedes aegypti into most major cities during warm summers.[4] La Niña rainfall helped Japanese encephalitis reach the south in 2022, causing 30 confirmed human cases and six deaths.[5] Mer Island recorded eight locally acquired dengue cases in 2024, the first Torres Strait outbreak since 2017.[6]

In 2024, public health teams mobilised on Mer Island in the Torres Strait to contain dengue. 

Eight locally acquired cases had emerged, the first outbreak detected there since 2017. 

Responders combined active case finding, health promotion and vector control, which targets disease-carrying mosquitoes.^[6]

A new Monash University review places that outbreak inside a wider global pattern of climate-driven disease risk. 

Dr Toby Cumming, a research fellow at the Monash School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, led the work. 

The review examines how climate and other forces shape malaria and dengue risk.^[1]

How Warming Redraws the Mosquito Map

Cumming says rising temperatures and altered rainfall expand areas where Anopheles and Aedes populations can thrive. 

Anopheles mosquitoes spread malaria, a parasitic disease, while Aedes mosquitoes spread dengue, a viral illness. 

Local variability and seasonal effects complicate the picture, yet the impacts on both diseases look broadly similar.^[1]

CSIRO ranks mosquito-borne illness as the most climate-sensitive type of communicable disease in Australia. Its 2024 discussion paper expects warming, rainfall and flooding changes to aid transmission. The national science agency treats the threat as a planning priority rather than a distant possibility.^[3]

CSIRO identifies three mechanisms. Pathogens mature faster inside the mosquito, which shortens the incubation period before a bite can transmit infection. Suitable habitat spreads to new regions, and mosquito survival and breeding seasons lengthen.^[3]

Dengue-affected areas keep growing as temperatures rise across the world. Transmission now reaches higher altitudes and temperate regions with little historical experience of the disease. Australian health planners face a map that shifts with every warm season.^[2]

Dengue Moves South

Southern Australia sits outside the malaria risk zone, yet dengue already affects warmer areas such as far north Queensland. Anders, an associate professor at Monash, warns that outbreaks could spread further south as temperatures rise. Far north Queensland therefore offers an early indicator for the rest of the country.^[2]

Places without a long history of dengue are increasingly recording local outbreaks. Anders points to southern Europe and the southern United States. She says Australia needs to stay highly aware of that trend, because local outbreaks can follow.^[2]

A peer-reviewed study modelled the range of Aedes aegypti, the main dengue vector. It tested today's climate alongside projected warming scenarios for 2030 and 2050. Researchers then compared the results with transmission limits drawn from historical Australian epidemics.^[4]

South-east Australia has dried, and communities face escalating water restrictions. The study concludes that a proliferation of domestic water storage tanks could expand the mosquito's range. That would create dengue risk in most major cities during their warm summer months.^[4]

Why Dengue Climbs While Malaria Falls

Dengue rates are rising globally. Malaria has declined in general, despite more favourable climate conditions. Anders says better drugs and risk-reduction campaigns could explain the gap.^[2]

Cumming credits mosquito control and drug therapies with major gains against malaria. The malaria record shows that climate suitability alone fails to predict disease burden. Sustained public health investment can outweigh a climate that favours the mosquito, at least for one disease.^[1]

Rapid urbanisation offers a second explanation for the divergence between the two diseases. Aedes mosquitoes, which carry dengue, suit urban environments, while malaria is more typically a rural disease. Tropical cities keep growing, which favours the mosquito that carries dengue.^[2]

Anders says a new vaccine and Wolbachia-based control offer a chance to curb dengue. Wolbachia, a bacterium that cuts mosquitoes' ability to transmit viruses, now operates in Cairns, Townsville and other northern Queensland centres. Anders calls it largely responsible for cutting northern Queensland outbreaks to almost zero over a decade.^[2]

Japanese Encephalitis and the Flood Years

Japanese encephalitis virus, a mosquito-borne flavivirus, circulated in tropical north Queensland between 1995 and 2005. Until 2022, the disease's southern limit sat in far north Australia. Badu Island, in the Torres Strait, recorded three cases and two deaths in 1995.^[5]

In 2022 the virus spread across the southern states, causing 30 confirmed human cases and six deaths. La Niña, a Pacific Ocean climate pattern, delivered extraordinary rainfall in 2021 and 2022. An estimated 740,546 Australians live within the dispersal range of mosquitoes from infected piggeries.^[5]

Authorities declared the outbreak a communicable disease incident of national significance on 4 March 2022. By mid-July, more than 70 piggeries across four states carried the virus. Heavier rainfall had drawn migratory water birds further south and increased mosquito breeding.^[7]

Researchers at QIMR Berghofer, a Brisbane medical research institute, feared the virus had become endemic, meaning permanently established. Clinicians could only manage symptoms, because infection has no specific treatment. Two effective vaccines existed in 2022, yet limited supplies forced authorities to prioritise high-risk groups.^[8]

Frontline Communities and the Governance Gap

The Mer Island outbreak affected a Torres Strait Islander community off the northern tip of Queensland. Authors from the Torres and Cape Public Health Unit documented the response. They stress the importance of testing in primary healthcare, vector control and ongoing surveillance to limit local transmission.^[6]

CSIRO proposes criteria for assessing future communicable disease risk across Australia. The criteria include disease severity and the disproportionate burden on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Those criteria place First Nations health inside national risk planning.^[3]

A February 2025 Medical Journal of Australia editorial reviewed Australia's Japanese encephalitis surveillance efforts to date. It urged authorities to shift from a reactive surveillance and response approach. Australia had launched its first National Health and Climate Strategy in 2023.^[9]

Cumming says the research reinforces the need for a coordinated approach. That approach spans interventions on both climate and non-climate factors driving mosquito-borne disease. Effective tools already exist, so the remaining gap lies in delivery.^[1]

Mosquito-borne disease is reaching further into Australia as the climate warms and rainfall patterns shift. Dengue risk could extend south, and Japanese encephalitis has already reached the southern states. The evidence demands attention from every level of government.

Evidence from Queensland and from global malaria control shows that targeted tools can suppress disease despite favourable climate conditions. Success depends on sustained investment, surveillance and rapid response. Delay hands the advantage back to the mosquito.

Accountability rests with governments that fund surveillance, vaccines and vector control. Frontline communities, including Torres Strait Islanders, face the earliest exposure and warrant prioritised protection before the next outbreak arrives. Preparation costs far less than a failed response.

References

1. Monash University Researchers Warn Climate Change Expands Mosquito Disease Risks . Summarises the Monash review and quotes lead researcher Dr Toby Cumming on climate drivers and coordinated responses.

2. Climate change raises major disease risks for Australia (AAP) . Reports Associate Professor Katie Anders on southern dengue risk, the malaria decline and Wolbachia in northern Queensland.

3. Climate and communicable disease: Discussion paper (CSIRO, 2024) . Rates mosquito-borne disease as the most climate-sensitive communicable disease type and proposes risk assessment criteria.

4. Australia's Dengue Risk Driven by Human Adaptation to Climate Change (PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases) . Models Aedes aegypti range under 2030 and 2050 scenarios and links domestic water tanks to dengue risk in major cities.

5. Japanese Encephalitis Emergence in Australia: The Potential Population at Risk (Clinical Infectious Diseases) . Documents the 2022 range expansion, its drivers and the population living near infected piggeries.

6. An outbreak of dengue virus type 3 on Mer Island in the Torres Strait, Australia in 2024 (Communicable Diseases Intelligence) . Describes the first detected Torres Strait dengue outbreak since 2017 and the community public health response.

7. Japanese encephalitis: a recent rise in Australian cases (Medicine Today) . Outlines the national significance declaration, infected piggeries and weather drivers behind the 2022 outbreak.

8. Extreme concern over Japanese encephalitis risk this summer (QIMR Berghofer) . Warns of possible endemic spread and limited vaccine supplies after the 2022 outbreak.

9. Policy responses to climate crisis and health in Australia: a need for urgency (Medical Journal of Australia, 2025) . Reviews Japanese encephalitis surveillance and urges a shift beyond reactive responses.

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The 1.5-Degree Line Is About to Break. What Happens Next Is Up to Us - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Critical climate limit: Exceeding 1.5°C pushes Earth out of the stable Holocene environment that enabled modern human civilisation to develop. Irreversible tipping points: Crossing 1.5°C risks triggering planetary tipping points, such as the permanent collapse of major polar ice sheets. Imminent threshold breach: Scientific data indicates the world will inevitably crash through the 1.5°C limit within the next three to five years. Disastrous warming trajectory: Rising global energy demands keep humanity on a dangerous trajectory toward 3°C of warming by the century's end. Multi-front response needed: Returning to safe levels requires phasing out fossil fuels, transforming food systems, and scaling massive carbon removal technologies simultaneously. Feasible solutions exist: Scientists remain optimistic because proven solutions exist; the primary challenge is rapidly accelerating their scale and deployment pace.

The world will breach 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming within three to five years, according to the United Nations Environment Programme's Overshoot Report. 

 

Potsdam Institute director Professor Johan Rockström says the consequences will be severe.

 

On the BBC World Service's The Climate Question, Professor Rockström calls 1.5 degrees a scientific limit, not a target.

 

Warming beyond it pushes the climate outside the stable range that allowed agriculture and civilisation to flourish. 

 

Scientists have mapped 16 tipping-point systems, and six face roughly even odds of collapse if warming stays above 1.5 degrees. 

 

The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets alone hold enough water to raise sea levels by 10 metres.

Progress exists. Norway sells almost exclusively electric cars, the European Union has cut emissions by more than 25 percent, and solar and wind keep expanding. 

 

Yet clean energy has only met rising demand, so fossil fuel use still grows about 1 percent a year. The current trajectory leads toward 3 degrees by 2100.

 

Professor Rockström warns that climate models assume everything goes right: emissions fall 5 percent annually, agriculture becomes a carbon sink, forests and oceans keep absorbing half of emissions, and carbon removal technologies scale to billions of tonnes. 

 

Direct air capture costs about $500 a tonne, against a peak EU carbon price of $100. Planting trees alone offers little relief.

 

Even the best scenario peaks near 1.7 degrees and likely destroys coral reefs and European glaciers. 

Still, Professor Rockström stays optimistic. He argues the solutions exist and the narrow window remains open.

 References 

BBC World Service: The Climate Question

UN Environment Programme Overshoot Report: UNEP - Limiting Overshoot: Navigating Exceedance of 1.5°C

Scientific Assessment on Tipping Points: Science Journal - Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Planetary Boundaries Core Research Update: Stockholm Resilience Centre - All planetary boundaries mapped out for the first time

The Legal Framework for 1.5°C: UNFCCC - The Paris Agreement

Institutional Framework Site: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - Planetary Boundaries Framework

UN Environment Programme Emissions Tracking: UNEP - Emissions Gap Report

Carbon Market Framework: European Commission - EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)

Review Paper on Tipping Elements: Sage Journals - Two decades of climate tipping points research: Progress and outlook

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Assessment: International Energy Agency - Direct Air Capture Technology Report

Australia Swelters Through Its Second-Warmest September - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia endured its second-warmest September on record
while eastern regions recorded near-record dryness across the month

Key Points

Australia's area-averaged mean temperature reached 2.71°C above average, the second-warmest September since 1910.[1] Mean minimum temperature set a September record, narrowly surpassing 2020, while maximums ranked third.[2] Parafield Airport hit 35.6°C on 29 September, beating its 35.0°C record from 69 years of data. Edinburgh, also in the north, reached 35.2°C and eclipsed a 34.9°C record.[3] The Murray-Darling Basin endured its second-driest September, and eastern Australia ranked second-driest as well.[1] Western Australia recorded its second-wettest September at 147 per cent above average.[2] Fire agencies flagged increased spring bushfire risk across every jurisdiction except the ACT.[4]

On 29 September, beachgoers crowded Glenelg as Adelaide reached 34.4°C at 1:36pm. 

Bureau senior meteorologist Dean Narramore likened the heat to January. 

Hot, dry and gusty northerly winds lifted temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Celsius above average at some sites.^[5]

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) keeps national temperature observations dating to 1910. 

Against that record, September 2026 ranked second-warmest, while the Murray-Darling Basin endured its second-driest September. 

The result arrives as a record-strength El Niño builds in the Pacific.^[1][2]

National Temperature Records and Statistics

Area-averaged mean temperature combines maximums and minimums from hundreds of weather stations across the country. An anomaly measures how far a reading sits above or below a long-term baseline. 

September 2026 finished 2.71°C above the 1961–1990 average.^[1][2]

Mean maximum temperature, the average daytime high, ranked third-warmest for September. Mean minimum temperature, the average overnight low, set a national September record for warmth. Almost all of Australia ran warmer than average, with only a portion of Far North Queensland running cooler.^[2]

Every state and territory ranked among its six warmest Septembers on record. South Australia registered an anomaly of 3.55°C above the long-term average. That figure sits 0.84°C above the national result.^[1]

Climate change has lifted Australia's average temperature by roughly 1.5°C since 1910. A strong El Niño now adds heat to an already elevated baseline. Globally, El Niño also lifts the odds of a record-warm 2026, with 2027 probably warmer again.^[2]

Regional Impacts and State-Specific Records

Parafield Airport, an observation site in Adelaide's north, reached 35.6°C on 29 September. That reading broke the old September record of 35.0°C from 69 years of data.^[3]

Adelaide's West Terrace station reached 34.4°C, the city's second-hottest September day on record. Only the 35.1°C recorded in 1961 stands higher. More than a dozen South Australian sites set September records that day, including Port Pirie at 35.9°C.^[5]

Murray Bridge Airport reached 35.8°C, beating its old September record of 35.2°C. Minlaton Airport on the Yorke Peninsula reached 35.2°C, shattering a 33.0°C record. Three South Australian towns recorded their warmest September night on record, led by Tarcoola at 24.7°C.^[3]

Far North Queensland formed the only sizeable exception to the national warmth. Cloudy skies and above-average September rainfall held temperatures below average across a portion of the region. Each El Niño differs, and the Indian Ocean can counter the rainfall signal from the Pacific.^[1][2]

Rainfall Deficiencies and Drought Impact

National rainfall finished 17 per cent below the long-term average, despite the heavy western falls. Western Australia ran against that trend, recording its second-wettest September at 147 per cent above average. A surface trough meeting an upper-level low delivered heavy showers and thunderstorms from 22 September.^[1][2]

Southeastern Australia, eastern Australia and the Murray-Darling Basin each recorded their second-driest September. New South Wales ranked fourth-driest since national rainfall observations began in 1900. Eastern Australia averaged 8.32 millimetres, roughly two-thirds below the long-term norm.^[1][2]

The Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) says drought cuts every allocation, whether for farms or the environment. Water critical for human needs, including drinking and livestock, takes priority in severe drought. Its Basin Plan, the framework for sharing water, aims to treat farmers, communities, the environment and First Nations fairly.^[6]

AFAC, the Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services, flagged increased spring fire risk. That risk covers areas across every jurisdiction except the ACT. Dry eastern conditions and increased fuel loads contributed to that assessment.^[4]

Primary Climate Drivers of the Unseasonable Heat

El Niño, a warming of the central Pacific Ocean, typically dries Australian springs, especially in the east. Clear skies then lift daytime temperatures. The current strong phase exerts a major influence on both patterns, according to Weatherzone.^[1]

Sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific now exceed the 2015 record. They passed that mark about two months earlier than the 2015 peak, in data back to 2008. All models, including the Bureau's, forecast further warming into late spring or summer.^[2]

Sea-surface temperatures in Australian waters have run above average for much of 2026. Warmer seas transfer heat to the atmosphere. A shortage of cold fronts from the Southern Ocean also removed the usual cooling.^[1]

A high-pressure system centred off the New South Wales coast drove northerly winds on 29 September. Those winds funnelled warm air from the interior towards central, southern and eastern South Australia. Forecasters expected weakening cold fronts to cut at least five degrees from maximums the next day.^[3]

Comparisons to Past Historical Septembers

September 2013 retains the title of Australia's warmest September on record. The Bureau lists its mean temperature anomaly at 2.86°C above the 1961–1990 average. Queensland also set its September anomaly record that year, at 3.34°C.^[7]

September 2026 finished 0.15°C below that benchmark, with an anomaly of 2.71°C. Every other September since 1910 sits lower. The Bureau's outlook favours warmer-than-usual maximums and minimums across almost all of Australia through January.^[1][2][7]

Overnight lows narrowly surpassed 2020, the previous holder, to claim the September record. Daytime highs ranked third, so record warm nights underpinned the second-place national result. August sea-surface temperatures between 60°S and 60°N also hit a global record for any month, 1.04°C above average.^[2]

Burraboi farmers Brian and Alex Martin set aside 60 hectares for rice, though they describe water as scarce and expensive. Meanwhile a draft Basin Authority determination cut expected efficiency-project returns from 605 gigalitres to 340. Governments must now decide whether to develop alternative projects or pursue further water recovery from agriculture.^[8][9]

September 2026 combined near-record warmth with near-record dryness across eastern Australia. A strengthening El Niño, warm seas and absent cold fronts acted on a climate already roughly 1.5°C warmer since 1910. Western Australia's wet month and a cloudy Far North Queensland showed how uneven the pattern remained across the continent.

Governance questions sharpen as the Basin Plan confronts a 265-gigalitre shortfall in promised environmental flows. Fire agencies have flagged increased spring risk in every jurisdiction except the ACT. Bureau modelling indicates Pacific warming will persist into autumn 2027.

The records document only part of the story. Governments control water recovery, climate policy and fire preparedness, and public reporting should show who holds responsibility. Each decision now carries measurable consequences for farmers, First Nations communities and ecosystems.

References

1. Australia's 2nd-warmest September on record, 2nd-driest in Murray-Darling Basin (Weatherzone, 1 October 2026). Summarises the Bureau of Meteorology's national temperature and rainfall rankings and the drivers behind them.

2. September was Australia's second hottest on record, and second driest in the east, BoM data shows (RenewEconomy, 2 October 2026). Reports the Bureau's maximum and minimum rankings, state rainfall results and the El Niño outlook.

3. At least 15 September SA heat records broken, several in Adelaide area (Weatherzone, 29 September 2026). Lists the South Australian station records and explains the synoptic setup behind the heat.

4. Spring outlook shows bushfire risk increases as El Niño loads the dice (ABC News, 19 August 2026). Describes the AFAC seasonal outlook and its link to a strengthening El Niño.

5. Records fall as September temperatures soar in South Australia (ABC News, 29 September 2026). Quotes Bureau meteorologist Dean Narramore on the record heat and details Adelaide's second-hottest September day.

6. Drought (Murray-Darling Basin Authority). Explains how the Basin Plan manages allocations, critical human needs and fairness for all water users during drought.

7. Monthly Summary for Australia, September 2024 (Bureau of Meteorology). Records the national September mean temperature anomaly record of 2.86°C set in 2013.

8. One Nation wants environmental water to be used for cropping in drought-hit Murray-Darling Basin (ABC News, 22 September 2026). Captures irrigator and political pressure over environmental water, including the Burraboi farmers' account of scarce supply.

9. Murray-Darling Basin faces 265GL water recovery shortfall (North Queensland Register). Reports the draft Basin Authority determination that efficiency projects will deliver 340 gigalitres against a 605 gigalitre target.

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The Hunter Valley Coal Decision Tests Australia’s Climate Policy - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

NSW has approved the HVO continuation project through 2045. [1] The Commission recognised 809 million tonnes of greenhouse gases linked to mining and overseas coal combustion. [1] HVO must publish greenhouse gas and Scope 3 management plans under the approval. [1] The mine employs about 1,550 people and supports a substantial regional supply chain. [2] Yancoal owns 51 per cent of HVO while Glencore owns 49 per cent. [3] The project still requires Commonwealth environmental approval before continuation. [4]

New South Wales has approved its largest coal mine continuation project despite recognising its substantial contribution to global warming.

The decision concerns Hunter Valley Operations (HVO) near Singleton. 

The Independent Planning Commission approved continuation at HVO North until 2045 and HVO South until 2042. ^[1]

The approval followed a three-day public hearing during July. The Commission received 10,576 written submissions and heard from 129 members of the public and subject-matter experts. ^[1]

A decision shaped by competing public interests

HVO occupies a long-established mining landscape between Singleton and Muswellbrook. The complex has operated since 1949 and remains a major employer and economic contributor. ^[3]

The Commission weighed those regional interests against environmental impacts identified during its assessment. Its reasons recognise consequences for the Hunter, NSW and the global climate system. ^[1]

The project therefore sits at the centre of a policy tension. NSW seeks an orderly transition from coal while permitting an established operation to continue for almost two decades. ^[5]

Environmental groups have strongly criticised the decision. Rising Tide described the approval as the largest climate policy failure in NSW history, a characterisation the organisation attributes to the scale of the extension. ^[6]

The climate arithmetic behind HVO

The Commission identified about 809 million tonnes of greenhouse gases associated with local mining operations and combustion of the exported coal overseas. ^[1]

That figure includes emissions generated beyond the mine itself. It therefore captures the wider climate consequence of selling coal for combustion in international markets. ^[1]

The Commission nevertheless concluded that the project could proceed within existing NSW and Commonwealth statutory and policy frameworks. Its conditions aim to manage the identified greenhouse impacts. ^[1]

That approach leaves a difficult policy question surrounding responsibility for exported fossil fuel emissions. The approval regulates the mine while the largest emissions occur when customers burn its coal overseas. ^[1]

Jobs and the economics of continuation

HVO currently employs about 1,550 employees and contractors. Glencore reports a 2025 economic contribution of $1.76 billion and more than $1.2 billion spent on goods and services. ^[3]

Those figures explain the strength of local support for continuation. Mining wages circulate through regional businesses while contractors depend upon the operation for sustained demand. ^[2]

The Commission considered employment, business and broader social benefits alongside environmental costs. Its decision therefore reflects a regional economy still heavily connected to coal production. ^[1]

Yet continuation also extends the period available for transition planning. The Commission has required a closure plan designed to support workers and communities as the region develops new economic opportunities. ^[1]

Conditions designed to reduce the damage

The approval requires HVO to prepare a greenhouse gas mitigation plan within six months. The plan must address Scope 1 emissions, including fugitive emissions from mining. ^[1]

The operator must also purchase additional carbon offsets beyond those required under the Commonwealth Safeguard Mechanism. The condition adds a separate obligation to the federal scheme. ^[1]

Within three months, HVO must publish a Scope 3 Management Plan. It must explain how the operation will limit exports towards jurisdictions pursuing emissions policies consistent with the Paris Agreement. ^[1]

The project must also maximise renewable electricity use within four years and publish a comprehensive closure plan within 12 months. Those requirements create measurable obligations beyond ordinary operational controls. ^[1]

The unresolved federal climate test

State approval does not complete the regulatory process. HVO still requires Commonwealth environmental approval for continuation, with the federal decision required by the end of December 2026. ^[4]

That second decision carries particular significance because the state assessment has already quantified the project's global greenhouse consequences. The federal process therefore enters a debate already defined by extensive evidence. ^[1]

NSW has legislated a pathway towards net zero emissions while retaining an economy with major coal exports. HVO illustrates the practical difficulty of reconciling those objectives within existing planning frameworks. ^[5]

The approval also places greater weight on transition planning around the mine. Its closure condition acknowledges that regional economic resilience requires preparation before coal production eventually ends. ^[1]

The HVO decision exposes the competing obligations facing governments in coal regions. Jobs and regional investment carry immediate value while climate damage accumulates across borders and generations.

The Commission has imposed unusually detailed greenhouse and closure conditions. Their effectiveness will depend upon transparent reporting, regulatory enforcement and credible implementation throughout the mine's remaining life.

The federal assessment now becomes the next major accountability test. HVO demonstrates why Australia's transition debate increasingly concerns governance, responsibility and the practical limits of managing fossil fuel expansion.

References

1. Hunter Valley Operations coal mine approved with conditions. Independent Planning Commission NSW. Official determination summary, including emissions, economic impacts and approval conditions.

2. Hunter Valley coal mine wins approval to operate until 2045. Daily Telegraph. Reports employment, regional business impacts and economic arguments surrounding the approval.

3. Hunter Valley Operations. Glencore Australia. Provides ownership, employment, production and economic contribution information.

4. HVO Project: One step closer to certainty for 1,500 workers. Glencore Australia. Confirms the state approval and remaining Commonwealth environmental approval requirement.

5. Securing long-term jobs for the Hunter: HVO approval strikes right balance. NSW Government. Sets out the government's response and the approved operating periods.

6. Biggest climate failure: Major coal mine project approved despite laws to reduce emissions. Nature Conservation Council NSW media statement. Records environmental groups' response to the decision.

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Counting the Cost: New Tool Ties Coal and Gas Projects to Measurable Harm - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

A new open tool converts the emissions of individual fossil fuel projects
into measurable harm to people and ecosystems

Key Points

The Carbon Impacts Tracer converts a project's emissions into estimated warming and harm across eight areas. 1 The tool applies a method developed by researchers from six universities in Australia and the United Kingdom. 2 Difficulty tracing emissions to specific harm has long made climate legal cases harder to launch. 3 Scarborough gas project emissions were linked to about 16 million coral deaths in each new mass bleaching. 4 Hunter Valley Operations emissions of 809 million tonnes would add about 0.00036°C of warming. 5 Climate Council analysis places the mine's lifetime pollution at more than seven times annual NSW emissions. 6

Near Singleton in the Upper Hunter, the open-cut pits of Hunter Valley Operations straddle the Hunter River.

This week the NSW Independent Planning Commission is expected to decide whether mining continues until 2045.

Joint owners Yancoal and Glencore seek that extension. ⁷

Fossil fuel backers have long argued that one project has a negligible effect and that harm defies tracking.

The Carbon Impacts Tracer, launched by Australian National University and UNSW researchers, tests that claim with numbers.

It links each tonne of carbon dioxide to extra warming and then to harm. ³

 Six Universities, One Public Tool

The tracer builds on a method developed by researchers from six universities in Australia and the United Kingdom.

That research appeared in the journal Climate Action in 2025. It first examined the newly approved Scarborough gas project in Western Australia. ²

The Australian National University developed the online tool, while UNSW researchers joined the launch. Research officer Claudia Stepin built it. Climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick is part of the launch team. ^{1 2}

Its purpose is to translate a project's publicly documented emissions into estimated harm. Users can enter emissions for any project, company or country and generate a report describing the underlying science. The tool is open source, so anyone can inspect the method. ³

The tracer estimates impacts across eight areas. These include lost food production, labour hours lost to heat, glacier loss, coral death and heatwave deaths in Europe. It also tracks projected damage from 16 major fossil fuel companies between 2024 and 2050. ³

Tracing Tonnes to Harm

The method links three steps. Emissions produce extra warming, and extra warming produces damage to people and ecosystems. Each link draws on published scientific relationships rather than a single new model. ³

The bridge between emissions and warming is the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Dioxide Emissions, known as TCRE. It describes the near-proportional rise in global temperature as total emissions grow. Scientists treat it as an established calculation. ¹

The tracer applies that relationship to a project's documented emissions. For Hunter Valley Operations, 809 million tonnes of emissions yield about 0.00036°C of extra warming. The plausible range runs from 0.00022 to 0.00050°C. ⁵

The tool excludes non-carbon dioxide gases, so its figures are approximate. Perkins-Kirkpatrick states that small changes in global temperature can produce severe consequences. Estimates from peer-reviewed climate studies then convert each increment of warming into human and ecological terms. ¹

Scarborough as the Test Case

Woodside's Scarborough liquefied natural gas project off Western Australia served as the case study for the underlying research. Its lifetime emissions were traced to warming and then to harm. UNSW summarised the findings under a headline linking the project to hundreds of deaths. ⁴

Unprecedented heat describes temperatures beyond any a population has previously experienced. Lifetime emissions from Scarborough would expose an extra 516,000 people to it. That figure exceeds half a million people. ²

Coral bleaching occurs when heat stress causes corals to expel the algae that sustain them. The researchers estimated that about 16 million Great Barrier Reef corals would die in each new mass bleaching. Each additional increment of warming raises pressure on a reef already exposed to repeated heat stress. ⁴

Carbon intensity measures emissions per unit of gas delivered, while the tracer measures warming from total lifetime emissions. Woodside states Scarborough is expected to be among the lowest-carbon-intensity LNG sources for north Asian markets. The company also notes the reservoir holds less than 0.1 per cent carbon dioxide. ⁴

The Economic Ledger

The tracer extends the accounting of fossil fuel costs beyond emissions tonnage. Stepin says added measures such as poverty, labour loss and food insecurity give a more comprehensive picture of consequences. Each measure converts an abstract carbon footprint into a quantity that economists can weigh. ²

Hunter Valley Operations offers a worked example. Its emissions would trim crop output each year by the equivalent of the minimum dietary needs of 276,129 people. Almost half a million people would also face unprecedented heat. ¹

The tool targets accountability for governments that approve projects and the companies that propose them. Litigants, economists and advocates can use the same outputs to test claims of negligible impact. Glencore, a joint owner of the mine, offered no response to the Guardian. ³

The tracer adds a climate cost to the ledger that planners weigh. Mine supporters have told the commission that the livelihoods of thousands of families depend on continued operations. Both sets of figures now sit before the same decision makers, who must weigh regional jobs against global harm. ⁷

Evidence for Courts and Regulators

UNSW researcher Wesley Morgan describes the tracer as a breakthrough tool. Until now, he says, proponents could argue that a single project has no measurable climate impact. The tracer supplies a number where that argument once stood, and the number can be tested by others. ⁵

The launch analysis covers five major Australian projects, including the Carmichael coal mine and the Narrabri Gas Project. Three Western Australian developments complete the set, among them the North West Shelf Extension. Emissions from Carmichael alone would expose an additional 2.8 million people to unprecedented heat. ²

Quantified estimates offer regulators a numerical link between a project and its harms. Decision makers will determine the weight given to them. For years, the difficulty of tracing that link made climate cases harder to launch. ³

Free public access places the tracer at the point of decision. The Climate Council states that the commission must weigh the full climate impacts of Hunter Valley Operations. That includes 793.8 million tonnes released when its coal is burned. ⁶

Conclusion

The Carbon Impacts Tracer converts an abstract emissions total into estimates of heat exposure, lost crops and dying coral. That conversion removes a long-standing defence that a single project has a negligible effect. Scarborough and Hunter Valley Operations now carry numbers alongside their approvals.

Governance questions remain. Approval authorities now hold quantified harm alongside jobs and revenue claims, yet every estimate carries uncertainty, and the tool excludes non-carbon dioxide gases. Transparent method and open access allow independent scrutiny of every figure.

Accountability depends on how decision makers use this evidence. Regulators who approve projects with quantified harms will need to justify that trade-off publicly and with reference to the science. Communities in the Hunter and beyond will judge the outcome against those numbers.

References

1. New tool directly links carbon emissions to amount of environmental and economic damage caused. Guardian Australia report on the Carbon Impacts Tracer, its eight impact measures and the Hunter Valley Operations example.

2. Counting the cost: tool estimates fossil fuel impacts. AAP report covering the launch by ANU and UNSW, the Climate Action method and figures for Scarborough and Carmichael.

3. We can finally measure the damage each new coal, gas or oil project will do to people and nature. Explainer by the tool's ANU and UNSW authors describing the emissions-to-warming-to-harm method and its accountability purpose.

4. For the first time, we linked a new fossil fuel project to hundreds of deaths. Here's the impact of Woodside's Scarborough gas project. UNSW account of the 2025 Scarborough research, including coral loss estimates and Woodside's stated position.

5. Australian researchers launch “breakthrough” online tool to track climate damage of new fossil fuel projects. Industry news report giving the warming range for Hunter Valley Operations and the tool's exclusion of non-carbon dioxide gases.

6. Hunter Valley Operations: Why NSW should reject its biggest-ever coal mine. Climate Council analysis of the mine's lifetime emissions and the planning commission's obligation to weigh climate impacts.

7. Coal miners, activists rally as IPC considers Hunter Valley Operations extension. ABC News coverage of the planning commission hearings, including evidence from workers and businesses that support the extension.

The official blinding of the people - Julian Cribb

Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

How we are taught not to see what’s really going on…

AUTHOR

Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

Climate heating and the global collapse of nature confront humanity with the greatest security challenge yet, the British Government has warned its closest allies.

In the wake of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, the UK privately briefed select European and African governments of the findings of a secret report by its intelligence services into the risks posed by accelerating climate change and collapsing ecosystems worldwide.

More wars, mass population movements, global price inflation and famines were among the key threats identified by UK foreign secretary Ed Miliband in his confidential briefing on reports compiled by the British Joint Intelligence Committee, the body that oversees the UK’s defence and security services.

A heavily redacted part of the report, focussing on the global collapse of nature, was released after a long delay by the UK Government in January 2026. The full report, especially details of climate impacts, has never been made public.

In his public remarks at the UN, Miliband said “climate and nature loss represent an urgent national security issue and demand action equal to the scale of the challenge…” He admitted that, previously, “climate change and the destruction of nature were treated as peripheral environmental issues” by government.

“I think you all know the picture, and it is gloomy, I warn you, but I’m just going to say some of it to you today because we need to be truth-telling about this:

• Over 150 million hectares burned globally in the first four months of 2026 alone.
• Record extreme heat causing widespread loss of life.
• Nepal’s devastating floods happening due to glacial collapse and the coming El Nino, as (Australian) Prime Minister Albanese said, is already forecast to be the strongest in living memory.
• And the nature loss crisis is just as acute, with ecosystems being degraded in every region of the world.

“That is the conclusion of the UK’s recent nature security assessment, which you can all read.”

Miliband was disingenuous. In saying “you all know the picture” he deliberately masked the efforts by governments worldwide, including his own, to obscure the real impacts of climate and ecosystem crisis from their citizens.

In citing Australian PM Albanese he inadvertently drew attention to another government hellbent on deceiving its citizens and increasing greenhouse emissions. In 2022, the Albanese Government ordered the Office of National Intelligence - Australia’s peak intelligence assessment agency - to urgently assess the national security implications of climate change. 

The report has never seen the light of day. However, former defence and intelligence commanders in the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLGC) have issued two papers highly condemnatory of their government for failing to alert its citizens to the building security crisis – Missing in Action (2021) and Too Hot to Handle (2024).

Meanwhile the US Trump Administration has committed itself wholeheartedly to destroying both the planet and the USA by accelerating the burning of fossil fuels, while pretending to not know what it is doing. According to Amnesty International, Trump has:

1. Withdrawn the US from global climate bodies
2. Promoted disinformation against established climate science
3. Used coercive measures to push pro-fossil fuel policies
4. Weakened domestic climate protections
5. Defunded climate science
6. Cracked down on citizens’ climate protests.

In 2023 the annual US National Security Threat Assessment stated that “Climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to U.S. national security interests as the physical impacts increase and geopolitical tensions mount about the global response to the challenge.” By 2026 that chapter was completely gone from the report despite worsening global conditions. Also redacted was all reference to “climate”.

Even Canada, under Carney, was still deceptively trying to have a bet both ways – pledging to prepare for climate disaster while maintaining its rank as the world’s 4^th largest oil producer and a major producer of natural gas. Alas for Canada, there will be little it can do about 100 million climate refugees fleeing the US – a scenario increasingly likely in a world of 1.2 billion refugees.

Only China, among the world’s leading countries, appears to be serious about acting on climate. It is accelerating the switch to green energy and electric transport, is replanting its deserts, has started a national carbon market and is taking an active global role in helping other countries to adapt and prepare.

As Alvin Foo, a Chinese AI guru, wittily observed: “In the US, you can change the political party – but not the policy. In China you can change the policy, but not the political party.”

Not enough people are asking the hard questions about why this is so. The best explanation is that in the West, government is now controlled, not by the people, but by powerful, cashed-up supercorporations, such as the fossil fuels sector, tech giants, the military-industrial complex, AI, the banks and Big Pharma. Even if the government changes at election, the policies decreed by these commercial dictators do not. Democracy has been neutered, if not expunged.

This process, known as “state capture” or sometimes as “kleptocracy”, involves the reins of government being taken over by the few in order to exploit the environment and the many.

In China, by contrast, being a billionaire invites scrutiny from the state – and quite often, disappearance. As a result, the number of Chinese billionaire oligarchs has shrunk from 1058 in 2021 to 406 in 2026. Meanwhile wealth and private property have boomed for ordinary people. China’s poorest 50% have had a 500% income rise since 1978 – while the US’s poorest 50% have had a 1% decrease.

This is all by way of saying that most governments are today self-evidently more interested in serving global corporate capital than serving their people – and consequently are reluctant to truthfully inform the people of the harm that capital is doing to the planet and humanity. As a result they redact, dilute or withhold the findings of their own reports about the building global crisis lest the people discover the true causes and react accordingly.

Science takes a different perspective. Assessing the destruction as ‘ecological overshoot’ caused by human numbers and demand wilfully exceeding the Earth’s capacity, a group of eminent researchers has asserted that behind this ‘behavioural crisis’ lie three potent drivers: economic growth, marketing and pronatalism.

“These three drivers directly impact the three ‘levers’ of overshoot: consumption, waste and population. We demonstrate how the maladaptive behaviours of overshoot stemming from these three drivers have been catalysed and perpetuated by the intentional exploitation of previously adaptive human impulses,” they declared.

Neoliberal economic theory believes in an economy that is “untethered from nature”, consumer demand that is “insatiable” and human ingenuity that is “unbounded”. These three lead to the prevailing belief in economic growth that is unlimited, in a limited world.

At the same time marketing has mined consumers’ private online data to create demand for things the consumer neither wants nor needs, but can be induced to buy. By the time a child is 13 years old, the global marketing machine has already collected 72 million data points on its personal preferences, likes and dislikes.

Despite huge advances in reducing child mortality, there remains a strong pro-birth lobby worldwide, led mainly by businessmen and those unwilling to surrender their ancient patriarchy.

The scientists conclude that these three tools – economic growth, marketing and pronatalism – are being used to engineer human behaviour into overshooting the Earth’s ability to support us and “As the effects of overshoot worsen, the likelihood of societal breakdown increases.”

They call for an urgent worldwide effort to revise the values and beliefs that underpin this self-destructive system, especially the belief in endless growth.

This perspective makes it crystal clear why governments in general do not want their publics to know about the nature or extent of collapse – because they, themselves, are deeply implicated in driving it. And the public must be held in ignorance, at all costs.

Most likely, however, the Earth itself will engineer the revision of human values, by collapsing food, water, civilisation, numbers, countries, learning and health simultaneously. It will then be up to Earth citizens, not oligarchs or governments, to define how they wish to survive in future. Assuming they do…

Julian Cribb Articles

• Here comes the Human Tsunami
• Sounding the Earth Emergency
• Turning Waste Into Wealth
• Up to our eyeballs in 💩💩💩
• Plasticide: a crime against humanity · Our Rising Oceans
• Will climate change put women in the ascendant?
• When the water runs out...
• The great dying
• Australia issues ‘terrifying’ climate warning
• 'Died of a delusion': the fate of modern civilisation?
• Collapse is near, scientists warn
• De-icing the Earth: a fatal human choice.
• Rivers of Death
• Unlike politicians, thermometers do not lie
• Welcome to BunkerWorld: Home of the rich and fearful
• Wisdom of the elders
• The black work of Big Oil
• Stealing the Breath of Life
• The Earth Uncloaked - a catastrophe in slow motion
• Military experts warn of climate wars
• Tackling the Earth Emergency
• A distracted world marches steadily towards catastrophe