Health Risks and Hard Grounds: The Existential Crisis Facing Canberra’s Community Sport - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

1. Sport-Specific Impacts in Canberra Heat, Humanity and the Hockey Stick: Climate Change and Sport in Canberra A vital Issues Paper from the ACT Commissioner for Sustainability and the Environment. It explicitly links Canberra's rising temperature thresholds to the degradation of irrigated sports grounds and the health risks for "active recreation" in the Capital. Game, Set, Match: Calling Time on Climate Inaction (Climate Council) Provides the broader national context for the "Summer of Sport" crisis, with specific data on the 2040 viability of professional leagues (AFLW, BBL) that frequently play at Canberra’s Manuka Oval and GIO Stadium. 2. Primary Climate Data & Projections ACT Climate Change Snapshot (NSW Government/OEH) This is the foundational technical document for the region. It provides the "Near Future" (2030) and "Far Future" (2070) baseline comparisons for maximum temperatures, heatwave frequency, and the specific increase in days over 35°C. CSIRO/BOM Climate Change in Australia (Projections Tool) The source for the high-emissions (RCP 8.5) modelling. By selecting the "Southern Tablelands" cluster, you can extract the specific 2040–2060 variance for Canberra’s "tropical nights" (min > 20°C) and the increasing duration of extreme heat events. 3. Health & Air Quality (Canberra Context) ANU Study: 1 in 15 ACT Emergency Department Visits Linked to Extreme Weather  This 2026 report from the Australian National University (ANU) provides the physiological evidence for the Canberra table's "High Risk" column, specifically noting that young athletes (<20 years old) are at the highest risk on days exceeding 35°C in the ACT. ACT Government: Climate Choices - Extreme Events  The ACT’s official portal for adaptation, detailing the projected increase in "Severe Fire Weather Days" for the Canberra region, which directly influences the AQI risk mentioned in the table.

Canberra’s reputation as the "cool climate" capital of Australian sport is rapidly evaporating as shifting weather patterns turn the territory’s beloved ovals into literal heat traps.

In February 2026, the city has already sweltered through a peak of 39°C, providing a visceral preview of the climate crisis currently reshaping our national pastime.

New medical data from the Australian National University highlights the urgency of this shift, revealing that one in 15 emergency department visits in the ACT is now weather-related, with junior athletes the most vulnerable.

By 2040, the number of days exceeding 35°C is projected to at least double, making the traditional weekend cricket or tennis match a dangerous physiological gamble.

This environmental reality is not just a health crisis but a threat to the cultural fabric of the Bush Capital, where outdoor sport is a cornerstone of community identity.

The economic foundations of local clubs are also under siege, as the soaring costs of water and specialised turf maintenance outpace the modest budgets of volunteer associations.

The Future

To preserve the future of Canberra’s athletes, regional planners must now transition from reactive match cancellations to proactive, climate-resilient stadium design.

Initiatives like "heat-proof" nocturnal scheduling and the installation of advanced cooling infrastructure are no longer luxuries but essential survival tools for the sector.

Without a radical overhaul of our sporting infrastructure, the ACT faces a significant decline in participation as the summer heat becomes biologically unplayable.

The battle to save the Canberra summer of sport is now in injury time, and the decisions made in this decade will determine if the next generation gets to play at all.

Summary

• The "Double-Up": The number of days exceeding 35°C is expected to at least double, moving extreme heat from a "rare event" to a "weekly summer occurrence."
• Infrastructure Stress: Canberra's sporting ovals, which rely on specific cool-climate grass varieties, will face total collapse without transition to more expensive, heat-tolerant drought-resistant turf.
• The Night-Time Shift: With more "tropical nights" where the temperature stays above 20°C, the effectiveness of night-time scheduling, the primary current adaptation strategy, will diminish as ambient temperatures remain high even under lights.
• Urban Heat Island: Based on current modelling from the CSIRO and the Climate Council for the ACT and surrounding Tablelands, Canberra is projected to experience one of the most significant relative increases in extreme heat days in the country by 2040. While Canberra's high altitude historically provided cooler nights, the urban heat island effect combined with global warming is rapidly eroding this nocturnal relief.

2040 Climate Projections for Canberra

Metric	Historical Baseline  (1981–2010)	2040 Projection High Emissions	Impact on Canberra Sport
Days over 35°C	~7 days per year	12– 26 days per year	Widespread cancellation of community cricket and tennis.
Days over 40°C	<1 day per year	3– 5 days per year	Total suspension of all outdoor activity; high risk of heatstroke.
Heatwave  Duration	~3 consecutive days	5– 8  consecutive days	Damage to turf at Manuka Oval; extreme stress on water resources.
Tropical Nights (Min > 20°C)	Rare  (<1 night)	3– 7 nights  per year	Failure of "night-time recovery" for athletes in multi-day events.
Air Quality Risk (AQI > 100)	Low  (excluding fires)	Increased frequency	High risk to asthma-prone participants during lengthened fire seasons.

Heat-Risk Table Sources

To ensure the data in the Canberra 2040 heat-risk table is verifiable, here are the core technical references and reports used to synthesise those projections. These sources combine climate modelling from the CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), and the ACT Government:

• ACT Climate Change Snapshot (NSW Government/OEH) This is the foundational technical document for the region. It provides the "Near Future" (2030) and "Far Future" (2070) baseline comparisons for maximum temperatures, heatwave frequency, and the specific increase in days over 35°C.

• CSIRO/BOM Climate Change in Australia (Projections Tool) The source for the high-emissions (RCP 8.5) modelling. By selecting the "Southern Tablelands" cluster, you can extract the specific 2040–2060 variance for Canberra’s "tropical nights" (min > 20°C) and the increasing duration of extreme heat events.

References

•  1 in 15 ACT Emergency Department Visits Linked to Extreme Weather 
•  Australian Capital Territory Climate Change Snapshot
•  Climate Change in Australia Projections Tool
•  Climate Change Explained – ACT Climate Choices
•  Extreme Events in the ACT
•  Canberra’s Living Infrastructure Plan
•  ACT State of the Environment Report 2023 – Climate Trends
•  Heat, Humanity and the Hockey Stick: Climate Change and Sport in Canberra
•  Game, Set, Match: Calling Time on Climate Inaction
•  State of the Climate – Bureau of Meteorology

From Heatwaves to Lawsuits: Inside the Collapse of Australia’s Summer of Sport - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

The Australian summer of sport is reaching a breaking point as extreme heatwaves exceed 40°C with increasing frequency1. Current climate projections suggest that by 2040 many traditional summer games will be biologically unplayable during daylight hours2. Escalating infrastructure damage from floods and storms is creating a multi-billion dollar maintenance backlog for community clubs3. Hazardous bushfire smoke and declining air quality are forcing unprecedented match cancellations across professional and amateur leagues4. Sporting organisations now face significant legal liability regarding their duty of care for athlete safety in extreme conditions5. Urgent policy shifts toward "heat-proof" infrastructure and nocturnal scheduling are required to preserve national participation rates6.

Australia’s sporting identity is melting under the weight of a climate crisis that has turned ovals and courts into hazardous zones of extreme heat and environmental instability.

As the mercury routinely shatters records across the continent, the tradition of the Australian summer of sport is no longer a guaranteed rite of passage but a logistical nightmare for organisers and a health risk for participants.

The 2026 season has already seen major disruptions, with tennis players collapsing at Melbourne Park and community cricket matches across Western Sydney abandoned as temperatures surged past 44°C.

This is not a temporary anomaly but the start of a permanent shift where the biological limits of the human body are being tested against a rapidly warming atmosphere.

From the elite level down to the grassroots, the economic and social foundations of Australian sport are being undermined by infrastructure damage and rising insurance premiums.

If current emission trajectories continue, the very concept of a "summer season" may need to be abolished within two decades to protect the lives of athletes and spectators alike.

We are witnessing the slow-motion dismantling of a national secular religion, and the window for meaningful adaptation is closing faster than a stadium roof in a thunderstorm.

The Physiological Threshold: Playing in a Furnace

The most immediate threat to Australian sport is the rise in "extreme heat" days, defined as those exceeding 39°C, which are becoming a standard feature of the summer months¹.

When an athlete exerts themselves in high ambient temperatures, the body enters a desperate struggle to dissipate heat through sweat evaporation and increased peripheral blood flow.

Once the air temperature surpasses the body's skin temperature, typically around 35°C, the cooling mechanism of convection fails and the athlete becomes entirely dependent on evaporation.

In humid conditions, even this fails, leading to a rapid spike in core body temperature that can result in exertional heat stroke, organ failure or death⁷.

Recent data from the Australian Open indicates that the Heat Stress Scale, which factors in radiant heat and humidity, is being triggered more frequently than at any point in the tournament's history⁸.

Elite athletes like tennis stars and cricketers are essentially "industrial workers" in these conditions, but they often lack the same occupational health protections afforded to construction workers.

The long-term health implications are even more concerning, with research suggesting that repeated heat stress can lead to chronic kidney damage and lasting cardiovascular issues⁷.

In community sports, where medical supervision is minimal, the risk of a catastrophic health event is significantly higher than in the professional leagues.

Junior athletes and the elderly are particularly vulnerable, as their bodies are less efficient at thermoregulation, yet they are often the ones playing on unshaded suburban courts.

The mental toll is also rising, with "eco-anxiety" among young athletes increasing as they see their seasons curtailed by weather events they cannot control⁹.

Infrastructure in Crisis: The Multi-Billion Dollar Repair Bill

While heat dominates the headlines, the physical destruction of sporting facilities by floods, storms and droughts is creating a massive financial sinkhole for the Australian economy³.

The 2025 floods in Queensland and New South Wales destroyed hundreds of community clubhouses, many of which had only just been rebuilt following previous disasters¹⁰.

Synthetic pitches, once touted as a solution to drought, have proven to be vulnerable to extreme heat, with some surfaces reaching 60°C and melting or warping under the sun.

The Australian sports industry contributes an estimated $50 billion to the national economy, but a significant portion of this is now being diverted into emergency repairs rather than development¹¹.

Insurance premiums for clubs in "high-risk" zones have surged by up to 300% in some regions, making participation unaffordable for many working-class families³.

Local councils, which manage the majority of Australia’s sporting ovals, are struggling to keep up with the cost of water and soil maintenance during prolonged droughts.

When playing fields turn to hard-baked clay, the risk of ACL tears and concussions increases, leading to higher medical costs and lower participation rates.

This creates a vicious cycle where declining participation leads to less revenue for clubs, further reducing their ability to invest in climate-resilient upgrades.

The "Game On" grant scheme launched by the federal government provides some relief, but experts argue it is a drop in the ocean compared to the $12 billion in infrastructure currently at risk¹².

Without a coordinated national strategy for climate-proofing sports facilities, we risk a future where only the wealthiest private schools and elite clubs can afford to maintain safe playing environments.

The 2040 Horizon: A Night-Time Nation?

Looking ahead to 2040, climate modeling suggests that the traditional daytime summer schedule will become functionally extinct in many parts of Australia².

In cities like Penrith or Adelaide, the number of days over 40°C is expected to double, creating a situation where it is unsafe to be outdoors between 10:00 am and 6:00 pm for weeks at a time.

This will necessitate a radical shift toward nocturnal scheduling, requiring billions of dollars in investment for high-quality stadium and park lighting.

Alternatively, sporting bodies are considering moving the "summer" season to the shoulder months of autumn and spring, though this creates intense competition for venue space with winter codes like AFL and NRL⁶.

The concept of "climate migration" in sport is also emerging, with some events potentially relocating to Tasmania or New Zealand to find playable conditions.

The financial impact of lost broadcasting revenue from matches cancelled due to heat or smoke is estimated to reach hundreds of millions of dollars annually by the late 2030s¹.

We are also facing the "End of the Backyard Pitch," as rising water costs and extreme heat make maintaining suburban lawns a luxury of the past.

This loss of informal play is a direct threat to the talent pipeline that has traditionally fed Australia’s professional sporting leagues.

The social cost is equally high, as sport is often the primary vehicle for community cohesion in regional towns facing economic hardship.

If the local footy club or cricket team cannot play, the town loses its heartbeat.

Breathing Fire: The Impact of Bushfire Smoke

The Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20 changed the conversation around sport and air quality forever, showing that fire can stop a game even if the flames are hundreds of kilometres away⁴.

Hazardous air quality indexes (AQI) are now a standard metric that match officials must monitor alongside temperature.

Fine particulate matter, known as PM2.5, can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream, causing immediate respiratory distress and long-term inflammatory damage.

At the 2020 Australian Open, qualifying matches were disrupted when players collapsed while gasping for air in the smoke-filled atmosphere⁸.

Unlike heat, which can be mitigated with shade and water, there is no way to protect an outdoor athlete from toxic air other than cancelling the event.

This has led to a "cancelled season" phenomenon in regional areas, where junior sports have been suspended for months at a time due to persistent smoke haze⁴.

The unpredictability of bushfire seasons makes long-term scheduling almost impossible for administrators.

Furthermore, many indoor stadiums in Australia are not sealed or equipped with the HEPA filtration systems required to keep out bushfire smoke.

The cost of retrofitting these venues is another significant financial burden that few organisations are prepared to meet.

As fire seasons lengthen and become more intense, the window for safe outdoor activity continues to shrink.

The Legal Minefield: Duty of Care and Liability

As the scientific evidence linking extreme weather to athlete injury becomes irrefutable, sporting organisations are entering a new era of legal peril⁵.

Under Australian common law, organisations have a duty of care to ensure the safety of their participants, a duty that now extends to climate-related risks.

If a club ignores a "Level 5" heat warning and a player suffers a stroke, the club could be held liable for millions in damages.

This is causing a "policy panic" among insurance companies, some of which are beginning to exclude heat-related injuries from their standard liability coverage.

The Sports Medicine Australia (SMA) guidelines have become the "gold standard" for defense, but many small clubs lack the equipment to measure Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) accurately¹³.

There is also the question of "voluntary assumption of risk," but courts are increasingly skeptical that a 15-year-old athlete can truly consent to the risks of playing in 42°C heat.

Professional leagues are better protected by their collective bargaining agreements, but even they are facing pressure from player unions to implement stricter heat-stop rules⁵.

The potential for class-action lawsuits against sporting bodies that fail to mitigate climate risk is a significant and growing threat to the industry's stability.

Directors of sporting boards may also face personal liability for failing to disclose or manage the financial risks that climate change poses to their organisations.

In this climate, "business as usual" is no longer just a bad strategy; it is a legal liability.

The Regional Planner’s Mandate: Building for Resilience

To reduce long-term climate risk, regional planners and policymakers must immediately shift their focus from reactive repair to proactive, climate-resilient design.

First, all future sporting infrastructure must be built with "thermal safety" as a core requirement, incorporating passive cooling, natural shade canopies and advanced ventilation systems.

Planners must resist the temptation of cheap, high-maintenance synthetic surfaces that exacerbate the "urban heat island" effect and instead invest in heat-tolerant turf varieties and water-recycling systems¹⁴.

Second, there must be a national audit of existing facilities to identify those in high-risk flood and fire zones, followed by a managed retreat or significant reinforcement of these assets.

Third, policy must mandate the installation of solar-powered lighting at community ovals to facilitate a massive shift toward evening and night-time sports participation.

Fourth, regional planners should integrate sporting precincts into broader "cool island" strategies, using them as hubs for community cooling during extreme heat events¹⁵.

Finally, funding models for community sport must be overhauled to include "disaster resilience" premiums, ensuring that clubs in vulnerable areas have the capital to adapt before the next catastrophe strikes.

Adaptation and the Path Forward

The adaptation challenges facing Australian sport are immense, but they are not insurmountable if we act with speed and clarity.

Policy implications include a total rethink of the national sporting calendar and the possible creation of a national "Climate and Sport" taskforce to coordinate responses across all codes.

However, adaptation is merely a way of managing the symptoms of a much larger disease.

To stop the literal and figurative burning of Australian sport, we must address the root cause: the continued combustion of fossil fuels that is driving global warming¹.

The sporting community has a powerful voice and a unique ability to influence public opinion, and it must use that voice to demand a rapid transition to renewable energy.

If we fail to stabilize the climate, no amount of shade cloth or night-time lighting will be enough to save the games that define us.

The choice is clear: we either change the way we power our world, or we accept the end of the Australian summer as we know it.

The final whistle has not yet blown, but we are deep into injury time.

References

1. Climate Council of Australia (2021) - Game, Set, Match: Calling Time on Climate Inaction
2. The Guardian (2017) - Australian cities to have 50C summer days by 2040
3. Australian Sports Foundation (2024) - The Financial State of Community Sport Report
4. NSW Health (2025) - Health Impacts of Bushfire Smoke and Sport
5. LexisNexis Australia (2024) - Duty of Care: Climate Liability in Australian Sport
6. Victoria University (2025) - Rethinking the Australian Sporting Calendar
7. The Lancet Planetary Health (2021) - Heat stress and the athlete: A medical review
8. Tennis Australia (2026) - Australian Open Extreme Heat Policy and HSS Metrics
9. Australian Psychological Society (2024) - Eco-anxiety and the loss of seasonal play
10. Queensland Government (2025) - Sport and Recreation Disaster Recovery Program
11. Clearinghouse for Sport (2025) - The Economic Impact of Sport in Australia
12. Department of Infrastructure (2025) - Game On: Community Infrastructure Grants
13. Sports Medicine Australia (2025) - Extreme Heat Guidelines
14. Landscape Architecture Australia (2024) - Climate Resilient Design for Public Spaces
15. AHURI (2022) - Planning for Cool Cities and Resilient Communities

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Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Global biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation threaten worldwide security and prosperity, and is already causing crop failures, intensified natural disasters, and infectious disease outbreaks across all regions, says the British Government’s latest Security Assessment.

The official analysis of  Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security,  says vertebrate populations have declined by an average of 68% since 1970, with freshwater species dropping 84%, pushing Earth past six planetary boundaries including biosphere integrity. 

Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to irreversible collapse, risking cascading effects like geopolitical instability, resource conflicts, mass migration, and economic shocks as food and water scarcity intensifies.  

Halting this trajectory demands urgent global action, such as the Kunming-Montreal Framework's targets for protecting 30% of land and ocean by 2030 and reforming harmful subsidies.

Biodiversity loss is a global threat

Halting and reversing biodiversity loss Some of the solutions to biodiversity loss, such as forest protection and restoration, can only be enacted locally.  Parties to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, including the UK, agreed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in 2022, a landmark agreement to ‘halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030.’  Its targets, if met, would change the current trajectory and include: • Protecting 30% of global land and ocean by 2030; • 30% of global nature to be under restoration by 2030; • Mobilising finance to close the funding gap of $700bn; • Reducing risks from pesticide usage by 50% by 2050; • Eliminating or reforming harmful subsidies by $500bn per year. It would also be necessary to meet the Paris climate agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions and ecosystems. 

The average size of monitored wildlife populations declined by 73% between 1970-2020. 

Populations of vertebrate species have declined by an average of 68% since 1970. 

Freshwater ecosystem species populations have shown the largest losses, falling 84% in the same period.

The rate of extinction is tens to hundreds of times higher than the average over the past 10 million years. It suggests that a sixth mass extinction may be underway.

With current trends, global ecosystem degradation is highly likely to continue to 2050 and beyond. 

There is a high degree of uncertainty around the timing and pathways of ecosystem degradation, given the number and complexity of the drivers involved.

Food production is the most significant cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss.

As the global population grows, reaching 9.7 billion by 2050, the impact of food production on natural systems will intensify and it will become even more challenging to produce sufficient food sustainably.  

Biodiversity loss impacts national security

Nature is a foundation of national security. Biodiversity loss is putting at risk the ecosystem services on which human societies depend, including water, food, clean air and critical resources. 

 

The impacts will range from crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks to conflict within and between states, political instability, and erosion of global economic prosperity. 

 

Increasingly scarce natural resources will become the focus of greater competition between state and non-state actors, exacerbating existing conflicts, starting new ones and threatening global security and prosperity.
 

 

Degrading ecosystem functions Water regulation and cycling Soil formation Oxygen production Pollination Disease control Air quality Erosion control Food production Carbon storage	Physical and biological impacts Crop failure Fisheries loss Water and air pollution Water scarcity Novel diseases Floods, storms, landslides Changes to global weather patterns Loss of genetic diversity Global temperature rise
Human security risks Food shortages, inflation, famine Water insecurity Health risks Supply chain disruption Livelihood loss, poverty Loss of pharmaceutical opportunities Elite capture of resources Pandemic risk	International security risks Migration Extremism, terrorism Serious Organised Crime Political polarisation and instability Economic insecurity Interstate conflict, civil wars

Critical ecosystems are at risk of collapsing

If current rates of biodiversity loss continue, every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse. 

An ecosystem collapses when it passes beyond a critical threshold or tipping point, after which it can no longer maintain essential functions or structure, leading to extensive shifts to its size and composition. 

The ecosystem transitions irreversibly from one stable state to another. For instance, the Amazon basin collapse would see it shifting to a drier savannah state. 

Case study: protecting and restoring ecosystems improves food system and societal resilience to shocks. In Malawi, over 20 million trees have been planted and 42,000 hectares of degraded land rehabilitated.  This has supported over 500,000 local residents with improved access to water, diversified food production and income sources.  The number of participants depending on humanitarian aid has declined by 60%.  Source: Restoring ecosystems to boost resilience to climate shocks in Malawi, World Food Programme, 2023. Planetary boundaries are the safe limits identified by scientists for human pressure on nine Earth system processes crucial for maintaining a stable planet.  As of 2023, six boundaries have been crossed:  (1) biosphere integrity (including biodiversity loss);  (2) climate change;  (3) land use change;  (4) freshwater change;  (5) nutrient flows (nitrogen and phosphorus); and  (6) novel entities (chemical and plastic pollution).  The three remaining boundaries are: (7) stratospheric ozone depletion;  (8) atmospheric aerosol loading; and (9) ocean acidification.  Source: Stockholm Resilience Centre, 2023  Since the drafting of this report, a new version of this research has been published.

Collapse impairs an ecosystem’s ability to provide vital services including clean water, food production, and climate regulation. 

This could accelerate climate change and biodiversity loss and have catastrophic implications, including the collapse of major food sources and fundamental changes to global weather patterns and the water cycle. 

As biodiversity loss and degradation continue, impacts become more severe and the likelihood of ecosystems collapsing increases. It is likely that ecosystem collapses would happen concurrently given their shared drivers and feedback loops. 

There is a high degree of uncertainty around the timing and pathways of ecosystem collapse. 

The drivers of ecosystem degradation are approaching the known thresholds for collapse - for example, the Amazon is likely to collapse at 20-25% deforestation when combined with temperature rises and forest fires; it is currently at 17%.

But the thresholds for collapse could be higher or lower than the science has been able to identify: we could be closer to, or further away from, the thresholds than we think; and there could be additional thresholds that we do not know about yet. 

There is a realistic possibility that trends to date mean we have unknowingly crossed thresholds already and irreversible collapse of some ecosystems is inevitable (for example coral reefs), though we may not see the impacts for several years. 

There is a realistic possibility some ecosystems start to collapse by 2030 or sooner, as a result of biodiversity loss from land use change, pollution, climate change and other drivers. 

There is a realistic possibility that coral reefs in SE Asia and boreal forests will start to collapse from 2030, and rainforests and mangroves from 2050. 

Preventing ecological collapse would require the reduction of human impacts, alongside restoration of ecosystems. Restoration of some ecosystems (tropical forests) is more feasible than others (coral reefs, Himalayas).

National security risks from ecosystem collapse 

• Migration will rise as development gains begin to reverse and more people are pushed into poverty, food and water insecurity. A one percentage increase in food insecurity in a population compels 1.9 percent more people to migrate.
• Serious and Organised Crime will look to exploit and gain control over scarce resources. More people pushed into poverty will mean more opportunities for SOC to exploit (e.g. people trafficking and black markets in scarce food, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals). 
• Non-state actors including terrorist groups will have more opportunities resulting from political instability - e.g. acting as mercenaries or pseudogovernments. They may gain control over scarce resources. 
• State threats become more severe as some states become more exposed than others to food and water insecurity risks. 
• Pandemic risk will increase as biodiversity degrades, people move between countries and transfer of novel diseases between species becomes more likely. 
• Economic insecurity becomes more likely. Nature is a finite asset which underpins the global economy. It would take resources of 1.6 Earths to sustain the world’s current levels of consumption. The total annual value of ecosystem services to the UK was £87 billion in 2022 (3% of GDP).
• Geopolitical competition will increase as countries compete for scarce resources including arable land, productive waters, safe transit routes, critical minerals. 
• Political polarisation and instability will grow in food and water insecure areas and as populations become more vulnerable to natural disasters. Disinformation will increase. 
• Conflict and military escalation will become more likely, both within and between states, as groups compete for arable land and food and water resources. Existing conflicts will be exacerbated. 

References

UK Government – Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security

WWF & Zoological Society of London – Living Planet Report 2022

IPBES – Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Rockström et al. – Planetary boundaries framework

Steffen et al. – Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

UNEP – Global Environment Outlook 6

Convention on Biological Diversity – Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

FAO – The State of the World’s Biodiversity for Food and Agriculture

IPCC – Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Lovejoy & Nobre – Amazon tipping point

The collapse of Nature ... and what it means for us. - Julian Cribb

Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

AUTHOR Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

Worldwide, nature is collapsing and - according to the UK Government - will take human civilisation with it when it goes.

A new report from the UK states baldly what many countries’ governments and politicians are desperately trying to hide from their people: that environmental decline and collapse will hit all humans as hard as the animals and plants it is wiping out, as hard as global heating, nuclear war or any other catastrophic threat.

Worldwide ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten both national and global security and prosperity, says the British Government’s latest Security Assessment.

“The world is already experiencing impacts including crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. Threats will increase with degradation and intensify with collapse,” the report states. It warns that, without global action, the trend will continue beyond 2050.

“Cascading risks of ecosystem degradation are likely to include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration and increased inter-state competition for resources,” the report says, hinting at the wars to come.

The UK’s findings strongly echo those of the UN’s Global Environment Outlook 7, issued in September 2025.

This stated that “Humanity now faces perhaps the biggest choice it will ever make: continue down the road to a future devastated by climate change, dwindling nature, degraded land, and polluted air, land and water, or change direction to secure a healthy planet, healthy people and prosperity for all.”

“If we choose to stay on the current path – powering our economies with fossil fuels, extracting virgin resources, destroying nature, polluting the environment – the damages will stack up,” warned UN Environment Program (UNEP) chief Inger Andersen. Climate change will slash 4% a year off world GDP, food supplies will fail , millions will die from pollution, and the earth will become “a toxic garbage dump”.

The British Government adds that critical ecosystems that support major global food production and impact global climate, water and weather cycles will affect national security for most, if not all, countries.

“Severe degradation or collapse of these would highly likely result in water insecurity, severely reduced crop yields, a global reduction in arable land, fisheries collapse, changes to global weather patterns, release of trapped carbon exacerbating climate change, novel zoonotic diseases and loss of pharmaceutical resources.

“All countries are exposed to the risks of ecosystem collapse within and beyond their borders. Some will be exposed sooner than others and are likely to act to secure their interests, particularly water and food security.”

The UK highlights the following national security risks from ecosystem collapse:

· Migration will rise sharply as more people are pushed into poverty, food and water insecurity.

· Organised Crime will exploit scarcity and suffering leading to an increase in blackmarket trade in scarce food, drugs and strategic metals, human trafficking and slavery.

· Terrorist groups will discover fresh opportunities in political instability and may seek to control scarce resources.

· Internal threats will grow as individual countries face greater food and water threats.

· Pandemic risks will rise with the collapse of nature, due to mass migration, travel and new diseases passing between humans and animals.

· Economic insecurity is much more likely. Nature is a finite asset - whereas human demand now exceeds the Earth’s ability to supply.

· Geopolitical tensions will rise as countries compete over scarce resources including land, water, safe transit routes and strategic minerals.

· Political polarisation and instability will grow in regions subject to food and water insecurity and/or natural disasters.

· Disinformation will increase.

· More wars will break out within and between states, as groups and nations compete fiercely over dwindling food, land and water. Existing conflicts will get worse.

The headlines in the UK report were also underscored in Australia’s first national Climate Rish Assessment, and in two recent reports by the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group. Though these deal specifically with climate rather than the wider environment, the warnings about rising threats to national security and national sovereignty are identical.

At the back of this mounting menace to the human future is the issue that no politician dares to speak: the collapse of the environment, and of human civilization, is driven at root by overpopulation and overconsumption.

Global population is now approaching 8.3 billion people, who together consume 105 billion tonnes of materials a year – almost twice what the Earth can sustainably supply. That’s thirteen tonnes of materials to support every human – four times more than in the past.

Although its growth rate is slowing somewhat, population is not expected to reach its peak, 10.3 billion people, until the 2080s. Then it will be five times the carrying capacity of the Planet. Meanwhile materials consumption is forecast to reach 160 billion tonnes a year by the 2060s.

The global environmental crisis that is now engulfing all nature as well as civilization stems directly from the human ‘industrial metabolism’, a number of scientific groups have pointed out. As we rip apart the biosphere in a furious search for ever-more materials, minerals, food, water and energy, the environment that cradles all life is disintegrating.

“These changes are mostly driven by social and economic systems run on unsustainable resource extraction and consumption,” warned Rockstrom and colleagues in 2024.

This brutal truth lies at the core of the British Government’s warning of impending global instability, collapse and mass migration. Even the most thick-skinned and ill-informed in society are beginning to sense there is something seriously amiss with the world. Though they often strike out at the wrong targets, their apprehensions are not wrong.

If we destroy the cradle of life on Earth, we will knowingly destroy ourselves.

Julian Cribb Articles

• Collapse is near, scientists warn
• De-icing the Earth: a fatal human choice. 
• Rivers of Death
• Unlike politicians, thermometers do not lie
• Welcome to BunkerWorld: Home of the rich and fearful
•  Wisdom of the elders
•  The black work of Big Oil
•  Stealing the Breath of Life
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These voices are the loudest in Australia’s ‘climate wars’ - Christian Downie

The Conversation - Christian Downie

Author Christian Downie Christian Downie is Professor of Political Science, School of Regulation and Global Governance, Australian National University.

There’s a reason political commentators refer to Australia’s “climate wars”. Every time a climate policy is put on the table, supporters and opponents come out in force and duke it out.

Last year, debates over Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions target led to a heated contest between various groups such as the Climate Council — arguing for strong action — and others such as the Business Council of Australia, which commissioned modelling to highlight the economic costs of a strong target.

This was not a one-off. Since at least the 1990s, emissions-intensive industries such as coal and gas and their lobby groups have had an outsized influence on climate policy. This includes groups such as the Minerals Council of Australia, which represents BHP, Rio Tinto and Whitehaven Coal, and Australian Energy Producers, which lobbies on behalf of BP, Shell and Woodside, among others.

Until now, we did not have a good understanding of who mobilises on climate policy in Australia, what side of the issue they fall on, and in which arenas they mobilise. In our new research, we found a core set of only 20 groups dominating climate policy debate in Australia, including gas corporations, industry lobby groups, environmental NGOs, and think tanks.

Who are these groups?

To find out which groups are most influential, we collected data on all organisations active on climate policy in Australia between 2017 and 2022. This included examining the number of groups as well as their volume of activity in the executive branch of government (responsible for implementing and enforcing laws, managing day-to-day administration and setting policy), the parliament and the media. 

The top 20 groups dominating climate policy
Based on volume of activity across all arenas (2017-2022)

Industry labels are inferred from broad service categories and do not appear in the original data.

Table: The Conversation Source: Mapping organised interests across arenas in Australian climate policy, Christian Downie & Darren Halpin Created with Datawrapper

For example, we identified 700,000 mentions of groups in articles about climate change from 13 media outlets, including The Australian and the Sydney Morning Herald.

As well as media records, we also built a database of organisations who actively consulted with government departments and provided evidence to parliamentary inquiries.

We found 20 groups accounted for more than half (52%) of all activity.

They included a mix of mining and energy firms, such as AGL, BHP and Rio Tinto and their lobby groups, such as the Minerals Council of Australia. It also included high-profile NGOs, such as the Climate Council, and think tanks active on climate policy, including the Australia Institute and the Grattan Institute.

It’s important to note we didn’t look at the content of the messages in the media, the parliament or in departmental consultations, just the number of organisations and the frequency of their activity.

Where do these groups stand on climate action?

Among the 20 groups, some are strong supporters of climate action, such as the Climate Council. By contrast, the Minerals Council of Australia has a long history of opposing climate policies dating back to the Kyoto Protocol in the 2000s and the short-lived carbon price in the 2010s.

Interestingly, there are more pro-climate groups than anti-climate groups. Most NGOs in our study tended to support action on climate change, including the Australian Conservation Foundation, Greenpeace and WWF.

Many of the business groups do not. But it’s not as black and white as this might suggest. Firms and business advocacy groups are not unified. A growing number of renewable energy companies now mobilise in support of climate policy, often through advocacy groups such as the Smart Energy Council.

Interestingly, many industries active on climate policy don’t have a hardwired position. Rather, they sometimes support and sometimes oppose climate policy. This is often because their commercial interests are only indirectly impacted by climate policies, such as firms in the technology or finance industries.

These somewhat “neutral” groups actually account for the majority of groups active on climate policy in Australia.

Does this vary by arena?

We also explored whether some groups dominate the media more than the parliament, or the parliament more than the executive. For example, are environmental NGOs more active in the media than in Senate hearings? Are business groups more active in consultations with the government departments that make up the executive branch of government?

Interestingly, we found the media is the only arena where fossil fuel interests dominate. For example, groups typically opposed to climate action represent 43% of all media mentions, compared to 20% in support and 36% neutral.

Engagement in climate change policy in media
Number of engagements by type of organisation and stance of the organisation.

News Media data are mentions in Australian news media on articles on climate change; Social media are mentions in tweets of seed accounts of climate policy active entities in tweets mentioning climate change.

Chart: The Conversation Source: Mapping organised interests across arenas in Australian climate policy, Christian Downie & Darren Halpin Created with Datawrapper

Engagement in climate change policy in legislature
Number of engagements by type of organisation and stance of the organisation.

Legislature data sourced from appearances/evidence to committee inquiries on climate change Chart: The Conversation Source: Mapping organised interests across arenas in Australian climate policy, Christian Downie & Darren Halpin Created with Datawrapper

Engagement in climate change policy in the executive government
Number of engagements by type of organisation and stance of the organisation.

Chart: The Conversation Source: Mapping organised interests across arenas in Australian climate policy, Christian Downie & Darren Halpin image Created with Datawrapper

This begs the question – why does the media appear to have a strong bias for reporting pro-fossil fuel messages?

One explanation consistent with overseas studies is simply that messages from business coalitions and very large businesses are more likely to receive media coverage than other types of organisations, such as environmental NGOs.

These organisations are likely to have high standing in the media because they are viewed as key players in policy debates with inside knowledge. Certainly in Australia, the largest firms and lobby groups mobilised on climate change are tied to? fossil fuel industries.

Do these groups matter?

As we sweat through another of the hottest summers on record, the federal government will rightly remain under pressure to put in place further policies to cut carbon pollution. In fact, recent polling shows one in two Australians want action on climate change “even if this involves significant costs”.

Who mobilises to support or oppose climate policies will likely have a big influence on policy outcomes such as increasing renewable electricity in the grid, phasing out petrol and diesel vehicles or stopping new coal and gas projects

Our research shows a core set of groups, including firms in the coal and gas industries, that are likely to have an outsized voice in such policy debates.

While this does not always equate to influence, it is an important precondition. In the media in particular, it appears fossil fuel interests have the loudest voice.

Links

Climate wars, carbon taxes and toppled leaders: the 30-year history of Australia’s climate response in brief​

With 2035 emissions targets set, what Australia does next will help shape global efforts to keep 1.5°C alive​

Membership and benefits: our members – Minerals Council of Australia​

Members – Australian Energy Producers​

Investigating networks of corporate influence on government decision-making: the case of Australia’s climate change and energy policies​

These voices are the loudest in Australia’s ‘climate wars’​

Australia’s 2035 climate target is coming. Here’s how we’ll know if it’s good enough​

What is a climate target, and how does Australia’s new one for 2035 stack up against other countries?​

Australian government lobbied to protect fossil fuel industry from IPCC criticism​

These voices are the loudest in Australia’s ‘climate wars’ (news feature)