Albanese Tells Climate Week That Gas Will Firm Australia's Renewable Surge - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Albanese tells Climate Week NYC gas will firm
the renewables behind Australia's 2035 target

Key Points

Anthony Albanese called the 62% to 70% target for 2035 ambitious and achievable at Climate Week NYC.[1] Treasury modelling released with the target projected an economy A$2.2 trillion bigger by 2050 under a 65% target.[2] The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) says gas can support reliability during extended low wind and solar output.[3] Households install about 10,000 batteries each week, reaching more than 500,000 systems in the past year.[4] Australia pledged A$100m to the Pacific Resilience Facility and A$350m for climate-resilient infrastructure across the region.[4] Former defence chief Chris Barrie says the government has yet to set out a climate security framework.[5]

Communities that rebuild after one flood or fire now brace for the next. 

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called that cycle repeated trauma when he addressed the opening of Climate Week New York City (NYC) on Monday. 

The next flood or fire, he said, is a matter of when rather than if.^[5]

The Prime Minister paired a 62% to 70% emissions cut target for 2035 with a claim that gas will firm renewable supply. 

Fossil fuel experts and former security leaders responded that credibility depends on action at home. 

This article tests the claims against official data and independent evidence.^[1][5]

The 2035 Target and Its Paris Obligations

Australia's 2035 target requires emissions cuts of 62% to 70% below 2005 levels. The range builds on a 43% cut by 2030 and net zero by 2050. Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean called it 'ambitious but feasible'.^[2]

Albanese told delegates that the range is 'ambitious yet achievable'. He cited rapid renewable growth and household battery uptake as evidence. He said electrification reduces emissions while maintaining economic growth.^[1][4]

Under the Paris Agreement, each country must lodge a new Nationally Determined Contribution, or emissions pledge, every five years. Each pledge must exceed the previous one. Australia adopted the agreement in 2015 alongside 194 other parties.^[2]

Alongside the target came an A$5 billion Net Zero Fund and A$2 billion for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation. Treasury modelling published on the same day projected an economy A$2.2 trillion bigger by 2050 under a 65% target. Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that a disorderly transition would leave the economy A$1.2 trillion smaller.^[2]

Gas and the Firming Question

Albanese told the audience that Australia's renewable potential, firmed by gas-powered generation, can deliver its emissions target. Firming means supplying controllable power that fills gaps when wind and solar output falls.^[1]

AEMO's 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities says gas can support reliability during extended low wind and solar output. The operator describes a mix in which renewables are firmed by storage and backed up by flexible gas generation. New gas investment may need infrastructure and fuel supply that no single developer can provide.^[3]

Former German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said Australia and Türkiye lack coal phase-out dates. Natalie Jones of the International Institute for Sustainable Development noted Australia ranks third among fossil fuel exporters. Murujuga traditional custodian Raelene Cooper warned that approving Woodside's North West Shelf extension would weaken Australia's Pacific standing.^[1][6]

From 1 July 2027 the government will require gas exporters to supply the domestic market with 20% of exports. The ministers say the scheme shields households from price spikes and avoids supply shortfalls. AEMO's 2026 Gas Statement of Opportunities still forecasts southern supply gaps from 2030 without further investment.^[7][8]

Renewables Progress and Grid Reliability

Renewables supplied about one-third of generation four years ago, according to the Prime Minister. At last summer's peak they supplied about half the grid. Albanese emphasised expanding domestic storage and renewable infrastructure to maintain grid stability.^[4]

Households install about 10,000 batteries each week, reaching more than 500,000 systems in the past year. The market operator counts 2.4 gigawatts, or 2.4 billion watts, of household batteries added since 1 July 2025. For each megawatt (one million watts) of new rooftop solar, households installed about 2.5 megawatts of battery capacity.^[3][4]

Newly added wind and solar capacity can now power six million households, Albanese said. AEMO says 9.1 gigawatts of new generation and storage reached full output in 2025-26, with a 40 gigawatt pipeline following. AEMO also forecasts data centres rising from about 3% to 13% of grid electricity by 2035-36.^[4][9]

The 2026 outlook forecasts no shortfalls against the reliability standard before 2030, an improvement credited to new generation and storage. The assessment counts 18.9 gigawatts of utility-scale batteries among committed and anticipated projects. Without about 26 gigawatts of anticipated projects, AEMO would have requested retailer supply obligations in Queensland and New South Wales.^[3][9]

Pacific Security and Repeated Trauma

The energy transition is now a national security priority, Albanese told delegates. He noted that Pacific nations contributed least to the crisis yet rank among the most vulnerable to it. Former defence chief Chris Barrie says the government has yet to set out a climate security framework.^[4][5]

Communities face repeated trauma from floods and fires unless action intensifies, Albanese warned. He said the resilience of communities and emergency responders should no longer be the status quo. He linked a forecast record El Niño, a cyclical warming of Pacific waters, to potential extreme heat, bushfires and floods.^[1][5]

Australia pledged A$100m to the Pacific Resilience Facility, a Pacific-led climate financing mechanism targeting A$1.5bn. A further A$350m backs climate-resilient infrastructure across the region. In Palau a solar and battery project will displace more than a million litres of diesel yearly.^[4]

Australia's pitch for a non-permanent UN Security Council seat in 2029 and 2030 leans on its climate credentials. The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group says coal and gas expansion undercuts Albanese's claim to climate leadership. Vanuatu's climate minister Ralph Regenvanu called the North West Shelf extension to 2070 internationally wrongful.^[5][6]

Political Reactions and Accountability Gaps

The Business Council of Australia called the range ambitious and said it demands significant investment and major reform. Business groups had warned that cuts beyond 70% would risk more than A$150 billion in exports. Chief executive Bran Black said the balance must protect future generations while keeping industry competitive.^[2]

When the range was announced in September 2025, Opposition leader Sussan Ley said it failed on cost and credibility. Ley said the announcement offered households no estimate of the cost. In November 2025 Liberal legislators dropped net zero by 2050 and the legislated 2030 target.^[2][10]

At the announcement, Greens leader Larissa Waters called the range a "shameless capitulation" to coal and gas corporations. The Australian Conservation Foundation said current plans reach only the bottom of the range. Environmental groups had sought cuts of at least 80% below 2005 levels.^[2]

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said advice made 70% the limit of achievable ambition. The Climate Change Authority weighed more than 500 submissions and the best available science before recommending the range. Kean said the range requires Australia to halve emissions over the next decade.^[2]

The address backed the 2035 target with measurable evidence on batteries, wind and solar. AEMO's outlook shows a stronger pipeline and no forecast shortfalls before 2030. Pacific programs report results in classrooms, solar power and diesel savings.

Accountability gaps remain in the government's climate record. Gas firming sits beside an approval that extends the North West Shelf project's operating life to 2070. Former security leaders say a climate security framework is missing.

Governance will decide the outcome. Legislated milestones, transparent reporting and a plan for fossil fuel exports would let Parliament and Pacific neighbours track delivery. Only verifiable delivery can reconcile the Climate Week promise with Australia's role as a leading fossil fuel exporter.

References

1. Albanese takes climate warning to New York, but fossil fuel experts test credibility. Brisbane Times coverage of 22 September 2026, as republished by Head Topics, covering the gas firming remarks and the scrutiny from fossil fuel experts.

2. Albanese unveils 2035 emissions reduction target, and billions in new funding. SBS News report of 18 September 2025 on the 62% to 70% target, Treasury modelling and the reactions from business, the Opposition, the Greens and environmental groups.

3. 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities for the National Electricity Market. The full AEMO outlook, which details the role of gas, household batteries, utility-scale storage and anticipated projects in maintaining reliability.

4. Albanese: Climate Change Is a Security Issue for the Pacific. Sustainability Magazine report of 21 September 2026 listing the battery, household, target and Pacific funding figures from the Climate Week NYC address.

5. 'Worse, more intense': PM's climate warning to leaders. AAP wire report of 22 September 2026, republished by Michael West Media, covering the repeated trauma warning and the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group response.

6. Federal government approves Woodside gas project extension, with some conditions. SBS News report of 12 September 2025 on the North West Shelf approval, Murujuga custodian Raelene Cooper and Vanuatu's legal warning.

7. Joint media release: Albanese Government to secure Australian gas for Australian users. Ministerial release of 7 May 2026 setting the domestic gas reservation at 20% of exports from 1 July 2027.

8. 2026 Gas Statement of Opportunities. AEMO's March 2026 gas outlook, which forecasts southern supply gaps from 2030 without further investment.

9. Reliability can be maintained with timely investment as demand grows. AEMO media release of 25 August 2026 summarising the 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities and its reliability outlook.

10. Australia's Opposition Ditches Net Zero as PM Woos UN on Climate. Bloomberg report of 13 November 2025 on the Liberal Party dropping net zero by 2050 and its legislated 2030 target.

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Trump Administration’s Climate Retreat Reshapes Global Action - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

America’s climate retreat is reshaping
domestic regulation and international environmental diplomacy

Key Points

The United States completed its Paris Agreement withdrawal in January 2026 and also began leaving the UN climate convention.[1] The Green Climate Fund lost United States participation and its board seat after the administration ordered withdrawal.[2] EPA repealed most Biden-era power plant greenhouse gas requirements while proposing removal of remaining federal standards.[3] The administration has removed the legal foundation for federal vehicle greenhouse gas regulation by rescinding the 2009 endangerment finding.[4] More than 400 contributors to the Sixth National Climate Assessment were dismissed during a review of its scope.[5] The United States opposed binding production limits during global plastics treaty negotiations alongside major petrochemical producers.[6]

At a Geneva negotiating table in August 2025, the United States delegation arrived with a sharply different position on plastic production. 

Australian negotiators were among more than 100 countries seeking stronger controls across the plastics lifecycle. 

The American delegation opposed global production caps and supported measures centred on waste management and recycling.^[6]

The episode reflected a wider policy direction under President Donald Trump. 

Energy production, regulatory reduction and domestic economic interests have become central organising principles across climate policy. 

The consequences extend from Washington to vulnerable communities, international finance and countries such as Australia that rely upon continued global cooperation.

International Climate Diplomacy

The United States formally left the Paris Agreement on 27 January 2026 after notifying the United Nations of its withdrawal one year earlier. 

The Paris Agreement links national climate plans through a common framework for progressively stronger action.^[1]

The administration also directed United States agencies towards withdrawal from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The convention provides the institutional foundation for the annual climate negotiations and the Paris framework.^[7]

The Green Climate Fund subsequently received formal notice of United States withdrawal and the immediate vacation of its board seat. The fund finances climate mitigation and adaptation projects across developing countries.^[2]

For Australia and Pacific island states, American disengagement changes the diplomatic environment surrounding climate finance and regional resilience. The UN climate chief said the withdrawal represented a step back from global climate cooperation.^[7]

Power Plants And Fossil Fuels

On 14 September 2026, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced repeal of most greenhouse gas requirements imposed on United States power plants under the Biden administration.^[3]

EPA estimated the repeal would save about US$310 billion. The agency also proposed removing remaining federal greenhouse gas standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants under section 111 of the Clean Air Act.^[3]

The regulatory change affects the electricity sector, where coal and natural gas remain significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions. EPA argues that the rollback will reduce compliance costs and strengthen reliable domestic energy supply.^[3]

The regulatory debate carries consequences beyond carbon accounting. Power generation also affects particulate pollution, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide and other pollutants associated with respiratory and cardiovascular disease.^[8]

Vehicles And Methane

In February 2026, EPA finalised rescission of the 2009 greenhouse gas endangerment finding. The finding had provided the statutory foundation for federal regulation of greenhouse gases from motor vehicles.^[4]

EPA simultaneously repealed subsequent greenhouse gas standards covering light-duty, medium-duty and heavy-duty highway vehicles and engines. The administration described the combined action as a major deregulatory measure.^[4]

The transport changes affect a sector responsible for a substantial share of United States greenhouse gas emissions. State authorities retain important regulatory powers, creating continuing legal disputes over federal and state jurisdiction.^[9]

Methane policy has also moved towards greater regulatory flexibility for fossil fuel producers. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas released during extraction, processing and transport of coal, oil and natural gas.

Climate Science And Public Evidence

In April 2025, the administration dismissed contributors working on the Sixth National Climate Assessment. The congressionally mandated assessment examines climate trends, impacts, risks and responses across the United States.^[5]

The dismissal followed reductions affecting the United States Global Change Research Program, which coordinates the assessment across federal agencies. The disruption left the future scope and timetable of the assessment uncertain.^[5]

EPA has also changed how it values health benefits from air pollution controls. The agency said it would cease monetising avoided deaths and healthcare savings in some regulatory analyses involving fine particles and ozone.^[8]

EPA has subsequently reconstituted its Science Advisory Board and Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee. The agency says the new bodies will provide independent scientific advice under its revised approach to environmental regulation.^[10]

Clean Energy Funding And Global Consequences

The administration has also sought to redirect federal clean energy funding created under the Inflation Reduction Act. Several programmes have become subjects of litigation over whether executive agencies possess authority to terminate congressionally authorised grants.^[11]

A federal judge ruled in September 2026 that EPA unlawfully terminated the US$7 billion Solar for All programme. The programme was designed to expand solar access for almost one million lower-income households.^[11]

The international dimension is equally visible in plastics diplomacy. During the 2025 treaty negotiations, United States officials opposed global production caps while supporting recycling, waste management and product design measures.^[6]

Australia supported a stronger treaty covering production, chemicals and pollution across the plastics lifecycle. The divergence illustrates how American policy choices can intersect directly with Australian environmental diplomacy.^[6]

The Trump administration has altered United States climate policy across regulation, finance, science and international diplomacy. Its approach places energy production and regulatory reduction ahead of the federal mitigation framework developed under previous administrations.

For Australia, the consequences reach beyond American emissions. International climate finance, Pacific resilience and multilateral negotiations all depend upon cooperation among major economies.

The emerging accountability question therefore extends across institutions and borders. Courts, states, scientists, communities and international partners remain significant checks on how far federal policy can move.

References

1. UNFCCC, United States of America. Records United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on 27 January 2026.

2. Green Climate Fund, Statement on United States Withdrawal. Records the United States withdrawal from the fund and its board.

3. US EPA, EPA Finalises Repeal of 2024 Power Plant Regulations. Details the September 2026 power-sector regulatory repeal and proposed further action.

4. US EPA, Final Rule: Rescission of the Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding. Records the February 2026 vehicle emissions regulatory changes.

5. Reuters, US Dismisses All Authors of Key Climate Report. Reports the dismissal of contributors to the Sixth National Climate Assessment.

6. ABC News, Australia and US at Odds on Plastics Treaty. Examines the differing Australian and United States positions during treaty negotiations.

7. UNFCCC, Statement on US Withdrawal from the UNFCCC. Records the UN climate chief’s response to the United States withdrawal.

8. Associated Press, EPA Changes Valuation of Air Pollution Health Benefits. Reports changes to federal calculations of healthcare savings and avoided deaths.

9. Reuters, Trump Administration Appeals California Auto Emissions Ruling. Covers continuing federal and state disputes over vehicle emissions regulation.

10. US EPA, Selection of Science Advisory Board Members. Records the agency’s 2026 reconstitution of its scientific advisory board.

11. Reuters, Judge Rules Trump EPA Unlawfully Terminated Solar Grant Programme. Reports the September 2026 federal court ruling concerning Solar for All.

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As a Record El Niño Gathers, Australia's Fire, Reef and Policy Risks Converge - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Forecasters expect a record-strength El Niño as Australia
enters a warm spring with unresolved climate policy questions

Key Points

Global warming is set to breach the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C threshold within five years, and El Niño could lift 2027 towards 1.7°C or 1.8°C.[1] The Bureau of Meteorology recorded a relative Niño3.4 index of +2.51°C in mid-September, and most models forecast a peak above +3.0°C.[2] BoM forecasts above-average temperatures for most of Australia and drier conditions across parts of the south-east from October to December.[3] Queensland crews attended more than 180 fires in one September weekend, and the Warrego Highway closed in both directions.[4] Corals in Nyinggulu (Ningaloo) lagoon habitats suffered 61 per cent average mortality after the 2025 marine heatwave.[5] Current policies leave about 245 million tonnes of residual emissions in 2050, while 42 more fossil fuel projects await approval.[1]

A Plainland fire in the Lockyer Valley forced evacuations and closed the Warrego Highway on Sunday 6 September. 

Flames reached within a few metres of homes, and Queensland crews attended more than 180 fires that weekend. 

Some temperatures were the hottest September maximums recorded since 2019.^[4]

El Niño is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that reshapes weather patterns worldwide. 

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says its influence on global temperatures can peak in the following year. 

Murdoch University's Bill Hare writes that research suggests this could temporarily lift warming towards 1.7°C or 1.8°C in 2027.^[6][1]

Thresholds, Spikes and Overshoot

Hare writes that global warming is set to breach the 1.5°C threshold within five years. The 2015 Paris Agreement treats 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels as its central temperature limit. 

Consequences range from rapidly melting ice sheets to bleached coral reefs.^[1]

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) recorded a relative Niño3.4 index of +2.51°C for the week ending 13 September. The index isolates central Pacific warming from broader ocean warming. 

Most models forecast a peak above +3.0°C, higher than any event since records began in 1950.^[2][6]

Overshoot describes global temperatures rising above 1.5°C for a period before returning below the limit. Hare says global action could still hold peak warming near 1.7°C, with a return below 1.5°C by 2100. That outcome requires urgent and ambitious government action, and net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the 2060s.^[1]

Every fraction of a degree, and every year above 1.5°C, inflicts irreversible ecological damage, Hare writes. Heat stress on corals accumulates with both intensity and duration, which links damage to time spent above thresholds.^[1][5]

Heat, Rain and Early Fire

BoM forecasts above-average temperatures for most of Australia over coming months. Below-average rainfall is likely from October to December across parts of southern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. 

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a sea temperature contrast, could develop and deepen spring dryness in the south and east.^[3]

Every El Niño differs, BoM advises, and a strong event can deliver modest effects in some regions. Early 2026 brought a wet La Niña, El Niño's opposite phase, and many regions have been wetter than usual. Parts of southern Queensland are drought declared, and officials say dry conditions are moving further east.^[3][4]

Greg Mullins, a former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner, says danger periods in the Northern Tablelands have moved earlier. Seasonal outlooks also determine when firefighting aircraft contracts activate and when official danger periods begin. 

Queensland officials expect elevated fire conditions to persist for weeks until significant rain arrives.^[7][4]

The 2019-20 Black Summer fires killed 33 people and destroyed 3,094 houses. Over one billion animals are estimated to have perished, and 810 species and communities were prioritised for urgent intervention. Mullins links that season to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a negative Southern Annular Mode, a wind pattern.^[8][7]

Reefs Under Repeated Heat

Coral bleaching occurs when heat-stressed corals expel the algae that supply their colour and energy. Hare cites mass bleaching across the Great Barrier Reef, Ningaloo and Scott Reef. After 2024 bleaching, the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) recorded record northern and southern Reef declines.^[1][9]

Degree heating weeks (DHW) measure accumulated coral heat stress, with bleaching likely at 4 and mortality risk at 8. Nyinggulu (Ningaloo) recorded more than 20 DHW in 2025, and lagoon corals suffered 61 per cent average mortality. 

Rapid warming compresses that accumulation, which can push many reefs past both thresholds within one summer.^[5]

AIMS program leader Mike Emslie says coral cover now oscillates between record lows and highs within short periods. Fast-growing corals decline first because they are sensitive to heat, cyclones and coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish. A late-summer monsoon in 2026 brought a reprieve from bleaching, and regional cover rose slightly or stayed similar.^[9][10]

The Reef bleached in consecutive years in 2024 and 2025, the second such run in a decade. Cyclones, floods and crown-of-thorns starfish compounded heat stress in 2024 and again affected parts of the Reef in 2026. AIMS describes the pattern as an ecosystem under stress.^[9][10]

The Emissions Gap

Australia is among the world's biggest fossil fuel exporters. Climate Analytics links Australian fossil fuel production and exports to roughly 4.5 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. Fossil fuels also supply about 90 per cent of the country's raw energy.^[1]

Climate Analytics modelling shows Australian net emissions must fall 55 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. Current policies barely meet the existing 2030 target of a 43 per cent reduction. By 2050, Hare projects 245 million tonnes of residual emissions, pollution left after cuts, needing offsets.^[1]

Ambitious pathways require coal production to fall about 80 per cent by 2035. Liquefied natural gas (LNG), gas chilled into liquid for shipping, would need to fall about 25 per cent. Coal exports would need to fall 95 per cent before 2040.^[1]

Electricity would need to reach 50 per cent of national energy demand by 2035, up from 25 per cent. Current policies deliver 33 per cent by 2035, Hare writes. Mining, one of few industries with rising fossil fuel use, could reach zero emissions by 2045 through electrification.^[1]

Policy, Law and Pacific Neighbours

The 82 per cent renewables target for 2030 is non-binding. The Australian Energy Market Operator says the target is likely out of reach. Hare argues that binding status would speed the rollout, potentially reaching 96 per cent renewables by 2035.^[1]

A federal policy called the Safeguard Mechanism sets legally binding pollution limits on large industrial facilities. Industrial emissions appeared to fall 2.3 per cent in 2025, less than half the 4.9 per cent required. Hare says the 2026-27 review is the moment to fix enforcement and the unlimited offsets that reduce net emissions.^[1]

Hare counts 37 new, expanded or extended fossil fuel projects approved by the Albanese government, with 42 more pending. He says a fossil fuel phase-out would signal leadership to Pacific neighbours already facing rising seas. Australia is set to lead talks at COP31, the United Nations climate conference, in November.^[1]

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an advisory opinion in 2025, a formal legal view delivered on request. It found that licensing new fossil fuel projects can be an internationally wrongful act. Hare argues that credibility at COP31 depends on meeting domestic targets.^[1]

A record-strength El Niño is forming while Australian reefs, fire agencies and communities carry the effects of recent extremes. Forecasters at BoM and the WMO have supplied the early warning. Preparation now depends on decisions made in Canberra and state capitals.

Accountability rests with governments. A binding renewables target, a stricter Safeguard Mechanism and approvals aligned with the ICJ opinion sit within federal control. Each lever answers a gap that scientists, courts and market operators have identified.

The evidence shows costs accumulating with every year above 1.5°C. The 2026-27 Safeguard review and COP31 negotiations will show whether Australian governance matches the science. Delay compounds the risks facing frontline communities and ecosystems.

References

1. Australia must double down to meet our climate targets. Our new study shows how (Murdoch University News, republished from The Conversation). Bill Hare of Murdoch University and Climate Analytics sets out overshoot risks, Australia's emissions pathway and the policy reviews ahead.

2. Southern hemisphere monitoring: El Niño continues to strengthen (Bureau of Meteorology). The Bureau's monitoring page reports the current Niño3.4 value and the forecast for peak El Niño strength.

3. BoM issues a fresh 'super' El Niño reality check for Australia (SBS News). SBS News reports the spring outlook from the Bureau and its advice that El Niño strength alone leaves Australian impacts uncertain.

4. Warning as hot conditions lead to outbreak of fires across Queensland (ABC News). ABC News reports more than 180 Queensland fires, the Warrego Highway closure and warnings of persistent fire conditions.

5. We knew Ningaloo's coral bleaching was severe. But what we found 6 months later was still a shock (The Conversation). Marine scientists report degree heating weeks above 20 and average lagoon coral mortality of 61 per cent at Ningaloo.

6. El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027 (World Meteorological Organization). The World Meteorological Organization outlines the near-certain persistence of El Niño through February 2027 and its global temperature influence.

7. El Niño is already here. But there's still a 'window of opportunity' (SBS News). SBS News reports a former fire commissioner's account of earlier danger periods and the climate drivers behind Black Summer.

8. Recovery Collection: Australia: Black Summer Bushfires 2019-2020 (PreventionWeb). PreventionWeb summarises Black Summer deaths, home losses, wildlife impacts and priority species and communities.

9. Great Barrier Reef more volatile with sharp declines in coral cover (Australian Institute of Marine Science). The Australian Institute of Marine Science details record coral cover declines and rising volatility after the 2024 mass bleaching.

10. Annual Summary Report of Coral Reef Condition 2025/26 (Australian Institute of Marine Science). The Institute reports stable or slightly higher coral cover in 2025-26 after a late-summer monsoon limited bleaching.

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Beetaloo Basin's First Gas Ignites a Climate Reckoning in the Northern Territory - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Fracked gas is flowing from the Beetaloo Basin
as critics condemn a climate catastrophe

Key Points

The Northern Territory government declared first gas from the Beetaloo Basin a turning point on 1 September 2026.[1] The Climate Council called the declaration a sick joke, warning of a genuine climate bomb.[2] Independent analysis found official emissions modelling underestimated true pollution by up to eighty four per cent.[3] Northern Territory taxpayers guarantee seventy five million dollars if Tamboran Resources defaults on its loan.[4] Scientists warn extraction threatens the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer and the culturally significant Mataranka Springs.[5] The government plans to power new AI data centres with Beetaloo gas despite mounting community opposition.[1]

Northern Territory Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro turned a valve wheel at a remote outback wellhead south of Darwin. 

Orange flags lined the highways into Darwin's northern suburbs, spelling out a confident promise. Gas from the remote Beetaloo Basin would finally power Territory homes, businesses and heavy industry.^[1]

The Northern Territory Government declared the first gas flow a defining turning point for regional energy security. 

Climate scientists and advocacy groups across the country delivered a starkly different verdict within hours of the ceremony. 

The Climate Council swiftly called the project a genuine climate bomb with lasting global consequences.^[2]

A Turning Point Declared

Chief Minister Finocchiaro called the milestone a pivotal moment in modern Territory history. 

The Country Liberal Party government forecasts more than seventeen billion dollars in long-term economic value. 

Officials say the sprawling project will support over thirteen thousand jobs across the Territory by 2040.^[1]

Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King defended the project against mounting climate criticism at the ceremony. She insisted no previous Australian government had done more to combat climate change than her own. King said gas expansion and Australia's national net zero commitments must work together.^[1]

The gas flow followed the Northern Territory's 2018 decision to lift its long-standing fracking moratorium. That decision came after the Pepper Inquiry recommended one hundred and thirty five separate safeguards. Regulators eventually granted environmental management plan approvals for the Shenandoah South pilot project.^[6]

Critics say genuine reconciliation between rapid gas expansion and national emissions targets remains largely unresolved. Market Forces policy analyst Morgan Pickett warned major Australian banks faced severe financial exposure from ongoing fracking. He said the underlying economics of Beetaloo simply fail to add up.^[1]

Modelling a Climate Bomb

Climate Council modelling suggests full basin production could unleash enormous long-term climate pollution. Chief Executive Amanda McKenzie said emissions could triple Australia's entire annual domestic pollution footprint. That trajectory would span roughly two full decades of continued extraction and mass export.^[2]

A Murdoch University analysis directly challenged the federal government's own emissions modelling for the basin. Researchers found the CSIRO-backed report underestimated true pollution levels by up to eighty four per cent. Their revised figures instead project 1.2 billion tonnes of emissions by 2050.^[3]

Scientists expect worsening extreme heat, flooding and cyclones across the Top End this century. Frontline communities near Elliott and Mataranka face the most direct and immediate exposure. Climate Council leaders say the region is already bearing disproportionate climate harm today.^[2]

Greens leader Larissa Waters described the milestone as a terrible day for the global climate. She said the project would accelerate dangerous global warming for generations of Australians. Advocacy groups echoed her alarm at weekend rallies held across greater Darwin.^[1]

Jobs, Royalties and Risk

Independent economist Saul Eslake called the milestone significant rather than genuinely transformative for the Territory. He noted annual royalty estimates varied enormously across different government and industry projections. Figures ranged from thirty six million to over two hundred and twenty million dollars annually.^[1]

Northern Territory taxpayers carry significant financial exposure if the project falters commercially. The Territory government guaranteed seventy five million dollars of Tamboran Resources' loan facility. That contingent liability only applies if the company and other guarantors default.^[4]

Early gas flows at a modest forty terajoules daily under a binding Territory supply contract. Developers hope the flow rate will justify expansion toward liquefied natural gas exports. Much of the basin's eventual output still remains destined for distant overseas markets.^[1]

Analyst Morgan Pickett argued the project carries severe financial risk for major Australian lenders. He named the banks Macquarie, ANZ and Westpac as exposed to fossil fuel decline. Pickett said the global gas sector faces rapid and permanent scaling back.^[1]

Water, Country and Consent

The Beetaloo Basin sits above the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer, a vital regional water source. That aquifer feeds the Mataranka Springs and sustains the headwaters of the Roper River. Traditional Owners and scientists regard these springs as culturally significant sites.^[5]

A federal science committee warned that groundwater drawdown poses a genuine risk to the region. It found impacts would likely intensify as exploration expands toward full production. Pepper Inquiry recommendations on water baselines remain only partially implemented years after release.^[7]

Northern Land Council chair Matthew Ryan welcomed the fresh agreement reached with native title holders. He said the moment showed what could be achieved through genuine industry partnership. Ryan described the arrangement as key to sustained regional economic growth for outstations.^[1]

Elsewhere, opposition simmers over plans to expand gas-fired data centres near Darwin's rural fringe. A Berry Springs community meeting drew around one hundred concerned local residents. Locals said the proposed industrial scale directly threatened their quiet rural lifestyle.^[1]

The Renewable Alternative Overlooked

Analysts increasingly question whether new gas remains genuinely cheaper than renewable alternatives over time. Solar and battery storage costs have fallen sharply across the past decade. Critics argue Beetaloo instead permanently locks the Territory into a declining fossil fuel source.^[8]

A full renewable transition across the Top End would require substantial grid infrastructure upgrades. The Northern Territory remains entirely isolated from the wider national electricity market network. Analysts say new transmission and storage capacity would still take years to build.^[6]

Prioritising clean energy could genuinely reshape employment across remote, gas-dependent regional economies. Industry groups warn thousands of construction and supply chain jobs remain tied to fossil fuels. Advocates counter that renewable projects could instead deliver comparable long-term regional employment.^[8]

Global gas markets also face genuine long-term uncertainty as major buyers accelerate their own transitions. Asian importers are investing heavily in renewable capacity and large-scale battery storage. That shift could ultimately weaken international demand for future Beetaloo gas exports.^[3]

The Beetaloo Basin now stands as a defining test of Australian climate governance. Government officials frame the project as vital energy security and economic opportunity. Scientists and advocates warn it locks in decades of avoidable pollution.

Genuine gaps persist between official emissions modelling and independent scientific analysis. Water resource protections, First Nations consent processes and financial safeguards remain contested and incomplete. Territorians face real exposure through public guarantees underwriting private fracking risk.

Accountability now rests with regulators, lenders and policymakers overseeing the project's expansion. Whether Beetaloo becomes a genuine turning point or a lasting climate liability depends on decisions still ahead. That reckoning will define the Territory's environmental legacy for generations.

References

1. Fracked gas from Beetaloo Basin flowing to Northern Territory power grid as of today. ABC News report on the first gas ceremony, government claims and community reaction.

2. First gas extracted from Beetaloo Sub-Basin in the NT. Coverage of the Climate Council's response describing the project as a climate bomb.

3. Beetaloo gas field is a climate bomb. How did the modelling make it look otherwise?. RenewEconomy analysis of Murdoch University research into underestimated emissions modelling.

4. NT taxpayers to be hit with $75m bill if fracking project fails. ABC News report on the Territory government's loan guarantee to Tamboran Resources.

5. Environmental rule of law and the Beetaloo Basin. Academic analysis of unresolved risks to the Cambrian Limestone Aquifer and Mataranka Springs.

6. Beetaloo Sub-basin. Northern Territory Government project page outlining the basin's development pathway and significance.

7. Beetaloo Basin Project Advice. Independent Expert Scientific Committee advice on cumulative water resource impacts from gas development.

8. Fracking the Beetaloo can and should be banned. Australian Conservation Foundation analysis of alternatives and long-term risks of Beetaloo development.

Farmers Carry the Weight of Industrial Emissions, New Report Finds - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Farmers for Climate Action says fossil fuel giants
are dumping their pollution problem onto Australian farmland

Key Points

Farmers for Climate Action's Shifting the Burden report finds industrial polluters are offloading emissions onto Australian farmland.[1] Coal, gas and oil companies buy most of Australia's carbon credits without cutting pollution at their own industrial sites.[5] Typical farm profits have fallen by nearly 30,000 dollars a year due to worsening climate pressures, ABARES data shows.[5] Farmland already delivers an unpaid carbon offset service estimated to be worth 1.2 billion dollars annually.[4] The report recommends lifting the Safeguard Mechanism's 2035 industrial emissions target to 70 per cent.[3] Public submissions to the federal Safeguard Mechanism review closed on 18 September 2026.[2]

A new report has found Australian farmers are carrying the cost of industrial pollution twice over. 

Farmers for Climate Action commissioned the analysis from carbon and agriculture consultancy Regional Policy Solutions. 

The report is titled Shifting the Burden.^[1]

It arrives as the federal Safeguard Mechanism review approaches a critical deadline for public input. 

The scheme governs pollution from more than two hundred major industrial facilities across Australia. 

Public submissions on its future closed on 18 September, one day before publication.^[2]

The Role of Carbon Offsets on Farmland

The report identifies a clear driver behind the spread of carbon plantations across productive farmland. 

Industrial polluters increasingly buy land-based offsets rather than cutting pollution at their own facilities. 

Report author Oscar Pearse said this pattern reflects the government's least-cost abatement principle.^[3]

Farmland already delivers a carbon offset service that researchers estimate is worth 1.2 billion dollars annually. Agricultural land has long absorbed carbon through unpaid land sector accounting under national emissions rules. 

Farmers receive no formal payment or public recognition for this substantial contribution.^[4]

The report points to Tasmania's Rushy Lagoon property as a cautionary example of the trend. Farmland there was purchased outright for a large pine plantation built to store corporate carbon. 

Mr Pearse called such conversions a shortcut for polluters seeking to avoid direct emissions cuts.^[3]

To prevent further cases like it, the report proposes sorting carbon projects into three distinct tiers. A green tier would support working landscapes that stay fully integrated with active farming operations. 

Higher tiers covering large-scale conversions would face closer scrutiny before any approval proceeds.^[3]

Industrial Emissions vs. Agricultural Action

Agriculture has already reduced its own on-farm emissions considerably over recent years, the report notes. Growing support for integrating carbon abatement into productive properties has helped drive that steady progress. 

Coal, gas and oil corporations have made comparatively smaller cuts at their own industrial sites.^[5]

The report found that fossil fuel and resource companies purchase most of Australia's available carbon credits. These same sectors have largely avoided reducing pollution directly from their own operations and facilities. 

Farmers absorb the resulting pressure on their land while missing out on any profits.^[5]

Climate Council analysis identifies coal, gas and iron ore mining as the next major opportunity for cuts. These resource industries represent a substantial share of Australia's total industrial pollution output. 

Analyst Greg McLeod said resources companies still have strong options available to reduce their emissions.^[6]

Farmers for Climate Action argues that policy should target pollution reduction closer to its actual source. Land sector offsets should support genuine on-farm carbon gains rather than replace industrial action altogether. 

The group wants offsetting treated as a last resort rather than a routine default choice.^[3]

The Economic Impact on Farmers

The economic toll on farm households is already significant, according to figures cited from ABARES estimates. Typical farm profits have fallen by nearly thirty thousand dollars a year across recent seasons. 

That works out to roughly five hundred and fifty dollars less in every single week.^[5]

Worsening fires, droughts and steadily rising insurance premiums drive much of this ongoing financial decline. Climate change intensifies each of these separate pressures across farming regions in every state. Farmers absorb these mounting costs while also managing land that serves broader national carbon goals.

Beyond direct climate damage, farmers provide an unpaid carbon sequestration service valued in the billions. Former NSW Farmers president Mal Peters said this pattern has persisted for more than two decades. 

He said regional Australia deserves genuine recognition rather than continued silence from industrial polluters.^[4]

Carbon income does offer real diversification potential for some farm businesses seeking new revenue streams. Selling credits can supplement falling profits during especially difficult seasons marked by drought or flood. 

The report warns this opportunity should never substitute for genuine industrial accountability at the source.^[3]

Policy Reforms and "Least Cost Abatement"

Least-cost abatement lets big polluters choose whichever path to compliance happens to be cheapest. Farmland offsets are frequently cheaper than upgrading ageing industrial equipment or overhauling production processes entirely. 

This dynamic keeps pushing carbon plantations onto productive agricultural land across regional Australia.^[3]

The federal Safeguard Mechanism review offers a genuine chance to change this entrenched pattern. It covers more than two hundred facilities responsible for heavy industrial pollution each year. 

Energy Minister Chris Bowen launched the review to assess settings for the period beyond 2030.^[2]

The review will examine closely how the scheme should evolve once that decade closes. It places particular emphasis on domestic abatement, industrial decarbonisation and stronger energy security. 

A final report from the review process is expected sometime in early 2027.^[2]

The Shifting the Burden report recommends lifting the Safeguard Mechanism's target for 2035 considerably. It suggests a seventy per cent reduction goal to reflect real farm sector progress already made. 

This shift would demand far greater direct action from Australia's largest remaining industrial polluters.^[3]

Future of Agriculture and Food Security

Diverting food-producing land toward industrial offsets carries serious long-term consequences for the wider nation. Australia's food and fibre production capacity depends heavily on retaining large areas of working farmland. 

Uncoordinated carbon plantation growth could permanently reduce that essential productive capacity over time.^[3]

The report calls for tighter integration between land use, carbon policy and nature protection frameworks. Fragmented rules currently allow inconsistent decisions to be made across different regions and states. 

Farmers for Climate Action wants clearer national standards applied consistently to future land conversion approvals.^[3]

Uncoordinated carbon plantations also threaten regional communities that depend heavily on active local agriculture. Whole-farm conversions can hollow out small towns built around ongoing farming and associated services. 

Chief executive Verity Morgan-Schmidt said food production must remain the clear national priority.^[1]

Farmers hold a direct economic interest in seeing a genuinely strong national emissions target succeed. Weaker industrial reduction goals only increase long-term pressure on remaining agricultural land nationwide. 

A stronger Safeguard Mechanism would protect both farm livelihoods and Australia's broader food security.^[2]

Shifting the Burden makes a sobering case about Australia's climate accounting. Farmers already provide an unpaid service worth well over a billion dollars every single year. Industrial polluters continue buying that service instead of cutting their own emissions at the source.

The Safeguard Mechanism review offers a genuine opportunity for meaningful change to occur. Government decisions made in the coming months will determine who ultimately bears the ongoing cost. Farmland remains a finite resource that cannot keep expanding to match rising industrial demand.

Genuine accountability, rather than least-cost convenience, should guide the reforms that follow this review. Restricting major polluters from defaulting to farmland protects both farmers and national food security. 

The review's eventual outcome will help shape the future of Australian agriculture for decades ahead.

References

1. Shifting the burden: new report finds farmers carry load of industrial emissions from coal and gas, Farmers for Climate Action. Media release announcing the Shifting the Burden report and its key findings.

2. Bowen launches review of emission caps and credits for Australia's biggest carbon polluters, RenewEconomy. Details the scope, timeline and September 2026 consultation deadline of the Safeguard Mechanism review.

3. Farmers pay the price for big polluters: report details a shifting burden, The Land. Reports Oscar Pearse's findings, the Rushy Lagoon case study and the report's tiered offset recommendations.

4. F4CA report says farmers carry industry's climate load, North Coast Times. Covers the $1.2 billion unpaid carbon service estimate and comment from former NSW Farmers president Mal Peters.

5. Farmers demand fair go in fight with fossil fuel giants, Bega District News (AAP). AAP report citing ABARES farm profit figures and the concentration of carbon credit purchases among fossil fuel companies.

6. Australia's biggest polluters to face emissions review, The Senior (AAP). Covers Climate Council comment on the resources sector's emissions-reduction opportunities and the review's consultation deadline.

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Record Heat, Stalled Funding: Australia's Climate Risk Report, One Year On - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia marks one year since its first climate risk assessment
amid mounting policy inaction

Key Points

The Australian Climate Service received $22.9 million to compile 63 nationally significant climate risks over two years.[1] Disaster recovery costs are forecast to surge sevenfold by 2090, and heatwave deaths could quadruple under a 3°C warming scenario.[1] CSIRO staffing cuts and a $30 million funding reduction are weakening Australia's climate research capacity.[1] The government has approved six coal and gas project extensions since the assessment's release.[1] The Climate Council says Australia remains dangerously exposed to climate risk one year on.[2] Scientists describe the 2025-26 summer as "breakneck climate whiplash", with fires destroying 1,590 structures in Victoria alone.[5]

One year ago, the Australian Climate Service released the nation's first National Climate Risk Assessment. 

The report drew on more than 250 experts and identified 63 nationally significant risks across eight sectors. 

Government agencies now use the findings to guide infrastructure, health and emergency planning nationwide.^[1]

Twelve months on, Climate Council researchers say Australia remains dangerously exposed to climate risk. 

The government has left the original assessment without a follow-up plan or adaptation strategy. 

Communities across the country continue facing worsening floods, fires, heat and storms in the meantime.^[2]

The Assessment and Its Findings

The Australian Climate Service received $22.9 million over two years to complete the assessment. 

The agency is a partnership between the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia. Together they compiled more than 70 supporting documents on the nation's climate exposure.^[1][3]

The assessment identified 63 nationally significant climate risks across eight key systems. It found disaster recovery spending could surge sevenfold by 2090 under current settings. Heatwave deaths in capital cities could also quadruple at 3°C of global warming.^[1]

Coastal hazards could affect 1.5 million people by 2050 and three million people by 2090. Up to 70 per cent of native plant species may face conditions beyond their survivable range by 2050. Remote communities may also be forced to relocate because of extreme heat or rising seas.^[1]

The federal government delayed the report's release well past its original 2024 timetable. Publication finally came on 15 September 2025, nine months later than planned. That delay pushed the release well beyond the May 2025 federal election.^[1]

Policy Retreat as Emissions Expand

Since the assessment's release, the government has approved six coal and gas project extensions. Fossil fuel subsidies continue at a rate of at least $14 billion annually. Climate groups say the approvals directly undercut the assessment's own warnings.^[1]

Federal spending on disaster adaptation has fallen well short of earlier commitments. Annual funding under the Disaster Ready Fund dropped from a pledged $200 million to roughly $140 million for 2026-27. That reduction comes as disaster costs across the country continue climbing sharply.^[1]

The Climate Council says the shortfall leaves communities exposed to worsening disasters. Adjunct Professor Andrew Watkins, a lead author of the assessment, warns the risks remain alarming and clear. He says record pollution and record heat now form a dangerous combination.^[2]

Major polluters continue using loopholes in national industrial law to avoid genuine emissions cuts. Accountability gaps of this kind sit at the centre of the Climate Council's concerns. The Council argues stronger enforcement is essential to genuine emissions reduction.^[2]

Science Under Strain

CSIRO, the nation's peak science agency, has announced major staffing cuts. The reductions threaten Australia's capacity for future climate modelling and research. Researchers warn the cuts arrive at precisely the wrong moment for climate science.^[1]

Funding for the National Environmental Science Program has fallen by about $30 million. The Australian Climate Service has separately diverted more than $15 million to an external consulting firm. Scientists say every dollar diverted weakens the nation's future risk modelling.^[1]

The assessment's Future Climate and Hazard Report identified more than 30 significant gaps in national research expertise. Coordinating authors say the gaps leave Australia poorly placed to plan future adaptation. Filling these gaps will require sustained funding well beyond current levels.^[1]

Several other nations, including the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada and New Zealand, already conduct legislated climate risk assessments. Australia's framework remains voluntary, leaving future assessments dependent on political will. Experts argue legislation would guarantee the assessment becomes a lasting national practice.^[1]

A Summer of Climate Whiplash

Australia recorded its fourth-warmest year on record in 2025, with national temperatures 1.23°C above average. Sea surface temperatures around the continent were the warmest on record for a second consecutive year. Heatwave conditions gripped large parts of the country for much of the year.^[4]

Scientists describe the following summer as one of breakneck climate whiplash. Communities swung from catastrophic fire danger to record flooding within days. The Otways region on Victoria's coast became the clearest example of the pattern.^[5]

In January 2026, more than 200 fires burned across Victoria, some generating their own weather systems. The fires destroyed around 1,590 structures, including 451 homes. Port Augusta reached 50°C, the most southerly point on Earth to do so.^[5]

Spring brought further warning signs, with 78 bushfires recorded across south-east Queensland in early September 2026. A blaze near Plainland closed the Warrego Highway and threatened up to 20 homes in the Lockyer Valley. Firefighters described hot, dry conditions as creating dangerous and unpredictable fire behaviour.^[6]

Accountability, El Niño and the Road Ahead

Forecasters expect a record-strength El Niño to develop through the remainder of 2026. Climate models point to conditions capable of intensifying heat, drought and fire risk nationwide. Forecasters say the event could rival the strongest El Niño years since 1950.^[7]

On the assessment's anniversary, the Climate Council said Australia remains dangerously exposed to climate risk. Adjunct Professor Watkins warned a spring of extremes could again follow the record heat. He says Australia is flying blind without a coordinated national response.^[2]

Research suggests climate damage to coastal communities alone could approach $1 trillion by 2100. Researchers argue the figures underline the scale of the accountability gap facing policymakers. Everyday households already carry rising costs through insurance premiums and council rates.^[1]

Scientists who contributed to the assessment continue calling for regular, legislated risk reviews. They describe the current report as a foundation that still requires sustained investment and political commitment. Campaigners say sustained commitment alone will break the current cycle of inaction.^[1]

Twelve months after Australia received its clearest picture yet of climate danger, the response has fallen short of the warning. Funding cuts, fossil fuel approvals and a stalled adaptation plan sit alongside record heat and escalating fire risk.

The Australian Climate Service produced a rigorous, evidence-based assessment of national vulnerability. Its findings deserve sustained investment in science, adaptation and genuine emissions reduction.

Accountability now rests with policymakers and the communities demanding stronger protection. Australia's climate risk is documented in exhaustive detail across dozens of technical reports. 

The task ahead is turning that evidence into lasting, properly funded action for every affected region.

References

1. It's been one year since Australia assessed its national climate risk. But have we listened?. The Conversation details the assessment's funding, findings, delays and the government response since release.

2. Australia Faces Heightened Climate Risk One Year On. Climate Council statement marking the assessment's anniversary, including comment from lead author Andrew Watkins.

3. Assessing Australia's climate risks. The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water outlines the assessment's methodology and lead agencies.

4. Annual Climate Statement 2025. The Bureau of Meteorology's official record confirms 2025 as Australia's fourth-warmest year since 1910.

5. Breakneck Speed: Summer of Climate Whiplash. The Climate Council catalogues the 2025-26 summer's extreme events, including Victoria's January 2026 fire crisis.

6. Large bushfire causes major disruptions to Warrego Highway west of Brisbane. ABC News reports on the early spring bushfire outbreak across south-east Queensland.

7. ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a historically strong El Niño developing through late 2026.

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