The greatest threat to global security - Julian Cribb

Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

AUTHOR Julian Cribb AM ATSE is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency.  He is Co-founder, Council for the Human Future.  Julian Cribb's latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

A war is quietly being waged against humanity that threatens the security not only of all nations but of the entire planet and all its people.

The warning comes in the latest report from the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG), a taskforce of distinguished military and defence personnel headed by former Australian Chief of Defence, Admiral Chris Barrie.

The warning is particularly relevant to outmoded militaries like those of the USA and Russia, with their World War II force structures and assumptions, that are now being outgamed by asymmetric opponents, adding fresh meat to the 1920s proverb that “generals always prepare to fight the last war”.

According to the ASLCG, the war now being waged is not with bombers and warships, nor even with drones and smart missiles. It is being waged with misinformation – and its war aim is to cripple all efforts by humanity to avoid a climate catastrophe.

“Over the last two decades, anti-climate action propaganda and disinformation networks have grown into multi-billion dollar permanent campaigns that run across the entire information ecosystem, with expenditure globally of up to $7 billion dollars a year.” the report states.

“Power in this digitally networked age comes from dominance in the information space and (we) are now living in a world increasingly shaped by propaganda and disinformation rather than factual information.

“These campaigns may be best understood through a lens of information warfare, combining traditional media influence, coordinated online activity and algorithmic amplification to shape narratives and perceptions at scale.”

The Group has long argued that global heating constitutes the more dangerous security threat both at national and global level, and that traditional military thinking does not encompass the scale or imminence of this threat. Consequently, many militaries are trapped in a 20^th Century model of inter-nation conflict that has been superseded by far more grave and universal dangers.

The aim of the war is not only to wreck the global climate response, but also to undermine democracy, the group warns: “The overall objective is not simply to convince, but to degrade the information environment itself, creating confusion, mistrust and institutional delegitimisation that weaken democratic decision making on complex issues including climate and energy.”

“Climate disinformation is evolving from a communications issue into a national security challenge, with implications for…sovereignty, economic resilience, disaster readiness, institutional trust, and strategic autonomy in shaping the energy transition.”

“Currently there are offensives ranging across global information to turn back momentum on renewable energy and climate action, but also to attack democratic norms,” the report admonishes.

The strategy aims to control online content production and dissemination, via think tanks, corrupt PR companies, domination of social media, broadcast, cable and radio networks, the cultivation of high-profile ‘influencers’ to spread propaganda, and the mass deployment of bots and digital disruption, it explains.

To confuse and distort its effect, the narratives combine anti-climate-action sentiment with anti-immigration, antidemocracy, anti-journalism, anti-racial-equality, anti-LGBTQI, anti-science and anti-government themes, it adds, destroying the trust that should exist between a people and their government.

Prior to the election of Donald Trump, the US defence establishment released several reports in which it warned that global heating was a major threat to both US and world security. Such warnings have vanished as the Pentagon, along with other government departments, have been gagged from even mentioning climate and commanded to cancel their climate research. Coupled with this is the Trump push to increase fossil fuel use and discourage the spread of renewable energy. Such measures will greatly exacerbate the climate threat to both US and world security.

Climate deaths are already estimated at several million a year worldwide and affect all countries. They are expected to climb sharply as the planet heats. Climate fatalities include deaths from flood, fire, famine, heat and storm. To these must be added millions of deaths due to plastics, pesticides, air pollution, water pollution and toxic chemicals used in food, clothing and furnishings and other petrochemical products.

“The continued expansion of the use of fossil fuels is a death sentence to millions. There is no excuse for persistent delay in climate action,” the Director General of the World Health Organisation, Dr Tedros Gebreyesus has stated.

The goal of the fossil fuels $7bn disinformation campaign is thus nothing less than the systematic mass murder by industry of millions, potentially billions, of people – all for the sake of preserving profits in the oil, gas and coal sector. Governments, such as those of the USA, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries, Venezuela, China, Australia and Canada, are complicit. It is, as the ASLCG says, an act of war – and this mass slaughter is a war crime for which all the culprits deserve to be indicted.

The ASLCG makes several recommendations for dealing with the problem including tougher anti-trust laws, AI and social media regulation – but these are all national measures and, as such, will never be adopted by all 197 nations globally. This means the spreaders of deadly lies and disinformation will always have somewhere to hide.

In The Age of Lies, I warned that disinformation is, potentially, the biggest threat facing the human species – since it corrupts all public discourse, rational decision making by government or industry and by individuals. In other words, it prevents humanity from saving itself.

In How to Fix a Broken Planet, I proposed the adoption of a World Truth Commission to expose the liars to public scorn, and a World Integrity Service, which ranks websites and media sources according to their truthfulness. Such measures can at least let the public know whom to trust – and whom to ignore, for their own safety.

The war being waged by the fossil fuels lobby against humanity is universal. It will destroy their own grandchildren as surely as yours. It will certainly wreck civilisation and, as many scientists have warned, could end in human extinction.

It is intentional, uniquely evil and driven by pure greed. It’s cruelty, caprice and callousness is unmatched by any murderous regime or conqueror in the whole of history.

It must be stopped.

Julian Cribb Articles

• Turning Waste Into Wealth
• Up to our eyeballs in 💩💩💩
• Plasticide: a crime against humanity Our Rising Oceans
• Will climate change put women in the ascendant?
• When the water runs out...
• The great dying
• Australia issues ‘terrifying’ climate warning
• 'Died of a delusion': the fate of modern civilisation?
• Collapse is near, scientists warn
• De-icing the Earth: a fatal human choice. 
• Rivers of Death
• Unlike politicians, thermometers do not lie
• Welcome to BunkerWorld: Home of the rich and fearful
• Wisdom of the elders
• The black work of Big Oil
• Stealing the Breath of Life
• The Earth Uncloaked - a catastrophe in slow motion 
  
• Military experts warn of climate wars
• Tackling the Earth Emergency
• A distracted world marches steadily towards catastrophe

States have driven climate action until now. It’s time for the Australian government to step up - Chris Wright

The Conversation - Chris Wright, Macquarie University

Rachel Dulson Getty

Author

Chris Wright, PhD Candidate in Environmental Policy, Macquarie University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

For more than a decade, Australia’s emissions reductions have been driven not by the Federal Government but by the States and Territories, often in relative obscurity.

State governments took the lead in driving rapid uptake of renewable energy, driving emissions down even as the federal “climate wars” raged.

But the heavy-lifting era of the States may be coming to an end. Reaching the goal of cutting emissions by 62–70% (relative to 2005 levels) in less than a decade will require much stronger leadership at a Federal level.

States drove the first renewable surge

From 2013 to 2022, Australia endured a “lost decade” on climate policy, as successive Federal Coalition governments struggled to build durable national climate policy.

But emissions fell regardless. From September 2013 – when Coalition leader Tony Abbott became Prime Minister – until September 2019, national emissions fell by almost 12%. Emissions then fell sharply as COVID restrictions began in 2020, before a slight bounce, but overall emissions fell almost 20% during 2013–22.

Since then, however, our emissions haven’t changed much at all. Between September 2024 and September 2025, they fell just 1.8%. 

Australian emissions reductions have flatlined
Quarterly emissions in gigatonnes CO₂-e, seasonally adjusted and weather normalised.

Chart: The Conversation Source: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and WaterGet the dataEmbed Download imageCreated with Datawrapper

What happened during the supposedly lost decade? States took the lead through initiatives such as large-scale renewable energy rollouts in South Australia and Victoria, market-shaping reforms in New South Wales, and a more recent renewables surge in Queensland.

Aided by the Federal Clean Energy Finance Corporation, these efforts reshaped the electricity sector. National emissions cuts were delivered to Canberra on a silver platter, making it easier to meet national targets without substantial Federal effort.

When the Albanese Government came to power, it set a legal target to cut emissions 43% (from 2005 levels) by 2030. But this measure was made possible largely by state action.

State efforts also underpinned the new 2035 targets as well. Modelling last year by Climateworks suggested existing State and Territory policies could – by themselves – deliver national emissions reduction of 66–71% by 2035.

But just six months later, these assumptions look shaky. While some State Governments have hit sectoral speed bumps, others have shifted to outright backsliding.

What’s happening with the states?

In Western Australia and the Northern Territory, previously debated 2030 targets now lie abandoned.

In Queensland, signs of climate backsliding are clear in the new government’s Energy Roadmap, laying out plans to keep coal power until mid-century. The Government has cancelled large renewable projects and wants new gas-fired power stations to fill the gap. The State will likely still reach its 2030 emissions targets, but the 2035 goal now seems close to impossible.

South Australia has long been a leader on renewables. In 2007, renewables supplied just 1% of the State’s power. This year, renewables are forecast to supply 85%. But its efforts to build a green hydrogen industry as a way to create new exports and cut industrial emissions have hit a very rocky patch.

The SA government has disbanded its Office of Hydrogen Power and signed a ten-year contract to power the Whyalla Steelworks with gas. State Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis has acknowledged there are no Government-led plans to develop green hydrogen left.

The State’s success in cutting emissions from electricity means transport and farming are now the largest emissions sources. Emissions from these sectors will be much harder for the state to bring down alone.

New South Wales faces a different challenge: whether it can reach its legislated State targets in time. It has to roughly double its current rate of emissions reductions to do so, and questions remain over how fast it can roll out renewables – as well as whether it can cut emissions from coal mining.

The State’s huge Eraring coal station was slated to close in August last year, but this has been pushed back twice and it is now meant to close in 2029. The owners of Vales Point Power coal station similarly hope to extend its life. 

The closure of NSW’s Eraring Power Station has now been pushed back to 2029. CSIRO/Wikimedia, CC BY-NC-ND

Victoria’s nation-leading efforts to move away from gas have reduced fossil fuel emissions 22% since 2005. But the State’s overall emissions have been increasing since 2021. While offshore wind farms may offer new opportunities in the longer term, local and interstate transmission lines, transport and agriculture emissions will remain critical challenges.

Time for federal leadership

The 2035 emissions target is just six months old. But the Federal Government already faces a real challenge of its convictions.

On May 12, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will hand down his budget. Given the fuel crisis, increases in military spending and cuts to the NDIS, it’s unlikely we’ll see a big boost to renewables.

This would be a missed opportunity, given renewables produce energy locally, boost energy security and act against inflation.

The next test for the Government will be the Safeguard Mechanism review in July. This scheme has led to some emission cuts from big industrial facilities, though most cuts come from closures and operational shifts rather than direct reduction on site.

The mechanism could do much more. If the review leads to targeted sectoral reforms, a focus on onsite emissions intensity reductions and long-term signals providing clear investment horizons for onsite mitigation, it may just shift the needle towards real industrial transitions.

States can’t do it all

Australia is at a tricky stage. Federal climate progress has long been underwritten by a free dividend of emissions reductions delivered by State Governments.

Going forward, the Federal Government will likely need to shoulder much more of the heavy lifting and become more willing to intervene – especially as some States baulk at the challenge.

The Conversation Climate Change Articles

• We eat a lot of wheat. So how can we grow more in a changing climate? 
• Overheated cows, flooded highways, and now a fuel crisis: why Australia’s food system is in big troubl
• Searching for a ‘technofix’ to climate change has many dangers. Could radical humility save the planet? 
• Climate change means more landslides in NZ – but new tech can help reduce the risk 
• The carbon tax debate damaged Julia Gillard’s leadership – and good climate policy for years to come 
• What Australians really think about climate change
• People around the world will act on climate change to create a better society: study
• How well does the new Australian Curriculum prepare young people for climate change?
• Climate explained: why some people still think climate change isn’t real 
• ‘I tend to be very gentle’: how teachers are navigating climate change in the classroom

Back to top

Earth Day 2026 and the Politics of “Our Power”: Agency, Accountability and the Limits of Collective Action - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Earth Day 2026 reframes climate action around people
while power largely remains with governments and industry

Key Points

“Our Power” reframes climate agency but risks shifting responsibility to individuals 1 Government underperformance drives emphasis on behavioural change narratives 2 Earth Day pillars lack binding targets or enforcement mechanisms 3 Corporate participation raises persistent greenwashing concerns 4 Australian case studies reveal limits of household-led emissions reductions 5 First Nations leadership highlights alternative models of climate power 6

Reframing Power in a Warming World

Earth Day 2026 arrives under the banner “Our Power, Our Planet”, a slogan that signals urgency but also ambiguity about who truly holds agency. 

Organisers emphasise collective action, urging households, workers and communities to drive change through daily decisions and civic engagement. 

Yet the architecture of emissions remains dominated by energy systems, industrial production and policy frameworks that individuals do not control ¹.

The language of “our power” suggests a redistribution of responsibility that is both empowering and politically convenient. It invites participation while obscuring asymmetries between citizens and major emitters. 

This tension sits at the centre of Earth Day’s evolving narrative, particularly as global emissions continue to rise despite decades of awareness campaigns ².

In Australia, where climate impacts intensify through heatwaves, floods and bushfires, the question of agency is not abstract. Communities are adapting in real time, yet policy decisions on fossil fuel approvals and energy transition remain concentrated at federal and state levels. 

The gap between lived experience and structural power defines the stakes of this year’s theme.

From Policy Failure to Behavioural Focus

The shift toward individual and community action reflects a broader failure of governments to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement. Global emissions trajectories remain inconsistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, despite formal pledges and national targets ². In this context, behavioural change narratives have gained prominence as a complementary, and sometimes substitute, strategy.

Policymakers often endorse these narratives because they diffuse responsibility across society. Encouraging energy efficiency, dietary shifts and consumer choices appears politically feasible compared with regulating fossil fuel production or imposing carbon pricing. However, this approach risks underestimating the scale of structural transformation required.

Australia illustrates this dynamic clearly. While renewable energy investment has accelerated, new coal and gas projects continue to receive approvals, creating a policy contradiction that individual action cannot resolve. The emphasis on household responsibility can therefore function as a partial deflection from systemic accountability.

Pillars Without Enforcement

Earth Day 2026 outlines broad pillars centred on clean energy, climate education and community mobilisation. These themes align with global frameworks such as the Sustainable Development Goals, yet they lack binding targets or enforcement mechanisms ³. Participation remains voluntary, and outcomes depend on diffuse commitments rather than coordinated policy.

The absence of measurable benchmarks complicates efforts to assess impact. Organisers highlight participation rates and campaign reach, but these metrics do not directly translate into emissions reductions or biodiversity gains. Without clear indicators, the distinction between symbolic engagement and substantive change becomes blurred.

This pattern is not unique to 2026. Previous Earth Day campaigns have raised awareness at scale but struggled to demonstrate sustained environmental outcomes. The challenge lies in converting momentary mobilisation into long-term structural change, a transition that requires institutional support beyond annual events.

Initiatives and the Optics of Action

Flagship initiatives for Earth Day 2026 range from renewable energy pledges to local clean-up campaigns and digital advocacy drives. Many are funded through partnerships between NGOs, governments and corporate sponsors, reflecting a hybrid model of climate governance. The diversity of initiatives creates visibility, but also fragmentation.

In Australia, community-led programs addressing extreme heat and bushfire resilience have gained traction. Local councils invest in urban cooling strategies, while grassroots organisations promote adaptation measures in vulnerable regions. These efforts demonstrate practical benefits, yet their scale remains limited relative to national emissions challenges ⁵.

The balance between mitigation and adaptation also reveals a shift in priorities. As climate impacts intensify, more initiatives focus on coping strategies rather than emissions reduction. This adaptation turn reflects necessity, but it also signals the consequences of delayed systemic action.

Corporate Participation and the Greenwashing Question

Corporate involvement in Earth Day has expanded significantly, with major companies aligning themselves with the “Our Power” narrative. Many promote sustainability commitments and net-zero targets, often supported by voluntary disclosure frameworks such as climate-related financial reporting. However, the credibility of these commitments varies widely ⁴.

Critics argue that Earth Day provides a platform for reputational enhancement without sufficient scrutiny. Companies with high emissions profiles can participate alongside genuine climate leaders, creating a blurred landscape of accountability. The absence of strict vetting mechanisms reinforces concerns about greenwashing.

Evidence of long-term operational change remains uneven. While some firms have reduced emissions and invested in renewable energy, others rely on offsets or distant targets that defer action. The coexistence of progress and inertia underscores the limits of voluntary corporate engagement.

Workers, Unions and the Politics of Transition

The “Our Power” narrative increasingly includes workers as agents of change, particularly in emissions-intensive sectors. Trade unions have begun to engage with just transition frameworks, advocating for job security and reskilling as industries decarbonise. This reflects a recognition that climate policy must address economic realities.

In Australia, sectors such as mining and construction face significant transformation. Renewable energy projects create new opportunities, but they do not always align geographically or skill-wise with existing jobs. The transition therefore requires coordinated planning and investment to avoid social disruption.

Worker-led initiatives have shown potential in driving sustainability within industries. However, their impact depends on institutional support and regulatory frameworks. Without these, the burden of transition risks falling disproportionately on those least able to absorb it.

Households, Inequality and the Limits of Agency

Earth Day campaigns often highlight household actions such as reducing energy use, adopting electric vehicles and changing consumption patterns. These measures contribute to emissions reduction, but their aggregate impact remains constrained by systemic factors. Household emissions represent only a portion of national totals, and many decisions depend on infrastructure and policy settings ⁵.

Accessibility is another critical issue. Energy-efficient technologies and renewable installations often require upfront investment, placing them out of reach for lower-income households. This creates a disparity in who can participate in the “Our Power” agenda, raising questions about equity.

Behavioural science suggests that collective action can influence social norms and political outcomes. However, it rarely substitutes for structural change. The effectiveness of individual action depends on its integration with broader policy frameworks.

First Nations Leadership and Climate Justice

First Nations communities in Australia offer a different perspective on climate power, grounded in long-standing relationships with land and ecosystems. Practices such as cultural burning demonstrate how traditional knowledge can reduce bushfire risk and enhance biodiversity. These approaches are increasingly recognised as essential components of climate strategy ⁶.

Despite this recognition, inclusion in decision-making processes remains uneven. Funding and authority often remain concentrated in government agencies and external organisations. This limits the capacity of Indigenous communities to lead climate initiatives on their own terms.

Earth Day 2026 gestures toward climate justice, but the extent of meaningful power transfer remains contested. The difference between symbolic inclusion and structural change is central to evaluating the campaign’s integrity.

Measuring Impact in a Culture of Awareness

Assessing the success of Earth Day has long been a challenge. Participation numbers and media reach provide indicators of engagement, but they do not capture tangible environmental outcomes. Independent evaluations of campaign impact remain limited ³.

Historical evidence suggests that awareness alone does not guarantee action. Behavioural change often requires sustained incentives, regulatory frameworks and cultural shifts. Without these, the effects of annual campaigns tend to dissipate.

The persistence of climate inaction despite widespread awareness underscores this gap. Bridging it requires aligning public engagement with policy and economic transformation, rather than treating them as separate domains.

Conclusion: Power, Responsibility and the Path Forward

Earth Day 2026 captures a paradox at the heart of climate politics. It calls for collective action at a moment when systemic change remains uneven and contested. The language of “our power” resonates because it offers agency in the face of crisis, yet it risks obscuring where decisive authority actually lies.

The evidence suggests that individual and community action can catalyse change, but cannot replace structural reform. Governments, industries and financial systems continue to shape the trajectory of emissions and adaptation. Without their transformation, grassroots efforts will struggle to achieve the scale required.

The challenge for Earth Day is not to abandon its message of empowerment, but to anchor it in accountability. Collective action must complement, not substitute, systemic change. Only then can the promise of “Our Power, Our Planet” move beyond symbolism toward measurable progress.

References

1. IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report
2. UNEP Emissions Gap Report
3. Earth Day Organisation Overview
4. Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures
5. Australian Climate Change Authority Reports
6. CSIRO Indigenous Fire Management
7. IEA World Energy Outlook
8. Australian Bureau of Statistics Environment Data
9. Bureau of Meteorology State of the Climate
10. UN Sustainable Development Goals
11. Grattan Institute Net Zero Report
12. Australian Parliament Climate Policy Resources

Back to top

When the Heat Wins: How Climate Change Is Redrawing the Limits of Australian Sport - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Extreme heat is pushing Australian sport
towards physiological breaking point

Key Points

Elite sport faces physiological limits as WBGT thresholds are increasingly exceeded 1 Heat policies vary widely across codes and lag behind international standards 2 Grassroots sport bears disproportionate risk due to limited resources and governance gaps 3 Infrastructure and synthetic surfaces amplify heat exposure beyond ambient conditions 4 Economic pressures and broadcast demands shape unsafe scheduling decisions 5 Climate projections suggest outdoor sport may become routinely unsafe in parts of Australia 6

The afternoon sun settles heavily over suburban ovals and elite stadiums alike.

Temperatures climb past 40°C and humidity rises, creating conditions where the human body struggles to cool itself.

Across Australia, sport is colliding with a climate that no longer resembles the one it was built for.

Heat Thresholds and the Human Limit

Medical research identifies Wet Bulb Globe Temperature as the most reliable indicator of heat stress risk.

At WBGT levels above 28°C, sustained high-intensity activity becomes dangerous, while 32°C approaches the upper limit for safe exertion.

These thresholds are increasingly breached during Australian summers, especially in inland and western urban regions ¹.

Elite codes such as AFL and NRL rely on internal guidelines that allow play to continue well into high-risk zones.

Tennis, particularly at the Australian Open, uses an Extreme Heat Policy based on WBGT, yet matches often proceed until thresholds are exceeded.

This reactive approach reflects a system designed for cooler historical baselines ².

Physiologically, the body’s cooling system fails when sweat evaporation cannot offset heat gain.

This leads to rising core temperatures, cognitive impairment and in extreme cases, heat stroke.

Evidence from elite competitions shows repeated instances of players vomiting, collapsing or requiring medical intervention.

Code-Specific Risks in a Warming Climate

In AFL and NRL, heat compounds fatigue and increases collision risk.

Players experience reduced reaction time and impaired decision making, which may elevate concussion risk during high-speed contact.

Research links heat exposure to declines in neuromuscular function, amplifying injury probability ⁷.

Western Sydney and Perth have emerged as heat hotspots.

Matches in these regions now regularly occur under conditions that would have been considered extreme only decades ago.

Training loads are increasingly modified, but recovery remains compromised during prolonged heatwaves.

Cricket faces a different challenge rooted in duration.

Test matches at venues such as the Sydney Cricket Ground and Adelaide Oval expose players to hours of fielding in extreme heat.

Studies suggest sustained exposure above 40°C significantly elevates dehydration and heat illness risk ⁸.

Pitch conditions are also shifting.

Hotter and drier climates produce harder, faster surfaces, altering ball behaviour and increasing physical strain on players.

These changes may accelerate the decline of traditional formats already under commercial pressure.

Tennis illustrates the limits of adaptation.

At the Australian Open, matches have been halted under extreme heat rules, yet disparities persist between indoor and outdoor courts.

Players on uncovered courts face significantly higher risk, raising questions about equity and tournament integrity.

The Unequal Burden of Grassroots Sport

While elite athletes operate under structured policies, community sport relies on volunteers and fragmented guidance.

Junior competitions in regional Australia often proceed despite extreme heat due to scheduling constraints and limited oversight.

This creates a gap between policy intent and real-world practice ³.

Children are particularly vulnerable.

Their bodies heat up faster and cool less efficiently than adults, increasing the risk of heat illness.

Yet school sport policies vary widely, with enforcement often inconsistent.

Clubs with limited resources face difficult choices.

Access to shaded facilities, water infrastructure and medical support varies significantly.

Climate change is deepening inequalities across the sporting landscape.

Infrastructure Built for a Different Climate

Many Australian stadiums were designed for twentieth century conditions.

Open designs maximise exposure to sunlight, while limited shading leaves spectators and players vulnerable.

Retrofitting venues with cooling systems and roofs comes at significant cost.

Synthetic playing surfaces present additional challenges.

Artificial turf can reach temperatures 20°C higher than ambient air, intensifying heat exposure.

This effect is particularly acute in football and community sport settings ⁴.

Regional facilities face compounding pressures.

Drought, bushfire smoke and extreme heat reduce usability and increase maintenance costs.

New stadium investments risk locking in infrastructure that may become unsuitable within decades.

Scheduling in the Age of Extreme Heat

Australia’s traditional summer sporting calendar is under strain.

Cricket and tennis, long synonymous with summer, now contend with increasingly unplayable conditions.

Shifting seasons or expanding night schedules may offer temporary relief.

Broadcast and commercial pressures complicate reform.

Prime-time slots and contractual obligations often dictate scheduling decisions.

This creates tension between revenue imperatives and player safety ⁵.

Adaptation strategies have limits.

Hydration breaks and longer intervals provide marginal benefits in extreme heat.

Beyond certain thresholds, the risk cannot be mitigated through scheduling alone.

Spectators on the Front Line

Heat risk extends beyond athletes to spectators.

Open stadiums expose thousands of fans to prolonged heat stress, particularly during day matches.

Vulnerable groups, including elderly attendees and children, face heightened risk.

Attendance patterns are shifting.

Extreme heat events correlate with declining crowd numbers and increased medical incidents.

Stadiums are under pressure to improve shade, water access and cooling spaces.

The question of responsibility remains unresolved.

Leagues must balance commercial interests with public health obligations.

In extreme conditions, cancellation may become the only viable option.

Climate Projections and the Future of Play

Climate models project a sharp increase in extreme heat days across Australian cities.

By 2050, cities such as Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane could experience significantly more days above 35°C.

Under high-emissions scenarios, some regions may face conditions incompatible with outdoor sport ⁶.

Northern Australia is likely to reach critical thresholds first.

However, inland and western urban areas are also approaching limits due to urban heat island effects.

These trends challenge the long-term viability of existing sporting calendars.

Few leagues incorporate detailed climate modelling into planning.

Most responses remain reactive, driven by immediate conditions rather than long-term projections.

This approach risks leaving sport unprepared for accelerating change.

Governance and Policy Gaps

Australia lacks a unified national framework governing heat and sport safety.

Individual codes set their own policies, leading to inconsistency and gaps.

This fragmented system places responsibility on organisations with competing priorities.

Duty-of-care obligations are evolving.

Legal experts suggest that failure to adequately protect players and spectators could expose leagues to liability.

Insurance costs are already rising in response to climate risk.

A national standard could provide clarity.

Universal no-play thresholds based on WBGT would align Australia with emerging international best practice.

However, implementation would require coordination across federal and state governments.

Conclusion

Australian sport stands at a crossroads shaped by climate and culture.

The traditions that define summer, from cricket tests to suburban football, are increasingly at odds with rising temperatures.

Incremental adaptation has delayed the reckoning but cannot eliminate the underlying risk.

Transformation may prove unavoidable.

This could involve shifting seasons, redesigning infrastructure and redefining how and where sport is played.

Some formats may contract or relocate, while others evolve to fit a hotter climate.

The deeper question extends beyond logistics.

Sport occupies a central place in Australian identity, linking communities and generations.

As heat reshapes the conditions of play, it also challenges the cultural fabric that surrounds it.

The future of Australian sport will depend on how decisively institutions respond.

Without coordinated action, the limits imposed by physiology and climate will increasingly dictate outcomes.

In that scenario, the game does not adapt, it yields.

References

1. Bureau of Meteorology Climate Data
2. Sport Australia Heat Policy Guidelines
3. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Reports
4. CSIRO Urban Heat Research
5. ACCC Sports Broadcasting Reports
6. IPCC Climate Projections
7. British Journal of Sports Medicine Studies
8. Cricket Australia Heat Guidelines
9. World Health Organization Heat Health Guidance
10. Australian Government Climate Reports

Back to top

Australia’s Silent Disaster: Why the Nation Still Has No Plan for Extreme Heat - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Extreme heat is killing Australians
faster than policy can respond

Key Points

Australia lacks a coordinated national heat strategy despite rising mortality 1 Fragmented state systems create uneven protection across regions 2 Health systems undercount and underprepare for heat impacts 3 Housing and urban design amplify exposure to extreme temperatures 4 Energy costs and grid stress limit access to cooling 5 Vulnerable populations face disproportionate and escalating risks 6

A Hazard Without a Home

In January 2019, western Sydney suburbs baked through consecutive days above 40 degrees, with overnight temperatures offering little relief.

Ambulance callouts surged, power demand spiked, and hospitals reported increased admissions linked to dehydration and heat stress.

Yet the response remained largely local, reflecting a deeper absence at the national level: no unified strategy exists to manage Australia’s most lethal natural hazard.

Extreme heat kills more Australians than bushfires, floods, and cyclones combined, but it lacks the institutional architecture afforded to those disasters ^[1].

This gap is not accidental. It is the product of fragmented governance, competing policy priorities, and a persistent failure to treat heat as a systemic risk.

Federal Leadership and a Policy Vacuum

Responsibility for heat policy sits uneasily across federal portfolios, including health, environment, emergency management, and energy.

No single department holds clear authority, and no national framework coordinates these overlapping responsibilities.

While national adaptation strategies acknowledge rising heat risk, they stop short of defining operational responses or funding mechanisms ^[2].

Cabinet-level attention has historically focused on acute disasters such as bushfires, particularly after the Black Summer crisis.

Heat, by contrast, unfolds slowly and invisibly, often failing to trigger the same political urgency.

This disparity reflects not only institutional gaps but political calculus, where visible disasters command attention while diffuse risks are deferred.

Fragmentation Across States and Territories

Australia’s federal system leaves heatwave preparedness largely to states and territories, resulting in a patchwork of policies.

Victoria has developed one of the most comprehensive heat health plans, including early warning systems and community outreach.

Other jurisdictions operate with more limited frameworks, creating uneven levels of protection across the country ^[2].

Heatwave definitions vary between states, complicating coordination during multi-jurisdictional events.

Warning thresholds, communication strategies, and response protocols differ, particularly in border regions.

There is no formal mechanism for synchronising responses across states during prolonged national heatwaves.

This fragmentation leaves gaps in coverage, especially for mobile populations and regional communities.

Public Health Systems Under Strain

Despite being Australia’s deadliest natural hazard, extreme heat is not consistently treated as a public health emergency.

Heat-related deaths are often underreported, as mortality data frequently attributes deaths to underlying conditions rather than heat exposure ^[3].

This undercounting obscures the true scale of the problem and weakens policy urgency.

Hospitals and aged care facilities face growing pressure during heatwaves, particularly during prolonged events.

In 2009, Melbourne’s heatwave led to a significant spike in mortality and hospital admissions, exposing systemic vulnerabilities.

Training for frontline health workers remains inconsistent, with no national standards for managing heat-related illness.

The absence of a coordinated federal role limits the ability to integrate surveillance, response, and prevention across the health system.

Urban Planning and Housing Exposure

Australia’s housing stock is poorly adapted to extreme heat, particularly in older and low-income dwellings.

Many homes lack insulation or passive cooling design, leading to dangerous indoor temperatures during heatwaves ^[4].

Renters and public housing tenants are especially exposed, often unable to modify their homes or afford adequate cooling.

Urban heat island effects intensify these risks, with western Sydney recording temperatures significantly higher than coastal areas.

Despite these realities, national building codes have been slow to integrate thermal safety standards.

Urban greening and cooling infrastructure programs remain fragmented and underfunded.

The absence of a coordinated national approach leaves local governments to manage risks with limited resources.

Energy Systems and Economic Constraints

Access to cooling is increasingly shaped by energy affordability and grid reliability.

Electricity prices have risen sharply in recent years, placing air conditioning beyond reach for many households ^[5].

During heatwaves, peak demand strains the grid, increasing the risk of outages at precisely the moment cooling is most needed.

Policies to prevent disconnections during extreme heat vary across jurisdictions and are often temporary.

This creates a precarious situation for vulnerable households, who may ration cooling to manage costs.

Energy policy and climate adaptation remain insufficiently integrated at the national level.

The result is a system where the ability to stay cool depends increasingly on income.

Vulnerability and Inequality

Extreme heat disproportionately affects older Australians, people with chronic illness, outdoor workers, and low-income households.

Indigenous communities in remote areas face compounded risks due to housing quality, infrastructure gaps, and limited access to healthcare ^[6].

Outdoor workers, including those in construction and agriculture, operate under regulations that have struggled to keep pace with rising temperatures.

Protections vary by state, with inconsistent enforcement and limited adaptation to extreme conditions.

Social isolation further increases risk, particularly for elderly individuals living alone.

Outreach to culturally and linguistically diverse communities remains uneven, limiting the effectiveness of public health messaging.

These disparities underscore the absence of a coordinated national equity framework for heat resilience.

Climate Change and Escalating Risk

Climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves across Australia.

Recent decades have seen a marked rise in extreme temperature events, with records broken repeatedly ^[7].

Climate projections indicate further escalation, particularly in inland and western regions.

Policy responses have struggled to keep pace with this accelerating risk.

Compound events, such as heatwaves coinciding with drought or bushfire conditions, amplify impacts and strain systems.

Despite growing scientific certainty, integration of climate projections into policy remains uneven.

This lag between science and policy deepens vulnerability.

International Comparisons and Missed Opportunities

Countries such as France and the United States have implemented national heat action plans following deadly events.

These strategies include early warning systems, coordinated public health responses, and cooling centres.

Global health bodies have outlined best practices for heat resilience, emphasising national coordination ^[8].

Australia has engaged with these frameworks but has not adopted them comprehensively.

This reflects both institutional inertia and competing policy priorities.

The absence of a national strategy represents a missed opportunity to learn from international experience.

Data, Metrics, and Accountability

National datasets on heat exposure and outcomes remain fragmented.

There is no unified definition of a heatwave, complicating data collection and policy evaluation.

Government reporting on heat impacts lacks consistency and transparency.

Independent assessment of national preparedness is limited, with no dedicated oversight body.

This weakens accountability and hinders evidence-based policymaking.

Improved data integration would provide a clearer picture of risk and response effectiveness ^[9].

Political Economy and Barriers to Action

The absence of a national heat strategy reflects deeper political and economic dynamics.

Short-term electoral cycles discourage investment in long-term adaptation measures.

Competing priorities, including energy reform and housing affordability, crowd out heat policy.

Institutional fragmentation creates inertia, as responsibility is dispersed across multiple agencies.

There is limited political incentive to act on a hazard that lacks dramatic visibility.

Yet the economic cost of inaction is rising, driven by healthcare demand, productivity losses, and infrastructure stress ^[9].

A comprehensive strategy would require both political will and sustained funding.

Pathways Forward

A credible national heat strategy would integrate governance, funding, and implementation across sectors.

It would establish clear federal leadership while supporting state and local governments.

Key elements would include national heat warning systems, public health coordination, and investment in cooling infrastructure.

Building codes and housing standards would prioritise thermal safety.

Energy policy would ensure equitable access to cooling.

Indigenous knowledge and community-led adaptation would be embedded in planning.

Immediate actions could include expanding heat refuges and strengthening outreach ahead of each summer.

Conclusion

Australia’s failure to develop a national heat strategy is not a simple policy oversight. It is a reflection of how the country understands risk.

Heat lacks the spectacle of fire or flood, yet its impacts are deeper, more pervasive, and increasingly irreversible.

The current system distributes responsibility without coordination, leaving states, communities, and individuals to manage a growing threat alone.

This fragmentation is no longer tenable as climate change accelerates and extreme heat becomes more frequent.

A national strategy would not eliminate risk, but it would provide the structure needed to reduce harm and protect vulnerable populations.

The question is no longer whether Australia can afford such a strategy. It is whether it can afford to continue without one.

References

1. Climate Council, Heatwaves: Australia’s Silent Killer
2. Australian Government, National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy
3. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Heatwaves and Health
4. CSIRO, Adapting to Heat in Australian Homes
5. Australian Energy Regulator, Retail Market Performance
6. Lowitja Institute, Climate Change and Indigenous Health
7. Bureau of Meteorology, State of the Climate
8. World Health Organization, Heatwaves and Health Guidance
9. Productivity Commission, Natural Disaster Funding Arrangements
10. Australian Veterinary Association

Back to top

When the Heat Moves Indoors: Climate Change and the New Reality for Australia’s Pets - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Climate change is quietly reshaping
the everyday survival of Australia’s pet animals

Key Points

Extreme heat is increasing illness and death across pet species 1 Breed traits ageing and obesity amplify climate vulnerability 2 Parasites and diseases are expanding into new regions 3 Bushfire smoke is driving respiratory illness in animals 4 Emergency systems remain underprepared for pets 5 Rising costs are limiting access to veterinary care 6

A Heat Problem Hiding in Plain Sight

In January heatwaves now regularly push temperatures across Australian cities beyond levels once considered exceptional. 

For pet owners, the danger is no longer abstract. It sits in parked cars, in uninsulated homes and in backyards that retain heat long after sunset.

Dogs are particularly vulnerable because they rely on panting rather than sweating to regulate body temperature, a mechanism that quickly fails under sustained heat ^[1]. 

Cats can adapt behaviourally by seeking shade or reducing activity, but their resilience has limits when temperatures remain elevated overnight.

Veterinarians across New South Wales reported spikes in heat-related admissions during recent extreme weather events, particularly in western Sydney where urban heat island effects amplify exposure ^[10]. These are not isolated incidents but part of a pattern that mirrors rising national temperature trends.

Less visible are the risks facing birds, reptiles and aquatic pets. High metabolic rates make birds acutely sensitive to temperature shifts, while reptiles rely entirely on environmental heat, turning enclosed habitats into potential traps during heatwaves ^[7]. In fish tanks, warming water reduces oxygen levels, a dynamic already linked to increased mortality in controlled environments ^[9].

What emerges is a hierarchy of vulnerability that often runs counter to owner perception. The animals requiring the least day-to-day care are frequently the least resilient when conditions change.

Who Is Most at Risk

Not all pets face equal danger. Breed, age, and health status shape how animals respond to climate stress, often in predictable but poorly understood ways.

Brachycephalic dogs, including bulldogs and pugs, are among the most vulnerable because shortened airways restrict airflow and limit cooling efficiency ^[2]. During heatwaves, these structural disadvantages can become fatal within minutes.

Age compounds risk. Older animals have reduced cardiovascular capacity and slower physiological responses, making it harder to dissipate heat. Chronic conditions such as heart or respiratory disease further narrow the margin for survival, while obesity increases metabolic heat production and reduces respiratory efficiency ^[14].

Australian veterinary clinics are seeing these factors converge. During recent heat events, practitioners reported disproportionate impacts among older animals and those with pre-existing illness, suggesting climate change is magnifying existing health inequalities within pet populations ^[10].

Despite this, breeding practices have been slow to shift towards heat-resilient traits, raising uncomfortable questions about the future viability of some popular breeds in a warming climate ^[15].

A Shifting Disease Landscape

Climate change is not only altering temperature. It is reshaping the ecology of disease, expanding the range and persistence of parasites across Australia.

Paralysis ticks are moving further south as warmer conditions extend suitable habitats, exposing pet populations in regions previously considered low risk ^[3]. Heartworm transmission is also increasing in new areas, reflecting changes in temperature and humidity that favour mosquito vectors ^[16].

Warmer winters are particularly significant. They allow parasites to survive year-round, breaking the seasonal cycles that once guided preventative care ^[17]. For veterinarians, this has required a shift towards continuous prevention and more proactive screening.

The implications extend beyond animal health. As parasite ranges shift, so too does the risk of zoonotic disease, placing pets at the centre of a broader public health challenge ^[18].

Yet awareness among pet owners has not kept pace. Many still rely on outdated assumptions about seasonal risk, leaving animals exposed in newly affected regions ^[20].

Heatstroke in Minutes

The most immediate threat remains heatstroke, a condition that can escalate with alarming speed.

Early signs, including excessive panting, lethargy and disorientation, are often subtle and easily missed ^[1]. Once internal body temperature rises beyond critical thresholds, organ failure can follow rapidly.

In enclosed environments such as parked cars, temperatures can climb to lethal levels within minutes, even on days that feel moderate to humans ^[22]. The same risk applies to poorly ventilated homes during power outages.

Survival does not guarantee recovery. Animals that endure severe heatstroke frequently suffer lasting kidney or neurological damage, placing ongoing strain on both owners and veterinary services ^[23].

In Sydney and Melbourne, emergency clinics have documented sharp increases in heatstroke cases during extreme weather, underscoring how quickly conditions can deteriorate ^[10].

Smoke and the Air Pets Breathe

If heat defines summer, smoke now defines its worst moments. The Black Summer bushfires offered a stark preview of how air quality crises affect companion animals.

Fine particulate matter penetrates deeply into animal lungs, triggering inflammation and respiratory distress, particularly in pets with pre-existing conditions ^[4].

Veterinarians across affected regions reported increases in respiratory illness during the fires, with symptoms ranging from mild irritation to severe breathing difficulties ^[28].

While indoor air filtration can reduce exposure, it remains inaccessible for many households. As a result, repeated smoke events may contribute to longer-term respiratory disease in animals, although longitudinal data is still emerging ^[27].

In practice, veterinary advice during smoke events now closely mirrors public health guidance for humans, reflecting the shared vulnerability of lungs across species.

When Disaster Strikes

Extreme weather events are exposing another weakness: preparedness. While Australians are increasingly accustomed to bushfires floods and cyclones, planning for pets often lags behind.

Many evacuation centres still have limited capacity to accommodate animals, forcing difficult decisions for owners under pressure ^[30]. Transport constraints and a shortage of pet-friendly accommodation further complicate relocation.

During major bushfires, some residents delayed evacuation rather than leave animals behind, increasing risk to both human and animal life ^[28].

Animal welfare organisations play a critical role in bridging these gaps, coordinating rescues and temporary care. However, integration of pets into formal disaster planning remains inconsistent across jurisdictions ^[5].

The result is a system that still treats pets as an afterthought, despite their central place in Australian households.

The Cost of Keeping Animals Safe

Adapting to these risks carries a financial burden that is becoming harder to ignore.

Year-round parasite prevention, rising veterinary fees and the need for cooling infrastructure are increasing the cost of pet ownership. For many households, particularly those already under financial strain, these costs are becoming prohibitive ^[6].

This raises a broader equity issue. As climate pressures intensify, the ability to protect pets is increasingly shaped by income, access to housing and proximity to veterinary care ^[26].

Without intervention, these disparities risk creating a two-tier system of animal welfare, where some pets are protected and others are left exposed.

Conclusion

Climate change is no longer a distant environmental issue for Australian pet owners. It is an immediate and growing influence on how animals live, move and survive.

The risks are diverse, from heatwaves and smoke to shifting disease patterns and disaster exposure. What connects them is a steady erosion of the environmental stability that companion animals depend on.

Veterinary science is adapting, but adaptation at the household and policy level is uneven. Pets remain only partially integrated into climate planning, despite their deep social and emotional significance.

The challenge ahead is not only technical but cultural. It requires recognising that the impacts of climate change extend into the most intimate spaces of daily life, including the homes shared with animals.

How Australia responds will determine whether pets remain resilient companions or become overlooked casualties of a warming continent.

References

1. RSPCA Australia Heat Safety for Pets ↩
2. Heatstroke in Companion Animals Study ↩
3. Tick Distribution Changes in Australia ↩
4. AIHW Air Quality and Health ↩
5. Australian Emergency Animal Planning ↩
6. ACCC Veterinary Costs Report ↩
7. Bird Heat Physiology Study ↩
8. Aquatic Oxygen Decline Research ↩
9. Australian Veterinary Association Heatwave Report ↩
10. Obesity and Heat Risk Study ↩
11. Genetics and Climate Adaptation in Animals ↩
12. Heartworm Distribution Study ↩
13. Climate and Parasite Seasonality ↩
14. WHO Vector-Borne Diseases ↩
15. Pet Owner Awareness Report ↩
16. RSPCA Dogs in Cars ↩
17. Heatstroke Complications ↩
18. AIHW Social Determinants ↩
19. Air Pollution and Animal Health ↩
20. ABC News Bushfire Animal Impact ↩
21. Red Cross Pets and Disasters ↩

Back to top