We’re building a New York‑sized city every month. That’s worrying for our climate - The Conversation

The Conversation - Philip Oldfield   William Craft

Art Wager/Gett

Authors

Philip Oldfield   Head of School and Professor of Architecture, UNSW Built Environment, UNSW   William Craft   Senior Research Associate, School of Built Environment, UNSW

Each of us needs of a roof over our head, classrooms to learn in and offices or space to work from.

To meet this unprecedented demand for new buildings, globally we’re constructing the equivalent of an entire New York City every month.

This provides us with vital infrastructure, but also generates an enormous amount of world-warming emissions.

So how can we build what we need, without harming our planet? Our new research provides some answers.

The need to build

Creating new buildings benefits communities, cities and countries, and eases housing pressure. That’s why Australia’s National Housing Accord is aiming to construct 1.2 million new, well-located homes between 2024 and 2029.

But this Australian effort is dwarfed by the 96,000 new and affordable homes needed worldwide every single day. Tragically, hundreds of millions of people around the world endure homelessness. One in four are living in harmful conditions.

However, construction comes with a climate cost. Each time we build, we use materials and construction processes that release large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions – known as “embodied carbon”.

To understand the scale of embodied carbon, picture a square metre of floor space. Constructing that square metre would release around half a tonne of greenhouse gas emissions. Now scale that up to building a whole New York-sized city every month!

Conventional building practices can release huge amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. Iryna Melnyk/Getty

 

What we studied

Our new study examined trends in office building construction in Australia. We currently have about 170 million square metres of office space across the country, and are set to build a further 100 million square metres by 2049.

To investigate what effect these buildings have on global warming, we modelled their greenhouse gas emissions. We measured both their embodied carbon and operating carbon – the emissions from everyday heating, lighting, cooling and appliances.

We found Australian office buildings are projected to release 138 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions between 2024 and 2049. This number is equivalent to the annual emissions of 36 coal-fired power stations. Given offices make up just 20% of all commercial buildings in Australia, this is only a fraction of our total urban emissions.

A mixed picture

Most surprisingly, operating emissions represented 85% of the total in 2024, but are set to drop to just 15% by 2049. This is because Australia is decarbonising our energy sector by shifting from fossil fuels to solar, wind and other renewables.

However, if we keep building at our current speed and scale, our annual embodied emissions will remain at similar levels. Compared to operating emissions, it’s more difficult to lower embodied carbon because many material supply chains rely on fossil fuels and carbon-intensive practices. The process of manufacturing cement, for example, is responsible for 8% of all global carbon dioxide emissions.

We also compared office building emissions in Australia with emission pathways that would limit the sector’s contribution to global warming below 1.5°C or 2.0°C. However, we found cumulative emissions from offices are over 40% above these pathways. 

This means office buildings will likely blow their carbon budgets within a matter of years. We found Tasmania – which runs almost entirely on renewable energy and has fewer office buildings per capita – is the only state or territory with annual emissions that sit consistently below the 1.5°C pathway.

Total greenhouse gas emissions of the Australian office sector, 2024-2049. Adapted from Craft et al. (2006), CC BY

 

Cutting carbon

Our study measured several ways to reduce embodied carbon in office buildings, summarised below:

How can we make construction more sustainable?

Table: The ConversationSource: Craft W., et al. Get the data Embed Download image Created with Datawrapper

We found combining these strategies could reduce total emissions by over 47 million tonnes, putting the office sector far closer to the 2.0°C emissions pathway target.

These results show the importance of “sufficiency” measures, such as refurbishing existing buildings and constructing smaller, or fewer, new buildings.

Research shows sufficiency strategies work. Consider Sydney’s Quay Quarter Tower. This tower was originally built in 1976 but, by the late 2010s, was older and less useful. Rather than demolish it, architects 3XN and BVN extended the tower to the north and upcycled two-thirds of the original structure. This increased office space while saving around 8,000 tonnes of embodied carbon.

Sydney’s Quay Quarter Tower was extended using upcycled building materials. 3XN

 

More work ahead

Our study suggests embodied carbon will, in the next decade, overtake operating carbon as the leading source of building emissions. This is problematic because most countries don’t impose limits on embodied carbon. As a first step, Australia must regulate embodied carbon emissions as other countries – including Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands and Sweden – have already done.

We should also offer incentives for the construction sector to refurbish older buildings. Several councils in the United Kingdom have adopted “retrofit first” policies, where builders must at least consider options for refurbishing buildings before simply demolishing or replacing them.

Our ever-growing global population demands millions of new homes, workplaces and community spaces. But to truly tackle climate change, we must find better ways to balance society’s need for new space with a commitment to curb emissions.

Read More

• How low can we go? To cut the carbon that goes into buildings to net zero, we need radical change 
• Why knock down all public housing towers when retrofit can sometimes be better? 
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•  People are more likely to ditch the car and use an e‑bike if they feel confident and safe
•  France’s nuclear reactors are running hot and still keeping the lights on
•  Puerto Rico is rationing water, but many residents stopped trusting the tap long before the drought

Ocean Heat Shatters Global Record as El Niño Intensifies Pressure on Reefs and Coasts - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Global sea surface temperatures reached
their hottest level ever recorded this week

Key Points

Global sea surface temperatures reached a record 21.1°C on 22 August 2026, beating the previous high of 21.09°C.[1] The record fell during Southern Hemisphere winter, when ocean temperatures normally decline.[2] Oceans absorb more than ninety per cent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases.[4] A developing El Niño is compounding decades of human-driven ocean warming.[1] The Great Barrier Reef's fragile 2026 recovery remains vulnerable to renewed heat stress.[6] Australia is tracking a wetter than usual El Niño nationally, yet drier conditions are forecast for the east and south.[8]

Off Townsville, marine scientists spent late winter 2026 watching an unusual trend unfold in real time. Sea temperatures around the Great Barrier Reef stayed stubbornly warm through a season when they should have cooled. Thousands of kilometres from any coastline, satellites confirmed the pattern was global.^[1]

On 22 August, the global average sea surface temperature reached 21.1 degrees Celsius, the hottest reading since satellite records began in 1979. 

The figure eclipsed the previous record of 21.09 degrees, set in March 2024 near the seasonal peak. This time, the record fell in what should have been a cooling month.^[2]

Record-Breaking Data and Milestones

The Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed the new global daily record on 22 August 2026. Average sea surface temperature across waters between 60 degrees north and south reached 21.104 degrees Celsius. 

That figure surpassed the March 2024 record of 21.09 degrees by a narrow margin.^[1]

The timing made the record more troubling than the number itself. Global ocean temperatures typically peak in March or April, after the Southern Hemisphere summer ends. An August record signalled that background warmth had failed to recede on schedule.^[2]

The reading also beat the previous August record of 20.98 degrees, set in 2023. Researchers say background ocean warmth may be unprecedented in millennia, based on reconstructed pre-industrial records. The modern spike appears unmatched in the deep historical record.^[3]

Oceans absorb more than ninety per cent of the excess heat trapped by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. That capacity has shielded populated coastlines from far faster atmospheric warming. Continued absorption is steadily raising ocean heat content to record depths.^[4]

Contributing Climate Drivers

A developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific is adding fresh heat to already warmed oceans. The World Meteorological Organisation expects the pattern to strengthen through the remainder of 2026. Forecasters say it could reach intensities unseen for several decades.^[1]

El Niño operates as a natural oscillation layered on top of long-term human-driven warming. The combination compounds background ocean heat rather than simply adding to it. Copernicus scientists describe the pattern as further evidence of an ocean under mounting stress.^[2]

Scientists describe the current conditions as uncharted territory for the modern climate record. Ocean temperatures have now exceeded every comparable point since satellite monitoring began in 1979. Researchers say the trajectory offers no clear historical precedent for guidance.^[2]

Decades of fossil fuel combustion have driven a steady rise in background sea surface temperatures. The ocean has absorbed the vast majority of that additional energy since the 1970s. Without emissions cuts, scientists expect the warming trend to continue unabated.^[4]

Marine Ecosystem Disruptions

Rising ocean heat threatens coral reef systems worldwide, including Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Reef scientists at the Australian Institute of Marine Science reported a fragile partial recovery through 2026 after earlier mass bleaching. A renewed marine heatwave risks reversing those tentative gains.^[6]

A late summer monsoon in early 2026 briefly cooled reef waters and eased bleaching pressure. Coral cover increased slightly across some reef regions compared with the previous year. Researchers warn that a strengthening El Niño could quickly erase that respite.^[7]

Extreme marine heat also stresses phytoplankton, which generate around half the planet's oxygen supply. Warmer, more stratified surface waters limit the nutrient mixing that plankton communities depend upon. Reduced productivity ripples upward through entire marine food webs.^[5]

Prolonged marine heatwaves disrupt commercial fisheries and reshape coastal habitats across Australian waters. Warmer seas are pushing sensitive species toward the poles in search of cooler refuges. Coastal and First Nations fishing communities report shifting catches and mounting uncertainty.^[5]

Meteorological and Severe Weather Impacts

Record-hot oceans supply extra energy and moisture that can intensify tropical storms. Warmer surface waters strengthen the fuel available for rapid storm intensification. Forecasters expect above-average cyclone activity as this El Niño strengthens through spring.^[1]

Elevated sea temperatures increase evaporation, loading the atmosphere with extra moisture. That moisture fuels heavier downpours and flash flooding once storm systems reach land. Copernicus scientists link the trend directly to the ocean's expanding heat surplus.^[1]

Shifting rainfall patterns driven by ocean heat can leave some regions locked in prolonged drought. Drier vegetation raises wildfire risk across affected landscapes during peak fire seasons. Northern Australia's fire season was already active by mid-2026 amid high fuel loads.^[10]

Changing ocean temperatures also reshape atmospheric circulation, including the paths of the jet streams. Altered jet stream behaviour can lock weather systems in place for longer periods. Scientists say this dynamic is amplifying extreme heat and rainfall events worldwide.^[2]

Regional Vulnerabilities and Anomalies

The record was measured across the extra-polar ocean, spanning waters between 60 degrees north and south. This band holds the vast majority of the planet's ocean surface and absorbed heat. Polar waters were excluded from the calculation, yet still warmed at record pace elsewhere.^[1]

In 2023, shallow waters off Florida spiked to levels resembling a hot tub, exceeding 38 degrees Celsius. Nearby reefs suffered severe bleaching and coral death within weeks of that spike. The episode illustrates how localised anomalies can outpace the global average by a wide margin.^[9]

Rapid ocean warming accelerates the melting of polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers worldwide. Thermal expansion of warmer seawater compounds that melt, driving global sea levels higher still. Low-lying Pacific and Australian coastal communities face growing exposure to this compounding trend.^[4]

Australia's national rainfall has tracked toward its wettest El Niño year on record so far in 2026. Yet the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts below-average rainfall for the south and east through October. The divergence highlights how uneven regional impacts can be, even within one warming ocean system.^[8]

The 21.1 degree milestone confirms what climate scientists have warned for decades. Human-driven warming and a strengthening El Niño are pushing the ocean beyond historical bounds. Australia's reefs, fisheries and coastlines sit on the frontline of that shift.

Governments face growing pressure to align climate policy with the pace of ocean change. Reef management funding, fisheries planning and coastal infrastructure all depend on accurate, timely data. Continued monitoring, from Copernicus satellites to Australian research vessels, remains essential to accountability.

Without deeper cuts to fossil fuel emissions, the underlying trend will keep intensifying. The record set in August 2026 may prove temporary, but the trajectory behind it looks durable. Ocean heat, once absorbed, lingers within the system for generations.

References 

1. World's oceans hit hottest temperature on record in August. The Guardian's report confirming the 22 August Copernicus reading and its unusual winter timing.

2. Earth's Oceans Just Hit Their Hottest Temperature Ever Recorded. Scientific American's analysis of the record, including expert commentary from Copernicus and Climate Central.

3. The ocean just broke a temperature record that may have stood for millennia. The Washington Post's examination of the record against long-term palaeoclimate context.

4. Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content. NOAA Climate.gov's explainer on how oceans absorb and store excess planetary heat.

5. How is climate change impacting the world's ocean. The United Nations' overview of marine ecosystem and fisheries impacts from ocean warming.

6. Relief for recovering Reef as monsoon cools waters. The Australian Institute of Marine Science's 2026 report on Great Barrier Reef coral cover and bleaching risk.

7. Reef relief: how a late summer monsoon helped cool the Great Barrier Reef at just the right time. The Conversation's account of the 2026 monsoon's effect on reef temperatures.

8. Why Australia's weather is seeing a soaking while a record El Niño is forming. ABC News' report on Australia's divergent national rainfall trend during the 2026 El Niño.

9. 'A hot tub': Florida sees record water temperatures, raising alarm. Al Jazeera's coverage of the 2023 Florida seawater anomaly and associated coral bleaching.

10. Long-range forecast: August to October 2026. The Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal outlook covering rainfall, temperature and fire risk.

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Who Owns the Truth of the Bush: Inside Australia's Privatised Ecology - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Private firms now monitor Australian ecosystems
once tracked by public scientists

Key Points

A Senate inquiry found deep staff distress after CSIRO cut hundreds of research roles.[1] Australia's legislated Nature Repair Market now issues tradeable biodiversity certificates for private buyers.[2] Startups such as Landseed are building sensor networks to mint new ecological commodities for finance markets.[3] Researchers warn automated acoustic AI still struggles with noisy recordings and under-studied species.[4] Indigenous data sovereignty advocates say communities often lack control over environmental data gathered on Country.[5] Canberra says it has lifted CSIRO funding, yet accepted only one of six inquiry recommendations.[6]

Dawn breaks slowly over a stand of ironbark on the edge of a Queensland grazing property. A small mesh box, bolted to a fence post, blinks quietly as it records birdsong for an algorithm elsewhere. Nobody from the local university has visited this paddock in years.

The sensor belongs to a private company chasing a commercial biodiversity certificate. 

It captures a larger shift, where public agencies once owned the task of watching the land.

Public Funding and Institutional Shifts

A Senate inquiry into the CSIRO has exposed the scale of pressure on Australia's premier research agency. The organisation cut roughly 800 positions over eighteen months. A further 350 roles were flagged for redundancy soon after.^[1]

Evidence to the committee described low morale and staff left distressed by cuts made without genuine consultation. Witnesses pointed to a push toward privatised research funding, reshaping the agency's priorities. Long-term ecological monitoring programs were named among the casualties.^[7]

The committee's final report urged the government to give staff certainty over future funding and job security. It criticised CSIRO leadership for a perceived lack of consultation with its own workforce. Independent Senator David Pocock argued funding had fallen sharply on a per capita basis since the 1980s.^[7]

Canberra's formal response points to fresh budget injections rather than a reversal of cuts. The government accepted only one of the committee's six recommendations in full. It maintains CSIRO funding has risen overall across the forward estimates.^[6]

The Rise of Climate-Tech and Private Capital

Australia's Nature Repair Market gives commercial weight to the gap left by shrinking public science. Established under national legislation, it is described as the world's first voluntary biodiversity market. Landholders earn a certificate when a project delivers a verified ecological outcome.^[2]

The Clean Energy Regulator oversees the scheme and its monitoring requirements. Analysts have proposed making participation partly involuntary, echoing the Safeguard Mechanism used in carbon markets. Corporate buyers seeking nature-positive credentials are the intended demand side.^[8]

Private capital is following the policy signal into sensor technology. The startup Landseed, backed by the nonprofit that owns Patagonia, launched in 2026 to build AI sensor networks. Its stated goal is minting a new ecological commodity class for conservation finance.^[3]

Government grants have also funded drone, satellite, and acoustic monitoring trials across Australia's ranges. Several projects blend remote sensing with Indigenous ranger knowledge in desert and savanna country. The resulting data increasingly feeds commercial certification pipelines rather than open scientific archives.^[2]

Data Access and the "Gated" Science Threat

Biodiversity certificates rely on verification methods that remain partly proprietary. Companies competing for market share have commercial reasons to guard their sensor algorithms and raw datasets. This limits independent academic scrutiny of the underlying ecological claims.^[3]

Community groups contesting a development proposal often need access to habitat data held by a private operator. Without a public register, residents can face steep costs or outright refusal. Small rural councils rarely have the legal budget to challenge that refusal.

Journalists face a parallel obstacle when verifying environmental claims made by developers or offset sellers. Where tracking data sits behind a corporate paywall, independent fact-checking becomes difficult or impossible. Public interest reporting depends on datasets that remain genuinely open.

The long-term risk is a two-tier system of ecological knowledge. Publicly funded science shrinks while proprietary corporate archives expand behind commercial walls. Australia's environmental accountability could depend increasingly on data nobody outside a company can check.

Accuracy and Automation in Ecology

Automated bioacoustic tools promise cheap, large-scale ecosystem surveillance. Researchers using AI to analyse rainforest soundscapes report the technology performs well for species with distinctive calls. It struggles with low-frequency sounds and regions lacking labelled training data.^[4]

Passive acoustic monitoring devices generate enormous volumes of noisy field recordings. Wind, rain and overlapping animal calls routinely degrade signal quality. Scientists warn these limitations affect the reliability of automated species detection.^[9]

Some ecologists caution that fast automated assessments risk sidelining slower, field-based verification. Traditional environmental approval processes were built around expert observation over time. A rapid sensor reading cannot easily replace that accumulated ecological judgement.

Independent testing of the machine learning models used in bioacoustics remains limited in Australia. No dedicated regulator currently audits algorithmic accuracy for commercial biodiversity certification. Scientists argue transparent benchmarking should become a condition of market participation.^[9]

Indigenous Sovereignty and Knowledge Exploitation

More than half of Australia's land and sea territory has returned to Traditional Owner management. Indigenous rangers already use drones and sensors to monitor threats across remote Country. Their knowledge increasingly underpins the ecological baselines that private certifiers rely upon.^[5]

Yet Indigenous communities frequently have limited access to, or control over, data collected about their Country. Government natural resource records have historically excluded the people who hold that knowledge. This gap now shapes how private nature-credit firms engage with Traditional Owners.^[10]

The CARE principles of Indigenous data sovereignty demand collective benefit, authority, responsibility, and ethics in data use. Reef Traditional Owners have pursued negotiated data-sharing agreements built on this framework. Advocates argue similar agreements should extend to every commercial biodiversity monitoring project.^[5]

Joint-managed national parks across northern Australia illustrate both the promise and the tension. Traditional owners contribute cultural knowledge that strengthens ecological accuracy for private sensor networks. Fair financial return and genuine data control remain unresolved for many of these partnerships.^[10]

Australia's ecological custody is quietly changing hands. Public science, weakened by years of cuts, can no longer monitor every corner of the continent. Private capital has moved into that space with sensors, algorithms and commercial certificates.

This shift carries real benefits alongside real risks. New technology can extend monitoring into remote country once beyond reach. Yet proprietary data and sidelined communities threaten environmental truth, and accountability depends on who controls the evidence.

Restoring public investment and building genuine data-sharing partnerships would help balance innovation against accountability. Without that correction, the nation risks measuring its biodiversity through instruments nobody can independently verify. The question is no longer whether technology can watch the bush, but who gets to trust what it reports.

References 

1. Greens secure Senate inquiry into CSIRO job cuts. Details the scale of CSIRO job losses that triggered the Senate inquiry.

2. Nature Repair Market. Official government overview of Australia's legislated biodiversity credit scheme.

3. Biodiversity Credits Need Real Data: Patagonia Nonprofit Backs Sensor Startup Landseed. Reports on private capital funding AI sensor networks for biodiversity credits.

4. Listening to the rainforest: Researcher uses AI to monitor biodiversity through sound. Explains the accuracy limitations of AI bioacoustic monitoring.

5. Enhancing Indigenous data sovereignty in environmental decision-making. CSIRO research on Indigenous involvement in drone and sensor-based land monitoring.

6. Australian Government response: funding and resourcing for the CSIRO. The government's formal reply to the Senate committee's recommendations.

7. Give CSIRO staff some certainty, says Senate inquiry's final report. Summarises the committee's findings on staff distress and funding uncertainty.

8. From Potential to Practice: Scaling Australia's Nature Repair Market. Policy analysis of options to expand demand within the Nature Repair Market.

9. First-of-its-kind AI model for bioacoustic detection using a lightweight associative memory Hopfield neural network. Peer-reviewed analysis of noise and reliability constraints in acoustic monitoring AI.

10. A timely call for Indigenous data sovereignty in environmental research and governance. Examines risks of Western science exploiting Indigenous ecological knowledge without fair return.

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Australia Braces for a Triple Whammy Spring as El Nino, Heat and Drought Converge - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia is entering a spring and summer
shaped by record ocean heat

Key Points

Australia has warmed by 1.51 degrees since 1910, raising the baseline for every extreme this spring.[1] A very strong El Nino and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole are producing a climate "triple whammy."[2] Heatwaves are growing hotter, longer and more frequent, cutting into overnight recovery for vulnerable people.[4] Eastern cropping regions face a 60 to 80 per cent chance of below average spring rain, while Western Australia bucks the pattern.[5][7] AFAC has flagged heightened bushfire danger in every state and territory this spring.[6] Compound hazards are stacking on farms, reefs and communities, amplifying economic and ecological damage.[9][10]

A grazier in the New South Wales Riverina checks the Bureau of Meteorology app before sunrise. 

The paddocks around her are already crisp for late winter. 

She scrolls past a long-range outlook showing warmer, drier months ahead and wonders whether the dam will last until harvest.

Her worry is shared across the continent. 

Scientists, farmers and emergency chiefs are watching three climate forces converge at once. 

Their combined weight is reshaping how Australians will work, travel and stay safe in the months ahead.

Climate System Drivers and Background Warming

Australia's climate has warmed by an average of 1.51 degrees Celsius since national records began in 1910. 

Most of that warming has occurred since 1950, according to the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. Every decade since then has been hotter than the one before it.^[1]

This elevated baseline changes how natural cycles behave. An El Nino event now forms on top of a warmer ocean and atmosphere than it did decades ago. That extra background heat pushes seasonal extremes further beyond historical norms.^[1]

Climate scientists describe the coming months as a potential "triple whammy." A very strong El Nino, a forming positive Indian Ocean Dipole and long-term climate change are aligning together. Climate Council researcher Andrew Watkins says the combination could drive severe drying and flash drought.^[2]

The Bureau's monitoring shows the tropical Pacific still warming through spring. The Nino 3.4 index reached 2.20 degrees above average in early August, well past the El Nino threshold. Models expect the event to peak near late spring or summer before easing into 2027.^[3]

Temperature and Heatwaves

The Bureau's long-range outlook gives most of Australia a high chance of exceeding long-term average maximum temperatures this spring. Southern and eastern regions carry the strongest signal for above average heat. Forecasters describe conditions capable of challenging Australia's warmest spring on record.^[3]

CSIRO research confirms heatwaves are becoming hotter, longer and more frequent as the climate warms. Extreme heat already causes more Australian deaths than any other natural hazard. More than a thousand people died from heatwave conditions in the four years to 2019.^[4]

Unusually high minimum temperatures leave little relief once the sun goes down. Bodies, buildings and ecosystems normally cool overnight, recovering from daytime stress. When nights stay warm, that recovery window shrinks for people, livestock and native wildlife alike.^[4]

Projections point to a widening gap between hot and cool extremes. Extremely hot days are becoming more frequent, while extremely cool days are declining. CSIRO expects this trend to continue as greenhouse gas concentrations keep climbing.^[4]

Rainfall Shifts and Drought Risk

Cropping regions across New South Wales and Queensland face a 60 to 80 per cent chance of drier spring conditions. Government agricultural forecasters have already trimmed winter crop yield estimates for 2026 and 2027. Dry soil across northern New South Wales is compounding the risk.^[5]

Western Australia is delivering a historic twist on the usual El Nino script. Bureau modelling now points to an unusually wet spring across the state's west and the Northern Territory. Combined with earlier soaking rain, 2026 is tracking toward becoming Australia's wettest El Nino year on record.^[7]

Even where average rainfall totals are falling, short bursts are intensifying. Heavy short-duration rainfall has increased by around 10 per cent or more in some regions. This pattern holds even in populated zones where overall totals remain historically low.^[1]

CSIRO projections point to longer droughts ahead for southern and eastern Australia. The average duration of drought and aridity is likely to increase across these regions. Reduced cool season rainfall is expected to compound the trend through coming decades.^[1]

Fire Weather and Soil Dryness

AFAC has identified dry eastern conditions and heavy fuel loads in central and northern Australia as key fire drivers. Chief executive Rob Webb says the mix of factors demands early local preparation. Almost every state and territory carries an elevated fire risk this spring.^[6]

Fire seasons are lengthening at both ends across much of the country. The Top End's tropical wet season is starting later, extending fire danger into November. Southern fire seasons are increasingly starting earlier as spring dries out sooner.^[6]

Dry vegetation and low soil moisture are raising bushfire potential across nearly every jurisdiction. Above average fuel loads following recent wet seasons have primed grasslands in the Northern Territory. Below average rainfall is drying eastern Tasmania, Victoria and southeast Queensland simultaneously.^[6]

Sudden heatwaves and flash droughts can rapidly transform forest landscapes into fire hazards. Researchers studying vegetation die-off after 2024 heat and drought found widespread canopy stress across temperate Australia. That die-off leaves standing fuel that burns more readily than green forest.^[4]

Direct Impacts on Lifestyle and Economy

Reduced spring rainfall threatens yields across critical southern grain belts in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Wheat is especially sensitive to dry conditions during its grain-filling phase in October and November. Agricultural forecasters warn some regions could see significant production losses this season.^[5]

Extreme heat is reshaping how Australians take holidays. Research shows around a third of surveyed Australians have avoided destinations they considered too hot. Travellers are increasingly shifting timing, activities and locations rather than cancelling trips outright.^[8]

Warming seas are placing coral reefs under sustained thermal stress. The Great Barrier Reef and Western Australia's Ningaloo Reef bleached together this year for the first recorded time. Marine heatwaves off the northwest pushed sea temperatures up to four degrees above the summer average.^[9]

Compound events, where multiple hazards strike together, are multiplying overall disaster risk. Heatwaves, drought and fire increasingly overlap rather than arriving in isolation. CSIRO warns this stacking effect leaves communities and infrastructure more vulnerable to systemic failure.^[10]

Spring and summer 2026 will test institutions built for a milder climate. Rising baseline heat, a powerful El Nino and a shifting Indian Ocean are compounding together. The result is a season of sharp regional contrasts rather than uniform drought.

Governments, insurers and emergency services face growing pressure to plan for overlapping hazards. Farmers, fire chiefs and reef scientists are already adjusting to conditions once considered rare. Their experience shows adaptation is now a continuous task rather than an occasional response.

Accountability sits with policymakers who set emissions targets and fund climate resilience. The science is settled and the warnings are public. What Australia does with that knowledge will shape how communities fare through the seasons ahead.

References

1. State of the Climate 2024. Joint BOM and CSIRO report detailing Australia's 1.51 degree warming and future projections.

2. Why Australia could be heading for a spring and summer "triple whammy". SBS News report on converging climate drivers.

3. Southern hemisphere monitoring. Bureau of Meteorology tracking of Nino 3.4 index and El Nino strength.

4. Anatomy of a heatwave. CSIRO analysis of Australia's intensifying heatwave conditions.

5. Australian Crop Report, June 2026. ABARES data on winter crop yield forecasts and rainfall probabilities.

6. Seasonal Bushfire Outlook Spring 2026. AFAC national fire danger assessment for spring 2026.

7. Why Australia's weather is seeing a soaking while a record El Nino is forming. ABC News on Western Australia's unusually wet spring outlook.

8. Extreme heat is altering when, where and how we travel. The Conversation research on Australian holiday behaviour.

9. Synchronised bleaching. The Conversation report on simultaneous reef bleaching driven by marine heatwaves.

10. How to build resilience in the face of compounding extreme events. CSIRO explainer on compound disaster risk.

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Australian Insurers Demand Climate Adaptation Overhaul as Disaster Costs Soar - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australian insurers are demanding equal weight
for disaster resilience alongside emissions cuts

Key Points

Extreme weather losses could reach $35 billion annually by 2050, up from $4.5 billion today.[1] The ICA is calling for a $30.15 billion, ten-year Flood Defence Fund and national resilience investment.[1] Levee investment in Roma cut some household premiums by up to ninety per cent.[1] Home insurance premiums rose 7.2 per cent yearly since 2010, far outpacing wage growth.[2] Around 520,000 Australian properties are projected to become effectively uninsurable by 2030.[3] First Nations and regional communities face the sharpest rise in climate-driven insurance risk.[5]

The Insurance Council of Australia lodged a submission with the Climate Change Authority in August 2026. 

It argues that trimming carbon emissions alone leaves Australian communities exposed to mounting disaster costs. 

Insurers want disaster risk reduction treated as a co-equal policy priority.^[1]

This investigation examines what is driving the industry's demand and what happens if governments fail to act. 

Rising uninsurability already threatens property values and regional economies across flood and bushfire-prone Australia.^[3]

Driving Forces Behind the Overhaul

Extreme weather losses already average $4.5 billion a year across Australian insurance books. The Insurance Council projects that figure will reach at least $35 billion annually by 2050. That trajectory reflects worsening bushfires, heatwaves and cyclone intensity across the continent.^[7]

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, the sector's prudential regulator, confirmed the trend in March 2026. Its Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment found weather losses could exceed $16 billion annually by 2050. Roughly one in seven homes are currently uninsured, a figure modelled to reach one in four.^[2]

Global reinsurance, the insurance that insurers buy to spread catastrophic risk, is tightening for high-risk regions. No new insurers have entered northern Australian markets since the federal cyclone reinsurance pool began in 2022.^[1]

Insurers also blame patchy hazard data for weakening the accuracy of pricing decisions. Commonwealth, state and territory datasets remain inconsistent, undermining risk assessment and planning decisions. The ICA wants a nationally consistent climate hazard baseline to close this gap.^[1]

Government and Policy Action

The submission calls for $30.15 billion in flood mitigation investment over ten years. Central to that agenda is a proposed national Flood Defence Fund for large-scale infrastructure. Household adaptation programs would strengthen homes against floods, bushfires and cyclones.^[1]

The Insurance Council argues federal and state funding should prioritise prevention over post-disaster recovery. Its own resilience modelling estimates every mitigation dollar avoids nine to ten dollars in recovery costs. Levee construction in Roma, Queensland, cut some household premiums by up to ninety per cent.^[1]

Regulatory reform features prominently, including updates to the National Construction Code, the rulebook for minimum building standards. The ICA also wants coordinated federal-state buybacks for properties facing flood risk beyond mitigation. These reforms aim to keep insurance both affordable and available in high-risk regions.^[1]

Land-use planning reform sits alongside these measures, targeting new development in disaster-prone areas. The submission urges councils to restrict building approvals in zones facing unacceptable climate exposure. It further asks the Authority to track adaptation progress alongside emergency management agencies.^[1]

Impact on Infrastructure and Building Codes

Australian building standards face mounting pressure to withstand increasingly severe weather. Engineers argue current codes lag behind the intensity of modern cyclones and floods. The ICA links code reform directly to keeping premiums manageable in exposed suburbs.^[1]

Community-level infrastructure delivers the strongest returns for reducing regional risk. The Launceston levee, costing $58 million, is projected to avoid $216 million in future recovery costs. Roma's levee similarly reduced flood premiums for many households by up to sixty per cent.^[1]

Retrofitting existing homes forms another pillar of the adaptation agenda. Programs could fund stronger roofing, elevated flooring and bushfire-resistant materials for vulnerable properties. The Actuaries Institute has long argued mitigation grants are undermined by fragmented council funding processes.^[4]

Responsibility for funding these upgrades remains contested between governments, insurers and property owners. Researchers at the University of New South Wales found designed levees often go unbuilt due to cost. Communities have flooded twice within five years despite existing mitigation designs.^[6]

Consumer and Market Implications

An adaptation overhaul would directly affect premium pricing across high-risk postcodes. Home insurance premiums rose by an average 7.2 per cent yearly between 2010 and 2025. Wages grew at just 3.1 per cent annually across the same period, APRA found.^[2]

Some insurers have already withdrawn cover from the highest-risk postcodes. Around 520,000 Australian properties are projected to become effectively uninsurable by 2030. Riverine flooding accounts for roughly eighty per cent of that projected uninsurability.^[3]

Insurers could better incentivise property owners through premium discounts for verified mitigation works. Industry surveys show affordability concerns climbed from the sixth to the first-ranked business challenge within a year. That shift signals how urgently insurers view the adaptation gap.^[1]

Long-term consequences extend to property values and mortgage availability in vulnerable markets. Lenders increasingly weigh flood and bushfire exposure when assessing loan risk. Regional and rural households face the widest protection gap, potentially exceeding forty per cent by 2050.^[2]

Collaborative Solutions and Future Outlook

Insurers, scientists and technology firms are collaborating to build sharper predictive risk maps. Consistent hazard data would improve planning decisions across every level of government. The ICA frames this national data baseline as foundational to future reform.^[1]

Public-private partnerships already underpin Australia's cyclone reinsurance pool model. Similar structures overseas have helped manage flood and earthquake risks once considered uninsurable. Australian officials have shared cyclone pool lessons with international regulators through OECD forums.^[1]

Risk education programs aim to help citizens understand local hazard exposure. Researchers note many people struggle to interpret what a one per cent annual flood risk actually means. Clearer communication could improve household decisions on mitigation investment.^[6]

A successful overhaul would stabilise both insurance markets and community confidence over coming decades. Reduced disaster costs and consistent hazard data would support stronger property and lending markets. First Nations communities on the climate frontline stand to benefit most from proactive adaptation investment.^[5]

Australia's insurers have pushed climate adaptation to the centre of national policy debate. Their submission exposes a widening gap between emissions-focused policy and the realities facing exposed communities. Frontline suburbs, rural towns and First Nations communities carry the heaviest share of that risk.

Billions in projected losses and a shrinking pool of insurable homes demand coordinated government response. Flood levees, stronger building codes and consistent hazard data offer proven pathways to lower costs. Roma and Launceston show mitigation investment repays itself many times over within years.

Whether governments adopt these measures will determine insurance affordability for a generation of Australians. Accountability now rests with policymakers to match insurers' urgency with lasting structural reform. Australians deserve insurance markets built on resilience rather than retreat from climate reality.

References

1. Insurers tell climate body: emissions focus alone won't protect the market. Insurance Business Australia's detailed report on the ICA's August 2026 submission to the Climate Change Authority.

2. Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment. APRA's modelling of insurance affordability and the national protection gap through to 2050.

3. Uninsurable Nation: Australia's most climate-vulnerable places. Climate Council ranking of electorates by projected property uninsurability.

4. Funding for Flood Costs: Affordability, Availability and Public Policy Options. Actuaries Institute analysis of flood cost drivers and mitigation funding barriers.

5. Compounding climate risk: National Climate Risk Assessment briefing. Climate Council summary of government findings on risks facing First Nations communities.

6. Climate risk and insurance affordability in Australia. UNSW BusinessThink coverage of stalled mitigation projects and risk-perception research.

7. Climate Action. Insurance Council of Australia's roadmap outlining industry-wide resilience and net zero commitments.

8. Impact of Climate Risk on Insurance Premiums and Availability. National Legal Aid submission documenting ACCC findings on northern Australian insurance costs.

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Australia at the Climate Crossroads as El Niño Meets a Warmer World - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia is entering a dangerous climate season
with El Niño strengthening against a steadily warmer baseline

Key Points

El Niño is strengthening and may persist into summer. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts warmer conditions and below-average rainfall across much of eastern and southern Australia.[1] Australia's 2035 target requires emissions 62% to 70% below 2005 levels. Current projections show policies still require sustained implementation.[2] The Safeguard Mechanism covers 219 major facilities responsible for about 31% of national emissions. Its 2026 review will examine stronger settings after 2030.[3] Climate risks are already affecting insurance affordability. APRA's stress testing identifies a widening protection gap as a financial-system concern.[4] Australian agriculture is experiencing increasing pressure from changing rainfall, heat, drought and water availability. Recent crop forecasts show regional consequences.[5] Australia has major clean-energy opportunities, yet investors are increasingly sensitive to policy uncertainty and competing international markets.[6]

On a winter morning in eastern Australia, the warning can look deceptively ordinary. A dry paddock, a warm forecast and a reservoir edging lower carry little drama.

Yet these familiar signals now sit within a warmer climate that raises the consequences of natural variability. 

El Niño is strengthening across the Pacific and the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) expects it to influence Australian conditions into summer.^[1]

El Niño Meets a Warmer Australia

BOM reported a strong El Niño signal in July, with tropical Pacific waters substantially warmer than the threshold used to identify the event.^[1]

El Niño commonly reduces winter and spring rainfall across central and eastern Australia. It can also increase the likelihood of warmer conditions, although every event produces different regional outcomes.^[7]

The current outlook adds pressure to regions already facing dry conditions. BOM forecasts below-average rainfall across much of eastern and southern Australia through October.^[1]

Climate change changes the starting point. Higher background temperatures mean heat extremes can emerge from natural climate patterns with greater consequences for people and ecosystems.

The Target and the Accountability Gap

Australia has legislated net zero emissions by 2050 and adopted a 2035 target of 62% to 70% below 2005 levels.^[2]

The Government's 2025 emissions projections estimate progress against the 2030 target while excluding policies announced with the 2035 target.^[2]

That distinction matters because targets establish direction while policies determine the rate of actual emissions decline. Delivery therefore becomes the central test of credibility.

The Safeguard Mechanism provides a major test. It covers 219 facilities across mining, oil, gas, manufacturing, transport and waste, representing about 31% of national emissions.^[3]

Fossil Fuels and the Clean-Energy Race

Australia remains a major exporter of coal and gas while building an electricity system increasingly supplied by renewable energy. That dual position creates a difficult policy tension.

The Safeguard Mechanism requires covered facilities to reduce their emissions baselines progressively. The Government will review the decline rate applying from 2030 to 2035.^[3]

The review will also examine credits, offsets, facility coverage and incentives for direct emissions reductions. Those decisions will shape the credibility of Australia's industrial transition.^[3]

Investors are watching closely. A 2026 survey covering investors managing $3.5 trillion found growing interest in Australian renewable energy, storage, and clean infrastructure alongside concern about policy uncertainty.^[6]

The Cost Arriving at the Household

Climate damage increasingly appears through household finances rather than disaster headlines. Insurance provides one of the clearest measures of that shift.

APRA's Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment examined how changing weather risks could affect home insurance affordability and the protection gap through 2050.^[4]

The assessment identifies floods, fires, storms, and heat stress among physical climate risks impacting insurance outcomes. Higher losses can place pressure on premiums and household affordability.^[4]

The consequences extend beyond individual households. A widening protection gap can leave families, lenders, governments, and communities carrying larger financial losses after disasters.^[4]

Food, Health and the Adaptation Test

Agriculture provides another measure of climate exposure. Government analysis finds that changing rainfall, temperature and extreme weather already affect productivity, water availability, soil and pests.^[5]

ABARES estimates show climate conditions reduced cropping productivity in several regions during the early twenty-first century. National wheat yields were also lower under those conditions.^[5]

The 2026 crop outlook illustrates the continuing exposure. Winter crop production is forecast to fall 21% in 2026–27, with dry conditions particularly affecting northern New South Wales and southern Queensland.^[8]

Health systems face a parallel challenge. Australia's National Health and Climate Strategy recognises climate change as a current health risk and calls for stronger resilience across communities and health services.^[9]

Australia's climate challenge is increasingly defined by interaction. El Niño can intensify drought and heat risks while long-term warming raises the consequences of each extreme.

Government targets provide a framework, yet implementation will determine whether emissions fall quickly enough. Stronger industrial standards, reliable clean energy and effective adaptation remain essential.

The choices made during this decade will shape insurance affordability, agricultural resilience, public health and regional prosperity. Climate policy has therefore become a test of governance, economic planning and public protection.

References

1. Long-range forecast: August to October 2026. Bureau of Meteorology forecast for rainfall, temperature and El Niño conditions.

2. Australia's Emissions Projections 2025. Australian Government assessment of emissions trends and progress towards national targets.

3. Safeguard Mechanism. Australian Government information on industrial emissions limits and the 2026–27 review.

4. Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment. APRA analysis of climate-related insurance affordability and financial-system risks.

5. Climate Change and the Agricultural Sector. Australian Government assessment of climate impacts on agricultural production and adaptation.

6. State of Net Zero Investment 2026. Investor Group on Climate Change survey of Australian institutional investment and policy conditions.

7. El Niño: What It Means for Australia's Climate. Bureau of Meteorology explanation of typical Australian El Niño impacts.

8. Australian Crop Report June 2026. ABARES forecast of Australian crop production and regional climate risks.

9. National Health and Climate Strategy. Australian Government strategy for climate-resilient communities and health services.

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