Earth’s thermostat is broken... - Julian Cribb

 Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

As COP31 gathers, the cadence of the human death-march grows

AUTHOR

Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

For a full week before humans met to discuss the overheating Earth at COP31 in Antalya, Turkiye, global surface air temperatures ran at +2 degrees - the hottest they have been since the industrial age began. The hottest modern humans have ever experienced.

While the world’s eyeballs remained glued to sundry elections, markets and small wars, the grim cadence of the human death-march has gathered fresh momentum, watched by the sleepless eyes of a constellation of Earth-observing satellites that note each small change in temperature on our fragile sphere. 

As in past years, two thirds of those attending the most consequential climate talks of our time are the genocides representing the fossil fuels sector. They outnumber the humans nearly two to one. 

Here, for those who have not yet been seduced into sacrificing their own grandchildren to oil shareholders, are some of the latest data points from the EU’s Copernicus.

1. Land temperatures have hit +2 degrees for the first time since 1850.

2. Sea surface temperatures are running from +1 to +3 degrees hotter across vast swathes of the world’s oceans: 

The +2 degree temperatures of early November do not mean that the planet’s year-round average has reached that point just yet. That is still around +1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times. But they shout aloud that climate overshoot beyond +1.5 degrees (the 2015 Paris Agreement goal) is now inevitable – as the UN itself now concedes- even were the humans to overcome the genocides at COP31 and start putting in place some serious action to reel in global carbon emissions.

COP31 remains stubbornly determined to take an optimistic view of climate goals, proclaiming itself as ‘the transition from consensus to action’. It states its main objectives as:

· Zero waste (to cut methane emissions)

· Food security

· Healthier oceans

· Clean energy, with electricity’s share rising from 24% to 35% by 2035

· Green industry

· Climate-resilient cities

· Better healthcare

· Engaging the youth in fighting climate change

· Implementation of climate actions.

It declares its main visions are ‘rebuilding trust, shared commitments and turning commitments into action’. All of which the fossil fuels genocides will do their best to sabotage, delay, dilute or deny, as they have for the past decade.

The UN Environment Program (UNEP)’s report “Limiting Overshoot” acknowledges that overshoot is unavoidable, and that even in the most optimistic scenario puts peak temperature at +1.8 degrees C. Probably far worse.

“Exceedance of 1.5°C should not be interpreted as safe or acceptable; there are no benign scenarios with global temperature rise above this level,” says UNEP. The aim now is to ride the increases in temperature while aiming to cool the Earth back to +1.5 degrees by 2100, as task many deem impossible within human time frames.

“Risks and impacts include faster sea-level rise, a higher likelihood of collapse of ecosystems, more extreme heat and wildfires, and profound changes to ice sheets, permafrost and snow. There is a higher risk of irreversible tipping points to global systems such as the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest — which would reshape the world forever,” says UNEP.

Global air temperatures have again reached record levels. Source: Copernicus EU/Zeke Hausfather

Meanwhile back in the oilfields, exploration for new oil and gas shows no signs of slowing down, with the accent swinging to ‘high impact’ areas where the prospects for a big discovery are greatest. There are said to be 37 of these giant fields worldwide currently undergoing intensive exploration, chiefly in Latin America, Africa and theAsia-Pacific, and in deepwater regions.

Faced with the same inflationary costs as the rest of the world, fossil fuels corporates are turning to AI and data analysis to identify those fields with the best prospects for a ‘big strike’, while saving money on traditional discovery methods.

Faced with hostile pressure from the US, Russia and Norway the EU appears to be retreating from its call to ban Arctic oil extraction, in a further sign of the tyranny of the fossil fuels sector over the human future.

“Die, baby, die!”

Meanwhile, The Lancet Countdown report, issued just prior to COP31, has heralded current heating trends as a growing health emergency.

“Climate change is increasingly affecting health and threatening people’s survival worldwide, and the window of opportunity to avoid a potentially catastrophic future is rapidly closing. Weakening multilateralism and growing climate change disinformation, denialism, and scepticism are now increasingly undermining collective action and threatening to reverse progress to date,” the report says.

The Lancet team measured 54 indicators of human health over the past ten years finding “The past 11 years have been the hottest on record, and growing emissions mean overshooting the 1·5°C threshold is probably unavoidable – pushing the world beyond the limits needed to protect health.

“During 2016–23, heat was associated with an average of 540 800 deaths per year, of which 369 940 (68·4%) were attributable to human-caused climate change. Heat-related deaths reached a record-high of 710 000 estimated deaths globally in 2023, of which 71·5% can be attributed to climate change.

“More frequent heatwaves and extreme droughts are increasingly threatening food security. Droughts affected 51·8% of global land for at least 1 month in 2025—the second-highest level recorded. This trend has accelerated, with the affected area growing 704% faster in 2016–25 than in 2006–15.

Changing rainfall patterns have also driven an accelerated increase in the environmental spread of dengue virus, with a record 1.72 billion people now at risk.

“Because of the rapidly growing threats over the past decade, climate change has become a global health emergency. Addressing it requires urgent course-correction to deliver coordinated and evidence-based action across borders to protect health and survival.” The Lancet team concluded.

They warned that attempts to mitigate climate change were flagging due to the influence of the global fossil fuels industry: “The tightening grip of fossil fuels is pushing the world towards an increasingly dangerous future.”

Over the last decade governments had paid $6.2 trillion in subsidies to fossil fuels corporates – effectively paying oil companies to kill their own citizens and taxpayers.

“Lobbying and disinformation by fossil fuel interests and political allies continue to weaken support for action, countering the growing body of scientific literature on the links between health and climate change,” they said.

“With weakened political momentum, oil and gas companies are further expanding production plans. In March, 2026, the 100 largest oil and gas companies were projected to exceed production levels consistent with limiting heating to 1·5°C by 150% by 2040.”

“Oil and gas companies are reaping windfall profits and expanding their influence over an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.”

Faced with the growing butcher’s bill for oil, gas and coal, The Lancet urged participants in COP31 to view the reality of climate change as a human health emergency. But what do the oil barons care?

Julian Cribb Articles

• 'Died of a delusion': the fate of modern civilisation?
• The great dying
• Hothouse Earth: arriving sooner than you think…
• Here comes the Human Tsunami
• Sounding the Earth Emergency
• Turning Waste Into Wealth
• Up to our eyeballs in 💩💩💩
• Plasticide: a crime against humanity · Our Rising Oceans
• Will climate change put women in the ascendant?
• When the water runs out...
• The great dying
• Australia issues ‘terrifying’ climate warning
• 'Died of a delusion': the fate of modern civilisation?
• Collapse is near, scientists warn
• De-icing the Earth: a fatal human choice.
• Rivers of Death
• Unlike politicians, thermometers do not lie
• Welcome to BunkerWorld: Home of the rich and fearful
• Wisdom of the elders
• The black work of Big Oil
• Stealing the Breath of Life
• The Earth Uncloaked - a catastrophe in slow motion
• Military experts warn of climate wars
• Tackling the Earth Emergency
• A distracted world marches steadily towards catastrophe

Australia Presides Over COP31 While Approving New Coal and Gas - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia presides over COP31 negotiations while approving
coal and gas projects that critics say undermine its mandate

Key Points

Bowen rejects claims that coal and gas exports damage Australia’s standing, saying buyers rely on those supplies.[1] Guterres urged an end to new fossil fuel infrastructure as Albanese centred the Pacific in his summit address.[2] The 35 by 35 electrification pledge sets no requirement for clean power, and analysts estimate a clean-only path would trim warming by 0.3C.[3] More than 500 academics want a binding phase-out timetable and a ban on new projects, including in the Hunter Valley and Beetaloo.[4] The Australia Institute reports record thermal coal export volumes and 42 proposed coal projects able to extract 335 million tonnes a year.[5] Two advocacy groups apologised to Pacific islands in a Fiji Times advertisement that called a coal mine expansion a betrayal.[6]

Australia is leading formal talks at the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) as President of Negotiations. 

Climate advocates say its continued coal and gas approvals undermine that mandate. 

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen rejects the criticism.^[1]

The central contradiction

Türkiye hosts COP31 in Antalya. Australia holds a newly created role managing draft texts and guiding decisions. 

The Lowy Institute describes the arrangement as a compromise.^[7]

In October, Bowen said the co-presidency would work on a cover decision, the overarching text that accompanies agreed outcomes. 

He said the presidency wanted to avoid negotiating a lengthy political statement.^[8]

Bowen describes his job as steering consensus towards the most ambitious outcome that delegates will accept. 

He calls the fossil fuel transition a challenging issue. COP30 in Brazil failed to deliver agreement on it last year.^[1]

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor criticised the cost of Australia’s COP31 presence, including a $32,000 coffee cart at the pavilion. 

Bowen replied that opposing Australian leadership means opposing Australian influence in the Pacific. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese added that cooperation with Pacific nations serves national security.^[1]

Leadership versus exports

Bowen rejects any suggestion that coal and gas exports have damaged Australia’s standing in the talks. He says other governments rely on Australian supplies to run their energy systems. He says the argument fails to “survive contact with reality”.^[1]

Albanese defends the approach, noting that resource companies pay substantial tax that funds public services. His opening address to the leaders summit omitted any direct reference to fossil fuels. Asked about the omission, he said short speeches leave out many topics.^[1]

The Australia Institute found the September 2025 quarter delivered the highest thermal coal export volume on record. It counts 42 proposed coal projects that could extract 335 million tonnes a year. China and India, core buyers, reported lower coal power use in 2025 for the first time in 52 years.^[5]

Climate Council’s Nicki Hutley compares new coal and gas approvals to filling a bath with the plug pulled out. Australian Conservation Foundation chief executive Adam Bandt says Australia has nowhere to hide. He wants a pledge to stop opening new coal and gas mines.^[2]

Pacific solidarity, fossil fuels

Albanese pointed to the Pacific Resilience Facility, a Pacific-led fund for resilience projects, as a model for supporting vulnerable nations. He also highlighted rapid rooftop solar and household battery uptake at home. He said Pacific communities plead for assistance.^[2]

Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr defends Australia’s involvement, arguing small islands need influential partners to amplify their concerns. He rejects loans as the remedy for damage the islands did little to cause. He compares the situation to a canoe struck by a ship whose owner offers a repair loan.^[1]

Two advocacy groups ran a Fiji Times advertisement apologising to Pacific islands for a coal mine expansion. The Australia Institute and the Australian Conservation Foundation placed the advertisement, which called the expansion a betrayal. The federal government was weighing approval of the project at the time.^[6]

Amnesty International Australia argues the country cannot credibly claim climate leadership while supporting fossil fuel expansion. The organisation has documented climate harm to human rights in Tuvalu and Kiribati. Its campaign also features First Nations people challenging offshore oil and gas exploration affecting their lands and waters.^[9]

Electrification as avoidance

Electrification replaces direct fuel burning, such as petrol engines and gas heating, with electric equipment. Türkiye proposed lifting electricity’s share of global energy use from 23 to 35 per cent by 2035. Bowen says the world has no chance of holding 1.5 degrees without this “35 by 35” pledge.^[3]

The proposed wording requires no clean or renewable source for the extra electricity. It says pathways and rates will differ according to each country’s starting point. Poorer countries face costly grid upgrades to shift to clean sources.^[3]

Analysts estimate a clean-only pathway would trim projected warming of at least 2.6C by 0.3C. Sceptics warn that fossil-based electrification could lock in prolonged fossil fuel use. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol says the pledge signals to markets that electricity is the future.^[3]

Bowen defends the flexibility, saying many countries cannot wait for 100 per cent renewable grids before electrifying. He argues electric vehicles run more efficiently than petrol cars even on fossil-fuelled grids. The oil crisis from war in the Middle East, he adds, strengthened the case.^[1]

Diplomacy without alignment

Brazil and others have pushed a global roadmap for moving away from coal, oil and gas. The COP31 agenda still centres on electrification, adaptation and climate finance. Bowen says delegates have a long way to go.^[1]

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres told leaders to stop building new coal, gas and oil infrastructure. He urged windfall taxes on fossil fuel companies to fund recovery in vulnerable countries. He warned that the world is moving far too slowly.^[2]

More than 500 academics wrote to Albanese days before the summit. They seek a binding phase-out timetable and a ban on new projects, including in the Hunter Valley and Beetaloo. Professor Hughes says no government can credibly claim seriousness while contributing to the cause.^[4]

Australia also backs a voluntary pledge to double rooftop solar households, reaching at least 300 million by 2030. Bangladesh, Kenya, Nigeria, Palau and Vanuatu have joined. The pledge sets no binding targets and relies on streamlined permits and finance access.^[3]

Australia drafts the texts at COP31 while expanding the industries that drive the problem. Bowen defends that position as pragmatic, and Palau’s president backs Australian involvement. Pacific leaders still demand climate finance that avoids new debt for island nations.

Critics see a gap between diplomacy and domestic approvals. The electrification pledge advances progress on energy demand yet sidesteps the harder question of phasing out coal and gas exports.

Accountability now rests with the Albanese Government. A credible timetable to end new fossil fuel approvals would align domestic law with the negotiating mandate. It would also give Pacific partners evidence that Australian commitments extend beyond speeches.

References

1. Chris Bowen seeks pragmatic consensus heading into final COP31 talks . ABC News reports Bowen defending Australia’s negotiating credibility and describing a pragmatic approach amid pressure over coal and gas exports.

2. Australia faces climate questions at COP31 as PM calls for aid for Pacific . ABC News covers Albanese’s Pacific appeal, Guterres’s warning on new fossil fuel infrastructure and advocates’ criticism of coal and gas expansion.

3. COP31 electric power target sparks row over cutting fossil fuel use . ABC News explains the 35 by 35 electrification pledge, the dispute over clean power and Australia’s rooftop solar initiative.

4. Australia cannot ‘credibly lead’ COP31 without reform . The Canberra Times (AAP) reports an open letter from 503 academics seeking a binding fossil fuel phase-out timetable.

5. Bowen set for COP31 as Australia hits coal export record . The Australia Institute, a think tank, analyses record thermal coal exports and the pipeline of 42 new coal projects.

6. Australia to face heat on fossil fuels at climate talks . AAP reports Pacific criticism of Australian fossil fuel exports and the Fiji Times advertisement calling a coal mine expansion a betrayal.

7. After the compromise: Australia’s COP31 blueprint for the Pacific . The Lowy Institute outlines the President of Negotiations role and its responsibilities for draft texts and decisions.

8. Australia says COP31 co-presidency will work on a cover decision . Climate Home News reports Bowen’s plan for a cover decision instead of a lengthy political statement.

9. Pre-COP31: Australia must end fossil fuel expansion and support environmental defenders to show real climate leadership in the Asia-Pacific . Amnesty International Australia links Australia’s fossil fuel expansion to harm in the Pacific and highlights First Nations defenders.

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Active hope, not hot air: Why Citizens matter more than COPs - Gregory Andrews

Lyrebird Dreaming  –  Gregory Andrews

Author Gregory Andrews is: Founder and Managing Director of Lyrebird Dreaming A former Australian Ambassador and High Commissioner in West Africa Australia’s first Threatened Species Commissioner A leader in Indigenous policy

Last night, more than 120 people joined me at the National Library of Australia for a special Citizen COP screening of NATURE - The Call for Reconciliation, the extraordinary documentary by French filmmaker Yann Arthus-Bertrand.

We felt something that can sometimes be difficult to hold onto when working on climate change and biodiversity loss. Hope.

Not the passive kind that assumes that everything will be OK and someone else will fix things. But active hope. The kind that comes from people connecting, learning, organising and taking responsibility for our shared future.

And we weren’t alone. Across Australia now, more than 100 events are bringing people together through Citizen COP Australia 2026, an awesome initiative led by People for Nature. Aussies across every state and territory are participating, with workshops, community gatherings, films, creative events and online activities.

Meanwhile, world leaders are gathering in Türkiye for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference. And the contrast is striking.

Thirty years of climate talks. And where are we?

I spent much of my professional life working on climate change, biodiversity conservation and international diplomacy, including as part of Australia’s UN climate negotiating team.

I believe strongly in the United Nations. We need international cooperation to solve problems that no country can tackle alone. But believing in the UN doesn’t mean pretending the climate negotiations are delivering what science demands as necessary for a safe planet.

Here’s a sobering fact. Since the UN climate negotiations began in the early 1990s, global energy-related CO₂ emissions have increased by two-thirds. They’re now approaching 38.4 billion tonnes annually. Yes, progress has been made on renewables, electric vehicles and motherhood commitments. But the atmosphere doesn’t measure promises or speeches. It measures greenhouse gases. And the world is still adding more.

Australia’s climate hypocrisy

This week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is trying to spruik Australia’s climate credentials in Türkiye. But there’s an enormous elephant in the room. Australia is one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters and the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter on a per capita basis. We’re second only to Saudi Arabia!

Since we started attending the COPs, Australia's coal exports have almost tripled, and our gas exports have grown eleven fold. The emissions from burning those fossil fuels overseas are immense. Australia tries to say they’re not ours because they're released elsewhere. But the atmosphere doesn’t care whose spreadsheet records the emissions. We can’t keep congratulating ourselves for installing rooftop solar, subsidising batteries and switching to EVs while approving new coal and gas developments like there’s no tomorrow. The Albanese government has approved 38 major fossil fuel projects since 2022, locking in fossil fuel production for decades - even up to 2070!

Nor should we ignore what’s happening in Newcastle, where the council just banned climate protests with the support of NSW Premier Chris Minns and his Police Minister. Stopping protests won’t stop climate change or its impacts. Ending fossil fuels will.

At COP31 this week, UN Secretary-General António Guterres delivered a devastating observation: “The dinosaurs did not have a lobby. Fossil fuels do.” He’s right. The biggest barriers to climate action are no longer technological. They’re political.

Active hope, not hot air

This is precisely why Citizen COP matters. Last year, I rode my bicycle to AlterCOP. This year, People for Nature has taken the idea further, building a decentralised movement connecting Australians with the global climate and biodiversity negotiations. As a People for Nature Ambassador, I’ve been organising Citizen COP events in Canberra through Lyrebird Dreaming.

We’ve already enjoyed a birdwatching walk, identifying 30 species in just over two hours on Ngunnawal Country. Last night’s film screening brought more than 120 people together. And this Saturday, my dog Fred and I will be leading a Dogs for Climate Walk around Lake Burley Griffin.

These events are fun, but their message is serious. Community action isn’t a substitute for government action. It’s how we build public understanding, solidarity and political pressure that's needed to hold our elected representatives accountable.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese needs to stop expanding fossil fuel production, end fossil fuel subsidies, protect nature and hold polluters accountable. And as everyday Aussies, we need to hold him accountable by demanding those changes. What inspired me last night wasn’t simply the number of people attending. It was their enthusiasm. People choosing to spend their evening thinking about nature, climate change and our collective future. They were there because they cared about a safe future for our kids and Country. That’s powerful.

I want the UN climate negotiations to succeed. But the last 31 years of COPs shows we can’t leave the future of our planet to politicians and corporations.

Active hope isn’t wishful thinking. It’s choosing to act, even when the challenges are overwhelming. While politicians and corporate lobbyists talk in Türkiye, everyday Aussies are gathering, learning, connecting and demanding a better future. That’s not hot air. That’s active hope.

Participants at the screening of Nature at the National Library.

Invitation

Join us!

🐕 Dogs for Climate Walk — Canberra
Saturday 14 November, 10am, Lake Burley Griffin. Free, family-friendly and everyone welcome!
Register here

🌏 Citizen COP Australia 2026
Explore more than 100 events across Australia, including online activities.
Explore the national program

Gregory Andrews Climate Change Articles

• Australia’s Crocodile Tears in the Pacific 
• Climate and National Security: why is Albanese keeping the evidence secret?
• Community vs Coal: Climate’s ‘The Castle’ Moment
• Climate and National Security: why is Albanese keeping the evidence secret?
• Climate Warming Faster Than We Planned For?
• Weather Whiplash: Fasten Your Seatbelts
• Australia’s Flagship Climate Policy Is Failing to Cut Emissions
• Winter's Here, The Snowfields Are Open, But There's No Snow
• Worried About Climate Collapse? Here's Ten Things You Can Actually Do
• Fossil Fuel Fascism: When a Dying Industry Tries to Take Democracy With It
• Climate Policy Counts Dollars and Tonnes. What if We Counted the Dead?
• The Climate Crisis is a Health Crisis
• The Science Is In: Global Warming Is Accelerating
• While We Watch Iran, the Planet Keeps Burning
• Have your say on Canberra's next Climate Strategy: It will be make or break
• Science Warns of Future Where Billions Bake
• Two Years to 1.7°C: the “Prediction Game” We Can't Afford to Lose
• Emergency Photo Ops Aren't Climate Leadership
• Why Fascists Reject Climate Science
• Don't Be Distracted: Earth's Life Support Systems Are Collapsing
• Diesel rebates for miners and a new EV tax? Australia's climate policy double-think
• What Gas is That? Get to Know Your Climate Pollutants

COP31: Australia's Pacific Promises Collide With Its Coal and Gas Expansion - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia's unprecedented COP31 negotiating role faces mounting scrutiny
over its continuing support for fossil fuel expansion

Key Points

Australia and Türkiye share COP31 leadership through separate hosting and negotiation responsibilities.[1] Pacific nations are demanding climate justice and meaningful protection against rising seas and climate damage.[2] The 35 by 35 initiative seeks electricity to supply 35 per cent of global final energy consumption by 2035.[3] Australia's continuing coal and gas approvals undermine its international climate leadership.[4] The Pacific Resilience Facility faces a substantial funding shortfall despite Australia's $100 million commitment.[5] Climate finance and practical implementation remain central tests of COP31's international credibility.[6]

Thirteen-year-old Melelusi Sokotia has a dream of becoming a doctor. 

The Tuvalu teenager also fears her island home may disappear beneath rising seas. 

Her message to world leaders at COP31 carried the weight of that uncertainty. 

She wanted partnership and practical assistance rather than sympathy. 

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese brought her words to Antalya as evidence of the Pacific's increasingly urgent predicament.[4]

The encounter exposed the central contradiction confronting Australia's diplomatic leadership. 

Canberra is helping direct negotiations while continuing to approve projects that extend coal and gas production. 

The contradiction has become a major focus of international scrutiny. 

COP31 offers Australia an opportunity to demonstrate climate leadership through practical decisions rather than diplomatic language alone.[4]

Governance and the Australia-Türkiye Compromise

The unusual arrangement emerged after Australia and Türkiye reached a compromise over hosting COP31. 

Australia withdrew its contested bid to stage the conference in Adelaide. Türkiye secured the physical hosting responsibilities in Antalya while Australia gained the presidency of negotiations. The arrangement also incorporated Pacific countries as important regional partners.[1]

Türkiye's Environment Minister Murat Kurum serves as COP31 President. Australia's Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen serves as President of Negotiations. Türkiye oversees the host arrangements and conference infrastructure. Bowen leads the diplomatic process, seeking agreement among nearly 200 participating countries on climate commitments and implementation.[1]

The distinction extends into the conference's physical organisation. The Blue Zone accommodates official negotiations, national delegations, accredited observers and media. The UNFCCC administers access to this restricted area. Türkiye manages the Green Zone, which provides public exhibitions, community activities and opportunities for wider participation.[1]

The World Leaders' Summit is taking place on 11 and 12 November. Its programme brings heads of government together before the remaining negotiations conclude on 20 November. Bowen's challenge involves translating competing national interests into agreements. 

His diplomatic authority depends on maintaining confidence among countries with sharply different economic circumstances and climate responsibilities.[6]

Pacific Partnerships and the Resilience Facility

Pacific nations entered COP31 after hosting important preparatory discussions in Fiji and Tuvalu. Their priorities include protecting the 1.5°C temperature limit, accelerating fossil fuel reductions and securing accessible climate finance. Pacific governments also want greater influence over decisions affecting their territories, oceans and communities.[2]

Albanese placed these concerns at the centre of his address. He recalled meeting Melelusi Sokotia in Tuvalu and repeated her appeal for international partnership. His message urged wealthier countries to recognise their responsibility towards vulnerable island populations. Rising seas threaten homes, freshwater supplies, infrastructure, livelihoods and cultural connections to ancestral lands.[4]

Australia is also promoting the Pacific Resilience Facility, a Pacific-led financing institution. Its purpose is to provide grants for community adaptation, disaster preparedness and nature-based solutions. Australia has committed $100 million as its foundational contribution. The facility aims initially to raise US$500 million for locally directed resilience projects.[5]

However, fundraising remains a substantial challenge. Reuters reported in October that international commitments had lifted available pledges to just under US$200 million. Pacific representatives want predictable funding with simpler application procedures. They also demand greater recognition of losses involving ancestral lands, cultural heritage and community identity.[5]

Clean Energy and the 2035 Electrification Target

Electrification provides the principal practical initiative promoted by the Turkish presidency. The proposed 35 by 35 pledge seeks to increase electricity's share of global final energy consumption from approximately 23 per cent to 35 per cent by 2035. It represents an effort to accelerate the replacement of fossil fuel combustion across major economic sectors.[3]

Transport, buildings and industrial production offer substantial opportunities for electrification. Electric vehicles can replace petrol and diesel engines. Electric heating can reduce dependence on gas. Industrial electrification can also lower emissions where clean electricity replaces fossil fuel combustion. 

Renewable generation, storage, modern transmission networks and workforce training remain essential to implementation.[3]

The initiative also carries economic opportunities for Australian businesses. Renewable electricity, battery storage, critical minerals and emerging manufacturing industries offer potential export markets. Australian companies can supply technologies, expertise and materials supporting international energy transitions. However, investment certainty requires consistent domestic policy and credible long-term emissions commitments.[3]

The proposal nevertheless contains an important limitation. Its headline target concerns electricity consumption rather than the proportion generated from renewable sources. Countries could increase electrification while continuing to use fossil-fuelled power stations. 

Consequently, renewable generation and stronger electricity networks must accompany the initiative if it delivers substantial emissions reductions.[3]

Fossil Fuel Approvals and Diplomatic Tensions

Australia's continuing fossil fuel approvals present the most serious challenge to its COP31 leadership. The Climate Council identified 38 new, expanded or extended coal, oil and gas developments approved under the Albanese Government by March 2026. Several projects extend production commitments well beyond 2050.[7]

The problem extends beyond emissions from Australian mining operations. Exported coal and gas generate additional greenhouse pollution when overseas customers burn those fuels. Climate advocates argue that approving further extraction undermines international efforts to limit warming. 

They want governments to establish credible production decline schedules and stop approving new fossil fuel developments.[7]

Australia's domestic climate commitments sharpen the contradiction. The Government adopted a 2035 emissions reduction target of 62 to 70 per cent below 2005 levels. Achieving that commitment requires substantial reductions across electricity, transport, industry and other sectors. Continued fossil fuel expansion raises questions about policy consistency and accountability.[8]

The controversy also places Türkiye under scrutiny. Its domestic economy continues to depend substantially on coal, creating tensions between national energy policies and international climate responsibilities. At Antalya, the two presidential partners face similar credibility challenges. Both must demonstrate that their negotiating leadership supports meaningful action at home.[4]

Global Climate Finance and the Summit's Stakes

Climate finance remains one of the most difficult issues confronting international negotiations. Developing countries require substantial investment to reduce emissions, prepare for extreme weather and recover from climate disasters. Many already face high borrowing costs and mounting public debt. Vulnerable nations consequently demand accessible grants rather than additional financial obligations.[6]

The Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu reinforced that position during the leaders' summit. He called for new, additional, predictable and grant-based climate finance. His intervention reflected concerns across vulnerable developing countries. Governments facing rising seas and destructive weather increasingly struggle to finance essential infrastructure and community protection.[6]

The political atmosphere also complicates negotiations. Wars, trade disputes, economic instability and energy security concerns compete with climate priorities. Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned that geopolitical disputes were displacing climate change from international political discussions. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres urged governments to accelerate action.[6]

COP31's presidency has emphasised practical implementation rather than one comprehensive new climate agreement. Its Action Agenda covers clean energy, resilient cities, industrial transformation, food security, oceans and health systems. Success therefore depends on measurable investment, accessible finance and credible national commitments. 

The final negotiations must demonstrate progress beyond speeches and declarations.[6]

Australia occupies an unusual position at COP31. Its negotiating responsibilities offer considerable diplomatic influence, while its domestic fossil fuel decisions invite international criticism. Pacific communities expect leadership measured through tangible reductions in climate risks and stronger regional support.

The electrification initiative and Pacific Resilience Facility provide practical opportunities. Their success requires adequate funding, transparent governance and measurable outcomes. Climate finance must reach vulnerable communities without adding unsustainable debt.

Ultimately, Australia's credibility depends on consistency between international commitments and domestic policy. The government must demonstrate that its climate leadership extends beyond conference negotiations. COP31 provides an important opportunity to establish that standard through accountable decisions and a credible transition away from fossil fuels.

References

1. UNFCCC: About COP31. Official explanation of the Australia-Türkiye governance arrangement, conference dates and access arrangements. Back to article ↑

2. Pacific Islands Climate Action Network: Pacific Climate Justice Demands 2026. Documents Pacific civil society's priorities concerning fossil fuels, climate finance, human rights and loss and damage. Back to article ↑

3. Chris Bowen: Speech, COP31 Opening Plenary. Sets out Australia's electrification proposal and the 35 per cent electricity target for 2035. Back to article ↑

4. ABC News: Australia Faces Climate Leadership Questions at COP31 as PM Calls for Pacific Aid. Reports Albanese's Pacific appeal and criticism of Australian fossil fuel expansion. Back to article ↑

5. Reuters: Pacific's New Climate Fund Gets $15 Million Boost but Remains Far Below Target. Examines the Pacific Resilience Facility's fundraising position and financing objectives. Back to article ↑

6. Reuters: World Leaders Speak at COP31 Climate Conference. Reports statements from Albanese, Guterres, Lula, Muizzu and other international leaders. Back to article ↑

7. Climate Council: The Albanese Government's Fossil Fuel Approvals. Documents approved fossil fuel developments and their potential climate consequences. Back to article ↑

8. Australian Government: Setting Australia's 2035 Climate Change Target. Confirms the national emissions reduction commitment of 62 to 70 per cent below 2005 levels. Back to article ↑

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Power, Water and Heat: The Hidden Costs of Australia's Data Centre Boom - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

AI data centres are straining Australia's grid and water supplies
while governments draft the rules

Key Points

AEMO forecasts that data centre electricity use will rise from about 5 to 34 terawatt-hours by 2035-36. That lifts their share of National Electricity Market consumption from 3% to 13%.[1] The Climate Council finds that unchecked demand could make the national grid 14% more polluting in 2035.[2] Direct national data centre water use totals about 5.5 billion litres a year. Sydney Water has fielded applications for single sites needing 40 million litres a day.[3] XDI ranks Australia 22nd for climate risk to planned data centres, with one of the steepest projected increases.[4] A preprint finds that Sydney data centres intensify heatwaves, particularly at night.[5] National standards due in early 2027 will exempt 27 approved projects totalling at least 3.38 gigawatts.[6]

Software engineer Jack Tollefsen tends a community garden on Sydney's western fringe. 

NEXTDC is building a large data centre campus down the road from his workplace. 

Tollefsen has launched a petition against that project and others in suburban areas.^[6]

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecasts that data centres will use nearly seven times as much electricity by 2035-36. 

Water utilities, researchers and the Climate Council say the costs extend well beyond the power bill.^[1][2]

The Scale of the Surge

AEMO counts about 165 data centres that consumed roughly 5 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2025-26. A terawatt-hour equals one billion kilowatt-hours. 

That represents about 3% of consumption on the National Electricity Market (NEM), which supplies eastern and south-eastern Australia.^[1]

AEMO's most likely scenario lifts that figure to about 34 terawatt-hours by 2035-36, or 13% of NEM consumption. 

Developers have proposed 225 projects totalling 67 gigawatts, or 67 million kilowatts, of capacity. 

Cancellations temper that pipeline, since developers abandoned 36% of the projects AEMO listed in 2025.^[1]

AEMO expects business and large industrial users to stay bigger consumers than data centres in 2035-36. 

Growth nonetheless runs fast, with Victorian data centre demand nearly doubling in a year, the Climate Council reports. Demand in New South Wales (NSW) rose 18%.^[1][2]

The Climate Council's June report calculates that all proposed projects together would draw more than 21 gigawatts at peak. That equals over seven times the capacity of Eraring, Australia's biggest coal-fired power station. 

One proposed 1.2-gigawatt facility at Mamre Road in NSW would have a maximum capacity 25% above the Tomago Aluminium Smelter.^[2]

Emissions and the Coal and Gas Question

Climate pollution depends on what generates the extra electricity. The Climate Council finds that unchecked demand would prolong reliance on coal and gas. Its analysis shows the national grid could emit 14% more pollution in 2035 than it otherwise would.^[2]

The Climate Council projects that gas-fuelled growth would raise wholesale prices by up to 26% in NSW by 2035. Victorian prices would rise by up to 23%. Matching new demand with additional renewables and storage would almost entirely avoid those increases.^[2]

The Clean Energy Finance Corporation estimates that data centres without new renewables would add 5.86 million tonnes of emissions yearly. A Greenpeace Australia report by analyst Ketan Joshi cites that 2035 estimate. Data Centres Australia, the industry body, rejects the report's claims about scale and causation.^[7]

Coal closures raise the stakes. The Climate Council warns that fossil-fuelled supply would delay coal station retirements and deepen reliance on expensive gas. Renewables and storage now supply about 45% of electricity on the main grid, nearly double their share six years ago.^[2]

Water Pressure in the Growth Corridors

Servers convert nearly all their electricity into heat. University of Melbourne researcher Reza Hosseini says evaporative cooling, which evaporates water to shed heat, costs least in Australia. That evaporated water leaves the system and needs replacing.^[3]

Industry-commissioned analysis puts direct data centre water use at about 5.5 billion litres a year, or 0.04% of national use. Industry forecasts show that figure more than tripling to around 17 billion litres by 2030. Farming alone accounts for roughly two-thirds of the water Australia uses.^[3]

The pressure concentrates where data centres cluster, in outer suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne with stretched drinking-water networks. Sydney Water has fielded applications for single facilities needing up to 40 million litres a day. It told a NSW parliamentary inquiry that proposed facilities with water-intensive cooling could demand 250 million litres daily by 2035.^[3]

Forecasts for Sydney diverge sharply. The data centre sector estimates 1.9% of Sydney's supply by 2030, according to the Water Services Association of Australia. Sydney Water estimates 15 to 20% by 2035, building its figure from market applications and discounting unlikely projects.^[8]

Heat, Fire and Flood Exposure

XDI, a physical climate risk analysis company, examined almost 2,600 planned data centres worldwide. It found 154, or about 6%, already vulnerable to physical damage or disruption from climate hazards. The analysis covered 11 hazards, including flooding, bushfire, tropical cyclones and extreme heat.^[4]

Australia ranks 22nd globally for that risk but faces one of the steepest projected increases over time. XDI director Karl Mallon says rising temperatures strain cooling systems. He warns that electricity, telecommunications and cooling water supplies may prove more vulnerable than the data centres themselves.^[4]

Andrew Pitman and colleagues analysed existing, under-construction and planned data centres in Sydney. They found that the facilities intensify heatwaves, particularly at night. The study remains a preprint, a paper that has yet to complete peer review.^[5]

The affected area, the heat intensity and the number of people exposed depend on facility size and cooling technology. The authors recommend siting large data centres outside the city. They note that this approach could support regional development.^[5]

Rules That Arrive After the Approvals

The federal government plans to legislate national standards by early 2027. It says large data centres must underwrite new renewables, cover connection costs, use water efficiently and choose suitable sites. State and territory governments keep responsibility for local planning and approvals.^[6]

ABC analysis found 27 approved but unbuilt data centres totalling at least 3.38 gigawatts. This new generation will run significantly larger and more power-hungry than existing facilities. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says the rules will cover future proposals only, since retrofitting is impractical.^[6]

Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young wants a moratorium, or temporary halt, on new approvals until standards exist. She argues that rules without retrospective force, meaning power to reach approved projects, have little value. Data Centres Australia says members will keep meeting government expectations until the new rules take effect.^[6]

States remain divided. Queensland and the Northern Territory rejected parts of the framework in July, including legislated renewable requirements. In August, Energy Minister Chris Bowen said Commonwealth laws would stop states approving large fossil-fuelled data centres.^[9][10]

Australia's data centre boom is outrunning the rulebook meant to govern it. AEMO forecasts a nearly sevenfold rise in electricity use within a decade, and proposals keep multiplying. Whether that demand raises or lowers pollution depends on the power supply behind it.

The evidence reveals gaps in accountability. Approved projects sit outside the coming standards. Water forecasts rely on industry or utility estimates, and heat research awaits peer review.

Credible oversight needs enforceable rules, public reporting and clear accounting of who bears the costs. Governments, regulators and developers hold those levers. Neighbours of western Sydney's new campuses already live with the results.

References

1. AEMO, 2026 ESOO Data Centre Forecasting Overview. AEMO's explainer sets out current data centre consumption, the 2035-36 forecast, the project pipeline and cancellation rates.

2. Climate Council, Clouded Future: Managing the Risks of the Data Centre Boom. The June 2026 report models price, emissions and water risks from unmanaged data centre growth and recommends enforceable rules.

3. M. Reza Hosseini, What AI Data Centres Really Mean for Australia's Water Supply (University of Melbourne, Pursuit). A University of Melbourne researcher tests viral water claims against utility, industry and policy evidence.

4. XDI, Data Centres Being Planned in Areas Vulnerable to Extreme Weather Events. XDI summarises its global analysis of physical climate risk to almost 2,600 planned data centres.

5. Pitman et al., Large Data Centres in Cities Risk Suburban Heating (Research Square preprint). This preprint, which has yet to complete peer review, reports that Sydney data centres intensify night-time heatwaves.

6. ABC News, The Bigger, Hungrier AI Data Centres Set to Escape Looming Water and Power Restrictions. ABC analysis shows dozens of approved projects will fall outside the proposed national standards.

7. Information Age (ACS), 'Energy Vampires': Calls to Pause Data Centre Frenzy. The article reports the Greenpeace analysis, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation estimate and the industry rebuttal.

8. Water Services Association of Australia, Data Centres and Water in Australia. The peak water body compares industry and Sydney Water forecasts and explains how utilities treat speculative demand.

9. ABC News, Renewables, Nuclear, Gas? Data Centre Boom Energises Political Debate. ABC reports that Queensland and the Northern Territory rejected parts of the national framework.

10. PV Tech, Australia Sets National Data Centre Standard, Bars State Waivers. The report covers Chris Bowen's warning that Commonwealth laws will block fossil-fuelled data centre approvals.

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