Nest’s Mark Fawcett says the long-term future of the global economy is green
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That’s smart, because by the time they retire, climate change and whatever humans do in the next 30 years to mitigate its effects will almost certainly have transformed the way we live; a transformation that could also have a big impact on their prospects for retirement.
Donald Trump, the US president, signed an executive order in March rolling back his predecessor’s Clean Power Plan, rejecting with a stroke of the pen what one commentator called “the most important thing any nation had ever done to reduce carbon emissions”.
Will that alter the long-term picture? We don’t think so.
It is not clear what impact it may have, but we believe the long-term future of the global economy is green.
The reasons are political, technological and financial.
The cost of generating solar and wind power is becoming cheaper than fossil fuels in many parts of the world.
Renewable capacity overtook coal-fired generation for the first time in 2016.
China and India, respectively the world’s biggest and third-biggest polluters, have been investing heavily in green energy at home.
China is planning to spend £292bn on its domestic green-energy market in the next three years and India’s Central Electricity Authority recently said that no coal-fired power stations will be built over the coming decade beyond those already in the pipeline.
It is predicted that renewable-energy capacity in India will overtake that of new fossil fuel plants from 2018.
The energy infrastructure market appears to be heading in the same direction.
Once again, where the US appears to be pulling back, China is stepping forward.
Not only has it invested in more clean power at home, it is pouring money into developing economies’ energy infrastructure, spending $165bn since 2000.
And the focus of that money, while fossil fuels still dominate, may be starting to shift to cleaner sources such as nuclear, hydropower and renewables.
China outspent any other country in the world on overseas investments in green technology in 2016.
Closer to home, commitments made in Paris at the global climate talks in 2015 have spurred many businesses into action.
Utility companies in almost every EU country pledged in March to phase out coal-fired plants from 2020.
These companies are not waiting around for governments to shift the ground under their feet.
Those that are not thinking about how to diversify away from heavily polluting fossil fuels will probably face future losses as markets leave them behind and policies penalise them.
For institutional investors with long-term horizons, the debate is not whether there will be a transition to a lower-carbon economy, it is about how quickly it occurs.
Pension fund trustees in the UK have spent some time pondering the legalities of climate-related de-risking strategies, and some still are.
Now these strategies are becoming an investment imperative.
Short-term policy shifts may well have short-term effects.
But for millennials saving into pensions for the next 40 to 50 years, the global transition to a low-carbon economy, which appears highly likely, is a more significant trend.
Among the world’s largest institutional investors, whose ranks Nest will join in the coming decade, that long-term picture is guiding our thinking.
The smart money is being used to signal to businesses that a profound economic change in the way power is generated is happening.
This is not about divestment.
It is not in our members’ interests for companies to make losses or become unprofitable.
But we do need to plan ahead and prepare their portfolios for the evident investment risks and opportunities that climate change and the transition to low carbon represent.
That means finding scaleable, cost-effective ways to invest more in those companies that are well positioned for the low-carbon future, investing less in those that are not and engaging where progress can be encouraged.
Over the next 15 years or so, £1.7tn is due to flow into defined contribution pensions in the UK.
We believe a significant proportion of those assets will be channelled towards a greener global economy.
There may be mixed messages coming from the US at the moment, but the signals from the rest of the world, including the world of finance, are clear.
*Mark Fawcett is chief investment officer of Nest, the UK state-backed workplace pension provider.
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