Climate Central - Brian Kahn
Summers
around the world are already warmer than they used to be, and they're
going to get dramatically hotter by century's end if carbon pollution
continues to rise. That problem will be felt most acutely in cities.
The world's rapidly growing population coupled with the urban heat island effect
— which can make cities up to 14°F (7.8°C) warmer than their leafy,
rural counterparts — add up to a recipe for dangerous and potentially
deadly heat.
Currently,
about 54 percent of the world's population lives in cities, and by 2050
the urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion people. As
those cities get hotter, weather patterns may shift and make extreme heat even more common. That will in turn threaten public health and the economy.
Summers
around the world are already warmer than they used to be, and they're
going to get dramatically hotter by century's end if carbon pollution
continues to rise. That problem will be felt most acutely in cities.
The world's rapidly growing population coupled with the urban heat
island effect — which can make cities up to 14°F (7.8°C) warmer than
their leafy, rural counterparts — add up to a recipe for dangerous and
potentially deadly heat.
Currently, about 54 percent of the world's population lives in cities,
and by 2050 the urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion
people. As those cities get hotter, weather patterns may shift and make
extreme heat even more common. That will in turn threaten public health
and the economy.
To
illustrate just how hot cities' future could be and the choices they
face, Climate Central created the interactive above in partnership with
the World Meteorological Organization. It shows how the average summer
high in the future in each of these cities compares to other cities of
today. In some cases, the shift puts them in a completely new
temperature zone.
Under the high-pollution scenario, currently mild Ottawa,
Canada could have the tropical climate of Belize City by 2100.
Mountainous Kabul, Afghanistan could feel like coastal Colombo, India.
Already hot Cairo, Egypt could feel like its downright sweltering
neighbor Abu Dhabi.
The average land temperature is projected to rise 8.6°F (4.8°C), but
due to the vagaries of geography, some cities will warm much more.
Sofia, Bulgaria has the biggest overall temperature shift, with
temperatures rising nearly 15°F (8.4°C) by 2100. That would make its
summers more like Port Said, Egypt.
To illustrate just how hot
cities' future could be and the choices they face, Climate Central
created the interactive above in partnership with the World
Meteorological Organization. It shows how the average summer high in the
future in each of these cities compares to other cities of today. In
some cases, the shift puts them in a completely new temperature zone.
Under the high-pollution scenario, currently mild Ottawa, Canada could
have the tropical climate of Belize City by 2100. Mountainous Kabul,
Afghanistan could feel like coastal Colombo, India. Already hot Cairo,
Egypt could feel like its downright sweltering neighbor Abu Dhabi.
The average land temperature is projected to rise 8.6°F (4.8°C), but due
to the vagaries of geography, some cities will warm much more. Sofia,
Bulgaria has the biggest overall temperature shift, with temperatures
rising nearly 15°F (8.4°C) by 2100. That would make its summers more
like Port Said, Egypt.
Up
to a dozen cities will heat up so much, their summers will have no
analog currently on Earth. Khartoum, Sudan’s average summer temperature
is projected to skyrocket to 111.4°F (44.1°C) if carbon pollution
continues unchecked. That shift underscores that unless carbon pollution
is curbed, the planet could be headed toward a state humans have never
experienced.
Reducing carbon emissions still means temperatures will rise in
cities (and everywhere else). In Khartoum, moderate cuts mean the city’s
summer average high is projected to top out at 106.9°F (41.6°C), a high
that is still hot (as hot as Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to be exact) but at
least of-this-planet hot.
Dealing
with less extreme heat makes adaptation easier and less expensive, and
given that choice, perhaps it’s no surprise cities are leading the
charge on climate change. They face the worst impacts of extreme heat
and are home to billions.
That’s why thousands of mayors from around the
world have banded together and pledged to reduce their emissions. That
includes multitudes of U.S. cities committing to meet the Paris Agreement goals after President Trump announced he was pulling the U.S. from the pact, and even more ambitious moves like Oslo’s pledge to nearly zero its emissions by 2030.
WMO and Climate Central are launching a series of climate reports
by TV weather presenters from across the world. The first videos are
from Barcelona, Madrid and Hanoi. Others will roll out in the coming
weeks.
Up to a dozen cities will heat up so much, their summers will
have no analog currently on Earth. Khartoum, Sudan’s average summer
temperature is projected to skyrocket to 111.4°F (44.1°C) if carbon
pollution continues unchecked. That shift underscores that unless carbon
pollution is curbed, the planet could be headed toward a state humans
have never experienced.
Reducing carbon emissions still means temperatures will rise in cities
(and everywhere else). In Khartoum, moderate cuts mean the city’s summer
average high is projected to top out at 106.9°F (41.6°C), a high that
is still hot (as hot as Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to be exact) but at least
of-this-planet hot.
Dealing with less extreme heat makes adaptation easier and less
expensive, and given that choice, perhaps it’s no surprise cities are
leading the charge on climate change. They face the worst impacts of
extreme heat and are home to billions.
That’s why thousands of mayors
from around the world have banded together and pledged to reduce their
emissions. That includes multitudes of U.S. cities committing to meet
the Paris Agreement goals after President Trump announced he was pulling
the U.S. from the pact, and even more ambitious moves like Oslo’s
pledge to nearly zero its emissions by 2030.
WMO and Climate Central are launching a series of climate reports by TV
weather presenters from across the world. The first videos are from
Barcelona, Madrid and Hanoi. Others will roll out in the coming weeks.
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