Partway during Friday's summit of the nation's energy ministers, Victoria's Lily D'Ambrosio interrupted a presentation by the Energy Security Board to query a dot-point about concessions for low-income earners.
"Where did that come from?" she reportedly asked, wondering who had directed that research. Such a proposal at this point was a "non starter".
The problem, though, is not so much the board's unsolicited research but the torrent of studies that comes out of the Melbourne gathering – and the fault lines that they may open up.
That work – presumably to be done well before the ministers meet for a "final determination" on the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) on August 10 in Sydney – includes more details on emissions targets, offsets, the reliability standard to accompany the emissions one, market power mitigation, and the thorny issue of "additionality".
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| Josh Frydenberg has his hands full trying to develop a masterplan for energy and climate policy. Photo: Joe Armao |
Federal environment and energy minister Josh Frydenberg stepped up the charm offensive in the past two days, starting with an amicable dinner with his state and territory counterparts on Thursday, then a four-hour working session on Friday, becoming "much less Bolshie than earlier in the week", as one participant noted.
Gone were blasts at Victoria, Queensland and the ACT for pursuing "reckless" renewable energy and emission-reduction targets.
Instead, Frydenberg's gentler response: "we wouldn't like to see a proliferation of state schemes", and an acceptance that, anyway, "we don't have the power to prevent [them]."
Frydenberg secured what he wanted: an agreement to proceed with the more detailed design of the "world-first" plan that he promises will drive electricity prices down, bolster the grid's reliability, and cut the sector's greenhouse gas emissions by just over a quarter from 2005 levels by 2030.
Hadn't the past half-year's frenzy of work by the Energy Security Board – from modelling, consultation papers, "high level design" documents and so on – provided enough certainty that this scheme might work?
Apparently not, if the lengthy list of work the board or the government agreed to "urgently provide" is any guide.
Toss in the Greens' request for the ESB to examine emissions cuts in other sectors (likely to be more expensive in most, such as transport), and the modellers' picnic becomes a feast.
And somewhere down the track lies possibly Frydenberg's biggest challenge.
If the scheme passes muster with Labor and Greens-led states and territories, will conservative backbench colleagues approve – particularly if they detect the hint of an emissions intensity scheme and a carbon price buried within?
For those reasons, Friday's pause in the climate wars may turn out to be a phony peace before skirmishes break out anew.
Links
- 'Not a big drama' for electricity industry to slash emissions, says scheme architect
- Phony peace? Challenges to energy plan sent back to modelling board
- Victoria Demands New Detailed Analysis On NEG After COAG Meeting
- Labor states urged to reject 'woefully inadequate' emissions reduction target
- Josh Frydenberg makes last-minute pitch to states to back Neg
- We must fix the foundation of our energy policy to get out of the current mess
- Turnbull renews pressure on NSW premier to approve Narrabri gas project
- Ending land clearing would compete with renewables for carbon abatement, analysis finds
- Victoria says Coag energy meeting a stunt to save 'Malcolm Turnbull's skin'
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