 |
| China hopes coal-fired power plants will become a thing of the past. (ABC News: Brant Cumming) |
The IPCC issued its bleakest report yet this week, saying that without drastic changes, the world doesn't have a hope of avoiding uncontrollable climate change.
Unless emissions are halved within 12 years and virtually eliminated by 2050, temperature increases will likely exceed 2 degrees Celsius.
Beyond 2 degrees, scientists predict temperature increases may spiral as the climate breaches a series of unique tipping points, such as the melting of the permafrost.
The top culprit is fossil fuels, and the instructions to Australia and the rest of the world are clear: Quit coal by 2050.
Specifically, the report's authors say that coal usage needs to drop to between 0 and 2 per cent of existing levels.
At the moment, the countries responsible for the bulk of the world's emissions are scaling down their reliance on coal, but developing countries in South-East Asia are moving in the exact opposite direction, even going so far as to build new coal-fired power plants with the help of foreign finance.
If they're all built, Australian coal is likely to be used to keep those generators running for decades into the future.
So with all that in mind, is it possible for the world to quit coal in time?
Australia's coal habit
Much has been written about Australia's love affair with coal.
The bulk of Australia's coal is mined in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland, with the most polluting coal — also known as brown coal — coming predominantly from Victoria.
Australia has more than 21 coal-fired power stations in operation, and still relies heavily on coal for electricity.
There are no new coal-fired power stations currently being built in Australia, but Energy Market Analyst Tim Buckley has told The Signal 80 per cent of Australia's coal is exported.
He said he believes "it's entirely possible, [but] it's entirely improbable" that Australia will manage to wean itself off coal by 2050, if the current policy settings remain.
The Government's own figures, released two weeks ago, reveal Australia's emissions are currently rising.
But Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he's confident Australia will meet its 2030 Paris targets to cut emissions 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels.
 |
| While there are no new coal-fired power stations being built in Australia, 80 per cent of Australia's coal is exported to other countries. (Supplied: Clean Energy for Eternity) |
By contrast, the US, China, Japan, and India are the world's biggest emitters.
Tim Buckley said Japan has been slow to act, but has had a recent change of heart.
"Japan is definitely pivoting. They've gone from being a world laggard — Japan is going in the other direction".
China and India on the other hand, have been investing heavily in renewables.
"What happens in China drives the world when it comes to coal.
"China is half the world's coal production, half the world's coal consumption — it's the biggest importer of coal, and for the last five years the chinese central leadership has been on an absolute mission to decarbonise their economy"."India is really exciting. Prime Minister [Narendra] Modi was elected on a solar platform.
"They are saying that 40 per cent of their electricity generation capacity by 2027 will be renewable energy, up from maybe 10 per cent three years ago, so it's just a huge transformation."
US President Donald Trump has expressed enthusiasm for coal, and long threatened to pull America out of the Paris Climate Agreement.
But Tim Buckley said the transformation set in motion during the Obama years was significant.
"Coal went from being 50 per cent of US electricity system a decade ago, but it hit a record low last year of 30 per cent and it's gone even lower this year".
Of Australia's reliance on coal as an export, he said: "We can turn the ship around. Our biggest customers are turning the ship around."
Which countries are doubling down
Not every country is bailing out of coal.
In fact, Australian coal miners are likely to have markets in the region for decades to come.
"South-East Asia is still on a coal-fired power station expansion program, that's really the last bastion of growth".
 |
| Tim Buckley says the rest of the world's cuts won't be enough to compensate for further increases in coal use in South-East Asia. (Supplied: Rio Tinto) |
Tim Buckley said if all those plans come to pass, the rest of the world's cuts won't be enough to compensate for that increase.
"Therefore we have to assume that the world is going to go off the climate cliff.
"We are going to have a climate catastrophe if Asia continues to get foreign subsidies finance to build these coal plants, because once you build a coal plant, you're locking in 45 years of coal burning."So if Asia goes and replicates the same sort of industrialisation that Australia, America, Europe and China have all done, we all go off the cliff".
How to get coal under control
Tim Buckley said each of those power plants will cost $2-$3 billion dollars to build, and require government subsidies.
He says the capital subsidies supporting those planned projects are coming primarily from Japan, South Korea and China.
He's hopeful that finance will fall through.
"If South Korea and Japan stop providing those subsidies, China is now the last man standing.
"If China moves, and pulls the subsidies, there is no way new coal plants will be built in South-East Asia, they will pivot to renewables."Links
- Analysts see future for Australian coal miners despite UN warning
- Environment Minister says top climate scientists got it wrong over coal report
- 'Let's pretend this is WWIII': Richard Branson hits out at Australia over climate change
- The reality is new coal power is not the answer for cheaper electricity bills
No comments :
Post a Comment