Australia is set to fall significantly short of its Paris climate change targets, undermining claims by the Morrison government that the economy will meet its international obligations "in a canter."
Official figures released by the Department of Environment and Energy on Friday show that on current trends Australia will only reach an emission reduction target of 7 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, a massive 19 percentage points or two thirds of the way short of the minimum target mandated by the Paris agreement.
But the government will argue that under UN accounting rules, Australia is eligible to carry forward credit for targets it has met since 2008 - a move ruled out by Britain, Germany and New Zealand - slashing in half the emissions reductions required to meet our international obligations.
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| Environment Minister Melissa Price. Credit:Alex Ellinghausen |
"The suite of policies our government has put in place support the environment while also delivering on our plan for a stronger economy," he said.
Up until last week, neither the Coalition nor Labor would rule out counting Australia's expected credits from beating its 2020 goal under the Kyoto Protocol against its 2030 Paris pledge.
Greens climate change spokesman Adam Bandt accused the government of "cooking the books" and shirking their environmental obligations.
"Because they can't reduce emissions, the government is resorting to dodgy accounting to meet our measly Paris targets," he said.
The new figures, released on the Friday before Christmas, show Australia is on track to beat its Kyoto commitments for 2020 by at least 240 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.
But a boom in LNG production, a population driven transport surge and an increase in beef production means it would fall short of the 2030 target by as much as 695 million tonnes on current projections.
Barring international objections to the Morrison government's decision, the UN accounting rules are expected to halve that task, with the 26 to 28 per cent target effectively turning into a 15 per cent cut on 2005 levels.
Environment Minister Melissa Price said the figures were a "great result for the environment".
"We have over-achieved on our 2020 target and are well on our way to meeting our commitment to the Paris Agreement 2030 target, all while maintaining a strong economy," she said.
The electricity sector has led the 73 million tonnes in projected reductions since the 2017 report, with an increase in demand from a growing population is expected to be met by continued growth in rooftop solar and thermal generation.
| Still way off target Australia’s 2018 emissions trends compared with 2017 projections.  | |
| Source: Department of Environment, December 2018 |
The reductions mean emissions from the national electricity market are on track to be 26 per cent below 2005 levels - a claim frequently made by Mr Morrison and Energy Minister Angus Taylor. Electricity only accounts for 34 per cent of Australia’s emissions, with transport and stationary energy accounting for 19 per cent and agriculture 13 per cent.
"There is no electricity emissions target in Australian or international law," said the Australian Conservation Foundation’s economics program manager, Matt Rose.
"Australia has an economy-wide 2030 goal that takes in electricity, transport, heavy industry and other sectors."
The report shows the drought affecting much of the east coast will restrict agriculture activity, leading to a short-term 1 per cent drop in emissions, mostly from fewer cows emitting methane gas.
The fall is only expected to be temporary as grain-fed cows increasingly replace pasture-based cows.
"The projections have accounted for an assumed increase in grain-fed beef cattle in feedlots due to these cattle being less susceptible to drought," the department's report said.
"Grain fed cattle are more emissions intensive, due to increased energy intake and increased concentration of manure in feedlots."
Minerals Council chief executive Tania Constable said addressing climate change required a diverse future energy mix that balances affordability, reliability and emissions reduction.
"This is why a measured response is critical to reducing greenhouse emissions in a way which does not damage the economy, destroy jobs and hurt Australian businesses and families," she said.
Environmental experts have warned that the 26 to 28 per cent reduction target still won't be enough to keep the world from warming by more than 2 degrees by the middle of the century.
Labor will take its policy of a 45 per cent reduction target on 2005 levels by 2030 to the next election.
"It is clear the Liberals are burying their heads in the sand and ignoring the vast majority of Australians who are crying out for desperate action on climate change," said Labor's climate spokesman Mark Butler.
The government claims a 45 per cent target will hurt workers and businesses.
Links
- Australia to miss 2030 emissions targets by vast margin, Coalition's projections reveal
- Australia projected to miss emissions reduction target set out in Paris Agreement
- 'Fake action': Australia's secret path to hitting Paris climate goals
- Australia’s carbon emissions highest on record, data shows
- Australia turns back on allies as it refuses to cut emissions above Paris pledge
- Australia isn't on track to meet its 2030 emissions target, UN report says
- Climate 'culture war' will doom Australia to fail on emissions targets, Labor says
- How Australia bungled climate policy to create a decade of disappointment
- Renewable energy spike led to sharp drop in emissions in Australia, study shows
- Australia's greenhouse gas emissions are rising and forecast to miss 2030 target
- Australia needs two emissions trading schemes, Climate Change Authority says
- This is what happens to Australia if we don’t act
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