Australia's Coal Future Under Threat As More Changes Hit Fossil Fuels Globally

ABC - Daniel Ziffer

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Angela Merkel told students in Tokyo that Germany would be "out of coal in 2038". (AP: Michael Sohn)

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Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia's coal industry.
In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed the country would exit coal power by 2038.
In New South Wales, a court knocked back an application for a new coal mine on the grounds it would increase greenhouse gas emissions at a time when they need to be cut.
Neither will immediately derail the freight train that made Australia $66 billion in export earnings last year, overtaking iron ore as our most valuable traded commodity, but both decisions are a snapshot of large and incremental changes in policy and legislation that are hitting the coal sector.

Key points: Germany wants to exit coal power by 2038, which could have implications for Australian coal producers Renewables last year overtook coal as the key source of energy in the European nation Environmental groups are pushing candidates to outline their position on climate change ahead of the upcoming federal election

"We want to be out of coal in 2038," Chancellor Merkel told students in Tokyo last week, after a government-appointed commission released its 20-year plan to completely shut the coal-fired power plants that currently provide almost half the country's electricity.
"Then we need more gas."

Renewables overtake coal in Germany
Last year, renewables overtook coal as the key source of energy in Europe's largest economy.
The deadline from the industrial superpower demonstrated the accelerating shift to renewable power, according to RMIT energy law expert Anne Kallies.

"This kind of speeds up to transition by about 10 years," she said.

"Ten years longer and the market would have gotten there anyway.
"Just look back at the last summer in Australia — climate change is accelerating, we will probably miss overall international targets of keeping the temperature rise to two degrees [Celsius] and below, so I think this is a signal that we need to speed it up".

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Australian company directors
have started caring about climate change

Australian company directors nominate climate change as the number one issue they want the government to address in the long-term, in a survey of more than 1,200 business leaders.

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Dr Kallies, who is German, said the government commission that made the 2038 decision — and a potential 45 billion euros in support for regions affected to start new industries — was part of a national trait to "hope to plan".
"The Germans have taken a very planned approach to the energy transition which may not be viable for Australia," she said.
"But the overarching signal here is we need to do a lot more a lot faster. A big transition needs hard decisions and possibly a lot of money."

German exit 'significant', but Asia still in play
Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Tania Constable agreed the German decision was "significant", and evidence of a move to forms of power generation that produced lower emissions.

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Banks increase exposure to fossil fuels 

Australia's major banks have been getting back into fossil fuels over the past year, casting doubt on their seriousness in tackling climate change through their investments.

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But while Germany's coal-fired generation currently supplies about 40 per cent of the country's electricity, she said in a statement that in Australia's National Electricity Market, coal power supplies well over 70 per cent of generation, making it the "workhorse of our electricity system".
"Australia needs to focus on what is best for its people and its economy, taking into account our abundance of energy sources including sun, wind, coal, gas and uranium," she said.
Coal Council of Australia chief executive Greg Evans argued that underlying demand remained strong.
"We're on the doorstep of Asia, there's strong demand for our thermal or energy coal and also our metallurgical coal for steel-making," he said.

"Asia is expanding rapidly, they need reliable base-load power, very cheap power, and coal provides that.

"There will always be a place for renewables but, in terms of economic advancement and building industries, it simply going to be about coal — it's the cheapest."

Politics may dictate a shift
Australia is months away from a federal election where senior Liberal Party figures — including Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and former prime minister Tony Abbott — are being threatened by independents who support a rapid shift away from greenhouse-gas-producing fossil fuels like coal.
Even people who cannot vote, but feel passionately about the impact of climate change, are entering the debate.
School student Maiysha Moin helped found "Climate Voices" to amplify the concerns that prompted a strike by thousands of students last year.
"We want the voices of young people to be heard," she said.

"Right now we see a lot of politicians don't represent our vision for the future, especially on climate change, and what we want to do is endorse leaders and candidates who will represent what we believe in and our values."

The new group is vetting the climate change credentials of potential candidates, giving them stamps of approval and offering campaign support in key marginal seats.
"What we need right now is visionary leadership," she said.
"We need our politicians to be brave, step up, take action and listen to what the people have to say instead of standing around and hoping that climate change is going to go away — that's not going to happen."

Links

• 'Hugely significant': Why this judge just ruled against a new mine on climate grounds
• Why Australian company directors have started caring about climate change
• Companies, investors go green to make more money, HSBC says
• Banks increasing exposure to fossil fuels despite promises to fight climate change: report
• 'I've seen smarter cabinets at Ikea': Striking students rally for climate
• Students strike for climate change protests, defying calls to stay in school